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Trend or Mirage


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34 replies to this topic

#1 Travdaddy10

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 05:50 PM

So we are two weeks through the season. So far in my 1 PPR league 20 WR's have scored over 35 points. At the same rate only 9 RB's have over 35 points and that includes Joique Bell, McFadden, and Moreno. Do you think this will continue or is this just one of those random things that happens?

#2 RJRJRJ

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 05:51 PM

Trend. Its becoming a passing league. The more rules thet make to protect to QB, the more it will continue.

#3 NinjaNight

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 05:53 PM

Trend. QBs and WRs are the present and the future.

#4 Stickfig13

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 05:58 PM

Trend. Its becoming a passing league. The more rules thet make to protect to QB, the more it will continue.


Protecting the WR takes the boom out of the defense too

#5 LADY LUCK

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 06:02 PM

Mirage. It's the beginning of the season, good weather. Wait til week 7 and beyond and you'll wish you stacked up on good RBs. They will win you championships every time.

#6 GottaGetTheWin

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 06:21 PM

Absolute trend. I think there are two reasons for this. 1) It's becoming more of a passing league and everyone knows. 2) More leagues are PPR than ever before.

This was something I noticed last year when in all of my leagues the teams at the top of the standings had amazing WRs and terrible RBs.

Two champions in my leagues, in the Super Bowl, one started Vick Ballard and Dexter McCluster. The other Ryan Willams and Brandon Bolden, but they had moster WRs and won easily.

I still think RBs are more valuable because they are way more scarce but WRs are changing fantasy as we know it, and quick.

#7 Iron-cock

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 06:25 PM

Mirage

Regarding your league it is a PPR so you would expect WRs to be more valuable than in standard leagues. In a standard league, the WR's are still doing better in the top 3, but the RBs are competitive. Futhermore some good RB's have been held in check by matchups in the first two weeks.

Also, I would always expect the top 20 WRs to do better than the top 20 RBs because at the lower end of that you have timeshare RBs competing with #1 WRs.

I expect the trend will eventually even out to where it always is, the top 5 RBs will be the most valuable players and likely the high scorers among the WR/RB/TE positions in non PPRs.

Edited by Iron-cock, 17 September 2013 - 06:26 PM.


#8 Armalite

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 06:27 PM

Pretty much all the top backs are utilized in the passing game as well as the rushing game. Even if it's a more pass orientated league they'd benefit from this as well.
20 TEAM PPR IDP LEAGUE, Sex Grossman's Cannon
QB) Joe Flacco, Blake Bortles, Robert Griffin III
RB) Eddie Lacy, Shonn Greene, Bernard Pierce, Ronnie Hillman, Jerrick McKinnon, Lorenzo Taliaferro
WR) Keenan Allen, Torrey Smith, Roddy White, Davante Adams
TE) Jordan Cameron, Larry Donell
K) Blair Walsh
DEF) Houston Texans
DB) Harrison Smith
DL) Marcell Dareus
LB) Paul Worrilow

#9 drgr20

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 06:29 PM

Trend: (1) Passing is generally up, and (2) more teams are using running back by committee and specialists (goal line, third down). Both of those limit the number of stud RBs. At least in PPR, I think the best strategy is to wait on drafting your RB2--get a stud RB that you can depend on round 1, then load up on WRs and a good TE, and stack up RBs with upside in the later rounds.

Edited by drgr20, 17 September 2013 - 06:30 PM.

14 team, 0.5 ppr, 3-0
QB Cutler
RB Sproles
RB J. Bell
WR Nelson
WR White
TE Allen
Flex James Jones
K
Def Chargers (stream)
Bench RB Lynch (BYE), QB Wilson (BYE), WR Mi. Floyd (BYE), RB Turbin (BYE), K Hauschka (BYE), WR Gordon (SSPD)

#10 Ragnaroker

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 06:35 PM

Passing is up and trending that way but I believe it is still too early to jump to any major conclusions. It also has been a down couple of weeks for major RBs such as Ridley, Wilson, MJD, etc.

I think RBs will stabilize to more familiar numbers over the season, but WR value is slightly higher than the past overall.

#11 crazy47larry

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 06:39 PM

This would be a more meaningful question if it applied to standard settings as opposed to PPR. That skews those results greatly toward pass catchers. Still WR is a very boom or bust position. I am sure some of those players who put up those ungodly single game stats will put up borderline useless stats the rest of the way, and even the good ones won't be consistent as they do it.
I play fantasy sports

#12 96mnc

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 06:42 PM

In a full ppr it's a trend.

Otherwise it's a mirage. With the new rules on practice time the running game is hurt the most as offensive lines need more time to gel. Around week 3/4 you'll see running backs pick it up.

#13 Backdoor Slider

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 06:44 PM

Which leads to the next question. PPR was created to even the playing field when RBs were the first 15 picks each year. With the shift to such a passing league, why are we giving WRs more points? Edelman's 13 catches = 2 TDs? Why is anyone still playing PPR?
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#14 Iron-cock

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 06:59 PM

Also intereting, in a standard yahoo league, 4 of the top 5 RBs were projected to be in the top 10.

Only 2 of the top 5 WR's were projected to be in the top 10, and that was in the lower end.

WRs

1. DJAX
2. Cruz
3. Eddie Royal
4. Jordy Nelson
5. Randall Cobb

RBs

1. McCoy
2. AP
3. Lynch
4. Jamaal Charles
5. Reggie Bush

#15 2445ricardo

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 06:59 PM

Which leads to the next question. PPR was created to even the playing field when RBs were the first 15 picks each year. With the shift to such a passing league, why are we giving WRs more points? Edelman's 13 catches = 2 TDs? Why is anyone still playing PPR?


That's why I'm a proponent of giving RBs partial points per carry (about 0.2 per carry) in PPR leagues. It helps narrow that gap in scoring discrepancies.

#16 fredth3cat

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 08:53 PM

Also intereting, in a standard yahoo league, 4 of the top 5 RBs were projected to be in the top 10.

Only 2 of the top 5 WR's were projected to be in the top 10, and that was in the lower end.

WRs

1. DJAX
2. Cruz
3. Eddie Royal
4. Jordy Nelson
5. Randall Cobb

RBs

1. McCoy
2. AP
3. Lynch
4. Jamaal Charles
5. Reggie Bush


It's week 2, man. This isn't much different from checking the top 5 after week 1. Check this out again in week 7 or so and Royal, Cobb, and DJax will probably not be up there.

#17 Iron-cock

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 09:00 PM


Also intereting, in a standard yahoo league, 4 of the top 5 RBs were projected to be in the top 10.

Only 2 of the top 5 WR's were projected to be in the top 10, and that was in the lower end.

WRs

1. DJAX
2. Cruz
3. Eddie Royal
4. Jordy Nelson
5. Randall Cobb

RBs

1. McCoy
2. AP
3. Lynch
4. Jamaal Charles
5. Reggie Bush


It's week 2, man. This isn't much different from checking the top 5 after week 1. Check this out again in week 7 or so and Royal, Cobb, and DJax will probably not be up there.


Oh yeah, I know. It's still interesting especially if we're comparing WR numbers to RB numbers after 2 weeks. I think desean jackson will finish top 5 and Cobb top 10. Jackson will probably be the steal of the draft, even when Vick goes down (we know its coming.)

#18 adifferentlogik

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 09:11 PM

It is definately a trend. With the inclusion of more verticle pass attacks, it is clearly evident. I mean from a business standpoint, and a health standpoint of the players, it makes perfect sense. Running backs have short careers. The average running back's career is three years or less, so teams are not really benefitting much by signing young stud running backs to long term contracts or building their franchise around them. Just look at recent cases such as Chris Johnson, and MJD. The short life span of a running back's prominance makes it hard to build a franchise around them.

On top of that, running backs do not win super bowls. Great defenses, great O-lines, and great quaterbacks, or some combination of the three do.

Also, too the casual fan, passing is more exciting (even though me myself loved watching the likes of Faulk and a good running game).

Time sharing at the running back position provides many advantages to the team and to the backs. It extends their career by lowering their workload at any one time, It allows the offense to be more strategic, and it allows the team to spend money on the more important parts of the team that are pivotal to it's success, such as the O-line, D-line, LB's, Secondary, QB, etc.

Running back is a complimentary position. It is a flashy position, but it's value on average for any single player on any single team is highley overrated. Look at Adrian Peterson, Barry Sanders, etc. Them alone, will have fans, but will not win a championship unless the team is set in the more important, albiet less visible areas

So yes, this is by design. It is the future of the NFL

Edited by adifferentlogik, 17 September 2013 - 09:14 PM.

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#19 Proteus

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 09:18 PM

The Running Back Sluts will always say it's a mirage.

The guys not addicted to drafting running backs in rounds 1-3(4?) will say it's a trend.

This is like Republicans/Democrats and it will not be a conclusive discussion.

Oh and TREND.

My worst team is the one I drafted masquerading as a running back slut.
QB: Ryan Leaf
RB: Lawrence Phillips
RB: Ki-Jana Carter
WR: Charles Rogers
WR: Desmond Howard
TE: David LaFleur
W/R: David Wilson
K: Ray Finkle(Einhorn)
D: Minnie

BN: Andre Ware/Jared Cook/Tony Mandarich/Curtis Enis/Travis Henry/Brian Bosworth/CJ Spiller/Trent Richardson

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#20 LukeIV

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 09:39 PM

It is definately a trend. With the inclusion of more verticle pass attacks, it is clearly evident. I mean from a business standpoint, and a health standpoint of the players, it makes perfect sense. Running backs have short careers. The average running back's career is three years or less, so teams are not really benefitting much by signing young stud running backs to long term contracts or building their franchise around them. Just look at recent cases such as Chris Johnson, and MJD. The short life span of a running back's prominance makes it hard to build a franchise around them.

On top of that, running backs do not win super bowls. Great defenses, great O-lines, and great quaterbacks, or some combination of the three do.

Also, too the casual fan, passing is more exciting (even though me myself loved watching the likes of Faulk and a good running game).

Time sharing at the running back position provides many advantages to the team and to the backs. It extends their career by lowering their workload at any one time, It allows the offense to be more strategic, and it allows the team to spend money on the more important parts of the team that are pivotal to it's success, such as the O-line, D-line, LB's, Secondary, QB, etc.

Running back is a complimentary position. It is a flashy position, but it's value on average for any single player on any single team is highley overrated. Look at Adrian Peterson, Barry Sanders, etc. Them alone, will have fans, but will not win a championship unless the team is set in the more important, albiet less visible areas

So yes, this is by design. It is the future of the NFL


To riff off of this for a second: Most teams run at least 2 to 3 WRs on the average 2nd/3rd down in the NFL. These extra WRs on the field can be used by a savvy o-coordinator to draw attention to, or away from their best WR(s). This can create extra looks for the best WRs or it can open up looks underneath for the others. At some point, assuming the game-plan works, the opposing defense has to respect the chances being created for the lesser WRs or continue to be gashed. This now opens up the best WR.

A RB has very few complimentary pieces to support him, outside of a blocking TE or a FB (currently a rarity in many offenses). While WRs can stretch the field, and offenses can create situational advantages for RBs, even the best RBs can be contained by 6 men in the box and a safety who excels in run support.

ESPN $20 13 Team 2QB, 6 pt passing TD "Gronkey Kong Kuntry" (6-1) Wk2 BYE

QB1: Peyton Manning QB2: Tony Romo
RB1: Marshawn Lynch RB2: A. Ellington RB/WR: Ahmad Bradshaw
WR1: Antonio Brown WR2: Brandin Cooks
TE: Rob Gronkowski
LB: Curtis Lofton DL: JJ Watt DB: Johnathan Cyprien  D/ST: ?
K: Cody Parkey
BE: Lions, Reggie Bush, Allen Robinson, Jeremy Hill, Rueben Randle, Davante Adams, Brandon Weeden, Travis Kelce

Yahoo $20 12 Team 5pt Passing TD, .2 completion, PPR (1-7)

QB1: Tom Brady
RB1: Shane Vereen RB2: Jerick McKinnon WR/RB: Charles Sims
WR1: Pierre Garcon WR2: Allen Robinson
TE: Antonio Gates
K: Justin Tucker D/ST: Kansas City
BE: Reggie Wayne, Jordy Nelson, Eddie Lacy, Andre Williams, Justin Hunter, Lions