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OVERPRICED report


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#1 moped charlie

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 03:41 AM

Hey,

I just joined the forum, hope to contribute in discussions, share info and learn a thing or two along the way. I have just completed a roto draft(8 cat's) and wanted to share my thoughts on who is overpriced right now according to where players are being drafted. I will do another post on undervalued picks as well.

Obviously this info is heavily based on my draft but also could be used as reflection heading into other upcoming drafts to gain a better understanding of player values right now.

JOHN WALL(1)- Some may argue this but for me this is a touch too early. He was drafted ahead of Marc Gasol, Deron Williams, Paul George, Al Jefferson and Derrick Rose. It's a massive call on a first round pick, no doubt he can live upto the billing but not willing to pay first round price to find out.

DAMIAN LILLARD(2)- Naturally due to his sensational rookie campaign he was always going to be picked up early in drafts. I think expectations are too high and he could regress a fraction in his second season as a pro with teams having more data on him. Things could get even more murky when Aldridge is moved.

RICKY RUBIO(2)- I have not been that high on him ever since he was drafted and decided to stay in Europe and hone his game. He just doesn't score that much to warrant this type of early selection when there are better options on the board.

JRUE HOLIDAY(3)- Notice the theme here, all guards. He didn't really prove or show anyone he is worth the type of money he signed for this off-season. To be fair it's a fresh start for him and a chance to prove me wrong. He will have to deal with micro managing coach Monty Williams and a much more stacked roster.

BRANDON JENNINGS(3)- One of my favorite players in the game but just to show I hold no bias. He shot below 40% FG last season should be red flag in itself. He is wonderful complimentary player and should be help the Pistons tremendously if he plays within a team structure. I would probably be happy to get him in round five.

ROY HIBBERT(3)- He will help you in alot of important cat's but seems too early for me here in round three when you can get this type of production much later on in drafts at a discount price.

JOSH SMITH(3)- Can fill up a stat sheet quickly. I just can't live with the poor shooting % he gives you. He will always go around round three but I honestly think it's just a round too soon. Questionable work ethic as well which could be a problem for owners now he has just got paid.

This is just a few early round selections that have been taken too early in my opinion. I have a list of about 20-25 others through round four to ten which i will post soon.

One last thing I also look into is players win shares per 48 mins. Your average player scores around .110 per 48mins. Here is how these players rate from last seasons performance.

WALL .134 (not too bad in an injury riddled season)
LILLARD .088
RUBIO .085
HOLIDAY .055
JENNINGS .096
HIBBERT .129
J.SMITH .075

Lebron had a .322, Durant .291, Harden .206, Paul .287 and Curry .18. All top five picks. I am not saying drafting position should be indicated purely on this but it is something to look at. Check it out.

More soon and feel free to make comments along the way. The hope is to make better informed decisions as owners and avoid costly mistakes in the drafting process, purely and simple right? :)

#2 macunit

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 04:59 AM

Since it's an 8 cat league good PGs are going to be taken higher than normal. It's hard to find assists after the 5th round

#3 moped charlie

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 07:42 AM

I was lucky enough to grab assists in the first four rounds. I guess in this situation for this league it opens up alot opportunities to grab some bargains in mid rounds. I am just about to post some more. I didn't want to focus so much on positions but rather look at individuals whose stock might be too over hyped right now.

Lin, Calderon, Nash and Vasquez easily there after the 5th

#4 thezing1

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 07:51 AM

Win shares don't mean anything in fantasy basketball.
I don't think it is ridiculous to draft Wall ahead of Deron or Rose and I think people who draft late in Round 1 are looking for solid players with upside to compete with those lucky enough to get LBJ and Durant.
I would have liked to get the rest of the guards about a round later. I actually think Jrue will be fine this year since he actually has players to pass to that can make a shot and Vasquez did quite well putting up stats with Monty as his coach. He is still young and developing as well.
There is a huge drop between a guy like Jrue and Nash, IMO. All the guys you list after round 5 have serious question marks and/or flaws in their fantasy games.

#5 moped charlie

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 08:08 AM

BLAKE GRIFFIN(4)- He is being way overpriced here in round four. The FT% hold him back from elite status. He is still raw offensively, still open for improvement but owners banking that it all happens this season in this draft slot.

DAVID LEE(4)- Great hustler who might be an injury risk going forward because of his style of play. In this slot it's just far too early.

DERRICK FAVORS(4)- The hype on him is unreal right now. It's a great opportunity for him now with starters minutes but will this actually translate into value in the fourth? Kanter and Hayward could hinder his value depending on their structure, rookie point guard feeding him the ball clouds things even further.

PAU GASOL(5)- Solid performer who could be worth a fifth pick depending on Kobe situation. To be fair he never got much of an opportunity to play enough with Nash last season so that will be interesting to see if their get a combo going early on.

JAVALE MCGEE(6)- Will Shaw finally get the best out of him? If Karl couldn't then the expectations should be lowered. If he is there in the seventh or eighth that's much more realistic.

winshares

Griffin .196
Lee .15
Favors .117
P.Gasol .107
McGee .163

#6 thezing1

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 08:19 AM

If you drafted Howard I think taking Griffin in the 4th is a great pick.
I would argue that Pau is a steal in the 5th round. He wasn't used properly with Dwight on the team and I think the system fits his skill set perfectly.
DLee was ranked #24 on BBM last year...he doesn't get the defensive stats I look for in bigs, but he is going to go around the 4th round because the dude is really good in 8-cat.

#7 moped charlie

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 08:27 AM

I get why owners are reaching for Wall late in the first to try and compete with top five picks. It's not a perfect science, either you do reach early to secure him if you really value him or you could try to get him at the top of the second round and go after someone like Rose or Deron and get a two for one situation. Both ways are gambling but to me it's more risky to draft him flat out in the first.

Wins shares is just a guide I use. I don't want people to depend on them in fantasy ball, it's just interesting for me to compare players this way.

#8 moped charlie

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 09:23 AM

MONTA ELLIS(5)- He got his money and escaped Milwaukee finally to play second fiddle to Dirk at the mavs. I eventually see him being the impact player from the bench. He should be picked much later than this.

PAUL PIERCE(6)- Obviously with the move to the Nets it should be altering his stock somewhat. In this slot it does not appear to be the case. Another name being typically drafted too soon. He will have vintage nights still. I would feel more comfortable if he fell to the seventh or eighth.

GORDON HAYWARD(6)- He averaged decent minutes last season so I doubt that there is much room for improvement. It's opened up for him sure but how their structure all works and how it all fits together is another thing, could be further growing pains. Would much prefer to consider him in the next round.

TREY BURKE(6)- Ok so you missed out on some top point guards at the top of the draft. I think he is especially over hyped due to Lillard great rookie season and the expectation could be too great for him. Was not overly impressive in summer league. He won't have your veteran shoulder to lean on either.

VICTOR OLIPADO(7)- He will eventually start once Jameer is dealt. If you want rookies you just  have to over pay for them and that is a situation you should try to avoid. Keep in mind this draft is considered one of the worst ones for awhile and light years comparing to next seasons draft.

NICKOLA PEKOVIC(7)- He got his money. Love is back. Bad combination for fantasy owners. He is solid but not someone I envision to be your primary low post option. Would be better served as third or fourth option ideally so if you drafted that way earlier in your drafts and he is available real late it maybe worth it.

winshares
ELLIS .071
PIERCE .135
HAYWARD .123
PEKOVIC .163

#9 Dynasty999

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 09:51 AM

Pau Gasol would be an absolute steal in the 5th round not overpriced....

RWB is overpriced, he goes ahead of CP3 and others a lot when he's late 1st round material. I'd be curious to see the squads who won their league with RWB as their first pick, I bet it's a really low % compared to other 1st round picks

#10 Denbo32

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 11:28 AM

View Postmoped charlie, on 27 September 2013 - 07:42 AM, said:

I was lucky enough to grab assists in the first four rounds. I guess in this situation for this league it opens up alot opportunities to grab some bargains in mid rounds. I am just about to post some more. I didn't want to focus so much on positions but rather look at individuals whose stock might be too over hyped right now.

Lin, Calderon, Nash and Vasquez easily there after the 5th

That's because none of those outside of Calderon will produce 7th round value

#11 Dynasty999

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 12:55 PM

Yeah all those guys are big time spew in the 6th or 7th round

#12 moped charlie

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 08:26 PM

JAMEER NELSON(8)- He probably gets dealt to a contender at the deadline. He would be great option as 4th or 5th guard to round out your roster but don't rely on him to give you much value in this slot.

BRANDON KNIGHT(8)- Make or break season for him and seems to be going too early in drafts. I have my doubts also that he is in fact a starting point guard long-term. This could seriously alter his value.

GERALD HENDERSON(8)- He finished nicely last season and with Jefferson in town will get good spacing on the court. Ideal situation would be in round ten but that simply does not look possible right now, which is a shame.

ANDREW BOGUT(9)- He should not be picked in the first ten rounds with his injury history. Definitely can not be relied upon as one of your starting centers, no matter how much the Warriors talk him up in training camp. No, don't do it.

winshares
Nelson .05
Knight .022
Henderson .073
Bogut .109(career)

#13 moped charlie

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 08:39 PM

So far good feedback. I appreciate it. It's all about having a solid mock heading into a draft to know where players might be or could be to benefit you.

I will leave Wall as borderline 1st for now. I know alot of us don't get the opportunity to get Durant or Lebron in our leagues so we need some sort of gamble option. He certainly could be the one if he plays a full season out.

I am not sold on Holiday but will leave him late third round but honestly he is going too soon. No doubting his ability and improved options it's just a gut feeling right now. He is slipping in a few drafts so somewhere between around fourth or fifth seems right.

I may move Gasol up to the fourth on my next mock. The general consensus is he will probably have a nice season. Too early for me but if I see him in the sixth might jump in.

#14 Dominican Power

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 08:59 PM

Paul George should be added to the list.

#15 moped charlie

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 09:09 PM

Was just thinking about him as well, now that he has signed a new deal. I really think they will get plenty of burn out of Granger if he fully right and trade him at the deadline. They went deep last season in the playoffs without him so it makes sense.

George value could hold up because of this that is why he was not on the list. He is one that seemed to be borderline first but have noticed he is sliding down alittle in most drafts to the second which is probably a more accurate true reflection right now.

#16 gungho

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 10:25 PM

I don't have anything to contribute but would like to say excellent work with the evaluations and please continue =)

What do you think of Marc Gasol this season? I read he will be playing reduced minutes.

Thanks
PG: G. Dragic, K. Lowry, V. Oladipo
SG: G. Hayward, L. Stephenson
SF:   K. Leonard
PF:   K. Love, P. Millsap, D. West
  C:   M. Gasol, T. Chandler, R. Lopez

#17 moped charlie

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 10:49 PM

Thanks gungho.

Marc Gasol went with the tenth pick in my draft. I had him in my mock at around the eleventh pick and obvious choice for first center taken in almost every draft but have noticed his stock is dipping, which is not a good sign.

Al Jefferson and Horford have been moving up. Depends on your plan for draft and how you want to attack it. Other centers such as Noah and Duncan their stock is also in freefall(Noah could be minutes restrictions, Duncan just age factor).

To be honest did not here that Marc Gasol would be on minutes restrictions. I heard they plan on playing a more uptempo style with their new coach. His winshares is .197 which is very good. In comparison Jefferson .143 and Horford .153.

It's a real tough call on your first center option but because everyone seems to be overbuying guards right now most centers value is sliding alittle which means there could be good value in mid rounds to pick one up then.

#18 gungho

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 11:07 PM

Unfortunately i have the 12th pick in an upcoming draft so i'm seriously considering Gasol provided he falls to me.

I don't remember where i read it but with the addition of Koufos, Gasol won't be playing as many minutes as last season.
PG: G. Dragic, K. Lowry, V. Oladipo
SG: G. Hayward, L. Stephenson
SF:   K. Leonard
PF:   K. Love, P. Millsap, D. West
  C:   M. Gasol, T. Chandler, R. Lopez

#19 moped charlie

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 12:07 AM

He could still be there for you at twelve. If you plan on center first both Jefferson and Horford would be solid options for you. Carmelo and George could be alright. Kevin Love could fall to you as well, if he has center eligibility.  In my draft it was George and Jefferson at twelve and thirteen pick.

I would not reach for someone like Rubio or Lillard if you go for a guard. That's just me though.

#20 deathrazor

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 08:18 AM

Wow thanks for this post, its a great help.. Would just like to know your opinion if its alright, seeing that you already had a lot of mocks..
For the 10th pick in a h2h, would you rather take melo/batum/gasol/horford/aljeff? Or are they overvalued for the 10th pick? :)

Edited by deathrazor, 28 September 2013 - 08:19 AM.





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