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UNDERVALUED report


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#1 moped charlie

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 09:55 PM

Hey,

Going to start a new thread for the players sliding down drafts that could be good value for us. Appreciate the feedback and thoughts, both positive or negative.

PAUL MILLSAP(4)- Great opportunity for him now at the Hawks and if you get him in the fourth you have done well. One could argue he is much better than Josh Smith who is going in the third. He can fill a stat sheet just as well as Josh and is much better defensively, so he gets plenty of burn that way.

ERSAN ILYASOVA(6)- I understand why he is slipping due to inconsistent play at the beginning of last season. He was one of the most dropped players when he was sent to the bench. The owners who held firm and kept him for the season reaped the rewards for being patient with him. Do not let him slide too far in your draft. This season is much better situation for him now both Jennings and Ellis have left. Sanders and Henson are not good offensive players so he has to be a high usage option now.

THAD YOUNG(6)- Not entirely sold on him because off his poor FT% last season but with the Moultrie news and roster depth at the Sixers he has to be one moving up the boards. Word is he is on the trade block so that dampens his stock somewhat. The Sixers just don't have many options and he will become high usage player, seems too low round six.

TOBAIS HARRIS(7)- It's alittle difficult to get a read on him because there is only a small subset of numbers for you to look at. If Favors is being drafted in the fourth he has to be considered at around the fifth, that is my take on it. Glen Baby Davis will be non factor this season. Word is they are tired of Davis and will deal him as soon as they are able to. The don't want Davis to be a high usage player for them anymore and want to see what their front court prospects can do for them as starters.

AMIR JOHNSON(8)- This was probably one of the best pick ups in the first ten rounds in my draft. I was hoping he fell to me but was not to be. If you can get your head around the points he just does so many other things that help you. So as long as you have high usage and solid production early on you should consider him in the fifth or sixth at least.

winshares
Millsap .154
Ilyasova .159
Young .136
Harris .089
A.Johnson .151

More to follow
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#2 CrypTviLL

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 05:22 AM

Thanks for this, it's quite interesting.
[ Ƥəɨɳ ]
QB Aaron Rodgers
WR Brandon Marshall
WR A.J. Green
WR Dez Bryant
RB Matt Forte
RB Jamaal Charles
TE Rob Gronkowski
K Matt Prater
DEF Streaming
Bench: Cecil Shorts III, Steven Ridley, Harry Douglas, Le'Veon Bell, Zac Stacy, Danny Amendola

#3 christian

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 02:13 PM

In ESPN leagues at least, I'd add Eric Bledsoe and Enes Kanter. ESPN has them ranked in the low 100s!!!!. And probably Derrick Favors as well, who is ranked in the 90s. Drafting with a bunch of first-timers on ESPN makes it easy to grab them at a huge discount.

MFFL. 5 years of fantasy basketball experience.
12-team H2H dynasty, 8-cat, 3 IR, ESPN (LM) [since 2011-12] *2014 CHAMPION: 3-peat
G Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, Goran Dragic, Rajon Rondo, Jamal Crawford, Elfrid Payton, P.J. Tucker, Norris Cole (IR)
F Paul Millsap, Serge Ibaka, Gordon Hayward, Nicolas Batum, Ryan Anderson, Mirza Teletovic, Perry Jones (IR)
C Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Pau Gasol (IR), Steven Adams, Kris Humphries, Mason Plumlee, Tiago Splitter (IR)
20-team H2H keeper (5), 8-cat., 1 IR, ESPN [since 2011-12] *2014 CHAMPION, 2013 runner-up
G Ty Lawson, George Hill (IR), J.R. Smith, Donald Sloan, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

F LeBron James, Paul Millsap, Mirza Teletovic, Andre Iguodala, Josh McRoberts

C Serge Ibaka, Robin Lopez

14-team H2H keeper (5), 9 cat., Yahoo! [new] *Drafted (offline) July 2014, eighth pick in snake draft

G Brandon Knight, Jose Calderon, Jamal Crawford, Evan Fournier, Isaiah Canaan, Aaron Brooks, Patrick Beverley
F Chris Bosh, Paul Pierce, DeMarre Carroll, Paul George
C Al Horford, Brook Lopez

30-team H2H points dynasty, 2 IR, ESPN [new] *Started w/ Mavs pre-free agency roster (Ellis, Calderon, Dalembert, Wright, Ledo, Mekel)
G Mo Williams, Bojan Bogdanovic, Steve Blake, Shaun Livingston, Jordan Farmar, Ray McCallum, Nick Calathes
F Dwight Howard (IR), P.J. Tucker, Terrence Ross, Patrick Patterson, Nikola Mirotic, Ryan Kelly (IR)
C Brook Lopez, Gorgui Dieng, Chris Kaman


#4 basketballvideos32

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 03:46 PM

Corey Brewer
With Chase Budinger out, the SF spot in Minny comes down to Shabazz and Brewer. I think Shabazz will probably come off the bench and needs some time to adjust to the NBA game. That leaves Brewer with the starting spot in Minny. Last year he got better than average steals and a three a game. He also has the potential to increase his scoring and percentages, with all the playing time he will get.

Darren Collison
Darren Collison thrived as CP3's back up during his rookie year in NOLA (12 pts, 6 ast, 1 stl per game). I excpect him to not only reach that, but to possibly exceed that. If CP3 were to be rested or injured, Collison may be able to step in and thrive (i.e Bledsoe).
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My team
13 team roto (FG%, FT%, 3PM, AST, STL, REB, BLK, PTS)

PG - Stephen Curry
SG - Lance Stephenson
SF - Kawhi Leonard
PF - Dirk Nowitzki
C - Brook Lopez
G - Kyle Lowry

F - Derrick Favors
UTIL - Roy Hibbert
UTIL - Jose Calderon
UTIL - Markieff Morris


#5 Now_I_Know

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 04:23 PM

Kobe Bryant - still gunna put up first round value

Andrew Bynum - gunna fall steep, but the gamble will pay off to whoever selected him

Nick Young - d'antoni system

Kevin Love - was arguably a 1st overall before the injury..i see him going back to that this year

Brook Lopez - a second rounder going late in third rounds

Jrue Holiday - being drafted in round 6, should be no more than round 4, with an unlimited ceiling

Kyle Lowry - isn't this the same guy that was putting up 1st round numbers before getting injured? i'm banking on him finally staying healthy.

Enes Kanter

Andre Drummond

Eric Gordon

Joe Johnson

Amare Stoudemire

Anderson Varaejo

Gerald Wallace

Brandon Knight
------------------------------------------
Yahoo! 12-Team H2H Standard Cat League:
------------------------------------------
PG Kyle Lowry...Trey Burke/Jrue Holiday*
SG Stephen Curry...Kobe Bryant*

SF Josh Smith...Gordan Hayward/Tobias Harris
PF Jared Sullinger...John Henson*

C Nikola Vucevic...Andrew Bogut*/Nikola Pekovic*
------------------------------------------
Yahoo! 8-Team H2H FG% FT% 3PM PTS REB AST ST BLK DD League:
------------------------------------------   
PG Deron Williams...Kyle Lowry/Mike Conley*
SG Goran Dragic...Kobe Bryant*
SF Chandler Parson...
Ersan Ilyasova/Kevin Martin*
PF Kevin Love...Serge Ibaka/John Henson*
C Blake Griffin...Jonas Valuncunius/Anderson Varejo*

#6 moped charlie

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 05:16 PM

That's good guys, throw some name out there. Good work. I will make some comments about these players mentioned soon.

Christian both Bledsoe and Favors are going in the fourth or fifth rounds. If you are drafting in that round and like either of them you should probably take them. You can try and let them slide further but big risk right now because they have been marked up alot.

I will be doing another post once we get through players in the first ten rounds that are undervalued. In that post I want to talk about players being drafted outside of the top ten rounds who really should be among the first hundred picked. Corey Brewer is a name that is moving up lists now and he will definitely be in that post. He was drafted round sixteen, that was before news on Budinger.

I will respond to all these players fully and give my thoughts on them soon. I just wanted to discuss a few others first.

#7 ballsohard

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 05:24 PM

Thanks for all your input, but I'm curious why you keep bringing up win shares, probably one of the most useless stats ever.
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#8 moped charlie

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 05:30 PM

KAWAI LEONARD(5)- I think this is stealing in this round. When the Spurs moved up to draft him everyone should have taken note, because they just never do that unless it's a can't miss opportunity. I would happily select him as my first forward picked in any draft. Duncan is going to struggle now on back to backs(might not play any of them) which helps him fill out more stat sheets.

KEVIN MARTIN(8)- He is one player I have kept moving up the boards. I got him in the seventh now and that still might be too low with injury news on Budinger. Alot of people still think of him as injury prone but he has improved in that regard because he is no longer the primary option. He will really love playing alongside Rubio(pass first point) and great passing big men Kevin Love. The time has come, everyone needs to reconsider him.

winshares
Leonard .166
Martin .157

Edited by moped charlie, 28 September 2013 - 05:32 PM.


#9 moped charlie

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 05:34 PM

It's no worries ballhard. thanks for your comments. I know win shares is not for everyone. I like to look at them to compare players. They are not really to be used fantasy ball. You can disregard them.

#10 Denbo32

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 07:47 PM

Your drafts are odd, I seeleonard being drafted top 30 every time how is he falling to 5th?

#11 bjav4282

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 09:23 PM

Your drafts are odd, I seeleonard being drafted top 30 every time how is he falling to 5th?


The ESPN rankings are ripe for the picking IF you play with guys who don't follow sites like this one or BBM. I did a few public league drafts for fun and you would not believe the rosters I was able to get because everyone goes purely off the rankings and is afraid to "reach" for guys.

#12 moped charlie

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Posted 29 September 2013 - 03:46 AM

Leonard is going fourth or fifth round and thats money leagues.

#13 moped charlie

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Posted 29 September 2013 - 07:09 AM

I will make some comments on those players Now I know has mentioned.

Kobe is such a gamer he really wants to be there in game one but there is no timetable still and just not sure the Lakers want to push him so early in the season when it could be much more beneficial to have him primed later on. He is going mid round three.

Bynum stock is in freefall, not many owners want to take the risk.I probably would if my center situation is stacked and he can be my third or fourth option to start the season.

I have not mentioned him in this report yet was getting to him but Brook Lopez is going in the fourth round which seems like a great value pick. Garnett won't play back to backs. My only knock on him is for a player his size he just doesn't get the rebound numbers you might crave for your starting center. Solid pick though in the fourth.

Lowry stock is on the rise and he would be a nice little pick up in round six if you can get him there but it's highly doubtful he gets that low now. Would be really great as your third string guard, solid pick if he falls to you.

Drummond is pretty hyped right now in the fifth mostly. He will get starts at center but the hideous FT% will kill you. Can only be selected that high if you punting FT%. In eight cat it's pretty hard to punt cat's. He won't play much in the fourth quarters which also hinders his stock.

#14 Kemmyn

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Posted 29 September 2013 - 05:55 PM

the first rotoworld mock draft has been posted and they drafted nearly all the guys listed in your op by at least a round or two. It's knowing your league, if you are in a league with experienced fantasy players then it's very hard to sleep on the undervalued as someone out there does value them.

I won't be targeting Bynum in any leagues though would consider Kobe if he fell to the third but someone would take him before that in most the leagues i draft in.

#15 moped charlie

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 01:10 AM

I get that. What I am saying is some of those players are going too high, just my opinion. If that's where those players are going in 90% drafts then thats where they stay on my mock board, because I want it as realistic as possible even if I do not genuinely believe that player should go there.

I know someone will get Lillard in the second round, because 99 times out 100 thats where he goes probably. I would be in the 1% bracket I guess. If you draft him you still get your value but to me would prefer look elsewhere.

Kobe probably should go higher if someone has the patience early on. He should not be going any lower then the third.

#16 KennyUrata

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 01:23 AM

Leonard is going fourth or fifth round and thats money leagues.


8 cat?

#17 KennyUrata

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 01:24 AM

I get that. What I am saying is some of those players are going too high, just my opinion. If that's where those players are going in 90% drafts then thats where they stay on my mock board, because I want it as realistic as possible even if I do not genuinely believe that player should go there.

I know someone will get Lillard in the second round, because 99 times out 100 thats where he goes probably. I would be in the 1% bracket I guess. If you draft him you still get your value but to me would prefer look elsewhere.

Kobe probably should go higher if someone has the patience early on. He should not be going any lower then the third.


Not true, I would say about 10% of my mocks so far Lillard has been taken 2nd round.

In public drafts, rankings play a huge part in where people are drafting players. Rubio for example is going high 3rd round.

#18 moped charlie

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 04:47 AM

8 cat, yes. Only 10% thats a surprise. Every league I have seen him in the second round.

Rubio is going second round mostly. In that mock Lillard went first pick in the third so close enough. He is in the top thirty players picked.

#19 jorgo

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 06:52 AM

My undervalued list:
- Paul Millsap: I really think he'll return top 15 value.
- Dirk Nowitzki: Borderline first round numbers. Very safe pick mid-late 2nd round.
- Chandler Parsons: Ryan Anderson circa 11-12
- Ty Lawson: Denver going to push tempo even more, and no Iggy. Top 20.
- Wilson Chandler: See above. Can't rely on Foye, Faried and McGee for major offensive production.
- Mike Conley: The quiet achiever. Just gets it done and is perennially underrated.
- Derrick Favors: FTs hurt, but the rest will be big.
- Andre Iguodala: Expecting a rebound year with more 3s and 6+ assists with Curry and Thompson to pass to.
- Marcin Gortat: Will produce big numbers in Phoenix if he doesn't get traded.
- Gordon Hayward: Solid all-round contributor.
- Anderson Varejao: Question marks over Bynum again. Will produce great numbers UNTIL he breaks down.
- Robin Lopez: If JJ Hickson can do it, so can RoLo.
- Spencer Hawes: Has to get 33+ minutes, and will be relied upon to carry the team. Mini-PauGasol.
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#20 KillaPetehog

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 11:30 AM

This thread is sort of like another Sleepers thread, I think.

That being said, here's who I like:

Marcus Thornton: Not too long ago, he had career averages of:

14.5, 1.6 threes, 45% G, 81.4 FT%
21.3 PTS 2.0 threes, 3.4 assists, 1.7 steals
18.7 pts, 2.1 threes, 1.4 steals

Last year was terrible.
12.7 points, 2.0 threes 0.8 threes

But read between the lines and you'll see that his low performance was due to a lack of minutes and not performance. Keith Smart does that. Well. There is no Keith Smart. And although Ben Mclemore is seriously talented, I don't picture Marcus rolling the red carpet. I think he's going to produce much better than last season. Heck, even if he just has 2 more points this season...That's an improvement. I'm predicting 15 ish points at the very least.

SGs and SFs are thin this year. Most SGs and SFs are either a bit too old or are stacked on another team. Heck...we lost three because Terry, Paul Pierce and Joe Johnson are on the same damn team. So Thornton should pay dividends. He'll get way better numbers for sure and he's one of very SGs available.

Jose Calderon - He may have a pretty good chance of leading the league in assists this year. This is the best team he's been on. Instead of passing to Bargnani, he's now passing to Dirk Nowitzki. He can also dish the ball to Marion, Carter, Ellis, Blair, etc.

Favors - It's been mentioned before but this is the year. I'm expecting Marc Gasol numbers.

Eric Gordon (ROTO LEAGUE only) - I'm the only one who believes in this guy but I've got a feeling I'll have the last laugh. He's worth only a stash in Roto leagues.

Gortat- I'm big on this guy too. Contract year. He knows it. There's no Jermaine O Neal, no Scola, no Beasley (black hole). He's just competing with Alex Len..who is a rookie and is already having fracture issues as well as Frye (who was out for a while). Keep in mind that last year Gortat was just mopey and unhappy about a lot of things but now he has desire and drive. He'll either play hard to get an extension or play hard to get the F out of Phoenix and show everyone he's still around.

Burke: I really, really like this kid. The ONLY Pg in Utah. If you're in a keeper league, he's been compared to Kemba Walker but with superior shooting and FG%, Jameer Nelson at prime, a poor man's CP3. He won't be Irving or CP3 or anything of the sort but historically..PGs with no competition tend to thrive.

Nene: I think he'll have a great year.

Edited by KillaPetehog, 01 October 2013 - 11:35 AM.





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