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Bryce Harper 2014 Outlook


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#1 jspeco9

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Posted 14 October 2013 - 02:24 PM

Obviously my favorite player, so may sound a little biased. In 118 games (424 ABs) he went 20/11 with .274/.368/.486. Will he improve?

Also, hit 18 of his 20 HRs vs. right handed pitchers, while slashing .300/388. Only 2 HRs vs lefties while slashing .214/.327. What do you guys think?

#2 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 14 October 2013 - 02:27 PM

If he can stay healthy, he should have a big season. If not, I would expect more of the same.
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#3 parrothead

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 12:53 PM

View Postjspeco9, on 14 October 2013 - 02:24 PM, said:

Obviously my favorite player, so may sound a little biased. In 118 games (424 ABs) he went 20/11 with .274/.368/.486. Will he improve?

Also, hit 18 of his 20 HRs vs. right handed pitchers, while slashing .300/388. Only 2 HRs vs lefties while slashing .214/.327. What do you guys think?
He hit 9 of his HR in April, he is Jean Segura of Outfielders, had one career month, .344 with 9HR.

A lot of that is toungue and cheek of course, this guy has a tremendous amount of talent, but I agree with Clutch, if his game is such that he is always getting hurt or dinged up he isnt much good to you on the DL or day to day not on the DL.  He need to get his 550 at bats and see what he can do.  The Lefty thing is pretty typical of power hitting left handers, especially young ones, but often case is career long its why teams in the playoffs want that lefty in the pen for those key match ups against a teams best LH hitters late in the game.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#4 MySoxrRed

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 07:57 AM

He will be fine. He'll come back healthier and I bet physically stronger. Yes he had 9 home runs in April then had injury issues all year. His power ability and ceiling is still high. In my 4 keeper league he will be on my team next year with confidence.
NFL Team  - 14 Team Standard Auction .5 ppr
QB:Luck, Dalton
RB: Forte (K),Vereen, J. Hill, Taliaferro
WR:Jeffery. T. Williams, R. Randle, T. Austin, Streeter
TE: J. Thomas, Allen
K: Succop
DEF:Saints
DP:A. Cason, Sio Moore, Morgan Burnett

#5 parrothead

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 12:39 PM

View PostMySoxrRed, on 16 October 2013 - 07:57 AM, said:

He will be fine. He'll come back healthier and I bet physically stronger. Yes he had 9 home runs in April then had injury issues all year. His power ability and ceiling is still high. In my 4 keeper league he will be on my team next year with confidence.
He is one of my keepers too, a no brainer at $3, just want to see the potential turn to season long production.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#6 klove42

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 01:08 PM

I was surprised to see him just stop stealing bases though. I think that plays a big part of his fantasy value. I can't really guess on his run/rbi production right now because it is a little early, but if he is a .285 80 30 80 10 player where does that rank him? Third round?
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#7 MySoxrRed

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 02:03 PM

View Postparrothead, on 16 October 2013 - 12:39 PM, said:

View PostMySoxrRed, on 16 October 2013 - 07:57 AM, said:

He will be fine. He'll come back healthier and I bet physically stronger. Yes he had 9 home runs in April then had injury issues all year. His power ability and ceiling is still high. In my 4 keeper league he will be on my team next year with confidence.
He is one of my keepers too, a no brainer at $3, just want to see the potential turn to season long production.

Yah I am keeping him at $7 so I expect to get much higher production than $7 worth. He needs to stop taking stupid risks in the field and focus on his hitting. As for his stolen bases. I think his injuries and maybe the front office/manager played a role?
NFL Team  - 14 Team Standard Auction .5 ppr
QB:Luck, Dalton
RB: Forte (K),Vereen, J. Hill, Taliaferro
WR:Jeffery. T. Williams, R. Randle, T. Austin, Streeter
TE: J. Thomas, Allen
K: Succop
DEF:Saints
DP:A. Cason, Sio Moore, Morgan Burnett

#8 jspeco9

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 04:20 PM

View Postklove42, on 16 October 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

I was surprised to see him just stop stealing bases though. I think that plays a big part of his fantasy value. I can't really guess on his run/rbi production right now because it is a little early, but if he is a .285 80 30 80 10 player where does that rank him? Third round?

CarGo is a .300 90 25 80 20 player and somehow always goes top 6 pick. With those number, Harper has to be an early second rounder for sure.

#9 FearTheBeard

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 09:09 PM

I love the talent, the potential, but I hate the fact you gotta pay for what you think Harper can do on draft day.

Bryce Harper just turned 21 years old, I know it's a clown question but that's crazy to think the dude could have bought his first legal beer 6 days ago. From a hitting development standpoint I don't see any glaring concerns that more experience won't cure. I love the fact Harper is willing to take a free pass(12.3 BB%) but maintain a very aggressive approach(34.1% O-Swing, 74.8% Z Swing). I'd enjoy seeing that O-Swing% closer to the 30% league average, but I think that will happen as he gets better at hitting LHP - whom he chases Vs often. Harper is also one of the league leaders in hitters that see the most off speed stuff. You just can't teach the hands, eye, bat speed, and pure torque his swing creates - so much god given talent.

Unfortunately, as much as I love his talent, I don't like his prospects of staying on the field for 150+ games which really kills it for me. For a 21 year old, that kid has a ton of mileage on those legs - he's been in the year round baseball circus since he could walk, and for god sake - how many 16 year old baseball players get a SI cover? What concerns me the most isn't his all out style. My concern is the amount of swelling and pain secondary to inflammation and bursitis he had this season in his left knee and hip. The hope is resting the month of October will cause it do be a done issue, but I'm not buying it. I also don't think surgery is the answer unless he actually damages something. This main issue here is the amount of torque he puts on his lower half, especially his left leg during his swing. I don't see this problem going away until he makes some sort of an adjustment.

It may be just talk, but Harper being quoted that his offseason goal was to become "as big as a house" I don't like hearing. Bryce is plenty strong, plenty explosive. If anything he certainly doesn't come across as the most agile dude on the field. Probably focusing more on sport specific functional movements, and doing yoga would do him more good, and those are helpful for preventing injury. Getting yoked and strong as hell can open you up to a lot of injury potential.

So in summary, I have no concern with the talent or development, but way to much concern in regards to what his swing does to his hip/knee to make him an early/mid 2nd rounder.

Edited by FearTheBeard, 16 October 2013 - 09:10 PM.


#10 FearTheBeard

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 09:19 PM

View Postjspeco9, on 16 October 2013 - 04:20 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 16 October 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

I was surprised to see him just stop stealing bases though. I think that plays a big part of his fantasy value. I can't really guess on his run/rbi production right now because it is a little early, but if he is a .285 80 30 80 10 player where does that rank him? Third round?

CarGo is a .300 90 25 80 20 player and somehow always goes top 6 pick. With those number, Harper has to be an early second rounder for sure.

While I fully agree with you Bryce Harper will be a early/mid 2nd round pick based on his talent/name, I don't agree with your comparison/reasoning.

CarGo does that over 120-125 games(give or take a few here and there over the last 3 seasons). Owners take him in the mid 1st round knowing he'll provide those numbers as a minimum and cross their fingers they're lucky enough to be that owner who gets 150 games outta CarGo. Harper won't sniff .300 til he can show he can be productive Vs LHP, and his SB future is a very big question mark.

#11 BigPapi44

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 09:48 PM

I tend to agree with FTB.  Considering Harper's age, his knee/joint/hip issues, as well as balls out style, do cause concern about his health over a 162 game season.   I don't think I would shy away from drafting him, because of the talent and upside, but it wouldn't surprise me if he misses chunks of time over the season.  I would be happy with a 135+ games from him.

#12 parrothead

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 01:26 PM

View PostFearTheBeard, on 16 October 2013 - 09:09 PM, said:

I love the talent, the potential, but I hate the fact you gotta pay for what you think Harper can do on draft day.

Bryce Harper just turned 21 years old, I know it's a clown question but that's crazy to think the dude could have bought his first legal beer 6 days ago. From a hitting development standpoint I don't see any glaring concerns that more experience won't cure. I love the fact Harper is willing to take a free pass(12.3 BB%) but maintain a very aggressive approach(34.1% O-Swing, 74.8% Z Swing). I'd enjoy seeing that O-Swing% closer to the 30% league average, but I think that will happen as he gets better at hitting LHP - whom he chases Vs often. Harper is also one of the league leaders in hitters that see the most off speed stuff. You just can't teach the hands, eye, bat speed, and pure torque his swing creates - so much god given talent.

Unfortunately, as much as I love his talent, I don't like his prospects of staying on the field for 150+ games which really kills it for me. For a 21 year old, that kid has a ton of mileage on those legs - he's been in the year round baseball circus since he could walk, and for god sake - how many 16 year old baseball players get a SI cover? What concerns me the most isn't his all out style. My concern is the amount of swelling and pain secondary to inflammation and bursitis he had this season in his left knee and hip. The hope is resting the month of October will cause it do be a done issue, but I'm not buying it. I also don't think surgery is the answer unless he actually damages something. This main issue here is the amount of torque he puts on his lower half, especially his left leg during his swing. I don't see this problem going away until he makes some sort of an adjustment.

It may be just talk, but Harper being quoted that his offseason goal was to become "as big as a house" I don't like hearing. Bryce is plenty strong, plenty explosive. If anything he certainly doesn't come across as the most agile dude on the field. Probably focusing more on sport specific functional movements, and doing yoga would do him more good, and those are helpful for preventing injury. Getting yoked and strong as hell can open you up to a lot of injury potential.

So in summary, I have no concern with the talent or development, but way to much concern in regards to what his swing does to his hip/knee to make him an early/mid 2nd rounder.
I agree with a lot of this, especially for those in re-draft leagues or leagues where he is on the open market in 2014.  He is a mancrush magnet, which means even though he disappointed a lot of owners last year, especially those who by late March were moving his ADP to almost the end of the 1st round, by next March, there will be those ready to do it again.

* If I were in a re-draft 260 Auction, my first call might be $38 Bryce Harper, and let the mancrushers overpay a bit, you know one person is going $39.  

* If I am in a snake draft, I probably dont want any part of this guy.

Success in drafts relies a lot on getting good value, I just think that Harper's hype and mancrush appeal probably deprive him of what value could potentially be there.  If it were a normal player, coming off an injury year, who disappointed his ADP level, we would probably be talking about a bounceback value candidate, but that will not apply to Harper IMO.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#13 mevins31

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 06:58 AM

Does not deserve the hype & intrigue of a 2014 thread already. So many guys are worth being on your team, while Harper isn't worth the headache. Sure he *could* hit 40 HR and have video game numbers because of the hype and what scouts said and all that, but he's hurt constantly, needs to mature, and wasn't that good on the field other than a good April. I think he plays in 120-130 next year best case scenario he misses a month and change. There are better young players in this game to fawn about and to own on your roster (Trout, Puig, Machado etc)
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#14 mevins31

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Posted 19 October 2013 - 08:04 AM

View Post9703, on 18 October 2013 - 08:49 AM, said:

View Postmevins31, on 18 October 2013 - 06:58 AM, said:

Does not deserve the hype & intrigue of a 2014 thread already. So many guys are worth being on your team, while Harper isn't worth the headache. Sure he *could* hit 40 HR and have video game numbers because of the hype and what scouts said and all that, but he's hurt constantly, needs to mature, and wasn't that good on the field other than a good April. I think he plays in 120-130 next year best case scenario he misses a month and change. There are better young players in this game to fawn about and to own on your roster (Trout, Puig, Machado etc)

I'll take Harper over Puig and Machado, thanks.

People would be having wet dreams if Harper had posted a season like Puig did as a rookie, I'm sorry but that's true. I'm a huge Harper guy, but Puig is better and he actually plays every day and limps into the lineup, whereas Harper seems to find a reason to miss time every week or so
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#15 Backdoor Slider

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Posted 19 October 2013 - 03:50 PM

View Postmevins31, on 19 October 2013 - 08:04 AM, said:

View Post9703, on 18 October 2013 - 08:49 AM, said:

View Postmevins31, on 18 October 2013 - 06:58 AM, said:

Does not deserve the hype & intrigue of a 2014 thread already. So many guys are worth being on your team, while Harper isn't worth the headache. Sure he *could* hit 40 HR and have video game numbers because of the hype and what scouts said and all that, but he's hurt constantly, needs to mature, and wasn't that good on the field other than a good April. I think he plays in 120-130 next year best case scenario he misses a month and change. There are better young players in this game to fawn about and to own on your roster (Trout, Puig, Machado etc)

I'll take Harper over Puig and Machado, thanks.

People would be having wet dreams if Harper had posted a season like Puig did as a rookie, I'm sorry but that's true. I'm a huge Harper guy, but Puig is better and he actually plays every day and limps into the lineup, whereas Harper seems to find a reason to miss time every week or so

Puig is almost 2 years older than Harper, and that's in Cuban years (could be more).

Puig-  382 ABs, .319/66/19/42/11 (8 CS)
Harper-  424 ABs, .274/71/20/58/11 (4 CS)


Puig had a .383 BABIP, Bryce's was .306 despite a very similar LD/GB/FB%, so we can expect the AVG to be much closer next season.  

So to any objective human being, these two players look pretty identical.  Harper will just turn 21 next year and has already made great strides in his power (3rd in batted ball differential from last year to this year, and 9th OVERALL in distance).

Bryce Harper's 162 game average after 2 seasons:

.272/107/26/74/18

...as a 19 & 20 year-old.

If you think Bryce Harper is going to continue running into walls, missing 5 weeks, then playing parts of the rest of the season banged up, then by all means pass on him.  But I would not pass on him because you're disappointed that you took him in the 2nd round this year and you feel he didn't match your projections.  Kid is a star.
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#16 jv35

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Posted 19 October 2013 - 04:55 PM

I think Harper has a big decision to make this offseason regarding the direction of his career.  He can remain continue going all out even in situations where he could get hurt, which could lead to more years like 2013, or he could learn to ease up in situations to minimize his chances of injury, like not running into walls all the time.  It's fun to watch players that go all out, but it is sad when age catches up to them and they get injured often.  However, I think Harper has learned that always running into walls will limit his potential somewhat.  

I think that should he make the necessary adjustments to his game and avoids the wall collisions next year, he's a lock for 20-20 with 30-25 upside.
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#17 jspeco9

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 12:05 PM

No chance I take Puig over Harper. People talk about him as if he's Cargo or Tulo. This was only his first full year.

#18 Travis Burten

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 01:55 PM

I just want a full, healthy year. To get stats for evidence.

#19 mevins31

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 01:24 AM

Knee surgery at 21... Smh
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#20 MySoxrRed

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 08:20 AM

He is young. I am not worried about it.
NFL Team  - 14 Team Standard Auction .5 ppr
QB:Luck, Dalton
RB: Forte (K),Vereen, J. Hill, Taliaferro
WR:Jeffery. T. Williams, R. Randle, T. Austin, Streeter
TE: J. Thomas, Allen
K: Succop
DEF:Saints
DP:A. Cason, Sio Moore, Morgan Burnett




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