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Justin Verlander 2014 OutlookFantasy Ace or Starting to Decline?


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#1 FearTheBeard

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 12:48 AM

I'm very interested to see what Justin Verlander's dominant '13 post season does for his '14 ADP.

Personally I thought based off of name value he'd still go as a SP1 in '14 fantasy leagues, now after this post season I'm certain he will.

Do you chalk Verlander's disappointing regular season up as just an off year? Do you think it's the beginning of decline for this high mileage arm?

If I could describe Verlander's '13 regular season in one word it would be 'LABORING' or 'GRIND'. He threw a ton of pitches, lots of deep counts, and had the least amount of IP since '08 when his IP total were monitored.

While Verlander kept a consistent healthy K rate at 8.95/9, and SwStr% stayed pretty career consistent at 10.5% I saw a guy that had a few spells where he was just totally out of whack, and to be honest with you I think he was pacing himself a bit. With exception of a start here and there, he's FB sat in the low 90's with very little horizontal run. His command wasn't there, and his offspeed stuff was very hit or miss. Is it to far out of bounds to think an arm with a ton of mileage like Verlander thought he couldn't go balls to the wall every start and have anything left? The Verlander that took the hill on Sept 23rd Vs Minnesota was a far different guy than the Verlander I watched in 95% of his starts this season. That same Verlander magically appeared on Sept 29th, and 3 elite post season starts. It was like he used those two regular season starts to completely gear himself up for the post season.  

A big consistent with Verlander is durability, and while I expect him to be better in '14 than '13(simply due to him having a few spells where he completely lost his mechanics) - I think his days as a year long fantasy ace are done. Aside from the ugly 3.46 ERA, and 1.31 WHIP here's what concerns me(his SIERA and xFIP actually mark him as worse).

1) Declining velocity - lost almost 1 mph from '11 to '12, and lost another mph from '12 to '13. And certainly didn't have upper 90's in his back pocket when he needed it with exception of a couple starts.

2) Increase in BB rate - 3.09 BB/K, highest of his career since a dreadful '08. In addition to a few bad spells with his mechanics, I think he was trying to be too fine due to a decline in stuff.

#1 and #2 are a really bad combo for an aging SP, and often indicate start of decline.

3) He gave up a lot more hard contact - he sported his highest LD% since '06. Lots of deep FBs and hard GBs. Last two season his FB has sported less movement than in the rest of his career.

4) His defense - Will help with Iglesias, but man - that infield is bad. Just a huge overall lack of range.

As it stands, with what I think Verlander's ADP will be - there's no chance I'm touching him next season. There's far more concern with my eye test and the underlying numbers than warrants him being taken as a top 10 SP.

#2 mverkruyse

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 12:55 AM

I think calling him outside the top 10 SP is a definite stretch. That being said, he will likely be SP2 behind Kershaw, which will make his ADP mid to upper teens. For that price, I can't argue with passing on him, but I also wouldn't be at all surprised to find him as the #1 pitcher at the end of the 2014 season.

#3 FearTheBeard

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 02:01 AM

View Postmverkruyse, on 16 October 2013 - 12:55 AM, said:

I think calling him outside the top 10 SP is a definite stretch. That being said, he will likely be SP2 behind Kershaw, which will make his ADP mid to upper teens. For that price, I can't argue with passing on him, but I also wouldn't be at all surprised to find him as the #1 pitcher at the end of the 2014 season.

This' exactly why I posed this question regarding JV - personally I couldn't fathom the idea of taking Verlander as the 2nd SP off the board but with his name and after this post season I think others will share your opinion.

From what my eyes told me, and what the trends show - I think there's a lot more to this down year than him just not getting it/or being out of whack for 5 months and 3 weeks.

Personally, without hesitation I would take(in no particular order) Kershaw, Darvish, Wainwright, Scherzer, Jose Fernandez, Felix, Price, Sale, Bumgarner, Greinke, Harvey(if he wasn't getting TJ) and Lee over him. Maybe Hamels. Another popular name, Strasburg, which would be a no brainer but I have serious durability concerns there. Might be others, that's just off the top of the head on who I would take without thinking twice.

#4 parrothead

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 04:15 PM

View PostFearTheBeard, on 16 October 2013 - 12:48 AM, said:

I'm very interested to see what Justin Verlander's dominant '13 post season does for his '14 ADP.

Personally I thought based off of name value he'd still go as a SP1 in '14 fantasy leagues, now after this post season I'm certain he will.

Do you chalk Verlander's disappointing regular season up as just an off year? Do you think it's the beginning of decline for this high mileage arm?

If I could describe Verlander's '13 regular season in one word it would be 'LABORING' or 'GRIND'. He threw a ton of pitches, lots of deep counts, and had the least amount of IP since '08 when his IP total were monitored.

While Verlander kept a consistent healthy K rate at 8.95/9, and SwStr% stayed pretty career consistent at 10.5% I saw a guy that had a few spells where he was just totally out of whack, and to be honest with you I think he was pacing himself a bit. With exception of a start here and there, he's FB sat in the low 90's with very little horizontal run. His command wasn't there, and his offspeed stuff was very hit or miss. Is it to far out of bounds to think an arm with a ton of mileage like Verlander thought he couldn't go balls to the wall every start and have anything left? The Verlander that took the hill on Sept 23rd Vs Minnesota was a far different guy than the Verlander I watched in 95% of his starts this season. That same Verlander magically appeared on Sept 29th, and 3 elite post season starts. It was like he used those two regular season starts to completely gear himself up for the post season.  

A big consistent with Verlander is durability, and while I expect him to be better in '14 than '13(simply due to him having a few spells where he completely lost his mechanics) - I think his days as a year long fantasy ace are done. Aside from the ugly 3.46 ERA, and 1.31 WHIP here's what concerns me(his SIERA and xFIP actually mark him as worse).

1) Declining velocity - lost almost 1 mph from '11 to '12, and lost another mph from '12 to '13. And certainly didn't have upper 90's in his back pocket when he needed it with exception of a couple starts.

2) Increase in BB rate - 3.09 BB/K, highest of his career since a dreadful '08. In addition to a few bad spells with his mechanics, I think he was trying to be too fine due to a decline in stuff.

#1 and #2 are a really bad combo for an aging SP, and often indicate start of decline.

3) He gave up a lot more hard contact - he sported his highest LD% since '06. Lots of deep FBs and hard GBs. Last two season his FB has sported less movement than in the rest of his career.

4) His defense - Will help with Iglesias, but man - that infield is bad. Just a huge overall lack of range.

As it stands, with what I think Verlander's ADP will be - there's no chance I'm touching him next season. There's far more concern with my eye test and the underlying numbers than warrants him being taken as a top 10 SP.
Those are good stats, I was curious about the LD and the velocity, the walks are a concern because it got his pitches up and he also threw less innings despite making 34 starts.  To me, he is certainly still in my top 10 and he will be in our auction this year for the first time in a few years, but my guess is that he will be a little rich for what I would be willing to pay.  I would like him in the $12-15 range (130 cap) I assume he will be $17-22 range.
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#5 96mnc

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 12:15 PM

As a multiyear dynasty owner of JV I'm glad he pitched well this post season for all to see...because I'm trading him if I get the package I want.  As previously mentioned above there were a ton of red flags for JV this year.  Do I think he'll she relatively well?  Yes, he strikes me as the you're of guy that's smart enough to make the adjustments necessary to continue being successful.  But he's had a ton of innings on that arm and i think we've seen the best of him.

#6 Slatykamora

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 06:32 PM

.

View PostFearTheBeard, on 16 October 2013 - 02:01 AM, said:

View Postmverkruyse, on 16 October 2013 - 12:55 AM, said:

I think calling him outside the top 10 SP is a definite stretch. That being said, he will likely be SP2 behind Kershaw, which will make his ADP mid to upper teens. For that price, I can't argue with passing on him, but I also wouldn't be at all surprised to find him as the #1 pitcher at the end of the 2014 season.

This' exactly why I posed this question regarding JV - personally I couldn't fathom the idea of taking Verlander as the 2nd SP off the board but with his name and after this post season I think others will share your opinion.

From what my eyes told me, and what the trends show - I think there's a lot more to this down year than him just not getting it/or being out of whack for 5 months and 3 weeks.

Personally, without hesitation I would take(in no particular order) Kershaw, Darvish, Wainwright, Scherzer, Jose Fernandez, Felix, Price, Sale, Bumgarner, Greinke, Harvey(if he wasn't getting TJ) and Lee over him. Maybe Hamels. Another popular name, Strasburg, which would be a no brainer but I have serious durability concerns there. Might be others, that's just off the top of the head on who I would take without thinking twice.

For whatever its worth. His Fastball Velocity in April was 92.69. In October its 95.02.

Last year, in April, it was 94.44....and was 95.97 in October.  As he gets older, it probably takes longer to build his fastball Velocity. But its at least a good sign it actually DOES still build as the season progresses until the end. and not just perpetually decline.

Based on the trend...he will probably have the same problem again next April, and just get better as the season progresses with Velocity. I also eccho  96, in that his best is behind him, and he adapt to pitch with diminished stuff. I'm not drafting him as SP1, but I think he will still have Solid year. Just not Ace level..

Edited by Slatykamora, 18 October 2013 - 06:33 PM.


#7 FearTheBeard

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 03:35 PM

Don't hear about someone getting this surgery very often, probably puts his opening day status in question and certainly doesn't help in regards to getting in shape to start the season.

http://www.wxyz.com/...-season-surgery

http://www.cbssports..._medium=twitter

Edited by FearTheBeard, 09 January 2014 - 03:38 PM.


#8 NYG1119

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 03:36 PM

Quote

Justin Verlander underwent successful core muscle repair surgery on Thursday morning.

That's the exact announcement from the Tigers' official Twitter feed. "We fully anticipate Justin to participate in spring training and be in a position to compete at the beginning of the 2014 season," general manager Dave Dombrowski wrote in a statement. Verlander's rehab is only expected to take six weeks, but that will still put him behind the other pitchers in Tigers camp and his streak of Opening Day starts could very well be in jeopardy. He apparently injured himself during a December workout.

Source: Detroit Tigers on Twitter
Jan 9 - 3:14

Wow...might not be around for opening day. Are the days of Verlander being considered one of the best pitchers in the game possibly coming to an end???

Of course I targeted him with my 1st pick (4th round after 3 keepers) since he's ranked in the 40's in ESPN and just the thought of me stealing him, caused this...haha jk but told you I'm the plague.

Edited by NYG1119, 09 January 2014 - 03:46 PM.

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#9 oswald737

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 04:09 PM

I see this injury as potential increased value. If you can buy Verlander as an SP2, I'm on that like white on rice.

He intimated during the season that they'd identified a mechanics flaw last season. after he made that statement, he got considerably better with a dominant post season.

I am 100% buying low here and would easily slide him right in between guys like Hamels and Grienke.

#10 OrangeCrush

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 04:50 PM

I'm not so sure this puts him in jeopardy of Opening Day and I would actually like to see him tone it down a bit in the spring to keep that arm fresh. Might not be the worst thing in the world for him. Little extra rest never hurt anyone

Edited by OrangeCrush, 09 January 2014 - 04:52 PM.


#11 sasnumberonefan

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 04:55 PM

View PostOrangeCrush, on 09 January 2014 - 04:50 PM, said:

I'm not so sure this puts him in jeopardy of Opening Day and I would actually like to see him tone it down a bit in the spring to keep that arm fresh. Might not be the worst thing in the world for him. Little extra rest never hurt anyone

The only problem I have with this is he used to be a notorious slow starter, so a few years back he vamped up his spring regime to knock some of the rust off in games that don't matter. Him taking it easy back into spring will be good for the injury and the arm, but he might stumble out of the gate.
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#12 OrangeCrush

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 04:59 PM

View Postsasnumberonefan, on 09 January 2014 - 04:55 PM, said:

View PostOrangeCrush, on 09 January 2014 - 04:50 PM, said:

I'm not so sure this puts him in jeopardy of Opening Day and I would actually like to see him tone it down a bit in the spring to keep that arm fresh. Might not be the worst thing in the world for him. Little extra rest never hurt anyone

The only problem I have with this is he used to be a notorious slow starter, so a few years back he vamped up his spring regime to knock some of the rust off in games that don't matter. Him taking it easy back into spring will be good for the injury and the arm, but he might stumble out of the gate.

This is true. I'm actually trying to be as positive as possible because I own him. So sick of the injury bug!

#13 sasnumberonefan

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 05:02 PM

View PostOrangeCrush, on 09 January 2014 - 04:59 PM, said:

View Postsasnumberonefan, on 09 January 2014 - 04:55 PM, said:

View PostOrangeCrush, on 09 January 2014 - 04:50 PM, said:

I'm not so sure this puts him in jeopardy of Opening Day and I would actually like to see him tone it down a bit in the spring to keep that arm fresh. Might not be the worst thing in the world for him. Little extra rest never hurt anyone

The only problem I have with this is he used to be a notorious slow starter, so a few years back he vamped up his spring regime to knock some of the rust off in games that don't matter. Him taking it easy back into spring will be good for the injury and the arm, but he might stumble out of the gate.

This is true. I'm actually trying to be as positive as possible because I own him. So sick of the injury bug!

No doubt, I think he's one of the top pitchers to go after in this "what have you done for me lately" type of fantasy sport. I just want him fully healthy headed into spring so he doesn't have to change his routine.
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#14 brockpapersizer

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 07:47 PM

Do not want as my SP1 and SP2 only if his spring training is looking decent and its a later SP2.  Not saying he wont be a stud, but pitchers I go safe.
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#15 Sidearmer

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 09:09 PM

Those core injuries are always risky. Not sure if this is an intercoastal or what but seems like these kind of injuries always linger or take longer than expected. At this point I doubt he would start on Opening Day. I'd expect him to be DLed early, retroactive back a couple days, let him have a long simulated start in extended Spring, then bring him back.

I don't think this should affect his value too much, and I doubt drafters will change his value as well. He was aready a borderline SP1 to early SP2. I believe he will remain in that spot.
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#16 OrangeCrush

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 10:43 AM

View PostSidearmer, on 09 January 2014 - 09:09 PM, said:

Those core injuries are always risky. Not sure if this is an intercoastal or what but seems like these kind of injuries always linger or take longer than expected. At this point I doubt he would start on Opening Day. I'd expect him to be DLed early, retroactive back a couple days, let him have a long simulated start in extended Spring, then bring him back.

I don't think this should affect his value too much, and I doubt drafters will change his value as well. He was aready a borderline SP1 to early SP2. I believe he will remain in that spot.

http://www.rotoworld...rlander-shelved

#17 MrMartyBarrett

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 10:46 AM

Yeah, I don't see it as much of a knock on his draft value currently.  Even if he's DLed to start the year off, he's only likely to miss a start or 2.  WIth how deep he goes into games (whether or not that continues without Leyland around anymore is another story), he still should fill your rotisserie cats. well.

As others have said, I have mixed feelings here.  As a notorious slow starter, Verlander righted the ship a couple of years ago by starting a bit earlier, and came out strong out of the gate.  On the other hand here, maybe the extra time that he's staying off the mound will help him stay fresher for the year.  

I own him in dynos, but if I didn't-he'd likely be one that I'd target.  I'm sure that most have soured on him slightly....but he's still as strong as you're going to find.  SP2 with SP1 and beyond upside.  If he has a slow start-may be even better to buy.  However, if the struggles are persistent this year....well, his days on my roster are numbered.

#18 ballfan4141

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 11:00 AM

people you will pay "verlander" price. if you are ready to draft a pitcher draft someone close in his ranking.

#19 parrothead

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 12:57 PM

View Postsasnumberonefan, on 09 January 2014 - 05:02 PM, said:

View PostOrangeCrush, on 09 January 2014 - 04:59 PM, said:

View Postsasnumberonefan, on 09 January 2014 - 04:55 PM, said:

View PostOrangeCrush, on 09 January 2014 - 04:50 PM, said:

I'm not so sure this puts him in jeopardy of Opening Day and I would actually like to see him tone it down a bit in the spring to keep that arm fresh. Might not be the worst thing in the world for him. Little extra rest never hurt anyone

The only problem I have with this is he used to be a notorious slow starter, so a few years back he vamped up his spring regime to knock some of the rust off in games that don't matter. Him taking it easy back into spring will be good for the injury and the arm, but he might stumble out of the gate.

This is true. I'm actually trying to be as positive as possible because I own him. So sick of the injury bug!

No doubt, I think he's one of the top pitchers to go after in this "what have you done for me lately" type of fantasy sport. I just want him fully healthy headed into spring so he doesn't have to change his routine.
So long as its not a major injury, Im fine with it...might help drop him another $1 or 2, from where I think he was already going to be a price I was going to like.  I have a P2 type already and am hoping to add two more of his type to anchor the staff, Verlander was a guy I was thinking of targeting, this might scare off maybe 1 other owner who was thinking the same thing.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#20 squantos

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 12:11 AM

I can't remember the site I saw this on just recently.  But I believe I read that he sustained this injury last winter and that may have been a cause for his "down"  season this last year.  Or am I greatly mistaken??  Did anyone happen to hear about this?
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