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Prince Fielder 2014 Outlook


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#1 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 10:30 AM

He had a strong Sept. (.337/.396/.537) to salvage a good, albeit not close to 2nd-3rd round value, final season line.

However, he had an awful postseason (.225/.311/.250) and did not have an RBI (!) despite batting either 3rd or 4th in every game.

Further, his postseason was punctuated with this buttfumble-esque play:

Posted Image


What's outlook for next year? Rebound? Further decline? He'll still only be 29 when next year starts...

#2 JJ954

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 11:22 AM

Hes gonna fall alot in drafts next year i feel and its all gonna be over this one bad year where he went thru alot of stuff. I would say he has a good chance of being a top 5 1B and will most likely be the 7-8th off the board. He will go back to the .275 30HR and 110+ RBI season.

#3 jspeco9

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 03:46 PM

He always sucks in the postseason, no biggie. He'll be better next year.

#4 2ndCitySox

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 04:23 PM

I think he's on the decline.
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#5 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 04:35 PM

View Post2ndCitySox, on 20 October 2013 - 04:23 PM, said:

I think he's on the decline.

I agree. I think he'll put up similar to slightly better numbers next year.

I do wonder, however, if his recent divorce had something to do with the down season. The game is more mental than most people realize.
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#6 2ndCitySox

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 04:52 PM

View PostPosting In The Clutch, on 20 October 2013 - 04:35 PM, said:

View Post2ndCitySox, on 20 October 2013 - 04:23 PM, said:

I think he's on the decline.

I agree. I think he'll put up similar to slightly better numbers next year.

I do wonder, however, if his recent divorce had something to do with the down season. The game is more mental than most people realize.

Good point. I think he's an interesting 1B going into next year, but I think his ADP might be a little too high for me to want to gamble on
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#7 jv35

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 06:07 PM

I think we can attribute his down year to the divorce.  He also had a bit of bad luck.  His HR/FB rate was 5.5% below his career norm of 19%.  If his fly balls were leaving the yard at his career rate, he'd have hit 35 HR.  On the bright side, he still played in 162 games, so he seems to be just as durable.  He actually lost weight coming into Spring Training in 2013, and I thought he was primed for a big year, but it appears that the divorce really messed with him.  I think he could bounce back in 2014.  As a Tigers fan, I certainly hope that's the case.

Edited by jv35, 20 October 2013 - 06:08 PM.

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#8 Backdoor Slider

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 06:44 PM

View Postjv35, on 20 October 2013 - 06:07 PM, said:

I think we can attribute his down year to the divorce.  He also had a bit of bad luck. His HR/FB rate was 5.5% below his career norm of 19%.  If his fly balls were leaving the yard at his career rate, he'd have hit 35 HR.  On the bright side, he still played in 162 games, so he seems to be just as durable.  He actually lost weight coming into Spring Training in 2013, and I thought he was primed for a big year, but it appears that the divorce really messed with him.  I think he could bounce back in 2014.  As a Tigers fan, I certainly hope that's the case.

Yeah, but remember the majority of that was in hitter-friendly Miller Park.  Last year was 17.9%.  This year was 13.5%.  ~15% may be a new norm for him in this park.

I'm not seeing how the divorce was that much of a factor.  His AVG last year was propped up by a higher than average BABIP.  This year was right around his average.  His two seasons in DET actually look pretty similar.  

I actually wonder, since he was playing with Braun, if Miller Park wasn't the only thing helping his numbers in MIL.  Either way, seems .286/83/28/105/1 is about what you should expect.  To me, he's clearly no longer a 1st round pick.
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#9 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 09:20 PM

View PostBackdoor Slider, on 20 October 2013 - 06:44 PM, said:

View Postjv35, on 20 October 2013 - 06:07 PM, said:

I think we can attribute his down year to the divorce.  He also had a bit of bad luck. His HR/FB rate was 5.5% below his career norm of 19%.  If his fly balls were leaving the yard at his career rate, he'd have hit 35 HR.  On the bright side, he still played in 162 games, so he seems to be just as durable.  He actually lost weight coming into Spring Training in 2013, and I thought he was primed for a big year, but it appears that the divorce really messed with him.  I think he could bounce back in 2014.  As a Tigers fan, I certainly hope that's the case.

Yeah, but remember the majority of that was in hitter-friendly Miller Park.  Last year was 17.9%.  This year was 13.5%.  ~15% may be a new norm for him in this park.

I'm not seeing how the divorce was that much of a factor.  His AVG last year was propped up by a higher than average BABIP.  This year was right around his average.  His two seasons in DET actually look pretty similar.  

I actually wonder, since he was playing with Braun, if Miller Park wasn't the only thing helping his numbers in MIL. Either way, seems .286/83/28/105/1 is about what you should expect.  To me, he's clearly no longer a 1st round pick.

I thought that too. Braun gets busted this year and all of sudden Prince's performance declines precipitously? Coincidence?

#10 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 09:40 PM

I wouldn't say it's been a precipitous decline. Besides, guilt by association is kind of unfair.

Now Pujols and Hamilton... that's a precipitous decline.
I remember one evening in the pouring rain
And in my heart there was an aching pain
Fare thee well, my honey, fare thee well

#11 Backdoor Slider

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 10:21 PM

View PostPosting In The Clutch, on 20 October 2013 - 09:40 PM, said:

I wouldn't say it's been a precipitous decline. Besides, guilt by association is kind of unfair.

Now Pujols and Hamilton... that's a precipitous decline.

Guilt by association is unfair. Speculation by association is not. Just threw it out there as an aside. Just something to consider. Did not in any way try to insinuate it was fact.
The park change, and his less than stellar numbers, are real.
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#12 parrothead

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 11:12 AM

I think it will be really interesting where he goes ADP/Auction value next March.  I posted quite a bit on here last winter about his 1st round value and how I thought he was overvalued/overrated, not that he would be aweful (which he was not) but that I thought the decline was somewhat real and that he wouldnt perform up to where he was being drafted.

This year, I think he could be a value:
- I think baseball in general overreacts a bit in terms of ADP.
- Career low HR/FB% so there was a little bit of bad luck involved perhaps in his numbers that if they average between his average and this low should see a bounceback
- I think 1B is lacking in proven talent that people will invest in, maybe the worst its been for that type of player.  Questions about Pujols, Butler back to DH (20-game leagues).

If he is 3rd - 4th round, which I think he could be, I think there is some obvious value to be had, but it will be league dependent, in my auciton, he is the type of guy I will throw out early and see where his value goes, normally I dont throw out guys Im interested in, but if its a star, you dont want to let your plans B, C, D go by waiting on Prince then realize 4 other owners had the same plan and now he is inflated.
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#13 jv35

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 02:35 PM

View PostBackdoor Slider, on 20 October 2013 - 06:44 PM, said:

Yeah, but remember the majority of that was in hitter-friendly Miller Park.  Last year was 17.9%.  This year was 13.5%.  ~15% may be a new norm for him in this park.

Even though it's 420 to dead center, Comerica Park actually plays as a bit of a hitter's park.  Just looking at ESPN Park Factors, Miller Park jumps between 1.0 to 1.2 for HR over the last 5 years.  Over the same span, Comerica was between .90 and a bit above 1.0.  (For reference, 1.0 is neutral, < 1.0 is pitcher-friendly, and >1.0 is hitter-friendly).  Comerica isn't as hitter friendly as Miller Park, but it isn't among the leagues most pitcher-friendly parks.  

As much as I hoped Prince would follow his dad's footsteps and hit 50 in a Tigers uni,but that's not going to happen.  I do think that we will see a bit of a bounceback with home runs into the 30s.  And the Tiger fan in me hopes for an outside chance at 40.  Hey, I gotta be optimistic.  He'll be in Detroit for seven more seasons.

I'm curious where he'll be ranked for next season.  The extremely early rankings on ESPN have him at 13th overall, so early 2nd round, but I expect that will drop as we get closer to drafts.
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#14 Backdoor Slider

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 08:37 PM

I don't know that he'll drop much lower. Definitely will go in the 12-24 range. Similar to Votto in that he has a high floor and you can count on solid numbers with some upside.
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#15 bigbluecrew56

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 08:19 PM

Fielder's down year imo had more to do with mental then physical. Big man went through a rough divorce during the season. Hard to concentrate on being the best when half your pay is on the line and visitation with your children is about to be cut to certain time frames. Hopefully he is able to come to grips this off season and return a solid value next year.

#16 Backdoor Slider

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 02:07 PM

View Postbigbluecrew56, on 23 October 2013 - 08:19 PM, said:

Fielder's down year imo had more to do with mental then physical. Big man went through a rough divorce during the season. Hard to concentrate on being the best when half your pay is on the line and visitation with your children is about to be cut to certain time frames. Hopefully he is able to come to grips this off season and return a solid value next year.

What was the problem last year?
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#17 bigbluecrew56

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 08:35 PM

Fielder just traded to Texas for Kinsler. Just what the fat boy needed.

#18 jspeco9

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 08:52 PM

40 again?

#19 Wavier JunKie

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 08:54 PM

View Postjspeco9, on 20 November 2013 - 08:52 PM, said:

40 again?

His value definatly went up and Kinslers went down.  Nice deal for Texas not sure what Detroit was thinking.

#20 Sidearmer

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 08:56 PM

View PostWavier JunKie, on 20 November 2013 - 08:54 PM, said:

View Postjspeco9, on 20 November 2013 - 08:52 PM, said:

40 again?

His value definatly went up and Kinslers went down.  Nice deal for Texas not sure what Detroit was thinking.

Detroit unloads money, they can move Cabrera to 1B again and put Castellanos at 3B.
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