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Tim Lincecum 2014 Outlook


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#1 96mnc

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Posted 22 October 2013 - 08:06 PM

Resigned by the Giants today to a two year 35m contract.  

Seemed to perform better in the second half of the season but will probably be a whip killer going forward.  The era should be decent and the Ks will still be there.

A good deal for both sides.  Reportedly, the Giants were going to offer him the one year 14m tender offer if they didn't work out a deal.  If Timmy cab continue to refine his new approach he can get a better deal when he's a free agent again at age 29.

I'm curious as to what he would have commanded on the open market (3/40 maybe) but that's a moot point now.

#2 ballfan4141

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Posted 22 October 2013 - 08:23 PM

huge waste of money. how can a guy with an era of 4.50 the last two years get this kind of money. baseball is a joke with how much they pay people.

#3 BigPapi44

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Posted 22 October 2013 - 08:24 PM

I think they forgot the decimal between the 3 and 5.

#4 parrothead

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Posted 22 October 2013 - 11:28 PM

Its an overpay, but thats what the Giants do.  I would of assumed a 2-year deal more in the 25 range, with maybe 28 just to "get it done", 35 is ridiculous.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#5 mjk356

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 12:05 AM

Yikes, 2/35 coming off the two years he just had is an absolutely brutal deal.  Has to be a bit of a panic move given how little MLB ready starting pitching there is in the Giants system.  Crick has big-time command issues, Stratton is probably a year or two away and was uninspiring in A ball, Kickham looked atrocious last season in his time up in the bigs.  Have to wonder if he would've gotten even 2/25 from any other team except the Giants.

Edited by mjk356, 23 October 2013 - 12:09 AM.


#6 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 12:12 AM

I don't know. I think the Giants have some viable SP options moving forward. Crick isn't ready yet, but their High-A team was stacked with starters.

Between Crick, Ty Blach, Clayton Blackburn, Adalberto Mejia, and Edwin Escobar (who also was in AA last year) I'd say their farm system still has some of the best pitching prospects around. I would think that at least two of those guys will pan out.

I would have let Lincecum walk if that's the money he thinks he's worth and taken my chances with cheaper and younger home-grown talent.

Edited by Posting In The Clutch, 23 October 2013 - 12:14 AM.

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#7 Caelum

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 03:13 AM

You'd think after Barry Zito the Giants would be tired of paying $17.5 million-plus per year to a starter who puts up a high-4s ERA. Guess they've grown attached to that situation.
10-team mixed, 5x5

C: Montero, d'Arnoud
1B: Pujols; 2B: Alcantara; SS: H. Ramirez; 3B: Sandoval
MI: Wong; CI: Bautista
OF: Gomez, Springer, Holliday, L. Martin, Crisp
U: Ortiz
SP: Wainwright, Bumgarner, A. Wood, Beckett, Lackey, T. Ross
RP: Perkins, Melancon, Doolittle, Casilla
Bench: Buchholz, Duffy, Odorizzi, C. Johnson

C: Ramos, Mesoraco
1B: Goldschmidt; 2B: Carpenter; SS: Tulowitzki; 3B: Wright
MI: Wong; CI: Donaldson
OF: Choo, Crisp, Dickerson, Martin, Springer
U: Ortiz
SP: Cueto, Iwakuma, A. Wood, Lohse, Hahn, Gee
RP: Chapman, Soria, Doolittle, Britton
Bench: A. Escobar, Niese, Minor, Colon, Rasmus

#8 ballfan4141

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 05:17 AM

yusmeiro petit pitched good. when they gave lincecum the money the last time they could have gotten a good hitter.

#9 umphrey

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 08:10 AM

Lincecum is a good streaming option!  Shouldnt be regularly owned in 10 or 12 teamers though.

#10 sasnumberonefan

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 09:19 AM

Dumbest contract I've seen in a while..
FFB 12 Team Standard 4 Keeper lose the draft pick the keeper was taken in
QB: Romo RB: Ogbonnaya, Pierre Thomas WR: Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, Josh Gordon (K, 16th) TE: Jimmy Graham (K, 3rd) D/ST: New England K: Nick Folk Bench: Percy Harvin (K, FA) Justin Blackmon (K, FA) Toby Gerhart, Darren Sproles, Andre Brown, Danny Amendola

#11 MrMartyBarrett

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 09:39 AM

This deal is....well....not a good one.  For the Giants that is.  If Lincecum can bounce back and throw well, they're still paying for it, and not at a discounted price.  I can't imagine that the market for him would have been ANYWHERE near that price.

#12 parrothead

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 09:45 AM

View Postballfan4141, on 23 October 2013 - 05:17 AM, said:

yusmeiro petit pitched good. when they gave lincecum the money the last time they could have gotten a good hitter.
I think the problem they have is that hitters dont seem to want to come to them because of the ballpark, cold weather or other factors, I read back in September they were going to be in on some of the Cubans, now they both signed elsewhere and since they moved to that park what hitting free agents have they signed?
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#13 ballfan4141

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 11:04 AM

View Postparrothead, on 23 October 2013 - 09:45 AM, said:

View Postballfan4141, on 23 October 2013 - 05:17 AM, said:

yusmeiro petit pitched good. when they gave lincecum the money the last time they could have gotten a good hitter.
I think the problem they have is that hitters dont seem to want to come to them because of the ballpark, cold weather or other factors, I read back in September they were going to be in on some of the Cubans, now they both signed elsewhere and since they moved to that park what hitting free agents have they signed?
well they traded for pence. they have not signed a power hitter yet. angel pagan. that is about it. pence actually had his best season this year and the rest of the giants team didn't hit at all.

#14 dod959

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 12:05 PM

This is an interesting situation to me because it seemed a no-brainer to let this guy go. Usually when teams let stars go it's because they know from seeing them everyday that they're toast. Pujols, Hamilton, etc.

I do wonder why they'd re-sign him to this deal. Maybe they're just dumb. Very possible. Maybe they think he can still pitch if he gets his mind right or something like that?

#15 parrothead

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 02:07 PM

View Postballfan4141, on 23 October 2013 - 11:04 AM, said:

View Postparrothead, on 23 October 2013 - 09:45 AM, said:

View Postballfan4141, on 23 October 2013 - 05:17 AM, said:

yusmeiro petit pitched good. when they gave lincecum the money the last time they could have gotten a good hitter.
I think the problem they have is that hitters dont seem to want to come to them because of the ballpark, cold weather or other factors, I read back in September they were going to be in on some of the Cubans, now they both signed elsewhere and since they moved to that park what hitting free agents have they signed?
well they traded for pence. they have not signed a power hitter yet. angel pagan. that is about it. pence actually had his best season this year and the rest of the giants team didn't hit at all.
One thing I read in some of the Lincecum articles was that he had bad luck when it came to runners he left for his relievers, that they scored at a 20% rate.  While some of this is true and some is spin, one thing I would counter with is that when you get a high pitch count and get knocked out in the 5th or 6th inning, you arent exactly getting the best the bullpen has to offer.  Go deeper in games, get it to the 7-8-9 inning guys and Im sure that rate will go down, if his bad outings are these shorter appearances, I would suspect his inherited runners will have a higher rate.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#16 BigPapi44

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 03:23 PM

View Postparrothead, on 23 October 2013 - 02:07 PM, said:

View Postballfan4141, on 23 October 2013 - 11:04 AM, said:

View Postparrothead, on 23 October 2013 - 09:45 AM, said:

View Postballfan4141, on 23 October 2013 - 05:17 AM, said:

yusmeiro petit pitched good. when they gave lincecum the money the last time they could have gotten a good hitter.
I think the problem they have is that hitters dont seem to want to come to them because of the ballpark, cold weather or other factors, I read back in September they were going to be in on some of the Cubans, now they both signed elsewhere and since they moved to that park what hitting free agents have they signed?
well they traded for pence. they have not signed a power hitter yet. angel pagan. that is about it. pence actually had his best season this year and the rest of the giants team didn't hit at all.
One thing I read in some of the Lincecum articles was that he had bad luck when it came to runners he left for his relievers, that they scored at a 20% rate.  While some of this is true and some is spin, one thing I would counter with is that when you get a high pitch count and get knocked out in the 5th or 6th inning, you arent exactly getting the best the bullpen has to offer.  Go deeper in games, get it to the 7-8-9 inning guys and Im sure that rate will go down, if his bad outings are these shorter appearances, I would suspect his inherited runners will have a higher rate.
I'd like to see those.  If he was leaving 2+ baserunners and/or runners on third (or scoring position) with less than 2 outs, then that's not 'bad luck', that's on him.

Edited by BigPapi44, 23 October 2013 - 03:23 PM.


#17 96mnc

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 05:02 PM

View Postdod959, on 23 October 2013 - 12:05 PM, said:

This is an interesting situation to me because it seemed a no-brainer to let this guy go. Usually when teams let stars go it's because they know from seeing them everyday that they're toast. Pujols, Hamilton, etc.

I do wonder why they'd re-sign him to this deal. Maybe they're just dumb. Very possible. Maybe they think he can still pitch if he gets his mind right or something like that?

There were some subtle signs of improvement in the second half of the year.  I don't have the spilts in front of me though.

What's the going rate for #3 starters that can log 200 innings these days anyways?

As for the offense...they are banking on panda getting in shape and Belt improving.  They better not be counting on Pence repeating his 2013.  Still need a LF though.

#18 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 06:58 PM

This is the definition of paying for past performance. Not only is Linecum no longer an ace, but I'm wondering if he's even a #3 on most teams.
I remember one evening in the pouring rain
And in my heart there was an aching pain
Fare thee well, my honey, fare thee well

#19 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 07:02 PM

Among qualified players, here are the two starters who have put up a worse ERA than Lincecum over the past two years:

Luke Hochevar
Edinson Volquez

That is all.

#20 nickalero99

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 07:08 PM

Tigers signed Anibal Sanchez for 5 years 80 million last year and I thought it was a bit excessive.  This makes that look like a total steal.  If you're going to give him over 10 million a year, make it for one year with a team option for the second.  Of course you'd hate to see him return to form elsewhere, but how's that going to make other guys feel in contract negotiations?




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