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Eric Hosmer 2014 OutlookThe Wizard of Hos > The Boz


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#1 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 05:55 PM

From the beginning of June until the end of the season, Hosmer was exceptional, posting a line of .318/.367/.494 (.862 OPS) over 482 PAs. He had 16 HRs, 26 doubles, 68 runs scored, 63 RBIs, and 8 SBs during that span.

Extrapolate those numbers to a 162-game average and you're looking at 24 HRs, 39 doubles, 94 RBIs, 102 runs scored, and 12 SBs. He just turned 24 today.

Two burning questions:

1. Is this the kind of upside that he has?

2. Where does he go in next year's drafts?
You're television incarnate, Diana: Indifferent to suffering; insensitive to joy. All of life is reduced to the common rubble of banality. War, murder, death are all the same to you as bottles of beer. And the daily business of life is a corrupt comedy. You even shatter the sensations of time and space into split seconds and instant replays. You're madness, Diana. Virulent madness. And everything you touch dies with you. But not me. Not as long as I can feel pleasure, and pain... and love.

#2 BigPapi44

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 06:57 PM

Personally, in a 5x5 league, I'd rank him #6 (behind Goldy, Encarnacion, Davis, Freeman and Votto).  I'd have him ahead of Prince right now, because I think he can hit for a higher average, and get into double digits in SBs again.  I don't think there will be that much of a difference between their power numbers.

#3 sunnyside

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 07:59 AM

Long way from making up a draft list, but tentatively I'd say I'd have him about 28 overall in an AL-league.  I definitely would not put him ahead of Fielder.  No matter a youngster's upside, and this one has been considerably hyped, I don't think taking a portion of ABs and then calculating over a full season is a good practice.

#4 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 03:07 PM

View Postsunnyside, on 26 October 2013 - 07:59 AM, said:

Long way from making up a draft list, but tentatively I'd say I'd have him about 28 overall in an AL-league.  I definitely would not put him ahead of Fielder.  No matter a youngster's upside, and this one has been considerably hyped, I don't think taking a portion of ABs and then calculating over a full season is a good practice.

482 PAs is not exactly a small portion to extrapolate from...
You're television incarnate, Diana: Indifferent to suffering; insensitive to joy. All of life is reduced to the common rubble of banality. War, murder, death are all the same to you as bottles of beer. And the daily business of life is a corrupt comedy. You even shatter the sensations of time and space into split seconds and instant replays. You're madness, Diana. Virulent madness. And everything you touch dies with you. But not me. Not as long as I can feel pleasure, and pain... and love.

#5 sunnyside

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 10:37 PM

Maybe I'm drunk and adding up wrong, but I don't think so: Hosmer had 479 PAs since June 1st.  Yeah, still not a small sample size, but neither are the 195 PAs before then.  Anyway you slice it, it's about 30% of a year's PAs you want to ignore.  Why cut Hosmer the slack?  I"ll gladly take him ahead of Fielder in 2015, after he shows consistent superiority over Fielder in a full 162-game, 600 PA + season in 2014.

Edited by sunnyside, 27 October 2013 - 10:42 PM.


#6 parrothead

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 12:52 PM

I dont know that I would have him ahead of Prince but in the same neighborhood or tier, he would be on that list of 1B that would say something like "make sure you get one of these guys".
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#7 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 29 October 2013 - 09:24 AM

I don't trust him at all. He started abysmally for two seasons in a row.

#8 sunnyside

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Posted 29 October 2013 - 10:08 AM

Since becoming a full-time player in '06, Fielder has had three "monster years in his career: 2007, 2009, and 2011:

'07:  228 Runs/Ribbies    50 homers    .288 average
'09:  244 Runs/Ribbies    46 homers    .299 average
'11:  215 Runs/Ribbies    38 homers    .299 average

Even if Hosmer reached his full potential, I don't think he can put up these type of #'s.  Getting to the 200 mark in ribbies and runs would require help from his teammates, and KC's lineup is not strong.

#9 Travis Burten

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Posted 29 October 2013 - 10:41 AM

He's a .290+ hitter to me. I think he drops something like a .300-27HR-100-100-15 type year. Superb talent that finally got the hitting plane right.

#10 sunnyside

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Posted 29 October 2013 - 03:06 PM

View PostPosting In The Clutch, on 26 October 2013 - 03:07 PM, said:

View Postsunnyside, on 26 October 2013 - 07:59 AM, said:

Long way from making up a draft list, but tentatively I'd say I'd have him about 28 overall in an AL-league.  I definitely would not put him ahead of Fielder.  No matter a youngster's upside, and this one has been considerably hyped, I don't think taking a portion of ABs and then calculating over a full season is a good practice.

482 PAs is not exactly a small portion to extrapolate from...

View Postsunnyside, on 27 October 2013 - 10:37 PM, said:

Maybe I'm drunk and adding up wrong, but I don't think so: Hosmer had 479 PAs since June 1st.  Yeah, still not a small sample size, but neither are the 195 PAs before then.  Anyway you slice it, it's about 30% of a year's PAs you want to ignore.  Why cut Hosmer the slack?  I"ll gladly take him ahead of Fielder in 2015, after he shows consistent superiority over Fielder in a full 162-game, 600 PA + season in 2014.
I realized after I posted that you were probably counting sac flies and HBPs, making it 482 since June for Hosmer and 197 before.  Sorry to get so nitpicky.  When I first added it up, I mistakenly thought there was a bigger difference.

Edited by sunnyside, 29 October 2013 - 03:06 PM.


#11 uspsjeter2

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 03:33 PM

Interesting discussion here. He's had a couple of good 1/2 seasons and a couple really bad ones. He did show consistency this year from June on, and hit .299 at Kauffman with 10 HR's, so his home park didn't really penalize him. I'd like to see how his hr/fb rate compared to previous years since it can have some predictive value for increased power. I'd say at his age with almost 3 full seasons under his belt it's reasonable to expect some more improvement in the power department, so a .300 BA with 25 HR's seems pretty fair for a very early projection. The steals to me are just gravy.
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#12 BigPapi44

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 10:02 PM

View Postsunnyside, on 29 October 2013 - 10:08 AM, said:

Since becoming a full-time player in '06, Fielder has had three "monster years in his career: 2007, 2009, and 2011:

'07:  228 Runs/Ribbies 50 homers .288 average
'09:  244 Runs/Ribbies 46 homers .299 average
'11:  215 Runs/Ribbies 38 homers .299 average

Even if Hosmer reached his full potential, I don't think he can put up these type of #'s.  Getting to the 200 mark in ribbies and runs would require help from his teammates, and KC's lineup is not strong.
I don't think anyone said Hosmer would put up Fielder numbers, rather that Fielder is on the decline.

#13 sunnyside

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 01:55 AM

[

View PostBigPapi44, on 30 October 2013 - 10:02 PM, said:

View Postsunnyside, on 29 October 2013 - 10:08 AM, said:

Since becoming a full-time player in '06, Fielder has had three "monster years in his career: 2007, 2009, and 2011:

'07:  228 Runs/Ribbies    50 homers    .288 average
'09:  244 Runs/Ribbies    46 homers    .299 average
'11:  215 Runs/Ribbies    38 homers    .299 average

Even if Hosmer reached his full potential, I don't think he can put up these type of #'s.  Getting to the 200 mark in ribbies and runs would require help from his teammates, and KC's lineup is not strong.
I don't think anyone said Hosmer would put up Fielder numbers, rather that Fielder is on the decline.

Fielder turns 30 in May.  Far too young to be talking about a decline.  Think he could still have 1 or two more "monster" years in him.  Even "extrapolating" the best for Hosmer, he would only be slightly better (in steals and maybe average; homers and ribbies would be about the same) than the "down" Fielder of 2012-13.

Right now I have Fielder at 13th in my AL-only; Hosmer would be at about 25, 26.

Edited by sunnyside, 05 November 2013 - 01:56 AM.


#14 yort1919

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 08:18 PM

Will Eric Hosmer finally have a breakout season in 2014? Predicted numbers please...thanks
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#15 jspeco9

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:04 AM

He was pretty consistent from June till the end of the season.

April & May he had HR/FB% of 0% and 5.6% respectively. Both were unsustainable for a player of his caliber (career 12.6% so it was bound to go up). After that it ranged from 9.1%-27.3% in each in the last 4 months. The average 1B has a HR/FB% of 14.1%.

I would safely bank him for 20 HR and 90 RBI and a .290 BA, with room for more (very talented).

#16 uspsjeter2

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 12:06 PM

View Postjspeco9, on 27 November 2013 - 12:04 AM, said:

He was pretty consistent from June till the end of the season.

April & May he had HR/FB% of 0% and 5.6% respectively. Both were unsustainable for a player of his caliber (career 12.6% so it was bound to go up). After that it ranged from 9.1%-27.3% in each in the last 4 months. The average 1B has a HR/FB% of 14.1%.

I would safely bank him for 20 HR and 90 RBI and a .290 BA, with room for more (very talented).
Early Steamer projections from Fangraphs:
21 HR  83 R  89 RBI  11 STL  .288 AVG  .815 OPS  2.8 WAR

Edited by uspsjeter2, 03 December 2013 - 12:06 PM.

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#17 UberRebel

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Posted 12 February 2014 - 04:55 PM

Interesting debate between Freeman and Hosmer for 2014. I think Freeman is the more stable pick, but Hosmer has more upside and could probably be had at a better value in a later round.

http://www.baseballp...articleid=22640
10 TEAM 7x7 (HR, RBI, R, SB, AVG, BB, OPS) (W, L, ERA, SV, K, BB, WHIP)

C - Mauer
1B - Votto
2B - Cano
SS - Cabrera
3B - Encarnacion
OF - Choo
OF - Holliday
OF - Alex Gordon
Util - Abreu

Bench: Rizzo, Gyorko, Dee Gordon, Hill

SP - Scherzer
SP - Fernandez
RP - Perkins
RP - Papelbon

Bench : Cain, Bailey, Salazar, Santos, Webb

#18 MugsyBogues

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Posted 12 February 2014 - 07:10 PM

I'm all-in on Hosmer this year.
I'll say 90-25-90-15-.290/.850.  
Even if he just comes close to these #s, he'd be a steal at pick 60 or so, IMO.

#19 UberRebel

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Posted 12 February 2014 - 07:14 PM

View PostMugsyBogues, on 12 February 2014 - 07:10 PM, said:

I'm all-in on Hosmer this year.
I'll say 90-25-90-15-.290/.850.  
Even if he just comes close to these #s, he'd be a steal at pick 60 or so, IMO.

I would actually call that his floor for this season barring injury. I'm crossing my fingers for something like .310 90-30-100-15. Paul Goldschmidt lite in 2014.
10 TEAM 7x7 (HR, RBI, R, SB, AVG, BB, OPS) (W, L, ERA, SV, K, BB, WHIP)

C - Mauer
1B - Votto
2B - Cano
SS - Cabrera
3B - Encarnacion
OF - Choo
OF - Holliday
OF - Alex Gordon
Util - Abreu

Bench: Rizzo, Gyorko, Dee Gordon, Hill

SP - Scherzer
SP - Fernandez
RP - Perkins
RP - Papelbon

Bench : Cain, Bailey, Salazar, Santos, Webb

#20 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 12 February 2014 - 07:16 PM

View PostUberRebel, on 12 February 2014 - 07:14 PM, said:

View PostMugsyBogues, on 12 February 2014 - 07:10 PM, said:

I'm all-in on Hosmer this year.
I'll say 90-25-90-15-.290/.850.  
Even if he just comes close to these #s, he'd be a steal at pick 60 or so, IMO.

I would actually call that his floor for this season barring injury. I'm crossing my fingers for something like .310 90-30-100-15. Paul Goldschmidt lite in 2014.

No way is that his floor. We've seen how he can bottom out with a bad approach. It's not pretty. But I am optimistic about this season.

If that were his floor, he wouldn't be around in the 5th round.

Edited by Posting In The Clutch, 12 February 2014 - 07:17 PM.

You're television incarnate, Diana: Indifferent to suffering; insensitive to joy. All of life is reduced to the common rubble of banality. War, murder, death are all the same to you as bottles of beer. And the daily business of life is a corrupt comedy. You even shatter the sensations of time and space into split seconds and instant replays. You're madness, Diana. Virulent madness. And everything you touch dies with you. But not me. Not as long as I can feel pleasure, and pain... and love.




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