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is the nfl becoming pass happy?


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#1 elementasrat

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 12:10 PM

i recently read an article on nfl.com talking about trends among "explosive" fantasy perfomances. here's the link if you want to read it: http://www.nfl.com/f...sy-performances

in it the author talks about the crazy games from foles and andre johnson and if there are any trends among
those performances.

he wrote something i found very interesting but wrong at the same time:
"Check out which positions are having these big games -- either QB or WR. I can't emphasize enough that the NFL has become a passing league, and running backs are not nearly as critical to fantasy success as they once were."


in response i commented on the article saying this:
here is where i disagree with you. look at what you wrote; it contradicts your own statement: "Check out which positions are having these big games -- either QB or WR. I can't emphasize enough that the NFL has become a passing league, and running backs are not nearly as critical to fantasy success as they once were."---- unless im missing something, doesn't that mean runningbacks are even more precious than ever before? if teams are becoming more pass happy, then don't stud runningbacks start to go away. it seems like just a few years ago arian foster led the league with 300+ points but now quarterbacks are taking over. there are always going to be 2 rb positions you need to fill in so don't you want to make sure you have the best available rbs? and if the league is starting to become more passing based then doesn't that lower the value of wrs because you never know who's going to go off? if you do research you see that the most critical positions in fantasy football in terms of relative value are tight end, runningback, quarterback, wide receiver,k, defense- in that order. yes, wr will usually be hit or miss but if you do your research correctly, either on the waiver wire or in the draft, you can get some good wideouts. look at me, i have reggie bush, lynch, stacy, pryor, and gronk. i STREAM wide receivers. why would i need to depend on so called "studs" like dez bryant or aj green that have their fair share of single digit games when i can do research, get someone like riley cooper and aldrick robinson(me this week) and split those 30 points. 15 AND 15 . meanwhile i get solid consistent production from elsewhere. just my 2 cents. again it takes a lot of research but the benefits are SO worth it.

what do you guys think about this? has the nfl really become more pass friendly and if so what does that mean for future draft strategies pertaining to runningbacks, qbs, wide receivers, etc.?

Edited by elementasrat, 11 November 2013 - 12:12 PM.

ESPN STANDARD 10 TEAM FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUE

QB-Foles, Pryor, Cutler
RB-Lynch, Bush, Stacy,MJD, Vereen, Starks
WR-Cooper, Posey
TE-Gronk, Wright
D/ST-Giants
K-Carpenter, Folk


ESPN CUSTOM 8 TEAM FANTASY BASKETBALL LEAGUE
pg-paul, lowry, westbrook, jennings, louis williams
sg-turner, mayo
sf-iguodala, josh smith
pf-millsap, garnett

c-hibbert, howard, jefferson

#2 GottaGetTheWin

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 12:11 PM

*
POPULAR

This topic is about 3 years too late.

#3 cowbell204

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 12:11 PM

Becoming??

#4 elementasrat

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 12:15 PM

i love how no one even bothers to read what i wrote. wow.

Edited by elementasrat, 11 November 2013 - 12:15 PM.

ESPN STANDARD 10 TEAM FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUE

QB-Foles, Pryor, Cutler
RB-Lynch, Bush, Stacy,MJD, Vereen, Starks
WR-Cooper, Posey
TE-Gronk, Wright
D/ST-Giants
K-Carpenter, Folk


ESPN CUSTOM 8 TEAM FANTASY BASKETBALL LEAGUE
pg-paul, lowry, westbrook, jennings, louis williams
sg-turner, mayo
sf-iguodala, josh smith
pf-millsap, garnett

c-hibbert, howard, jefferson

#5 Just Do It

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 12:38 PM

Fantasy wise, you need WR/TE to get through the regular season. But you need RBs to win the playoffs.

#6 Selassie Lion

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 12:52 PM

Posted Image

#7 Less_Schaub_

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 01:26 PM

I agree, I think the league is in a pass-happy stage.  I think the 2007 Pats really changed the scene in the NFL with their insane passing attack.  I think a lot of teams tried to emulate it to a degree, and it has resulted in more teams throwing it.  I also think a lot of the rule changes over the last couple years in the NFL help QBs and WRs.  

But ultimately,  I think the biggest benefactors are the elite QBs (Manning, Brees, Rodgers) who can pick apart opposing defenses.  Sort of a "Rich get richer (Manning, Brees, etc...), poor get a bit better..." situation.  In all three of my leagues, the team in first place has Peyton Manning.  And all the Brees owners are in second (except one who is in fourth but isn't an active manager, which says a lot...).

Don't know if that means I'm taking Mike Wallace over DeMarco Murray next year, but it does play a part.

Edited by Less_Schaub_, 11 November 2013 - 01:27 PM.

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#8 Arty05

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 01:37 PM

View PostLess_Schaub_, on 11 November 2013 - 01:26 PM, said:

I agree, I think the league is in a pass-happy stage.  I think the 2007 Pats really changed the scene in the NFL with their insane passing attack.  I think a lot of teams tried to emulate it to a degree, and it has resulted in more teams throwing it.  I also think a lot of the rule changes over the last couple years in the NFL help QBs and WRs.  

But ultimately,  I think the biggest benefactors are the elite QBs (Manning, Brees, Rodgers) who can pick apart opposing defenses.  Sort of a "Rich get richer (Manning, Brees, etc...), poor get a bit better..." situation.  In all three of my leagues, the team in first place has Peyton Manning.  And all the Brees owners are in second (except one who is in fourth but isn't an active manager, which says a lot...).

Don't know if that means I'm taking Mike Wallace over DeMarco Murray next year, but it does play a part.

Coincidentally though, there is an owner in my league that has both Peyton and Brees, but is in dead last lol. But that is definitely an outlier.
10-team ESPN standard league (6-6)

QB: Wilson, Foles
RB: McCoy, Lacy, Ridley, Spiller, Z. Stacy, L. Bell
WR: Fitzgerald, D. Jackson, Amendola, Dobson
TE: J. Graham, Cameron
D/ST: Stream
K: Tucker (Stream)

#9 GChicago

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 01:40 PM

I think the point of the article is that WRs and QBs are capable of winning you weeks based on a single huge performance whereas RBs really don't do that anymore.  I mean how many 150+ multi TD games have WRs produced this year?  RBs just don't turn in performances like that anymore.
12 Team PPR League
QB: Stafford, T. Pryor
RB: T. Richardson, R. Bush, E. Lacy, B. Tate, Z. Stacy
WR: W. Welker, V. Cruz, E. Sanders, H. Douglas
TE: M. Bennet
K:  M. Prater
Def: Baltimore

#10 SkinsChargersFan

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 02:54 PM

RB is still the most important position to have for consistency, bc the elite ones are getting increasingly scarce. It's also harder to predict the best performers year-to-year. WR's may be more apt to going off huge, but they are also more likely to put up duds.  Megatron, Dez, AJ & DT have all had multiple games under 6pts.

As always, you need a well rounded team with production from every position. RB is the hardest to get this from... That's why it remains the most important.  That being said, drafting a stud WR or QB early has now become a surer thing than going after a "supposed top 15" RB (just ask any T-Rich, Spiller, Rice, SJax, MJD, etc. owners).

#11 cs3

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 03:03 PM

View Postelementasrat, on 11 November 2013 - 12:10 PM, said:


what do you guys think about this?
I think you wasted a lot of time writing all that out

#12 sott3

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 03:04 PM

Did I mistakenly click to see the oldest post in the forum?
Team A - Yahoo Standard Scoring - Finished 3rd
QB: A.Luck, J.McCown, J.Cutler
RB: A.Morris, B.Tate, Andre Brown, M.Ball, B.Rainey
WR: AJ Green, J.Nelson, TY Hilton, A.Boldin
TE: T.Gonzalez, C.Fleener
K: G.Hartley
DST: Streaming

Team B - Yahoo Standard Scoring - Finished 4th
QB: T.Brady, N.Foles
RB: CJ Spiller, S.Vareen, D.Sproles, F.Jackson, B.Rainey
WR: V.Jackson, J.Gordon, James Jones, H.Douglas, P.Harvin
TE: J.Cameron, D.Pitta
K: D.Bailey
DST: Streaming

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#13 Sidearmer

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 03:55 PM

View PostGottaGetTheWin, on 11 November 2013 - 12:11 PM, said:

This topic is about 3 years too late.

Yes, this is true and it is a little late. It remains to be seen the continuing trend or just a couple of outlier years. I think the biggest contribution to this all is the new safety rules and injuries. Safety rules are helping the pass so much. QBs no that they can throw it up and take chances now if they have a tall WR. Most of the time they will catch or or fight for it, or a PI will be called.

With the injuries, it seems that all D-lineman just keep getting bigger and stronger and there really aren't many RBs that can handle huge amounts of carries every week. This eliminates the amount of studs there are. I mean, if Demarco Murray was able to handle 20+ carries every week and stay healthy he'd be an elite fantasy player.

Then there's coaches' response to this, which is RBBC. This is another restraint on RBs stud ability. A guy like Stevan Ridley or Gio Bernard would be a week in week out fantasy stud if they didn't have competition for the ball. With WRs, competition for the ball is already built in, as a 5 catch dday when a QB completes 20 passes could still be great if they score or accumulate a big play on one of those catches.

Then there is also the fact that it is clear the NFL is entering into a generation of elite QB play. The key here is the amount of unwatchable QBs is done and mid range QBs still have a chance to do well. I don't have stats to back this up but its just an observation. Therefore, a guy like Josh Gordon is still thriving because Jason Campbell is viable. 10 years earlier, backup QBs may not have been this good.

To apply this all to fantasy, WR are still important. For every Riley Cooper there is a Mohammed Sanu, and every Josh Gordon there is a Chris Givens. Hard to stream at this position. You can definitely wait on QB but WR is still very valuable especially because you need 3 of them compared to 2 RB. I was a big believer in waiting for QBs and I targeted Stafford/Wilson/Romo in all my leagues and it has seemed to work, although I got Calvin in multiple leagues too and he has carried those teams.
"I never said most of the things I said." - Yogi Berra

#14 CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 04:01 PM

http://cdn.someecard.../Picture_12.png

#15 CL3VELANDBR0WNS

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 04:03 PM

Yes, There are few workhorse running backs in football anymore.
I am more than willing to help with any dynasty/keeper league questions, PM me if you have any.

#16 PhilBinLaden

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 02:57 PM

Is the nfl becoming pass happy?
short answer: yes
long answer: yesss

In all seriousness, your post about RBs being more valued over QBs/WRs goes to the opinion of the drafter. Does he value a work horse running back with a 60% chance of getting injured for multiple weeks, or a work horse QB with maybe a 10% chance of getting hurt for multiple weeks. More often than not you just hope you got lucky in your first 2 rounds of picking whichever way you go, and that your later round picks that people slept on may turn into fantasy gold. I employ a different strategy it seems every year, and there is one consistency in all strategies, luck. You either luckily picked that RB or got unlucky and picked this one when the former was still available on draft day. This year I went back to back RBs: Lynch and Richardson. I almost went for RB3 in round 3 as I was targeting S Jax or MJD at this point, lucky for me, someone scooped these guys up ahead of me and so I lucked out imo.
Arguments go both ways because surefire QBs can be misleading too (ie Tom Brady), and gotta have rbs can kill you when injuries happen, see first round talents Rice, Martin, Foster, Spiller, Richardson, and the list goes on.
10 Team Standard (Passing TDs 6 pts)
QB - Nick Foles (WW pick up), Matt Ryan
RB - Marshawn Lynch, CJ Spiller (traded T Rich), Shane Vereen (WW pick up)
WR - Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Brown, Cecil Shorts (WW pick up)
TE - Jordan Cameron, Martellus Bennett
DEF - Seahawks
K - Greg the Leg

The only game that implores 1% skill 99% luck, and yet that 1% skill is the result of us spending half our days looking at reports and insider info on the web and around the NFL hoping to turn our luck into fantasy gold.

#17 ballfan4141

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 03:43 PM

the most important thing is to get points. I see teams with ok RBs but got calvin Johnson or jimmy graham along with manning or brees and another good player and are outscoring everyone every week. brees threw for over 5,000 yards the last two years and brady and Stafford did once. the last two years there has been 7 times QBs have thrown for over 4,900 yards. this year I refused to draft arian foster, spiller, ray rice (had to because he was obviously the best one left in one league) and jamal Charles. obviously one guy did good but I wanted lynch is every league with my first pick even in ppr. that is why I wanted like the 5th or 6th pick. then you have idiots you think Hillman and ball are going to be the starters over Moreno.

Edited by ballfan4141, 12 November 2013 - 03:45 PM.


#18 parrothead

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 03:44 PM

Ive been pretty much saying this for years, in my league I want elite WR and I will patch together the RB situation.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#19 ballfan4141

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 03:51 PM

also even with WRs look what happen to Julio jones, roddy white, reggie wayne, amendola and fitzgerald. its luck more now then it was years ago. I hate FF and the NFL a little bit. rather play baseball or even basketball. if you only play FF you are a pop culture follow unless you been playing for years. I mean like 10.

#20 BxBOMBERs28

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 05:06 PM

Umm.. yea! Lol




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