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Marco Estrada 2014 Outlook


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#1 Sidearmer

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 03:41 PM

Many had him tabbed for a breakout last year because of his K/BB but he struggled very badly out of the gate. First two months were bad and got injured early in June and fell off the face of the earth.

After the injury, he came back and simply dominated. Two straight years where he finished the season very strong.

Personally, I like him because last 3 years have been very consistent so his floor isn't very low. His upside is high because if his peripherals ever translate to his real numbers he will show vast improvement.

A guy with a 4 ERA is still very valuable if he's putting up a sub 1.15 WHIP and a lot of strikeouts. My main concern would be his injury history, but I'm thinking his ADP will be extremely low this year.

Thoughts?
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#2 D R fbb

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 04:12 PM

I am somebody that likes this guy heading into next year. If he can stay healthy for a full season, I see a middle of rotation type starter for your fantasy team. The beauty is that he will only cost you a price of a fifth starter or later! You mix the price with the upside and I see a starting pitcher that I will try to own on all my teams.
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#3 FearTheBeard

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 05:03 PM

To me until his home park changes to a plus pitching destination he's pretty limited. He'll continue to be a sleeper type due to his WHIP, and K/BB - no doubt he has one of the best change ups in baseball with a SwStr% north of 23%.

While he has good fastball command, when he misses that thing gets throttled. For a shorter guy he creates good vertical angles due to release point, but gets very little arm side run. At 89mph, little run, and working frequently up in the zone mistakes are gonna get crushed(as they have been), and Miller Park isn't forgiving. His fastball plays when he has soup can command, but otherwise it's lackluster, his cutter sucks, his curveball sucks - but as I mentioned his change is the money maker.

Frustrating thing about owning him is he isn't match up dependent for a back end fantasy SP, when he's missing it doesn't matter who he's throwing against - it's awful. I like him in a more forgiving park, but he's hard to trust much in Miller. That all being said - at his ADP, there isn't much to lose.
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#4 Sidearmer

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 06:01 PM

I am somebody that likes this guy heading into next year. If he can stay healthy for a full season, I see a middle of rotation type starter for your fantasy team. The beauty is that he will only cost you a price of a fifth starter or later! You mix the price with the upside and I see a starting pitcher that I will try to own on all my teams.


I targeted him last year and stuck through with him the whole year and he really helped in the fantasy playoffs. I see him the same way I did before last year but his price is cheaper this year.
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#5 Sidearmer

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 06:03 PM

To me until his home park changes to a plus pitching destination he's pretty limited. He'll continue to be a sleeper type due to his WHIP, and K/BB - no doubt he has one of the best change ups in baseball with a SwStr% north of 23%.

While he has good fastball command, when he misses that thing gets throttled. For a shorter guy he creates good vertical angles due to release point, but gets very little arm side run. At 89mph, little run, and working frequently up in the zone mistakes are gonna get crushed(as they have been), and Miller Park isn't forgiving. His fastball plays when he has soup can command, but otherwise it's lackluster, his cutter sucks, his curveball sucks - but as I mentioned his change is the money maker.

Frustrating thing about owning him is he isn't match up dependent for a back end fantasy SP, when he's missing it doesn't matter who he's throwing against - it's awful. I like him in a more forgiving park, but he's hard to trust much in Miller. That all being said - at his ADP, there isn't much to lose.


Exactly my thinking with the ADP. Plus he already has given up a ton of HR and still had decent seasons last 3 years. With that WHIP and K rate, he's a valuable pitcher. Maybe start to start he isn't consistent but overall I'm thinking sub 4 ERA with sub 1.15 WHIP this year and a 9 K/9, which plays on any team as a back end fantasy pitcher

Edited by Sidearmer, 13 November 2013 - 06:03 PM.

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#6 baltimore_boy

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Posted 15 November 2013 - 08:18 PM

Had him for the first part of last year, and not taking him again. Gives up too many homers and is in a bad ballpark to pitch like that. Way too inconsistent. Even if I owned him, I wouldn't be able to start him with any confidence in any of his matchups.
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#7 Sidearmer

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 09:18 PM

Had him for the first part of last year, and not taking him again. Gives up too many homers and is in a bad ballpark to pitch like that. Way too inconsistent. Even if I owned him, I wouldn't be able to start him with any confidence in any of his matchups.


If you stuck with him you would have been greatly rewarded.

Yes he is inconsistent but overall should be able to put up good numbers this year.
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#8 WahooManiac

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 09:37 PM

In standard redrafts, even at his low price Im thinking theres still a sp or two id rather take. You guys hit the high notes already, but theres just so much young sp talent and I just hate guys with his makeup. Maybe he develops another pitch, but most of his stuff is garbage and in the data age you cant live on 89mph and one real pitch. I think its just as likely the changeup becomes less effective as there is of him actually turning into a legit sp3. In deeper leagues hes a good value play I suppose
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#9 Travis Burten

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 11:36 PM

Not much optimism for a guy who had a 0.75 WHIP, 2.15ERA and 9K/9 in the 2nd half of last year after he came back from injury.

#10 Slatykamora

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 07:41 AM

Not much optimism for a guy who had a 0.75 WHIP, 2.15ERA and 9K/9 in the 2nd half of last year after he came back from injury.


It's being realistic. Some days he isn't his hitting his spots. And when you miss with a High 80's/Low 90's Fastball with little movement. It becomes a meatball. Hence, his Home run tendency..

Will be drafting him on most my teams though. Because he should have a nice ADP. Disagree about not ever being able to play match up with him.

He has a long History of getting beat up by the Cards. If you sit him vs the Cards and start him vs everyone else. (save for Coors Field) You will end up ahead. Sure, sometimes he will implode. But the overall numbers should look good.

#11 Travis Burten

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 09:00 AM


Not much optimism for a guy who had a 0.75 WHIP, 2.15ERA and 9K/9 in the 2nd half of last year after he came back from injury.


It's being realistic. Some days he isn't his hitting his spots. And when you miss with a High 80's/Low 90's Fastball with little movement. It becomes a meatball. Hence, his Home run tendency..

Will be drafting him on most my teams though. Because he should have a nice ADP. Disagree about not ever being able to play match up with him.

He has a long History of getting beat up by the Cards. If you sit him vs the Cards and start him vs everyone else. (save for Coors Field) You will end up ahead. Sure, sometimes he will implode. But the overall numbers should look good.


We've known about his crappy fastball and his home run proneness for 2 years now. He's showcased it on full display. At the same time, he has like some beast ratios, especially whenever BB is incorporated in your scoring settings. With all the new young arms taking MLB headlines.....I'm going to be drafting a tonne of these types. Veterans that can provide great value and good control as opposed to flame throwing youngster.

I'd rather have Estrada over Zach Wheeler, Archie Bradley, Gerrit Cole (for his price, but he's good though), etc.

#12 Sidearmer

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 12:20 PM



Not much optimism for a guy who had a 0.75 WHIP, 2.15ERA and 9K/9 in the 2nd half of last year after he came back from injury.


It's being realistic. Some days he isn't his hitting his spots. And when you miss with a High 80's/Low 90's Fastball with little movement. It becomes a meatball. Hence, his Home run tendency..

Will be drafting him on most my teams though. Because he should have a nice ADP. Disagree about not ever being able to play match up with him.

He has a long History of getting beat up by the Cards. If you sit him vs the Cards and start him vs everyone else. (save for Coors Field) You will end up ahead. Sure, sometimes he will implode. But the overall numbers should look good.


We've known about his crappy fastball and his home run proneness for 2 years now. He's showcased it on full display. At the same time, he has like some beast ratios, especially whenever BB is incorporated in your scoring settings. With all the new young arms taking MLB headlines.....I'm going to be drafting a tonne of these types. Veterans that can provide great value and good control as opposed to flame throwing youngster.

I'd rather have Estrada over Zach Wheeler, Archie Bradley, Gerrit Cole (for his price, but he's good though), etc.


The argument about his stuff really is invalid IMO. He's had solid numbers for 3 years now. His inconsistency is overrated because a lot of pitcher's have the same problems, they just aren't highlighted by HR. Because HR is is problem, his WHIP will remain low.
"I never said most of the things I said." - Yogi Berra

#13 BlueJaysIn2030

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 03:02 PM

I can see Estrada putting something like this together:
185IP, 170-180K, 11W, 3.6ERA, 1.15-1.2WHIP
12 Team Dynasty League

C Devin Mesoraco 1B Anthony Rizzo 2B Jason Kipnis 3B Todd Frazier
SS Ian Desmond IF Nolan Arenado
OF Carlos Gomez, Bryce Harper, Matt Kemp
UTL Andrew McCutchen, Jason Heyward, Wil Myers
BN Javier Baez

SP Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner
RP Santiago Casilla, Cody Allen
P Jake McGhee, Sean Doolittle Mat Latos, Alex Wood, Zack Wheeler
BN Matt Shoemaker, Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom

NA
DL Jurickson Profar

#14 RyanksN

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Posted 24 March 2014 - 08:51 AM

Looking to get some info on this guy. He had a strong finish and is pitching well in spring... wondering if he can continue that. Anyone know where is projected to go in the rotation?
1.)CBS Auction Dynasty 5x5 Standard Roto (12 team)13 Keepers + 3 Minor League Keepers
$260 for 23 player (Also have 17 player bench not included in Auction Draft)
Batters (11) C(2)-Arencibia, Riuz $1 1st- Goldy $44, 2nd- Profar $9, 3rd- Sandavol $1, SS- Jeter $1, CI- Seager $7, MI- LaMeieu $1, OF(5)- J.Upton $26, Trout $61, C.Dickerson $5, Markakis $1, Castellanos $1 DH- Votto $37
BN - Y.Alonso $1, S.Genette $1, Ackley $1
Pitchers (4) SP(6)- , D.Keuchel $4, G.Cole $16, Teharan $15, Y.Ventura $1, D.Hutchenson $1, Pineda $1 RP(3)- T.Rosenthal $15, Hawkins $1, S.Casilla $2
BN - J.Paxton $1, D.Pomeranz $4, Tillman $5, M.Stroman $7, Rondon $1
Minors - J.Baez, K.Bryant,J.Pederson, J.Taillon, T.Glasnow, M.Wisler

2.)CBS Auction Dynasty Points League (12 team)10 Keepers + 2 Minor League Keepers
$300 for 18 players (Also have 12 player bench not included in Auction Draft)
Scoring: 1 pt = rbi, run, bb, sac, 2 pt= sb, 2.5 pt = dbl, 4 pt = hr, 5 pt = tpl, -1 =k
1 pt = IP, 2 pt = k, 3 pt = qs, hld, 4 pt = w, 5 pt = sv, 7.5 pt = cg, so, -1 pt = bb, er, -3 pts = loss
Batters (10) C- Weiters $22, 1st-F.Freeman $26, 2nd- Carpenter $11, 3rd- Arenado $11, SS- Jeter $1, OF(3)-McCutchens $50, W.Meyers $12, Gorden $7, DH (2)- A.Gon $22, Votto $49 BN-.A.Ram, Asdrubal, Cain, Pollock, Hansen, Seager, Soler
Pitchers (8) SP(5)- A.Wainwright $20, M.Scherzer $23, J.Zimmerman $17, M.Minor $12, Skaggs $1 RP(3)- S.Miller $12, A.Reed $2, A.Ogando $1 BN-.Miley $1, Paxton $9, E.Santana $12, Carrasco $8, A.Heaney $7

#15 Orion Braun

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Posted 24 March 2014 - 09:52 AM

Looking to get some info on this guy. He had a strong finish and is pitching well in spring... wondering if he can continue that. Anyone know where is projected to go in the rotation?


He'll slot in as the #4, I believe. Should go Gallardo, Garza/Lohse, Estrada, Peralta.

Meaning he should start the year with @BOS, @PHI, vs. STL, @PIT.

Seems like Estrada is ending up on a lot of my teams this year. The stuff is there to have a breakout, he's got to stay healthy and keep the ball in the yard, which can be tough in Miller Park. No reason why the BlueJaysIn2030 projection can't happen.
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#16 Sidearmer

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 12:00 AM


Looking to get some info on this guy. He had a strong finish and is pitching well in spring... wondering if he can continue that. Anyone know where is projected to go in the rotation?


He'll slot in as the #4, I believe. Should go Gallardo, Garza/Lohse, Estrada, Peralta.

Meaning he should start the year with @BOS, @PHI, vs. STL, @PIT.

Seems like Estrada is ending up on a lot of my teams this year. The stuff is there to have a breakout, he's got to stay healthy and keep the ball in the yard, which can be tough in Miller Park. No reason why the BlueJaysIn2030 projection can't happen.


That is a rough start. Easy buy low if you don't own him, although I think if he's on he will neutralize those teams anyway - problem is the one day he is off he wil give up 7 runs in 4 innings, but overall should be solid over the 4 starts.
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#17 HRH255

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 01:38 AM


Looking to get some info on this guy. He had a strong finish and is pitching well in spring... wondering if he can continue that. Anyone know where is projected to go in the rotation?


He'll slot in as the #4, I believe. Should go Gallardo, Garza/Lohse, Estrada, Peralta.

Meaning he should start the year with @BOS, @PHI, vs. STL, @PIT.

Seems like Estrada is ending up on a lot of my teams this year. The stuff is there to have a breakout, he's got to stay healthy and keep the ball in the yard, which can be tough in Miller Park. No reason why the BlueJaysIn2030 projection can't happen.


I think RR is putting him 3rd to start the year because he wants Garza to start the home opener in Boston (has great career #'s vs them)

Gallardo/Lohse/Estrada/Garza/Peralta is what he's thinking.

And giving up HR's is bad, but it makes it a lot less worse when you don't walk hitters. Estrada has a great K/BB ratio which makes him a def. option for fantasy teams.

#18 Orion Braun

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 09:11 AM



Looking to get some info on this guy. He had a strong finish and is pitching well in spring... wondering if he can continue that. Anyone know where is projected to go in the rotation?


He'll slot in as the #4, I believe. Should go Gallardo, Garza/Lohse, Estrada, Peralta.

Meaning he should start the year with @BOS, @PHI, vs. STL, @PIT.

Seems like Estrada is ending up on a lot of my teams this year. The stuff is there to have a breakout, he's got to stay healthy and keep the ball in the yard, which can be tough in Miller Park. No reason why the BlueJaysIn2030 projection can't happen.


I think RR is putting him 3rd to start the year because he wants Garza to start the home opener in Boston (has great career #'s vs them)

Gallardo/Lohse/Estrada/Garza/Peralta is what he's thinking.

And giving up HR's is bad, but it makes it a lot less worse when you don't walk hitters. Estrada has a great K/BB ratio which makes him a def. option for fantasy teams.


Where'd you see that? I found this from a Journal Sentinel blog post 5 days ago... Just reading the quotes, it seems like RR wants him to be the 4th starter, so it wouldn't have to wait another 7 days before he threw again (which he would if he were the third starter).



Roenicke also left the door open for Garza starting the third and final game of the Brewers' season-opening series against the Atlanta Braves.
"Just looking at matchups and what's happening, we are concerned about what happens with the (third) starter because he won't pitch for another seven days," Roenicke said, referring to the two off days the Brewers will have in the first nine days.
"Garza likes to be on five days if he can, six days at most, so we don't know if that's the best way to do it. His next start would be seven days later because of those off-days after that.

Read more from Journal Sentinel: http://www.jsonline....l#ixzz2wz2QtPGJ

Edited by Orion Braun, 25 March 2014 - 09:12 AM.

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#19 ludawg23

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 09:14 AM

I think he's a great 4th-5th SP type of guy. Ratios won't hurt you, WHIP is stellar but as in past years...will give up the long ball.

2014 12 team 5x5 H2H League - Runner up!

 

2014 14 team 0.5 PPR League

 

QB - Rodgers

RB - Murray, SJAX, Vereen, Andre Williams, Sims, Blue

WR - Julio, Stills, Steve "Ice Up, Son!" Smith, Shorts

TE - Kelce

K - Barth

DEF - Stream City

 

 


#20 MireLurker

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 10:00 AM

I like him, drafted him, but those Home/Road splits are weird... huge gap last year, but yet they were inverted the two years before. I guess it comes down to HR proneness, and Miller park will limit his value a bit.
10-team 5x5 roto redraft league | big roster | no IP limit

C[2] -- Perez, Mesoraco
1B ---- Moss, Abreu
2B ---- Pedroia
SS ---- Escobar, Zobrist
3B ---- Frazier, A-Ram
MI ----- Villar
CI -----
OF[5] - Trout, Stanton, Werth, Morse, Melky, Heyward, Revere
P[9] --- Cueto, Wacha, Verlander, Minor, Estrada, Ross, Beckett, Keuchel, Roark, Skaggs
---------- A. Wood
RIP ---- Jose Fernandez

The other teams is just one long disabled list.




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