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Chris Davis 2014 OutlookWorth a first rounder?


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#1 baltimore_boy

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Posted 15 November 2013 - 08:33 PM

Davis was arguably the biggest breakout player last year. Hit 53 homers and drove in 138 runs. He carried a lot of fantasy teams throughout the year and was arguably the fantasy MVP last year.

What do we possibly expect for next year?

I think a regression is a given. He's always had the power to lead the majors in homers, and finally made enough contact last year to live up to it. He won't go 53/138 again, but he could still hit 40. Will there be a big drop-off next year for the likely top 5 pick? Personally, I won't be taking him if I get a top 5 pick, as there are safer options than Davis available like Goldy or Cutch, and I think owners will take him expecting a repeat and be disappointed with him next year.
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#2 FantasySportsEnthusiast

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Posted 15 November 2013 - 09:04 PM

The real question is which Chris Davis should we expect next year. The one from April to June or the one from July to September.

I could definitely see him hitting 40 bombs next year but the question is whether teams will give him the chance to do so. I see teams not giving him much to hit. His strikeout rate is still atrocious which will really hurt in H2H leagues when he goes through slumps.

I probably won't be taking Davis because of where I project him being drafted but would consider so in this context. The league is a roto league with additional scoring categories to reduce the risk. Maybe OBP instead of AVG or additional stats like TB, SLG, or some combination of the before mentioned.

#3 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 15 November 2013 - 11:32 PM

View Postbaltimore_boy, on 15 November 2013 - 08:33 PM, said:

Davis was arguably the biggest breakout player last year. Hit 53 homers and drove in 138 runs. He carried a lot of fantasy teams throughout the year and was arguably the fantasy MVP last year.

What do we possibly expect for next year?

I think a regression is a given. He's always had the power to lead the majors in homers, and finally made enough contact last year to live up to it. He won't go 53/138 again, but he could still hit 40. Will there be a big drop-off next year for the likely top 5 pick? Personally, I won't be taking him if I get a top 5 pick, as there are safer options than Davis available like Goldy or Cutch, and I think owners will take him expecting a repeat and be disappointed with him next year.

I wouldn't take him 1-4 (Trout, Miggy, Goldschmidt, Cutch), but after that if I have the 5th pick I would consider taking him over Cano, especially since I'd be targeting Kipnis later. An argument could be made for Encarnacion as well.

Davis shouldn't go any later than 7th overall, though.
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#4 damana

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Posted 16 November 2013 - 01:23 PM

View PostPosting In The Clutch, on 15 November 2013 - 11:32 PM, said:

View Postbaltimore_boy, on 15 November 2013 - 08:33 PM, said:

Davis was arguably the biggest breakout player last year. Hit 53 homers and drove in 138 runs. He carried a lot of fantasy teams throughout the year and was arguably the fantasy MVP last year.

What do we possibly expect for next year?

I think a regression is a given. He's always had the power to lead the majors in homers, and finally made enough contact last year to live up to it. He won't go 53/138 again, but he could still hit 40. Will there be a big drop-off next year for the likely top 5 pick? Personally, I won't be taking him if I get a top 5 pick, as there are safer options than Davis available like Goldy or Cutch, and I think owners will take him expecting a repeat and be disappointed with him next year.

I wouldn't take him 1-4 (Trout, Miggy, Goldschmidt, Cutch), but after that if I have the 5th pick I would consider taking him over Cano, especially since I'd be targeting Kipnis later. An argument could be made for Encarnacion as well.

Davis shouldn't go any later than 7th overall, though.

I agree that Davis should go in the top seven and I would also have a difficult time picking between him and Encarnacion in the 6th spot.  After them you have a hodge podge of injury risks and question marks.  I think with your first round pick you have to go with reliablity and while I doubt Davis puts up a repeat of 2013 I think he can still give you value if drafted toward the end of the first round.  If he slips to you with a later pick than 7th I say jump all over him.

Edited by damana, 16 November 2013 - 01:23 PM.

4X4 AL East and NL only Keeper auction league (Keep 10)

C. Davis ($25)(3 years)
D. Murphy ($6)(3 years)
B. Harper ($17)(2 years)
E. Cabrera ($4)(3 years)
X. Boegaerts (3rd base eligible only)($6)(4 years)
A. Jones ($27)(1 year)
K. Jensen ($8)(3 years)
M. Minor ($7)(3 years)
A. Cobb ($9)(3 years)
A. Cashner ($6)(3 years)

#5 Sidearmer

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 09:06 PM

I loved this guy last year because the year before he hit 30 HR and hit 270, but was still flying way under the radar. This year, I just don't know if I could take him that high. His floor is probably his 2012 season of 270/30. Ceiling can't be anything higher than last year. Problem with getting him that high is he could end up being two stats.
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#6 FouLLine

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 12:49 AM

Here's one that's been keeping me up at night...

Votto or Davis?  Votto is surely the safer pick, but Chris Davis has the insane upside.  But I also think Votto's value will be sneaky due to having an "under productive" year.  Which I would think will be Votto's worst year in his prime.

#7 BigPapi44

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 10:33 AM

Depending on your league's positional requirements, Encarnacion qualifies for 3B in some leagues (like Yahoo!), so personally I'd take him over Davis in my league.  Still see Davis as a top 10 pick though.

#8 dod959

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 03:41 PM

View PostFouLLine, on 18 November 2013 - 12:49 AM, said:

Here's one that's been keeping me up at night...

Votto or Davis?  Votto is surely the safer pick, but Chris Davis has the insane upside.  But I also think Votto's value will be sneaky due to having an "under productive" year.  Which I would think will be Votto's worst year in his prime.

Depends if CIN re-signs Choo. Can you imagine something like Robinson and Cozart ahead of Votto? Forget it.

#9 96mnc

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 03:29 PM

View Postdod959, on 19 November 2013 - 03:41 PM, said:

View PostFouLLine, on 18 November 2013 - 12:49 AM, said:

Here's one that's been keeping me up at night...

Votto or Davis?  Votto is surely the safer pick, but Chris Davis has the insane upside.  But I also think Votto's value will be sneaky due to having an "under productive" year.  Which I would think will be Votto's worst year in his prime.

Depends if CIN re-signs Choo. Can you imagine something like Robinson and Cozart ahead of Votto? Forget it.

Yep.  Also depends on your league format, roto vs head to head, obp, etc.

#10 ballfan4141

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 07:47 AM

isn't this a contract year for davis?

#11 Ned Ryerson

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 10:36 AM

Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

#12 parrothead

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 10:38 AM

I think he will be a first rounder, just wont be one on my team, and if a lot of people take that approach, then you might have some leagues like we saw in the FSTA draft where he went mid 2nd round.  I mean that is a league of "experts" and nobody took the guy in the 1st round so what does that say about what that group will write and say on their shows in the next two months leading up to peoples drafts.
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#13 jb_power

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 01:18 PM

View PostNed Ryerson, on 17 January 2014 - 10:36 AM, said:

Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

I don't see the Os lineup as filthy ... at best it's slightly above average.

Chris Davis and Adam Jones = stars
Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado = above average
Nick Markakis = below average
Ryan Flaherty, LF and DH = far below average

#14 96mnc

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 01:34 PM

View Postjb_power, on 17 January 2014 - 01:18 PM, said:

View PostNed Ryerson, on 17 January 2014 - 10:36 AM, said:

Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

I don't see the Os lineup as filthy ... at best it's slightly above average.

Chris Davis and Adam Jones = stars
Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado = above average
Nick Markakis = below average
Ryan Flaherty, LF and DH = far below average

In the past Markakis has at least gotten on base which makes him valuable in the leadoff spot.

Weeks is an option at 2b.  Maybe he finally puts it together.

Between Lough, Reimold, and Urrita (sp) they have options for lf and dh.

I'd call it a well above average lineup.

Markakis
Machado
Crash
Jones
Wieters
Hardy
Lf
Dh
Weeks


#15 96mnc

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 01:34 PM

View Postjb_power, on 17 January 2014 - 01:18 PM, said:

View PostNed Ryerson, on 17 January 2014 - 10:36 AM, said:

Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

I don't see the Os lineup as filthy ... at best it's slightly above average.

Chris Davis and Adam Jones = stars
Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado = above average
Nick Markakis = below average
Ryan Flaherty, LF and DH = far below average


#16 96mnc

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 01:35 PM

View Postjb_power, on 17 January 2014 - 01:18 PM, said:

View PostNed Ryerson, on 17 January 2014 - 10:36 AM, said:

Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

I don't see the Os lineup as filthy ... at best it's slightly above average.

Chris Davis and Adam Jones = stars
Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado = above average
Nick Markakis = below average
Ryan Flaherty, LF and DH = far below average


#17 Travis Burten

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 01:38 PM

View Postjb_power, on 17 January 2014 - 01:18 PM, said:

View PostNed Ryerson, on 17 January 2014 - 10:36 AM, said:

Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

I don't see the Os lineup as filthy ... at best it's slightly above average.

Chris Davis and Adam Jones = stars
Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado = above average
Nick Markakis = below average
Ryan Flaherty, LF and DH = far below average

What? You got a 40HR bat, a .290-30HR bat in the middle of your lineup. Not many teams have that kind of punch in their 3-4. O's have one of the best offenses in baseball, top 5. Above average would be like Milwaukee.

#18 jb_power

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 01:42 PM

View Post96mnc, on 17 January 2014 - 01:34 PM, said:

View Postjb_power, on 17 January 2014 - 01:18 PM, said:

View PostNed Ryerson, on 17 January 2014 - 10:36 AM, said:

Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

I don't see the Os lineup as filthy ... at best it's slightly above average.

Chris Davis and Adam Jones = stars
Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado = above average
Nick Markakis = below average
Ryan Flaherty, LF and DH = far below average

In the past Markakis has at least gotten on base which makes him valuable in the leadoff spot.

Weeks is an option at 2b.  Maybe he finally puts it together.

Between Lough, Reimold, and Urrita (sp) they have options for lf and dh.


I'd call it a well above average lineup.

Markakis
Machado
Crash
Jones
Wieters
Hardy
Lf
Dh
Weeks

Weeks is an option ... OK, so he's an option.  He has also been "optioned" to AAA the last 2 years by the A's.   He's now 26 years old and RW lists him as the 3rd stringer for 2B

Ok, so they also have "options" for LF and DH.  You do know that every single team in MLB has options ... doesn't make them good options.

that's 3 very weak positions ... but the O's have options.

I'll stick to my "at best it's slightly above average"

#19 Slatykamora

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 02:41 PM

How many teams don't have 2 or 3 holes and at least 2 stars?

They were 5th in the Majors in runs scored  and 4th OPS with basically the same line up Switching McLouth and Lough.

That accomplished that with getting .669 OPS from 2B, .688 from RF, .704 from DH, .706 from LF. It is certainly top heavy,   Texas and NYY got better, Tigers got worse on offense..and lets say LAA corrects itself. That still puts them around 8th. No?

Dodgers and Braves have Potential i suppose..

Edited by Slatykamora, 17 January 2014 - 02:43 PM.


#20 vagueusername

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 03:00 PM

View Postjb_power, on 17 January 2014 - 01:42 PM, said:

View Post96mnc, on 17 January 2014 - 01:34 PM, said:

View Postjb_power, on 17 January 2014 - 01:18 PM, said:

View PostNed Ryerson, on 17 January 2014 - 10:36 AM, said:

Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

I don't see the Os lineup as filthy ... at best it's slightly above average.

Chris Davis and Adam Jones = stars
Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado = above average
Nick Markakis = below average
Ryan Flaherty, LF and DH = far below average

In the past Markakis has at least gotten on base which makes him valuable in the leadoff spot.

Weeks is an option at 2b.  Maybe he finally puts it together.

Between Lough, Reimold, and Urrita (sp) they have options for lf and dh.


I'd call it a well above average lineup.

Markakis
Machado
Crash
Jones
Wieters
Hardy
Lf
Dh
Weeks

Weeks is an option ... OK, so he's an option.  He has also been "optioned" to AAA the last 2 years by the A's.   He's now 26 years old and RW lists him as the 3rd stringer for 2B

Ok, so they also have "options" for LF and DH.  You do know that every single team in MLB has options ... doesn't make them good options.

that's 3 very weak positions ... but the O's have options.

I'll stick to my "at best it's slightly above average"
Want to list 12 better offenses? Last year they were 5th in runs, 1st in homers, 4th in OPS. Definitely more of a power team than on-base, but it is also a very young team. I imagine there is more improvement than regression from last year's numbers.




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