Jump to content

Visit Rotoworld.comRotoworld Forums  
Rotoworld: MLB | NFL | NBA | NHL | NASCAR | CFB
Sports Talk Blogs: PFT | HBT | PBT | CFT | PHT
  Visit NBCSports.com

Photo
* * * - - 2 votes

Jason Kipnis 2014 Outlook


  • Please log in to reply
730 replies to this topic

#1 Posting In The Clutch

Posting In The Clutch

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,459 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Chicago

Posted 15 November 2013 - 11:52 PM

Kipnis made a leap this year, largely due to the fact that he was able to hit lefties, something he did not do at all in 2012.

One thing both of the last two seasons have in common, though, are his strong first halves followed by much weaker second halves.

1st half of 2012 - .765 OPS, 11 HRs, 20 SBs
2nd half of 2012 - .651 OPS, 3 HRs, 11 SBs

1st half of 2013 - .897 OPS, 13 HRs, 21 SBs
2nd half of 2013 - .714 OPS, 4 HRs, 9 SBs

He'll be entering his age-27 season in 2014. Maybe he finds more consistency this year? At any rate, he's someone I'd consider targeting late 2nd round.

Oh my friends, my friends, forgive me

That I live and you are gone.

There's a grief that can't be spoken.

There's a pain goes on and on.


#2 sunnyside

sunnyside

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 241 posts

Posted 17 November 2013 - 02:14 PM

The halves make it difficult to gauge him, but thanks for reminding us about the age-27 season. I have him ranked high in my AL-only at 6th overall; I have Cano at 3rd overall, but would consider lowering him if he leaves the Bronx.

Edited by sunnyside, 17 November 2013 - 02:14 PM.


#3 Sidearmer

Sidearmer

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,064 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:New York

Posted 17 November 2013 - 08:55 PM

I was happy to grab Kipnis last year in multiple leagues in rounds 3-4. Now that he has a full season of stats there I have no problem getting him late in round 2 or round 3. Even with the 2nd half slump he's still getting that speed/power combo. Its reasonable to expect another power increase, maybe into the 20's this year.

Its also important to note there is a huge dropoff after him at 2B this year, which would make it more worthy of picking him earlier.
"I never said most of the things I said." - Yogi Berra

#4 bigbluecrew56

bigbluecrew56

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,676 posts

Posted 20 November 2013 - 10:41 PM

I would take Kipnis in the second but would hope for the third. His speed-power combo is worth the price tag. Pedroia may come at a better discount though.

#5 Sidearmer

Sidearmer

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,064 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:New York

Posted 21 November 2013 - 12:06 AM

I would take Kipnis in the second but would hope for the third. His speed-power combo is worth the price tag. Pedroia may come at a better discount though.


Is Pedroia that great for fantasy purposes? he will hit around 300, but his HR will be single digits and SB in the mid teens. RBI and Runs will be solid but he's just not an impact player. He's one of those guys that is great on a solid fantasy team, but he will never give you a significant advantage at the position over anyone else.
"I never said most of the things I said." - Yogi Berra

#6 bigbluecrew56

bigbluecrew56

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,676 posts

Posted 21 November 2013 - 10:32 AM


I would take Kipnis in the second but would hope for the third. His speed-power combo is worth the price tag. Pedroia may come at a better discount though.


Is Pedroia that great for fantasy purposes? he will hit around 300, but his HR will be single digits and SB in the mid teens. RBI and Runs will be solid but he's just not an impact player. He's one of those guys that is great on a solid fantasy team, but he will never give you a significant advantage at the position over anyone else.

Totally agree and I am a bit salty because i had him this year and was not pleased at all about the loss of power. But in his defense he was playing with a torn ligament all year in his thumb. So with that being said I have to give him the benefit of the doubt. I would still take Pedroia in the third round because he can still put up elite counting stats for a second baseman. He was not the elite Pedroia this year but he was a key member on my second place team.

Edited by bigbluecrew56, 21 November 2013 - 10:34 AM.

  • damana likes this

#7 Sidearmer

Sidearmer

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,064 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:New York

Posted 06 December 2013 - 01:50 PM

With Cano to Seattle I think this puts Kipnis at least in the conversation for top 2B. Its hard to ignore his 30+ SB compared to Cano's 2-4. I would take Kipnis 100% of the time in round 2 instead of Cano in round 1.
  • mavsfan23 likes this
"I never said most of the things I said." - Yogi Berra

#8 2ndCitySox

2ndCitySox

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,537 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 06 December 2013 - 09:16 PM

With Cano to Seattle I think this puts Kipnis at least in the conversation for top 2B. Its hard to ignore his 30+ SB compared to Cano's 2-4. I would take Kipnis 100% of the time in round 2 instead of Cano in round 1.


I agree for roto. For H2H, kipper's last two second halves would concern me.
All-Icon Team:
C- Carlton Fisk
1B- Frank Thomas
2B- Ryne Sandberg
SS- Ozzie Smith
3B- Wade Boggs
CF- Rickey
LF- Kirk Gibson
RF- Chili Davis
DH- Eddie Murray

SP- Nolan Ryan
SP- Orel Herschiser
SP- Greg Maddux
SP- Roger Clemens
SP- BlackJack McDowell

RP- Eck

#9 Sidearmer

Sidearmer

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,064 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:New York

Posted 06 December 2013 - 09:21 PM


With Cano to Seattle I think this puts Kipnis at least in the conversation for top 2B. Its hard to ignore his 30+ SB compared to Cano's 2-4. I would take Kipnis 100% of the time in round 2 instead of Cano in round 1.


I agree for roto. For H2H, kipper's last two second halves would concern me.


Personlly, I usually ignore that kind of stuff. I always feel like those trends can change from year to year. I'm just looking at overall he will give you 15-20 HR and 30 SB from 2B. No one really can come close to that. Bating 3rd he will rack up RBI and R.
"I never said most of the things I said." - Yogi Berra

#10 bigbluecrew56

bigbluecrew56

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,676 posts

Posted 07 December 2013 - 12:01 AM



With Cano to Seattle I think this puts Kipnis at least in the conversation for top 2B. Its hard to ignore his 30+ SB compared to Cano's 2-4. I would take Kipnis 100% of the time in round 2 instead of Cano in round 1.


I agree for roto. For H2H, kipper's last two second halves would concern me.


Personlly, I usually ignore that kind of stuff. I always feel like those trends can change from year to year. I'm just looking at overall he will give you 15-20 HR and 30 SB from 2B. No one really can come close to that. Bating 3rd he will rack up RBI and R.

I agree I would take Kipnis over Cano.
  • Sidearmer likes this

#11 jspeco9

jspeco9

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,031 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 16 December 2013 - 10:38 AM

Pedroia averaged 16 HR/year from 08-12, how can anyone say he's a single-digit HR guy? He dealt with an thumb injury all year, and recently got the surgery. More R+RBIs from batting 3rd in Boston, and probably 15 SBs less than Kipnis. Career .302 hitter. More importantly: much safer pick.

I'd go with boring Pedroia in the 3rd than reach for Kipnis.

#12 FantasySportsEnthusiast

FantasySportsEnthusiast

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 188 posts

Posted 16 December 2013 - 12:34 PM

Kipnis will go after Cano so I would rather have Kipnis. You will be getting him at a cheaper price(in an auction or one round later) and he could end up outperforming Cano. Cano is on my avoid list this year. I have Kipnis taking over the top spot at 2B after the 2014 season.

#13 Backdoor Slider

Backdoor Slider

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,461 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 16 December 2013 - 02:51 PM

Pedroia averaged 16 HR/year from 08-12, how can anyone say he's a single-digit HR guy? He dealt with an thumb injury all year, and recently got the surgery. More R+RBIs from batting 3rd in Boston, and probably 15 SBs less than Kipnis. Career .302 hitter. More importantly: much safer pick.

I'd go with boring Pedroia in the 3rd than reach for Kipnis.


Gotta think:

Kipnis- .270/85/17/80/30
Pedroia- .300/85/15/90/20

Looking at the past couple years, I'm not sure we can assume many more counting stats for Pedroia. To me, you're trading BA for ~10 more SBs & maybe a bit more power. Close.
Where I disagree though is your assessment that Pedroia is safer. Pedroia just turned 30 and seems to often be playing banged up.
Kipnis is 26. Entering his prime, and has put up 2 very strong seasons in a row.
Gotta think the extra SBs (I'll sacrifice the AVG) & the age/injury concerns make Kipnis the safer pick.
**Poster Formerly Known as 2Balls

Keep up to 7 (Lose round per keeper):

Goldschmidt
JFernandez
Bryce
Kipnis
CGomez
--------------
TFrazier
Teheran

C.Davis
Pence
CSantana
CHamels
DMesoraco

#14 2ndCitySox

2ndCitySox

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,537 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 16 December 2013 - 08:48 PM

Based on my amazing projections, he's in the same tier as cano. My league uses OBP though. But, it's H2H, so I think I'd take Cano until Kip stops sucking in the 2nd half
All-Icon Team:
C- Carlton Fisk
1B- Frank Thomas
2B- Ryne Sandberg
SS- Ozzie Smith
3B- Wade Boggs
CF- Rickey
LF- Kirk Gibson
RF- Chili Davis
DH- Eddie Murray

SP- Nolan Ryan
SP- Orel Herschiser
SP- Greg Maddux
SP- Roger Clemens
SP- BlackJack McDowell

RP- Eck

#15 bigbluecrew56

bigbluecrew56

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,676 posts

Posted 16 December 2013 - 09:15 PM

Pedroia averaged 16 HR/year from 08-12, how can anyone say he's a single-digit HR guy? He dealt with an thumb injury all year, and recently got the surgery. More R+RBIs from batting 3rd in Boston, and probably 15 SBs less than Kipnis. Career .302 hitter. More importantly: much safer pick.

I'd go with boring Pedroia in the 3rd than reach for Kipnis.

I am with you on this. I am snagging a 3B like Wright or Beltre in the second and be more then happy to settle on Pedroia in the third.

#16 Backdoor Slider

Backdoor Slider

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,461 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 16 December 2013 - 09:43 PM


Pedroia averaged 16 HR/year from 08-12, how can anyone say he's a single-digit HR guy? He dealt with an thumb injury all year, and recently got the surgery. More R+RBIs from batting 3rd in Boston, and probably 15 SBs less than Kipnis. Career .302 hitter. More importantly: much safer pick.

I'd go with boring Pedroia in the 3rd than reach for Kipnis.

I am with you on this. I am snagging a 3B like Wright or Beltre in the second and be more then happy to settle on Pedroia in the third.


Sounds great, but if you're picking ~16 in the 2nd, no guarantee any one of those guys comes back to you in the 3rd. That's not really the argument.
**Poster Formerly Known as 2Balls

Keep up to 7 (Lose round per keeper):

Goldschmidt
JFernandez
Bryce
Kipnis
CGomez
--------------
TFrazier
Teheran

C.Davis
Pence
CSantana
CHamels
DMesoraco

#17 bigbluecrew56

bigbluecrew56

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,676 posts

Posted 16 December 2013 - 09:58 PM



Pedroia averaged 16 HR/year from 08-12, how can anyone say he's a single-digit HR guy? He dealt with an thumb injury all year, and recently got the surgery. More R+RBIs from batting 3rd in Boston, and probably 15 SBs less than Kipnis. Career .302 hitter. More importantly: much safer pick.

I'd go with boring Pedroia in the 3rd than reach for Kipnis.

I am with you on this. I am snagging a 3B like Wright or Beltre in the second and be more then happy to settle on Pedroia in the third.


Sounds great, but if you're picking ~16 in the 2nd, no guarantee any one of those guys comes back to you in the 3rd. That's not really the argument.

True. So with that being said I am probably not ending up with either of them since the price of a second rounder seems steep. Kipnis I will take a long hard look if i end up with a back end second round pick. I have an MI spot so I might just take Pedroia as well if he is sitting there in the third. Second base is one of the shallowest spots this year.

Edited by bigbluecrew56, 16 December 2013 - 09:59 PM.


#18 Sidearmer

Sidearmer

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,064 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:New York

Posted 17 December 2013 - 12:42 AM

I think the first half/second half thing is so overrated. I think he's just streaky, and both years happened to get hot same time. People forget his rookie year he dominated at the end of the season. Also last year, he was off to a horrible start in April. Never makes sense when players get labeled with this, especially so early in their careers. He could easily just do well second half this year and start badly and everyone will forget about it. To me its a just a random occurrence and is one of those things that just have to occur to a player because it has to happen in baseball but there is no real reason for it.

The only guy I ever remember sustaining this rate for a material amount of time was Teixeira but even he broke that eventually.

With this being said, Kipnis is well worth a second round pick. I'll admit the posters here have warmed me up to Pedroia but Kipnis still has the SB upside. With Kipnis I think you can almost guarantee 15/30 with room for improvement in power. You know Pedroia will be competitive in average but SB steadily declining and even with the surgery I'd put Pedroia at 12-15 HR this year (wheras Kipnis I have at 15-20). Both guys hitting 3rd in good lineups (although Pedroia losing Ellsbury is huge, and reasonable to expect a better season from Bourn which helps Kipnis), don't think either gets a boost there.

I think both guys are value picks (Kipnis in 2nd, Pedroia in 3rd). With the questions about Cano and severe lack of depth this year at 2B it'd be wise to get one of them. Only guy after these top guys I trust is maybe Carpenter but he could end up just being average and runs next year.
"I never said most of the things I said." - Yogi Berra

#19 The Big Bat Theory

The Big Bat Theory

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,419 posts
  • Gender:Not Telling

Posted 17 December 2013 - 04:30 PM

I'd probably say Kipnis is third but his inability to finish strong turns him into the Mark Trumbo of 2B. Both Cano and Pedroia (barring any injuries) have proved to be steady all season long. Until Kipnis can prove that I wouldn't want to have to count on him on my team just at the time of year I would need him the most.

The fact that Pedroia managed 9 homers with a thumb in absolutely horrible condition all season long (he injuried it in either the first of second game of the season, I forget which) makes me think he'll have a minimum of at least 15 homers and maybe more next season. The guy was in terrible pain too with ever bat contact. Perdoia is a real iron man and though he will slow down eventually I don't think it will be this season offensively (perhaps some defensively tho) so I really don't think Kipnis will supersede him yet for the number 2 second basemen in fantasy (offensive) baseball.

When Kipnis can put a full season together at his first half of a season stats rate, then I'd definitely consider moving him up. But he has to prove he can do that to me first.

#20 Slatykamora

Slatykamora

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,683 posts

Posted 17 December 2013 - 05:09 PM

I'd probably say Kipnis is third but his inability to finish strong turns him into the Mark Trumbo of 2B. Both Cano and Pedroia (barring any injuries) have proved to be steady all season long. Until Kipnis can prove that I wouldn't want to have to count on him on my team just at the time of year I would need him the most.

The fact that Pedroia managed 9 homers with a thumb in absolutely horrible condition all season long (he injuried it in either the first of second game of the season, I forget which) makes me think he'll have a minimum of at least 15 homers and maybe more next season. The guy was in terrible pain too with ever bat contact. Perdoia is a real iron man and though he will slow down eventually I don't think it will be this season offensively (perhaps some defensively tho) so I really don't think Kipnis will supersede him yet for the number 2 second basemen in fantasy (offensive) baseball.

When Kipnis can put a full season together at his first half of a season stats rate, then I'd definitely consider moving him up. But he has to prove he can do that to me first.


They're a lot streaky hitters in baseball

Kipnis draw a lot walks and steals bases. Kipnis profiles better towards balls in play.

Trumbo is none of that. He is just all power. Kipnis has a WAY MORE patient approach at the plate.

Terrible comparison.

Agreed about Pedroia though.

Edited by Slatykamora, 17 December 2013 - 05:12 PM.





0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users