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Josh Johnson 2014 OutlookPetco? Boing!


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#1 Cmilne23

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 12:30 AM

Signs with Padres.  Move him way up your draft lists.  Petco is where pitchers who are dead go to get on life support and revive their careers.  Johnson is going to be a big steal next season.

#2 PPolanco

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 01:34 AM

Damnit know I'm probably going to draft him. He looked finished last season but of course there's very little analysis needed here: back to the NL + Petco = fantasy relevant.
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#3 Golden Spikes

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 01:45 AM

Padres quitely could have the best rotation in the NL if healthy

Johnson
Cashner
Ross
Luebke
Kennedy
5 man keeper 5x5 Roto 10 yrs running 3x Champ

C- Weiters   1B- Goldy (k)
2b- Hill SS- Hanley (k)
3B- Beltre (k)   CI- Encarnacion (k)
MI- Miller, Baez
OF- Cargo (k), Pence, Holliday
OF- Eaton, Soriano, KDavis

SP- Bumgarner, Cole, Wacha, Cashner
SP- Minor (dl), Yordanny, Archer, Ubaldo
RP- Holland, Roberston, Chapman (dl), Balfour
RP- Melancon, C.Martinez, Hoover

#4 brockpapersizer

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 02:14 AM

View PostGolden Spikes, on 20 November 2013 - 01:45 AM, said:

Padres quitely could have the best rotation in the NL if healthy

Johnson
Cashner
Ross
Luebke
Kennedy

Very fantasy useful, but I dont think its the best in the NL.  Johnson has looked awful the last two years despite being pretty healthy.  He looks like he'll never be the Ace he once was.   I have really soured on Kennedy last two years too.  Cashner and Lubke are pretty good though. Ross seems solid, but nothing special.

It's a good rotation of guys, if healthy better than any rotation theyve had in a while, but the true talent of that staff doesnt compare to a healthy Washington, Atlanta, or Los Angeles IMO.  

All 5 guys should probably be drafted in decent sized mix leagues.
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#5 Theoneupper

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 02:34 AM

View PostGolden Spikes, on 20 November 2013 - 01:45 AM, said:

Padres quitely could have the best rotation in the NL if healthy

Johnson
Cashner
Ross
Luebke
Kennedy
Not even close to the best rotation. I mean, its a good rotation in a great park, but no.

Edited by Theoneupper, 20 November 2013 - 02:35 AM.


#6 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 02:44 AM

View PostGolden Spikes, on 20 November 2013 - 01:45 AM, said:

Padres quitely could have the best rotation in the NL if healthy

Johnson
Cashner
Ross
Luebke
Kennedy

There is some talent there, but no way.

Johnson is looking like a has-been and is extremely injury-prone.
Kennedy is a has-been.
Luebke hasn't pitched in almost two years.
Ross is league average at best.
Cashner is injury-prone.

A lot of things have to go right next season for that staff.

Edited by Posting In The Clutch, 20 November 2013 - 02:45 AM.

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#7 96mnc

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 02:59 AM

View PostPosting In The Clutch, on 20 November 2013 - 02:44 AM, said:

View PostGolden Spikes, on 20 November 2013 - 01:45 AM, said:

Padres quitely could have the best rotation in the NL if healthy

Johnson
Cashner
Ross
Luebke
Kennedy

There is some talent there, but no way.

Johnson is looking like a has-been and is extremely injury-prone.
Kennedy is a has-been.
Luebke hasn't pitched in almost two years.
Ross is league average at best.
Cashner is injury-prone.

A lot of things have to go right next season for that staff.

Agreed with most of the above except possibly Ross which shocks me because a year ago I thought he was garbage.  He showed me something during the second half of the year though which will keep me from completely writing him off.

Cashner was pretty healthy this year as well and showed a lot of growth as a pitcher.



#8 Golden Spikes

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 07:22 AM

Padres also have Stults, Erlin, Smith, Wisler, and Sampson, along with Kelly and Weiland coming back as well.

that is a deep starting staff
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C- Weiters   1B- Goldy (k)
2b- Hill SS- Hanley (k)
3B- Beltre (k)   CI- Encarnacion (k)
MI- Miller, Baez
OF- Cargo (k), Pence, Holliday
OF- Eaton, Soriano, KDavis

SP- Bumgarner, Cole, Wacha, Cashner
SP- Minor (dl), Yordanny, Archer, Ubaldo
RP- Holland, Roberston, Chapman (dl), Balfour
RP- Melancon, C.Martinez, Hoover

#9 parrothead

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 10:38 AM

Great signing, pretty low risk.  Now they need a bat or two...
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#10 MrMartyBarrett

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 10:48 AM

Worthwhile risk on both sides here.  

SD gets an upside guy willing to try and resurrect his career at 1 year and reasonable price
Johnson gets to try and reestablish long term value in that cavernous park.  

Win/Win if he stays healthy.  I really like this signing for the Padres.  If he gets hurt again, there's no long term risk.

#11 parrothead

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 11:49 AM

View PostMrMartyBarrett, on 20 November 2013 - 10:48 AM, said:

Worthwhile risk on both sides here.  

SD gets an upside guy willing to try and resurrect his career at 1 year and reasonable price
Johnson gets to try and reestablish long term value in that cavernous park.  

Win/Win if he stays healthy.  I really like this signing for the Padres.  If he gets hurt again, there's no long term risk.
Actually if he gets hurt and doesn't make 7 starts, Pads have a $4 Million option for the next year.  I think with their starting rotation depth its a really good signing because this guy has the upside to be an All-Star starter, while I like the Padres depth in their rotation, I think it lacks that frontline anchor like you see in the teams they are trying to catch, Kershaw with LA, I think Bumgarner or Cain with the Giants.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#12 Golden Spikes

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 01:39 PM

View Postparrothead, on 20 November 2013 - 11:49 AM, said:

View PostMrMartyBarrett, on 20 November 2013 - 10:48 AM, said:

Worthwhile risk on both sides here.  

SD gets an upside guy willing to try and resurrect his career at 1 year and reasonable price
Johnson gets to try and reestablish long term value in that cavernous park.  

Win/Win if he stays healthy.  I really like this signing for the Padres.  If he gets hurt again, there's no long term risk.
Actually if he gets hurt and doesn't make 7 starts, Pads have a $4 Million option for the next year.  I think with their starting rotation depth its a really good signing because this guy has the upside to be an All-Star starter, while I like the Padres depth in their rotation, I think it lacks that frontline anchor like you see in the teams they are trying to catch, Kershaw with LA, I think Bumgarner or Cain with the Giants.

I dunno the way Cashner and Ross pitched in the 2nd half last year, I think both of them, especially Cash can be right up there, not Kershaw obviously, but in that 2nd tier of Aces

now if we could replace Alonso I would be stoked
5 man keeper 5x5 Roto 10 yrs running 3x Champ

C- Weiters   1B- Goldy (k)
2b- Hill SS- Hanley (k)
3B- Beltre (k)   CI- Encarnacion (k)
MI- Miller, Baez
OF- Cargo (k), Pence, Holliday
OF- Eaton, Soriano, KDavis

SP- Bumgarner, Cole, Wacha, Cashner
SP- Minor (dl), Yordanny, Archer, Ubaldo
RP- Holland, Roberston, Chapman (dl), Balfour
RP- Melancon, C.Martinez, Hoover

#13 umphrey

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 02:23 PM

A guy that's been on my do not draft list for a couple years now, I might actually be a buyer this year.  In 81 innings last year he still had a career high 9.18 K/9 and while his walks were up (3.32 BB/9) they weren't too outrageous.  His big problem was the home run ball, at 1.66 HR/9, good for 6th worst among pitchers with 80+ innings.

His xFIP of 3.58 would indicate that in an average park he would have been a fantasy #3 - decent ERA with a lot of strikeouts.  Moving to Petco, one might think he could actually outperform his xFIP, which means that a fantasy #3 would be his floor and that he will probably be better.

It changes year to year, but Petco is usually in the bottom 5 in HR park factor while the Rogers Centre in Toronto is generally top 5.

I think he'll end up in the range of #35-40 in my SP rankings.

#14 parrothead

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 04:20 PM

View PostGolden Spikes, on 20 November 2013 - 01:39 PM, said:

View Postparrothead, on 20 November 2013 - 11:49 AM, said:

View PostMrMartyBarrett, on 20 November 2013 - 10:48 AM, said:

Worthwhile risk on both sides here.  

SD gets an upside guy willing to try and resurrect his career at 1 year and reasonable price
Johnson gets to try and reestablish long term value in that cavernous park.  

Win/Win if he stays healthy.  I really like this signing for the Padres.  If he gets hurt again, there's no long term risk.
Actually if he gets hurt and doesn't make 7 starts, Pads have a $4 Million option for the next year.  I think with their starting rotation depth its a really good signing because this guy has the upside to be an All-Star starter, while I like the Padres depth in their rotation, I think it lacks that frontline anchor like you see in the teams they are trying to catch, Kershaw with LA, I think Bumgarner or Cain with the Giants.

I dunno the way Cashner and Ross pitched in the 2nd half last year, I think both of them, especially Cash can be right up there, not Kershaw obviously, but in that 2nd tier of Aces

now if we could replace Alonso I would be stoked
That's the issue with a lot of the guys in the line up is that there is an argument for doing nothing pretty much for every spot:

1B - Alonso - "lets give him another season"
C - Grandal who is probably gonna miss time coming back from ACL so they want to see what he has so wont upgrade C in offseason.
2B - Gyorko - obviously will not replace
SS - can be electric basestealer but also coming off suspension
3B - Headley - this is where I would want to see them make a move and lose this guy, but it wont happen.
OF - Venable - 20/20 "breakout", Maybin still giving him the benefit of the doubt and Quentin - again injury question mark, management will want to see what he can do.

Very frustrating because I think with a bold move or two, we can be in the mix.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#15 gameover413

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 09:45 AM

Oh Josh Johnson... you've done it to me again... *SWOONS*

I hated the trade to Toronto... drafted him anyway, because I have a huge man-crush on him.  Now that he's back in the NL in a pitcher friendly environment.. HELLO AGAIN!

if he can even be middle of the road Josh Johnson from Miami, he'll be solid.  Could be a steal this year
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#16 bigbluecrew56

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 10:25 AM

Just stay away guys. JJ is only a name at this point. I would rather have any of the 4 starters in that Padres rotation then him. He is waiver wire fodder to me unless he can recapture some of his early career magic. His fastball the last few years is around 91-93. During his peak years he would pump 97-98 with ease. His secondary stuff leaves little to be desired without that power heater. He pitched the last few years in Petco East down in Miami wether it was that huge football stadium or the new Grand Canyon in Marlins park and he was mediocre. His problem is he gets singled to death now because he is just very hittable.

Edited by bigbluecrew56, 21 November 2013 - 10:29 AM.


#17 96mnc

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 12:24 PM

View Postparrothead, on 20 November 2013 - 04:20 PM, said:

View PostGolden Spikes, on 20 November 2013 - 01:39 PM, said:

View Postparrothead, on 20 November 2013 - 11:49 AM, said:

View PostMrMartyBarrett, on 20 November 2013 - 10:48 AM, said:

Worthwhile risk on both sides here.  

SD gets an upside guy willing to try and resurrect his career at 1 year and reasonable price
Johnson gets to try and reestablish long term value in that cavernous park.  

Win/Win if he stays healthy.  I really like this signing for the Padres.  If he gets hurt again, there's no long term risk.
Actually if he gets hurt and doesn't make 7 starts, Pads have a $4 Million option for the next year.  I think with their starting rotation depth its a really good signing because this guy has the upside to be an All-Star starter, while I like the Padres depth in their rotation, I think it lacks that frontline anchor like you see in the teams they are trying to catch, Kershaw with LA, I think Bumgarner or Cain with the Giants.

I dunno the way Cashner and Ross pitched in the 2nd half last year, I think both of them, especially Cash can be right up there, not Kershaw obviously, but in that 2nd tier of Aces

now if we could replace Alonso I would be stoked
That's the issue with a lot of the guys in the line up is that there is an argument for doing nothing pretty much for every spot:

1B - Alonso - "lets give him another season"
C - Grandal who is probably gonna miss time coming back from ACL so they want to see what he has so wont upgrade C in offseason.
2B - Gyorko - obviously will not replace
SS - can be electric basestealer but also coming off suspension
3B - Headley - this is where I would want to see them make a move and lose this guy, but it wont happen.
OF - Venable - 20/20 "breakout", Maybin still giving him the benefit of the doubt and Quentin - again injury question mark, management will want to see what he can do.

Very frustrating because I think with a bold move or two, we can be in the mix.

We should probably start a 2014 Padres thread but they should dump Quentin to an AL team so he can DH and give his job to Blanks.

No need to trade Headley right now unless blown away, they missed the sell high window.  Hopefully he gets off to a hot start and can be dealt at the deadline.

Venable is the personification of a sell high as well but they won't do it.

Edited by 96mnc, 21 November 2013 - 12:25 PM.


#18 baltimore_boy

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 04:49 PM

I really like this move for Johnson. His value in drafts will still be low, and he's shown in the past that he can be good, and Petco has helped many pitchers in the past be fantasy relevant. Clayton Richard was solid for a few years, Peavy was better in SD, Ross was great for the second half of last year, Cashner showed his potential last year with Petco, and even Volquez was useful in 2012. After last year, he won't be going early in drafts. Wouldn't be surprised to see him have a solid bounceback year. The reward if he does return to form this year outweighs the risk IMO.
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#19 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 06:27 PM

I'm gonna make the market for him right here:

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#20 klove42

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Posted 22 November 2013 - 02:42 PM

I just hope this move doesn't sky rocket him up draft boards that much. I like him, but he will land on the DL at somepoint. If he can be a late round flyer than I'll bite, but we all know he is a huge risk.
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