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Doug Martin 2014 Season OutlookWill Hamster get his Muscle back?


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#1 cbe_88

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 03:46 PM

Of all the 2013 first round RB busts I might take a chance on next year, it will probably be Dougy Fresh. The torn labrum zapped his 2013 campaign only 5 weeks in, and even in those 5 weeks he was only okay, barely averaging 10 points a week.

But I think this o-line is still talented, and can bounce back and stay healthier next year. And I think Glennon takes another step forward next year and VJax helps keep a legitimate passing threat so defenses can't just stack the box on Martin. And I don't think the "promising" play of Mike James or Rainey will force any kind of true timeshare. One of the first things Lovie Smith said when getting hired as the HC is that he wants that run-first smashmouth offense, mentioning only Doug Martin as his key piece.

I'll be strongly considering him next year. I think he'll put in a healthy camp, and be ready to bounce back. It will be interesting to see where his ADP shapes up.

Thoughts?

#2 CL3VELANDBR0WNS

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 03:49 PM

I play dynasty but right now his ADP looks like 2nd round, those who like him will likely take him early 2nd/late 1st. Those who don't will likely pass on him or take him in the late 2nd.
If you look at his stats, he has never been a force to start off the year, even in his amazing rookie season.

Edited by CL3VELANDBR0WNS, 09 January 2014 - 03:50 PM.

14 tm non-ppr dynasty 30-man
QB- RG3, Carr
RB- Martin, Gio, Pierre, DMC, Bryce, Dunbar, Stewart, Riddick.
WR- Sammy Watkins, Michael Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, DeAndre Hopkins, Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Kenny Britt, Mike Williams, Brian Quick, Marquess Wilson
TE- Gronk, Reed,CJF
DT- Sen'Derrick Marks
LB-Mosley, Shazier
CB- Justin Gilbert
S- Cyprien
IR- Blackmon, KHunter, Alonso, Gordon, DWashington

#3 MySoxrRed

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 03:51 PM

I am keeping an eye on him. In my three keeper league I own his rights so have to decide what to do with him. He looked good his rookie year. I dont see how he could be bad all of a sudden. Just a bad year for that team really.
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#4 cbe_88

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 03:57 PM

View PostCL3VELANDBR0WNS, on 09 January 2014 - 03:49 PM, said:

I play dynasty but right now his ADP looks like 2nd round, those who like him will likely take him early 2nd/late 1st. Those who don't will likely pass on him or take him in the late 2nd.
If you look at his stats, he has never been a force to start off the year, even in his amazing rookie season.

I agree that I think he'll end up going that early. Maybe even late 1st. And depending on my draft position, I might chance it with him, being that it looks like all the true quality RB's will be swiped up in the first 30 or so picks. The 2nd round is where I might grab him.

View PostMySoxrRed, on 09 January 2014 - 03:51 PM, said:

I am keeping an eye on him. In my three keeper league I own his rights so have to decide what to do with him. He looked good his rookie year. I dont see how he could be bad all of a sudden. Just a bad year for that team really.

I think he was victim of his terrible team before he got hurt. Who are your other choices for keepers?

#5 CL3VELANDBR0WNS

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 04:13 PM

Also, I bet the Bucs draft some line help. Carl Nicks was a huge loss. They have a pretty good defense with McCoy, David, and Revis but they might go pass rusher in the draft. The WRs are solid and Underwood proved he is capable depth. Tim Wright is a serviceable pass catching TE and I doubt they go with a blocking only TE in round 1. It only makes sense that they address either the O-line or the D-line.
14 tm non-ppr dynasty 30-man
QB- RG3, Carr
RB- Martin, Gio, Pierre, DMC, Bryce, Dunbar, Stewart, Riddick.
WR- Sammy Watkins, Michael Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, DeAndre Hopkins, Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Kenny Britt, Mike Williams, Brian Quick, Marquess Wilson
TE- Gronk, Reed,CJF
DT- Sen'Derrick Marks
LB-Mosley, Shazier
CB- Justin Gilbert
S- Cyprien
IR- Blackmon, KHunter, Alonso, Gordon, DWashington

#6 cbe_88

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 04:17 PM

Carl Nicks is a good point brought up. HUGE loss...I forget his name, but I remember they had some pretty viable depth behind him when he got hurt a couple years ago, but apparently not in 2013. They just weren't the same elite unit. If they get o-line help early in April, that will push me more towards banking on a bounce back year from DMart.

I also think Glennon will stick to him pretty good as safety valve getting some dumps to him regularly every week. Developing QB's love DMart's type of pass catching RB.

#7 CL3VELANDBR0WNS

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 04:20 PM

View Postcbe_88, on 09 January 2014 - 04:17 PM, said:

Carl Nicks is a good point brought up. HUGE loss...I forget his name, but I remember they had some pretty viable depth behind him when he got hurt a couple years ago, but apparently not in 2013. They just weren't the same elite unit. If they get o-line help early in April, that will push me more towards banking on a bounce back year from DMart.

I also think Glennon will stick to him pretty good as safety valve getting some dumps to him regularly every week. Developing QB's love DMart's type of pass catching RB.
I think their O-line is pretty good all around but Glennon can't handle terrorizing pass rushers and I am not sure about their depth. Plus, I think they may just go BPA(Best player available) because what do the Bucs' really need? I could really see this team bouncing back.
I listened to a google hangout a few nights ago about draft discussion and some draft guys were saying that this is the year to take an O-lineman who needs a year or two of development because I guess there's an abundance of them in this draft.

Edited by CL3VELANDBR0WNS, 09 January 2014 - 04:23 PM.

14 tm non-ppr dynasty 30-man
QB- RG3, Carr
RB- Martin, Gio, Pierre, DMC, Bryce, Dunbar, Stewart, Riddick.
WR- Sammy Watkins, Michael Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, DeAndre Hopkins, Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Kenny Britt, Mike Williams, Brian Quick, Marquess Wilson
TE- Gronk, Reed,CJF
DT- Sen'Derrick Marks
LB-Mosley, Shazier
CB- Justin Gilbert
S- Cyprien
IR- Blackmon, KHunter, Alonso, Gordon, DWashington

#8 ipstaff

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 04:36 PM

cbe, I'm with you here; not ready to write Martin off completely yet.  Between the Schiano/Freeman nonsense and the injury, it's probably too early to give up on him.  And Lovie's comments are supportive.

#9 cbe_88

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 06:07 PM

View PostCL3VELANDBR0WNS, on 09 January 2014 - 04:20 PM, said:

I think their O-line is pretty good all around but Glennon can't handle terrorizing pass rushers and I am not sure about their depth. Plus, I think they may just go BPA(Best player available) because what do the Bucs' really need? I could really see this team bouncing back.
I listened to a google hangout a few nights ago about draft discussion and some draft guys were saying that this is the year to take an O-lineman who needs a year or two of development because I guess there's an abundance of them in this draft.

After thinking about it, you're right. This is a surprisingly complete team for a what, 4-12 year???? Blame Schiano, that team wasn't behind him all year. I will say this, OUTSIDE of Gerald McCoy I know it's a little suspect on the D-line. I think there were some benchings going on, and some under performing. And I think you're right, even with the loss of Nicks, it's still all around unit of an oline.

#10 CL3VELANDBR0WNS

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 06:34 PM

Don't quote me on anything for sure though. All I know is that Bobby Rainey and Mike James had success behind their O-line.
I am not lineman king or anything though.

Edited by CL3VELANDBR0WNS, 09 January 2014 - 06:34 PM.

14 tm non-ppr dynasty 30-man
QB- RG3, Carr
RB- Martin, Gio, Pierre, DMC, Bryce, Dunbar, Stewart, Riddick.
WR- Sammy Watkins, Michael Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, DeAndre Hopkins, Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Kenny Britt, Mike Williams, Brian Quick, Marquess Wilson
TE- Gronk, Reed,CJF
DT- Sen'Derrick Marks
LB-Mosley, Shazier
CB- Justin Gilbert
S- Cyprien
IR- Blackmon, KHunter, Alonso, Gordon, DWashington

#11 fredth3cat

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 06:44 PM

View Postcbe_88, on 09 January 2014 - 06:07 PM, said:

View PostCL3VELANDBR0WNS, on 09 January 2014 - 04:20 PM, said:

I think their O-line is pretty good all around but Glennon can't handle terrorizing pass rushers and I am not sure about their depth. Plus, I think they may just go BPA(Best player available) because what do the Bucs' really need? I could really see this team bouncing back.
I listened to a google hangout a few nights ago about draft discussion and some draft guys were saying that this is the year to take an O-lineman who needs a year or two of development because I guess there's an abundance of them in this draft.

After thinking about it, you're right. This is a surprisingly complete team for a what, 4-12 year???? Blame Schiano, that team wasn't behind him all year. I will say this, OUTSIDE of Gerald McCoy I know it's a little suspect on the D-line. I think there were some benchings going on, and some under performing. And I think you're right, even with the loss of Nicks, it's still all around unit of an oline.

Definitely a team that should bounce back similar to how the Chiefs did this year. Assuming all signs point to Martin being the guy next year, I think he's great value if you can get him in the second round.

#12 Fantasymaestro

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 07:39 PM

Definitely looking to get him if he is available second round. He has a good floor and a definite backup in Mike James. Would love getting a Lacy/Martin rb field in first two rounds. I am planning on going old fashioned and stick with rb-rb or rb-te first two rounds.

I see a bounceback year for hium this year
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#13 Nguvocity

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 01:42 AM

View PostFantasymaestro, on 09 January 2014 - 07:39 PM, said:

Definitely looking to get him if he is available second round. He has a good floor and a definite backup in Mike James. Would love getting a Lacy/Martin rb field in first two rounds. I am planning on going old fashioned and stick with rb-rb or rb-te first two rounds.

I see a bounceback year for hium this year

I am hoping to draft 3 rb in the rounds if i can get guys like lacy/stacy/bell in the low first round and then get doug in the second and morris in the third if he drops there.   I feel like with his bad year, people will sleep on him
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WR: Josh Gordon, Vincent Jackson, James Jones, Percy Harvin, Michael Crabtree
RB: Marshawn Lynch, Zac Stacy,Ryan Mathews, Giovani Bernard, Andre Ellington
TE: Jordan Reed,John Carlson
FLEX: (RB/WR/TE)
K: Ryan Succop
DEF: SF(streaming)
D: Sean Lee (Streaming)

#14 cbe_88

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 10:25 AM

View PostFantasymaestro, on 09 January 2014 - 07:39 PM, said:

Definitely looking to get him if he is available second round. He has a good floor and a definite backup in Mike James. Would love getting a Lacy/Martin rb field in first two rounds. I am planning on going old fashioned and stick with rb-rb or rb-te first two rounds.

I see a bounceback year for hium this year

Are we sure Mike James is the sure handcuff? Rainey had a few nice runs last year too. Both of these backups had nice games against soft matchups so it's hard to gauge who Lovie will like better, and who he puts further up on the depth chart behind DMart. Mike James was the true backup last year, but Rainey actually had to play for a longer period last year, so he played decently for a longer period. I think the chances might still be James, but I wouldn't count out Rainey at all.

Hopefully the backup RB situation takes clear shape in the offseason. Rainey isn't coming off a serious injury either.

#15 Iron-cock

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 10:55 AM

Doug Martin was below 4.2 yards a carry in only 2 games last year, versus the Jets and the Cardinals.  The Cards were #1 in run defense, the Jets were #3.

He probably would have bounced back had he played the full year, but Rainey and James got those favorable match ups instead.
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#16 cbe_88

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 11:08 AM

View PostIron-cock, on 10 January 2014 - 10:55 AM, said:

Doug Martin was below 4.2 yards a carry in only 2 games last year, versus the Jets and the Cardinals.  The Cards were #1 in run defense, the Jets were #3.

He probably would have bounced back had he played the full year, but Rainey and James got those favorable match ups instead.

Before he got hurt, he was only on pace to be the 21st best fantasy RB. But I tend to agree, I think, had he stayed healthy, his play would have improved as the year went on to the tune of a top10 rb, or at LEAST top15. Doug Martin in 2nd round material to me. With consideration of end of the 1st round if I had to depending on how the first round goes of course.

#17 Fantasymaestro

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 03:09 PM

View Postcbe_88, on 10 January 2014 - 10:25 AM, said:

View PostFantasymaestro, on 09 January 2014 - 07:39 PM, said:

Definitely looking to get him if he is available second round. He has a good floor and a definite backup in Mike James. Would love getting a Lacy/Martin rb field in first two rounds. I am planning on going old fashioned and stick with rb-rb or rb-te first two rounds.

I see a bounceback year for hium this year

Are we sure Mike James is the sure handcuff? Rainey had a few nice runs last year too. Both of these backups had nice games against soft matchups so it's hard to gauge who Lovie will like better, and who he puts further up on the depth chart behind DMart. Mike James was the true backup last year, but Rainey actually had to play for a longer period last year, so he played decently for a longer period. I think the chances might still be James, but I wouldn't count out Rainey at all.

Hopefully the backup RB situation takes clear shape in the offseason. Rainey isn't coming off a serious injury either.

Mike James did not have an easy schedule. He started two games against 2 top 4 defenses. Against Carolina he had a repectable 3.9 ypc considering their defense. Against seattle he had a ridiculous 128 yards on 28 carries. I think he stays as backup
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#18 hotel06

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 03:20 PM

Half his O-line had MRSA, he played v.s. the Jets and Cardinals in 2 of the only 5 games he played, and he dealt with Josh Freeman as his QB and a transition to a 3rd-round rookie QB.

Yeah, he'll easily bounce back in 2014.

His situation reminds me a little of McCoy's from the previous season - had a mediocre year and had a backup come in and put up huge numbers.  McCoy was being drafted in the late 1st and sometimes in the late 2nd.

We all know how that turned out.

#19 RMJ_12

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 05:03 PM

View PostNguvocity, on 10 January 2014 - 01:42 AM, said:

View PostFantasymaestro, on 09 January 2014 - 07:39 PM, said:

Definitely looking to get him if he is available second round. He has a good floor and a definite backup in Mike James. Would love getting a Lacy/Martin rb field in first two rounds. I am planning on going old fashioned and stick with rb-rb or rb-te first two rounds.

I see a bounceback year for hium this year

I am hoping to draft 3 rb in the rounds if i can get guys like lacy/stacy/bell in the low first round and then get doug in the second and morris in the third if he drops there.   I feel like with his bad year, people will sleep on him
I think your rankings are a little off.  You think Stacy and Bell will be ranked above Doug Martin?  I doubt it.  I believe Morris will also be a late 2nd round pick.

#20 Superb3ast

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 10:39 PM

View PostMySoxrRed, on 09 January 2014 - 03:51 PM, said:

I am keeping an eye on him. In my three keeper league I own his rights so have to decide what to do with him. He looked good his rookie year. I dont see how he could be bad all of a sudden. Just a bad year for that team really.

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