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Giovani Bernard 2014 Season OutlookHue Jackson expected to be called up. Time for BJGE to pack his bags?


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#1 CL3VELANDBR0WNS

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 04:26 PM

Apparently Hue Jackson is some great news for Bernard owners.

The Bengals are expected to promote running backs coach Hue Jackson to offensive coordinator.

Bengals fans should be thrilled. Jackson has churned out productive offenses in just about every stop he's been, including in 2011 when he turned the Raiders into a top-9 offense as their head coach. He projects to highlight the running game more than predecessor Jay Gruden, giving Gio Bernard a major up arrow heading into 2014. In two years under Jackson, Darren McFadden rushed 336 times for 1,774 yards (5.27 YPC) and scored 15 touchdowns. In two seasons since then, McFadden has averaged 3.29 YPC and scored eight times.

14 tm non-ppr dynasty 30-man
QB- RG3, Carr
RB- Martin, Gio, Pierre, Bryce, Dunbar, Stewart, Grimes, Riddick.
WR- Josh Gordon, Sammy Watkins, Michael Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, DeAndre Hopkins, Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Kenny Britt, Mike Williams, Brian Quick, Marquess Wilson
TE- Gronk, Reed, Rudolph, Richard Rogers, Bostick, Brandon Williams, CJF, Demetrius Harris
LB-Mosley, Shazier
S- Cyprien
IR- Blackmon, Hunter, Alonso

#2 joshua18

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 06:02 PM

Doubtful.  Jackson was a big fan of Michael Bush in Oakland, who vultured TDs from McFadden.  Bennie isn't going anywhere.

#3 Fantasymaestro

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 07:43 PM

As long as Bennie is there, his upside is capped. And Gio didn't exactly impress during his playoff game. Will be a solid rb2 with a high ceiling but fairly low floor
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#4 Rob_P

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 10:37 PM

GIo was a top 15 RB in PPR leagues this year.  I see that as his floor with top 7 for a ceiling.  I know Green-Ellis will probably be there but I have to think the Bengals will do all that is in their power to make the offense more explosive which would seem to have to involve Gio.  I have him down as a definite top 10 PPR back next year.

#5 Sine_cera

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 11:07 PM

View PostCL3VELANDBR0WNS, on 09 January 2014 - 04:26 PM, said:

Apparently Hue Jackson is some great news for Bernard owners.

The Bengals are expected to promote running backs coach Hue Jackson to offensive coordinator.
Bengals fans should be thrilled. Jackson has churned out productive offenses in just about every stop he's been, including in 2011 when he turned the Raiders into a top-9 offense as their head coach. He projects to highlight the running game more than predecessor Jay Gruden, giving Gio Bernard a major up arrow heading into 2014. In two years under Jackson, Darren McFadden rushed 336 times for 1,774 yards (5.27 YPC) and scored 15 touchdowns. In two seasons since then, McFadden has averaged 3.29 YPC and scored eight times.

I like how Rotoworld only looks at the 336 carries that McFadden had but ignores to mention the 414 that Michael Bush had. Most of those 414 came because of McFadden missing time but Bush was always involved.

In 2010 it was almost evenly shared: McFadden with 223 carries and Bush with 158 carries.

BJGE isn't going anywhere. Hue likes to use big backs near the goal line.

Edited by Sine_cera, 09 January 2014 - 11:16 PM.

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#6 Gryfter

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 02:41 AM

so basically, Gio's value stays the same...
14 Team H2H:

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1B: Carlos Santana
2B: Jose Altuve
SS: Jose Reyes
3B: Evan Longoria
RF: Bryce Harper
CF: Yoenis Cespedes
LF: Corey Dickerson
Util: Dee Gordon

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DL: Michael Wacha, CJ Wilson

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#7 kobe24

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 07:27 AM

You guys are nuts if you think gios role is not going to increase in the slightest...

#8 petekrum

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 09:26 AM

View Postkobe24, on 10 January 2014 - 07:27 AM, said:

You guys are nuts if you think gios role is not going to increase in the slightest...

Exactly. No reason he can't become a Matt Forte type who gets a ton of yardage both running and receiving but didn't get a lot of tds.
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#9 Sine_cera

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 09:46 AM

View Postkobe24, on 10 January 2014 - 07:27 AM, said:

You guys are nuts if you think gios role is not going to increase in the slightest...

It will increase but I was responding to part of the title of this thread "Time for BJGE to pack his bags?".
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#10 mjb03003

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 09:49 AM

I think Gio is primed for a breakout year.

As a rookie he had over 1200 total yards and 8 TDs on *just* 170 carries and 56 receptions. In my PPR league (somewhat quirky scoring that I won't delve into) he finished RB13 this season, and that was while losing 756 yards (on 220 carries!) and 7 TDs to BJGE.

If the carry distribution flip flops (which it already started to from Week 15 on) and it's Bernard with the 220 carries and Lawfirm with 170, you can expect another couple hundred yards from Bernard at least, which would be enough to push him into the top 10 in my league.

If Hue Jackson's track record is any indication, Bernard could become the focal point of the offense. We might not be looking at a 50/50 or even 60/40 split, it could be 70/30 or better in favor of Gio. Lawfirm will have a role, and will probably still vulture TDs, but Gio is pretty much a lock to have a more integral role to the offense and more touches.

The bigger question for me is how much steam will the hype train pick up between now and next season. I own Gio in a keeper league at a good value regardless, but in re-drafts will we see him going in the early 2nd round? I'd feel much better about him as a late 2nd rounder. If he fell into the 3rd round it would be nothing but upside IMO.

#11 kobe24

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 09:53 AM

View Postpetekrum, on 10 January 2014 - 09:26 AM, said:

View Postkobe24, on 10 January 2014 - 07:27 AM, said:

You guys are nuts if you think gios role is not going to increase in the slightest...

Exactly. No reason he can't become a Matt Forte type who gets a ton of yardage both running and receiving but didn't get a lot of tds.

Yeah even if bjge is getting goal line looks he won't be getting 20 carries a game. People are also ignoring the fact that bush was a much better RB than bjge in his Oakland days. Bjge averaged 3.4 ypc behind a pretty good o line this season. At this point in his career he is a pretty awful player

#12 Sine_cera

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 09:59 AM

View Postkobe24, on 10 January 2014 - 09:53 AM, said:

View Postpetekrum, on 10 January 2014 - 09:26 AM, said:

View Postkobe24, on 10 January 2014 - 07:27 AM, said:

You guys are nuts if you think gios role is not going to increase in the slightest...

Exactly. No reason he can't become a Matt Forte type who gets a ton of yardage both running and receiving but didn't get a lot of tds.

Yeah even if bjge is getting goal line looks he won't be getting 20 carries a game. People are also ignoring the fact that bush was a much better RB than bjge in his Oakland days. Bjge averaged 3.4 ypc behind a pretty good o line this season. At this point in his career he is a pretty awful player

Michael Bush averaged 3.9 y/c in both seasons combined under Hue. There's really not that much difference between them.

Edited by Sine_cera, 10 January 2014 - 10:00 AM.

"There's nothing more interesting than your own rotisserie team and nothing less interesting than someone else's." - Daniel Okrent

"If you challenge the conventional wisdom, you will find ways to do things much better than they are currently done." - Bill James




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#13 mjb03003

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 10:14 AM

View PostSine_cera, on 10 January 2014 - 09:59 AM, said:

View Postkobe24, on 10 January 2014 - 09:53 AM, said:

View Postpetekrum, on 10 January 2014 - 09:26 AM, said:

View Postkobe24, on 10 January 2014 - 07:27 AM, said:

You guys are nuts if you think gios role is not going to increase in the slightest...

Exactly. No reason he can't become a Matt Forte type who gets a ton of yardage both running and receiving but didn't get a lot of tds.

Yeah even if bjge is getting goal line looks he won't be getting 20 carries a game. People are also ignoring the fact that bush was a much better RB than bjge in his Oakland days. Bjge averaged 3.4 ypc behind a pretty good o line this season. At this point in his career he is a pretty awful player

Michael Bush averaged 3.9 y/c in both seasons combined under Hue. There's really not that much difference between them.

In 2010 Michael Bush had 158 carries. Darren McFadden had 223.

In weeks 1-3 of that season, McFadden had 73 carries, while Bush had just 3.

In Weeks 5 and 6, McFadden did not play, and Bush had 46 combined carries in those 2 games.

In Week 7, McFadden returned and had 16 carries for 165 yards and 3 TDs. Perhaps in an effort to ease him back in, Bush also got 15 carries in that game.

There were two other games when McFadden was on the field that Bush received double-digit carries. Week 13 vs. San Diego (19 carries for McFadden, 23 for Bush), and week 15 vs. Denver (20 carries for McFadden, 12 for Bush).

In Week 17, McFadden again did not play, and Bush had 25 carries in that game.

71 of Bush's 158 carries (45%) in 2010 came when McFadden did not play.

When McFadden was active, Bush had games of 0, 0, 3, 7, 9, 5, 4, 1, 5, and 3 carries.

Facts people. Hue Jackson was enamored with McFadden that preseason, and fed him the ball relentlessly when he was healthy and on the field. Bush's carry totals are misleading, because he got nearly half of his carries in the three games that McFadden missed. There were also a couple games mixed in there where the Raiders ran the ball 40+ times, allowing Bush to rack up carries despite being the clear #2 back.

#14 ZayMonay

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 10:15 AM

Just going off what I saw on Hard Knocks last year Gio is Hue Jackson's guy. I'm expecting a breakout year to come with a full offseason

#15 scienergy

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 10:19 AM

And don't forget the other guy they drafted, Rex Burkhead.  Would love to see Oldfirm leave and give the young guns a shot.   No doubt Burkhead would fill that Bush role as the Thunder to Gio's lightning.

#16 cbe_88

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 10:20 AM

Love me some Gio, but if Law-firm indeed stays around, I'll be a little leary of drafting him early. Even if Law-firm is on the team next year, he could sniff the early second round next year which is too high for a guy in an RBBC with a guy who all he can do effectively is vulture TD's.

There's talk they might part ways with Law-firm, however, in which case I would be stoked.

#17 mjb03003

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 10:22 AM

And for the record, the same thing was happening in 2011 before McFadden suffered a foot sprain that ultimately ended his season:

Through 6 games, McFadden had 111 carries (18.5 per), while Bush had 43 (7.2 per). Bush's high while McFadden was healthy was 10 carries.

I'm not saying that Bernard will get 2 or 2.5 times as many carries as Bush next year, but those citing Hue Jackson's love for Michael Bush and trying to spin it that it was anywhere close to an even split are incorrect.

#18 ZayMonay

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 10:22 AM

View Postcbe_88, on 10 January 2014 - 10:20 AM, said:

Love me some Gio, but if Law-firm indeed stays around, I'll be a little leary of drafting him early. Even if Law-firm is on the team next year, he could sniff the early second round next year which is too high for a guy in an RBBC with a guy who all he can do effectively is vulture TD's.

There's talk they might part ways with Law-firm, however, in which case I would be stoked.

If he's a second round guy im out, but I highly doubt he'll go that high.

#19 Ryan81

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 10:23 AM

Where do yall think Gio will end up being taken?
"Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you." -Clay Othic

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QB: Philip Rivers
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WR2: Jordy Nelson
W/R/T: Alshon Jeffery
W/R/T: Cecil Shorts III
TE: Jason Witten
DST: Cincinnati Bengals/Arizona Cardinals
Bench: Travaris Cadet, Ahmad Bradshaw, Mike Tolbert, James Starks, Mohammed Sanu Cole Beasley

#20 mjb03003

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 10:27 AM

View PostZayMonay, on 10 January 2014 - 10:22 AM, said:

View Postcbe_88, on 10 January 2014 - 10:20 AM, said:

Love me some Gio, but if Law-firm indeed stays around, I'll be a little leary of drafting him early. Even if Law-firm is on the team next year, he could sniff the early second round next year which is too high for a guy in an RBBC with a guy who all he can do effectively is vulture TD's.

There's talk they might part ways with Law-firm, however, in which case I would be stoked.

If he's a second round guy im out, but I highly doubt he'll go that high.

I don't really see how he's not a 2nd rounder, at least in PPR leagues. In standard he's more of a third round guy, but with his upside I don't think he'd be a bad pick in the 2nd either.




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