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Arian Foster 2014 Season OutlookNew Offensive Scheme = Concerns.


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#1 pikerbkb

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 06:13 PM

No more 400 touch seasons, no more Shana-Kubi run crazy offense. Assuming he's healthy and with wholesale changes in offensive scheme what do you think? Is Foster going to bust in 2014? Does he have the game to succeed in a power blocking scheme?
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#2 joshua18

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 07:30 PM

Well, he was undrafted for a reason, but I think he'll do well.  He and Alfred Morris are in the same boat for me -- though I think Foster will have a better season overall.

#3 munde53

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 08:46 PM

 joshua18, on 10 January 2014 - 07:30 PM, said:

Well, he was undrafted for a reason, but I think he'll do well.  He and Alfred Morris are in the same boat for me -- though I think Foster will have a better season overall.
He was undrafted for character concerns, not a lack of talent.

I'll take a gamble on him if he falls to the 3rd, but not before then.

#4 fredth3cat

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 09:24 PM

I have to think the Texans add another competant RB in the offseason. Foster will be a 28-year-old back coming off major surgery next year. If he suffers from a nagging injury early on, this could quickly turn into a timeshare.

#5 TheJRod2006

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 01:55 PM

Texans will definitely add another RB with Tate expected to depart in FA. I doubt they saw enough from Dennis Johnson or anyone else to have confidence in them should Foster get hurt.

I'd expect Foster to enter the season as the lead back, barring a setback, with a drafted RB as the primary backup. Wouldn't be surprised if the Texans shifted to more of a RBBC than we're used to seeing from them now that it's a new regime.
Do you really care who is on my team? I have Mike Trout and Arian Foster in keeper leagues in their respective sports.

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#6 Rob_P

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 02:29 PM

Back injury, overworked, new coaching staff,  age....major reasons for concerns which will make him either a major bargin or a total bust.  I am intrigued if he is healthy but I highly doubt he falls far enough in drafts where I would feel comfortable taking him.

#7 pikerbkb

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 12:34 AM

I only own him in one of my dynasty leagues and I am glad that my exposure is limited. I won a Chp in 2012 and Mr. Foster had a lot to do with that, but unless we see O'Brien use a lot of zone blocking plays I think Foster's elite days are behind him. His career could be one of those meteoric ones where he came out of nowhere, burned hot and bright very briefly and then faded almost as quickly. Foster is a classic volume runner where he needs to get a high number of carries to be effective. If he ends up being part of a committee where he only gets only 15-18 touches a game, he is probably going to be a very mediocre runner IMO. Somebody mentioned that O'Brien's offense will probably be pass first. I have a feeling the new offense is going to be build around the QB and passing game, in line with current NFL trends. That means less emphasis on run blocking, where OCs like RBs who can make defenders miss in the hole, where they can create and make something happen on their own.That's not Foster's game. Anyway, just speculating here, but Foster's future is definitely in doubt and I think it's fair to say that his elite days are over.
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#8 SenatorSpaceman

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 04:37 AM

There are a number of concerns with Foster next season. Massive workloads, injury issues, new coaching staff. But I just have this feeling that he's going to fall far enough in drafts that I won't be able to resist selecting him.

I mean, I realize that some people thing Foster is just a product of the zone system but regardless he was incredibly productive when healthy in 2013. In the first six games of the season, before his injury, he averaged 14.2 standard points a game and 17.9 in full PPR formats.

#9 Gains

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 08:59 PM

would take a BIIIIIG discount for me to draft. I want to get that discount, but have a feeling it will not be big enough.

#10 cbe_88

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 02:57 AM

The dude was a top5 back two years ago, and was on pace for top ten numbers last year until he went down, even when Kubiak was giving Tate the better half of the workload to ease Foster in the first few games. He's still a really nice talent with incredible vision behind what's not a horrible o-line.

The new regime is a mild concern for sure, But keep in mind that O'Brien ran it about half the time at Penn State and even had more run than pass attempts in several games last year. It's not like O'brien and this new staff is going to doom his value or anything.

The major back injury, is scary. Like really scary, not discounting that, so I'm gonna need to hear some raving training camp reports that the back isn't bothering him, and some nice preseason runs, but I can easily see me considering him in the second round next year if this is the case, and a third round steal.

And 28??? That's not "aged" for an RB. Call me when he's 30. His mileage is pretty intense so I suppose one could make an argument that his 28 is more like 30 but this back issue is the first real injury that we've had to worry about for Arian... what else a mild hamstring injury missing the first two weeks of 2011?? That's it. and what probably played a part in the serious injury last yr was that he missed all of last years camp being out of football shape when he tried to start the season. His body wasn't near as prepared for playing football as it typically had been in his other years in the league.

Edited by cbe_88, 17 January 2014 - 03:03 AM.


#11 brad_leonard89

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 05:09 AM

 cbe_88, on 17 January 2014 - 02:57 AM, said:

The major back injury, is scary. Like really scary, not discounting that, so I'm gonna need to hear some raving training camp reports that the back isn't bothering him, and some nice preseason runs, but I can easily see me considering him in the second round next year if this is the case, and a third round steal.

I honestly hope they keep his surgery recovery relatively quiet so that he'll fall to round 3. I was considering on changing my drafting ways from RB/RB/WR to RB/WR/RB and Foster would be an absolute steal in round 3 if you ask me. I definitely agree it's scary coming off of a major surgery but we watched Adrian Peterson do what he did last year off of a major surgery (knee not back I know but still, they're the same age). Knowing what these guys are capable of as professional athletes when it comes to toughness, recovery, and the ability to bounch back makes me feel better about having him on my roster next season. Foster's work ethic and motivation were never in question either which motivates me even more to be in his corner.....still....I don't want him before round 3. Really this is something I'll be going back and forth about in my head until the minute I start drafting next season I'm sure.

#12 ipg46

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Posted 18 January 2014 - 08:07 AM

This guy will be drafted below his value in the majority of leagues next year. If the reports coming out of summer are things like "I feel good" and so on, I will have him on my list. At the end of the day, 99% of folks in 99% of leagues will draft at roughly the rankings put out by Yahoo and ESPN. The 1% (99% of whom come to these boards--haha), can count on the "experts" getting this one wrong and ranking him outside the Top 20-25 backs. (Note that guys like Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, Ridley, Blount, MJD, Sproles, Lamar Miller all were outside the Top 20 in standard leagues, and there is a good chance the experts rank some of those guys above Foster next year.) Getting this guy as your 3rd RB is quite possible, and could very well win you a championship next year.
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#13 joshua18

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Posted 18 January 2014 - 08:35 AM

 ipg46, on 18 January 2014 - 08:07 AM, said:

This guy will be drafted below his value in the majority of leagues next year. If the reports coming out of summer are things like "I feel good" and so on, I will have him on my list. At the end of the day, 99% of folks in 99% of leagues will draft at roughly the rankings put out by Yahoo and ESPN. The 1% (99% of whom come to these boards--haha), can count on the "experts" getting this one wrong and ranking him outside the Top 20-25 backs. (Note that guys like Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, Ridley, Blount, MJD, Sproles, Lamar Miller all were outside the Top 20 in standard leagues, and there is a good chance the experts rank some of those guys above Foster next year.) Getting this guy as your 3rd RB is quite possible, and could very well win you a championship next year.

Several variables:
1.  How good will he be in a non zone-blocking scheme?
2.  How will the surgery affect him?  (of note: this is a MUCH bigger back surgery than the one Joe Montana had -- Montana's was just a disc removal; this was a multilevel lumbar fusion, which even in 50 year old nonathletes takes 3-6 months before you can determine if the fusion was successful, and that's before considering the heavy lifting Foster will have to do to get in shape -- and that's before considering his readiness for contact)
3. Will he be in a timeshare?

For these reasons, its probably wise to be cautious.  I would rather have Fred Jackson or Steven Jackson before Foster.

#14 mrblonde1984

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Posted 18 January 2014 - 08:42 AM

Some info about the type of surgery he had.

Http://www.m.webmd.com/back-pain/discectomy-or-microdiscectomy-for-a-herniated-disc

#15 joshua18

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Posted 18 January 2014 - 08:51 AM

 mrblonde1984, on 18 January 2014 - 08:42 AM, said:


If he just had a microdiscectomy, he'll probably be a bargain in the 3rd round.  If he had a fusion, I wouldn't touch him before round 5 at the earliest.  Both procedures involve a microdiscectomy, but if fusion was required, it implies that his spine was biomechanically unstable as well.  This would be a good area for the NFL "insiders" to give us some info -- I had heard it was a fusion, but that may not be the case.

#16 ajmyk

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 08:23 AM

I see him sitting at a 2nd round ADP come August. (like MJD or Ridley in 2013)

IMO, that's a good value for him.

Edited by ajmyk, 22 January 2014 - 08:25 AM.


#17 Shyne1

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 08:49 AM

I would only draft him as a RB2, I wouldn't dare draft him as my RB1 and rely on Foster to carry my RB's

#18 Gains

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 07:12 PM

View Postajmyk, on 22 January 2014 - 08:23 AM, said:

I see him sitting at a 2nd round ADP come August. (like MJD or Ridley in 2013)

IMO, that's a good value for him.

2nd rounder for a broken coming off of surgery new offense foster.

no thanks jeff.

#19 Theoneupper

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 07:17 PM

View Postajmyk, on 22 January 2014 - 08:23 AM, said:

I see him sitting at a 2nd round ADP come August. (like MJD or Ridley in 2013)

IMO, that's a good value for him.
So he can be a bust just like MJD and Ridley. No thanks. :lol:

#20 Gains

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 07:28 PM

View PostTheoneupper, on 22 January 2014 - 07:17 PM, said:

View Postajmyk, on 22 January 2014 - 08:23 AM, said:

I see him sitting at a 2nd round ADP come August. (like MJD or Ridley in 2013)

IMO, that's a good value for him.
So he can be a bust just like MJD and Ridley. No thanks. :lol:

MJD didn't to THAT Bad. especially in the mess that was top ranked Rbs last year.




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