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Matt Moore 2014 Outlook


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#1 96mnc

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 04:08 PM

A world of talent...

Hasn't put it all together yet...

Thoughts for this season?

Edited by 96mnc, 11 January 2014 - 04:09 PM.


#2 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 08:57 PM

Until his command gets substantially better, he's not much different from Gio Gonzalez, only a little worse. I've always been a big fan of his mechanics and his easy arm action. He needs to pitch deeper into games. He has ace potential, but he's not there yet. Hopefully, he makes the leap this year or in 2015.

Edited by Posting In The Clutch, 11 January 2014 - 08:58 PM.

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#3 amcsoldier

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 01:54 AM

Bear with me here as I make a wild comp. I've owned and closely followed both guys for years, and I see some of this other player in Moore's development (i.e., great K potential but slowly improving control).

His first full year in the bigs: 8.36 k/9 (Moore: 8.88), 4.35 bb/9 (Moore: 4.11), 4.08 fip (Moore: 3.93)
His second year in the bigs: 9.74 k/9 (Moore: 8.56), 4.79 bb/9 (Moore: 4.55), 3.08 fip (Moore: 3.95)
His third full year in the bigs: 9.34 k/9, 3.57 bb/9, 3.12 fip.

The other player is Kershaw. I know, I know. Not saying Moore is the next Kershaw. Just suggesting that control is more slow to come around than strikeouts, and with the right mechanics and pedigree, it can start to arrive around year three and get sharp in year four and beyond.

Now, Moore didn't really improve his walk rate between the first and second half of last year, so there's not a definite observable trend in progress. Use that to temper the optimism. Still, I'm playing the long game with Moore. There's room to improve for a player like him.
16-Team 14-Keeper League

C: E. Gattis
1B: G. Jones
2B: D. Pedroia
SS: E. Aybar
3B: B. Lawrie
OF: G. Stanton
OF: A. Jackson
OF: J. Bruce
UTIL: J. Ellsbury
SP: C. Kershaw, J. Cueto, Z. Greinke, S. Kazmir, J. Verlander, A. Burnett, Z. A. Simon (RP)
Bench: M. Trumbo, M. Estrada, M. Moore, M. Latos
Prospects: C. Correa

#4 pan55

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 11:55 AM

View Postamcsoldier, on 12 January 2014 - 01:54 AM, said:

Bear with me here as I make a wild comp. I've owned and closely followed both guys for years, and I see some of this other player in Moore's development (i.e., great K potential but slowly improving control).

His first full year in the bigs: 8.36 k/9 (Moore: 8.88), 4.35 bb/9 (Moore: 4.11), 4.08 fip (Moore: 3.93)
His second year in the bigs: 9.74 k/9 (Moore: 8.56), 4.79 bb/9 (Moore: 4.55), 3.08 fip (Moore: 3.95)
His third full year in the bigs: 9.34 k/9, 3.57 bb/9, 3.12 fip.

The other player is Kershaw. I know, I know. Not saying Moore is the next Kershaw. Just suggesting that control is more slow to come around than strikeouts, and with the right mechanics and pedigree, it can start to arrive around year three and get sharp in year four and beyond.

Now, Moore didn't really improve his walk rate between the first and second half of last year, so there's not a definite observable trend in progress. Use that to temper the optimism. Still, I'm playing the long game with Moore. There's room to improve for a player like him.

Kershaw's first two years were age 20 and 21.
Moore's first two years were age 23 and 24.

That is a pretty significant difference. I believe the younger a player is the greater the potential for improvement.

#5 96mnc

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 02:48 PM

View Postpan55, on 12 January 2014 - 11:55 AM, said:

View Postamcsoldier, on 12 January 2014 - 01:54 AM, said:

Bear with me here as I make a wild comp. I've owned and closely followed both guys for years, and I see some of this other player in Moore's development (i.e., great K potential but slowly improving control).

His first full year in the bigs: 8.36 k/9 (Moore: 8.88), 4.35 bb/9 (Moore: 4.11), 4.08 fip (Moore: 3.93)
His second year in the bigs: 9.74 k/9 (Moore: 8.56), 4.79 bb/9 (Moore: 4.55), 3.08 fip (Moore: 3.95)
His third full year in the bigs: 9.34 k/9, 3.57 bb/9, 3.12 fip.

The other player is Kershaw. I know, I know. Not saying Moore is the next Kershaw. Just suggesting that control is more slow to come around than strikeouts, and with the right mechanics and pedigree, it can start to arrive around year three and get sharp in year four and beyond.

Now, Moore didn't really improve his walk rate between the first and second half of last year, so there's not a definite observable trend in progress. Use that to temper the optimism. Still, I'm playing the long game with Moore. There's room to improve for a player like him.

Kershaw's first two years were age 20 and 21.
Moore's first two years were age 23 and 24.

That is a pretty significant difference. I believe the younger a player is the greater the potential for improvement.

Very true but I don't think that applies to pitchers quite as much as hitters.

#6 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 05:04 PM

Pitchers that walk a ton of people and go fewer innings than average tend to be much more susceptible to injury. Moore has the talent an pedigree to improve that (and obviously youth is on his side) but I think he needs to make a significant leap this year (to 3.7bb/9 or under). Moore has great stuff and when healthy last year, outside of June, his ERA looked great but he found himself very lucky with BABIP. Guys with stuff like him will have lower babip's but .259 is incredibly low. Moore's career number is .280 there, even the aforementioned Clayton Kershaw is at .270 for his career, so we can safely expect more balls to find grass vs Moore this year.

I like Matt Moore's talent. I'm sure we all do. But that 17-4 record, 3.29 era, and 8.56 k/9 may bump his ADP to a spot I'm not comfortable. I think he'd be a great #3 and I wouldn't be shocked if we are discussing him being drafted as a top 10 next year, but I would not want him as my 1 or 2 this year. Just to throw out a name, I'd rather have a guy like James Shields than Moore because I know Shields will get his innings if he holds up. Even if Moore is tossing 30+ starts he's a poor bet for 200+ innings. With an elbow issue from last year and a low strike total, I'm not so sure he's getting to 30 starts. Also, with an uncertain bullpen situation, if the guy is throwing less innings then he will be putting most of his wins into the hands of a potentially weaker pen. I think he finds himself in the 15 win, 3.50 era, 1.25 whip, 170k range, with the obvious upside to crush all those numbers and win the CY Young. The downside is Tommy John.


PS- What is Moore's current ADP and where are the best places for baseball ADP? Mockdraftcentral seems way off since Pujols is still sitting there at #6..

#7 Slatykamora

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 09:22 PM

View Post96mnc, on 12 January 2014 - 02:48 PM, said:

View Postpan55, on 12 January 2014 - 11:55 AM, said:

View Postamcsoldier, on 12 January 2014 - 01:54 AM, said:

Bear with me here as I make a wild comp. I've owned and closely followed both guys for years, and I see some of this other player in Moore's development (i.e., great K potential but slowly improving control).

His first full year in the bigs: 8.36 k/9 (Moore: 8.88), 4.35 bb/9 (Moore: 4.11), 4.08 fip (Moore: 3.93)
His second year in the bigs: 9.74 k/9 (Moore: 8.56), 4.79 bb/9 (Moore: 4.55), 3.08 fip (Moore: 3.95)
His third full year in the bigs: 9.34 k/9, 3.57 bb/9, 3.12 fip.

The other player is Kershaw. I know, I know. Not saying Moore is the next Kershaw. Just suggesting that control is more slow to come around than strikeouts, and with the right mechanics and pedigree, it can start to arrive around year three and get sharp in year four and beyond.

Now, Moore didn't really improve his walk rate between the first and second half of last year, so there's not a definite observable trend in progress. Use that to temper the optimism. Still, I'm playing the long game with Moore. There's room to improve for a player like him.

Kershaw's first two years were age 20 and 21.
Moore's first two years were age 23 and 24.

That is a pretty significant difference. I believe the younger a player is the greater the potential for improvement.

Very true but I don't think that applies to pitchers quite as much as hitters.

It applies to the fact Kershaw was pretty much rushed forward to MLB level early. He started his first full pro year in A Ball, skipped AAA (Like a lot of superior talents) So he wasn't given nearly enough time to flesh out things. He was fairly raw at first. So his struggles with command is probably more a reflection on being very wet behind the ears.

Moore was given a lot more time in the minors to polish himself. Rays made sure he was ready as he could be.

#8 Sidearmer

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 10:52 PM

View PostRed Sox Nation, on 12 January 2014 - 05:04 PM, said:

PS- What is Moore's current ADP and where are the best places for baseball ADP? Mockdraftcentral seems way off since Pujols is still sitting there at #6..

MDC still has terrible rankings, so any computers that go into their mock drafts mess up all the ADP data. I've been going off the 2 mock drafts on these threads to try to find some sort of reliable ADP. Not a large sample size but it is a well controlled environment of drafting with a group of knowledgeable players. I doubt there will be any other accurate ADPs out there until February.
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#9 96mnc

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 11:43 PM

View PostSlatykamora, on 12 January 2014 - 09:22 PM, said:

View Post96mnc, on 12 January 2014 - 02:48 PM, said:

View Postpan55, on 12 January 2014 - 11:55 AM, said:

View Postamcsoldier, on 12 January 2014 - 01:54 AM, said:

Bear with me here as I make a wild comp. I've owned and closely followed both guys for years, and I see some of this other player in Moore's development (i.e., great K potential but slowly improving control).

His first full year in the bigs: 8.36 k/9 (Moore: 8.88), 4.35 bb/9 (Moore: 4.11), 4.08 fip (Moore: 3.93)
His second year in the bigs: 9.74 k/9 (Moore: 8.56), 4.79 bb/9 (Moore: 4.55), 3.08 fip (Moore: 3.95)
His third full year in the bigs: 9.34 k/9, 3.57 bb/9, 3.12 fip.

The other player is Kershaw. I know, I know. Not saying Moore is the next Kershaw. Just suggesting that control is more slow to come around than strikeouts, and with the right mechanics and pedigree, it can start to arrive around year three and get sharp in year four and beyond.

Now, Moore didn't really improve his walk rate between the first and second half of last year, so there's not a definite observable trend in progress. Use that to temper the optimism. Still, I'm playing the long game with Moore. There's room to improve for a player like him.

Kershaw's first two years were age 20 and 21.
Moore's first two years were age 23 and 24.

That is a pretty significant difference. I believe the younger a player is the greater the potential for improvement.

Very true but I don't think that applies to pitchers quite as much as hitters.

It applies to the fact Kershaw was pretty much rushed forward to MLB level early. He started his first full pro year in A Ball, skipped AAA (Like a lot of superior talents) So he wasn't given nearly enough time to flesh out things. He was fairly raw at first. So his struggles with command is probably more a reflection on being very wet behind the ears.

Moore was given a lot more time in the minors to polish himself. Rays made sure he was ready as he could be.

Great point on Kershaw.


#10 uspsjeter2

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 10:36 AM

Has obvious talent and obvious warts. Did cut the walks by a full 1 per inning in the 2nd half, but still allowed 4 per 9 IP. K/9 holding steady at just below 1 per inning. Had a very high 84% strand rate in the 2nd half which helps explain his 2.40 actual ERA compared to a 5.07 xERA. He's certainly in one of the best organizations to help him right the command ship, and with 2 full big league seasons under his belt could make a real leap in terms of his peripherals this year. But to expect that leap? That's the real question. He could make very solid strides in his control and still "only" win 12 games because of a little less good luck. Looks to me like one of those guys who could win you a title or absolutely torpedo your whole staff....

Edited by uspsjeter2, 14 January 2014 - 10:36 AM.

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#11 Slatykamora

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 10:59 AM

His F-Strike actually got worse in the 2nd half (48.7). His numbers are pointing downward.

Which is leading to more hitting counts/hitters being more patient/less likely to swing at cheese as time goes on. Which is killing his K rate and a SwStr slowly.

So for me? F-Strike is the stat will be most telling this year. He needs to get ahead in the count so his Nasty stuff can play up.

#12 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 12:31 PM

View PostSlatykamora, on 14 January 2014 - 10:59 AM, said:

His F-Strike actually got worse in the 2nd half (48.7). His numbers are pointing downward.

Which is leading to more hitting counts/hitters being more patient/less likely to swing at cheese as time goes on. Which is killing his K rate and a SwStr slowly.

So for me? F-Strike is the stat will be most telling this year. He needs to get ahead in the count so his Nasty stuff can play up.

I remember reading somewhere (I think fangraphs) over a year ago that pitchers that have strike rates below 50% tend to have a significantly higher risk of injury than the average pitcher (and we know have injury prone pitchers are regardless). Taking an educated guess here, but it probably is because a pitcher is putting more stress on his arm because they are working out of more jams and having to pitch better (with less ease) since they are often behind in the count. He'll need to quickly bring his strike rate out to have a true break out and avoid arm problems.

#13 uspsjeter2

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 04:25 PM

View PostRed Sox Nation, on 14 January 2014 - 12:31 PM, said:

View PostSlatykamora, on 14 January 2014 - 10:59 AM, said:

His F-Strike actually got worse in the 2nd half (48.7). His numbers are pointing downward.

Which is leading to more hitting counts/hitters being more patient/less likely to swing at cheese as time goes on. Which is killing his K rate and a SwStr slowly.

So for me? F-Strike is the stat will be most telling this year. He needs to get ahead in the count so his Nasty stuff can play up.

I remember reading somewhere (I think fangraphs) over a year ago that pitchers that have strike rates below 50% tend to have a significantly higher risk of injury than the average pitcher (and we know have injury prone pitchers are regardless). Taking an educated guess here, but it probably is because a pitcher is putting more stress on his arm because they are working out of more jams and having to pitch better (with less ease)  since they are often behind in the count. He'll need to quickly bring his strike rate out to have a true break out and avoid arm problems.
Interestingly, Moore sat out most of August with a sore elbow....
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#14 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 04:51 PM

View Postuspsjeter2, on 14 January 2014 - 04:25 PM, said:

View PostRed Sox Nation, on 14 January 2014 - 12:31 PM, said:

View PostSlatykamora, on 14 January 2014 - 10:59 AM, said:

His F-Strike actually got worse in the 2nd half (48.7). His numbers are pointing downward.

Which is leading to more hitting counts/hitters being more patient/less likely to swing at cheese as time goes on. Which is killing his K rate and a SwStr slowly.

So for me? F-Strike is the stat will be most telling this year. He needs to get ahead in the count so his Nasty stuff can play up.

I remember reading somewhere (I think fangraphs) over a year ago that pitchers that have strike rates below 50% tend to have a significantly higher risk of injury than the average pitcher (and we know have injury prone pitchers are regardless). Taking an educated guess here, but it probably is because a pitcher is putting more stress on his arm because they are working out of more jams and having to pitch better (with less ease) since they are often behind in the count. He'll need to quickly bring his strike rate out to have a true break out and avoid arm problems.
Interestingly, Moore sat out most of August with a sore elbow....

Yup, not a good sign. I wouldn't call it doomsday, but I've been scared to deal for him in a keeper because I have a strong feeling he's going to be missing a big chunk of time in the near future. You can't ever bank on injuries, but the low strike total and a sore elbow, no matter how minor or precautionary it may have been, are red flags.

#15 MireLurker

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 04:14 PM

10K:11BB in 10 spring innings.... not exactly assuaging the walk rate concerns. I'll let someone else reach for the K potential and last year's wins.
10-team 5x5 roto redraft league | big roster | no IP limit

C[2] -- Perez, Mesoraco
1B ---- Moss, Abreu
2B ---- Pedroia
SS ---- Escobar, Zobrist
3B ---- Frazier, A-Ram
MI ----- Villar
CI -----
OF[5] - Trout, Stanton, Werth, Morse, Melky, Heyward, Revere
P[9] ---  Cueto, Wacha, Verlander, Minor, Estrada, Ross, Beckett, Keuchel, Roark, Skaggs
---------- A. Wood
RIP ---- Jose Fernandez

The other teams is just one long disabled list.

#16 PepperPot

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 04:17 PM

View PostMireLurker, on 19 March 2014 - 04:14 PM, said:

10K:11BB in 10 spring innings.... not exactly assuaging the walk rate concerns. I'll let someone else reach for the K potential and last year's wins.

I would as well, if I didn't already have him as a keeper in my AL-Only.  Does anyone know what his velocity has been this spring?
10 Team NL-Only Keeper List 5x5 260 Draft Cap
C: Rosario ($9)
1B: Alonso ($4)
2B: Gyorko ($14)
SS: Hanley ($22)
3B: Rendon ($4)
OF: Kemp ($11) Puig ($1) Yelich ($4)
P: Bailey ($3) Beachy ($1) Cashner ($7) Cingrani ($4) Cueto ($11) Wheeler ($4)
Needs: C,1B, MI, OF, Util, P
10 Team AL-Only Keeper List 5x5 $260 Draft Cap
1B: Hosmer ($15)
2B: Dozier ($2)
3B: Machado ($10)
CI: Lawrie ($10)
OF: Trout ($20) Myers ($5)
P: Moore ($5) Porcello ($1) Hunter ($3) Lackey ($5) Santana ($1) Walker ($5) Kazmir ($5)
Needs: C, SS, MI, OF, Util, P

#17 The Professor

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 04:24 PM

View PostPepperPot, on 19 March 2014 - 04:17 PM, said:

View PostMireLurker, on 19 March 2014 - 04:14 PM, said:

10K:11BB in 10 spring innings.... not exactly assuaging the walk rate concerns. I'll let someone else reach for the K potential and last year's wins.

I would as well, if I didn't already have him as a keeper in my AL-Only.  Does anyone know what his velocity has been this spring?

Moore was hitting 96 mph in his most recent start.

#18 Smallball

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 04:32 PM

View PostThe Professor, on 19 March 2014 - 04:24 PM, said:

View PostPepperPot, on 19 March 2014 - 04:17 PM, said:

View PostMireLurker, on 19 March 2014 - 04:14 PM, said:

10K:11BB in 10 spring innings.... not exactly assuaging the walk rate concerns. I'll let someone else reach for the K potential and last year's wins.

I would as well, if I didn't already have him as a keeper in my AL-Only.  Does anyone know what his velocity has been this spring?

Moore was hitting 96 mph in his most recent start.

My league still counts pitches no where near the strike zone balls, regardless of how fast they cross the plate.

He's an avoid for me, can't find the strike zone this one.

Edited by Smallball, 19 March 2014 - 04:33 PM.


#19 PepperPot

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 04:43 PM

View PostSmallball, on 19 March 2014 - 04:32 PM, said:

View PostThe Professor, on 19 March 2014 - 04:24 PM, said:

View PostPepperPot, on 19 March 2014 - 04:17 PM, said:

View PostMireLurker, on 19 March 2014 - 04:14 PM, said:

10K:11BB in 10 spring innings.... not exactly assuaging the walk rate concerns. I'll let someone else reach for the K potential and last year's wins.

I would as well, if I didn't already have him as a keeper in my AL-Only.  Does anyone know what his velocity has been this spring?

Moore was hitting 96 mph in his most recent start.

My league still counts pitches no where near the strike zone balls, regardless of how fast they cross the plate.

He's an avoid for me, can't find the strike zone this one.

That is a concern, definitely.  But the velocity dropped last year was also a concern, especially when he sat out August with a sore elbow, so I was just cuious if the velocity returned this Spring.  I haven't been following him too closely, and I would avoid him if I could.
10 Team NL-Only Keeper List 5x5 260 Draft Cap
C: Rosario ($9)
1B: Alonso ($4)
2B: Gyorko ($14)
SS: Hanley ($22)
3B: Rendon ($4)
OF: Kemp ($11) Puig ($1) Yelich ($4)
P: Bailey ($3) Beachy ($1) Cashner ($7) Cingrani ($4) Cueto ($11) Wheeler ($4)
Needs: C,1B, MI, OF, Util, P
10 Team AL-Only Keeper List 5x5 $260 Draft Cap
1B: Hosmer ($15)
2B: Dozier ($2)
3B: Machado ($10)
CI: Lawrie ($10)
OF: Trout ($20) Myers ($5)
P: Moore ($5) Porcello ($1) Hunter ($3) Lackey ($5) Santana ($1) Walker ($5) Kazmir ($5)
Needs: C, SS, MI, OF, Util, P

#20 An Old Hippie

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Posted 23 March 2014 - 02:02 PM

Matt Moore left the game after taking a line drive off his face. Think it may have hit the glove first though. Was just an update on the MLB network (as I get to watch the Yankees again) so I don't know all the details.


Was it he or Archer that got hit last year?




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