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Keenan Allen 2014 Season OutlookTop 10 WR next season?


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#1 munde53

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 11:16 AM

Allen was one of the waiver wire darlings of the 2013 season, as well as being a steal from the 2013 NFL draft. A projected 1st round pick slipped into the 3rd with concerns about injuries and speed.

The rookie started the season as the #4 WR on the depth chart it took an injury to Malcom Floyd for Allen's playing time to increase. He stole the lead job and never looked back.

In those 13 games Allen posted a 68/1,016/8 line. If you stretch that out to a full 16 games  84/1,251/10 line which translates to top 10 production.

Ken Whisenhunt has departed which could hurt Allen's status. Whisenhunt has a history of WRs thriving within his system. Larry Fitzgerald has seen a steep decline in production since Whisenhunt left Arizona. Could the same thing happen to Allen?

Can he continue his run and secure "elite" status?

#2 nb009

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 11:35 AM

I was thinking about this while watching the game on Sunday. I know it's not apples to apples, but the whole Mike Williams of 2011 scenario scares me a little bit.

While I think Keenan's situation is better (QB, 1st round talent that fell due to injury), I also think the situation will already be factored into his price - meaning, he is likely projected to go for more than Mike Williams did in 2011.

Aside from Wiz leaving, there's also the risk of the water running dry with Rivers and him going back to being inconsistent. Not to mention, exponentially better receiving talent (Gates, Floyd, Green, V. Brown, Woodhead, Royal, Alexander*) means spreading the ball around more.

I will probably still look to buy, but not sure how much I would be willing to spend given the risk.

#3 munde53

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 11:39 AM

View Postnb009, on 14 January 2014 - 11:35 AM, said:

Aside from Wiz leaving, there's also the risk of the water running dry with Rivers and him going back to being inconsistent. Not to mention, exponentially better receiving talent (Gates, Floyd, Green, V. Brown, Woodhead, Royal, Alexander*) means spreading the ball around more.
With the exception of Floyd and Alexander, Allen was competing with all of them this season and still produced exceptionally.

Alexander is a FA and more than likely will not be retained. Floyd may very well be done with football or at least SD.

I don't see competition being an issue for Allen next season.

#4 nb009

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 11:47 AM

Good point on Floyd. I did not think about that.

For some reason, people are making it seem like Alexander is almost a certainty to return. That's why I included an asterisk by his name.

#5 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 11:49 AM

View Postmunde53, on 14 January 2014 - 11:39 AM, said:

View Postnb009, on 14 January 2014 - 11:35 AM, said:

Aside from Wiz leaving, there's also the risk of the water running dry with Rivers and him going back to being inconsistent. Not to mention, exponentially better receiving talent (Gates, Floyd, Green, V. Brown, Woodhead, Royal, Alexander*) means spreading the ball around more.
With the exception of Floyd and Alexander, Allen was competing with all of them this season and still produced exceptionally.

Alexander is a FA and more than likely will not be retained. Floyd may very well be done with football or at least SD.

I don't see competition being an issue for Allen next season.

Agreed - if I'm going to be worried about anything when it comes to KAllen, it's going to be just an overall sophomore slump (for whatever reason).  It also obviously matters what his price is at the draft table this August.  The one thing I'm not going to worry about is Allen losing significant looks and receptions to an aging Gates & Floyd, injured DX (who is also a FA and probably won't be back) or average talents like VBrown and Royal.  

I wouldn't worry too much about the loss of Whis - Mike McCoy is an offensive minded HC and knows how to run a passing offense.  Maybe Norv Turner back to SD as OC?  Ryan Matthews would be thrilled....

#6 youngrice

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 01:14 PM

Don't think I would take him top 10 but if everything stays the same I definetly think he falls in the 11 to 20 range.  I just can't trust a guy that has only played one year and had injury issues in college as my number 1 wr.

#7 Iron-cock

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 02:33 PM

View Postnb009, on 14 January 2014 - 11:35 AM, said:

I was thinking about this while watching the game on Sunday. I know it's not apples to apples, but the whole Mike Williams of 2011 scenario scares me a little bit.

While I think Keenan's situation is better (QB, 1st round talent that fell due to injury), I also think the situation will already be factored into his price - meaning, he is likely projected to go for more than Mike Williams did in 2011.

Aside from Wiz leaving, there's also the risk of the water running dry with Rivers and him going back to being inconsistent. Not to mention, exponentially better receiving talent (Gates, Floyd, Green, V. Brown, Woodhead, Royal, Alexander*) means spreading the ball around more.

I will probably still look to buy, but not sure how much I would be willing to spend given the risk.

Yeah, I rode Keenan Allen (and Gordon) to championships in a few leagues, but I doubt I'll buy as high as some people are projecting Allen next season.  I will be keeping him in my keeper league (keep 4-6) if that helps anyone with judging "value".

#8 munde53

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 05:25 PM

View Postyoungrice, on 14 January 2014 - 01:14 PM, said:

Don't think I would take him top 10 but if everything stays the same I definetly think he falls in the 11 to 20 range.  I just can't trust a guy that has only played one year and had injury issues in college as my number 1 wr.
I don't think anyone is arguing he'll be in the taken within the top 10 of WRs, but he very well could finish there.

#9 jimithing11

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 10:35 PM

He'll be a very solid WR2 most likely, but that's it.

Great receiver, but his production spiked when Alexander and Floyd went down. I imagine those guys will get their fair share of targets. Allen will still get his, but I don't see him as a 100/1,400/10 guy
10-team PPR Keeper League

QB -- Romo, RGIII
RB -- MJD, Brown, DMC, Miller, Vereen
WR -- Megatron, Dez, J. Gordon, Harvin
TE -- Garrett Graham
K -- Blair Walsh
DST -- Panthers

#10 Ryan81

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 10:51 PM

 jimithing11, on 14 January 2014 - 10:35 PM, said:

He'll be a very solid WR2 most likely, but that's it.

Great receiver, but his production spiked when Alexander and Floyd went down. I imagine those guys will get their fair share of targets. Allen will still get his, but I don't see him as a 100/1,400/10 guy
DX and Floyd may not even be with the team next year. Both are coming off very serious injuries and even then, Floyd isn't going to threaten Keenan Allen. Maybe Alexander. And that's a very strong maybe.
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#11 ckern92

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 11:28 PM

Hey guys! New to these forums. Just wanted to chime that the guy has a serious set of skills. I think he could very well overcome the sophomore slump. Also, to be honest, I don't think Floyd and Alexander are relevant enough names anymore to warrant the team keeping them in the spotlight. I don't think they'll have any trouble kicking them to the curb. Not only that, but Rivers has had the better part of the season to gain chemistry with Allen alone. I can definitely see him hitting the 1400/10 mark. Still wouldn't draft him top 10 though.
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#12 Gryfter

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 01:30 AM

he'd be a great WR2...
14 Team .5 PPR FLEX $$$ League (1st round exit)
QB: Romo
RBs: Bush, Stacy
WRs: Gordon, K.Allen
TE: Z.Miller
FLEX: Mathews
Kicker: Vinatieri
Defense: Carolina, Detroit
Bench: Gio, Percy, Cooper, Crabtree, Gronkowski(IR)

14 Team .5 PPR FLEX $$$ League (2013 Champion)
QB: Luck
RBs: Stacy, Gore
WRs: Dez, Garcon, C.Patterson
TE: Olsen
FLEX: J.Grimes
Kicker: Prater
Defense: Denver
Bench: Campbell, Ridley, A.Brown, B.Tate, D.Johnson

#13 munde53

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 09:02 AM



The Union-Tribune San Diego reports Chargers WR Malcom Floyd's neck injury could be career-ending.

Floyd was placed on injured reserve in Week 2 and acknowledged that he still deals with neck pain caused by the open-field hit. The injury is considered one that players can come back from, but Floyd has yet to be cleared to resume football activities and will visit with a doctor next month to determine his future. "I definitely want to play again," Floyd said. "If my body allows me to play, I'm going to do it."


#14 Iron-cock

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 10:10 AM

I'm just going to throw a few parts from the story out there that weren't in the rotoworld writeup.  Football aside, hopefully Floyd fully recovers:

http://www.utsandieg...-wide-receiver/

Malcom Floyd, after four months, still wears a neck brace to bed every night. He still deals with pain from an open-field hit that ended his season. He still waits to know if he can return to the game.
.....
"As soon I got hit, my limbs went limp," Floyd said then. "It seems like those prayers were answered because I could be in a wheelchair right now. I'm up and walking and ready to get better every day."

He and his wife had their third child, a daughter, on Nov. 14. All three are ages 4 and under.

More time at home has been the one positive to an injury for which Floyd said there currently is no timetable.

#15 munde53

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 10:26 AM

View PostIron-cock, on 17 January 2014 - 10:10 AM, said:

I'm just going to throw a few parts from the story out there that weren't in the rotoworld writeup.  Football aside, hopefully Floyd fully recovers:

http://www.utsandieg...-wide-receiver/

Malcom Floyd, after four months, still wears a neck brace to bed every night. He still deals with pain from an open-field hit that ended his season. He still waits to know if he can return to the game.
.....
"As soon I got hit, my limbs went limp," Floyd said then. "It seems like those prayers were answered because I could be in a wheelchair right now. I'm up and walking and ready to get better every day."

He and his wife had their third child, a daughter, on Nov. 14. All three are ages 4 and under.

More time at home has been the one positive to an injury for which Floyd said there currently is no timetable.
For his sake I really hope he doesn't return.

#16 RotoRaysfan

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Posted 18 January 2014 - 01:35 PM

I think we pretty much agree on 3 points:

1.  It's hard to justify drafting him in the top 10.  It's more of an indication of how deep WR is nowadays, it's really nothing against him.
2.  There's always some uncertainty when you have an OC who maximizes the passing game like Whiz did in 2013 that leaves, on what happens in 2014.  That's fair.
3.  BUT, the whole talk about DX (who I loved having in 2012 FTR, and still own in dynasty - although likely not for long) & Floyd threatening his production is totally off-base.   DX is coming off an ACL tear to his "good" right knee (he had FIVE surgeries on the left knee IIRC), and there is no guarantee he will have the same skills after this - and there's no guaranteed $ lost or committed - he's not under contract for 2014.   Same situation for Floyd with no guaranteed $ left on his contract, and who is really not looking good given where he's at recovery-wise, as covered above.  The Bolts have a ton of needs for their O-line, D-line and secondary - anyone who carries even a little bit of overpricing and no cap hit is likely gone.   Maybe DX signs for the league minimum, but otherwise it's easy to see them parting ways, given he can't stay on the field consistently.

Bottom line - it's doubtful Allen will go in the top 10 WR taken in most drafts.  And that's appropriate.  He could easily crack the top 10 result-wise when it's all said & done, but it's all about maximizing return on investment.   If he's there in the 12-18 range most are talking about, I'm all over that.   If he goes way early, I won't shed a tear - I'll thank him for his great 2013 season from the WW.   As a redraft & dynasty owner, though, it's important to understand that ultimately, I think his skill set is always going to put him in the discussion to be close to the top 10, and barring injury, his floor looks awfully safe.  

WR2 with WR1-ceiling production seems to be an entirely fair assessment for 2014.
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#17 Gryfter

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 05:43 AM

with DX's news, Keenan gets a bump, both in topic and his 2014 outlook...
14 Team .5 PPR FLEX $$$ League (1st round exit)
QB: Romo
RBs: Bush, Stacy
WRs: Gordon, K.Allen
TE: Z.Miller
FLEX: Mathews
Kicker: Vinatieri
Defense: Carolina, Detroit
Bench: Gio, Percy, Cooper, Crabtree, Gronkowski(IR)

14 Team .5 PPR FLEX $$$ League (2013 Champion)
QB: Luck
RBs: Stacy, Gore
WRs: Dez, Garcon, C.Patterson
TE: Olsen
FLEX: J.Grimes
Kicker: Prater
Defense: Denver
Bench: Campbell, Ridley, A.Brown, B.Tate, D.Johnson

#18 GreatScott!

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 06:40 AM

I wouldn't want him as my #1 WR, but he's a high end #2 WR with potential to put up WR 1 points with the right match up.  I think people will over pay for him though.
10 Team PPR 1 Flex
QB  Brees
RB - R.Bush,
RB - G. Bernard
RB - Z.Stacy
RB - MJD
RB - J. Bell
RB - S.Vereen
RB - D.Sproles
RB - J.Todman
WR - D.Jackson
WR - K. Allen
WR - M.Crabtree
WR - S.Johnson
TE - J.Cameron
TE - J.Thomas
D/ST Seattle
K - Whomever

#19 DocJ

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 04:31 PM

I think the key is that he will potentially be a target hog next season. Even if Rivers declines again he should be able to shot-put it up to Allen a good 9-10x / game, I like those odds with his skill set.
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#20 MugsyBogues

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 06:00 PM

Wasn't he better than his NFL Draft spot? Was it an injury that hurt his stock or the combine maybe? I remember reading he had first round talent.




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