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Fred Jackson 2014 Season Outlook


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#1 joshua18

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Posted 16 January 2014 - 06:42 PM

Where does he go in the draft? What do you expect from him next year? Please discuss.

#2 Gains

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Posted 16 January 2014 - 10:47 PM

seems like every year people are waiting for him to be too old and he never does. But then again that is because I didn't draft him, once I do am sure the internet explodes with "OMG you drafted a 33 year old RB"
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#3 Ryan81

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Posted 16 January 2014 - 10:57 PM

I have now added SJax to the list with Gore and FJax of RBs I won't draft due to age. I'd rather be a year or two early than too late when it comes to these guys.
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RotoWorld Mock Real League - 14 team, .5 PPR, 6 point passing TDs(4-2, 1st place)
QB: Philip Rivers
RB1: Ahmad Bradshaw
RB2: Reggie Bush
WR1: Dez Bryant
WR2: Jordy Nelson
W/R/T: Alshon Jeffery
W/R/T: Mohammed Sanu
TE: Jason Witten
DST: Streaming
Bench: Jeremy Hill, Pierre Thomas, Antone Smith, Travaris Cadet, James Starks, Eric Ebron


#4 joshua18

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 10:46 AM

I have now added SJax to the list with Gore and FJax of RBs I won't draft due to age. I'd rather be a year or two early than too late when it comes to these guys.


If you had to give up a 1st to 3rd rd pick, I'd agree. F-Jax can likely be had from the 6th to 8th rds. That's a bargain.

#5 Dislimb

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 09:43 PM

Currently going in the 9th round of 12 team standard leagues as the 40th RB off the board.

He had 1,277 scrimmage yards, 10 total TDs and 47 receptions (so he's also good in PPR) in 2013. Absolute steal.
10 team, round-based keeper league (up to three players, but no more than one per position) with standard scoring (non-PPR) and 4 point passing TDs:

QB: Aaron Rodgers (k-2)
RB1: Jamaal Charles (k-1)
RB2: Justin Forsett (n/a)
WR1: Julio Jones (k-3)
WR2: Emmanuel Sanders (6)
RB/WR: Fred Jackson (9)
TE: Dwayne Allen (n/a)
D/ST: Buffalo Bills (n/a)
K: Brandon McManus (n/a)

Bench
QB: Matt Ryan (10)
RB: Trent Richardson (8), Knile Davis (11), Devonta Freeman (12)
WR: Cordarrelle Patterson (4), DeAndre Hopkins (13)
D/ST: Cincinnati Bengals (14)

#6 metalmat

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 09:53 PM

A great value for where he is being drafted. The addition of Mike Williams (if he can stay outta trouble) and Sammy Watkins helps open the running game up for the Bills. Their secondary is mediocre which will lead to more points.

12 Team PPR
QB: Joe Flacco, Drew Brees
RB: Arian Foster, Giovanni Bernard, Frank Gore
WR/TE: Andre Johnson, Percy Harvin, Wes Welker, Kendall Wright, Delanie Walker
DST: Tennessee Titans
10 Team Standard
QB: Russell Wilson
RB: Fred Jackson, Ben Tate, Jamaal Charles, Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman, Ryan Mathews
WR: Dez Bryant, Kelvin Benjamin, Michael Floyd, Eric Decker, Roddy White

TE: Jordan Reed, Zach Ertz
DST: JJ Watt

12 Team Standard

QB: Jay CutlerKirk Cousins

RB: Jamaal Charles, Andre Williams, Branden Oliver, Zac Stacy, Joique Bell, Isaiah Crowell

WR: Jordy Nelson, Steve Smith Sr., Wes Welker, Rueben Randle

TE: Greg Olsen

DST: New England Patriots 


#7 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 20 August 2014 - 07:05 PM

Could a rb of his age fall off the cliff immediately? 100%. The good news is that he is currently going at pick 93, as the #36 rb. That is ROBBERY. His ypc btw went up in the 2nd half. CJ Spiller definitely got healthier and more involved towards the 2nd half of the season, but there were still more than enough touches available for Fred Jackson to make an impact. I don't see any reason to think Fred Jackson is looking at less than 180-200 carries, 40 catches, and most of the goal line work. This looks a lot like what Joique Bell could do, but in a worse offense. Joique himself is underrated imo but at least he's going at rb25, slightly out of rb2 game. FJax is getting drafted like he's nearly an rb4! He will be a major target of mine that I will have no problem picking 10 spots before his adp to ensure I get this steal.
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#8 scheibler

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Posted 20 August 2014 - 07:59 PM

Always underrated and my favorite fantasy player. Have had him 4 years now...he gets no love, but puts up the numbers...kinda like colston

#9 FFCollusion

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Posted 20 August 2014 - 08:56 PM

Pop Quiz!

Over the past 3 years who has missed more games?
DeMarco Murray
Steven Jackson
Ryan Mathews
Reggie Bush
Arian Foster
Fred Jackson
Maurice Jones-Drew

#Jussayin
I do it for the likes...

#10 Anthony1

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Posted 20 August 2014 - 09:03 PM

Right now, I honestly would rather have Fred Jackson than C.J. Spiller. I have no faith whatsoever in the Bills coaching staff to properly utilize Spiller.

Of course, having said all of this, I might completely change my mind after the 3rd preseason game. But if Spiller continues to be an afterthought, I honestly don't know why people would be taking him ahead of Fred Jackson, unless they plan on taking Jackson a couple of rounds later, but the thing is, imagine taking Spiller, and somebody snagging Jackson right in front of you, and what if the Buffalo coaching staff continues with Fred getting 65 percent of the plays at tailback ?

I'd almost rather just avoid Spiller altogether, and get Freddy late. Fred has discovered the fountain of youth, so we just have to deal with it, lol.

Local League--------------------------Old School League
QB - Aaron Rodgers -----------------QB - Andrew Luck
RB - Ben Tate -------------------------RB - Arian Foster
RB - Ahmad Bradshaw---------------RB - Ahmad Bradshaw
WR - Jordy Nelson -------------------WR - Jordy Nelson
WR - Michael Crabtree --------------WR - Demaryius Thomas
WR - Kelvin Benjamin ---------------WR - Kelvin Benjamin
TE- Travis Kelce -----------------------TE - Jordan Cameron
K - Dan Bailey ---------------------------K - Dan Carpenter
DEF - Baltimore Ravens-------------DEF - Cleveland Browns

_______________________________________

QB - Russell Wilson ---------------- QB - Cam Newton
RB - Joique Bell----------------------RB - Chris Ivory
RB - Bishop Sankey-----------------RB - Reggie Bush
RB - Ryan Matthews---------------- RB - Jerick McKinnon

RB - Knile Davis----- ----------------RB - James White

WR - Odell Beckham Jr.-----------WR - Odell Beckham Jr.
WR - Cordarrelle Patterson ------ TE - Jordan Reed

------------------------------------------- DEF - Denver Broncos

 


#11 The Dirtdog

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Posted 20 August 2014 - 09:08 PM

I love this debate, its been ongoing for years. I will draft Jackson every single year until the AARP comes knocking at his door.
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#12 mrblonde1984

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Posted 20 August 2014 - 11:10 PM

Doesn't look like his usage (3rd down, goal line) is changing any, so I'm biting at his current ADP. He's the Brett Favre of running backs.

2014 Live Draft Hometown League • 12 teams • PPR • 4-point TD pass • Bonuses • Return Yards

Week 8 Lineup (5-2)

QB: Aaron Rodgers (via trade)
RB: Andre Ellington (via trade)
RB: Ben Tate (6.4)
WR: Dez Bryant (1.9)
WR: Antonio Brown (2.4)
TE: Jordan Reed (waiver claim)
FLEX: A.J. Green (via trade)

FLEX: Darren McFadden (waiver claim)
D/ST: Kansas City (waiver claim)
K:  Adam Vinatieri (waiver claim)
Bench: Isaiah Crowell (via trade), Terrance West (via trade), Pierre Thomas (via trade), Delanie Walker (waiver claim), Denver D/ST (waiver claim), 1 bench spot pending


#13 Fantasymaestro

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Posted 20 August 2014 - 11:13 PM

I am looking to target him and could easily see 800 yds and 10 tds from a man being drafted after Sproles and Moreno.

#14 davo32683

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 07:38 AM

He's been going around the 8-9 round mark in mocks I've done. I'll take him all day there.

#15 93_Confirmed

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 07:45 AM

I like him as a mid round pickup - especially in situations where I end up going WR heavy early. Buffalo will never figure out how to use Spiller correctly which keeps FJax in the RB2 conversation every year.

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#16 BirdmanSO

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 08:14 AM

Fred Jackson looks great right now due to his low ADP and I can't fault anyone for drafting him based on the upside there.

But I think I'm going to be in the minority here and say that it's not going to work out this year. He may be a valuable asset for a while this season, but I predict that his performance will decline as will his health. It doesn't necessarily need to be a big injury, just enough wear on the tires for him to be less effective. Coming off a high volume of carries last year and 33.5 yrs old I think the odds of him being good in the fantasy playoffs are slim.

In fact, we're already seeing some troubling signs. Sure, the usage is there from the coaching staff. Yes, the coaches don't seem to be able to use Spiller correctly and take advantage of his skills. Yet even with all of that Jackson is averaging a meager 3.3 yards per carry this preseason while Spiller is averaging 4.0

Obviously, this is too small a sample size to make any definite statements. But the situation is not quite as rosey as a lot of people seem to think.
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#17 Yanks4Life92

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 08:35 AM

Fred Jackson looks great right now due to his low ADP and I can't fault anyone for drafting him based on the upside there.

But I think I'm going to be in the minority here and say that it's not going to work out this year. He may be a valuable asset for a while this season, but I predict that his performance will decline as will his health. It doesn't necessarily need to be a big injury, just enough wear on the tires for him to be less effective. Coming off a high volume of carries last year and 33.5 yrs old I think the odds of him being good in the fantasy playoffs are slim.

In fact, we're already seeing some troubling signs. Sure, the usage is there from the coaching staff. Yes, the coaches don't seem to be able to use Spiller correctly and take advantage of his skills. Yet even with all of that Jackson is averaging a meager 3.3 yards per carry this preseason while Spiller is averaging 4.0

Obviously, this is too small a sample size to make any definite statements. But the situation is not quite as rosey as a lot of people seem to think.


Yes, it is too small to make any sort of intelligent, definite statement. Jackson had 206 carries last year, and has 1,138 carries all time. He hardly has the wear and tear of a typical 33-year-old RB. Adrian Peterson had 279 carries last year, 348 the year before, and has 2,033 carries in his career. Frank Gore had 276 carries last year and has 2,187 career carries. Let's relax on the OH NO WHEELS GOING TO BREAK DOWN, injury premonition stuff.
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#18 BirdmanSO

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 09:33 AM

Yes, it is too small to make any sort of intelligent, definite statement. Jackson had 206 carries last year, and has 1,138 carries all time. He hardly has the wear and tear of a typical 33-year-old RB. Adrian Peterson had 279 carries last year, 348 the year before, and has 2,033 carries in his career. Frank Gore had 276 carries last year and has 2,187 career carries. Let's relax on the OH NO WHEELS GOING TO BREAK DOWN, injury premonition stuff.


First off, the number of carries you cite are a bit misleading since they don't factor in receptions, which FJax gets more of than a lot of other RBs (like Peterson). If you add that into the mix Fred Jackson is coming off a season with 254 touches, not 207. His career touches increase from 1,138 to 1,394.

Also, citing Frank Gore isn't a compelling argument for me. He's not a safe bet with those numbers, even being much younger than FJax. I believe that Carlos Hyde will begin to fill in for Gore this season and might even overtake him altogether before the fantasy playoffs.

Listen, I'm not saying Jackson can't be good this year. He's probably a smart pick at his current ADP - I'll grant that. But to say it's overblown to talk about a 33 1/2 year old RB with 254 touches last year maybe breaking down... well, it's not.

Edited by BirdmanSO, 21 August 2014 - 09:40 AM.


#19 The Dirtdog

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 11:25 AM


Yes, it is too small to make any sort of intelligent, definite statement. Jackson had 206 carries last year, and has 1,138 carries all time. He hardly has the wear and tear of a typical 33-year-old RB. Adrian Peterson had 279 carries last year, 348 the year before, and has 2,033 carries in his career. Frank Gore had 276 carries last year and has 2,187 career carries. Let's relax on the OH NO WHEELS GOING TO BREAK DOWN, injury premonition stuff.


First off, the number of carries you cite are a bit misleading since they don't factor in receptions, which FJax gets more of than a lot of other RBs (like Peterson). If you add that into the mix Fred Jackson is coming off a season with 254 touches, not 207. His career touches increase from 1,138 to 1,394.

Also, citing Frank Gore isn't a compelling argument for me. He's not a safe bet with those numbers, even being much younger than FJax. I believe that Carlos Hyde will begin to fill in for Gore this season and might even overtake him altogether before the fantasy playoffs.

Listen, I'm not saying Jackson can't be good this year. He's probably a smart pick at his current ADP - I'll grant that. But to say it's overblown to talk about a 33 1/2 year old RB with 254 touches last year maybe breaking down... well, it's not.

If he was guaranteed to stay healthy he'd be a 4th or 5th round pick. The risk with his age/health is built into his ADP. This guy was a top 10 back last year WITH Spiller playing. He has all the goal line work, catches a lot of passes, and splits time with Spiller on everything else.

If he gets hurt/wears down, it won't kill anyone to cut a 9th round pick.

#20 96mnc

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 01:33 PM

Fred Jackson looks great right now due to his low ADP and I can't fault anyone for drafting him based on the upside there.

But I think I'm going to be in the minority here and say that it's not going to work out this year. He may be a valuable asset for a while this season, but I predict that his performance will decline as will his health. It doesn't necessarily need to be a big injury, just enough wear on the tires for him to be less effective. Coming off a high volume of carries last year and 33.5 yrs old I think the odds of him being good in the fantasy playoffs are slim.

In fact, we're already seeing some troubling signs. Sure, the usage is there from the coaching staff. Yes, the coaches don't seem to be able to use Spiller correctly and take advantage of his skills. Yet even with all of that Jackson is averaging a meager 3.3 yards per carry this preseason while Spiller is averaging 4.0

Obviously, this is too small a sample size to make any definite statements. But the situation is not quite as rosey as a lot of people seem to think.


Legitimate points to consider. But his ADP still returns value.

However, what you've made me think of is making sure I draft Bryce Brown in deeper leagues where I take Fjax.




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