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Elvis Andrus 2014 Outlook


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#1 2ndCitySox

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Posted 19 January 2014 - 12:59 PM

Elvis is entering his prime years, and had a pretty darn good year last year. He rated out very highly in my OBP league.

But can he reach 40 SB again? His power is about 5 HR, which is like a first basemen stealing 5 bags for you (ie, nice, but whatever, esp. In H2H)

What do you guys see for him this year? Having Fielder should add to the R totals.
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#2 ballfan4141

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Posted 19 January 2014 - 08:16 PM

I actually noticed he had his best season last year. plus they got some new hitters. I would target this guy more than any previous years.

#3 Marty Funkhouser

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Posted 19 January 2014 - 08:40 PM

Pretty high floor 90+ runs 60 RBI 30-40 steals and an average that won't hurt you. I like him quite a bit along with Everth. I think that's the way to go at shortstop with the top options being injury risks and big base stealers at a premium now.

#4 bbythepier

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 03:18 AM

View Post2ndCitySox, on 19 January 2014 - 12:59 PM, said:

Elvis is entering his prime years, and had a pretty darn good year last year. He rated out very highly in my OBP league.

But can he reach 40 SB again? His power is about 5 HR, which is like a first basemen stealing 5 bags for you (ie, nice, but whatever, esp. In H2H)

It's funny the difference between fantasy & real life. He actually had the worst OBP and 2nd worst wRC+ of his career, but those 40 SBs look so golden in make believe baseball. When you mine sweep all his underlying stats, nothing has changed. He hit only 17 2B, which cratered his SLG. Obviously Gary Pettis & co helped him with his pickoffs at 1B, and his SB frequency went up with a less powerful lineup. Will Ron W have him stay put more with Prince in town? My guess, probably not. But I still believe 42 was his ceiling. Runs? I don't see him topping his usual 90, even with Prince, but it's surely possible. I didn't see Carpenters 127 last year haha.

ADP ~60? He might be undervalued since he was about 4th round value last year (buoyed by those SBs).  ECabrera might eclipse him in SBs, but in Rs and RBIs Andrus will gain that value back. Andrus at 60 vs Cabrera at 100? All depends on how many standad deviations they are above average in SBs. Evereth could be better value if he got to 55+.

Last year during preseason, the forum took 2 pages to debate Andrus' 8/120 extension on the that kicks in next year, after the 2/10 he already had. Fangraphs argued that Andrus was worth 2 WAR in defense before ever stepping in the batters box, but noted this declines over time.. Then they suggested that his offense could improve. Only problem? Their own author, JZimmerman, suggested that hitters don't improve anymore they just get worse.
I said it then and I'll say it now. That extension might not go down as Jon Daniel's best move.

Edited by bbythepier, 06 February 2014 - 03:28 AM.


#5 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 04:27 AM

View Postbbythepier, on 06 February 2014 - 03:18 AM, said:

Their own author, JZimmerman, suggested that hitters don't improve anymore they just get worse.

I've glanced through Zimmernan's piece. The premise is horrible; hitters improve all of the time. At a certain age when their skills decline, obviously they don't. But come on! That is a horrible argument. Sounds like Zimmerman was just trying to make a name for himself. I like FanGraphs and I like Sabermetrics, but sometimes a stat geek is just a stat geek and he doesn't know s*** about baseball.

Off the top of my head, I can think of hundreds upon hundreds of ballplayers who improved over time since they entered the league.

Edited by Posting In The Clutch, 06 February 2014 - 04:28 AM.

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#6 bbythepier

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 10:32 AM

View PostPosting In The Clutch, on 06 February 2014 - 04:27 AM, said:

View Postbbythepier, on 06 February 2014 - 03:18 AM, said:

Their own author, JZimmerman, suggested that hitters don't improve anymore they just get worse.

I've glanced through Zimmernan's piece. The premise is horrible; hitters improve all of the time. At a certain age when their skills decline, obviously they don't. But come on! That is a horrible argument. Sounds like Zimmerman was just trying to make a name for himself. I like FanGraphs and I like Sabermetrics, but sometimes a stat geek is just a stat geek and he doesn't know s*** about baseball.

Off the top of my head, I can think of hundreds upon hundreds of ballplayers who improved over time since they entered the league.

1) When you say "hundreds upon hundreds", you're insinuating way back in the past. The whole premise of Zimmerman's research was based on how things have changed in the recent past.

2) You'd have to do research to disprove his theory. That article actually went against a defining "age curve" article that he had written 2 years earlier. And in human performance, there will always be outliers. This isn't research where say, the laws of physics must be preserved.

#7 Sidearmer

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 10:49 AM

View Postbbythepier, on 06 February 2014 - 10:32 AM, said:

View PostPosting In The Clutch, on 06 February 2014 - 04:27 AM, said:

View Postbbythepier, on 06 February 2014 - 03:18 AM, said:

Their own author, JZimmerman, suggested that hitters don't improve anymore they just get worse.

I've glanced through Zimmernan's piece. The premise is horrible; hitters improve all of the time. At a certain age when their skills decline, obviously they don't. But come on! That is a horrible argument. Sounds like Zimmerman was just trying to make a name for himself. I like FanGraphs and I like Sabermetrics, but sometimes a stat geek is just a stat geek and he doesn't know s*** about baseball.

Off the top of my head, I can think of hundreds upon hundreds of ballplayers who improved over time since they entered the league.

1) When you say "hundreds upon hundreds", you're insinuating way back in the past. The whole premise of Zimmerman's research was based on how things have changed in the recent past.

2) You'd have to do research to disprove his theory. That article actually went against a defining "age curve" article that he had written 2 years earlier. And in human performance, there will always be outliers. This isn't research where say, the laws of physics must be preserved.

The article has some merit but I don't think its construed correctly. I think for a player that has real talent they could always improve in their 20's, sometimes even in their 30's. The main guys that peak early I would think are guys that played very well after a call up, but when league made adjustments they couldn't make adjustments themselves. There's a much larger majority of these kind of players than the great players so the numbers will point toward this phenomenon.

To explain why this trend wasn't so prevalent in the past, the easy answer is advanced scouting. Once the MLB gets a a couple months of major league tape on a player, they will figure you out and expose your biggest weakness. This kind of scouting nowledge wasn't as great in the past.
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#8 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 11:00 AM

View Postbbythepier, on 06 February 2014 - 10:32 AM, said:

View PostPosting In The Clutch, on 06 February 2014 - 04:27 AM, said:

View Postbbythepier, on 06 February 2014 - 03:18 AM, said:

Their own author, JZimmerman, suggested that hitters don't improve anymore they just get worse.

I've glanced through Zimmernan's piece. The premise is horrible; hitters improve all of the time. At a certain age when their skills decline, obviously they don't. But come on! That is a horrible argument. Sounds like Zimmerman was just trying to make a name for himself. I like FanGraphs and I like Sabermetrics, but sometimes a stat geek is just a stat geek and he doesn't know s*** about baseball.

Off the top of my head, I can think of hundreds upon hundreds of ballplayers who improved over time since they entered the league.

1) When you say "hundreds upon hundreds", you're insinuating way back in the past. The whole premise of Zimmerman's research was based on how things have changed in the recent past.

2) You'd have to do research to disprove his theory. That article actually went against a defining "age curve" article that he had written 2 years earlier. And in human performance, there will always be outliers. This isn't research where say, the laws of physics must be preserved.

I'm not insinuating anything. I'm stating as a fact there are simply a lot of players who disprove the theory with their performance.

I don't have to research anything. Players who enter the league as rookies in any era CAN and DO get better over time. His theory is predicated on the idea of being a finished product when you reach the Majors, which is absurd.

For some guys, yes, they won't get better. But to make a blanket statement that no one gets better is ridiculous and controversial for controversy's sake.

Edited by Posting In The Clutch, 06 February 2014 - 11:01 AM.

You're television incarnate, Diana: Indifferent to suffering; insensitive to joy. All of life is reduced to the common rubble of banality. War, murder, death are all the same to you as bottles of beer. And the daily business of life is a corrupt comedy. You even shatter the sensations of time and space into split seconds and instant replays. You're madness, Diana. Virulent madness. And everything you touch dies with you. But not me. Not as long as I can feel pleasure, and pain... and love.

#9 TerranceP

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 11:28 AM

View PostPosting In The Clutch, on 06 February 2014 - 11:00 AM, said:

I'm not insinuating anything. I'm stating as a fact there are simply a lot of players who disprove the theory with their performance.

I don't have to research anything. Players who enter the league as rookies in any era CAN and DO get better over time. His theory is predicated on the idea of being a finished product when you reach the Majors, which is absurd.

For some guys, yes, they won't get better. But to make a blanket statement that no one gets better is ridiculous and controversial for controversy's sake.

The fact that you think that is what was stated just shows your basic lack of understanding.  Counterexamples do not disprove trends, as trends are merely what happens on the average.

#10 brockpapersizer

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 11:50 AM

Obviously PTC didn't read the article , as it's supposed to be a theory in the alleged post-PED era. Not sure if I agree with it in full. but definitely a very interesting read.

Edited by brockpapersizer, 06 February 2014 - 11:56 AM.

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#11 Patrick Bateman

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 12:39 PM

View Postbrockpapersizer, on 06 February 2014 - 11:50 AM, said:

Obviously PTC didn't read the article , as it's supposed to be a theory in the alleged post-PED era. Not sure if I agree with it in full. but definitely a very interesting read.

It was an interesting read although seemed to ignore external impacts of other things between eras and made what some may argue is a rather naive assumption that everything remains the same from 1995 to 2013 except for PED use.  He does touch on some other external stimuli that may help explain it but doesn't go into detail.  I guess it depends on how you feel about PEDs....
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#12 brockpapersizer

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 12:51 PM

View PostPatrick Bateman, on 06 February 2014 - 12:39 PM, said:

View Postbrockpapersizer, on 06 February 2014 - 11:50 AM, said:

Obviously PTC didn't read the article , as it's supposed to be a theory in the alleged post-PED era. Not sure if I agree with it in full. but definitely a very interesting read.

It was an interesting read although seemed to ignore external impacts of other things between eras and made what some may argue is a rather naive assumption that everything remains the same from 1995 to 2013 except for PED use.  He does touch on some other external stimuli that may help explain it but doesn't go into detail.  I guess it depends on how you feel about PEDs....

All I was trying to emphasize is that he claims it's a recent phenomenon. Not sure what you're trying to say.
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#13 TerranceP

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 12:55 PM

I think it has much less to do with peds and much more to do with players getting more and better coaching at a younger age.  The more that happens, the closer the performance peak gets to the athletic peak of the early 20s.  Whatever the cause, the effect is clearly there.

#14 Patrick Bateman

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 01:02 PM

View Postbrockpapersizer, on 06 February 2014 - 12:51 PM, said:

View PostPatrick Bateman, on 06 February 2014 - 12:39 PM, said:

View Postbrockpapersizer, on 06 February 2014 - 11:50 AM, said:

Obviously PTC didn't read the article , as it's supposed to be a theory in the alleged post-PED era. Not sure if I agree with it in full. but definitely a very interesting read.

It was an interesting read although seemed to ignore external impacts of other things between eras and made what some may argue is a rather naive assumption that everything remains the same from 1995 to 2013 except for PED use.  He does touch on some other external stimuli that may help explain it but doesn't go into detail.  I guess it depends on how you feel about PEDs....

All I was trying to emphasize is that he claims it's a recent phenomenon. Not sure what you're trying to say.

Just agreeing that it was an interesting thesis.....
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#15 GamblorLA

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 08:58 AM

I'm starting my value hunt and he's really jumping out at me. Nobody seems to expect a huge difference from last year, but there's still a lot of separation between his actual rank and his expert ranking.

Yahoo final ranking for 2013: 54  His ranking in their top 250: 90 ADP at the moment is 84.

Espn is sharper, with a player rater rank of 36 and an expert rank of 42.

Given that he's also healthy and consistent, he'll be one of my primary targets in my Yahoo league. I assume their rankings will sharpen up, but maybe not.  The only question is how long to wait.

#16 GrandDaddy

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 07:30 AM

View Postbbythepier, on 06 February 2014 - 03:18 AM, said:

View Post2ndCitySox, on 19 January 2014 - 12:59 PM, said:

Elvis is entering his prime years, and had a pretty darn good year last year. He rated out very highly in my OBP league.

But can he reach 40 SB again? His power is about 5 HR, which is like a first basemen stealing 5 bags for you (ie, nice, but whatever, esp. In H2H)

It's funny the difference between fantasy & real life. He actually had the worst OBP and 2nd worst wRC+ of his career, but those 40 SBs look so golden in make believe baseball. When you mine sweep all his underlying stats, nothing has changed. He hit only 17 2B, which cratered his SLG. Obviously Gary Pettis & co helped him with his pickoffs at 1B, and his SB frequency went up with a less powerful lineup. Will Ron W have him stay put more with Prince in town? My guess, probably not. But I still believe 42 was his ceiling. Runs? I don't see him topping his usual 90, even with Prince, but it's surely possible. I didn't see Carpenters 127 last year haha.

ADP ~60? He might be undervalued since he was about 4th round value last year (buoyed by those SBs).  ECabrera might eclipse him in SBs, but in Rs and RBIs Andrus will gain that value back. Andrus at 60 vs Cabrera at 100? All depends on how many standad deviations they are above average in SBs. Evereth could be better value if he got to 55+.

Last year during preseason, the forum took 2 pages to debate Andrus' 8/120 extension on the that kicks in next year, after the 2/10 he already had. Fangraphs argued that Andrus was worth 2 WAR in defense before ever stepping in the batters box, but noted this declines over time.. Then they suggested that his offense could improve. Only problem? Their own author, JZimmerman, suggested that hitters don't improve anymore they just get worse.
I said it then and I'll say it now. That extension might not go down as Jon Daniel's best move.

I liked your post, but you are not saying much here (referring to the bold).

#17 Slatykamora

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 11:03 AM

View Postbrockpapersizer, on 06 February 2014 - 12:51 PM, said:

View PostPatrick Bateman, on 06 February 2014 - 12:39 PM, said:

View Postbrockpapersizer, on 06 February 2014 - 11:50 AM, said:

Obviously PTC didn't read the article , as it's supposed to be a theory in the alleged post-PED era. Not sure if I agree with it in full. but definitely a very interesting read.

It was an interesting read although seemed to ignore external impacts of other things between eras and made what some may argue is a rather naive assumption that everything remains the same from 1995 to 2013 except for PED use.  He does touch on some other external stimuli that may help explain it but doesn't go into detail.  I guess it depends on how you feel about PEDs....

All I was trying to emphasize is that he claims it's a recent phenomenon. Not sure what you're trying to say.

I agree it was interesting. According to RC+. Its an ever so slight increase from age 21 to 25. I remember a Prospectus Article about how when you get called up. Determines your prime. Usually exceptional Talents get called up 21 or younger. Peak earlier. Having a higher peak than Older Prospects.

I'd like to see a Re-do of this. But separated by the age they were called up.

Edited by Slatykamora, 03 March 2014 - 11:06 AM.


#18 Orion Braun

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 08:24 PM

Hmm... this is somewhat concerning. Seems to be lingering problem this spring. Scratched from the lineup today, now shut down from throwing for a few days.

http://fansided.com/...rangers/#!AvmMr

Andrus getting shut down from throwing

Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus, who is dealing with a sore right elbow, will not throw for the next three days. Next step is for Dr. Meister to evaluate him on Friday so Andrus will not play until at least the weekend.

Edited by Orion Braun, 18 March 2014 - 08:25 PM.

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#19 LIONS FAN-dsn

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 08:46 PM

Visiting a Dr.


Yikes
14 Team H2H Redraft League

C- Matt Wieters
1B- Anthony Rizzo
2B- Kolten Wong
3B- Edwin Encarnacion
SS- Troy Tulowitzki
OF- Shin-Soo Choo
OF- Billy Hamilton
OF- Jose Bautista
Util- Brandon Belt

Bench:  Austin Jackson

SP: Gio Gonzalez, Julio Teheran, Danny Salazar, Zack Wheeler, Corey Kluber, Jonathon Niese, Martin Perez, James Paxton(DL)

RP: David Robertson(DL), Sergio Santos, Jose Valverde, Luke Gregerson

#20 rasto21585

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 09:16 PM

If it's serious, does profar move to ss?
14 team h2h keeper

pg damian lillard
g martel webster
sg james harden
sf kevin durant
f john henson
pf derrek favors
c al jefferson
c demarcus cousins
util channing frye
util Jeff Teague
bn ben mclemore
bn Lou Williams
bn brendan wright




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