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Calvin Johnson 2014 Season Outlook


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#1 Shake

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 11:43 PM

I'm going to go out on a limb and say I think this guy is pretty good.

Even in his "down" year he was still 3rd best at his position (despite missing 2 games) and 8th overall (non qb) in standard points.

This off-season: New coach, knee scoped and finger fixed.

Discuss.

Edited by Shake, 27 January 2014 - 11:44 PM.


#2 Gains

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 12:36 AM

seems like the 2nd year he has had finger issues.

knee is on-going

so reliable with his huge # of targets when he is really playing........not a decoy or sitting.

not a caldwell fan but for fantasy I don't see how caldwell would be worse for Calvin then Schwartz.

More then likely next year he is no 1 receiver. at worst he is 3rd again.

#3 PackersFan1979

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 01:45 AM

Where you guys drafting him?

#4 Shake

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 03:03 AM

View PostWhoremonger, on 28 January 2014 - 01:45 AM, said:

Where you guys drafting him?

I know I'm gonna get all kinds of stuff thrown at me for saying this but I'm considering him for my number 1 overall pick that I have in my .5 ppr league. That's of course so long as he's healthy come season time (Which I think he will be) and the coaching change doesn't turn them in to more of a balanced team.

I can hear mumbles and grumbles starting so hear me out.

With the fact that RBs have so much turnover year to year as I've posted countless times, I don't see this as such a bad option in certain leagues (ppr), not sure if I'd do this in standard, however he's actually been a solid pick even in standard leagues. I feel this guy is just a safer pick in the first round to me than to pick a rb, which as a position has a higher injury risk. If anyone drafted RBs in the first round last year (or the last few years) you may have done well, or you may have picked a total bust.

Calvin has finished 1st, 1st, and 3rd at WR in the past 3 seasons...pretty consistent. Also if you look at where he finished overall (non qb, standard points) he finished 3rd overall in 2011, 6th overall in 2012, and 8th overall in 2013 (despite missing 2 games). So that shows you he's finishing up there with the top 5 RBs even in standard leagues, probably a little bit better in ppr.

All that being said, again I'd most likely really only consider this in the case of a PPR league, especially if said league starts 3 WR's. I'd be surprised if anyone else shared this view, as any time you bring up the idea of a WR going anywhere in the top 3 or so people lose their minds. My guess would be he goes anywhere from as high as 4th overall to 10th overall (if you have a league where QBs get taken early) in most drafts.

Edited by Shake, 28 January 2014 - 03:05 AM.


#5 joshua18

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 08:19 AM

View PostShake, on 28 January 2014 - 03:03 AM, said:

View PostWhoremonger, on 28 January 2014 - 01:45 AM, said:

Where you guys drafting him?

I know I'm gonna get all kinds of stuff thrown at me for saying this but I'm considering him for my number 1 overall pick that I have in my .5 ppr league. That's of course so long as he's healthy come season time (Which I think he will be) and the coaching change doesn't turn them in to more of a balanced team.

I can hear mumbles and grumbles starting so hear me out.

With the fact that RBs have so much turnover year to year as I've posted countless times, I don't see this as such a bad option in certain leagues (ppr), not sure if I'd do this in standard, however he's actually been a solid pick even in standard leagues. I feel this guy is just a safer pick in the first round to me than to pick a rb, which as a position has a higher injury risk. If anyone drafted RBs in the first round last year (or the last few years) you may have done well, or you may have picked a total bust.

Calvin has finished 1st, 1st, and 3rd at WR in the past 3 seasons...pretty consistent. Also if you look at where he finished overall (non qb, standard points) he finished 3rd overall in 2011, 6th overall in 2012, and 8th overall in 2013 (despite missing 2 games). So that shows you he's finishing up there with the top 5 RBs even in standard leagues, probably a little bit better in ppr.

All that being said, again I'd most likely really only consider this in the case of a PPR league, especially if said league starts 3 WR's. I'd be surprised if anyone else shared this view, as any time you bring up the idea of a WR going anywhere in the top 3 or so people lose their minds. My guess would be he goes anywhere from as high as 4th overall to 10th overall (if you have a league where QBs get taken early) in most drafts.

I'd draft him after Charles, McCoy and Forte.  Definitely would draft him ahead of AP and Lynch.

#6 ckern92

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 03:40 PM

He's Calvin Johnson. Calvin Freakin Johnson.
He's named after an alien robot with ungodly powers.
He's the #1 receiver of all time.
His quarterback throws to him in octople coverage and he still catches it.
He's the greatest thing since sliced bread and was probably more adorable than the gerber baby as a child.
Chuck Norris praises him.
I heard he saved a hostage in a robbery by catching a bullet.
/thread.
My fantasy blog:
www.kernfootball.wordpress.com

#7 CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 04:13 PM

top 5 pick, any format, i don't care how "deep" WR is or #omgshallow RB is.

#8 ludawg23

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 05:03 PM

Calvin over AP? I don't think so...
12 team 5x5 H2H League

C - Lucroy
1st - V-Mart
2nd - Kipnis
SS - Castro
3rd - Aramis
OF - Trout, Choo, Bautisa
UTIL - Pujols, Panda, Lind
BENCH - Mesoraco, R. Davis, Taveras

SP - Anibal, Shields, Iwakumi, Cashner, Samardzija, E. Santana, Masterson, Hudson, McHugh
RP - Soria, Doolittle, Casilla, McGee

#9 Shake

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 05:06 PM

View Postludawg23, on 28 January 2014 - 05:03 PM, said:

Calvin over AP? I don't think so...

I mean, Calvin did score more fantasy points (standard league) than AP last season, in the same amount of games played. I don't think it's such a stretch.

#10 joshua18

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 05:14 PM

View Postludawg23, on 28 January 2014 - 05:03 PM, said:

Calvin over AP? I don't think so...

Why not?  He's scored more points than AP in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

#11 petekrum

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 09:08 PM

View Postjoshua18, on 28 January 2014 - 05:14 PM, said:

View Postludawg23, on 28 January 2014 - 05:03 PM, said:

Calvin over AP? I don't think so...

Why not?  He's scored more points than AP in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

Because if I take AP in the first and the best available receiver in the second and you take Calvin in the first and the best available RB in the second, I'll beat you ever day of the week. That's why.

Edited by petekrum, 28 January 2014 - 09:09 PM.

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#12 joshua18

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 09:19 PM

View Postpetekrum, on 28 January 2014 - 09:08 PM, said:

View Postjoshua18, on 28 January 2014 - 05:14 PM, said:

View Postludawg23, on 28 January 2014 - 05:03 PM, said:

Calvin over AP? I don't think so...

Why not?  He's scored more points than AP in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

Because if I take AP in the first and the best available receiver in the second and you take Calvin in the first and the best available RB in the second, I'll beat you ever day of the week. That's why.

No you won't.  Absolutely not.  
Calvin + Forte last year would have beaten AP plus AJ Green.  That's just one scenario where you would have lost.  

Plus I don't have to take an RB1 in the 2nd round....I could just take another top-5 WR like D. Thomas or Gordon.

#13 Shake

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 09:20 PM

View Postpetekrum, on 28 January 2014 - 09:08 PM, said:

View Postjoshua18, on 28 January 2014 - 05:14 PM, said:

View Postludawg23, on 28 January 2014 - 05:03 PM, said:

Calvin over AP? I don't think so...

Why not?  He's scored more points than AP in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

Because if I take AP in the first and the best available receiver in the second and you take Calvin in the first and the best available RB in the second, I'll beat you ever day of the week. That's why.

.....And we're at that point of the year again.

This is completely a blanket statement. It's not even remotely true the way you're claiming it is, other wise everyone would take a RB no matter what in the first round. It's all subjective to what player you took in each round, not the simple fact that you chose AP/WR or Calvin/RB...it matters who you chose.

Even more than that you can't make that argument because that assumes someone will go RB in the second when they could go Calvin/next best elite WR instead of taking the "next best RB".

#14 Ryan81

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 11:12 PM

View Postpetekrum, on 28 January 2014 - 09:08 PM, said:

View Postjoshua18, on 28 January 2014 - 05:14 PM, said:

View Postludawg23, on 28 January 2014 - 05:03 PM, said:

Calvin over AP? I don't think so...

Why not?  He's scored more points than AP in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

Because if I take AP in the first and the best available receiver in the second and you take Calvin in the first and the best available RB in the second, I'll beat you ever day of the week. That's why.
wat.
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RW Mock Real League - 14 team, 6 point all TDs, .5 ppr(slow drafting)
QB: Philip Rivers
RB1: Reggie Bush
RB2: Pierre Thomas
WR1: Dez Bryant
WR2: Jordy Nelson
W/R/T: Alshon Jeffery
W/R/T: Cecil Shorts III
TE: Jason Witten
DST: Cincinnati Bengals
Bench: Travaris Cadet, Ahmad Bradshaw, Mike Tolbert, James Starks

#15 cbe_88

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 12:08 AM

View Postpetekrum, on 28 January 2014 - 09:08 PM, said:

View Postjoshua18, on 28 January 2014 - 05:14 PM, said:

View Postludawg23, on 28 January 2014 - 05:03 PM, said:

Calvin over AP? I don't think so...

Why not?  He's scored more points than AP in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

Because if I take AP in the first and the best available receiver in the second and you take Calvin in the first and the best available RB in the second, I'll beat you ever day of the week. That's why.

I'd take AP over Calvin myself, but it's close. Two legendary players that will both go down as one of the best at their positions.

A lot depends on which players you like at each position, and where those players are going. Maybe in next years crop there's several rbs I like in the 2nd-3rd round range, that would lean me to taking Calvin. Or if all of the RBs u like could be gone by you're 3rd round pick, this might lean you toward AP.

Regardless, though, Calvin muscles his way in my rankings early, he has to.

McCoy
Charles
AP
Calvin


#16 RMJ_12

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 02:46 AM

View Postpetekrum, on 28 January 2014 - 09:08 PM, said:

View Postjoshua18, on 28 January 2014 - 05:14 PM, said:

View Postludawg23, on 28 January 2014 - 05:03 PM, said:

Calvin over AP? I don't think so...

Why not?  He's scored more points than AP in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

Because if I take AP in the first and the best available receiver in the second and you take Calvin in the first and the best available RB in the second, I'll beat you ever day of the week. That's why.
depends on your draft strategy, depends who you draft.

if i was the guy who drafted josh gordon in the 10th round last year i didnt really need calvin but if i was the guy who drafted knowshon late and got zac stacy off of waivers then calvin was a way better pick for me over AP.

#17 joshua18

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 08:51 AM

View PostRMJ_12, on 29 January 2014 - 02:46 AM, said:

View Postpetekrum, on 28 January 2014 - 09:08 PM, said:

View Postjoshua18, on 28 January 2014 - 05:14 PM, said:

View Postludawg23, on 28 January 2014 - 05:03 PM, said:

Calvin over AP? I don't think so...

Why not?  He's scored more points than AP in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

Because if I take AP in the first and the best available receiver in the second and you take Calvin in the first and the best available RB in the second, I'll beat you ever day of the week. That's why.
depends on your draft strategy, depends who you draft.

if i was the guy who drafted josh gordon in the 10th round last year i didnt really need calvin but if i was the guy who drafted knowshon late and got zac stacy off of waivers then calvin was a way better pick for me over AP.

But even if you don't factor in late round steals (i.e. if you just look at the performance of your 1st and 2nd round draft picks), there is no basis for saying that AP is definitely better than Megatron as a 1st round pick.

#18 ludawg23

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 09:30 AM

For me, it goes back to position scarcity.  Both guys are proven commodities but anytime you can acquire an elite RB to build your team around, that's the correct choice.  Ultimately, there a decent number of elite WRs that can be had in the 2nd-3rd rounds...

Assuming Calvin goes in the 1st and someone grabs Graham as well, that leaves you with DT/Gordon/Dez/Green/Marshall/Jeffrey/Julio/DJAX/Brown/Cobb/Nelson and probably a few others I'd be comfortable with at my WR1 slot.

I don't think the same can be said at the RB position as it's extremely volatile and true, safe RB1 guys are tough to come by.  My top 6 RBs are Charles/McCoy/AP/Forte/Lynch/Lacey...after that, there are big time question marks surrounding the remaining field.

Simply put - the position is at an alltime low in terms of depth and quality while WRs are the exact opposite.

Once those RBs are off the board - I believe that's when drafting Calvin becomes feasible.  I'd personally rather grab one of those top 6 RBs and worry about WR after.

So yeah - I would never draft Calvin over AP.  And now you have Turner as your OC...watch out.

Edited by ludawg23, 29 January 2014 - 09:36 AM.

12 team 5x5 H2H League

C - Lucroy
1st - V-Mart
2nd - Kipnis
SS - Castro
3rd - Aramis
OF - Trout, Choo, Bautisa
UTIL - Pujols, Panda, Lind
BENCH - Mesoraco, R. Davis, Taveras

SP - Anibal, Shields, Iwakumi, Cashner, Samardzija, E. Santana, Masterson, Hudson, McHugh
RP - Soria, Doolittle, Casilla, McGee

#19 petekrum

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 10:18 AM

View Postjoshua18, on 28 January 2014 - 09:19 PM, said:

View Postpetekrum, on 28 January 2014 - 09:08 PM, said:

View Postjoshua18, on 28 January 2014 - 05:14 PM, said:

View Postludawg23, on 28 January 2014 - 05:03 PM, said:

Calvin over AP? I don't think so...

Why not?  He's scored more points than AP in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

Because if I take AP in the first and the best available receiver in the second and you take Calvin in the first and the best available RB in the second, I'll beat you ever day of the week. That's why.

No you won't.  Absolutely not.  
Calvin + Forte last year would have beaten AP plus AJ Green.  That's just one scenario where you would have lost.  

Plus I don't have to take an RB1 in the 2nd round....I could just take another top-5 WR like D. Thomas or Gordon.

Hey, go for it. My way I have AP, DT, and Gordon....your way you have Calvin, DT, and Gore.
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It is not cowardice. It is love of life.

#20 petekrum

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 10:24 AM

I mean I love Calvin as much as the next guy but people on here talk about him like he's outscoring the field by 100 points or something. Last year there were a half a dozen receivers within 16 points off him including 2 who outscored him. Taking him over AP, McCoy, or Charles just isn't a smart move.
The boar runs from the tiger.
It is not cowardice. It is love of life.




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