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Montee Ball 2014 Season Outlook


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#1 joshua18

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 09:11 AM

Montee Ball admitted that the Broncos playbook was overwhelming initially.

Many observers, including us, expected Ball to step right in as the feature back for the Broncos in Week 1. In hindsight, that was overly optimistic as he came from Wisconsin's simple run-first scheme. "Just going from a college playbook to an NFL playbook is very difficult, but going from a college playbook to Peyton Manning's playbook is a whole another story," Ball said. As the season moved along, he gradually grasped his responsibilities and established himself as a trustworthy complement to Knowshon Moreno. Expect 9-13 touches in the Super Bowl for Ball and a possible starting role in 2014 as Moreno hits free agency.



Related: Knowshon Moreno


Obviously this depends on whether Moreno leaves as a FA, but where should Ball be drafted if he does? Where should he be drafted if he is Moreno's backup again? Is Hillman a threat to steal carries? Please discuss.

#2 munde53

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 09:27 AM

If/when Moreno leaves, Ball will be hyped up like no other back I can remember. If you thought the hype on David Wilson was bad, Ball's will be even greater because of the offense he'll be in.

If in the preseason he is able to overtake Hillman as the unquestioned starting back, he'll go in the 2nd round in many leagues. I also wouldn't be surprised if he was hyped up enough to sneak up into the 1st in some leagues.

He's a better runner than Moreno, and has a ton of upside, but he's going to be a huge gamble just like Wilson was in 2013.

12 Team Standard Re-Draft (5-1)
QB: C Newton, C Palmer
RB: J Bell, B Tate, I Crowell, L Taliaferro, T Mason, J Randle 
WR: D Bryant, J Jones, A Brown
TE:  R Gronkowski, J Reed     K: S Hauschka     Def: New England

 

12 Team Auction Keeper (4-2)

QB: P Rivers, K Cousins

RB: B Tate, Z Stacy, A Bradshaw, S Vereen, I Crowell, S Vereen, A Williams, L Taliaferro, S Johnson

WR: J Nelson, K Allen, R White, V Cruz (IR), B, Tyms, J Brown

TE: A Gates     K: D Bailey     Def: New England

 

10 Team Standard One Keeper (2-4)
QB: M Ryan
RB: Z Stacy (17th), A Ellington, J Bell, B Tate, S Johnson, J Randle
WR: C Johnson, K Allen, R White, B Quick, R Wayne, J Hunter
TE: J Reed, N Paul     K: S Hauschka     Def: New England


#3 owenmills

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 10:35 AM

I don't think Denver will let Moreno leave.

As his backup in 2014 I'd expect him to be drafted how Ben Tate was, in the middle rounds. Essentially a super high upside handcuff. Similar to when people would draft Foster and have to reach for Tate earlier than they wanted, that's what Moreno owners will have to do next year with Ball.
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#4 hotel06

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 10:35 AM

From Rotoworld: "Many observers, including us, expected Ball to step right in as the feature back for the Broncos in Week 1. In hindsight, that was overly optimistic."

Yep. And when people tried warning Rotoworld about taking an unproven rookie RB in a John Fox offense, Rotoworld just responded with: "They took him in the 2nd round and Peyton Manning." Seriously. That was it. So they recommended taking Ball in the FOURTH ROUND in drafts while completely missing the boat on Julius Thomas and whiffing on the whole "Welker and Decker are just going to eat into each other's production!!!"

Rotoworld - reporting good news for quite a long time but still lacking significantly in any kind of real fantasy analysis.

#5 joshua18

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 10:37 AM

From Rotoworld: "Many observers, including us, expected Ball to step right in as the feature back for the Broncos in Week 1. In hindsight, that was overly optimistic."

Yep. And when people tried warning Rotoworld about taking an unproven rookie RB in a John Fox offense, Rotoworld just responded with: "They took him in the 2nd round and Peyton Manning." Seriously. That was it. So they recommended taking Ball in the FOURTH ROUND in drafts while completely missing the boat on Julius Thomas and whiffing on the whole "Welker and Decker are just going to eat into each other's production!!!"

Rotoworld - reporting good news for quite a long time but still lacking significantly in any kind of real fantasy analysis.


Everyone missed the boat on Moreno...if Denver had cut him in the preseason (as many thought they would), Ball would have been the biggest beneficiary.

#6 petekrum

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 10:38 AM

It was obvious late in the year he is superior to Moreno so if he gets the job the sky is the limit. Unlike a back like Wilson he plays in a stable offense that it is impossible to overload the box against and which will provide multiple opportunities near the goal line.
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#7 joshua18

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 10:40 AM

It was obvious late in the year he is superior to Moreno so if he gets the job the sky is the limit. Unlike a back like Wilson he plays in a stable offense that it is impossible to overload the box against and which will provide multiple opportunities near the goal line.


Wow, munde53 was right. I can just see storylines like this exploding the next 6 months leading to Ball being taken in the late 1st round.

#8 munde53

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 10:46 AM


It was obvious late in the year he is superior to Moreno so if he gets the job the sky is the limit. Unlike a back like Wilson he plays in a stable offense that it is impossible to overload the box against and which will provide multiple opportunities near the goal line.


Wow, munde53 was right. I can just see storylines like this exploding the next 6 months leading to Ball being taken in the late 1st round.

Exactly. I'm not comparing the offensive situations between Ball and Wilson, I'm comparing the impending hype train for an equally unproven back.

Though I think Ball is far more likely to succeed than Wilson was, he's still going to be hyped up too much for me to take a shot on him.

If Moreno leaves this thread will absolute blow up with 1,800+ yard and 15 TD predictions. Be prepared.

12 Team Standard Re-Draft (5-1)
QB: C Newton, C Palmer
RB: J Bell, B Tate, I Crowell, L Taliaferro, T Mason, J Randle 
WR: D Bryant, J Jones, A Brown
TE:  R Gronkowski, J Reed     K: S Hauschka     Def: New England

 

12 Team Auction Keeper (4-2)

QB: P Rivers, K Cousins

RB: B Tate, Z Stacy, A Bradshaw, S Vereen, I Crowell, S Vereen, A Williams, L Taliaferro, S Johnson

WR: J Nelson, K Allen, R White, V Cruz (IR), B, Tyms, J Brown

TE: A Gates     K: D Bailey     Def: New England

 

10 Team Standard One Keeper (2-4)
QB: M Ryan
RB: Z Stacy (17th), A Ellington, J Bell, B Tate, S Johnson, J Randle
WR: C Johnson, K Allen, R White, B Quick, R Wayne, J Hunter
TE: J Reed, N Paul     K: S Hauschka     Def: New England


#9 owenmills

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 10:50 AM

If we redrafted for 2013 where would Moreno be drafted, knowing what we know now? Late 1st early 2nd? I don't think that's unreasonable for Ball next year if he becomes the starter and that offense in intact. Ball should replicate Moreno's output at least.
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#10 youngrice

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 01:14 PM

If Ball is the unquestioned starter going into next year I don't see him making it out of the first round. But thats a big if and there are alot of things that would have to go right for that to happen.

#11 jimithing11

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 01:16 PM

NFL Network reporting Broncos don't think they can re-sign Moreno.

FML. I guess that's my bad because I figured there was no way 2 months ago Moreno would walk. I dropped Ball in a keeper league when he was delegated to third string.

Now he's probably going to be a second round pick in 2014

10-team PPR Keeper League

QB -- Luck
RB -- Charles, Foster, Hyde, K. Davis, Blue
WR -- Crabtree, Wallace, Harvin, Hunter, J. Gordon, Harvin, Andre Holmes
TE -- Kelce
K -- Streamling
DST -- Streaming

 

14-team PPR Keeper League

 

QB -- Stafford

RB -- J. Bell, Vereen, Oliver, F. Jackson, Hillman, A. Williams

WR -- Julio, Brown, Crabtree, Edelman, Hawkins

TE -- Walker

K -- Gostowski

DST -- Bengals

 


#12 munde53

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 01:18 PM


NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports the Broncos aren't expected to be able to re-sign impending free agent Knowshon Moreno.

The way RapSheet phrases it, it sounds like the Broncos don't believe they'll be able to afford Moreno. Denver currently has just over $122 million committed to the projected $126 million salary cap for 2014. Moreno is coming off a career year in which he rushed for 1,038 yards and ten touchdowns, while averaging 4.3 YPC. He also caught 60 balls for 548 yards and three additional scores. Moreno wasn't much of a player before Peyton Manning got to town, as he had been relegated to scout team at one point. He's been able to run against soft fronts due to the Broncos' lethal aerial attack. Moreno is a prime candidate to be vastly overpaid this offseason.




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12 Team Standard Re-Draft (5-1)
QB: C Newton, C Palmer
RB: J Bell, B Tate, I Crowell, L Taliaferro, T Mason, J Randle 
WR: D Bryant, J Jones, A Brown
TE:  R Gronkowski, J Reed     K: S Hauschka     Def: New England

 

12 Team Auction Keeper (4-2)

QB: P Rivers, K Cousins

RB: B Tate, Z Stacy, A Bradshaw, S Vereen, I Crowell, S Vereen, A Williams, L Taliaferro, S Johnson

WR: J Nelson, K Allen, R White, V Cruz (IR), B, Tyms, J Brown

TE: A Gates     K: D Bailey     Def: New England

 

10 Team Standard One Keeper (2-4)
QB: M Ryan
RB: Z Stacy (17th), A Ellington, J Bell, B Tate, S Johnson, J Randle
WR: C Johnson, K Allen, R White, B Quick, R Wayne, J Hunter
TE: J Reed, N Paul     K: S Hauschka     Def: New England


#13 jimithing11

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 01:20 PM

In before the hype train starts getting out of control :lol:

10-team PPR Keeper League

QB -- Luck
RB -- Charles, Foster, Hyde, K. Davis, Blue
WR -- Crabtree, Wallace, Harvin, Hunter, J. Gordon, Harvin, Andre Holmes
TE -- Kelce
K -- Streamling
DST -- Streaming

 

14-team PPR Keeper League

 

QB -- Stafford

RB -- J. Bell, Vereen, Oliver, F. Jackson, Hillman, A. Williams

WR -- Julio, Brown, Crabtree, Edelman, Hawkins

TE -- Walker

K -- Gostowski

DST -- Bengals

 


#14 Dr.Funktopus

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 01:46 PM

If moreno stays, where would you draft him? A little later than that is where Ball will go next year.

In the Eddie Lacy Thread, I wrote out my top RBs for 2014 as they stand right now (meaning before any FA movement or new draft class). Here is what I thought:

1. Jamaal Charles
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Adrian Peterson (with new OC Norv Turner - re: Ladanian Tomlinson)
4. Matt Forte
5. Marshawn Lynch
6. Knowshon Moreno (depending upon whether he resigns with Denver)
7. Eddie Lacy
8. DeMarco Murray
9. Alfred Morris
10. Reggie Bush (depending on where Joique goes)

Given the above, I think it is not crazy to think people will look at him as the #9 or #10 back to be taken off the board. With that, I would say 1st round is a big stretch in re-draft, but high to mid 2nd is definitely where he will go if moreno leaves

12 Team Auction Keeper League - 0.5 per Reception (2013):
QB: Peyton Manning;
RBs: Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy
WRs: Demaryius Thomas (K), Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton (K)
TE: Vernon Davis; Flex: Kendall Wright
K: Blair Walsh; Def: St. Louis Rams
Bench: Jordan Reed, Riley Cooper, Steven Jackson
Michael Crabtree, DeAngelo Williams, Jordan Todman

12 Team Auction Keeper League - 0.5 per Reception (2014):
QB: Aaron Rodgers;
RBs: Eddie Lacy (K), DeMarco Murray
WRs: Demaryius Thomas (K), Keenan Allen (K), Mike Wallace
TE: Martellus Bennett; Flex: Rashad Jennings
K: Mason Crosby; Def: Detroit Lions

Bench: Steven Jackson, Zach Ertz, Andrew Hawkins, Brian Quick,
Andre Williams, Andre Holmes, Ben Roethlisberger, Malcolm Floyd


#15 munde53

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 01:51 PM

If moreno stays, where would you draft him? A little later than that is where Ball will go next year.

In the Eddie Lacy Thread, I wrote out my top RBs for 2014 as they stand right now (meaning before any FA movement or new draft class). Here is what I thought:

1. Jamaal Charles
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Adrian Peterson (with new OC Norv Turner - re: Ladanian Tomlinson)
4. Matt Forte
5. Marshawn Lynch
6. Knowshon Moreno (depending upon whether he resigns with Denver)
7. Eddie Lacy
8. DeMarco Murray
9. Alfred Morris
10. Reggie Bush (depending on where Joique goes)

Given the above, I think it is not crazy to think people will look at him as the #9 or #10 back to be taken off the board. With that, I would say 1st round is a big stretch in re-draft, but high to mid 2nd is definitely where he will go if moreno leaves

Ball will go ahead of where Moreno would go if he remained on the Broncos. I guarantee the hype train will build Ball up enough where some reach for him in the first. Ball is simply a better runner than Moreno.

Moreno would be mid second round if he stayed with the Broncos, Ball will be late first early second if he left.

12 Team Standard Re-Draft (5-1)
QB: C Newton, C Palmer
RB: J Bell, B Tate, I Crowell, L Taliaferro, T Mason, J Randle 
WR: D Bryant, J Jones, A Brown
TE:  R Gronkowski, J Reed     K: S Hauschka     Def: New England

 

12 Team Auction Keeper (4-2)

QB: P Rivers, K Cousins

RB: B Tate, Z Stacy, A Bradshaw, S Vereen, I Crowell, S Vereen, A Williams, L Taliaferro, S Johnson

WR: J Nelson, K Allen, R White, V Cruz (IR), B, Tyms, J Brown

TE: A Gates     K: D Bailey     Def: New England

 

10 Team Standard One Keeper (2-4)
QB: M Ryan
RB: Z Stacy (17th), A Ellington, J Bell, B Tate, S Johnson, J Randle
WR: C Johnson, K Allen, R White, B Quick, R Wayne, J Hunter
TE: J Reed, N Paul     K: S Hauschka     Def: New England


#16 Dr.Funktopus

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 02:05 PM

The question here though is that how much more value can Ball bring to the broncos above what Moreno brought this year? It is not as if the use of RB1 to RB2 ratio will change all that much, so you can't just add up both Ball and moreno's stats from this year and say that is what he can bring next year. I could buy in to your rationale for Ball being drafted higher than moreno whould have been if he were to stay in Denver, but i cant really envision a scenario where Ball's statline is greater than moreno's this year. The Broncos offensive scheme just cant support a 1200+ runner, and 13 total TDs is already a huge sum - I just dont think hype alone would position Ball's expected draft value past what moreno's would have been because where is there room to grow/outperform?

I agree he will be overhyped, and i agree his value will surge as a result to something greater than where he should be taken. But this may be a better argument to understand in Auction than snake. I can see something similar to what happened this year with Lacy in my draft - where two people desperate to the last viable option for particular need drives a guys value to much higher than expected returns. fortunately this paid off for me this year where i got Lacy for $28, at the time a huge sum for him, but in hindsight made me look genius for getting a RB1 at half a RB1 value. This rationale would apply to someone who missed out on all the biggest names during the bidding process, and sees their choice for RB1 between a Ball and a borderline RB1 player. A bidding war between the two parties ensues, driving the bid from something modest for Ball, say $35-40 to something like $55. I can live with the first value, but over $50 would mirror some of your thoughts Munde53 - where he goes for a value way higher than Moreno would have if he stayed in Denver.

12 Team Auction Keeper League - 0.5 per Reception (2013):
QB: Peyton Manning;
RBs: Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy
WRs: Demaryius Thomas (K), Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton (K)
TE: Vernon Davis; Flex: Kendall Wright
K: Blair Walsh; Def: St. Louis Rams
Bench: Jordan Reed, Riley Cooper, Steven Jackson
Michael Crabtree, DeAngelo Williams, Jordan Todman

12 Team Auction Keeper League - 0.5 per Reception (2014):
QB: Aaron Rodgers;
RBs: Eddie Lacy (K), DeMarco Murray
WRs: Demaryius Thomas (K), Keenan Allen (K), Mike Wallace
TE: Martellus Bennett; Flex: Rashad Jennings
K: Mason Crosby; Def: Detroit Lions

Bench: Steven Jackson, Zach Ertz, Andrew Hawkins, Brian Quick,
Andre Williams, Andre Holmes, Ben Roethlisberger, Malcolm Floyd


#17 SenatorSpaceman

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 03:13 PM

Man, people are relentlessly complaining about the "hype train" before the train station has even opened.

Anyway, I can't get behind any David Wilson comparisons. Besides being quick, Wilson had absolutely no attributes that should have made any owner believe that he'd be a successful starter.

I understand that the comparison was based more on their hype than their ability but Ball actually has the potential to end up as a solid RB1. Wilson's hype was absolutely unjustifiable.
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#18 joshua18

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 03:42 PM

The question here though is that how much more value can Ball bring to the broncos above what Moreno brought this year? It is not as if the use of RB1 to RB2 ratio will change all that much, so you can't just add up both Ball and moreno's stats from this year and say that is what he can bring next year. I could buy in to your rationale for Ball being drafted higher than moreno whould have been if he were to stay in Denver, but i cant really envision a scenario where Ball's statline is greater than moreno's this year. The Broncos offensive scheme just cant support a 1200+ runner, and 13 total TDs is already a huge sum - I just dont think hype alone would position Ball's expected draft value past what moreno's would have been because where is there room to grow/outperform?

I agree he will be overhyped, and i agree his value will surge as a result to something greater than where he should be taken. But this may be a better argument to understand in Auction than snake. I can see something similar to what happened this year with Lacy in my draft - where two people desperate to the last viable option for particular need drives a guys value to much higher than expected returns. fortunately this paid off for me this year where i got Lacy for $28, at the time a huge sum for him, but in hindsight made me look genius for getting a RB1 at half a RB1 value. This rationale would apply to someone who missed out on all the biggest names during the bidding process, and sees their choice for RB1 between a Ball and a borderline RB1 player. A bidding war between the two parties ensues, driving the bid from something modest for Ball, say $35-40 to something like $55. I can live with the first value, but over $50 would mirror some of your thoughts Munde53 - where he goes for a value way higher than Moreno would have if he stayed in Denver.


Moreno could only handle 15 carries/game. If Denver commits to Ball full-time (i.e. 20 carries/game + 3-4 receptions/game), the hype train could push Ball as high as the #5 RB drafted.

#19 CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 04:17 PM

After AP Charles Mccoy Lynch Forte its pretty wide open

Bell, Ball, Lacy , even Martin could all be that 6th overall RB. I won't draft Ball that high but it wouldnt shock me if he finished as a top 10 RB - maybe even top 5.

#20 joshua18

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 04:34 PM

After AP Charles Mccoy Lynch Forte its pretty wide open

Bell, Ball, Lacy , even Martin could all be that 6th overall RB. I won't draft Ball that high but it wouldnt shock me if he finished as a top 10 RB - maybe even top 5.


GIven Lynch's workload over the past 3 years, if Ball is the clear #1 in Denver I wouldn't be surprised to see him ranked ahead of Lynch in preseason.




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