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Ernesto Frieri 2014 Outlook


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#1 Sidearmer

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 11:18 PM

He's one of those mid round closers who could easily put up a top 10 season this year. Probably top 5 in strikeouts among RPs.

2010 - 2012 he was dominant. Last year he just served up a bunch of HRs but his other numbers were in line with his career. He definitely walks more than a closer should be he has done this his whole career and did great with it until last year.

Yahoo has him listed as the 19th closer (152 overall) on their top 250 list. At this value he's a viable sleeper candidate. Relief pitchers are volatile year to year and I highly doubt Frieri will throw up another 3.81 ERA season. If he can get it back down to 2.5 - 3.0 he will be a top closer. Should be good for 90+ K, and 35-40 SV, easily beating out his rankings (and ADP).

The main threat to his closer role will be Joe Smith. I personally don't view him as a big threat at all because he has the submariner bias against him. Frieri should have a decent leash to operate as a result.

He is just one of those guys that I think the market is completely wrong on right now.
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#2 bbythepier

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 11:42 PM

I'm a Frieri fan. I fondly remember the mammoth 2012 closer thread where I was either 1st or 2nd guy to hitch my wagon to Ernesto.

He does have that huge K rate, but his xFIP ~ 3.50 last 3 years. And his WHIP won't be elite. That miracle 200 BABIP in 2012 won't be repeated. So I think there's good reason why he's middle of the pack in closers, because of his expected ratios.

#3 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 11:43 PM

He's an example why the "closer rankings" are sht.

The rankings are based on what? WHIP? Total saves?.... ERA!?! LoLz.

Closer rankings should be based on SwStrk%, FStrk%, Velo, xFIP and, obviously, whether the guy is actually the closer on his team.

#4 bbythepier

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 11:50 PM

... and, obviously, whether the guy is actually the closer on his team.


Not to mention who's behind him like Sidearmer said. Frieri lost his job last year but LOLOLOL at the other options.


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#5 The Big Bat Theory

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 11:59 PM

He's an example why the "closer rankings" are sht.

The rankings are based on what? WHIP? Total saves?.... ERA!?! LoLz.

Closer rankings should be based on SwStrk%, FStrk%, Velo, xFIP and, obviously, whether the guy is actually the closer on his team.

In fantasy baseball I think the closer ranking in formats should be based on the basic 5 fantasy pitching stats as in Saves, ERA, WHIP and K's in most leagues. That's the bottom line. That's why we draft players. For stats and stats only.

Frieri's chief value is as a strikout monster. But sometimes his WHIP and ERA take a nose dive through stretches. Not enough to not want him on your team. But enough not to push him up to a Kimbrell level.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory, 01 February 2014 - 12:01 AM.


#6 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 12:31 AM


He's an example why the "closer rankings" are sht.

The rankings are based on what? WHIP? Total saves?.... ERA!?! LoLz.

Closer rankings should be based on SwStrk%, FStrk%, Velo, xFIP and, obviously, whether the guy is actually the closer on his team.

In fantasy baseball I think the closer ranking in formats should be based on the basic 5 fantasy pitching stats as in Saves, ERA, WHIP and K's in most leagues. That's the bottom line. That's why we draft players. For stats and stats only.

Frieri's chief value is as a strikout monster. But sometimes his WHIP and ERA take a nose dive through stretches. Not enough to not want him on your team. But enough not to push him up to a Kimbrell level.


But those stats are fickle. Look at the predictive stats.

For example, John Axford in 2011: 46 saves. 1.95 ERA. 10.51 K/9. Those three stats pumped up his value going into 2012. But a smart manager would have seen the mediocre--for a reliever--9.4% SwStrk% and known something was amiss. Then, he ends up tanking the next year and everyone sings the same old "never draft closers early" song. No. More like read between the lines. The writing was already on the wall.

Drafting based on ERA, saves, and Ks is stupid imho.
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#7 FouLLine

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 07:32 AM



He's an example why the "closer rankings" are sht.

The rankings are based on what? WHIP? Total saves?.... ERA!?! LoLz.

Closer rankings should be based on SwStrk%, FStrk%, Velo, xFIP and, obviously, whether the guy is actually the closer on his team.

In fantasy baseball I think the closer ranking in formats should be based on the basic 5 fantasy pitching stats as in Saves, ERA, WHIP and K's in most leagues. That's the bottom line. That's why we draft players. For stats and stats only.

Frieri's chief value is as a strikout monster. But sometimes his WHIP and ERA take a nose dive through stretches. Not enough to not want him on your team. But enough not to push him up to a Kimbrell level.


But those stats are fickle. Look at the predictive stats.

For example, John Axford in 2011: 46 saves. 1.95 ERA. 10.51 K/9. Those three stats pumped up his value going into 2012. But a smart manager would have seen the mediocre--for a reliever--9.4% SwStrk% and known something was amiss. Then, he ends up tanking the next year and everyone sings the same old "never draft closers early" song. No. More like read between the lines. The writing was already on the wall.

Drafting based on ERA, saves, and Ks is stupid imho.


SwStrk% is an awesome stat, but it needs to be understood for what it's worth.

First Strike % also is a bad stat to judge off of. So he throws first pitch strike, big deal now guys know to jump on it and in the 9th inning hitters have a good feel for the zone and they've been tracking baseballs all day so their batting eye is dialed in. As well as a hitters adrenaline is likely to be at a peak level at this point in the game. Which is why pitching in the 9th inning with the game on the line is so incredibly hard in the bigs.

Velo? Who cares. If a guy is getting strikeouts he is getting strikeouts regardless of his velocity. Again people were down on Cingrani last year because his "velocity wasn't overwhelming". There's other attributes to a fastball such as deception out of the hand/deliver, as well as movement, and most importantly a pitchers command of the fastball. Also let's not under emphasize a good catcher behind the plate who understands the scouting report of the hitter and sequencing. Because strikeouts are not all about the fastball, you need offspeed stuff to get guys out in the bigs.

What SwStr% should be used for is to see guys who may be looking at a boost in K/9 or even more importantly than K/9 K% as K/9 can be more "rewarding" to guys with less (bigger) WHIPs.

#8 Backdoor Slider

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 11:24 AM

Carlos Marmol 2.0
Lots of Ks, too many BBs, and prone to the 2/3 IP 5 ER type outings.
Valuable because he has the job, but clearly 15+ better. Probably ranked appropriately. Mid-level closer.
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#9 Sidearmer

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 11:33 AM

Carlos Marmol 2.0
Lots of Ks, too many BBs, and prone to the 2/3 IP 5 ER type outings.
Valuable because he has the job, but clearly 15+ better. Probably ranked appropriately. Mid-level closer.


Walk problems aren't nearly as bad as Marmol's.
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#10 Backdoor Slider

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 11:54 AM


Carlos Marmol 2.0
Lots of Ks, too many BBs, and prone to the 2/3 IP 5 ER type outings.
Valuable because he has the job, but clearly 15+ better. Probably ranked appropriately. Mid-level closer.


Walk problems aren't nearly as bad as Marmol's.


I should've clarified. I was referring to Marmol's good years. Even then, he was scary & prone to blow ups.
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#11 brockpapersizer

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 12:22 PM



Carlos Marmol 2.0
Lots of Ks, too many BBs, and prone to the 2/3 IP 5 ER type outings.
Valuable because he has the job, but clearly 15+ better. Probably ranked appropriately. Mid-level closer.


Walk problems aren't nearly as bad as Marmol's.


I should've clarified. I was referring to Marmol's good years. Even then, he was scary & prone to blow ups.


Marmol really only had 1 good closer year, and it was awesome.
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#12 Mithrandir

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 01:32 PM

Carlos Marmol 2.0
Lots of Ks, too many BBs, and prone to the 2/3 IP 5 ER type outings.
Valuable because he has the job, but clearly 15+ better. Probably ranked appropriately. Mid-level closer.


Frieri has had two pretty good seasons. While he is not a top tier reliever, he certainly is comparable to Marmol.
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#13 Sidearmer

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 01:39 PM


Carlos Marmol 2.0
Lots of Ks, too many BBs, and prone to the 2/3 IP 5 ER type outings.
Valuable because he has the job, but clearly 15+ better. Probably ranked appropriately. Mid-level closer.


Frieri has had two pretty good seasons. While he is not a top tier reliever, he certainly is comparable to Marmol.


He's had 3 good years and one bad in the MLB. I agree he's comparable, but he's not the same guy. All I'm saying here is that if Frieri can throw up a 3.2 ERA or something around there he will be extremely valuable. 90-100 K and 40 + SV from a below average RP would be amazing. I'm in the camp that ERA and WHIP don't matter too much for closers, only pitching 60-70 innings. But I do think the strikeouts are significant especially in a rotiserrie league.
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#14 2ndCitySox

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 03:55 PM



Carlos Marmol 2.0
Lots of Ks, too many BBs, and prone to the 2/3 IP 5 ER type outings.
Valuable because he has the job, but clearly 15+ better. Probably ranked appropriately. Mid-level closer.


Frieri has had two pretty good seasons. While he is not a top tier reliever, he certainly is comparable to Marmol.


He's had 3 good years and one bad in the MLB. I agree he's comparable, but he's not the same guy. All I'm saying here is that if Frieri can throw up a 3.2 ERA or something around there he will be extremely valuable. 90-100 K and 40 + SV from a below average RP would be amazing. I'm in the camp that ERA and WHIP don't matter too much for closers, only pitching 60-70 innings. But I do think the strikeouts are significant especially in a rotiserrie league.


The ERA and WHIP can hurt in H2H, but in roto, it's not as bad
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#15 FISH ON

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 04:23 PM

Unless I'm missing something, 60 saves with only 7 blown saves, a 2.76 career era, and 1.17 whip in 231+IP with a .191baa does not even come close to a Marmol comparison, not sure where these are coming from?
Glad someone in my dynasty thought along those lines last year when they dropped him after the scare from the talks of him being removed from the role.
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#16 countseth

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 07:03 PM

Angels field is supposed to be a big pitchers park and their offense has to perform eventually, right?

Maybe a lot of save opportunities and big park should help him have a shot at being a closer in the 8-12 range.

#17 bbythepier

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 07:16 PM

Angels field is supposed to be a big pitchers park and their offense has to perform eventually, right?

Maybe a lot of save opportunities and big park should help him have a shot at being a closer in the 8-12 range.


Well, if Rodney and Axford can be top 5 closer i suppose anyone can. It just seems like he's adequately slotted at the 15-18 closer. I want to give Sidearmer a fist bump and say yes he is undervalued, but I'm just not seeing it. He is, however, a top 8 closer to watch. Slings heat like i used to playing wiffle ball. Has about the same control, too.
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#18 Backdoor Slider

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 07:42 PM

Unless I'm missing something, 60 saves with only 7 blown saves, a 2.76 career era, and 1.17 whip in 231+IP with a .191baa does not even come close to a Marmol comparison, not sure where these are coming from?
Glad someone in my dynasty thought along those lines last year when they dropped him after the scare from the talks of him being removed from the role.


Watch him pitch. Walks, 3-2 counts, men on all the time. Lost job (twice?) last year.
I know, you just care about results. "He gets the job done." But what we're trying to do is be predictive about future results, and looking at number of saves and ERA are not great indicators.
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#19 FISH ON

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 09:07 PM


Unless I'm missing something, 60 saves with only 7 blown saves, a 2.76 career era, and 1.17 whip in 231+IP with a .191baa does not even come close to a Marmol comparison, not sure where these are coming from?
Glad someone in my dynasty thought along those lines last year when they dropped him after the scare from the talks of him being removed from the role.


Watch him pitch. Walks, 3-2 counts, men on all the time. Lost job (twice?) last year.
I know, you just care about results. "He gets the job done." But what we're trying to do is be predictive about future results, and looking at number of saves and ERA are not great indicators.


Well hell, are you telling me that resulting stats don't matter in fantasy sports? That getting the job done isn't what we're supposed to look for? Trying to be predictive of future results require past results, not crystal balls, not by consulting a seer, but actual past results, else it's a guessing game, and none of us are going to win that game. So here are some numbers from last year for Ernesto:

Carlos Marmol 2.0
Lots of Ks, too many BBs, and prone to the 2/3 IP 5 ER type outings.
Valuable because he has the job, but clearly 15+ better. Probably ranked appropriately. Mid-level closer.

Only 2 times did he give up 3 runs or more last year, to me, that does not mean "prone". He does walk his share, but he did only give up 4 bb's from Aug 1st to the end of the season as shown here in his game log: oh, and he did have 32 K's during that time.
http://sports.yahoo....s/8599/gamelog/

Again, my point is that in no way is Ernesto even close to Marmol when assessing his talent and value. He's a top 10 closer.
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#20 Bodhizefa

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 09:14 PM

He always makes things interesting, that's for sure. I'd love the man if he wasn't such a crazy flyball-heavy pitcher. But all those homers he gave up last year could portend a trend. He's a bit more volatile than you'd like because of the walks and the homers, so I think most people probably have him pegged about right. He's a good pitcher with some chinks in the armor -- a nice second closer on a fantasy team.
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