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Nelson Cruz 2014 Outlook


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#1 sasnumberonefan

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Posted 05 February 2014 - 04:21 PM

Looks like Mariners and Tigers could be destinations for him. For those of us who draft early, he could be had very cheap before he signs somewhere. I'm intrigued and I think he can put up good numbers off PED's as I believe he wasn't on them last year (but honestly, who knows). Worth a flier. Discuss.
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#2 ballfan4141

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Posted 05 February 2014 - 04:26 PM

lazy player who knew it was payday so did good.

#3 Bodhizefa

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Posted 05 February 2014 - 07:06 PM

Regardless of his productivity when he's on the field, he's never all that healthy. He reminds me a lot of Michael Morse, whom the M's were in love with last year until they saw how fragile he was. My guess is that they'll sign Cruz and realize things too late yet again. Oh, and their park is still crappy for right-handed power hitters, so expect a park related decline on top of any other decline he's about to experience (age, PED's, etc.)

I'm not much of a fan at all, and I'll gladly let the next guy take him, even if Cruz is "super cheap.' Too much risk for my blood.
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#4 Schwager

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 02:41 PM

I think anything past 14 team leagues he is a solid sleeper play. Maybe sleeper isn't the word but regardless where he ends up he can do well with his 400abs should hope he doesn't isn't out to to injury during playoff time though. In a roto with solid amount of DL I think this man is money.
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#5 StuPitt

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 02:54 PM

View Postsasnumberonefan, on 05 February 2014 - 04:21 PM, said:

Looks like Mariners and Tigers could be destinations for him. For those of us who draft early, he could be had very cheap before he signs somewhere. I'm intrigued and I think he can put up good numbers off PED's as I believe he wasn't on them last year (but honestly, who knows). Worth a flier. Discuss.

Where have you heard Cruz might be going to the Tigers?  While it makes sense, there has been no indication that the Tigers are even a tiny bit interested.
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#6 sasnumberonefan

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 03:38 PM

View PostStuPitt, on 06 February 2014 - 02:54 PM, said:

View Postsasnumberonefan, on 05 February 2014 - 04:21 PM, said:

Looks like Mariners and Tigers could be destinations for him. For those of us who draft early, he could be had very cheap before he signs somewhere. I'm intrigued and I think he can put up good numbers off PED's as I believe he wasn't on them last year (but honestly, who knows). Worth a flier. Discuss.

Where have you heard Cruz might be going to the Tigers?  While it makes sense, there has been no indication that the Tigers are even a tiny bit interested.

Sorry, I was just going off of speculation from the 2013 Nellie Cruz thread.
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#7 WahooManiac

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 11:00 AM

To the O's he goes, 1 yr 8m. I feel like thats a steal for Bal
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#8 Sidearmer

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 11:02 AM

A big steal at that price and years...don't know how other teams didn't offer more for one year.
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#9 baltimore_boy

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 11:06 AM

I wish it was a multi year deal, or at least an option for another 1 or 2 years. Other than that, I like the signing. The O's are having a strong end to the offseason. Cruz should be good this year likely hitting 5th in a very good O's lineup.
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#10 d_wag

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 11:10 AM

He should fire his agent, and kick himself in the butt - maybe next year more players will just take their qualifying offers and try again the following year.

Your play boras (ie drew and morales) - something tells me your ego won't allow you to admit you screwed up again and you'll continue to harm your clients if they're lucky enough to get offers like this at this stage

#11 Nygiantspm5

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 11:44 AM

As a mets fan it's great to know that we signed Chris young for $7.5 and Cruz went for $8...

Great signing for Baltimore, improves their lineup tremendously

#12 Bodhizefa

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 01:19 PM

View PostNygiantspm5, on 22 February 2014 - 11:44 AM, said:

As a mets fan it's great to know that we signed Chris young for $7.5 and Cruz went for $8...

Great signing for Baltimore, improves their lineup tremendously

Except Cruz sucks and has been a worse player in the last three years than Young (3.9 fWAR compared to 7.5 fWAR). Young is an infinitely better defender (and can also play center field) and also knows how to take a walk. The Mets made the right choice. Cruz is a s---y player overall, and it's possible the O's still overpaid for him even at only $8 million for one year (because they also lose a 2nd round draft choice, which has solid value as well).
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#13 Oriole Way

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 01:28 PM

View PostBodhizefa, on 22 February 2014 - 01:19 PM, said:

View PostNygiantspm5, on 22 February 2014 - 11:44 AM, said:

As a mets fan it's great to know that we signed Chris young for $7.5 and Cruz went for $8...

Great signing for Baltimore, improves their lineup tremendously

Except Cruz sucks and has been a worse player in the last three years than Young (3.9 fWAR compared to 7.5 fWAR). Young is an infinitely better defender (and can also play center field) and also knows how to take a walk. The Mets made the right choice. Cruz is a s---y player overall, and it's possible the O's still overpaid for him even at only $8 million for one year (because they also lose a 2nd round draft choice, which has solid value as well).

Yeah, but for a DH (which is where the Orioles will play him), Cruz is the better hitter.  And it's not about Young vs. Cruz.  Orioles needed to upgrade their DH.  They accomplished that.

I wanted Morales much more than Cruz.  But for $8 million, there's very little risk.  Orioles Park is a great ballpark for any power hitter, so there's lots of value in this signing.

#14 sasnumberonefan

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 01:32 PM

27 HRs in 409 ABs last year... I'll take a flier on him. Goes from one loaded lineup to another, should have plenty of RBI chances.
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#15 Patrick Bateman

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 01:51 PM

There's an old saying, "There are no bad 1 year contracts".  It's a solid signing by the O's to see if Cruz can add RH power to the lineup.  Cruz should have some real success with the short power alley in left-center at Camden.  At 33-34, he should still be able to play and although he's a bit fragile, 25+ power is scarce and generally always paid in the bigs.  For the O's to get him at such a value is the right play.

The risks are that he's been lousy as a DH throughout his career and he'll be battling the debated "DH penalty" phenomenon.  He'll play some corner OF though.  His OWar the last 3 years averaged out to be about a 2.0, while his defense brought his bWAR down (1.3).  So if he can handle being a DH, then the O's will have a nice signing....

As far as Cruz, personally, his agent totally overplayed his hand and cost he and his family a bunch of dough.....unless Cruz was adamant about his price.  Nellie's sort of good natured guy, so I can't see that being the case.
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#16 motown magic

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 05:44 PM

I agree with everything said by the last three posters said. Excellent signing. It could have incentives to make it more money.

#17 colepenhagen

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 06:01 PM

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#18 Bodhizefa

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 06:27 PM

View PostOriole Way, on 22 February 2014 - 01:28 PM, said:

View PostBodhizefa, on 22 February 2014 - 01:19 PM, said:

View PostNygiantspm5, on 22 February 2014 - 11:44 AM, said:

As a mets fan it's great to know that we signed Chris young for $7.5 and Cruz went for $8...

Great signing for Baltimore, improves their lineup tremendously

Except Cruz sucks and has been a worse player in the last three years than Young (3.9 fWAR compared to 7.5 fWAR). Young is an infinitely better defender (and can also play center field) and also knows how to take a walk. The Mets made the right choice. Cruz is a s---y player overall, and it's possible the O's still overpaid for him even at only $8 million for one year (because they also lose a 2nd round draft choice, which has solid value as well).

Yeah, but for a DH (which is where the Orioles will play him), Cruz is the better hitter.  And it's not about Young vs. Cruz.  Orioles needed to upgrade their DH.  They accomplished that.

I wanted Morales much more than Cruz.  But for $8 million, there's very little risk.  Orioles Park is a great ballpark for any power hitter, so there's lots of value in this signing.

If power is the only way you judge value, then you'd fit right in among the likes of Ruben Amaro and Jack Zduriencik as GM's. And you'd be losing every year, too.
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#19 ballfan4141

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 06:57 PM

see what he does without PEDs.

#20 Slatykamora

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 10:18 PM

View PostBodhizefa, on 22 February 2014 - 06:27 PM, said:

View PostOriole Way, on 22 February 2014 - 01:28 PM, said:

View PostBodhizefa, on 22 February 2014 - 01:19 PM, said:

View PostNygiantspm5, on 22 February 2014 - 11:44 AM, said:

As a mets fan it's great to know that we signed Chris young for $7.5 and Cruz went for $8...

Great signing for Baltimore, improves their lineup tremendously

Except Cruz sucks and has been a worse player in the last three years than Young (3.9 fWAR compared to 7.5 fWAR). Young is an infinitely better defender (and can also play center field) and also knows how to take a walk. The Mets made the right choice. Cruz is a s---y player overall, and it's possible the O's still overpaid for him even at only $8 million for one year (because they also lose a 2nd round draft choice, which has solid value as well).

Yeah, but for a DH (which is where the Orioles will play him), Cruz is the better hitter.  And it's not about Young vs. Cruz.  Orioles needed to upgrade their DH.  They accomplished that.

I wanted Morales much more than Cruz.  But for $8 million, there's very little risk.  Orioles Park is a great ballpark for any power hitter, so there's lots of value in this signing.

If power is the only way you judge value, then you'd fit right in among the likes of Ruben Amaro and Jack Zduriencik as GM's. And you'd be losing every year, too.

I'm not sure you get it. The Orioles had a .704 OPS from DH last year. Cruz's Worst offensive season in the last 6 years was .779 OPS. Every other year has been above .800 in that span.

Sure, it comes with risks because of the PED thing, and his Health, and maybe not being as motivated as a DH (he is career .784 OPS Hitter as a DH)

But its only 8 Mil. Which on this Market, is nothing.

Bottom line. He improves the Orioles chances in 2014.  Also he is saying their is great value in his power because Camden Yards Caters to power hitter. Not because power is the only way one judges.




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