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Wes Welker 2014 Season Outlook


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#1 cbe_88

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 12:43 AM

Welker obviously made a huge statement in 2013. The one thing that always bugged me about Welker is that he was never a "TD guy", but he sure bucked that trend on his new team. Not only being his usual slot maven self, he now has a serious redzone role drawn up by Peyton putting him in line for double digit Tds. He's an incredibly safe fantasy WR next year, with some capped upside in 2014, due to all of the options in Denver. But if Decker leaves you have to wonder how early that would make him go.

Generally I'm buying. A low-end WR1/high-end WR2 for the time being, and serious mid-range WR1 appeal if Decker moves on. I hope previous owners are still pissed that he burned them as he fizzled out, and then got knocked out of the last month with a concussion.

#2 OrangeCrush

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 09:04 AM

Not a definite that Welker is even back with Denver in 2014. They have a bunch of needs on the defensive side of the ball and Wes will count for 8 million against the cap. After watching my Broncos get WHIPPED by the Hawks, they really need to consider every option. I wouldn't be upset if they let him walk. He's not a spring chicken.


http://milehighmania...ver-wes-welker/

#3 WhatWouldDitkaDo

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 10:11 AM

Assuming that Welker stays in Denver, I'd have no problem drafting him. I see a slight uptick in targets with Decker's inevitable departure, and Welker is durable. He's missed fewer than ten games in his career, so that concussion isn't a huge concern. Even though Welker's getting older, I think he's still got another year or two in him. And even if he has less burst to gain separation from defenders, if there's anyone who can fit it into that window where only he can grab it, it's Peyton Manning.

Edited by WhatWouldDitkaDo, 10 February 2014 - 10:12 AM.

Team 1: Yo Soy Fiesta | 12-Team Dynasty PPR | 6-5 Record
QB: Aaron Rodgers

RB: LeSean McCoy, Rashad Jennings, Fred Jackson, Carlos Hyde
WR: Jordy Nelson, Jeremy Maclin, Andre Johnson, Brandon LaFell, Martavis Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Donte Moncrief
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce      K: Shayne Graham      D/ST: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins

 

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#4 cbe_88

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 07:11 PM

Not a definite that Welker is even back with Denver in 2014. They have a bunch of needs on the defensive side of the ball and Wes will count for 8 million against the cap. After watching my Broncos get WHIPPED by the Hawks, they really need to consider every option. I wouldn't be upset if they let him walk. He's not a spring chicken.


http://milehighmania...ver-wes-welker/


If they let Decker walk, I don't see them letting Welker walk as well. You're talking about bordering on "overhauling" one of the best offenses to ever step foot on a football field. Getting rid of multiple key pieces in what was an epic attack doesn't make sense to me. Okay if you don't want to pay Decker, I understand, keep welker. The only reason I see them parting ways with Welker is if they actually strike a deal with Decker in the event that he's not satisfied with his market in free agency and he comes back willing to lower his price.

#5 Gains

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 07:58 PM

lol at idiots thinking the broncos would let both welker and decker walk

welker will have another good season. Decker being gone helps.

only thing that worries me on the tds is that they were all at the start of the season..........and he became less involved red zone wise over time.

#6 OrangeCrush

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 06:15 AM

So where are we headed with Wes entering 2014? #3 WR in a Non-ppr league? Broncos lost Decker but add Sanders. Welker's 2H was less than exciting. Thoughts?

#7 PackersFan1979

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 07:28 AM

Welker was good value last year because you were typically landing him 5th round, sometimes 6th in std. He is going 4th round this year, which is fair value I think.

I kind of feel with Welker this year that he is a low ceiling, high floor player. So he is going to be a dependable WR2 most weeks at a WR2 price, but with some regression expected as Manning regresses a bit from last years record breaking performance.

In his current range I prefer:

Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Crabtree

PPR I would have him top 10 again this year.

#8 Dreams And Dwightmares

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 07:34 AM

So where are we headed with Wes entering 2014? #3 WR in a Non-ppr league? Broncos lost Decker but add Sanders. Welker's 2H was less than exciting. Thoughts?


2H?

Welker is still a very serviceable player, but I don't consider him before the 4th round in PPR or Standard in a 12 team league. I expect something like 90/1000/7 IFF he plays 16 games. In PPR this is a very solid WR2, but it's hard for me to envision 16 games.

When you get older, your body heals slower, that's unfortunately an aspect of getting old ( this is a blanket statement that isn't 100% true, but often is ). Welker is 5'9" and 33 years old running over the middle of the field with giants while having a concussion history. He's definitely got the heart of a lion, but the brain of a doctor is going to need to step in he suffers another one.
2014 represents the year I go back to back champion for the first time in my FF career.

#9 SenatorSpaceman

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 09:06 PM

I like Welker this year as a WR2 but I have some concerns. His 2013 numbers tapered off drastically as the season progressed.

He had 6 TDs in Weeks 1-4 and only 4 TDs after that. He had only one game with over 5 catches after Week 8. He averaged only 44.6 yards per game over his last five contests.

I expect most of Decker's targets to be eaten up by Manny Sanders so I wouldn't figure Welker's touches to see much of a boost in 2014.

With all of that said, he is a very talented and crafty player and he is playing for one of the greatest offenses ever so he's going to stay on my fantasy radar.

#10 ToO_BaD

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 10:28 AM

I like Welker this year as a WR2 but I have some concerns. His 2013 numbers tapered off drastically as the season progressed.

He had 6 TDs in Weeks 1-4 and only 4 TDs after that. He had only one game with over 5 catches after Week 8. He averaged only 44.6 yards per game over his last five contests.

I expect most of Decker's targets to be eaten up by Manny Sanders so I wouldn't figure Welker's touches to see much of a boost in 2014.

With all of that said, he is a very talented and crafty player and he is playing for one of the greatest offenses ever so he's going to stay on my fantasy radar.


When did the concussions occur? I also have Welker on my radar as he has been able to put up consistent seasons with the benefit of playing for two of the best QBs to play the game. You pretty much know what you're gonna get with Welker, and being the type of receiver he is I expect his role to be about the same as last year had Sanders been added or not. I would be fine with him as my WR2 in the 4th round.
RW Mock Draft Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, 6pt all TDs. 7-4, 2nd place.

QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Matt Forte, C.J. Anderson,
DeAngelo Williams
WR: T.Y. Hilton, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, Larry Fitzgerald, Allen Robinson
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#11 predator_05

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 12:35 PM

When you get older, your body heals slower, that's unfortunately an aspect of getting old ( this is a blanket statement that isn't 100% true, but often is ). Welker is 5'9" and 33 years old running over the middle of the field with giants while having a concussion history. He's definitely got the heart of a lion, but the brain of a doctor is going to need to step in he suffers another one.


That's a very lazy analysis.

Age means absolutely nothing when the player you're discussing keeps himself in shape and relies less on pure athleticism to make plays. The truth is that Welker's game hasn't changed one bit. His game was never predicated on above average speed or strength. He was [and continues to be] a great route runner with great footwork and lateral agility. He plays exactly the same way as he did when he was younger. He also gets less attention from opposing defenses as a Bronco than he ever did as a Patriot.
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#12 Dreams And Dwightmares

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 12:49 PM


When you get older, your body heals slower, that's unfortunately an aspect of getting old ( this is a blanket statement that isn't 100% true, but often is ). Welker is 5'9" and 33 years old running over the middle of the field with giants while having a concussion history. He's definitely got the heart of a lion, but the brain of a doctor is going to need to step in he suffers another one.


That's a very lazy analysis.

Age means absolutely nothing when the player you're discussing keeps himself in shape and relies less on pure athleticism to make plays. The truth is that Welker's game hasn't changed one bit. His game was never predicated on above average speed or strength. He was [and continues to be] a great route runner with great footwork and lateral agility. He plays exactly the same way as he did when he was younger. He also gets less attention from opposing defenses as a Bronco than he ever did as a Patriot.


I also believe it is lazy to read something incorrectly and sound off on it without reading over it twice. I did not mention any loss of above average speed, loss of athleticism, decline in route running, footwork, or lateral agility. I, in fact, believe he still possesses all of those things more than adequately to put up the numbers I quoted him on (very solid WR2 numbers IFF 15+ games occur).

That quote, if you read it without skimming, was in regards to the concussion history he has suffered from and the recovery time of concussions with someone who has a history of them. This doesn't even go into the fact that I wouldn't be shocked if he gets hammered over the middle sometime and misses a couple of games either.

To each their own though, if you don't believe he possesses any risk, I respect that and that is your right. I, personally, wouldn't be shocked if one more concussion causes him to retire at season's end.

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares, 04 June 2014 - 12:50 PM.

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#13 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 02:46 PM

This thread's been dead for almost 2 months. Anyone else think Welker may be undervalued this year? The loss of Decker should benefit Welker just as much as DT, especially in the red zone. I searched and can't find the stats to back up this claim but wasn't Manning to Welker incredibly effective in the red zone last season? A lot of Decker's red zone chances should go to Welker.

I know the concussion issues but this concern seems to be already baked into his ADP. Also, what would happen to Welker's stats if one of DT, Julius, or Sander were to get injured? Are the odds of Welker getting injured/concussed really higher than the combined probability of one of these other 3 receivers missing games?

Good guy to target as your WR2, especially in PPR leagues.

#14 mmrodri

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 03:02 PM

Concussions are a scary shade on his career outlook. I think he's got a bigger piece of the Bronco pie than Sanders, but less production than the Thomas twins.

As usual, he's a better bet in PPR, but he's another year older and eventually those hits he takes over the middle are going to start catching up with him. Around his ADP I prefer a few other WRs such as K. Allen, V. Cruz, A. Johnson, CPatt, and Roddy White, but they're arguably the riskier selections.

He could be undervalued, or he could be a cautionary tale about picking 33 year old slot receivers in the top 40 picks.

#15 TheToeStompers

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 03:22 PM

I'm starting to think age, hits, and his small size are adding up. His production dropped noticeably in the second half of last season, and I can't forget the Great Gazoo helmet his concussions forced him into. He looks like he's on the downslope of his career and I'm avoiding him at his WR2 price.

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#16 Mustangt125

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Posted 01 August 2014 - 04:03 PM

If I can get him in the 4th round I will. He's a good target in an explosive offense that scores tons of points.

He'll get his, esp as I play in .5 PPR

Edited by Mustangt125, 01 August 2014 - 04:03 PM.


#17 Ol Blues

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Posted 01 August 2014 - 04:47 PM

I'm starting to think age, hits, and his small size are adding up. His production dropped noticeably in the second half of last season, and I can't forget the Great Gazoo helmet his concussions forced him into. He looks like he's on the downslope of his career and I'm avoiding him at his WR2 price.

I agree. Many seem concerned that Sanders will be the "odd (receiver) out" with Manning. Welker seems more likely. He did not return well from injury at all in 2013.

#18 PackersFan1979

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Posted 01 August 2014 - 08:01 PM

This thread's been dead for almost 2 months. Anyone else think Welker may be undervalued this year? The loss of Decker should benefit Welker just as much as DT, especially in the red zone. I searched and can't find the stats to back up this claim but wasn't Manning to Welker incredibly effective in the red zone last season? A lot of Decker's red zone chances should go to Welker.

I know the concussion issues but this concern seems to be already baked into his ADP. Also, what would happen to Welker's stats if one of DT, Julius, or Sander were to get injured? Are the odds of Welker getting injured/concussed really higher than the combined probability of one of these other 3 receivers missing games?

Good guy to target as your WR2, especially in PPR leagues.


I cant believe how down on him people are. There are a few concerns sure, but no more than many of the guys at his current ADP on FCalc.

I have picked him up in two very competitive 12 man money leagues this week. I was floored when he fell to me in the early 6th round of both of them, one of which is a 2RB and 3WR 0.5 PPR league.

#19 ballfan4141

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Posted 01 August 2014 - 08:55 PM

a lot of WRs this year who "were good" but because they are older or didn't do great last year are cheap. welker, colston, wayne.

#20 SenatorSpaceman

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Posted 07 August 2014 - 07:08 PM

Anyone else think Welker may be undervalued this year? The loss of Decker should benefit Welker just as much as DT, especially in the red zone....A lot of Decker's red zone chances should go to Welker.


I think Welker is valued just about right this season. His ADP is 16th among WRs. I currently have him ranked 14th. However, I think you could be overstating the loss of Decker. I actually expect Sanders to inherit the majority of Decker's work.




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