Jump to content

Visit Rotoworld.comRotoworld Forums  
Rotoworld: MLB | NFL | NBA | NHL | NASCAR | CFB
Sports Talk Blogs: PFT | HBT | PBT | CFT | PHT
  Visit NBCSports.com

- - - - -

Toby Gerhart 2014 Season Outlook3/11/14 Signs with Jags


  • Please log in to reply
367 replies to this topic

#361 RotoRaysfan

RotoRaysfan

    All-Time Great

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,435 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Rotobronco

Posted 19 August 2014 - 09:06 AM

This thread is a great example of confirmation bias - people using the same information to draw the same conclusion they had before the new information is presented.   If you believe in Gerhart, his elusiveness rating, his YPC, his college success, and the volume opportunity all scream RB2.   If you don't believe in Gerhart, the fact he was used in mostly sub situations, his lack of breakaway speed, the struggles with JAX's O-line and likely rookie QB, stay away.

Gerhart's ADP shows how few locks there are at RB nowadays.   I think most everyone would agree he's not got a lot of mileage, so his age isn't really an obstacle - but conversely, his skill set isn't anywhere near elite.   In the end, I think the tiebreaker is opportunity - so many mediocre skill guys have had 1-2 year successful stints as lead back from pure volume opportunities.   I personally think JAX will start looking to groom a RB of the future as soon as next year's draft (they just had so many holes to fill this year, getting Gerhart at FA prices made more sense), so that Gerhart has a 2-3 year window of starter relevance in him (next year being a year where he has a rookie RB groomed to take over for 2016).   I would say no one has really stood out as a threat to him so far (including Storm Johnson).  

Low-ceiling, low-floor guy barring injury.   Problem with that assessment is a 3rd round ADP isn't worth it IMO.  4th-5th - in PPR, then it seems fair, even in standard leagues, where there's less appeal..   When you see such strong assessments on both extremes (stud vs. total bust), in general the truth always lies in between.   I think he'll end up a top 15 rb with health (uptick him in PPR) for 2014, but as soon as next year, wouldn't be surprised to see JAX to start planning for 2016+ in the draft.
TBD Baseball 2011 League Champion - 20 team, 7x7 (5x5 plus 2B+3B, BB, QS & Holds) Dynasty - Division winner, and squeaked through playoff finals!
AL-only 5x5, Roto - 2010 & 2011 league champion
RotoWood 2011 League Runner-Up - Mixed Roto regular season / H2H playoff 5x5 format - 3rd place reg. season, lost in finals

Been a blast everyone - take care, and remember to abide by the CoC, and to help your fellow community out - it's what's made the Forum community great!

P.S. My passion is primarily FBB - you'd LOL at my football track record!

#362 Mr.E

Mr.E

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 372 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 19 August 2014 - 09:23 AM

View PostRotoRaysfan, on 19 August 2014 - 09:06 AM, said:

This thread is a great example of confirmation bias - people using the same information to draw the same conclusion they had before the new information is presented.   If you believe in Gerhart, his elusiveness rating, his YPC, his college success, and the volume opportunity all scream RB2.   If you don't believe in Gerhart, the fact he was used in mostly sub situations, his lack of breakaway speed, the struggles with JAX's O-line and likely rookie QB, stay away.

Gerhart's ADP shows how few locks there are at RB nowadays.   I think most everyone would agree he's not got a lot of mileage, so his age isn't really an obstacle - but conversely, his skill set isn't anywhere near elite.   In the end, I think the tiebreaker is opportunity - so many mediocre skill guys have had 1-2 year successful stints as lead back from pure volume opportunities.   I personally think JAX will start looking to groom a RB of the future as soon as next year's draft (they just had so many holes to fill this year, getting Gerhart at FA prices made more sense), so that Gerhart has a 2-3 year window of starter relevance in him (next year being a year where he has a rookie RB groomed to take over for 2016).   I would say no one has really stood out as a threat to him so far (including Storm Johnson).  

Low-ceiling, low-floor guy barring injury.   Problem with that assessment is a 3rd round ADP isn't worth it IMO.  4th-5th - in PPR, then it seems fair, even in standard leagues, where there's less appeal.   When you see such strong assessments on both extremes (stud vs. total bust), in general the truth always lies in between.   I think he'll end up a top 15 rb with health (uptick him in PPR) for 2014, but as soon as next year, wouldn't be surprised to see JAX to start planning for 2016+ in the draft.

It depends on how you define ceiling. In real life yes he might not have the talent upside to be a franchise RB, however fantasy wise I argue that he actually has a high ceiling. I will not be surprised at all to see him put up high-end RB2 to mid-RB1 numbers, fantasy RB production usually correlates to opportunity and touches, Toby has both, while possessing at least above average talent.

Those guys that have the opportunity for RB1 production upside that you can get in the 4th round are precisely the type of guys I love to target when playing around with the 2 stud WR strategy.

#363 smeeze

smeeze

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,056 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 19 August 2014 - 11:27 AM

View PostDreams And Dwightmares, on 19 August 2014 - 08:53 AM, said:

When you change to a full time job where you no longer go to school, work part time jobs, go to frat parties, but instead become a trained machine that works out with the best athletic trainers and dietitians in the business everyday you generally tend to become Faster and Stronger.

27 years old isn't 60 as much as Doctor Matthew Berry and his crack team of Doctors like Nate Ravitz would lead you to believe.

I don't think it's crazy to believe he is stronger and faster today at 27 then he was at 22.

If someone can show me some tape from last season that provides some evidence of 4.5 speed, I'll be a little surprised.
12 Team / Standard Scoring / 3 Keepers

QB  
RB Zac Stacy
RB
WR Demaryius Thomas
WR Julio Jones
TE
FLEX
K
DST

#364 Dreams And Dwightmares

Dreams And Dwightmares

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 607 posts

Posted 19 August 2014 - 11:55 AM

View Postsmeeze, on 19 August 2014 - 11:27 AM, said:

If someone can show me some tape from last season that provides some evidence of 4.5 speed, I'll be a little surprised.

You can see pieces of it here.  Just understand that most DBs run sub 4.4s and generally have angles.

https://www.youtube....h?v=5IFSGIGp0-E
2014 represents the year I go back to back champion for the first time in my FF career.

#365 Peppered

Peppered

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 437 posts
  • Gender:Female

Posted 20 August 2014 - 10:58 AM

Is he worth a high 5th round pick. He makes me nervous but could be a very consistent player. I obviously dont see a high ceiling just looking for a steady number 2 RB.

#366 93_Confirmed

93_Confirmed

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 731 posts

Posted 20 August 2014 - 11:08 AM

I would take him in the 4th (PPR) just for the workload alone. There are so many RBBCs and messy backfield situations that you have to take harder looks at guys like Alfred, Toby, & Gore who have legit concerns but will likely produce as a steady RB2 due to the sheer volume of touches.

#367 mverkruyse

mverkruyse

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,001 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 20 August 2014 - 11:14 AM

View PostRotoRaysfan, on 19 August 2014 - 09:06 AM, said:

This thread is a great example of confirmation bias - people using the same information to draw the same conclusion they had before the new information is presented.   If you believe in Gerhart, his elusiveness rating, his YPC, his college success, and the volume opportunity all scream RB2.   If you don't believe in Gerhart, the fact he was used in mostly sub situations, his lack of breakaway speed, the struggles with JAX's O-line and likely rookie QB, stay away.

Gerhart's ADP shows how few locks there are at RB nowadays.   I think most everyone would agree he's not got a lot of mileage, so his age isn't really an obstacle - but conversely, his skill set isn't anywhere near elite.   In the end, I think the tiebreaker is opportunity - so many mediocre skill guys have had 1-2 year successful stints as lead back from pure volume opportunities.   I personally think JAX will start looking to groom a RB of the future as soon as next year's draft (they just had so many holes to fill this year, getting Gerhart at FA prices made more sense), so that Gerhart has a 2-3 year window of starter relevance in him (next year being a year where he has a rookie RB groomed to take over for 2016).   I would say no one has really stood out as a threat to him so far (including Storm Johnson).  

Low-ceiling, low-floor guy barring injury.   Problem with that assessment is a 3rd round ADP isn't worth it IMO.  4th-5th - in PPR, then it seems fair, even in standard leagues, where there's less appeal..   When you see such strong assessments on both extremes (stud vs. total bust), in general the truth always lies in between.   I think he'll end up a top 15 rb with health (uptick him in PPR) for 2014, but as soon as next year, wouldn't be surprised to see JAX to start planning for 2016+ in the draft.

I agree with everything here except I would consider him a low-ceiling, high-floor type of player. The sheer volume will keep him fantasy relevant, and with relatively little competition he should be in all (though admittedly there likely won't be many) goal-line situations. I would consider guys like Trent Richardson, Arian Foster, CJ Spiller low floor guys, because they have the potential to be totally worthless.

That being said there's no way I'm taking him in the early 3rd, he's much more palatable in auctions, where he seems to be falling in the mid-to-low $20 range.

#368 joey0480

joey0480

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,788 posts

Posted 20 August 2014 - 11:19 AM

Based on workload alone he should garner a low RB2 value.  Now, if JAX implements Bortles as QB part way through the season, and they get some game going through the air, I could see him having high RB2 value
14 man Dynasty

C - Miguel Montero
First - Rizzo
Second - Cano,
Third - Alvarez
Short - Starlin Castro
Second/Short - Dee Gordon
First/Third - Chris Davis
Left - Yelich
Right - Josh Reddick
CF - Trout
OF - Harper
OF - Billy Hamilton
Util - Marte
Bench -  Rougnod Odor, Joey Gallo,  Wil Myers (DL),  Alex Guerrero, Mookie Betts

SP - David Price, Johnny Cueto, Julio Teheran, Jeff Samardzija, Tim Lincecum, Ian Kennedy, Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Wood, Drew Hutchinson, Mat Latos, James Paxton, Marcus Stroman, Brett Anderson
RP - Jansen, Chapman, Cishek, Francisco Rodriguez, Neshek, Zach Duke




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users