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James Shields 2014 Outlook


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#1 Willsea33

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 09:08 PM

How does he not have a thread yet? Consistent as they come for a starter.

#2 dannyusf

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 09:48 PM

Wow no thread!? I got him as my SP2 this year. Last year I loved having Weaver, but injury were concerns. I feel much more comfortable pairing Shields up with my Darvish. Should see lots of Ks and innings and keep that low ERA. He will do what he does best. Just hope he can squeeze some additional wins. 15 Would be awesome!

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C: Posey 1B: Goldy!!! 2B: Pedroia 3B: Beltre SS: Boegarts OF: Marte, Jennings, Coco UTL: Napoli Bench: Bogaerts, Taveras, Willingham SP: Darvish, Shields, Price, Cobb, Wacha, Bailey, Peralta RP: Perkins, Britton, Mejia, Doolittle

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#3 SpecialFNK

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 10:17 PM

I don't remember where I was reading it, but some were predicting/projectiong a great season in his contract year.
be nice if he can get his K's back up to 2012 season.

#4 FearTheBeard

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 11:04 AM

I think Shields is in store for a monster year(in Shields terms).

Few things in underlying numbers show slight concern(only minor drops) - like K rate dropping, BB increases, SwStr% decreases, batted ball profile showing more loud contact, etc. But there's nothing significant - last year his ERA was rather fortunate given the underlying numbers, but Shields is also a guy that has had unfortunate ERA's indicated by underlying numbers.

I saw him Saturday in Surprise Vs a watered down Cubs lineup and he was absolutely electric. Regardless who he was facing, no one was gonna do anything. He FB worked from 92-96(and yes - mainly sat 94-95, very impressive for Shields who is a 91-93 guy), pinpoint command of everything, change was RIDICULOUS as always, cutter was filthy, curve was really tight with a nasty late break, great depth. Guy looked in great shape - I think Big Game James is looking for a Big Game Contract.

The dudes an absolute horse, I think his K's go back over 8 per 9IP, and BB go back under 2.4 per 9IP, tons of QS, and a gut feeling he'll have an outstanding year on the ratio front.

Edited by FearTheBeard, 19 March 2014 - 11:05 AM.


#5 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 10:08 AM

I'm very bullish on James Shields this year. He had some signs of decline last year; he threw less strikes, walked more hitters, generated less swing and misses, gave up his highest line drive rate since 2006 (rookie season) and had the 2nd lowest ground ball rate of his career (most of this was touched upon by FearTheBeard). He's also 32, has piled up a lot of innings over the past 7 years, and had a 4.37 ERA at home last year. So why would I still be bullish?

First I'll attack that home ERA. He essentially had one horrible September start at home vs Detroit (3.2 ip, 14 runs, 10 hits). His other 15 home starts he had a 3.66 era, so no cause for concern there. His highest ERA in any month was 3.45. He had a quality start 27 out of his 34 games. Remember how his k-rate was declining? Well as the season ended he actually got stronger. Last 8 starts (7 QS)- 54 ip, 59 k. Also only 12 walks in that time frame. Also, overall on the season he had a 2.80 ERA in his 33 other starts besides the blow up vs the Tigers. He was basically Cy-young worthy for most of the year. Also, while he is 32, pitchers have shown that they can still be very effective even in their mid thirties, and with his fastball velocity still showing as much life as ever, that isn't a concern at this point. While he's racked up a ton of innings, he has only thrown a slider or curve for 14.4% of his career pitches, so for the most part he's avoided the pitches that do the worst damange to your arm.

There is a reason that there is a very minimal amount of comments in this year. People just expect Shields to do his thing. Contract year or not, if he goes out for another 33 or so starts, he's probably looking at another excellent year.

#6 BrowKnees

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 12:20 PM

View PostRed Sox Nation, on 25 March 2014 - 10:08 AM, said:

I'm very bullish on James Shields this year. He had some signs of decline last year; he threw less strikes, walked more hitters, generated less swing and misses, gave up his highest line drive rate since 2006 (rookie season) and had the 2nd lowest ground ball rate of his career (most of this was touched upon by FearTheBeard). He's also 32, has piled up a lot of innings over the past 7 years, and had a 4.37 ERA at home last year. So why would I still be bullish?

First I'll attack that home ERA. He essentially had one horrible September start at home vs Detroit (3.2 ip, 14 runs, 10 hits). His other 15 home starts he had a 3.66 era, so no cause for concern there. His highest ERA in any month was 3.45. He had a quality start 27 out of his 34 games. Remember how his k-rate was declining? Well as the season ended he actually got stronger. Last 8 starts (7 QS)- 54 ip, 59 k. Also only 12 walks in that time frame. Also, overall on the season he had a 2.80 ERA in his 33 other starts besides the blow up vs the Tigers. He was basically Cy-young worthy for most of the year. Also, while he is 32, pitchers have shown that they can still be very effective even in their mid thirties, and with his fastball velocity still showing as much life as ever, that isn't a concern at this point. While he's racked up a ton of innings, he has only thrown a slider or curve for 14.4% of his career pitches, so for the most part he's avoided the pitches that do the worst damange to your arm.

There is a reason that there is a very minimal amount of comments in this year. People just expect Shields to do his thing. Contract year or not, if he goes out for another 33 or so starts, he's probably looking at another excellent year.
Note to self, avoid starting pitchers against the tigers
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#7 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 03:00 PM

View PostBrowKnees, on 25 March 2014 - 12:20 PM, said:

View PostRed Sox Nation, on 25 March 2014 - 10:08 AM, said:

I'm very bullish on James Shields this year. He had some signs of decline last year; he threw less strikes, walked more hitters, generated less swing and misses, gave up his highest line drive rate since 2006 (rookie season) and had the 2nd lowest ground ball rate of his career (most of this was touched upon by FearTheBeard). He's also 32, has piled up a lot of innings over the past 7 years, and had a 4.37 ERA at home last year. So why would I still be bullish?

First I'll attack that home ERA. He essentially had one horrible September start at home vs Detroit (3.2 ip, 14 runs, 10 hits). His other 15 home starts he had a 3.66 era, so no cause for concern there. His highest ERA in any month was 3.45. He had a quality start 27 out of his 34 games. Remember how his k-rate was declining? Well as the season ended he actually got stronger. Last 8 starts (7 QS)- 54 ip, 59 k. Also only 12 walks in that time frame. Also, overall on the season he had a 2.80 ERA in his 33 other starts besides the blow up vs the Tigers. He was basically Cy-young worthy for most of the year. Also, while he is 32, pitchers have shown that they can still be very effective even in their mid thirties, and with his fastball velocity still showing as much life as ever, that isn't a concern at this point. While he's racked up a ton of innings, he has only thrown a slider or curve for 14.4% of his career pitches, so for the most part he's avoided the pitches that do the worst damange to your arm.

There is a reason that there is a very minimal amount of comments in this year. People just expect Shields to do his thing. Contract year or not, if he goes out for another 33 or so starts, he's probably looking at another excellent year.
Note to self, avoid starting pitchers against the tigers

Haha well in theory for most pitchers yes, but your aces you should generally pitch vs whoever.

Shields had 5 starts vs Detroit last year. His 4 starts besides the blow up were all quality starts, and he only gave up 8 earned runs in 29 innings, which was good for a 2.48 era. This includes 15 innings, only 3 runs while pitching AT Detroit. He dominated in road games at Boston and Texas as well. Shields is a strong fantasy #2, and a real life ace. Non-benchable vs anyone imo.

#8 An Old Hippie

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 03:17 PM

I think Shields is one of the better sleeper type pitchers this year. You don't expect much with him pitching for KC but he put up very good numbers last year. He is just fairly consistent year to year it seems.

#9 det_tigers

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 02:44 PM

So many unearned runs!

#10 mcbane

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 03:05 PM

View Postdet_tigers, on 12 April 2014 - 02:44 PM, said:

So many unearned runs!

Much suck. Many balls. Very frustrate. So gas can. Wow.
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#11 SuperJoint

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 03:15 PM

Well and then there's the final kick to the groin when he was actually eligible for a QS but gets pulled at 5.2.

I know he had 115 pitches - I agree with the decision but it just figures in the context of this start.
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#12 Lishdaddy

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 03:26 PM

Guy got slammed in the first inning.  A home run and 3 hard hit ball outs.  2nd inning, he couldn't find the plate.  The ones that did, the batters blooped in or the defense (including an error on himself) was atrocious.  The only really hard hit ball was Mauers bomb.  The next 3 2/3 innings he settled down and turned in a pretty good outing considering.  I wouldn't sweat it.  he will be fine next start, just one of those games.
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#13 SpecialFNK

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 04:43 PM

according to rotoworld he was all over the place, and he gave up 6 hits. OMG no way, 6 hits! :o :rolleyes:

#14 bigbluecrew56

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 09:43 PM

BIG GAME JAMES!!!

#15 SuperJoint

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 09:49 PM

Honored to make the 15th post in this thread. Gem for the ages - as expected - registered @ HOU tonight.
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#16 CanadianSportsJunkie

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 09:24 PM

Quiet beast. Work horse. Underrated.
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#17 Zumayaaaa

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 09:26 PM

Just a stud. It seems like I get him as my SP3 every season.

#18 dannyusf

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Posted 27 April 2014 - 02:09 PM

Wow, if you got him as a SP3 then thats awesome! I think he is an excellent SP2!

I love you James Shields, we miss you here in Tampa Bay
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C: Posey 1B: Goldy!!! 2B: Pedroia 3B: Beltre SS: Boegarts OF: Marte, Jennings, Coco UTL: Napoli Bench: Bogaerts, Taveras, Willingham SP: Darvish, Shields, Price, Cobb, Wacha, Bailey, Peralta RP: Perkins, Britton, Mejia, Doolittle

If you have any questions you want to ask about your roster feel free to PM me.

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#19 Zumayaaaa

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 02:49 PM

Anyone else concerned with his start v the Rockies? Rockies bats been a top 10 unit on the road and now get to add a DH. Probably firing him out there but a little hesitant, his record in Interleague is none to stellar either.

#20 posty

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 02:54 PM

View PostZumayaaaa, on 13 May 2014 - 02:49 PM, said:

Anyone else concerned with his start v the Rockies? Rockies bats been a top 10 unit on the road and now get to add a DH. Probably firing him out there but a little hesitant, his record in Interleague is none to stellar either.

No...




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