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Justin Blackmon 2014 Season Outlook


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#1 buckeyestilidie

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Posted 21 March 2014 - 05:19 PM

After much discussion in the Jimmy Graham outlook thread it's got me thinking about sleeper WR's. I think if Blackmon could stay on the field with Shorts as the #2 he could be a serious under the radar guy who produces big time. I think having a competent RB in Gerhart helps keep D's somewhat honest. Much more can be said once we see who they draft, but until then what do you guys think if he can turn in a full sixteen game campaign?
* 4 straight superbowl appearances
* 2 super bowl victories

2014 Jeremy Top Dustan Bottoms
QB:Luck
RB:Lacy
RB:Bell
WR:Bryant
WR:Cobb
WR:Fitz
TE:Reed
K:Walsh
D:Cardinals
Flex:Ellington
Bench:Floyd, Decker, Vereen, Wayne, Cooper, Wright

#2 petekrum

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Posted 21 March 2014 - 06:10 PM

29 catches for 415 yards in 4 games last season. I love this guy's talent, it's just a matter if you trust him to obey the law.
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It is not cowardice. It is love of life.

#3 FFCollusion

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Posted 21 March 2014 - 06:47 PM

Not possible for him to be a sleeper.
He's simply a guy who has insane upside, but rock bottom downside.
We don't even know when(if) his suspension we be lifted.
But he can't qualify as a sleeper to me, simply risk/reward.
Gabbert is gone, so that's 50% of the battle.
I do it for the likes...

#4 ToO_BaD

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Posted 21 March 2014 - 07:01 PM

View PostFFCollusion, on 21 March 2014 - 06:47 PM, said:

Not possible for him to be a sleeper.
He's simply a guy who has insane upside, but rock bottom downside.
We don't even know when(if) his suspension we be lifted.
But he can't qualify as a sleeper to me, simply risk/reward.
Gabbert is gone, so that's 50% of the battle.

I agree with this.  He isn't a sleeper because people have seen what he can do and know he can produce WR1 numbers when on the field.  If anything, he could possibly be had for a good value.  People could shy away from him due to his unknown status and inability to follow the rules.  Won't be a sleeper, but could have some value.
RW Mock Draft Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, 6pt all TDs

QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Matt Forte, Trent Richardson​​,
DeAngelo Williams, Stepfan Taylor, Shaun Draughn
WR: Pierre Garçon, Larry Fitzgerald, Kelvin Benjamin, Allen Robinson
W/R/T: T.Y. Hilton, Mike Evans
TE: Vernon Davis,
Antonio Gates
DEF: Denver D/ST
K: Stephen Gostkowski


Any Given Pick League (Friends): 11-team, Running point total, 10pt all TDs, 10 point bonus at 100 yds rush/rec or 300 yards passing, Can keep up to three players drafted 9th round or later for 4 years after draft (* = keepers prior to draft)

QB: Nick Foles
RB: Eddie Lacy, Arian Foster, Lamar Miller, Fred Jackson*, Terrance West
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones*, Cordarelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Josh Gordon*
Flex: Percy Harvin
TE: Kyle Rudolph
DEF: Cincy D/ST
K: Crosby

#5 FFCollusion

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Posted 21 March 2014 - 07:09 PM

I'll have no issue drafting him.  Even if he's slated to start week 1, I doubt people will be drafting him higher than a flex.  If I could grab him as my first bench WR, I'd take it.
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#6 munde53

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Posted 21 March 2014 - 07:34 PM

I can't remember who said it, but I think it sums up Blackmon.

Top 10 upside, with kicked out of the NFL downside.
10 Team
QB: M Ryan, T Romo
RB: Z Stacy, A Ellington, J Bell, B Tate, T West, B Cunningham
WR: Megatron, K Allen, R White, K Wright, R Wayne
TE: J Reed, L Green
K: M Bryant
Def: New England

#7 buckeyestilidie

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Posted 21 March 2014 - 09:39 PM

I didn't mean to label him a sleeper I was just thinking of guys who can outpreform their ADP and Blackmon rings top of my list. I think he could have a Gordon type of year. I don't think he'd be number one in fantasy for WR's, but I think like Munde said in the top ten for the price of a guy in the seventh.
* 4 straight superbowl appearances
* 2 super bowl victories

2014 Jeremy Top Dustan Bottoms
QB:Luck
RB:Lacy
RB:Bell
WR:Bryant
WR:Cobb
WR:Fitz
TE:Reed
K:Walsh
D:Cardinals
Flex:Ellington
Bench:Floyd, Decker, Vereen, Wayne, Cooper, Wright

#8 Rob_P

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Posted 22 March 2014 - 07:16 AM

View Postmunde53, on 21 March 2014 - 07:34 PM, said:

I can't remember who said it, but I think it sums up Blackmon.

Top 10 upside, with kicked out of the NFL downside.

That was my quote.  Really does sum him up which makes him very unique.  I have heard predictions he will be back week 5, week 9 and 2015.  So no idea how to value him in drafts.  I own him in a dynasty league, I will hold on to him and hope he is back soon.  If he ever puts it together, I do think the Josh Gordon comparisons could be accurate as far as breakout potential.

#9 GreatScott!

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Posted 23 March 2014 - 06:57 AM

View PostRob_P, on 22 March 2014 - 07:16 AM, said:

View Postmunde53, on 21 March 2014 - 07:34 PM, said:

I can't remember who said it, but I think it sums up Blackmon.

Top 10 upside, with kicked out of the NFL downside.

That was my quote.  Really does sum him up which makes him very unique.  I have heard predictions he will be back week 5, week 9 and 2015.  So no idea how to value him in drafts.  I own him in a dynasty league, I will hold on to him and hope he is back soon.  If he ever puts it together, I do think the Josh Gordon comparisons could be accurate as far as breakout potential.

Yep.  This does indeed sum him up.  His value won't really be known until we all know what his suspension indeed is.  If he does play next season, he's a guy I would target and keep on my bench.  But I wouldn't look at him until after round 10 with his downside of "kicked out of the NFL".   I got him last year in round 13 I believe.
Dynasty 12 Team PPR League. 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, D/ST, K
QB - Matt Ryan
QB - Blake Bortles
RB - Alfred Morris
RB - Zac Stacy
RB - Joquie Bell
RB - Bernard Pierce
RB - Ahmad Bradshaw
RB - Benny Cunningham
RB - James White
WR - Calvin Johnson
WR - Larry Fitzgerald
WR - Torrey Smith
TE - Jason Witten
K - Adam Vinateri
D/ST - Houston

#10 Ol Blues

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 09:17 AM

In 2013 I drafted Blackmon in 1 league at roughly pick 120 or so and in an auction league landed him late at $2. While neither turned into a screaming value, I did get some better than solid starts out of him before his final suspension. My hunch, assuming he's back, is that his price will be highly unpredictable in 2014 drafts because the Jags are an improving team, we saw glimpses of what Blackmon can become and Shorts' limitations were fully exposed in 2013, all of which may encourage the risk takers among your league mates to draft Blackmon before they should. But if I can get him for a price close to last season's he's worth the (extremely high) risk.

#11 GPWMC

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 07:18 PM

Discussing his value seems rather fruitless at this time until we hear a verdict on his indefinite suspension, but my guess is that if he were slated to miss any less than 3 games, you would have to take him in the 4th/5th of 12-man league. There's too many owners still with the taste of Josh Gordon's success in their mouths for someone not to jump on him. If he gets pushed out to 4-6 games, he'll probably drop to the 8th/9th. If it remains indefinite by the time you draft, his ADP should be 10+, but every league is different and there are plenty of gamblers out there who might take a swing before then.

#12 lolcopter

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 10:13 PM

View PostGPWMC, on 07 April 2014 - 07:18 PM, said:

There's too many owners still with the taste of Josh Gordon's success in their mouths for someone not to jump on him.

phrasing?
12 team standard
QB -- Matt Ryan
RB -- Adrian Peterson, Andre Ellington
WR -- Julio Jones, Randall Cobb
Flex -- Cordarrelle Patterson
TE -- Dennis Pitta
D/ST -- St. Louis
K -- Robbie Gould
Bench -- Michael Floyd, Terrance West, Mark Ingram, Andre Williams, Benny Cunningham, Tony Romo, Heath Miller

#13 Gains

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Posted 10 April 2014 - 10:09 PM

View Postlolcopter, on 08 April 2014 - 10:13 PM, said:

View PostGPWMC, on 07 April 2014 - 07:18 PM, said:

There's too many owners still with the taste of Josh Gordon's success in their mouths for someone not to jump on him.

phrasing?

Phrasing is not that bad, I am sort of disturbed the 1st thing you thought of was The taste of Gordon's Ditka though

#14 GPWMC

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 08:32 AM

View Postlolcopter, on 08 April 2014 - 10:13 PM, said:

View PostGPWMC, on 07 April 2014 - 07:18 PM, said:

There's too many owners still with the taste of Josh Gordon's success in their mouths for someone not to jump on him.

phrasing?

Hahahahahah little freudian slip there boys. Didn't even think twice, sorry for any disturbing thoughts that resulted.

#15 Gains

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Posted 01 May 2014 - 04:11 PM

So when we do actually find out how long/if he is suspended?

When will he be reinstated

If he is still not reinstated will he even be drafted?
Blackmon for my last pick? Yes please

Edited by Gains, 01 May 2014 - 04:12 PM.


#16 JahNatrulz

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 07:38 AM

Let me talk what I like to call "real spit" meaning the reality of the situation is that, This guy has the talent and abilty to be the best, better than Megatron, because I feel hes a bit more craftier, but not better, but because Megatron will forever be double and triple teamed, Blackmon has a chance to dethrone Gordon and Megatron, but to me he Just doesnt want it bad enough.  When I look at him, he doesnt care about football.  Ok you smoke in the offseason and probably before every game, but you know your going to be tested and suspended, Do you hide it better? or act like its not a problem your out 4 games every year... That to me is a problem, I can see him with 100 yards each game, but He doesnt care, and when people dont care I dont care about them, because they're an accident or issue away from destroying my team... He can be my WR5, someone I can drop and pickup at my leisure.

QB1   M. Stafford -> N. Foles
QB(B)   R. Fitzpatrick -> R. Wilson   
WR1   A. Green -> A. Brown   
WR2 A. Brown -> J. Nelson   
WR3   K. Allen -> Mi. Floyd   
WR(B)  R. White -> Ja. Jones, M. Lee                                              
RB1   K. Moreno -> E. Lacy
RB2   L. McCoy -> F. Gore
RB(B)   L. Bell, D. Brown -> J. Stewart, A. Bradsahw                                                        
FLEX    Z. Stacy -> F. Jackson
TE1    D. Walker -> K. Rudolph   
TE(B) D. Pitta -> L. Green   
K   S. Hauschka -> M. Crosby   
D/ST.   Buffalo -> Cincinatti
"Trying to become Fantasy Dynasty"
2012 & 2013 CHAMPION-> 2014 Begins   

#17 JahNatrulz

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 07:49 AM

What if they get Sammy Watkins and cut bait with all this nonsense every year, Let blackmon go to the patriots where Bill B can work on his next problem receiver.  He loves this player-project mentality instead of drafting or trading for a good WR

QB1   M. Stafford -> N. Foles
QB(B)   R. Fitzpatrick -> R. Wilson   
WR1   A. Green -> A. Brown   
WR2 A. Brown -> J. Nelson   
WR3   K. Allen -> Mi. Floyd   
WR(B)  R. White -> Ja. Jones, M. Lee                                              
RB1   K. Moreno -> E. Lacy
RB2   L. McCoy -> F. Gore
RB(B)   L. Bell, D. Brown -> J. Stewart, A. Bradsahw                                                        
FLEX    Z. Stacy -> F. Jackson
TE1    D. Walker -> K. Rudolph   
TE(B) D. Pitta -> L. Green   
K   S. Hauschka -> M. Crosby   
D/ST.   Buffalo -> Cincinatti
"Trying to become Fantasy Dynasty"
2012 & 2013 CHAMPION-> 2014 Begins   

#18 Gains

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 09:57 AM

Slow your roll bro. MegAtron and Gordon tier is a little harder to reach then your stating

#19 GottaGetTheWin

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 12:23 PM

According to his own team his 2014 Season Outlook is nothing.
Team 1: 12 Team Keeper 1pt PPR. 5 per TD. 1 per 20 passing

QB: Cutler,Big Ben
RB: Gerhart, Sankey, B.Pierce, Terrance West, James White, Chris Polk
WR:Calvin, AJ Green, Julio(Flex), M. Floyd(Flex), J. Hunter, D. Baldwin
TE: Kyle Rudolph

#20 Dreams And Dwightmares

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:52 PM

He's a hot waiver add sometime during the season to whoever sees the news first at this point.  But until he can get cleared to play and that clearance happens before you do your draft, then I think it might just be a wasted pick.  The talent is there, the judgement and ability to be on the football field is not at this time.
2014 represents the year I go back to back champion for the first time in my FF career.




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