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Maurice Jones-Drew 2014 Outlook3.28.14 -- Going home to Cali


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#1 Patrick Bateman

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Posted 28 March 2014 - 02:07 PM

He's a Raida......

Adam SchefterVerified account@AdamSchefter
RB Maurice Jones-Drew officially is an Oakland Raider, signing a 3-year deal with the team. Jones-Drew is going home.
"Give me a break, I'm a product of divorce!"

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#2 Al.Davis

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Posted 28 March 2014 - 06:14 PM

Does anybody really think that MJD is better than a healthy Run DMC?

I know 'healthy' is the big word in that sentence but early reports have MJD starting for Oaktown.

Really???

#3 Proteus

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Posted 28 March 2014 - 07:54 PM

View PostAl.Davis, on 28 March 2014 - 06:14 PM, said:

Does anybody really think that MJD is better than a healthy Run DMC?

I know 'healthy' is the big word in that sentence but early reports have MJD starting for Oaktown.

Really???

I can see it in theory:

Let MJD do the grinding between the tackles and have McFadden come in with the big fresh burst to do some damage in space.

It's kind of like the Cincy model with better, albeit aged and damaged weapons.
QB: Ryan Leaf
RB: Lawrence Phillips
RB: Ki-Jana Carter
WR: Charles Rogers
WR: Desmond Howard
TE: David LaFleur
W/R: David Wilson
K: Ray Finkle(Einhorn)
D: Minnie

BN: Andre Ware/Jared Cook/Tony Mandarich/Curtis Enis/Travis Henry/Brian Bosworth/CJ Spiller/Trent Richardson

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#4 owenmills

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Posted 28 March 2014 - 08:35 PM

Why do people still think McFadden is good. I'll take a decrepit old MJD over him

#5 cbe_88

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Posted 28 March 2014 - 08:46 PM

Welp, DMC is an incredibly risky and non-worthy investment in my eyes...but he's always been that for me. Whereas MJD I see as a low-end RB3 that isn't much to get excited about heading into 2014. I'll take MJD at the right price if it were possible to have him as a bench play. Honestly, I'd feel nervous even trying to shoe MJD in as my flex out the gate, but he has a shot at some nice value at least. I don't think MJD is finished, but I also don't know if Oakland is the place where a resurgence is even possible.

#6 FFCollusion

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Posted 28 March 2014 - 08:48 PM

View Postowenmills, on 28 March 2014 - 08:35 PM, said:

Why do people still think McFadden is good. I'll take a decrepit old MJD over him
Even in 2013, (PPR scoring, where DMC is far more valuable) DMC averaged 17.1 PPG in games where he was given at least 19 touches.  In the 6 other games he's shown playing, he averaged 4.5 PPG, but also only averaged 7 touches through those 6 games.

MJD as an early down back, with DMC as the change of pace, passing down back, (potentially even a satellite back?) might not be ideal for us fantasy owners, but as far as real football goes, makes perfect sense for the Raiders.
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#7 GPWMC

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Posted 28 March 2014 - 10:08 PM

This kinda strikes a blow to my Latavius Murray darkhorse bet

#8 Bluecore

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Posted 28 March 2014 - 10:51 PM

When DMC gets injured I think he will be a fine 3-down back and it will give Latavius a chance to be a change of pace break out candidate for 2015. Until then, if they use them correct it will be DMC as a third down back and maybe on some drives have MJD play all 3 downs and just use DMC as a change of pace. There won't be any real good fantasy value here while DMC is healthy, which is why I am going to target MJD in like the 7th-8th and sit on him while I wait for DMC to get injured.

Also, I think it was a great move for the team. If they sign DJax there can be some seriously fun and interesting stuff going on in Oakland this year if they draft a QB or if Schaub has a decent season.
2013 Week 16 Championship roster:
QB: Nick Foles
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Josh Gordon, Eric Decker
RB: LeSean McCoy, Rashad Jennings
TE: Delanie Walker
Flex: Kendall Wright
Kicker: S. Hauschka
Def: KC

#9 owenmills

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Posted 29 March 2014 - 05:54 AM

View PostFFCollusion, on 28 March 2014 - 08:48 PM, said:

View Postowenmills, on 28 March 2014 - 08:35 PM, said:

Why do people still think McFadden is good. I'll take a decrepit old MJD over him
Even in 2013, (PPR scoring, where DMC is far more valuable) DMC averaged 17.1 PPG in games where he was given at least 19 touches.  In the 6 other games he's shown playing, he averaged 4.5 PPG, but also only averaged 7 touches through those 6 games.

MJD as an early down back, with DMC as the change of pace, passing down back, (potentially even a satellite back?) might not be ideal for us fantasy owners, but as far as real football goes, makes perfect sense for the Raiders.

You don't have to be that good to score 17 pts if you're getting over 20 carries, especially in ppr which inflates points. See Trent Richardson. I think people overrate him. It's usually irrelevant because he's hurt.

#10 FFCollusion

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Posted 29 March 2014 - 01:08 PM

View Postowenmills, on 29 March 2014 - 05:54 AM, said:

View PostFFCollusion, on 28 March 2014 - 08:48 PM, said:

View Postowenmills, on 28 March 2014 - 08:35 PM, said:

Why do people still think McFadden is good. I'll take a decrepit old MJD over him
Even in 2013, (PPR scoring, where DMC is far more valuable) DMC averaged 17.1 PPG in games where he was given at least 19 touches.  In the 6 other games he's shown playing, he averaged 4.5 PPG, but also only averaged 7 touches through those 6 games.

MJD as an early down back, with DMC as the change of pace, passing down back, (potentially even a satellite back?) might not be ideal for us fantasy owners, but as far as real football goes, makes perfect sense for the Raiders.

You don't have to be that good to score 17 pts if you're getting over 20 carries, especially in ppr which inflates points. See Trent Richardson. I think people overrate him. It's usually irrelevant because he's hurt.
Only 10 backs averaged 17 PPG last year.  Only 7 did it in 2012, 11 in 2011, and 10 in 2010.

So... I'm inclined to disagree with you.  Also, don't confuse 'carries' with 'touches'.

I used 19 as a baseline for DMC because I didn't want to be accused of manipulating stats.  Technically, the following statement is true:

For 2013, in games where DMC received over 12 touches a game, he averaged 17 points per game in PPR formats.
Twelve.

I just thought 19 was a more reasonable number, due to the low pool of data, and largely in part because of the gap between his touch totals in good/bad games.  For 2013 DMC either had 12 or less touches (his bad games) or 19+ touches (his good games) there wasn't a single game last year where he was given between 12-19 touches.  

Having said all that, I agree, it's never really mattered because he can't stay healthy.
But at the same time, because of his health he can be drafted as a bench player year in and year out, who is very capable of performing like an RB1 'when healthy'.  Meaning you draft him under the assumption he's a nice flex player for 4-8 weeks a year.  After his injury, you just cut bait.
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#11 Gains

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Posted 29 March 2014 - 01:52 PM

I would have perfered MJD to stay in Jacksonville from a fantasy standpoint.

not trusting oakland as much. DMC will eat away at his value, at least until he stains his back for 3 months from bending over to tie his shoes.

#12 FFCollusion

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Posted 29 March 2014 - 02:18 PM

View PostGains, on 29 March 2014 - 01:52 PM, said:

I would have perfered MJD to stay in Jacksonville from a fantasy standpoint.

not trusting oakland as much. DMC will eat away at his value, at least until he stains his back for 3 months from bending over to tie his shoes.

I'm not arguing either way yet, just gunna throw some numbers out and see what they look like.
Last year Oaklands RB's combined for:
329 Carries, 1,353 yards, 13 TDs
87 catches, 786 yards, 2 TDs

On what was a rather abysmal team.
(Pryor ran for another 82/580 but I'll leave those off for now, but keep in mind nonetheless)

Even if we look at a direct split between "MJDMC" we get:
165/675/6 + 43/390/1

For a total of 1,065 yards 7 TDs each, or 148.5 points
Last year that was good for 20th in RB points.

If you want to give them an inflation of X% for improved QB/WR play (especially if they get D.Jax too)
Then increase the Raiders rushing attempts by Y% because you logically assume MJDMC will dictate a larger commitment to the run game than Jennings/Reece did, it would make sense, but I'll stick to bare minimums for the time being.

So, perhaps you don't believe the 50/50 split.  Perhaps its more likely to be an inverse 70/30.
*Meaning MoJo gets 70% of the carries but only 30% of the catches, and the reverse for DMC 30% carries, 70% catches...

MoJo would have 230 attempts, 947 yards, 5TD
26 receptions, 235 yards
for 148 points... :lol:

So it looks like no matter how you slice it, you could expect high end RB3 or flex value from an RB likely to be drafted in the... 6th to 9th rounds?  There's value in that, even more so when you consider that when one gets hurt, the others' value will rise dramatically, and even further if you consider an inflation in attempts do to team talent, sustained drives, WR threats to stretch the field, more trips to the red zone, etc and so forth.
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#13 ToO_BaD

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 11:53 AM

View PostFFCollusion, on 29 March 2014 - 01:08 PM, said:

View Postowenmills, on 29 March 2014 - 05:54 AM, said:

View PostFFCollusion, on 28 March 2014 - 08:48 PM, said:

View Postowenmills, on 28 March 2014 - 08:35 PM, said:

Why do people still think McFadden is good. I'll take a decrepit old MJD over him
Even in 2013, (PPR scoring, where DMC is far more valuable) DMC averaged 17.1 PPG in games where he was given at least 19 touches.  In the 6 other games he's shown playing, he averaged 4.5 PPG, but also only averaged 7 touches through those 6 games.

MJD as an early down back, with DMC as the change of pace, passing down back, (potentially even a satellite back?) might not be ideal for us fantasy owners, but as far as real football goes, makes perfect sense for the Raiders.

You don't have to be that good to score 17 pts if you're getting over 20 carries, especially in ppr which inflates points. See Trent Richardson. I think people overrate him. It's usually irrelevant because he's hurt.
Only 10 backs averaged 17 PPG last year.  Only 7 did it in 2012, 11 in 2011, and 10 in 2010.

So... I'm inclined to disagree with you.  Also, don't confuse 'carries' with 'touches'.

I used 19 as a baseline for DMC because I didn't want to be accused of manipulating stats.  Technically, the following statement is true:

For 2013, in games where DMC received over 12 touches a game, he averaged 17 points per game in PPR formats.
Twelve.

I just thought 19 was a more reasonable number, due to the low pool of data, and largely in part because of the gap between his touch totals in good/bad games.  For 2013 DMC either had 12 or less touches (his bad games) or 19+ touches (his good games) there wasn't a single game last year where he was given between 12-19 touches.  

Having said all that, I agree, it's never really mattered because he can't stay healthy.
But at the same time, because of his health he can be drafted as a bench player year in and year out, who is very capable of performing like an RB1 'when healthy'.  Meaning you draft him under the assumption he's a nice flex player for 4-8 weeks a year.  After his injury, you just cut bait.

Are the number of RBs you included who averaged 17 a game in PPR also backs who got 12+ carries?  Or just backs that averaged 17 a game?
RW Mock Draft Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, 6pt all TDs

QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Matt Forte
RB: Trent Richardson
WR: Pierre Garçon
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
W/R/T: T.Y. Hilton
W/R/T: Mike Evans
TE: Vernon Davis
DEF: Denver D/ST
K: Stephen Gostkowski

Bench:
DeAngelo Williams, Stepfan Taylor, Marvin Jones, Kelvin Benjamin, Allen Robinson, Antonio Gates

#14 FFCollusion

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 12:40 PM

I just sorted fftoday stats by PPG and checked each year.
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#15 ToO_BaD

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 01:11 PM

View PostFFCollusion, on 31 March 2014 - 12:40 PM, said:

I just sorted fftoday stats by PPG and checked each year.

Okay because technically you said that when given 12+ touches last season DMC averaged 17 points in PPR.  Mills then said it is easy to do with 19 carries (touches whatever and yes 19 ended up being an arbitrary number).  So I was just curious if you only used the 10 guys who averaged 17 a game, or actually looked at all runners stats in games where they had 12+ touches because it could then possibly be higher than 10.
RW Mock Draft Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, 6pt all TDs

QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Matt Forte
RB: Trent Richardson
WR: Pierre Garçon
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
W/R/T: T.Y. Hilton
W/R/T: Mike Evans
TE: Vernon Davis
DEF: Denver D/ST
K: Stephen Gostkowski

Bench:
DeAngelo Williams, Stepfan Taylor, Marvin Jones, Kelvin Benjamin, Allen Robinson, Antonio Gates

#16 FFCollusion

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 03:00 PM

I didn't dissect each runners touches for the last 4 years, that's a bit excessive for the point I was attempting to create. (Mainly that 17 PPG is nothing to scoff at)
I know DMC has considerable downside, but nearly every year that's accurately taken into account in his draft day cost.  So from there all we have left is his remaining upside value.  I simply disagree with people who like to pretend DMC is garbage 100% of the time.

Inb4 "okay 99%"
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#17 owenmills

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 03:38 PM

DMC's sample size was so small last year. There were 5 games he had 12 or more carries. 3 of them he averaged 3.3 yds per carry or less. Any RB can put up decent points if he's fed the ball relentlessly. You only have to go back to DMC in 2012 to see that. He sucked that year in terms of effectiveness, but he was actually a decent RB2 when he wasn't hurt because of volume of touches. He's a slightly above average talent at best and is made of glass. Sure you'll get him for fairly cheap, but he's only going to be useful if he's getting a lot of touches and in that case it's inevitable he's not going to play many games.

I'm not trying to tell anyone not to draft him at the right price(better be cheap). But I think he's been living off his name and his 2010 youtube clips for a long time.

Anyways, this is the MJD thread, I'm not going to talk about McFadden anymore. My initial point was I think MJD is the better back to own this year.

Edited by owenmills, 31 March 2014 - 03:41 PM.


#18 FFCollusion

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 04:49 PM

View Postowenmills, on 31 March 2014 - 03:38 PM, said:

My initial point was I think MJD is the better back to own this year.
I agree.  I thinks it's likely that MJD gets the early down work and goal line carries.  DMC could be better designed as a change of pace, passing down, and even a satellite type player.  It would get him in the open field, limit his carries and help him avoid harder hits, or trying to grind out yards in the trentches.
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#19 GPWMC

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Posted 03 April 2014 - 03:50 PM

View PostFFCollusion, on 29 March 2014 - 02:18 PM, said:

View PostGains, on 29 March 2014 - 01:52 PM, said:

I would have perfered MJD to stay in Jacksonville from a fantasy standpoint.

not trusting oakland as much. DMC will eat away at his value, at least until he stains his back for 3 months from bending over to tie his shoes.

I'm not arguing either way yet, just gunna throw some numbers out and see what they look like.
Last year Oaklands RB's combined for:
329 Carries, 1,353 yards, 13 TDs
87 catches, 786 yards, 2 TDs

On what was a rather abysmal team.
(Pryor ran for another 82/580 but I'll leave those off for now, but keep in mind nonetheless)

Even if we look at a direct split between "MJDMC" we get:
165/675/6 + 43/390/1

For a total of 1,065 yards 7 TDs each, or 148.5 points
Last year that was good for 20th in RB points.

If you want to give them an inflation of X% for improved QB/WR play (especially if they get D.Jax too)
Then increase the Raiders rushing attempts by Y% because you logically assume MJDMC will dictate a larger commitment to the run game than Jennings/Reece did, it would make sense, but I'll stick to bare minimums for the time being.

So, perhaps you don't believe the 50/50 split.  Perhaps its more likely to be an inverse 70/30.
*Meaning MoJo gets 70% of the carries but only 30% of the catches, and the reverse for DMC 30% carries, 70% catches...

MoJo would have 230 attempts, 947 yards, 5TD
26 receptions, 235 yards
for 148 points... :lol:

So it looks like no matter how you slice it, you could expect high end RB3 or flex value from an RB likely to be drafted in the... 6th to 9th rounds?  There's value in that, even more so when you consider that when one gets hurt, the others' value will rise dramatically, and even further if you consider an inflation in attempts do to team talent, sustained drives, WR threats to stretch the field, more trips to the red zone, etc and so forth.

Ffc I love your number breakdowns. Keep em coming, because they don't fall on def ears (eyes?).

#20 petekrum

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Posted 03 April 2014 - 04:39 PM

I will be very happy to go into this coming season with no Raiders on my team.
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It is not cowardice. It is love of life.




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