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2014-2015 Season: Punting Discussion


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#1 richg24

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 09:19 PM

This year I got first pick and took Durant so i said screw it, i'm not going to punt anything and try to dominate cause KD does everything. It worked well and i finished the regular season with a 121-59 record. Lost in the finals 5-4 though, opponent had a huge week and he built his team to beat mine...

Which leads me to think about punting next year.

I am thinking about punting fg% OR assists.

For those who have experience with either of these - were they strong teams? did you win your leagues?

post guys you would really want in the early rounds.

If you have another favorite, post that too, id be interested.

Edited by richg24, 12 April 2014 - 09:24 PM.

12 Team H2H 9 Cat 

 

PG:  Steph Curry, Jrue Holiday, Jeremy Lin

SG:  Wes Matthews, Alec Burks

SF:  DeMarre Carroll, K.J. McDaniels

PF:  Chris Bosh, Terrence Jones, Jared Sullinger

C:    Marc Gasol, Robin Lopez, Kelly Olynyk


#2 binhdvu83

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 01:28 AM

What you should punt should be base on who you pick with your top 2-3 picks in a snake draft. I usually ignore TOs when drafting and I try to draft a balance team. Once you're about 1/3 to 1/2 through your season you can really narrow down on what you need to punt and make trades accordingly.
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30 team (9-cat) H2H NBA dynasty league 1st year
G: CP3, J. Butler, J. Jack, S. Livingston, P. Prigioni
F: T. Harris, C. Frye, B. Diaw, M. Miller
C: M. Gasol, B. Wright

30 team (8-cat) H2H NBA dynasty league 6th year
PG: M. Chalmers, G. Vasquez, P. Prigioni
SG: A. Bradley, D. Harris
SF: N. Batum, J. Johnson, Q. Pondexter
PF: D. Nowitzki, T. Gibson
C: Anthony Davis, C. Bosh

#3 kane

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 02:20 AM

punt ft%

DJ+Drummond+Howard=win FG%,reb,Blk everyweek
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#4 Ajax

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 03:19 AM

I've built championship punt FT%, and punt TO's teams. Next year I'm probably going to try to punt points for the first time. Guys like P. Beverley, that are ranked very low due to their lack of scoring, are ranked much higher if punting points, and can be had very cheaply, since most average fantasy owners are enamored of their popcorn stat producers.

Edited by Ajax, 13 April 2014 - 03:19 AM.

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#5 battaginlemon

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 04:58 AM

In the playoffs I punt almost every cat I have little chance to win against a certain opponent. During the regular season I ignore TO's and generally punt blocks. People usually overpay for shotblockers and there are always a couple of teams punting FT% and dominating in BLK, I try to get Love if possible and then fill my roster with people like Lee, Pekovic and middle rounders like ZBo and Boozer getting lot of Pts & Reb and nice FT% and Ast. If things get really bad I also punt FG% since it's the most unpredictable cat and teams who punt FT% would win it anyway
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16-team 9-cat H2H dynasty (1st year)
G - Curry, Holiday, Jackson, Mayo, Sloan
- Parsons, Kidd-Gilchrist, Ross, Morrow

C - Vucevic, Monroe, R.Lopez, Varejao

14-team 9-cat H2H 5 keepers (1st year)
- Curry, Jennings, Wade, C.Lee, Morrow
F - Anthony, Gay, West, Dr.Green

C - Monroe, Hill, Gibson, Nene
 

14-team 9-cat ROTO

G/F - Conley, Calderon, Parker, Korver, Redick, Bradley, Gallinari, S.Hill

F/C - Bosh, Jefferson, Gortat, Gobert, Mi.Plumlee


#6 KeyboardHero

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 07:19 AM

I have a preference for punting fts simply because there are so many otherwise high value targets available mid to late in the draft every year who are terrible ft shooters. I'm not sure any other punt strat has as many players who jump so high in value once the respective stat is discounted.

I usually also support this by ignoring 3s aswell (as players who are bad at ft shooting are unlikely to be 3 pt shooters anyways).

Some rational for other stats though:

pts - probably the most overvalued stat. Alot of very good fantasy players drop (or are ranked low) in the draft every year simply because they don't score enough (eg. Ibaka has ended up with 1st round value for atleast 3 straight years now, but how often is he ever actually drafted/ranked pre-draft in the first round?). Worth noting though that having a few high % on good volume players and/or avoiding low % players on your team is still important, otherwise %s become a crap shoot week to week (or you may unintentionally punt a cat).

stls/blks - seems to be some logic in passing on a "hard to get" stats (mind you I find these are also 2 of the more undervalued stats anyways)

assists - strongest correlation of any stat and TOs exists with assists. By punting assists, you immediately give yourself a signficant edge in TOs

fg% - similar to FTs, there are alot of otherwise high value players available late® who are there because they offer negative values in this stat.


Much like bindhvu83 though, I wouldn't pigeon hole myself by going into a year by selecting what cat I was going to punt ahead of time. Rather i'd plan around where I draft + who is available early (ie. at the very least go into a draft with a few strats in mind)
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#7 s-kayos

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 09:34 AM

Is it still counted as punting if you completely ignore it?

Because I completely ignore TOs.


Also, I agree with punting FTs. My most dominant teams out of my fantasy teams were not the ones with LBJ (2) on them, but the ones (3) where I had 3 or more great bigs - DeMarC, Anthony Davis, DeAndre Jordan, and/or Drummond. (RoLo helped out too, but he and Anthony Davis could conceivably be on a team that isn't punting FTs)
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#8 Eternal

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 09:44 AM

Is it still counted as punting if you completely ignore it?

Because I completely ignore TOs.


Also, I agree with punting FTs. My most dominant teams out of my fantasy teams were not the ones with LBJ (2) on them, but the ones (3) where I had 3 or more great bigs - DeMarC, Anthony Davis, DeAndre Jordan, and/or Drummond. (RoLo helped out too, but he and Anthony Davis could conceivably be on a team that isn't punting FTs)


In H2H daily I ignore TO. The TO cat is one of the most ambiguous categories. If I'm down by a few, then I can easily adjust Sunday's lineup to win the TO cat.
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#9 KeyboardHero

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 09:47 AM

Is it still counted as punting if you completely ignore it?

Because I completely ignore TOs.


Also, I agree with punting FTs. My most dominant teams out of my fantasy teams were not the ones with LBJ (2) on them, but the ones (3) where I had 3 or more great bigs - DeMarC, Anthony Davis, DeAndre Jordan, and/or Drummond. (RoLo helped out too, but he and Anthony Davis could conceivably be on a team that isn't punting FTs)


I guess its a matter of semantics really.

I know when I draft with a punt strat I look at where players have/should/are rank(ed) without said stat accounted for (eg fts), but I never (well rarely) use TOs to determine how I value them. As the draft progresses I consider what I'm lacking (assists, rebs whatever), yet don't bother worrying if my TO count will be high (or low) - only what I 'need/want' in the other cats.

Basically TOs have 0 impact on how a players value changes based on my current strategy/needs. One could definetely say that that is 'punting'.

Maybe better put, I assume I'm losing them, but that rarely changes how I value a player (if that makes any sense :blink: )

Edited by KeyboardHero, 13 April 2014 - 09:49 AM.

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#10 dpeele

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Posted 13 April 2014 - 09:55 AM

I ended up punting assists, ft%, and points this year. I drafted Curry and Brow with my 1st two picks so that wasn't the plan at that point. But I got Kawhi in the 3rd, Horford in the 4th, Drummond in the 7th, and DJ in the 10th so I ran the numbers and saw what I had to do.

If you look at player rankings on BBM, Curry, Brow, Horford, Drummond, and DJ are 5 of the top 9 players in 9 cat this year when you punt ft% (and Kawhi is #20). I filled out my roster with a lot of sg/sf types- Parsons, Matthews, Brewer, Marion, Barnes, Carroll, Henderson, Sefolosha, Reggie Jackson, and Ellis (who was a bit of a waste since he ended up basically running the point but still got me a lot of steals) and there you have.

I should mention that this a head-to-head playoff league so you essentially just have to have a good enough team to make the top 4 (and winning 6-3 each week will do that) and then in the playoffs you basically want to concentrate on 5 categories. I punted 3's as well down the stretch and started playing guys like Chris Anderson, Kyle O'Quinn, Taj Gibson (who I held for most of the year), Henry Sims, and Gorgui Dieng.
8 team 9 category league Weekly Head to Head                                            9 team 8 category Daily Roto
PG, SG, SF, PF, 3x C, 3x F,3x G, 3x Util, 6x Bench                                        PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, 2x C, 2x Util 4x Bench
3pts, pts, rbs, asts, stls, blks, fg%, ft%, tos                                                    3pts, pts, rbs, asts, stls, blks, fg%, tos
C Drummond, Davis, Horford, McGee, Jordan                                               C Jordan, Howard
PF Ilyasova, Thompson, Wright, Splitter                                                        PF Drummond, Favors
SF Barnes, C Brewer, Parsons, Carroll, Leonard, Marion                             SF T Young
SG Sefolosha, Henderson, Matthews                                                            SG Korver, Beal, Evans, Leonard
PG Curry, Ellis, Nelson, Jackson                                                                   PG Irving, Jackson, Jack, Lowry, Dragic

#11 Straight Outta CPT

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 01:57 PM

Whatever the other managers in the draft are overvaluing.
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#12 taaakun

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 06:16 PM

I had great success this season punting assists, and filling out my PG position with players like Bledsoe, Beverley, Collison, and Chalmers. Punting assists helps you win TOs as well.

Drafting strong power forwards early helps you in FG, FT (most superstar PFs like davis, aldridge, love, dirk, ibaka are good FT-shooters), PTS, REBs, BLKs, TOs, so I try to prioritize them as the core of my team. Winning FG, FT, and TO consistently gives you 3 of the 5 cats already.

3's are easy to get in free agency so there's solid value in punting them in the draft.
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#13 kupsman4

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Posted 14 April 2014 - 08:24 PM

I'll punt LeBron.

#14 markdash

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Posted 15 April 2014 - 11:52 AM

9 cat H2H? If so, the best categories to punt are threes and blocks. There are tons of players who don't contribute to these categories (usually one or the other), whereas all players accumulate some assists so it's hard to truly punt the category.

Furthermore, punting assists is often smart because of the connection to turnovers. The two are correlated; it's very, very difficult to score higher than the 75th percentile in both categories combined (i.e. 9 points in both categories, or 12 and 6, etc.). As a result, I'm more than happy to take a 3 in assists if I get an 11 or 12 in turnovers. In the meantime, my opponents have been blowing high picks on point guards and end up with a 10 in assists and a 3 in turnovers, so we end up in the same place.
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#15 richg24

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Posted 15 April 2014 - 12:59 PM

9 cat H2H? If so, the best categories to punt are threes and blocks. There are tons of players who don't contribute to these categories (usually one or the other), whereas all players accumulate some assists so it's hard to truly punt the category.

Furthermore, punting assists is often smart because of the connection to turnovers. The two are correlated; it's very, very difficult to score higher than the 75th percentile in both categories combined (i.e. 9 points in both categories, or 12 and 6, etc.). As a result, I'm more than happy to take a 3 in assists if I get an 11 or 12 in turnovers. In the meantime, my opponents have been blowing high picks on point guards and end up with a 10 in assists and a 3 in turnovers, so we end up in the same place.


that is interesting and seems very true, never thought of it that way. so really by punting assists you don't get an overall edge on teams that stack point guards.

12 Team H2H 9 Cat 

 

PG:  Steph Curry, Jrue Holiday, Jeremy Lin

SG:  Wes Matthews, Alec Burks

SF:  DeMarre Carroll, K.J. McDaniels

PF:  Chris Bosh, Terrence Jones, Jared Sullinger

C:    Marc Gasol, Robin Lopez, Kelly Olynyk


#16 wuzza

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Posted 15 April 2014 - 07:54 PM

Punting is a lot easier in an auction draft, because you can get exactly who you want, and generally some of your specialists will be very cheap, allowing you to spend big bucks on some multi-cat guys earlier on.

My strategy is to be very strong in 5 cats, and competitive in two others. I generally lose 2 cats every week.

I like to punt points, cause everyone else is overpaying. I like to punt assists, because they can be hard to find on the wire in case of an injury, and by punting, you'll be pretty competitive in TOs.

I don't like to punt either ratio category, because they are not affected by volume, so therefore an injury in the playoffs doesn't kill you, the way it might in steals or assists.

I never punt 3s because there are specialists who can be gotten very cheaply at the end of drafts, or on the wire - your Randy Foyes, Nick Youngs etc - this season Trevor Ariza and Gerald Green emerged as contributors, so if you were quick/lucky, you would have gotten them.
The point is there will always be someone who starts getting 28 minutes and pops 2~2.5 3s per game.
If you're going for 3s, you may as well go for FT% as most of those guys shoot well from the line.

I'm usually not that competitive in rebounds, as (someone pointed out) the best rebounders are usually bad ft% guys, but I will still try to get bigs that rebound and ft% well, such as Marc Gasol, Roy Hibbert (I'm speaking as my thinking was last October, not so much now).

I don't like to punt blocks either because there are so many specialists that can be gotten late. Going into the year, I was thinking Robin Lopez, Bismack biyombo, Chris Kaman - obviously not all of them worked out, but others came along like Elton Brand, Chris Anderson etc who averaged 1.5~1.8 Blocks per game.

So if you concentrate your top picks/auction dollars on the studs who can help you in 4 or 5 of the cats you need, then you can round out your roster cheaply with specialists. It might not be as much fun as owning Carmelo or LeBron, but it can be much more effective.

If you get first pick and can get KD, it's tempting to go for it all, but he also gives you a great base in FG, FT, 3s, STL. If you follow him around pick 20 (shallow league) with Kawhi, Nic Batum or Ibaka (if they're there) you are looking very strong already.

#17 Trade Monster

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 01:25 AM

I usually play H2H daily without TOs. My favorite positions to draft are PGs & PFs. So I usually punt ft% and blocks. I hate SG. Gerald Green. Martin, Beal, Waiters, Bradley always seem to give flat lines. Yeah they will give you 3s and points but they lack fg%, assist, rebounds, steals.
10 Team H2H 10 Cat. D/D T/D No T.O.

PG. Lillard, Collison, Carter-Williams, Westbrook, MO Williams

SG. Oladipo, Crawford

SF. Antetokounmpo

PF. Bosh, Markief Morris, Favors, Mirotic

C. Howard, Valanciunas, Olynyk

#18 ShabbaRanks

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 12:16 PM

Punting Assists in my 14 team. Won the chip.


Consisted of a core of Melo, Brow, Kawhi, Duncan, Jodie, Carroll, Singler, Bev, Patty Mills, Birdman.

I didn't plan on that in the beginning. I drafted Curry and traded Gordon Heyward, Bosh, and Parsons for Lebron. But the Warriors playoff schedule scared me. So I traded Lebron and slumping Tyreke for Melo and Jimmy Butler. And I traded Curry, Amir Johnson and Danny Green for injured Kawhi and Brow. I then moved Jimmy Butler and Frye for Duncan.



Basically punting assists is the way to go IMO. Tons of value on the wire and PG's are always overvalued.

Edited by ShabbaRanks, 17 April 2014 - 12:17 PM.


#19 richg24

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 10:05 PM

Punting Assists in my 14 team. Won the chip.


Consisted of a core of Melo, Brow, Kawhi, Duncan, Jodie, Carroll, Singler, Bev, Patty Mills, Birdman.

I didn't plan on that in the beginning. I drafted Curry and traded Gordon Heyward, Bosh, and Parsons for Lebron. But the Warriors playoff schedule scared me. So I traded Lebron and slumping Tyreke for Melo and Jimmy Butler. And I traded Curry, Amir Johnson and Danny Green for injured Kawhi and Brow. I then moved Jimmy Butler and Frye for Duncan.



Basically punting assists is the way to go IMO. Tons of value on the wire and PG's are always overvalued.


ya most likely i will give it a go next year if i don't get cp3 or curry in the 1st. if either are available after 5 i would have to take them though. for me its

1 KD
2 Lebron
3 AD
4 CP3
5 Curry/Love

if love or AD is available at the 4 or 5 spot then i think it would be a great strategy. draft an elite big in the 2nd and 3rd and some mid tier guards in 4-6. then can get some sleeper bigs in later rounds. probably cant get rolo past the 5th anymore but maybe. JV, Dieng guys like that i think can outplay their adp easily. id prolly target point guards like conley, kemba, beverley, oladipo, calderon..etc

Edited by richg24, 17 April 2014 - 10:09 PM.

12 Team H2H 9 Cat 

 

PG:  Steph Curry, Jrue Holiday, Jeremy Lin

SG:  Wes Matthews, Alec Burks

SF:  DeMarre Carroll, K.J. McDaniels

PF:  Chris Bosh, Terrence Jones, Jared Sullinger

C:    Marc Gasol, Robin Lopez, Kelly Olynyk


#20 colepenhagen

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 11:20 PM

i basically always punt t/o but thats cause i go heavy on guards most of the time

i won a league this year punt blocks and made up for it with boards, ft%, 3's ( love, jo val, vucevich)
this worked out really well dead lasst 426 blocks

it all depends on who u can get with the 1st rd for example you not going to punt ft% if you take love curry or kd in the 1st rd

12 team 1 pt ppr $
qb A Rodgers
wr J Nelson, D Bryant
rb E Lacy
wr/te Ty Hilton
wr/rb G Bernard
te Kelce
def NE, STL (next week vs Oak)
bench

  Fleener, Tre Mason, Hawkins (drop for kicker)

 

 

12 team 14 cat h2h 

g westbrook, ellis, teague, oladipo, knight,  calderon, young

f kd, derozan, t harris,  ed davis, 

c monroe, z bo, bogut, boozer

 





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