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Homer Draft Strategy 2014


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#1 mmrodri

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 03:53 PM

I thought I'd get this train rolling nice and early. What combinations of players from the same team do we think will be feasible (ADP-wise) and productive enough to justify drafting together?

Typical suggestions each year are SJax/Julio/Roddy/Tony G./Matt Ryan or Lynch/Harvin/RWilson/Seattle D/Hauschka and Brady/Gronk/Gostkowski and so on and so forth. If anyone else has some less obvious ones, it'd be great to start discussing them.

My personal interest this year will be on Forte/Marshall/Jeffrey/Chicago D/Cutler/Gould given the seasons they had last year and the improvements that Chicago made to their D in the offseason.

Involved in this discussion should also be how the production of one player can adversely affect another (QB has a bad day and your WRs are bad too, in less ideal scenarios a great day for one WR or RB can cause the other one to disappear that day.

#2 Gains

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 03:58 PM

You want da bears D???? Really? Even as a bears fan I think that is nuts



#3 qcolts

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:01 PM

Guy in my league last year had brees, colston, graham, pierre thomas, sproles and he actually did pretty well because it was a high octane offense and he got the TD whether it was a run or pass. Another guy had Wilson and Lynch and he missed the playoffs by one game largely because dwayne bowe was his second wr. There were weeks though where Wilson and Lynch absolutely destroyed the opposing team. I think the best strategy for this is picking the rb and qb on high octane offenses. I know a lot of people like to pick the qb and wr for double points, but by drafting the qb and rb on a good offense you are guaranteed to get every touchdown. Therefore, Brady and Ridley/vereen, Rodgers and Lacy, Manning and Ball, Murray and Romo, Wilson and Lynch are combos I really like.
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#4 mmrodri

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:04 PM

You want da bears D???? Really? Even as a bears fan I think that is nuts


I hadn't put much investigation there specifically yet, but I feel like they've made a lot of good upgrades to their D-Line to stop the run and they project to be rush the passer a lot and sacks are worth 1 point each in my league. They give up points and yards, and there'll have to be a determination on how bad they'll be there, but if they show in preseason that can ballhawk and sack that difference away and score a TD every so often, I'd be willing to bite. As of right now, I wouldn't put money on it, but we'll see how the draft plays out.

#5 Gains

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:06 PM


You want da bears D???? Really? Even as a bears fan I think that is nuts


I hadn't put much investigation there specifically yet, but I feel like they've made a lot of good upgrades to their D-Line to stop the run and they project to be rush the passer a lot and sacks are worth 1 point each in my league. They give up points and yards, and there'll have to be a determination on how bad they'll be there, but if they show in preseason that can ballhawk and sack that difference away and score a TD every so often, I'd be willing to bite. As of right now, I wouldn't put money on it, but we'll see how the draft plays out.

. Lol at preseason

The skins were perfect last offseason as were the 0-16 lions team



#6 mmrodri

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:14 PM

Guy in my league last year had brees, colston, graham, pierre thomas, sproles and he actually did pretty well because it was a high octane offense and he got the TD whether it was a run or pass. Another guy had Wilson and Lynch and he missed the playoffs by one game largely because dwayne bowe was his second wr. There were weeks though where Wilson and Lynch absolutely destroyed the opposing team. I think the best strategy for this is picking the rb and qb on high octane offenses. I know a lot of people like to pick the qb and wr for double points, but by drafting the qb and rb on a good offense you are guaranteed to get every touchdown. Therefore, Brady and Ridley/vereen, Rodgers and Lacy, Manning and Ball, Murray and Romo, Wilson and Lynch are combos I really like.


By your logic, Morris/RG3 seems like a good bet, right?

Kaep/Gore seems fringe-y at best given the perennial questions about Gore's mileage and Kaep's inconsistency.

Luck/TRich in the 5th/6th as a "sleeper" combo? I have the same feeling about SJax/Ryan and wouldn't mind pairing Gerhart with a rookie QB (assuming they draft Manziel or Bridgewater and he's their Day One starter) if I'm feeling lucky on draft day. Obviously I would be picking more than one QB and would be probably end up streaming the QB position all season in the latter scenario.

Edited by mmrodri, 23 April 2014 - 04:16 PM.


#7 Ol Blues

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:15 PM

None of the above. Multiple players from the same team, even if you hit the right team like the Broncos in '13 and the Saints in their Super Bowl season, is a boom/bust strategy. Last season Game 15 (Chargers) undid the Broncos' heavy strategy. I believe it was Game 16 in 2008 that undid the Saints heavy strategy. Typically, if you hit right on a strong offense, you win big one week and lose to a weak fantasy team the next. If your draft and free agent pick up skills are weak drafting multiple players from strong offensive teams can make sense.
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#8 munde53

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:21 PM

The guy who drafted the Broncos' lineup last year is probably quite wealthy.

Edited by munde53, 23 April 2014 - 04:29 PM.


#9 mmrodri

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:27 PM

None of the above. Multiple players from the same team, even if you hit the right team like the Broncos in '13 and the Saints in their Super Bowl season, is a boom/bust strategy. Last season Game 15 (Chargers) undid the Broncos' heavy strategy. I believe it was Game 16 in 2008 that undid the Saints heavy strategy. Typically, if you hit right on a strong offense, you win big one week and lose to a weak fantasy team the next. If your draft and free agent pick up skills are weak drafting multiple players from strong offensive teams can make sense.


I actually agree to a large extent and I usually draft BPA and try to go against the grain of hype trains and find value in my early picks so I've never come close to any of these scenarios. However in a mock I did the other day (cue "lol @ April mock drafts"), I picked Forte in the first and Marshall was the BPA when I picked in the second. When I got my pick in the 3rd, Alshon Jeffrey was the BPA, but I consciously made a choice to select Antonio Brown instead so I didn't get stuck with the Homer Team scenario.

So my question to you is, where would you put your limit? Do all of your starters need to come from different teams? If BPA in the 2nd and/or 3rd round is in on the same team as your 1st round pick, do you intentionally select the next best guy or do you draft BPA and look to trade at a later date?

#10 FFCollusion

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:40 PM

I dislike the strategy, but Dez, Murray, Witten, Romo and Bailey.
RG3, morris, garcon, djax, reed, forbath.
Ap, Rudolph, Patterson, Walsh.
Charles Clay, Mike Wallace, Moreno.
Stafford, Tron, Bush/Bell/Both, Hanson.
Gio, Aj, Gresham, Cinn D, K and... Dare I say Dalton?
Big Ben, Antonio, Miller, and Bell.
Foster, Andre J, Hopkins, Hou D, K and the TE that took over for Daniela that was decent... Garret Graham?
Martin, Tim Wright, V.Jax.
That's all I've got off the top of my head, would need to see my rankings or 2013 results to go any further.
Cj?k, Vick, Decker, NY D, Folk?
I do it for the likes...

#11 buckeyestilidie

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 05:00 PM

I dislike the strategy, but Dez, Murray, Witten, Romo and Bailey.
RG3, morris, garcon, djax, reed, forbath.
Ap, Rudolph, Patterson, Walsh.
Charles Clay, Mike Wallace, Moreno.
Stafford, Tron, Bush/Bell/Both, Hanson.
Gio, Aj, Gresham, Cinn D, K and... Dare I say Dalton?
Big Ben, Antonio, Miller, and Bell.
Foster, Andre J, Hopkins, Hou D, K and the TE that took over for Daniela that was decent... Garret Graham?
Martin, Tim Wright, V.Jax.
That's all I've got off the top of my head, would need to see my rankings or 2013 results to go any further.
Cj?k, Vick, Decker, NY D, Folk?

My personal favorite would be Rodgers, Lacy, Cobb, Nelson, Crosby?
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* 4 straight superbowl appearances
* 2 super bowl victories

2014 Jeremy Top Dustan Bottoms
QB:Luck
RB:Murray
RB:Bell
WR:Odell
WR:Floyd
WR:Shoelace
TE:Donell
K:Parker
D:Cleveland
Flex:Ellington
Bench:Houston, Cobb, Vereen, Ingram, D. Walker, Ryan


#12 FantasyDominion

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 05:39 PM

Dez Romo Murray Witten Bailey is correct answer... Their defense is ATROCIOUS and thus will be in multiple shoot outs...

#13 buckeyestilidie

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 05:47 PM

Dez Romo Murray Witten Bailey is correct answer... Their defense is ATROCIOUS and thus will be in multiple shoot outs...

If you're analyzing purely across the board at stars
Rodgers>Romo
Lacy>Murray
Nelson & Cobb>Dez & Williams
T.B.A?<Witten
Crosby<Bailey

* 4 straight superbowl appearances
* 2 super bowl victories

2014 Jeremy Top Dustan Bottoms
QB:Luck
RB:Murray
RB:Bell
WR:Odell
WR:Floyd
WR:Shoelace
TE:Donell
K:Parker
D:Cleveland
Flex:Ellington
Bench:Houston, Cobb, Vereen, Ingram, D. Walker, Ryan


#14 mmrodri

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 05:54 PM

My personal favorite would be Rodgers, Lacy, Cobb, Nelson, Crosby?


The problem is that at best you'll get 3 of Lacy, Rodgers, Nelson, Cobb based on ADP. Lacy in the early/mid first is a fair guess, but Rodgers is going anywhere from late-first to late second, Jordy is going mid second to early third and Cobb is off the board by the mid-third round. That's 3 rounds and 4 players to draft. Unless somehow Cobb slips into the 4th, I'm not sure you can get this one without trading to acquire key parts.

#15 buckeyestilidie

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 06:07 PM


My personal favorite would be Rodgers, Lacy, Cobb, Nelson, Crosby?


The problem is that at best you'll get 3 of Lacy, Rodgers, Nelson, Cobb based on ADP. Lacy in the early/mid first is a fair guess, but Rodgers is going anywhere from late-first to late second, Jordy is going mid second to early third and Cobb is off the board by the mid-third round. That's 3 rounds and 4 players to draft. Unless somehow Cobb slips into the 4th, I'm not sure you can get this one without trading to acquire key parts.

That's true, but I've seen crazier stuff happen. At least in my league...

* 4 straight superbowl appearances
* 2 super bowl victories

2014 Jeremy Top Dustan Bottoms
QB:Luck
RB:Murray
RB:Bell
WR:Odell
WR:Floyd
WR:Shoelace
TE:Donell
K:Parker
D:Cleveland
Flex:Ellington
Bench:Houston, Cobb, Vereen, Ingram, D. Walker, Ryan


#16 GPWMC

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 07:35 PM

My first draft 3 years ago (when I was completely new to football - thought a tight end played defense), I drafted both Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings and it actually worked out spectacularly. I drafted using a cheat sheet that had players put into different tiers and just happened to unknowingly grab two guys from the same team.

I can remember watching my first game bouncing off the walls when both Jordy and Jennings caught touchdowns. Knew right then and there that this fantasy football thing was for me.

This year, if you draft at the end of the second you might be able to snag the marshall, jeffrey combo. Another great strategy would be Julio and White. Both are cheap enough that you can grab a great RB1, Julio, RB2, RB3/TE/QB, White.

By doing so, you're betting on a team's total offense rather than a single player, which if as Munde pointed out, worked wonders with the Broncos last year.

#17 WhatWouldDitkaDo

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 09:07 PM

I think that in general QB/RB is the best homer strategy. That way regardless of which WR catches the TDs or passes for that game, you will still get those yards and TDs with the QB. Also, the RB will have all the rushing yards and TDs, but you can also get double points for any receptions and receiving TDs the RB gets. I think a few really good specific combos will be:

Peyton & Ball
Lacy & Rodgers
Foles & McCoy

Team 1: Yo Soy Fiesta | 12-Team Dynasty PPR | 4-4 Record
QB: Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer
RB: LeSean McCoy, Darren McFadden, Rashad Jennings, Fred Jackson, Carlos Hyde
WR: Jordy Nelson, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon LaFell, Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree, Martavis Bryant
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce      K: Shayne Graham      D/ST: Indianapolis Colts

 

Team 2: Lacy Panties And Crabs | 16-Team PPR IDP | 5-3 Record
QB: Russell Wilson
RB: Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Ahmad Bradshaw, Justin Forsett, Jerick McKinnon, Jonas Gray
WR: Brandon Marshall, Mike Wallace, Roddy White, Michael Floyd, Michael Crabtree, Justin Hunter
TE: Larry Donnell
LB: DeAndre Levy, Paul Worrilow, Demario Davis, Jerrell Freeman
DL: Sheldon Richardson, Jerry Hughes, Chris Clemons
DB: Perrish Cox, Vontae Davis, Aqib Talib      K: Shayne Graham


#18 CTonyRow

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 10:15 PM

What about Lacy in the 1st, Rodgers in the 2nd, and Cobb in the 3rd???

Check out my Fantasy Contributor page on fantasy pros.com!

Follow me on Twitter, @CTonyRow, the link to my fantasypro's contributor page is on there!

12-Team Standard League

Record: 5-3

QB- Jay Cutler, Tony Romo

RB- DeMarco Murray, Giovani Bernard, Shane Vereen, Pierre Thomas, Bryce Brown, Joseph Randle

WR- Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, Michael Floyd, Reuben Randle, Stevie Johnson

TE- Dwayne Allen, Vernon Davis


#19 buckeyestilidie

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 10:23 PM

What about Lacy in the 1st, Rodgers in the 2nd, and Cobb in the 3rd???

Cobb could go in the fourth which is the only problem I see with it.

* 4 straight superbowl appearances
* 2 super bowl victories

2014 Jeremy Top Dustan Bottoms
QB:Luck
RB:Murray
RB:Bell
WR:Odell
WR:Floyd
WR:Shoelace
TE:Donell
K:Parker
D:Cleveland
Flex:Ellington
Bench:Houston, Cobb, Vereen, Ingram, D. Walker, Ryan


#20 munde53

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Posted 24 April 2014 - 12:02 AM


What about Lacy in the 1st, Rodgers in the 2nd, and Cobb in the 3rd???

Cobb could go in the fourth which is the only problem I see with it.

I don't see Cobb lasting until the 4th.




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