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Dallas Keuchel 2014 Outlook


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#1 Rabbit Maranville

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Posted 26 April 2014 - 07:25 PM

He has quietly put up some decent numbers. If he keeps this up, he's definitely rosterable as a back-end guy in mixers.

His peripherals say the numbers are for real, and he's scrapped his bad curve for a good slider. Allow Eno Sarris to explain(excuse the random URL)

http://www.fangraphs...-wrong-pitches/

I bought going into this week, and I've liked what I've seen. Who else has made the add?

17-team Dynasty 2 QB .67 PPR

-----------------------------------------

 

QB1 - Mike Tomczak

QB2 - Akili Smith

WR1 -  J.J. Stokes

WR2 - Troy Edwards

WR3 - Cordarrelle Patterson

RB1 - Ki-Jana Carter

RB2 - Tim Biakabutuka

FLEX - Ron Dayne

TE - Mike Ditka

K - Bill Gramatica

DEF- Pottsville Maroons

 

Bench-

Gibran Hamdan, Ryan Leaf, Chris Fuamatu-Maʻafala, Yancey Thigpen, Deion Sanders, Martin Gramatica


#2 Ragnaroker

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Posted 26 April 2014 - 07:28 PM

I've strongly considered it as a back end rotation guy like you said but I'm scared he'll blow up and ruin a week of mine. Then again I don't know much about him and haven't done the research.

#3 Fenam

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:00 AM

I've got my eye on Keuchel.

Things I like so far:
1. SwStr% is trending up 11.2% this season versus 8.9% '13 and 5.5% '12.
2. Aforementioned change from Curve to Slider
3. The fastball has been much better this season so far. Looks like he is using the two seamer more with much better control. I can bust out the sabermetrics if you want but it might be a little much. Summary: >FT% + >FT(K%)-FT(BB%) = :)
4. Trending down Contact% is 85,3% versus 90.2% '13 and 93.5% '12
5. Of pitchers under age 28 his K/BB is tenth. Notable guys he is currently ahead of: Lynn, Straily, Darvish, Cashner, Ventura, Teheran, Ryu, Wheeler. He's 26 btw and was born on New Years day in 1988.

Obviously all that can change in one bad start, but so far so good.

"He who knows much about others is learned, but he who understands himself is more intelligent. He who controls others may be powerful, but he who has mastered himself is mightier still."


- Lao-Tsu, Tao Teh King


#4 RAZRr1275

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Posted 03 May 2014 - 05:18 PM

His start today was nowhere as bad as the stats would indicate. He was absolutely dealing through 6, then suddenly lost his control and walked the bases loaded. Cisnero comes in and then proceeds to let all of the inherited runners score and then 2 more runs of his own in an 8 run inning for the Mariners
Roto keeper (keeps 15) that has the following cats R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, SLG, IP, K, QS, SV, ERA WHIP. 270 Start limit

C - Devin Mesoraco
1B - Jose Bautista
2B - Daniel Murphy
3B - Wilmer Flores
SS - Ian Desmond
IF - Jose Abreu
OF - Carlos Gomez, Jose Bautista, Bryce Harper, Corey Dickerson, Michael Brantley
UTIL - Matt Holliday
Bench - Nolan Arenado, Jake Marisnick, Avisail Garcia
SP - Max Scherzer, Zach Greinke, Julio Teheran, Derek Holland, Gerrit Cole, Jake Arrieta, Jose Quintana, Dallas Keuchel, Mike Fiers
RP - Drew Storen, Tony Watson, Kevin Quackenbush, Delin Betances, Wade Davis, Ken Giles
DL - (3 spots) - Matt Harvey, Cliff Lee, Garrett Richards

#5 The Czar

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 02:25 PM

This guy should be monitored in all mixed leagues right now.

He is sporting a very nice K% and GB%, which are two factors that I love to see in a pitcher.

His numbers so far are respectable, but the peripheral indicators suggest that he is actually getting a tad unlucky and should actually have even better numbers. He had a 3.35 FIP and 3.08 xFIP entering today and is putting up a solid performance against Detroit.

Right now he might just be a spot starter for you depending on your league size, but if he on your waiver, his numbers so far are legitimate and might actually improve once that HR/FB% and LOB% regulate a little bit.

Edited by The Czar, 08 May 2014 - 02:25 PM.

Baseball!

#6 RoidRagers

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 03:45 PM

He shut down everyone but V-Mart. Impressive.

#7 Tchaikovsky08

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 05:26 PM

This guy should be monitored in all mixed leagues right now.

He is sporting a very nice K% and GB%, which are two factors that I love to see in a pitcher.

His numbers so far are respectable, but the peripheral indicators suggest that he is actually getting a tad unlucky and should actually have even better numbers. He had a 3.35 FIP and 3.08 xFIP entering today and is putting up a solid performance against Detroit.

Right now he might just be a spot starter for you depending on your league size, but if he on your waiver, his numbers so far are legitimate and might actually improve once that HR/FB% and LOB% regulate a little bit.


Keuchel presents a perfect opportunity for a bottom-of-the-barrel bargain that may pay dividends.

He is on no one's radar for good reason.
  • Terrible career ERA? Check.
  • Mediocre career K rate? Check.
  • Mediocre 3.95 ERA this year? Check.
  • Plays for the worst team in baseball? Check.
Yet he is leading the entire majors by over 4% in best ground ball rate (66+%); has completely reworked his ability to rack up strikeouts (21.7% K rate, 8.17 K/9) that is backed up by excellent peripherals (10.9% SwSt, 75% contact, 2.97 FIP, 3.08 xFIP). I can't see a single thing in his profile that he is doing worse this year than previous years, except for his F-strike%, which is only slightly down to a still very-good 61.8%.

Although his .308 BABIP seems normal and unlikely to decline, he is giving up only 11.5% line drives and is generating 13% pop ups -- in other words, even his moderate .308 BABIP may start going down and help Keuchel's overall numbers improve.

All this to say that I think Keuchel is primed for a very nice rest of season. He won't get many wins, and he needs to cut down on HRs allowed, but I see no reason why this elite ground ball, solid K-rate pitcher shouldn't be owned in at least 14 team leagues right now.

#8 spaghetti

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 06:28 PM

Great article that could explain his new found success:
http://www.fangraphs...ew-slider-good/

#9 Flippped

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 03:33 PM

Anyone thinking of rolling him out against the Rangers tonight?

ESPN 12 Team Points League with holds

              

C:   J. Lucroy

1B: E. Encarnacion

2B: J. Kipnis

3B: N. Arenado

SS: T.Story

OF: A. McCutchon, N. Cruz, J. Ellsbury

Util: N. Castellanos, M.Ozuna

SP:  J. Zimmerman, M. Wacha, J. Samardzia, D. Smyly, J. Garica, C. Tillman, J. Tomlin,S. Wright, S. Manea, B. Snell

RP: C. Kimbrel, S. Tolleson, AJ Ramos, J. McGee, J. Peralta 

 

DL:  A. DeSclafani, D. Travis, J. Kelly


#10 Fenam

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 03:48 PM

Anyone thinking of rolling him out against the Rangers tonight?


Rolling the dice and starting him. The Rangers have been lackluster to start the season. That coupled with not many games this week is prompting me to start him. He'll probably stick on my team if he looks decent. Hoping for the QS + Ks and not much else.

"He who knows much about others is learned, but he who understands himself is more intelligent. He who controls others may be powerful, but he who has mastered himself is mightier still."


- Lao-Tsu, Tao Teh King


#11 ccsae

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 05:00 PM

He's been quietly decent and his stats have me interested. If he has a good game against Texas its time to grab him.

#12 Flippped

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 05:59 PM

Keuchel is 0-2 with a 4.75 ERA in five career starts against the Rangers.
Think I'm going to pass on him tonight.

Read more at http://sportschatpla...wITO1iA759zs.99

ESPN 12 Team Points League with holds

              

C:   J. Lucroy

1B: E. Encarnacion

2B: J. Kipnis

3B: N. Arenado

SS: T.Story

OF: A. McCutchon, N. Cruz, J. Ellsbury

Util: N. Castellanos, M.Ozuna

SP:  J. Zimmerman, M. Wacha, J. Samardzia, D. Smyly, J. Garica, C. Tillman, J. Tomlin,S. Wright, S. Manea, B. Snell

RP: C. Kimbrel, S. Tolleson, AJ Ramos, J. McGee, J. Peralta 

 

DL:  A. DeSclafani, D. Travis, J. Kelly


#13 RAZRr1275

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 06:09 PM

Keuchel is 0-2 with a 4.75 ERA in five career starts against the Rangers.
Think I'm going to pass on him tonight.

Read more at http://sportschatpla...wITO1iA759zs.99

He's a case where those numbers won't be so useful since he's reinvented himself for this year with the slider
Roto keeper (keeps 15) that has the following cats R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, SLG, IP, K, QS, SV, ERA WHIP. 270 Start limit

C - Devin Mesoraco
1B - Jose Bautista
2B - Daniel Murphy
3B - Wilmer Flores
SS - Ian Desmond
IF - Jose Abreu
OF - Carlos Gomez, Jose Bautista, Bryce Harper, Corey Dickerson, Michael Brantley
UTIL - Matt Holliday
Bench - Nolan Arenado, Jake Marisnick, Avisail Garcia
SP - Max Scherzer, Zach Greinke, Julio Teheran, Derek Holland, Gerrit Cole, Jake Arrieta, Jose Quintana, Dallas Keuchel, Mike Fiers
RP - Drew Storen, Tony Watson, Kevin Quackenbush, Delin Betances, Wade Davis, Ken Giles
DL - (3 spots) - Matt Harvey, Cliff Lee, Garrett Richards

#14 UVA_Drew

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 08:59 PM

looking dominant through 5 vs. Tex

gets 2 starts next week @LAA and @Sea

might be worth a pickup

12 Team Yahoo, Auction Draft, 0.5 PPR:  2-1

Changed strategy up this year, spent big $$ on WR, then felt very fortunate to still land Miller and Gore:

 

QB:  Philip Rivers

WR: Julio Jones

WR: Odell Beckham Jr.

RB:  Lamar Miller

RB:  Frank Gore

TE:  Charles Clay

W/R/T: Kendall Wright

K:   Justin Tucker

DEF: Green Bay/Houston

 

BN: Delanie Walker, Leonard Hankerson, Christine Michael, Andre Williams, Antonio Andrews


#15 bmay

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 09:06 PM

Keuchel is 0-2 with a 4.75 ERA in five career starts against the Rangers.
Think I'm going to pass on him tonight.

Read more at http://sportschatpla...wITO1iA759zs.99


5 starts is a useless sample size.
14-team H2H Points League (weekly):
C - McCann
1B - Rizzo
2B - Cano
3B - Encarnacion
SS - Bogaerts
OF - Braun, Bruce, Hunter
DH - Seager
Bench - Beltran, Davis, Harper (DL), Polanco, Solarte

P - Bailey, Cain, Doolittle, Iwakuma, Kluber, Lynn, Quintana, Samardzija
Bench - De La Rosa, Holland (DL), Janssen, Kuroda, Liriano, Porcello, Smyly, Syndergaard (M)

#16 ponziacs

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 09:28 PM

7 IP, 0 runs and only at 81 pitch count.

#17 Rabbit Maranville

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 09:33 PM

GB machine. Seems to induce one whenever he feels like it.

17-team Dynasty 2 QB .67 PPR

-----------------------------------------

 

QB1 - Mike Tomczak

QB2 - Akili Smith

WR1 -  J.J. Stokes

WR2 - Troy Edwards

WR3 - Cordarrelle Patterson

RB1 - Ki-Jana Carter

RB2 - Tim Biakabutuka

FLEX - Ron Dayne

TE - Mike Ditka

K - Bill Gramatica

DEF- Pottsville Maroons

 

Bench-

Gibran Hamdan, Ryan Leaf, Chris Fuamatu-Maʻafala, Yancey Thigpen, Deion Sanders, Martin Gramatica


#18 ponziacs

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 09:46 PM

struck out the side in the 8th

#19 rag9876

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 09:59 PM

Shut out against the Rangers should get people talking. Is this guy the real deal?

#20 vmo1059

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 09:59 PM

Complete game shutout against the Rangers. Nicely done.

- some kind of roster -