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Jordy Nelson 2014 Season OutlookTop 5 fantasy WR?


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#1 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 10:04 AM

In Nelson's 8 games playing with a healthy Rodgers, he posted a 49 rec 810 yd 7 TD line.  Extrapolate that line to a full 16 game slate with ARodge and you get a ridiculous 98 rec 1620 yd 14 TD season.  He would have been the #1 fantasy WR in 2013.

Obviously you can't just assume or fully trust extrapolated #'s but this clearly shows the upside that Jordy has playing with Rodgers in this GB offense.  Yes, Cobb missed most of the season but GB lost James Jones and Finley this offseason, so in my opinion, there will be plenty of passes to go around and a healthy Cobb will not take away production from Nelson.

It looks like Nelson's current WR ADP is 8 (pick 3.01 overall), which is fairly ranked, but I personally have him ranked over Julio, Josh Gordon, and AJ Green - with only Demaryius, Dez, Calvin, BMarsh ahead of him.

#2 Gains

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 10:15 AM

Dam that is expensive

Rodgers doesn't discriminate or play favorites.

Cobb will have a big impact

#3 Biddy711

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 11:23 AM

I wouldn't rank him ahead of AJG. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, definitely could, but AJG is still very young and is only getting better. Cobb will be a factor but these two can easily still put up big numbers together.  Ranked at number 8 is appropriate. He'll probably drop a little in drafts cause he seems to always be over looked some.

#4 The Jesus

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 12:14 PM

He's a solid pick, for sure.  I have never bought into the RB-RB draft strategy, but Jordy and Antonio Brown make it a viable strategy this year especially if you have an early pick.  I would be thrilled to start out with something like Shady/Bernard/Jordy or Charles/Murray/Antonio.

#5 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 12:22 PM

The obvious IF is Nelson and Rodgers finally both staying healthy for 16 games..but IF that happens, Nelson will be a top 5 fantasy wr and a difference maker. I'd take him as high as early 2nd round, and I think he's a lock for 1200+ yards and 8+ tds

#6 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 02:24 PM

View PostRed Sox Nation, on 02 May 2014 - 12:22 PM, said:

The obvious IF is Nelson and Rodgers finally both staying healthy for 16 games..but IF that happens, Nelson will be a top 5 fantasy wr and a difference maker. I'd take him as high as early 2nd round, and I think he's a lock for 1200+ yards and 8+ tds

Well, that basically happened in 2011 (Rodgers sat out week 17) and Jordy was the #2 standard scoring fantasy WR that season.  I understand that people love the other WR ranked ahead of Nelson but his 2014 upside is just as good as any of the top ranked WR and his floor is pretty damn safe too.

Edited by J.T. Marlin, 02 May 2014 - 02:25 PM.


#7 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 02:39 PM

View PostJ.T. Marlin, on 02 May 2014 - 02:24 PM, said:

View PostRed Sox Nation, on 02 May 2014 - 12:22 PM, said:

The obvious IF is Nelson and Rodgers finally both staying healthy for 16 games..but IF that happens, Nelson will be a top 5 fantasy wr and a difference maker. I'd take him as high as early 2nd round, and I think he's a lock for 1200+ yards and 8+ tds

Well, that basically happened in 2011 (Rodgers sat out week 17) and Jordy was the #2 standard scoring fantasy WR that season.  I understand that people love the other WR ranked ahead of Nelson but his 2014 upside is just as good as any of the top ranked WR and his floor is pretty damn safe too.

Yup, we are on the same page there. Nelson is a true #1 wr playing with an elite qb. With Cobb and Lacy on the team as well, can't divert all eyes on Jordy. Should be a great year for Jordy. Strong buy for me if he's hanging there the end of round 2/early round 3

#8 binhdvu83

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 03:34 PM

I really doubt he will be drafted as a Top 10 WR, but he will finish in the top 10/possibly top 5 if he stays healthy.
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#9 TheToeStompers

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 04:09 PM

His current ADP is wr8 on FFCalc, around the 2-3 turn.  It's gonna be hard to get him at a bargain, but he should produce nicely.
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#10 Shake

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 10:04 PM

View PostTheToeStompers, on 02 May 2014 - 04:09 PM, said:

His current ADP is wr8 on FFCalc, around the 2-3 turn.  It's gonna be hard to get him at a bargain, but he should produce nicely.

Completely agree with this. 3rd round pick most likely...should be in my opinion at worst a top 10 WR assuming he doesn't get hurt. I think he could be top 5 though, he's certainly done it before (2011). Not to mention in standard leagues he was averaging 15 ppg with Aaron Rodgers in the lineup last year.

I'm thinking he should at worst see 75-80 receptions, 1200-1300 yards 8-10 TDs, which is borderline top 10, but his upside is much higher than that. All in on Jordy this year.

Edited by Shake, 02 May 2014 - 10:05 PM.


#11 mmrodri

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 10:07 PM

View PostTheToeStompers, on 02 May 2014 - 04:09 PM, said:

His current ADP is wr8 on FFCalc, around the 2-3 turn.  It's gonna be hard to get him at a bargain, but he should produce nicely.

That depends on your definition of a bargain. If you believe Jordy will finish as a Top 5 WR, getting him as the 8th receiver off the board at the 2/3 turn is great value because it means you can get someone at the top of the 1st (RB or Tron or Peyton) and then grab him and either another stud QB/WR or a second-ish tier RB.

#12 FFCollusion

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 10:34 PM

My initial thought was 'yeah but what did he do when Rodgers AND Cobb were on the field'.
Turns out, even extrapolating the games where Cobb was also on the field with Jordy, he still ended up top 5 for 2013.
I was quite surprised actually.
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#13 PackersFan1979

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 11:30 PM

What appeals about Nelson and Cobb too this season is that in Boykin you have a nifty late round handcuff with some pretty good upside even if they dont go down.

Im not sure what Boykins ADP is yet, but Im assuming he will be a double digit round pickup. Ill draft either Nelson or Cobb with confidence this season if they fall to me, and may reach a little for Boykin in later rounds if I land either of them

#14 GPWMC

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 11:42 PM

View PostJ.T. Marlin, on 02 May 2014 - 02:24 PM, said:

View PostRed Sox Nation, on 02 May 2014 - 12:22 PM, said:

The obvious IF is Nelson and Rodgers finally both staying healthy for 16 games..but IF that happens, Nelson will be a top 5 fantasy wr and a difference maker. I'd take him as high as early 2nd round, and I think he's a lock for 1200+ yards and 8+ tds

Well, that basically happened in 2011 (Rodgers sat out week 17) and Jordy was the #2 standard scoring fantasy WR that season.  I understand that people love the other WR ranked ahead of Nelson but his 2014 upside is just as good as any of the top ranked WR and his floor is pretty damn safe too.

Well in fairness, his last game (the one where you point out Rodgers sat), he scored a ridiculously high number of points. I have no interest in searching the number, but I remember this because I sat him that game and it cost me dearly.

You're right though that he's almost a locked in #1 receiver in what could be (and should have been last year), one of the most prolific offenses to ever grace the field. If Rodgers hadn't gone down, his numbers would have been insane. Next year, with a healthy Rodgers, an even more experienced Cobb drawing coverage, and Eddie Lacey now in the mix, he should be primed for the biggest season of his career.

I'll bite.

#15 GPWMC

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 11:46 PM

Also, Boykin wouldn't be a bad pickup either if he's going as late as people surmise. I see people jumping all over Terrance Williams, Kenny Stills, and Harry Douglas, but Boykin deserves a place in this conversation too. James Jones was at one point (can't remember when) the TD leader on that team. In 3 WR sets with Lacey in the backfield, Boykin will be surely be open.

Damn...how am I only now realizing how awesome Green Bay will be this year...

#16 dmb3684

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Posted 03 May 2014 - 02:01 AM

Im keeping Jordy with my 2nd round pick.

#17 Biddy711

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Posted 03 May 2014 - 12:17 PM

Yeah Jordy is a beast.  As long as he and Rodgers stay healthy, Jordy belongs with the elites. Wouldn't be shocked if both him and Cobb are top 10 in PPR.

#18 Dunder Mifflin Intern

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Posted 03 May 2014 - 08:33 PM

I like Jordy Nelson because he often comes at a bargain (he's the new Pre-hype Roddy White) because of Cobb's presence. Nelson has sure hands and a strong repoirte with Rodgers that's often ignored. I would even take him over Julio and Marshall. He's boringly consistent (Roddy) but he'll give you 1200-1400 yds and 8-9 TDs every year bar injury.
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#19 Sine_cera

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Posted 26 July 2014 - 12:51 PM

Quote

The Green Bay Packers signed WR Jordy Nelson to a four-year, $39 million contract extension.
The deal includes $14.2 million guaranteed and an $11.5 million signing bonus.

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#20 ballfan4141

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Posted 26 July 2014 - 09:07 PM

he came at a discount last year and would have even done better if Rodgers didn't get hurt.




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