Jump to content

Visit Rotoworld.comRotoworld Forums  
Rotoworld: MLB | NFL | NBA | NHL | NASCAR | CFB
Sports Talk Blogs: PFT | HBT | PBT | CFT | PHT
  Visit NBCSports.com

- - - - -

Gavin Floyd 2014 OutlookI'll see you on the dark side of the moon.


  • Please log in to reply
88 replies to this topic

#1 Rabbit Maranville

Rabbit Maranville

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 573 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ouagadougou

Posted 04 May 2014 - 08:21 AM

Set to be activated today by the Braves. Coming off of TJS, but he was always a fantastic starter for Chicago. Always had more value in real life than in fantasy, but that could change in Atlanta.

I'd love to see him bounce Harang from the rotation, but the expectation is that he'll be used out of the pen,

Isn't Hale already their long man? How will Floyd then be used?
7-team Dynasty H2H
------------------------------
C-  Ossee Schreckengost
1B- Hee-Seop Choi
2B- Bo Hart  
3B- Doug Strange
SS- Matt Stairs
OF- Quinton McCracken
OF- Nemo Leibold
OF- William Beane
UTIL- Kevin Young
BN- Tony Womack, Abner Dalrymple
SP- Luis Tiant, Dustin Nippert, Rick Ankiel, Charles Radbourn, Bea Arthur, Bob Walk
RP- Mike Fetters, The Hamburglar, Byung-Hyun Kim, Joe Table

DL- Mark Prior

#2 PPolanco

PPolanco

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,693 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 04 May 2014 - 08:56 AM

I drafted him as a DL stash on draft day and may have to drop him now. He'll surely get a rotation spot eventually (likely Harang's) but who knows how long that will take.

I am in love with the move to the NL and am confident he will have steady value once he's in the rotation... but not being able to make pickups while he's on my DL is a bit much :ph34r:
I back the realest and original Polanco :-)

#3 vmo1059

vmo1059

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 999 posts

Posted 04 May 2014 - 10:41 AM

Floyd will get the start Tuesday in place of Santana.

#4 My Dinner With Andre

My Dinner With Andre

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,514 posts

Posted 04 May 2014 - 10:43 AM

View PostRabbit Maranville, on 04 May 2014 - 08:21 AM, said:

Set to be activated today by the Braves. Coming off of TJS, but he was always a fantastic starter for Chicago. Always had more value in real life than in fantasy, but that could change in Atlanta.

I'd love to see him bounce Harang from the rotation, but the expectation is that he'll be used out of the pen,

Isn't Hale already their long man? How will Floyd then be used?

Am I reading this correctly? You're saying he was 'fantastic' in Chicago?

#5 taobball

taobball

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,872 posts

Posted 04 May 2014 - 10:45 AM

View Postvmo1059, on 04 May 2014 - 10:41 AM, said:

Floyd will get the start Tuesday in place of Santana.

Is this speculation? I haven't seen a report.
2014 Fantasy Baseball - Windy City Heaters
16 Team H2H Points (Batters GP Max and Pitchers GS Max)
C: Yan Gomes / 1B: Victor Martinez / 2B: Kolten Wong / 3B: Martin Prado / SS: Javier Baez
OF: Adam Jones / OF: Jay Bruce / OF: Christian Yelich / UT: Desmond Jennings, Ben: Arismendy Alcantara
SP: Chris Sale, Garrett Richards, Jeff Samardzija, Jake Arrieta, Tyson Ross, Homer Bailey, Danny Salazar, Rick Porcello
RP: Jonathan Broxton, Delin Betances, Ken Giles
DL: George Springer

2014 Fantasy Baseball - Golden Domers
20 Team H2H Cats
C: A.J Pierzynksi / 1B: Eric Hosmer / 2B: Brad Miller / 3B: Evan Longoria / SS: Starlin Castro
OF: Matt Holliday / OF: Jayson Werth / OF: Leonys Martin / UT: Avisail Garcia
SP: Adam Wainwright, Sonny Gray, Brandon Beachy, Corey Kluber, Drew Smyly, Yordano Ventura, Martin Perez
RP: Huston Street, Chad Quallis, Pedro Strop
Bench: Kolten Wong, Ike Davis, Corey Dickerson, Mike Olt

#6 PPolanco

PPolanco

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,693 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 04 May 2014 - 10:56 AM

View Posttaobball, on 04 May 2014 - 10:45 AM, said:

View Postvmo1059, on 04 May 2014 - 10:41 AM, said:

Floyd will get the start Tuesday in place of Santana.

Is this speculation? I haven't seen a report.

hurrah!!!

Eric Graff @TomahawkTalk

Santana gonna miss his next start, Floyd starting Tuesday for him, Simmons off today for "personal reasons", Ian Thomas to Gwinnett. #Barves

David O'Brien @ajcbraves

#Braves will start Floyd on Tuesday, Santana has bruised thumb and hope to start him Saturday


Glad this came out today, was definitely about to drop him on Monday morning :P. The Braves are quite reasonable and I doubt they pull him from the rotation if he's half-decent. It's his 1st start back so I won't be rolling with him but praying he does well. They signed him to start and they realize he may start slow... if he's even serviceable I expect him to stick in the rotation (and bump Harang).. If Harang bounces back next start and Santana returns healthy, I expect them to move to a temporary 6-man rotation (The Braves have done it each of the last 2 seasons).

As far as him being "great" in CWS... he was underrated that's all I'll say. His stats never matched his peripherals but he was still serviceable. Now in the NL, the 4th overall pick from 2001 has a chance to be a TRUE sleeper that nobody is talking about.

Edited by PPolanco, 04 May 2014 - 11:02 AM.

I back the realest and original Polanco :-)

#7 Posting In The Clutch

Posting In The Clutch

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,176 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Chicago

Posted 04 May 2014 - 11:35 AM

View PostMy Dinner With Andre, on 04 May 2014 - 10:43 AM, said:

View PostRabbit Maranville, on 04 May 2014 - 08:21 AM, said:

Set to be activated today by the Braves. Coming off of TJS, but he was always a fantastic starter for Chicago. Always had more value in real life than in fantasy, but that could change in Atlanta.

I'd love to see him bounce Harang from the rotation, but the expectation is that he'll be used out of the pen,

Isn't Hale already their long man? How will Floyd then be used?

Am I reading this correctly? You're saying he was 'fantastic' in Chicago?

Haha, was thinking the exact same thing when I read that.
I remember one evening in the pouring rain
And in my heart there was an aching pain
Fare thee well, my honey, fare thee well

#8 Rabbit Maranville

Rabbit Maranville

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 573 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ouagadougou

Posted 04 May 2014 - 11:52 AM

View PostPosting In The Clutch, on 04 May 2014 - 11:35 AM, said:

View PostMy Dinner With Andre, on 04 May 2014 - 10:43 AM, said:

View PostRabbit Maranville, on 04 May 2014 - 08:21 AM, said:

Set to be activated today by the Braves. Coming off of TJS, but he was always a fantastic starter for Chicago. Always had more value in real life than in fantasy, but that could change in Atlanta.

I'd love to see him bounce Harang from the rotation, but the expectation is that he'll be used out of the pen,

Isn't Hale already their long man? How will Floyd then be used?

Am I reading this correctly? You're saying he was 'fantastic' in Chicago?

Haha, was thinking the exact same thing when I read that.

Yeah, fantastic may be a bit much. But from 2009-2011, he was worth at least 3.4 fWAR every season. I think pitching in Chicago really caused him to be underrated, similar to Quintana now.

Edited by Rabbit Maranville, 04 May 2014 - 11:52 AM.

7-team Dynasty H2H
------------------------------
C-  Ossee Schreckengost
1B- Hee-Seop Choi
2B- Bo Hart  
3B- Doug Strange
SS- Matt Stairs
OF- Quinton McCracken
OF- Nemo Leibold
OF- William Beane
UTIL- Kevin Young
BN- Tony Womack, Abner Dalrymple
SP- Luis Tiant, Dustin Nippert, Rick Ankiel, Charles Radbourn, Bea Arthur, Bob Walk
RP- Mike Fetters, The Hamburglar, Byung-Hyun Kim, Joe Table

DL- Mark Prior

#9 Extelleron

Extelleron

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 221 posts

Posted 04 May 2014 - 12:33 PM

He was very good in Chicago during 2009-2011 *if* you believe his FIP/xFIP over that timeframe is more representative of his performance than ERA. But over that 3 year stretch he pretty dramatically underperformed his advanced metrics, and he never had a sub-4 ERA despite a ~3.6 xFIP. Now, 3 years later and removed from surgery, I would have very low expectations that he is actually a fantasy-relevant starter.
---10 Team H2H---
C: Buster Posey
1B: Anthony Rizzo
2B: Robinson Cano
2B/SS: Derek Jeter
SS: Andrelton Simmons
3B: Miguel Cabrera
1B/3B: Mark Teixeira
OF: Jose Bautista
OF: Matt Kemp
OF: Jayson Werth
OF: Desmond Jennings
DH: Victor Martinez

SP: Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Julio Teheran, Matt Garza, Nate Eovaldi, Ian Kennedy
RP: Koji Uehara, Joakim Soria, Addison Reed
DL: Jason Kipnis, Michael Pineda

#10 Rabbit Maranville

Rabbit Maranville

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 573 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ouagadougou

Posted 04 May 2014 - 12:43 PM

View PostExtelleron, on 04 May 2014 - 12:33 PM, said:

He was very good in Chicago during 2009-2011 *if* you believe his FIP/xFIP over that timeframe is more representative of his performance than ERA. But over that 3 year stretch he pretty dramatically underperformed his advanced metrics, and he never had a sub-4 ERA despite a ~3.6 xFIP. Now, 3 years later and removed from surgery, I would have very low expectations that he is actually a fantasy-relevant starter.

Pitching in the Cell is the reason I used fWAR. Going from Chicago to Atlanta should decrease his ERA significantly, and a return to pitching at the level he pitched at from 09-11 would translate to some rosterable stats down in Atlanta.
7-team Dynasty H2H
------------------------------
C-  Ossee Schreckengost
1B- Hee-Seop Choi
2B- Bo Hart  
3B- Doug Strange
SS- Matt Stairs
OF- Quinton McCracken
OF- Nemo Leibold
OF- William Beane
UTIL- Kevin Young
BN- Tony Womack, Abner Dalrymple
SP- Luis Tiant, Dustin Nippert, Rick Ankiel, Charles Radbourn, Bea Arthur, Bob Walk
RP- Mike Fetters, The Hamburglar, Byung-Hyun Kim, Joe Table

DL- Mark Prior

#11 96mnc

96mnc

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,284 posts

Posted 05 May 2014 - 03:20 AM

I think it's unrealistic to expect him to return to his preTJ form in 2014.  I generally project guys at about 75% - 80% of their pre injury form the first year back.

#12 PPolanco

PPolanco

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,693 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 05 May 2014 - 12:25 PM

View Post96mnc, on 05 May 2014 - 03:20 AM, said:

I think it's unrealistic to expect him to return to his preTJ form in 2014.  I generally project guys at about 75% - 80% of their pre injury form the first year back.

Agree if their situation hasn't changed. Leaving the AL for the NL East and going to his first pitcher's park, he's one of the toughest guys to project.

I think he could rly surprise. Again, no way I'm starting him tomorrow just watching and hoping he keeps the job
I back the realest and original Polanco :-)

#13 Nightrain

Nightrain

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 552 posts

Posted 05 May 2014 - 07:23 PM

View PostPPolanco, on 05 May 2014 - 12:25 PM, said:

View Post96mnc, on 05 May 2014 - 03:20 AM, said:

I think it's unrealistic to expect him to return to his preTJ form in 2014.  I generally project guys at about 75% - 80% of their pre injury form the first year back.

Agree if their situation hasn't changed. Leaving the AL for the NL East and going to his first pitcher's park, he's one of the toughest guys to project.

I think he could rly surprise. Again, no way I'm starting him tomorrow just watching and hoping he keeps the job

I would agree. He could be very sneaky. From one of the most hitter friendly parks, where he was pretty good for a number of years. Though not fantastic like someone said earlier. To ATL in the NL, that could mean more k's and decrease in HR that would lead to decrease in era and whip. Intriguing, but would have to wait and see his form.
Yahoo 14 Team H2H 14x14
Batters Stat Categories:  , (H), (1B), (2B), (3B), (HR), (RBI), (SB), (BB), (K), (TB), (E), (AVG), (OPS)
Pitchers Stat Categories: (IP), (W), (L), (CG), (SHO), (SV), (ER), (HR), (BB), (K), (ERA), (WHIP), (K/9), (QS)

C Brian McCann, Devin Mesoraco
1B Paul Goldschmidt
2B Jason Kipnis, Brian Dozier
3B Aramis Ramirez, Jedd Gyorko
SS Ben Zobrist
Of Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Matt Kemp
UT Albert Pujols
BN Kole Calhoun OF, Angel Pagan OF, Javier Baez SS/2B

SP Michael Wacha, Jeff Samardzija, Zach Wheeler, Alex Wood, Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross, Yordany Ventura, Jacob Degrom, Garrett Richards, James Paxton

#14 PPolanco

PPolanco

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,693 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 06 May 2014 - 04:49 PM

While we're waiting for tonight's start, stumbled upon this discussion of his contract.

It is incentive-laden with games started bonuses. The escalators only really begin at 21-28 games started (he gets a bonus for every start in that range) so for now if he pitches well it's not an issue. But I hate these games played bonuses, so much sketchier than performance bonuses. Realistically, the Braves have financial incentive to limit his starts under 21 games played. I'm sure if he's pitching well it is absolutely not a problem and they would love to pay him but it is something to monitor.

http://www.talkingch...-his-incentives

This is an article discussing what to expect.
http://www.talkingch...rom-gavin-floyd

I wonder what his pitch count is tonight
I back the realest and original Polanco :-)

#15 PPolanco

PPolanco

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,693 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 06 May 2014 - 07:45 PM

QS 1st game back. beast
I back the realest and original Polanco :-)

#16 PPolanco

PPolanco

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,693 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 07 May 2014 - 05:51 AM

Excellent news:


David O'Brien @ajcbraves

#Braves Fredi G said he looked forward to Floyd pitching again in five or six days, and left it at that. Wouldn't say anything more on plans

Was pretty obvious after how good he looked but still nice to have quick confirmation. My guess is a temporary 6-man rotation. These things sort themselves out and I'm sure the Braves are stoked. If both Harang and Floyd keep pitching well the Braves won't complain.
I back the realest and original Polanco :-)

#17 bravos89

bravos89

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 888 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 07 May 2014 - 08:43 AM

View PostPPolanco, on 07 May 2014 - 05:51 AM, said:

Excellent news:


David O'Brien @ajcbraves

#Braves Fredi G said he looked forward to Floyd pitching again in five or six days, and left it at that. Wouldn't say anything more on plans

Was pretty obvious after how good he looked but still nice to have quick confirmation. My guess is a temporary 6-man rotation. These things sort themselves out and I'm sure the Braves are stoked. If both Harang and Floyd keep pitching well the Braves won't complain.

That'd be interesting. Would certainly slightly diminish the fantasy value of the other Braves starters. For some reason, I just have a feeling that this is going to end with Wood getting moved back to the pen. I don't know why but that seems like it would just be a very Fredi Gonzalez thing to do.
C-D. Mesoraco
1B-F. Freeman
2B-I. Kinsler
3B-T. Frazier
SS-I. Desmond
MI-J. Altuve
CI-A. Pujols
OF- M.Trout, B. Harper, C. Dickerson, J. Martinez, J. Harrison
UTIL-O. Arcia
BN-K. Vargas

SP-C. Hamels, J. Cueto, A. Cobb, S. Kazmir, A. Wood, J. Paxton, M. Fiers, M. Shoemaker
RP- K. Uehara, H. Street, C. Allen
DL-A. Cashner

#18 crotchcrickets

crotchcrickets

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,681 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 07 May 2014 - 08:47 AM

i wouldnt take anything from this start tbh.  the cards are a terrible hitting team

#19 RotoRaysfan

RotoRaysfan

    All-Time Great

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,462 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Rotobronco

Posted 07 May 2014 - 08:47 AM

People who've been around know of my love for Floyd from his 2009-11 years.  

He'll never be an ace because his 4-seam FB is straight and hittable.  But his curve slider and change were plus pitches when he was healthy.  His other big issue from those years was a lack of mental toughness - he would cruise for 3-4 innings but crumble when adversity struck.  And of course, playing in one of the HR-friendliest parks was a huge cap to his already limited to SP3-ceiling.  His xFIP hinted that if he ever moved to the NL he would be a sneaky SP3 value at WW/endgame prices.  By 2012 velo declines and loss of command hinted at the eventual TJS he needed at the start of last year.  

Now that he's back from TJS, where does his future lie?

The positives:

1.  He has his velo & movement back - hit 93 consistently and a couple of 94-95 readings.   The slider and change were again his best pitches.  He also mixed the 2-seam to get his GB's.  

2.  Pitching in not just a good home park, but gets to face the NL East (which surging Marlins aside, with an injury-riddled Nats O, is a huge upgrade opposition-wise).  

3.  His rotation spot looks very secure by the depth chart analysis and most importantly by Fredi Gonzalez himself.  

4.  Because he is 30, no IP limits are usually in place (that's reserved for younger pitchers as the norm).    Old enough to be past issues of IP limits, young enough to still have his physical tools.  


The cautions:

1.  His 4-seamer is still his worst pitch.   I doubt I throw him @ CIN/ARI/COL (duh on COL).   Never will be a huge ace with that even with huge NL advantage.  

2.  He won't have complete skills recovery until next year - his fine control is the last thing that takes 15-18 months to come back (velo is back at 12 months but regaining the fine control is the X factor).  

Still, one look at his stuff, the league switch and the home park advantage, for a WW claim getting a potential top 40-ish SP (K's won't push him any higher IMO) for the ROS, at the ultra-low cost, well, easy buy & hold right now.   Can't wait to see his next start.
TBD Baseball 2011 League Champion - 20 team, 7x7 (5x5 plus 2B+3B, BB, QS & Holds) Dynasty - Division winner, and squeaked through playoff finals!
AL-only 5x5, Roto - 2010 & 2011 league champion
RotoWood 2011 League Runner-Up - Mixed Roto regular season / H2H playoff 5x5 format - 3rd place reg. season, lost in finals

Been a blast everyone - take care, and remember to abide by the CoC, and to help your fellow community out - it's what's made the Forum community great!

P.S. My passion is primarily FBB - you'd LOL at my football track record!

#20 spaghetti

spaghetti

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,680 posts

Posted 07 May 2014 - 08:58 AM

Thanks RotoRaysfan. Was going to ask how he looked last night since I missed his start. I only saw his highlights and his fastball didn't look very good, but his breaking stuff was working.




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users