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Andre Drummond 2014-15 Season OutlookThe new king of punt-ft


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#1 aaa1

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 01:51 AM

For a punt ft build, Drummond is an obvious favorite.

I'm expecting a huge year out of Drummond with Stan Van Gundy building a team around him ala Howard in Orlando. I'm fully expecting one of Smith/Monroe to be gone before the deadline (maybe sooner), and for Drummond's numbers to rise with more opportunity.

The biggest area to watch IMO is Drummond's scoring. According to synergy stats, Drummond got the vast majority of his points (like nearly all of them) off putbacks and lobs. Extremely infrequent post ups. If Van Gundy actually runs plays for him, he could see a significant uptick in points. Drum gave us ~13ppg without ever really having his number called last year, even a few extra plays per game designed for him could boost his ppg in a meaningful way for fantasy purposes. And it could also give him the confidence to take that next step as a potential franchise player.

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#2 Code of Hammurabi

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 09:28 AM

Sadly, in roto leagues, Drummond is so toxic at the Ft line that he is almost unplayable. Of course if you are punting ft% he is an asset. It’s a lot more difficult to punt any one cat and win a roto league. Part of the problem is that I don’t see enough increase in scoring for Drummond to make me look past his sickening ft%. For me to consider taking the plunge and looking past his major deficiency I would have to feel good about him averaging 18-20 ppg which I don’t think happens this season.
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#3 s-kayos

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 11:56 AM

Don't remind me how awesome Drummond was... last season I was so dominant because I was able to get so many value bigs with late draft picks like Andre Drummond, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, and DeAndre Jordan because people didn't know how good they were yet and people were busy drafting Dwight Howard and Larry Sanders first...


But now, people know how good he is :(

I'll have to find my fantasy gold elsewhere. I'm looking forward to seeing what Drummond does anyways. I'm always working on worst case scenario, so I'm not banking on Monroe leaving or getting rid of Smith, but if that happens I certainly agree that coupled with his potential, his value will increase.

Edited by s-kayos, 23 June 2014 - 11:59 AM.

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#4 Denbo32

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 03:35 PM

Will running plays for him hurt his crazy high fg%.  As noted most if his points came from alley ops and put backs, those are the highest % plays ever.

Not saying his fg% drops to below 50% but it should dip if they run plays for him

#5 RedDogNamedClippers

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 11:49 PM

View PostDenbo32, on 23 June 2014 - 03:35 PM, said:

Will running plays for him hurt his crazy high fg%.  As noted most if his points came from alley ops and put backs, those are the highest % plays ever.

Not saying his fg% drops to below 50% but it should dip if they run plays for him

So if they run plays for him, he would be like a Cousins lite?
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#6 aaa1

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Posted 24 June 2014 - 03:37 AM

View PostRedDogNamedClippers, on 23 June 2014 - 11:49 PM, said:

So if they run plays for him, he would be like a Cousins lite?

He'll never get as many dimes as Cousins does, and even if the offense was designed around Drummond I dont think he would come close to Cousins' ppg. Cousins put up 22.7 ppg and 2.9 apg in 32mpg, those are ridiculous numbers for a center.

But they are similar in their high steal rate. Drummond, Cousins, Millsap, Davis, Noah and of course Thaddeus Young are all that upper tier of stealing bigs, which is one of my favorite out-of-position contributions.

Edited by aaa1, 24 June 2014 - 03:37 AM.

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#7 kobedontpass

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Posted 24 June 2014 - 08:55 PM

View PostRedDogNamedClippers, on 23 June 2014 - 11:49 PM, said:

View PostDenbo32, on 23 June 2014 - 03:35 PM, said:

Will running plays for him hurt his crazy high fg%.  As noted most if his points came from alley ops and put backs, those are the highest % plays ever.

Not saying his fg% drops to below 50% but it should dip if they run plays for him

So if they run plays for him, he would be like a Cousins lite?

Would you run the offense through DeAndre Jordan? How would that look?

#8 aaa1

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Posted 25 June 2014 - 04:53 AM

View PostDenbo32, on 23 June 2014 - 03:35 PM, said:

Will running plays for him hurt his crazy high fg%.  As noted most if his points came from alley ops and put backs, those are the highest % plays ever.

Not saying his fg% drops to below 50% but it should dip if they run plays for him

Yes, you are correct to assume a dip in FG% with increased opportunity.

But in terms of fantasy value, the increased attempts will actually increase his impact on the FG% category, even if the percentage goes down a bit. A guy that hits 63% on 9 attempts per has less FG% impact than a guy that hits 59% on 12 attempts per. And when you consider the added value in the points category, increased attempts are only a good thing for Drummond.

Edited by aaa1, 25 June 2014 - 04:56 AM.

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#9 s-kayos

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Posted 25 June 2014 - 01:31 PM

View Postkobedontpass, on 24 June 2014 - 08:55 PM, said:

View PostRedDogNamedClippers, on 23 June 2014 - 11:49 PM, said:

View PostDenbo32, on 23 June 2014 - 03:35 PM, said:

Will running plays for him hurt his crazy high fg%.  As noted most if his points came from alley ops and put backs, those are the highest % plays ever.

Not saying his fg% drops to below 50% but it should dip if they run plays for him

So if they run plays for him, he would be like a Cousins lite?

Would you run the offense through DeAndre Jordan? How would that look?

So you're saying players like Dwight Howard shouldn't have plays called for them? How would that look?
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#10 YankeeJAK

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Posted 25 June 2014 - 03:03 PM

View Postaaa1, on 25 June 2014 - 04:53 AM, said:

View PostDenbo32, on 23 June 2014 - 03:35 PM, said:

Will running plays for him hurt his crazy high fg%.  As noted most if his points came from alley ops and put backs, those are the highest % plays ever.

Not saying his fg% drops to below 50% but it should dip if they run plays for him

Yes, you are correct to assume a dip in FG% with increased opportunity.

But in terms of fantasy value, the increased attempts will actually increase his impact on the FG% category, even if the percentage goes down a bit. A guy that hits 63% on 9 attempts per has less FG% impact than a guy that hits 59% on 12 attempts per. And when you consider the added value in the points category, increased attempts are only a good thing for Drummond.

Agreed, and to add to this...

Forgetting for a moment the potential added shots he gains from plays run for him, if he works on his offensive game around the rim, he should make more of the easy shots he misses now. I watched a lot of Drummond and the Pistons last year, and quite often he put up some bad shots off of rebounds, only to get the offensive board and put it back up. This never bothered me because he was getting an additional rebound, but I do think he could improve a bit in that regard.

I think part of it is how bad he is at the stripe- some of his putback layup attempts were rushed or off balanced because he's trying to get it up quick and avoid contact. Who knows, maybe it's in our best interest as fantasy owners to sacrifice a couple percentage points from the field in exchange for him taking fewer free throws haha. Just an observation, and a guess that he'll gain a softer touch as he grows in the league and becomes a bigger part of the offense.
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#11 tremixt

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Posted 25 June 2014 - 03:16 PM

View Posts-kayos, on 25 June 2014 - 01:31 PM, said:

View Postkobedontpass, on 24 June 2014 - 08:55 PM, said:

View PostRedDogNamedClippers, on 23 June 2014 - 11:49 PM, said:

View PostDenbo32, on 23 June 2014 - 03:35 PM, said:

Will running plays for him hurt his crazy high fg%.  As noted most if his points came from alley ops and put backs, those are the highest % plays ever.

Not saying his fg% drops to below 50% but it should dip if they run plays for him

So if they run plays for him, he would be like a Cousins lite?

Would you run the offense through DeAndre Jordan? How would that look?

So you're saying players like Dwight Howard shouldn't have plays called for them? How would that look?

DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard have similar skills on offense?

#12 s-kayos

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Posted 25 June 2014 - 03:19 PM

View Posttremixt, on 25 June 2014 - 03:16 PM, said:

View Posts-kayos, on 25 June 2014 - 01:31 PM, said:

View Postkobedontpass, on 24 June 2014 - 08:55 PM, said:

View PostRedDogNamedClippers, on 23 June 2014 - 11:49 PM, said:

View PostDenbo32, on 23 June 2014 - 03:35 PM, said:

Will running plays for him hurt his crazy high fg%.  As noted most if his points came from alley ops and put backs, those are the highest % plays ever.

Not saying his fg% drops to below 50% but it should dip if they run plays for him

So if they run plays for him, he would be like a Cousins lite?

Would you run the offense through DeAndre Jordan? How would that look?

So you're saying players like Dwight Howard shouldn't have plays called for them? How would that look?

DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard have similar skills on offense?

That's pretty much the point. Drummond is closer (or at least trying to be closer) to Dwight Howard than DeAndre Jordan.

The initial analogy to DeAndre Jordan doesn't make sense.

No one would run plays for DJ because he's a scrapper and a glass cleaner, not someone who is working on his post moves and mid-range like Drummond is.

Drummond is already a better scorer in his second year than DJ has been in 4 seasons of starting with significant time. So I don't really see how DeAndre Jordan was a comparison in the first place.

Edited by s-kayos, 25 June 2014 - 03:26 PM.

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#13 kobedontpass

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Posted 25 June 2014 - 09:51 PM

View Posts-kayos, on 25 June 2014 - 03:19 PM, said:

That's pretty much the point. Drummond is closer (or at least trying to be closer) to Dwight Howard than DeAndre Jordan.

The initial analogy to DeAndre Jordan doesn't make sense.

No one would run plays for DJ because he's a scrapper and a glass cleaner, not someone who is working on his post moves and mid-range like Drummond is.

Drummond is already a better scorer in his second year than DJ has been in 4 seasons of starting with significant time. So I don't really see how DeAndre Jordan was a comparison in the first place.

I remember two seasons ago people said the same thing about DJ. He made a few hook shots and other assorted post moves in pre-season and everyone started hyping up the huge leap in his game, only to never see those moves again.

It's not saying much if AD is closer to Howard than DJ. D12 himself has been "working" on his post move (yes singular) for 10 years and he's still as predictable and robotic as ever which is why he gets destroyed by Bargnani.

I'd be very wary of this "post game" and "mid range" that AD is supposedly working on and I'll believe it when I see it.

#14 flippy

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Posted 25 June 2014 - 10:39 PM

which player will be the best partner for him in the first round? lebron-drummond? wall-drummond?
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#15 s-kayos

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Posted 25 June 2014 - 10:56 PM

View Postkobedontpass, on 25 June 2014 - 09:51 PM, said:

View Posts-kayos, on 25 June 2014 - 03:19 PM, said:

That's pretty much the point. Drummond is closer (or at least trying to be closer) to Dwight Howard than DeAndre Jordan.

The initial analogy to DeAndre Jordan doesn't make sense.

No one would run plays for DJ because he's a scrapper and a glass cleaner, not someone who is working on his post moves and mid-range like Drummond is.

Drummond is already a better scorer in his second year than DJ has been in 4 seasons of starting with significant time. So I don't really see how DeAndre Jordan was a comparison in the first place.

I remember two seasons ago people said the same thing about DJ. He made a few hook shots and other assorted post moves in pre-season and everyone started hyping up the huge leap in his game, only to never see those moves again.

It's not saying much if AD is closer to Howard than DJ. D12 himself has been "working" on his post move (yes singular) for 10 years and he's still as predictable and robotic as ever which is why he gets destroyed by Bargnani.

I'd be very wary of this "post game" and "mid range" that AD is supposedly working on and I'll believe it when I see it.

That might be true, but it still doesn't make sense to think that the simple idea of calling plays for Drummond is somehow ridiculous because "you wouldn't run plays through DeAndre Jordan, how would that look?"

You might as well be saying don't run plays for Dwight Howard, it's an equally ridiculous notion. If you have a good player they can find ways to score. You already admitted D12 doesn't have a bevy of post moves, and yet he still had offenses run through him on several different teams.

Quote

Would you run the offense through DeAndre Jordan? How would that look?  


So what is that statement really achieving?
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#16 Denbo32

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Posted 27 June 2014 - 11:30 AM

I'm in the camp of I'll believe it when I see it.



#17 kobedontpass

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Posted 27 June 2014 - 11:07 PM

View Posts-kayos, on 25 June 2014 - 10:56 PM, said:

So what is that statement really achieving?

That was more of a response to the idea in the first post that there would be a "significant uptick" in points if they started running a lot of plays for him. I think he'd have to have at least one reliable move. I'm of the school of thought that until he shows something more, he'd lose his elite efficiency (I'm not the only one that's said that)

I feel the same about the supposed mid-range game he is working on. I'll believe it when I see it.

#18 s-kayos

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Posted 28 June 2014 - 12:00 AM

View Postkobedontpass, on 27 June 2014 - 11:07 PM, said:

View Posts-kayos, on 25 June 2014 - 10:56 PM, said:

So what is that statement really achieving?

That was more of a response to the idea in the first post that there would be a "significant uptick" in points if they started running a lot of plays for him. I think he'd have to have at least one reliable move. I'm of the school of thought that until he shows something more, he'd lose his elite efficiency (I'm not the only one that's said that)

I feel the same about the supposed mid-range game he is working on. I'll believe it when I see it.

I agree I don't expect any significant uptick in points, but to say that you can't run plays for an offensively limited big man - I don't agree with.

If that was the case, no big men would've ever developed in the NBA because no coaches would run plays to give them opportunities. Dwight Howard being a prime example of someone who developed as they gave him the opportunity, so too can Drummond if he develops the skill to go with his size and talent.

I never said his supposed mid-range game is a finished product, but the fact that the Pistons organization as a whole has him working with Hakeem Olajuwon on his post moves indicates to me that they want him to become a bigger part of the offense, and as such I wouldn't mind if they run more plays for the big man.

That's all I'm saying. It shouldn't be some ridiculous notion for them to do that.
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#19 aaa1

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 06:03 AM

Wanted to bump this thread now that the Pistons have had some time to construct their new roster.

They added a couple shooters in Jodie Meeks and Caron Butler, as well as a PG option to compete with Jennings in Augustin. Not world changing additions, but I definitely think they upped their outside shooting and depth.

And since Josh Smith is proving to be untradeable, Monroe might be on the move. Im a Josh Smith hater, but moving back to the power forward spot under the tutelage of S Van Gandy could do wonders for him and the Pistons. A Drummond/Smith front court is nasty on defense despite obvious FT concerns.

Based on that roster movement and the likelihood of Monroe leaving and Smith staying, I'd like to update my early projections:

16 ppg, 14.5 rpg (8.9 drpg, 5.6 orpg), 1.2 spg, 1.8 bpg, 60+%FG, 12 FGAPG, 36 mpg

If Monroe ends up sticking around, I'd bump some of these down. But I'm expecting a Godzilla type year out of Drummond if the lineup is something like:

Jennings, Augustin, Bynum
Meeks, Caldwell-Pope
Butler,  Singler, Cartier Martin
Smith, Jerebko
Drummond, Gray

Edited by aaa1, 22 July 2014 - 06:04 AM.

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#20 Tonimn

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 06:11 AM

Drummond is a %FT killer.
Never %FT killers in my Fantasy teams.

Edited by Tonimn, 22 July 2014 - 06:11 AM.





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