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RB Data AnalysisSeasonal RB Data - TD Dependency?


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#1 Robrain

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 04:21 AM

I put this together as a tool last offseason to aid me in making sense of things such as how many RB's are actual highly TD dependent (but it can be useful for other purposes as well).  It provides a new/different way of looking at RB stats from a "big picture" point-of-view.

The theory is, TD's are a crapshoot.  Because of this, it might be important to note which player's fantasy value is heavily dependent on the amount of TDs they score, as opposed to the other stats that generate the rest of their fantasy value.

Part of the goal was to see if this tool could potentially help weed out some miscellaneous "high risk" players for drafting purposes.

Please note, this is by no means complete.  At the time I was thinking this up, I worked on it just enough to get what I needed from it in time for last year's pre-preason draft for the Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League.


SCORING SETTINGS:

THIS IS IMPORTANT...

For this, the scoring settings are 10 yards = 1 point, and 1 reception = 1/2 point. (0.5 PPR)

TDs = 6 points


Now, when you look at the data, what you'll see is multiple lines like so:

2001: 260 carries / 1,382 rush yards / 12 rush TDs / 83 recs /   765 rec yards / 9 rec TD = 2,562 / 382.2

The first number is the season/year.  In this example, the 2001 season.  Next is carries / rushing yards / rushing TDs / receptions / receiving yards / receiving TDs.  That should all be pretty obvious and self-explanatory.

The important part to understand is the two numbers on the right side of the equal ( = ) sign.

The first number (in this case, 2,562) represents that player's fantasy production for that season MINUS TDs.

The second number (in this case 382.2) represents that player's total fantasy points for that season, INCLUDING TDs.

Now, why am I using a slightly different metric for the two numbers?  Basically, it was for simplicity's sake while I was inputting / calculating all the data.

If 10 yards = 1 point

and 1 reception = 0.5 points

Then essentially:

1 reception = 5 yards

See how easy that makes it to calculate?

So in the case of:

2001: 260 carries / 1,382 rush yards / 12 rush TDs / 83 recs /   765 rec yards / 9 rec TD = 2,562 / 382.2

We simply add 1,382 (rushing yards) + 765 (receiving yards) + (83 multiplied by 5) = 2,562.

1,382 + 765 + 415 = 2,562

What that essentially does is it converts receptions into their equivalent value in yards so we have a single combined number to look at.  Makes it easy. (note: you can calculate for full-point PPR by multiplying by 10 instead of 5 in the above sequence)

So here is the incomplete (but in my opinion, highly useful) data I compiled last offseason:

http://pastebin.com/USBCLEiN

This is a secondary tool which was some of the same data sorted from most carries to fewest carries in a single season:

http://pastebin.com/DcBjSrMZ

Edited by Robrain, 03 July 2014 - 04:24 AM.

2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Josh Gordon..........(09.13)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - Ifeanyi Momah........(14.02)
RB2: Toby Gerhart...........(02.02)............. RB - Shonn Greene.........(UD.FA)
WR1: Cordarrelle Patterson..(04.09)............. RB - LeGarrette Blount....(09.06)
WR2: Reggie Wayne...........(07.13)............. RB - Bryce Brown..........(11.13)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Jonathan Grimes......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - Theo Riddick.........(15.13)
FLEX2: Tavon Austin.........(10.02)............. RB - Lorezno Taliaferro...(16.02)

#2 Robrain

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 04:42 AM

A good example of this would be Darren Sproles:

  • Darren Sproles:


  • 2012:  48 carries /   244 rush yards /  1 rush TD  / 75 recs /   667 rec yards / 7 rec TD = 1,286 /


  • 2011:  87 carries /   603 rush yards /  2 rush TDs / 86 recs /   710 rec yards / 7 rec TD = 1,743 /


  • 2010:  50 carries /   267 rush yards /  0 rush TDs / 59 recs /   520 rec yards / 2 rec TD = 1,082 /


  • 2009:  93 carries /   343 rush yards /  3 rush TDs / 45 recs /   497 rec yards / 4 rec TD = 1,065 /


  • 2008:  61 carries /   330 rush yards /  1 rush TD  / 29 recs /   342 rec yards / 5 rec TD =   817 /


  • 2007:  37 carries /   164 rush yards /  2 rush TDs / 10 recs /    31 rec yards / 0 rec TD =   245 /


  • 2006:  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------


  • 2005:   8 carries /    50 rush yards /  0 rush TDs /  3 recs /    10 rec yards / 0 rec TD =    75 /

The severe lack of carries by Darren Sproles (never even reaching 100 in a single season) is the focal point here.  Even during his best season where he had 86 receptions for 710 yards (which practically no RB ever attains), the lack of carries severely capped his ceiling.  His TD production buoyed his fantasy value, but if that were to fluctuate for any reason, his fantasy production would sink pretty quickly.

In 2012, he has 8 TDs to buoy his fantasy value.  What would his fantasy value look like with those TDs cut in half?

2013.

2012 vs. 2013:
48 vs. 53 carries
244 vs 220 rushing yards
75 vs. 71 receptions
667 vs 604 receiving yards
8 TDs vs. 4 TDs

Pretty much similar numbers across the board EXCEPT the high variance stat, TDs.  Which kind of broke the leg of the table that was buoying his fantasy value.

Now, granted, the outcome wasn't anywhere close to what I'd hoped after seeing this data last offseason, but I think the data might still be valid.

Ray Rice:

  • Ray Rice:


  • 2012: 257 carries / 1,143 rush yards /  9 rush TDs / 61 recs /   478 rec yards / 1 rec TD = 1,926 / 252.6


  • 2011: 291 carries / 1,364 rush yards / 12 rush TDs / 76 recs /   704 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 2,448 / 334.8


  • 2010: 307 carries / 1,220 rush yards /  5 rush TDs / 63 recs /   556 rec yards / 1 rec TD = 2,091 / 245.1


  • 2009: 254 carries / 1,339 rush yards /  7 rush TDs / 78 recs /   702 rec yards / 1 rec TD = 2,431 / 291.1

You can see, his numbers, his fantasy value, was NEVER dependent upon TDs.  He was the only RB to have 2,000 or more points in Column A in 3 different seasons - let alone, 3 CONSECUTIVE seasons.  Not to mention, he didn't merely break the 2,000 point barrier in those seasons - in two of them, he broke the 2,400 barrier.

The other season?  Over 1,900.

If you look at every other RB on that chart, including Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, etc, you'll notice that none of them combined that high of a ceiling with that kind of consistency.

  • 2012: 315 carries / 1,590 rush yards / 11 rush TDs / 23 recs /   196 rec yards / 1 rec TD = 1,901 / 262.0


  • 2011: 285 carries / 1,204 rush yards / 12 rush TDs / 28 recs /   212 rec yards / 1 rec TD = 1,556 / 233.5

Lynch never broke the 2K barrier for this metric in either of his seasons with Seattle.  His fantasy production was buoyed by TDs (that doesn't make him a bad pick or fantasy choice, just pointing out the facts here).

Adrian Peterson broke the 2K barrier for this metric once back in 2009, and then again when he had his epic season coming off his ACL tear in 2012:

  • Adrian Peterson:


  • 2012: 384 carries / 2,097 rush yards / 12 rush TDs / 40 recs /   217 rec yards / 1 rec TD = 2,514 / 329.5


  • 2011: 208 carries /   970 rush yards / 12 rush TDs / 18 recs /   139 rec yards / 1 rec TD = 1,199 / 198.0


  • 2010: 283 carries / 1,298 rush yards / 12 rush TDs / 36 recs /   341 rec yards / 1 rec TD = 1,819 / 260.0


  • 2009: 314 carries / 1,383 rush yards / 18 rush TDs / 43 recs /   436 rec yards / 0 rec TD = 2,034 / 311.5


  • 2008: 363 carries / 1,760 rush yards / 10 rush TDs / 21 recs /   125 rec yards / 0 rec TD = 1,990 / 259.0


  • 2007: 238 carries / 1,341 rush yards / 12 rush TDs / 19 recs /   268 rec yards / 1 rec TD = 1,704 / 248.5

His fantasy value has also been heavily buoyed by his TD production.
2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Josh Gordon..........(09.13)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - Ifeanyi Momah........(14.02)
RB2: Toby Gerhart...........(02.02)............. RB - Shonn Greene.........(UD.FA)
WR1: Cordarrelle Patterson..(04.09)............. RB - LeGarrette Blount....(09.06)
WR2: Reggie Wayne...........(07.13)............. RB - Bryce Brown..........(11.13)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Jonathan Grimes......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - Theo Riddick.........(15.13)
FLEX2: Tavon Austin.........(10.02)............. RB - Lorezno Taliaferro...(16.02)

#3 Robrain

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 04:47 AM

Also, keep in mind this chart does not account for injuries.  It's just a bare look at the actual data.
2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Josh Gordon..........(09.13)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - Ifeanyi Momah........(14.02)
RB2: Toby Gerhart...........(02.02)............. RB - Shonn Greene.........(UD.FA)
WR1: Cordarrelle Patterson..(04.09)............. RB - LeGarrette Blount....(09.06)
WR2: Reggie Wayne...........(07.13)............. RB - Bryce Brown..........(11.13)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Jonathan Grimes......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - Theo Riddick.........(15.13)
FLEX2: Tavon Austin.........(10.02)............. RB - Lorezno Taliaferro...(16.02)

#4 FFCollusion

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 11:46 AM

Interesting, but I'll just say this.  As a guy who actually enjoys breaking down the numbers, I find it extremely hard to look at your data for more than 1-2 minutes.  Not because the data isn't useful, or extremely well thought out, etc.  It's not very user friendly, or more accurately, not very easy to extract the information the common user is likely to be looking for.  I could be wrong, and if it wasn't designed for 'the masses' then by all means, the data is there for those who care, and as long as you can personally refer to it, and quickly obtain information, then that's what matters.

But, if you wouldn't be offended, I'd be fairly interested in repeating your process, and organizing it in a way (I think) the common folk might more positively respond to?

Regardless, very interesting process that when I have time, I'll have to look into a bit deeper.
The only thing that gives me pause, is that some TD's aren't fluky, and yet are weighted (removed) equally.
I have no clue how to counter that, just felt it was worth noting.
I do it for the likes...

#5 FFCollusion

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 12:45 PM

For the sake of knowledge, I'm going to pretend Robrain said yes.  So for those curious, here are all of last years data.
Excuse the crude nature, as I only put 10 minutes into the spreadsheet.

https://docs.google....dit?usp=sharing

But, from left to right in the 'tabs' you'll see .5PPR, 1PPR and Standard.  The extra tabs are the original data, that I pulled from, calculated, and then used to sort the data, to make them easier to read.
I left the numbers by each RB's name, so that you can see the variation across formats.
For example, in the .5 data, you can see that Reggie only ranked 10th in standard, but jumps up to 5th in .5PPR, despite missing games/being benched.
But keep in mind the numbers are standard results from 2013, so can be slightly misleading based on what you think you're comparing. (No TD's vs TDs, or no TDs AND no PPR, to PPR, TDs STD etc)
Also keep in mind, not all players played in 16 games.

Actually... Now I need to go redo it, and account for missed games, re-sort on a points-per-game and... damn you Robrain!
I do it for the likes...

#6 Robrain

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 08:11 PM

Sorry man, my dog died this afternoon and I had to bury her.  I am drained right now, and my browser just crashed and deleted a long response I'd been typing up.

I'll type up a proper response again tomorrow.

And yeah, feel free to do what you will with the data - I posted this so I could get some people to collaborate on it.  It's all public knowledge anyhow, I got pretty much all of it off the individual NFL.com player profiles :)
2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Josh Gordon..........(09.13)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - Ifeanyi Momah........(14.02)
RB2: Toby Gerhart...........(02.02)............. RB - Shonn Greene.........(UD.FA)
WR1: Cordarrelle Patterson..(04.09)............. RB - LeGarrette Blount....(09.06)
WR2: Reggie Wayne...........(07.13)............. RB - Bryce Brown..........(11.13)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Jonathan Grimes......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - Theo Riddick.........(15.13)
FLEX2: Tavon Austin.........(10.02)............. RB - Lorezno Taliaferro...(16.02)

#7 FFCollusion

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 01:45 AM

Sorry to hear that.
Added 3 new tabs to the spreadsheets, Per Game results for all 3 scoring formats.
Some names do some jumping.  But it's impossible to distinguish between games played, and games started.  For example, Ellington didn't really 'play' for weeks.  Same for Allen, Foster jumped up a bunch, despite a 1 week 'start' where he didn't even touch the ball.

But, for what it is, the data is there.

Robrain you said you used the individual NFL.com profiles?
Do you mean you clicked through each player and manually input each stat, for each year?

If you did... then I'm not sure whether to applaud or cry for you.
I just copy/pasted the top 50 RB's from 2013 into the spreadsheet, created a calculation to add lines A B &
C together and bingo bango done.
I do it for the likes...

#8 Robrain

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 07:01 AM

View PostFFCollusion, on 04 July 2014 - 01:45 AM, said:

Sorry to hear that.
Added 3 new tabs to the spreadsheets, Per Game results for all 3 scoring formats.
Some names do some jumping.  But it's impossible to distinguish between games played, and games started.  For example, Ellington didn't really 'play' for weeks.  Same for Allen, Foster jumped up a bunch, despite a 1 week 'start' where he didn't even touch the ball.

But, for what it is, the data is there.

Robrain you said you used the individual NFL.com profiles?
Do you mean you clicked through each player and manually input each stat, for each year?

If you did... then I'm not sure whether to applaud or cry for you.
I just copy/pasted the top 50 RB's from 2013 into the spreadsheet, created a calculation to add lines A B &
C together and bingo bango done.

I use the NFL.com profiles because I find they're the quickest way to research most of a player's stats.

Step 1: CTRL+T to open a new tab
Step 2: Type the player's name followed by the word NFL into your browser's url area
Example: jahvid best nfl
Step 3: On the resulting Google search page, it's almost always the top result, or in the top 5 results. Usually requires no scrolling to find.  In the case of the above Jahvid Best example, it's the 3rd result from the top.  It's the one that has NFL.com in the url.  Click it and you're there.
Example:

Jahvid Best, RB at NFL.com
www.nfl.com/player/jahvidbest/497147/profile
Oct 11, 2011 - Jahvid Best. Height: 5-10 Weight: 199 Age: 25. Born: 1/30/1989 Vallejo , CA. College: California. Experience: 3 Seasons. CAR. 255. YDS. 945.

Literally, the above steps only take like 5-10 seconds in order to get to each player's profile.  It's insanely quick and easy.

NFL.com player profiles have two things that make them great glanceable sources for stats.  The main page of the player profile lists that player's overall stats for each season they played:

http://www.nfl.com/p.../497147/profile

Just beneath the profile picture, there's a row of text headings: "Profile", "Career Stats", "Game Logs", "Game Splits", "Situational Stats", "Draft", and "Combine".

The important one to remember is "Game Logs".  This will enable you to go back to any game during that player's career, and find out his stats specific to that game.  Carries, rushing/receiving yards, touchdowns, fumbles, longest rush, longest reception, etc:

http://www.nfl.com/p...497147/gamelogs

You can select the year (season) by using the dropdown menu on the right side of that "Game Logs" page:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2011

Furthermore, take Jahvid Best's season in 2011 (url above) as an example.

Let's go to his Week 5 game vs. CHI as an example.  To do that, you click on the SCORE (24-13 in this case), and it takes you to the NFL.com page for that specific game.

http://www.nfl.com/g...s#menu=gameinfo

Scroll down past the video that starts up automatically on each game page.  There are multiple tabs below the video.  "Recap", "Discuss", "Analyze", and "Videos".  Click the "Analyze" tab.

The default screen on the "Analyze" tab will show you the Box Score for that particular game, displaying the relevant stats for that game for each player that participated.  Useful, but we're looking for a different bit of information that to my knowledge, isn't found elsewhere.

Underneath the "Analyze" tab are two sub-headings, "Box Score" (the default), and "Play By Play".  Click "Play By Play".

What you'll see is a short description of every play in the game:
  • 1st Quarter
    • Detroit Lions at 15:00

    • 9-R.Gould kicks 65 yards from CHI 35 to end zone, Touchback.

    • 1-10-DET 20(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 13-N.Burleson.

    • 2-10-DET 20(14:57) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-B.Pettigrew to DET 28 for 8 yards (53-N.Roach; 54-B.Urlacher).

    • 3-2-DET 28(14:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 16-T.Young to DET 37 for 9 yards (26-T.Jennings).

    • 1-10-DET 37(13:42) 44-J.Best right tackle to DET 38 for 1 yard (55-L.Briggs).

    • 2-9-DET 38(13:07) 13-N.Burleson right end to DET 40 for 2 yards (33-C.Tillman).

    • 3-7-DET 40(12:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 16-T.Young.

    • 4-7-DET 40(12:20) 6-R.Donahue punts 40 yards to CHI 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.
You can use this if you want to, for example, research how many times a RB was given the ball on 3rd and short.  Or how often a team passes in the red zone.  Or how often a player catches passes/is targeted between the 20's as opposed to in the red zone.

Lastly, on that note, the only somewhat common/important stat (at least for fantasy football) that NFL.com doesn't seem to list/keep track of, is targets.  But, another site, KFFL, tracks them in a simple, concise format.

Step 1: CTRL+T to open a new tab
Step 2: Type the name of the player followed by the words "targets" and "KFFL"
Example: jahvid best targets kffl
Step 3: Click the corresponding page, which is almost always the first search result.
Example:

Jahvid Best targets and utilization stats - KFFL.com
www.kffl.com/player/22323/nfl/utilization/jahvid-best
Jahvid Best news, information, rumors and injury updates. Also access the latest fantasy tips, trends, statistics, depth chart and more from KFFL.com's Hot off the ...

This is the best, and fastest way I know of to look up individual player stats at varying degrees of scale (seasonal versus individual game breakdowns).

As for contracts, I use Spotrac.com (though for looking up a single player's contract info, the Rotoworld player profiles usually have a good rundown of each player's contract details, and can be quickly found by Googling "playername + roto" [without the quotes]), and for ADP's I use FantasyFootballCalculator.com

I think that covers most stat-things for fantasy football.

If you've got a faster way of getting to different stats for a player, let me know, because I think I've already streamlined the process as much as humanly possible ;)

Edited by Robrain, 04 July 2014 - 07:02 AM.

2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Josh Gordon..........(09.13)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - Ifeanyi Momah........(14.02)
RB2: Toby Gerhart...........(02.02)............. RB - Shonn Greene.........(UD.FA)
WR1: Cordarrelle Patterson..(04.09)............. RB - LeGarrette Blount....(09.06)
WR2: Reggie Wayne...........(07.13)............. RB - Bryce Brown..........(11.13)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Jonathan Grimes......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - Theo Riddick.........(15.13)
FLEX2: Tavon Austin.........(10.02)............. RB - Lorezno Taliaferro...(16.02)

#9 Robrain

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 07:11 AM

Second note, yeah, even though I'm familiar with a vast variety of computer-related things, I still prefer using simple text documents for a lot of my text-data storage.  I recognize the benefits of things like Excel and spreadsheets, but I still find that a text document is readable/viewable on pretty much every platform - no need to install extra software that can open MS Office filetypes, especially on things like iOS/Android phones and tablets.  Text documents always work, can be opened in any browser, a notepad/wordpad-type program (which are usually already installed).  Keeps it simple unless something more complex is needed.

I grew up using GameFAQs as my primary source of information for videogame walkthroughs (the dialup days, before Youtube was a thing), so it's probably ingrained in my blood by now.
2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Josh Gordon..........(09.13)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - Ifeanyi Momah........(14.02)
RB2: Toby Gerhart...........(02.02)............. RB - Shonn Greene.........(UD.FA)
WR1: Cordarrelle Patterson..(04.09)............. RB - LeGarrette Blount....(09.06)
WR2: Reggie Wayne...........(07.13)............. RB - Bryce Brown..........(11.13)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Jonathan Grimes......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - Theo Riddick.........(15.13)
FLEX2: Tavon Austin.........(10.02)............. RB - Lorezno Taliaferro...(16.02)

#10 Robrain

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 07:18 AM

3rd note, something I forgot to mention earlier, while this data doesn't specify which players suffered injuries contributing to their low totals for any given season, in a way, the numbers themselves kind of have a built-in "durability" rating for each season.

If the player achieved a 2K + score on the metric, most likely he didn't get injured that season.  That was also part of the allure in Ray Rice's back-to-back-to-back 2K metric seasons - it showcased that he had been remarkably durable while maintaining an Elite level of performance.

Players that consistently never reached the 2K metric either weren't starters the full season, didn't perform well enough to reach the 2K mark on the scale...example:

  • Shonn Greene:


  • 2012: 276 carries / 1,063 rush yards /  8 rush TDs / 19 recs /   151 rec yards / 0 rec TD = 1,309 / 178.9


  • 2011: 253 carries / 1,054 rush yards /  6 rush TDs / 30 recs /   211 rec yards / 0 rec TD = 1,415 / 177.5


  • 2010: 185 carries /   766 rush yards /  2 rush TDs / 16 recs /   120 rec yards / 0 rec TD =   966 / 108.6

Or, in pretty much every other case, got injured during that season.

  • Darren McFadden:


  • 2012: 216 carries /   707 rush yards /  2 rush TDs / 42 recs /   258 rec yards / 1 rec TD = 1,175 / 135.5


  • 2011: 113 carries /   614 rush yards /  4 rush TDs / 19 recs /   154 rec yards / 1 rec TD =   863 / 116.3


  • 2010: 223 carries / 1,157 rush yards /  7 rush TDs / 47 recs /   507 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 1,899 / 249.9


  • 2009: 104 carries /   357 rush yards /  1 rush TDs / 21 recs /   245 rec yards / 0 rec TD =   707 /  76.7


  • 2008: 113 carries /   499 rush yards /  4 rush TDs / 29 recs /   285 rec yards / 0 rec TD =   929 / 116.9

2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Josh Gordon..........(09.13)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - Ifeanyi Momah........(14.02)
RB2: Toby Gerhart...........(02.02)............. RB - Shonn Greene.........(UD.FA)
WR1: Cordarrelle Patterson..(04.09)............. RB - LeGarrette Blount....(09.06)
WR2: Reggie Wayne...........(07.13)............. RB - Bryce Brown..........(11.13)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Jonathan Grimes......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - Theo Riddick.........(15.13)
FLEX2: Tavon Austin.........(10.02)............. RB - Lorezno Taliaferro...(16.02)

#11 Robrain

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 07:36 AM

View PostFFCollusion, on 03 July 2014 - 11:46 AM, said:

The only thing that gives me pause, is that some TD's aren't fluky, and yet are weighted (removed) equally.
I have no clue how to counter that, just felt it was worth noting.

I'm forgetting the exact term, "fluky" may not have been it.  What I was looking for might have better been described as:

"A RB scoring TDs usually requires his team to be around the goal-line.  Because of this, if a team can't reach the goal-line consistently, there's nothing the RB can do about that for his TD production in fantasy."

Say like, a team's star WR gets injured, out for the season.  This can have a drastic effect on that team's ability to move into scoring range.  If the team can't move into scoring range effectively, odds are you end up with an offense like the Rams or the Jaguars.

Steven Jackson, rushing TDs w/Rams:
4
5
6
4
7
5
13
8
4

Maurice Jones-Drew, rushing TDs w/Jaguars:
5
1
8
5
15
12
9
13

The point is, it's easy to see how an unpredictable event like the loss of a star player on offense (whether it be a WR, QB, TE, or even an offensive lineman) could cause drives to sputter outside of the area where a RB can score a rushing TD.

That RB could still rack up a lot of yards, even close to the same amount of yards as he normally would, but without the payoff of the TDs.

That's why I feel the TD stat can potentially be the one stat that can fluctuate the most from season to season.  And when it does fluctuate, to use the previous example because of the loss of the team's star WR to an ACL tear, you won't have been able to predict it.  You won't have been able to see it coming.

So, I kind of feel that rushing and receiving yards, and in PPR-type formats, receptions, provide a truer, more reliable understanding of a player's floor, their baseline that they'll still put up in a worst-case scenario (this is assuming that they themselves don't get injured, that they play the full season).

Because while I liked the possibility of Ray Rice's 2K + upside in this metric, the main reason I landed on him with my 1st round pick last season was because the data predicted that he would have an extremely high floor, making him a "safe" pick with your important 1st Rounder.  In a worst-case scenario, he had shown that even if his TDs were cut in half, he would still be consistently producing yards/receptions.

Edited by Robrain, 04 July 2014 - 07:38 AM.

2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Josh Gordon..........(09.13)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - Ifeanyi Momah........(14.02)
RB2: Toby Gerhart...........(02.02)............. RB - Shonn Greene.........(UD.FA)
WR1: Cordarrelle Patterson..(04.09)............. RB - LeGarrette Blount....(09.06)
WR2: Reggie Wayne...........(07.13)............. RB - Bryce Brown..........(11.13)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Jonathan Grimes......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - Theo Riddick.........(15.13)
FLEX2: Tavon Austin.........(10.02)............. RB - Lorezno Taliaferro...(16.02)

#12 Robrain

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 08:22 AM

Here's something I pulled up from last year, from the Jamaal Charles 2013 Season Outlook thread:

http://forums.rotowo...60#entry3671061

View PostRobrain, on 12 August 2013 - 03:33 PM, said:

I actually do like Charles.  My interest here is that I'm in a 14-team league and currently own Knile Davis, so I definitely need to closely monitor the circumstances/recovery surrounding Jamaal Charles injury.

As far as drafting, that 14-team 0.5 PPR league drafted about a week ago, and at the #5 overall spot I was considering JC, McCoy, Trent Richardson, SJax, and Ray Rice.  I decided to go with Ray Rice solely because of his durability streak over the past 4 seasons (RB scarcity in a deeper league means I was trying my best to make sure my RB1 lasts the entire season).  Next guy grabbed Jamaal Charles.

Again, I love Jamaal Charles for fantasy football.  If he's healthy he'll be Top-10 easily in that offense, likely Top-5 in PPR given Andy Reid's history with pass-catching RB's (Brian Westbrook).

But Andy Reid's pass-catching RB always being awesome is why I rostered Knile Davis even though I didn't own JC.

You can see I laid bare my reason for drafting Ray Rice in Round 1 over Jamaal Charles (was hoping to draft a RB that would survive the entire season, forgot about that part of the equation) since 14-team leagues are fairly deep.

But yeah, it was a very close choice between Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles.  Charles was my #2 choice, because of the data I'd compiled here regarding both Brian Westbrook and Jamaal Charles:

  • Brian Westbrook:


  • 2010:  77 carries /   340 rush yards /  4 rush TDs / 16 recs /   150 rec yards / 1 rec TD =   570 /


  • 2009:  61 carries /   274 rush yards /  1 rush TD  / 25 recs /   181 rec yards / 1 rec TD =   580 /


  • 2008: 233 carries /   936 rush yards /  9 rush TDs / 54 recs /   402 rec yards / 5 rec TD = 1,608 /


  • 2007: 278 carries / 1,333 rush yards /  7 rush TDs / 90 recs /   771 rec yards / 5 rec TD = 2,554 /


  • 2006: 240 carries / 1,217 rush yards /  7 rush TDs / 77 recs /   699 rec yards / 4 rec TD = 2,301 /


  • 2005: 156 carries /   617 rush yards /  3 rush TDs / 61 recs /   616 rec yards / 4 rec TD = 1,538 /


  • 2004: 177 carries /   812 rush yards /  3 rush TDs / 73 recs /   703 rec yards / 6 rec TD = 1,880 /


  • 2003: 117 carries /   613 rush yards /  7 rush TDs / 37 recs /   332 rec yards / 4 rec TD = 1,140 /


  • 2002:  46 carries /   193 rush yards /  0 rush TDs /  9 recs /    86 rec yards / 0 rec TD =   324 /

  • Jamaal Charles:


  • 2012: 285 carries / 1,509 rush yards /  5 rush TDs / 35 recs /   236 rec yards / 1 rec TD = 1,920 / 228.0


  • 2010: 230 carries / 1,467 rush yards /  5 rush TDs / 45 recs /   468 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 2,161 / 264.0


  • 2009: 190 carries / 1,120 rush yards /  7 rush TDs / 40 recs /   297 rec yards / 1 rec TD = 1,617 / 210.0

Charles had broke the 2K barrier for this metric in 2010, and achieved 1,900+ in 2012, coming off his ACL tear.  Assuming he hadn't been coming off his ACL tear, I think he could have broken the 2K metric for a second year in a row.

Now he was being thrust into an offense that was going to highlight his strengths, his speed, getting him into space.

When Brian Westbrook was given at least 240 carries in Andy Reed's offense, he broke the 2K metric both times.  And not just barely passing the 2K barrier, he broke the 2,300 barrier the first time, and the 2,550 barrier the second time.

One of the reasons I like to have the data in the format I do, is so you can easily compare two players against each other like I just did above.  Usually players that you think are similar to each other in build, attributes, running style, offensive coordinator/coach, etc.

The data above predicted an insanely high chance that Jamaal Charles would break the 2K metric in 2013 in Andy Reed's offense, assuming he stayed healthy.

So what were the results of Jamaal Charles 2013 season in this metric?

  • Brian Westbrook:


  • 2007: 278 carries / 1,333 rush yards /  7 rush TDs / 90 recs /   771 rec yards / 5 rec TD = 2,554 /


  • 2006: 240 carries / 1,217 rush yards /  7 rush TDs / 77 recs /   699 rec yards / 4 rec TD = 2,301 /

  • Jamaal Charles:


  • 2013: 259 carries / 1,287 rush yards / 12 rush TDs / 70 recs /   693 rec yards / 7 rec TD = 2,330 /


  • 2012: 285 carries / 1,509 rush yards /  5 rush TDs / 35 recs /   236 rec yards / 1 rec TD = 1,920 / 228.0


  • 2010: 230 carries / 1,467 rush yards /  5 rush TDs / 45 recs /   468 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 2,161 / 264.0


  • 2009: 190 carries / 1,120 rush yards /  7 rush TDs / 40 recs /   297 rec yards / 1 rec TD = 1,617 / 210.0

So now I think you can better understand how I was using this tool to help influence the decision-making process on how I was ranking players, or how I was deciding between two players who seemed about even on the surface.

The tool was designed to be able to help detect patterns like that Brian Westbrook / Jamaal Charles example.

I believe the 2K metric here is pretty accurate.  There's a lot of different ways to achieve breaking the 2K metric (more carries, less receptions, or less carries and more receptions), but I kind of think it's what you should be striving to find in a 1st Round RB.  It's the baseline performance that you are expecting from your 1st round pick.
2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Josh Gordon..........(09.13)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - Ifeanyi Momah........(14.02)
RB2: Toby Gerhart...........(02.02)............. RB - Shonn Greene.........(UD.FA)
WR1: Cordarrelle Patterson..(04.09)............. RB - LeGarrette Blount....(09.06)
WR2: Reggie Wayne...........(07.13)............. RB - Bryce Brown..........(11.13)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Jonathan Grimes......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - Theo Riddick.........(15.13)
FLEX2: Tavon Austin.........(10.02)............. RB - Lorezno Taliaferro...(16.02)

#13 FFCollusion

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 11:12 AM

Gunna be honest Robrain... that sounds crazy.
I use FFToday.  Has seperate list for each position, which you can sort by each stat, and shows every player every year.  Goes back 13 years, and you can click on each players name for the career history, by season or game, including targets.

I simply pulled open 'RB' '2013'
Copied the top 50 RB's into Google Docs (which is a webpage not a program, so every platform/cell phone can access it just like any other website with no issue)
Then in 1 row of the spreadsheet, I simply created a simple formula.
The first of which was the multiplication of receptions
=H1*5

Then a second formula
=SUM E1+I1+M1. (E1 is Rushing yards, I1 is receiving yards, M1 is the new cell created above)

I'm probably up to 2 minutes total so far.
Then, highlight the new cells (M1 and N1) (Both formulas)
And drag them down 50 lines.

And, it automatically does the math for every single player.
3 minutes.

Copy all 50 lines
New Tab
Paste Special (Values Only)
And you have the same thing on a different sheet, with formulas removed.
This allows you to 'Sort Range' by the column which has the 'total' so you can see how all RBs rank compared to eachother.

5 minutes total for the top 50 RBs of 2013.
I then just repeated the process with each format for .5, 1 and no PPR.

To do it by game, all I had to do was take the 'total' and divide by 'games played' (which was already in the copy/paste from FFT) and again drag it down 50 lines, and it does it for every single player.

Copy/Paste Special and re-sort.  Finished.

6 tabs, organized by the stat you've defined, for 50 players, for 2013, in 3 different scoring methods, in Yearly and Per-game formats.

Now, because the formulas are all in place, I could simply copy/paste each year into the initial spreadsheet, and it will automatically parse all data for every year, for all formats in seconds.  With the exception, that I'll need to re-sort them, to rank them by the stat you've defined.
I do it for the likes...

#14 Hawkeye21

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 11:50 AM

Very impressive

#15 Robrain

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 12:27 PM

I'd definitely like to figure out a name for this simple metric, so that I don't have to keep typing "2k barrier for this metric" every time, lol.

I might have vaguely heard the name FFToday before, but I've never checked out the site.  Unless someone specifically referenced an article in these forums, I usually get my fantasy football news either by the Rotoworld blurb stream (just for the news, not their random sportswriter's opinions/spin), Twitter (beat reporters + national figureheads like Adam Schefter), and by Googling a specific player's name and then clicking on the News tab in the search results:

https://www.google.c...i momah&tbm=nws

I listen to the Mathew Berry / Fantasy Focus podcast primarily because their ESPN researchers (not Berry himself) sometimes come up with interesting stats that your average fantasy football player would simply not have done the research to find.  Also for Stephania Bell's injury takes, as those can be valuable on occasion.

I believe last season I listened to some of Fantasy Underground because someone recommended the podcast because they focus more on stats and formulas and number stuff.  They definitely had some interesting takes on certain players from a number standpoint.  I'll probably skim through their podcasts before drafting this year.

Oh, I just checked FFToday and remembered that NFL.com has something similar to what you posted, for viewing player's stats:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/player

http://www.nfl.com/s...false&Submit=Go

FFToday's, of course, has the added benefit of the column which tells you how many fantasy points those stats equal.  I do find that to be helpful when looking at RB's, because of their separate rushing / receiving stats makes it harder to "glance" and know how many fantasy points that equals.  Whereas a receiver or a TE, you basically order them from most receiving yards to least receiving yards, and that's usually the rough order they end up in for fantasy scoring, with minor tweaks for PPR scoring.

Oh, and another reason I was willing to do it the way I did it was, I would really only have to do it once.  Once I've recorded into that text document all (or at least the majority of) the RB data since around the year 2000, it would be in there permanently.  I'd only have to update it once at the end of each season with that year's new data.  So while the up front timecost might be decent (I forget exactly, but I think I completed what's in that document over 1-4 days of working on it in bits and pieces, 20 minutes here, 20 minutes there, because yeah, data entry is always boring), the upkeep going forward each season is pretty minimal.  Can probably have the entire thing updated for the 2013 starting RBs in a matter of an hour or three.

There was also something I did last year...not sure where it went...there's a possibility that I have a different set of this data saved on my external hard drive that I don't have access to right now (it's filesystem got corrupted and I've got data recovery software pulling the all the old data off of it).

But, it was an example, using this data, to show how uncommon RB receiving TDs are (come to think of it, I might have written it out on a whiteboard which would explain why I can't find it).  Here, I just replicated it again real quick:

RB's with more than 3 receiving TDs in a single season (2013 data not included):

Marshall Faulk:

  • 2001: 260 carries / 1,382 rush yards / 12 rush TDs / 83 recs /   765 rec yards / 9 rec TD = 2,562 / 382.2

  • 2000: 253 carries / 1,359 rush yards / 18 rush TDs / 81 recs /   830 rec yards / 8 rec TD = 2,594 / 415.4

  • 1999: 253 carries / 1,381 rush yards /  7 rush TDs / 87 recs / 1,048 rec yards / 5 rec TD = 2,864 / 358.4

  • 1998: 324 carries / 1,319 rush yards /  6 rush TDs / 86 recs /   908 rec yards / 4 rec TD = 2,657 / 325.7

Darren Sproles:

  • 2012:  48 carries /   244 rush yards /  1 rush TD  / 75 recs /   667 rec yards / 7 rec TD = 1,286 /

  • 2011:  87 carries /   603 rush yards /  2 rush TDs / 86 recs /   710 rec yards / 7 rec TD = 1,743 /

  • 2009:  93 carries /   343 rush yards /  3 rush TDs / 45 recs /   497 rec yards / 4 rec TD = 1,065 /

  • 2008:  61 carries /   330 rush yards /  1 rush TD  / 29 recs /   342 rec yards / 5 rec TD =   817 /

Brian Westbrook:

  • 2008: 233 carries /   936 rush yards /  9 rush TDs / 54 recs /   402 rec yards / 5 rec TD = 1,608 /

  • 2007: 278 carries / 1,333 rush yards /  7 rush TDs / 90 recs /   771 rec yards / 5 rec TD = 2,554 /

  • 2006: 240 carries / 1,217 rush yards /  7 rush TDs / 77 recs /   699 rec yards / 4 rec TD = 2,301 /

  • 2005: 156 carries /   617 rush yards /  3 rush TDs / 61 recs /   616 rec yards / 4 rec TD = 1,538 /


  • 2004: 177 carries /   812 rush yards /  3 rush TDs / 73 recs /   703 rec yards / 6 rec TD = 1,880 /


  • 2003: 117 carries /   613 rush yards /  7 rush TDs / 37 recs /   332 rec yards / 4 rec TD = 1,140 /

Matt Forte:

  • 2008: 316 carries / 1,238 rush yards /  8 rush TDs / 63 recs /   477 rec yards / 4 rec TD = 2,030 /

Reggie Bush:

  • 2008: 106 carries /   404 rush yards /  2 rush TDs / 52 recs /   440 rec yards / 4 rec TD = 1,104 /

That's it, or at least to the extent of the information available in my data set.

So counting on any RB getting more than 3 receiving TDs, imo, is folly.  Yes, obviously certain very specific RBs like Sproles, Westbrook, and Faulk were in an offense where the coach was determined to get them into space and utilize them heavily in the screen game, but that is SO excessively rare that you cannot guarantee those receiving TDs, at least not any amount above 3.

Now, here are all the RB's that had exactly 3 receiving TDs in a single season:

Jamaal Charles:

  • 2010: 230 carries / 1,467 rush yards /  5 rush TDs / 45 recs /   468 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 2,161 / 264.0
LeSean McCoy:

  • 2012: 200 carries /   840 rush yards /  2 rush TDs / 54 recs /   373 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 1,483 / 178.5


  • 2011: 273 carries / 1,309 rush yards / 17 rush TDs / 48 recs /   315 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 1,864 / 306.5
Maurice Jones-Drew:

  • 2011: 343 carries / 1,606 rush yards /  8 rush TDs / 43 recs /   374 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 2,195 / 285.5
Ray Rice:

  • 2011: 291 carries / 1,364 rush yards / 12 rush TDs / 76 recs /   704 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 2,448 / 334.8
Steven Jackson:

  • 2006: 346 carries / 1,528 rush yards / 13 rush TDs / 90 recs /   806 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 2,794 / 375.4
Pierre Thomas:

  • 2008: 129 carries /   625 rush yards /  9 rush TDs / 31 recs /   284 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 1,064 / 178.4
Danny Woodhead:

  • 2012:  76 carries /   301 rush yards /  4 rush TDs / 40 recs /   446 rec yards / 3 rec TD =   947 / 136.7
Joseph Addai:

  • 2009: 219 carries /   828 rush yards / 10 rush TDs / 51 recs /   336 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 1,419 /

  • 2007: 261 carries / 1,072 rush yards / 12 rush TDs / 41 recs /   364 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 1,641 /
Matt Forte:

  • 2010: 237 carries / 1,069 rush yards /  6 rush TDs / 51 recs /   547 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 1,871 /
Marcel Reece:

  • 2010:  30 carries /   122 rush yards /  1 rush TD  / 25 recs /   333 rec yards / 3 rec TD =   580 /
Reggie Bush:

  • 2009:  70 carries /   390 rush yards /  5 rush TDs / 47 recs /   335 rec yards / 3 rec TD =   960 /
Darren McFadden:

  • 2010: 223 carries / 1,157 rush yards /  7 rush TDs / 47 recs /   507 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 1,899 / 249.9
Frank Gore:

  • 2009: 229 carries / 1,120 rush yards / 10 rush TDs / 52 recs /   406 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 1,786 /
Knowshon Moreno:

  • 2010: 182 carries /   779 rush yards /  5 rush TDs / 37 recs /   372 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 1,336 /
Kevin Smith:

  • 2011:  72 carries /   356 rush yards /  4 rush TDs / 22 recs /   179 rec yards / 3 rec TD =   645 /
Marshall Faulk:

  • 1995: 289 carries / 1,078 rush yards / 11 rush TDs / 56 recs /   475 rec yards / 3 rec TD = 1,833 / 267.3

Every other RB?  Pick a random number out of 0, 1, and 2:

http://pastebin.com/USBCLEiN

Completely unpredictable.

This is one reason why TDs can potentially fluctuate a lot.
2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Josh Gordon..........(09.13)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - Ifeanyi Momah........(14.02)
RB2: Toby Gerhart...........(02.02)............. RB - Shonn Greene.........(UD.FA)
WR1: Cordarrelle Patterson..(04.09)............. RB - LeGarrette Blount....(09.06)
WR2: Reggie Wayne...........(07.13)............. RB - Bryce Brown..........(11.13)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Jonathan Grimes......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - Theo Riddick.........(15.13)
FLEX2: Tavon Austin.........(10.02)............. RB - Lorezno Taliaferro...(16.02)

#16 Robrain

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 12:53 PM

A small addition to the above numbers regarding RB receiving TDs:

Darren Sproles 2011 season:
2011:  87 carries /   603 rush yards /  2 rush TDs / 86 recs /   710 rec yards / 7 rec TD = 1,743 /

Was coincidentally the same season that Drew Brees broke the NFL single season passing yards record.  So, another reason not to expect that kind of receiving TD production from a RB.
2014 Rotoworld Mock Draft Real League - 14-Team 0.5 PPR + ALL TDs = 6PTs:

_____STARTING LINEUP_______________.............._____BENCH_______________________
QB : Matthew Stafford.......(03.13)............. WR - Josh Gordon..........(09.13)
RB1: Montee Ball............(01.13)............. WR - Ifeanyi Momah........(14.02)
RB2: Toby Gerhart...........(02.02)............. RB - Shonn Greene.........(UD.FA)
WR1: Cordarrelle Patterson..(04.09)............. RB - LeGarrette Blount....(09.06)
WR2: Reggie Wayne...........(07.13)............. RB - Bryce Brown..........(11.13)
TE : Kyle Rudolph...........(06.02)............. RB - Jonathan Grimes......(UD.FA)
FLEX1: Steven Jackson.......(04.02)............. RB - Theo Riddick.........(15.13)
FLEX2: Tavon Austin.........(10.02)............. RB - Lorezno Taliaferro...(16.02)




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