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Rushing Distributions


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#1 mmrodri

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Posted 13 August 2014 - 03:49 PM

Around this time of year we see a lot of hubbub about what backs are going to be in timeshares, who's splitting carries with who, and whether a team uses a true workhorse.

I found this chart the other day while searching for something totally different and found it incredibly enlightening.

http://www.junkyardj...RedZoneRushers/

In terms of the top rushers from last year, only one back was near 90% of his team's carries. Gotta be AP, right? McCoy? Charles! Gotta be Charles... Nope. It was Forte.
  • Charles took 62% of his team's rushes.
  • McCoy took 79%.
  • Lynch took 62%
  • Ryan Mathews took 70% of his team's carries.

The redzone carries are even more interesting (Forte is the only one at ~90% there too), but I'll get into that later.

My takeaway from this, a workhorse isn't necessarily taking the vast majority of his team's carries. 60% was what guys who are considered workhorse status got. The dreaded timeshare backs (Gio/BJGE, Bush/Bell, etc.) were all in the 50% range.

Consume the stats at will.
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#2 96mnc

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Posted 13 August 2014 - 03:52 PM

View Postmmrodri, on 13 August 2014 - 03:49 PM, said:

Around this time of year we see a lot of hubbub about what backs are going to be in timeshares, who's splitting carries with who, and whether a team uses a true workhorse.

I found this chart the other day while searching for something totally different and found it incredibly enlightening.

http://www.junkyardj...RedZoneRushers/

In terms of the top rushers from last year, only one back was near 90% of his team's carries. Gotta be AP, right? McCoy? Charles! Gotta be Charles... Nope. It was Forte.
  • Charles took 62% of his team's rushes.
  • McCoy took 79%.
  • Lynch took 62%
  • Ryan Mathews took 70% of his team's carries.
The redzone carries are even more interesting (Forte is the only one at ~90% there too), but I'll get into that later.

My takeaway from this, a workhorse isn't necessarily taking the vast majority of his team's carries. 60% was what guys who are considered workhorse status got. The dreaded timeshare backs (Gio/BJGE, Bush/Bell, etc.) were all in the 50% range.

Consume the stats at will.

Awesome stuff, thanks for posting.

Shocked that Lynch was only at 62%.  Would never have guessed that.

#3 96mnc

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Posted 13 August 2014 - 03:57 PM

A question about the data:

It has Ellington at 74% of the teams rushing attempts but doesn't list Mendenhall at all.  What gives?
Andre Ellington Posted Image RB 74.3%   Stepfan Taylor Posted Image RB 20.3%


There's a similar issue with the Browns and Willis McGahee not being listed at all.

Edited by 96mnc, 13 August 2014 - 03:59 PM.


#4 mmrodri

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Posted 13 August 2014 - 04:05 PM

View Post96mnc, on 13 August 2014 - 03:57 PM, said:

A question about the data:

It has Ellington at 74% of the teams rushing attempts but doesn't list Mendenhall at all.  What gives?
Andre Ellington Posted Image RB 74.3%   Stepfan Taylor Posted Image RB 20.3%


There's a similar issue with the Browns and Willis McGahee not being listed at all.

There's some shenanigans going on there...good catch. It might be a bug in their system that retired players got dropped from the list?

#5 96mnc

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Posted 13 August 2014 - 04:07 PM

View Postmmrodri, on 13 August 2014 - 04:05 PM, said:

View Post96mnc, on 13 August 2014 - 03:57 PM, said:

A question about the data:

It has Ellington at 74% of the teams rushing attempts but doesn't list Mendenhall at all.  What gives?
Andre Ellington Posted Image RB 74.3%   Stepfan Taylor Posted Image RB 20.3%


There's a similar issue with the Browns and Willis McGahee not being listed at all.

There's some shenanigans going on there...good catch. It might be a bug in their system that retired players got dropped from the list?

That would make sense since that is the commonality between the two players.  Any other retired RBs that we can test the theory on?

#6 Iron-cock

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Posted 13 August 2014 - 08:10 PM

Yeah, it's broken.  Forte didn't get 90% of the carries last year (that would be crazy!)  he did get 71% which still seems high.

Holy hell is that website design bad.  I clicked around a bit and saw:

Posted ImageCopyright © 1998-2013 JunkYard Jake.® All Rights Reserved.

It looks more 1995 than 1998!  Geocities Style in full effect.  Cool attempt at stats though.

Edited by Iron-cock, 13 August 2014 - 08:11 PM.

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#7 96mnc

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Posted 13 August 2014 - 09:11 PM

View PostIron-cock, on 13 August 2014 - 08:10 PM, said:

Yeah, it's broken.  Forte didn't get 90% of the carries last year (that would be crazy!)  he did get 71% which still seems high.

Holy hell is that website design bad.  I clicked around a bit and saw:

Posted ImageCopyright 1998-2013 JunkYard Jake. All Rights Reserved.

It looks more 1995 than 1998!  Geocities Style in full effect.  Cool attempt at stats though.

I suspect it's the same issue.  Michael Bush, like McGahee and Mendenhall, is not currently in the league.

#8 Sidearmer

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Posted 13 August 2014 - 10:01 PM

I'm sure if someone had the time this could be put together accurately. Any volunteers here?

As for actual rushes, I think its important to look at touches and not rushes, because a guy like Darren Sproles barely gets any carries but he will be the leader in touches from the backfield. Also these things change a lot and we don't know about rookie situations.

Best way to analyze this would be a full write up on each team's depth. Rank the RB on each team, project out touches, then write some notes.

Edited by Sidearmer, 13 August 2014 - 10:03 PM.

"I never said most of the things I said." - Yogi Berra

#9 Iron-cock

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Posted 13 August 2014 - 11:03 PM

View Post96mnc, on 13 August 2014 - 09:11 PM, said:

I suspect it's the same issue.  Michael Bush, like McGahee and Mendenhall, is not currently in the league.

Jeez, Bush isnt even in a camp somewhere?  That guy really fell off a cliff.

#10 93_Confirmed

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 08:10 AM

View PostIron-cock, on 13 August 2014 - 11:03 PM, said:

View Post96mnc, on 13 August 2014 - 09:11 PM, said:

I suspect it's the same issue.  Michael Bush, like McGahee and Mendenhall, is not currently in the league.

Jeez, Bush isnt even in a camp somewhere?  That guy really fell off a cliff.

Yeah what happened to Michael Bush? He's a competent back with skills and it's kind of shocking that he's not rostered.
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#11 mrblonde1984

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 08:24 AM

Michael Bush would rush for 2,000 yards on the Colts. I'm dumbfounded as to why he isn't on a team as at least a goal line back somewhere.
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2014 Live Draft Hometown League • 12 teams • PPR • 4-point TD pass • Bonuses • Return Yards
(1-1)

QB: M. Stafford (5.9)
RB: A. Ellington (via trade)
RB: R. Bush (via trade)
WR: D. Bryant (1.9)
WR: A. Brown (2.4)
TE: D. Walker (UDFA)
FLEX: A. Johnson (3.9)
FLEX: M. Asiata (UDFA)
D/ST: Houston (UDFA)
K: Vinatieri (UDFA)
Bench: W. Welker (via trade), B. Tate (6.4), K. Rudolph (9.9), J. Forsett (UDFA), J. Dwyer (via trade)


#12 Dislimb

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 10:19 AM

I'm at work at the moment, but I just want to say that this is a fantastic idea for a thread.

I'd be more than happy to help compile data for it.
Rotoworld League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, 6 point passing TDs
Check out "Your League" Forums: "2014 Rotoworld Mock Real League"

QB: Tom Brady
RB1: Adrian Peterson
RB2: Marshawn Lynch
WR1: DeSean Jackson
WR2: Kendall Wright
W/R/T: Alfred Morris
W/R/T: Fred Jackson
TE: Charles Clay
DEF: Seattle Seahawks
K: Mason Crosby

Bench:
RB: Darren Sproles, Christine Michael, Mark Ingram
WR: Brian Hartline, Greg Jennings, Doug Baldwin

#13 96mnc

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 12:12 PM

View PostSidearmer, on 13 August 2014 - 10:01 PM, said:

I'm sure if someone had the time this could be put together accurately. Any volunteers here?

As for actual rushes, I think its important to look at touches and not rushes, because a guy like Darren Sproles barely gets any carries but he will be the leader in touches from the backfield. Also these things change a lot and we don't know about rookie situations.

Best way to analyze this would be a full write up on each team's depth. Rank the RB on each team, project out touches, then write some notes.

Touches over carries is definitely better.  Or both.

I emailed the site owner and he's correcting the carries issue.

I'll send him another email about how easy or difficult it would be to add a column for catches and then a total column.

Edited by 96mnc, 14 August 2014 - 12:13 PM.





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