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  1. 33 likes
    My Overall Top 250 (First Pass) w/Projections/Blurbs/Profiles/etc. So I just finished by blurbs for my first pass at my 2017 overall top 250 for 5x5 Roto leagues. Before I get into anything I wanted to establish a bit of a framework or context for my ranks. This framework I’ll mark by sections and will briefly cover my philosophy as to my intentions with posting my ranks, my method of creating projections, and a bit of a “usage guide” so to speak about how I view the relationship between Rankings, Projections and ADP data. If you want to skip the framework and just click the links to the bottom links I won’t fault you for it at all, but I definitely recommend reading at least the guide because I do find my interpretation of the relationship between Rankings, Projections, and ADP to be important to a reading of my ranks. Intent -- I get two comments typically in regards to ranks: “When will you post them,” and “Why do you post them, because I play in leagues with people who frequent this forum and I don’t want them to know what I’m thinking at the draft board.” I completely understand the latter point, but it has (obviously) never really been my approach to withhold information. Typically if I have information that I haven’t posted yet it is because I’m either working on it or haven’t had the time to develop a profile in a way that makes it more easily viewable. I love playing Fantasy Baseball and I love winning leagues but that’s really never been my big thing. When you boil it down, I’m just not that competitive, at least in that way. I’m competitive in the sense that I want my opinion to be as accurate as possible, I want to be right as often as possible, and perhaps most important, if there’s something that can help me identify where I’m wrong, I’d like to know where it is, identify it, and adjust my own rankings. That’s the real intention of posting this: on the one hand, it does have something to do with giving information and enjoying that aspect of the game, but on the other hand, placing my personal ranks up for public scrutiny creates the easiest avenue for my rankings to be as accurate as possible. In simplistic terms: you get all my work, all my research, and all of my opinions placed simply in front of you with less work; I get you to read it over, identify possible flaws, fix my mistakes, and I get to manipulate ya'll into giving me more sources of information and allowing me to create at least to me what will be the best possible ranking set I can have come draft day. Now, if it’s a player like Story, Blackmon, Baez, Votto, Polanco, or someone that I have a fairly strong opinion on, most likely it’s not going to change without a very surprising bit of information I may have missed, but obviously I haven’t profiled every baseball player quite to the extent that I have guys like Polanco or Story. This thread and these ranks will help create an impetus by which I will be persuaded in various directions to make various more inquiries and, again, create what I believe to be the best possible ranking set. Projections -- This will be brief, because there isn’t necessarily one direct way I go about making projections. My typical path which I followed with most if not all of these players is to do the following: -Project BB% based on past performance, trends, and other patience metrics. -Project K% based on past performance, trends, and other patience and contact metrics. -Project BABIP based on past performance, trends, and predictors including Hard%, Oppo%, GB/LD/FB distribution, Speed, and more. -Project FB% based on past FB%’s and weighing trends. -Project HR/FB% based on career marks, recent trends, and distances -Project PAs -Formulate -Adjust The biggest one here is adjust. I do create a baseline with some sort of model, but for the most part, when my model (read: Calculator) spits out a baseline, I don’t just copy/paste it into my excel. I adjust. A ton of factors can go into these adjustments. Pitch specific data is the biggest that I’ve worked with more heavily this year, but as I said earlier, I just haven’t profiled everybody. So more or less, there are projections that are fairly close to the “baseline” which is pretty much my version of a Steamer or ZiPS, albeit with more weight in trends in players and of advanced stats metrics like Hard%, etc, and there are projections that I’ve worked on a lot and have moved up down and around to get to what I think is the fair projection to make for said player. I’m not worried to break from what a mathematical model spits out to me to create a projection I feel is more accurate for the player. Using My Ranks -- Relating Proj./Rank./ADP -- I find a lot if not most of the people who create their own projections model their Rankings heavily based on their projections. While my projections were done first, and no doubt informed my Rankings, I view them as almost mutually exclusive. Many players will have projections that suggest they should be ranked higher, lower, or differently. One primary factor that can go into this is safety. Rizzo is a prime example of someone who doesn’t have the greatest projection but still has a high ranking because the last few years aside from some stolen base fluctuation, he has been a metronome. A high upside guy I’m confident in like Keon Broxton will inevitably have a projection that would vastly over-earn their ranking because in general I can’t have a complete confidence in them achieving that upside. For the most part, my rankings represent the order in which I would draft with no outside pressuring or constantly in a vacuum, and my projections are a combination of a prediction and a method of balancing numbers so that I can figure out how to balance categories in a 5x5. When ADP comes into play things get really messy. I have many players ranked near 100 picks off of where they are currently ranked by Yahoo!’s draft room, so how do I adjust for that? I don’t believe in constantly passing on superior players in the hopes that they continuously slip, but if I rank players within a marginal range or find another player that I really like and could perhaps support a different path of categorical value, I can find a way to justify passing on someone I rank higher and hoping they slip another round. For example, I have Jose Ramirez ranked 110ish spots above where he’s ranked in Yahoo, but I also have Sanchez, Beltre and Hanley in that range. So if I were in a position where I felt like I could justify getting a little more power first, or getting one of the top catchers, I could justify doing so instead of getting Ramirez and hoping he slips. However, once we exit players that I consider to be of a similar quality, I will draft Ramirez. Even if it’s pick 80 and he’s ranked 160 by the website. If he’s in a tier by himself in my rankings, he’s a must draft. Period. Dot. End. Of. Story. Another thing in regards to rankings: I have a really hard time ranking pitchers alongside relief pitchers alongside hitters, because at a certain point it’s obviously categorical. If you pick a hitter but you really need a pitcher because I have them ranked higher, than you’re probably not doing the right thing. After the top 30-40 picks, where I’d take a pitcher gets really complex, so for the most part, the pitchers are scattered through my ranks, not completely at random, but I never evaluate pitchers versus hitters for my overall after a certain point. Same for closers after the first few tiers. These are three separate markets in a draft to me so the overlap has to do with the way the draft is going. After a point, I didn’t know what relievers would get jobs, but I wanted to reserve the spots for later, so you’ll notice I have some RP spots reserved for future use. I don’t know if this is the best way to go about it, but it’s the way I did it. Here are my rankings in an excel spreadsheet. I didn’t do pitching projections. Maybe I will maybe I won’t, but they’re so much more variable that it’s so frustrating to do: Top 250 w/ Offensive Projections Here are my rankings listed with blurbs. I wrote small blurbs for most but not all offensive players. The blurbs at times link to content on this forum that I have written previously. There are no links to outside websites other than Rotoworld Forum Posts. Most of the blurbs I have written within the past 24-36 hours so if anything reads weird, I apologize, and let me know because I’ll edit it. On both these documents it has a publication date at the top. Edits will change the date, i.e. “Published 2/20” will become “Editted 3/1” to acknowledge changes. This is largely a compilation of my profiles: Overall Top 250 w/ Blurbs I did not write any blurbs for starting pitchers. I decided instead to use the ones I had previously written for my SP Ranks: My SP Ranks And will also add to this my recent profile of Tanner Roark: Tanner Roark Outlook and Profile So cheers, have at it boys, like I said, the goal is to attract criticism with the intent of improving rankings. I got in a mind set that I just wanted to finally get this first pass out so I've been working pretty much non stop on that Google Doc for about 24-36 hours minus elements of sleeping so it may sound a little rushed but I hope it comes across well. Sorry if it lacks the humor, we can't all be @ChicksDigTheOPS
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    Noooooooo!!! Please god heal Jokic!!! Join me in prayer brothers: Our Jokic, who art in Denver, Hallowed be thy jump shot. Thy rebounds come, thy assists be done At home as it is away. Give us this day our daily fantasy points And forgive us who doubted you, as we forgive the jealous bosnian haters. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from playoff relegation. Amen
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    Charlotte probably did it so they can meet the minimum salary floor and make some cash doing it. If an NBA team is below the salary floor, they still have to distribute that difference to the players on the team. Let's say if the salary floor is $50 million and you are only paying $40 million, then you will have to give $10 million to the current players on your team. For the Cavs, it makes sense for them to give Hornets cash so Hornets can waive Anderson for them. Cavs are a luxury tax team, so Cavs have to pay luxurytax on top of the salary Anderson makes. Anderson makes $1.5 million this year, so for Cavs who is a repeat tax payer they probably have to pay another $5-6 million in luxury tax for having him. If they Cavs waive Anderson themselves, they still have to pay him the salary + the luxury tax, let's say for a total of $7.5 million. Instead of doing that, they trade Anderson + (for example) $3 million to the Hornets. Hornets then pay off Anderson's contract with that cash. Hornets make about $2.125 million ($3 million - prorated $1.5 million/year) for doing the transaction. Cavs save about $4.5 million (saving of $7.5 luxury tax - the cost of $3 million) It's a win-win trade in terms of finance. Hornets make a cool couple million dollars for the trouble. Cavs save several millions in luxury tax and open up a roster spot for a potential mid-season veteran free agent like Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, etc.
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    A 1st round pick for Bogdanovic. Everyone take a moment to laugh at the Sacramento Kings again.
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    Sac is really high on something that's for sure.
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    No worries bro. Insight or not, I am here to share information I find related to specific player. I guess you don't want updates and rather have nonsense chatter.
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    Like... literally me. Maybe not the direct extent, but the usage of Kris Bryant to support your argument is hilarious because it doesn't do anything of the sort... I believe in 2015 that there were clear reasons to believe Bryant would make leaps forward in 2016 and they happened. It was predictable. I made a mammoth post on why this was predictable. If you're conclusions on most players are the same as Story, i.e.: Then there's nothing I can do to form a relevant argument. If you just go on your gut.. I mean good for you but if I see evidence that goes in an entirely different direction that's far more valuable. In terms of ACTUAL data, you referenced an Article from April 27th, 2016. There's a huge fallacy in that because how Trevor Story adjusted to those adjustments is the primary reasons where I just am not at all concerned in the things you're concerned with. The fact that you're citing an article from April 27th when he played for about three months afterward is a huge issue because it ignores everything that happened after April 27th, which is the main reason for the hype, not what happened before. Firstly, the range of BAs is far too low to me. I project story to hit right around that .269 clip and that's a conservative estimate to me. Trevor Story could easily hit .285 and I wouldn't blink at all. It would be completely unsurprising. Your notion that you're "buying Story at his ceiling" is simply untrue. If Story is a .285/40/15/100/100 hitter this year he's more than likely going to be at or near the first round going into 2018. Right now he's falling to me consistently in the third round in Yahoo leagues. That's not buying at the ceiling. If I drafted him at pick #15 I'd be buying at or near the ceiling. You're just completely ignoring the adjustments and improvements Story made throughout the 2016 season. Walk rate and strikeout rate stabilize rather quickly. Fangraphs suggests that BB% stabilizes in merely 120 PAs and K% in 1/2 that amount of time. Story had 415 PAs in 2016. In his first 209 PAs (Beginning of Season --> May 28th) Story had a 6.7% K% and a 34.0% K%. In his final 206 PAs (May 28th --> End of Season) Story had a 10.2% BB% and a 28.6% K% In those final 206 PAs he had a BABIP of .330 which is completely sustainable in Coors Field. His xBABIP, which does not account for Coors, was .338, meaning that his batted ball data suggests that, in his final 206 PAs, he was more UNLUCKY than LUCKY. In those 206 PAs he had a .274/.363/.559 slash line with 14 HRs and 5 SBs. This does not include his initial hot streak in the season obviously and to me, there is nothing flukey about any of the numbers in the data. If you were to extrapolate those numbers to 600 PAs you'd have: .274, 41 HRs, 14.5 SBs. Story has excellent Plate Discipline which people just seem to be overwhelmingly ignoring. His BB% increased as the season went on, reaching double digits in his personal second half (part of the adjustment to the article you posted). On the season, his Chase Rate on pitches outside the zone was 2.5% Below Average and his Swing% in the Zone was 0.1% Above league average, so he swung in the zone at a league average rate and chased much better than league average. The Ks are all directly tied to contact. Two primary reasons why this is not a concern: 1.) Hitters with good PD can make up for Contact% by being patient, taking walks, and getting the right pitches. 2.) Coors field reduces the movement on breaking pitches and thus increases Contact% for hitters while at home. A third reason: Ignoring everything specific to Trevor Story, I've been workign for a while on a piece about first year to second year players and how they improve in terms of K%, Whiff% and Contact%, and so far it seems that the majority of players do improve in these categories. So in general, as a second year player without glaring signs of otherwise and showcasing plus Plate Discipline, I would expect Story's contact% to improve. As is, and this is the third time I'm posting this, Story's advanced Plate Discipline metrics already suggest he's in line for substantial improvements in terms of K%: If he repeats those metrics and still carries a K% over even 28% I'll be more than reasonably surprised. I expect a pretty large decline to at least what he was doing in the second half (again HIS second half not THE second half), which was 28.6%, and if I had to wager, I'd expect it to drop a bit lower. This is the primary reason why I think it's hilarious that you post an article from April 27th: Because to me, the very article that you use as a means to attack Story is the very reason that I"m so excited about Story: Because he READJUSTED to the league after the league adjusted to him. That is the mark of a true big league hitter. For the upteenth time TBBT said it earlier in this thread: it's just incredibly surprising to me that a hitter who did all the things I typically look for to determine success is being looked at as if he didn't do those things: 1.) He reduced his K% 2.) He increased his BB% 3.) Both of these were attached to an adjustment in approach that was reactionary to the league, a true mark of a big league hitter. 4.) He's shown ability to improve in terms of contact and Whiff% (While Story did Whiff at more Fastballs in his second half, his Whiff% on Change-Ups reduced from 15.66% to 9.09%, on Sliders from 19.55% to 17.91%, and on Curves from 28.40% to 7.69%. While the slider gain is marginal, the Curve and Change-Up are highly significant. His lowest SLG on any individual pitch type was .483). 5.) He showed consistent power. 6.) He showed consistent speed. 7.) He showed a consistently plus approach at the plate 8.) He produced exit velocities at an elite level throughout the season. And finally. 9.) He plays in ******** Coors. Like what do you actually have to see that you haven't seen already? Now will he carry some pretty stark home/road splits? Sure he will, but so do a lot of hitters in Coors. The fact of the matter is that even if we only see it at home, the 11.5% BB% and 24.8% K% that he showed at Home in that second half with 12 HRs, and a .344 BA will be good enough to carry his away numbers fairly easily and justify his ADP. Plenty of Coors hitters justify their year end stats with stark Home/Road splits, there's a direct effect that Coors has that reduces your away numbers. The idea that he could just do what he did last season for a full year gives you the idea of where the even higher ceiling comes from. I don't mean this as an insult so don't take it as one, but I'm glad you said it was a "gut feeling" because to me, a "gut feeling" is about the only way that I can justify the opinion that he's just going to fall off a cliff and not produce at a 3rd/4th round value. There's ample evidence to support the legitimacy of what Story did and the ample upside. There's very little evidence to suggest he's going to fall apart and no one's been able to show me really any reason to the contrary of anything I've said.
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    Reporters following him into the showers. "Yes, yes, it looks as though he's washing himself in all the usual places."
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    I seriously thought this was a player name and was prepared to declare it the greatest player name ever. Article was an interesting read. The outlook could be good!
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    You're right. You are definitely not a medical expert.
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    Bro, you are a "Hall of Famer" here with almost 9,000 posts and you just asked whether the acquisition of Bojan Bogdonovic will impact Bradley Beal at all? WTF
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    I have waited for Klay Thompson to get over his early season funk. I bought low on Ricky Rubio. I have put up with Jrue Holiday's early low scoring output. I have held onto Evan Fournier. If this season taught me anything, my patience will be rewarded. And I sure as hell will be waiting for this stud to start producing. Who's with me?
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    This guy is like a return from injury master.
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    Nice looking team. Now shop Richards, Hill and Nola for some more power bats.
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    This may is a serious knee injury that would be season-ending and cost him a lot of months. This is a s---y comment.
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    No, but I know seeing this thread bumped randomly in the middle of the day just freaked me the f*** out.
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    I honestly don't know if you're trolling, or if you really don't get what these people are trying to say. Either way, I'll bite. When people compare young players to established players, they are never (or hardly ever) saying they are currently at the same level. What they are saying is that their style of play is similar enough, and reminiscent of the established player at an early age, to assume that they will have a similar career trajectory. Nobody thought Ben Simmons would be MVP candidate 2016-2017 Lebron James his rookie year, but they do think he will develop into that type of player. Let's look at some factual data now. Here's Marc Gasol's shot chart from this year that you posted. That's a good amount of 3s for a 7'1" center! But, let's look at his shot chart from the past 2 years... Here's his shot chart from 2015-2016. Very little 3s, but a good amount of long 2s. Let's go back one more year. You'll notice that there is a similar amount of long 2s, but a little bit less, noticeably at the top of the key. Finally, let's look at Marc's 2010-2011 season. His 3rd year in the league! At which point in time he was 25-26 years old! Not only have the 3s all but gone away, but those long 2s have disappeared as well. With the exception of those free throw line jumpers. Now here's Ivica's shot chart that you posted, which combines his total shots taken from the whopping 18 games (221 minutes!) he's played in. Marc Gasol's 2010-2011 shot chart, again, at which point he was 25-26 years old, is somewhat similar to a 19 year old Ivica Zubac's. Coupled that with the fact that Ivica has shown the ability to step out and shoot, be it in the NBADL, the very few jumpers he's taken in the NBA, or his clean and consistent stroke from the free throw line, and people are under the impression that Ivica will be a very capable shooter in the NBA, and not just an at the rim big man. Hopefully, this clears up any misunderstandings!
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    Well, now we know who Nikola's mom is.
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    It just looks so funny to me to look at all previous discussions/comments like "huge upside/ROS value" and "drop XXX for him" and now everyone be like "drop him". He's just out for ONE game (a rest after playing both back-to-back) and the season has a long way to go..
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    I don't really disagree with your larger point, but I hate this talking point. Players "can't" until they do, then they're players that "can". The no star 2004 Pistons couldn't beat the Laker superteam until they did. Wade was a pretty good fifth overall pick until he took over for Caron Butler in a playoff series, then he was like we think of Lillard now, but wasn't really good enough to the best player on a championship team until suddenly he was. Steph Curry wasn't going to challenge Jordan for maybe the best offensive season ever until he did. I agree I don't see the Raps winning but you never know what players can be together until it's after the fact. Then everyone scrambles to be among the first to say they saw all the signs ahead of time.
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    When I saw Axe Bat, I thought "Axe Elf" took on a new persona for a second, until I opened it. I'm relieved.
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    C'mon man. That's not really somethin that should be said
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    Chris Paul got his surgery done at Kerlan-Jobe in Los Angeles, by renowned Orthopedic Surgeon Dr. Steve Shin. The name of the surgeon rang a bell...I knew I had read his name with respect to other sports surgeries. It involved the use of new medical technology ("suture tape") in the case of torn ligaments in the hand. http://fansided.com/2017/01/30/baseballs-next-miracle-surgery/ Educational Material from Dr. Shim's site tl;dr -- Rose colored lenses, but maybe, just maybe, CP3 is able to return in 5 weeks too... surgery was Jan. 18. 5 weeks is Feb 22. New medical technology at least gives me optimism that he'll be back sooner rather than later. 6 weeks is March 1. Playoffs start for me March 6.
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    Well, he's got 90 years to make it.
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    It's a sad state of affairs, really. As OP said it's all about timing. From a physics standpoint, obviously, the mechanics should all flow together in a smooth, chain-like fashion. The obsession with velocity has created a catch 22. To have a shot, most kids have to have velo. Most kids don't generate off the charts velo naturally. Now starting at a young age they are being taught to create a whip-like effect with their arm (inverted W; pronating the forearm, etc). Boom - more velo generated. Boom - unnatural torque placed on the UCL & shoulder. Just a matter of time before it all breaks down.
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    Brady vs Montana is an interesting debate, simply on pure numbers its Brady, and dont give me this losing before you get to the Super Bowl is better than losing the Super Bowl. I watched Montana a lot, in person - have watched Brady a lot. Knew football well in both eras. Here are some thoughts, tips, etc. * They were very similar in that I think a lot of "fans" of the game, would probably not think they were even the best QB of that era, in the 80's most would consider Elway or Marino better pure QB's, if you saw the 30 for 30, Niners actually had brief discussion with Colts about trading Montana for Elway. Brady has had a little bit of that too. They have won the most, maybe had the most winning careers of the 80's, but for pure eyeball test, probably fans of both eras would say a few others were better. * Not only did Montana lose some title games and not get to as many SB's, he was benched and boo'd in the 87 Divisional game against the Vikings and had a really bad 3-game stretch in playoff years 85-87 was 0-3 with OTD 4 picks and a rating about 50 over those 3 seasons in the playoffs. * Tuck Rule - ironically benefited both in its interpretation or existence at the time. The Brady fumble vs Oakland overturned, went on to win SB, in the 81 Championship game vs the Cowboys, after "the catch" Cowboys first play goes across midfield to like the 43-45 of the Niners, the tackle was actually also a horse collar which today would of been another 15 on top of that but wasnt a rule then and neither was tuck rule, and look at White's fumble on next play is pretty much identical to tuck rule of Brady. * Good Luck Bad Luck - Roger Craigs Fumble, the lousy PI call vs the Skins - maybe cost 49ers two more trips to SB, but Eddie Murray's miss, the Bengals secondary player who dropped sure pick down in Miami SB, Brady obviously two recent SB wins "run the ball"...the Chargers defensive player who fumbled a pick to give Pats second life ended up in a title game appearance. * Incredible help by team - Vinatieri's clutch kicks those first 3 SB's, the 49ers famed goal line stand in their first Sb. * Salary Cap, Free Agency a factor now, but in Montana's mid 80's 49ers lost some guys to competing USFL. * Divisions and comp - I think Montana's Conference was tougher, had to go against Belichek's defenses with the Giants, had that great Bears team, had the Gibbs Skins and last days of Landry's Cowboys before they fell off in mid 80's, Division was pretty tough too, Rams and Dickerson early to mid years, towards the end those Mora Saints with the great linebackers and Rams were still relevant. I think both are amont the greatest careers for a QB to ever play, not sure either are the greatest QBs ever, in terms of just pure ability, but cant argue with their storied careers. I think comparing careers, Brady's is better.
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    Horny can't decide if he wants the Willy or the KOQ.
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    I think Miguel Cabrera at 15 is too deep. I'd love to grab him with my second pick, which that ADP is saying is possible. All that fuss because he turns 34? 34 isn't that bad, he's not 44. At 33 he put up another monster season. If he's healthy he is super reliable to bat higher than .310, with 30+ HR and 100+ RBis I get that Donaldson is younger, but it is unlikely JD bats higher than .310. Trea Turner is too unproven. Harper is a crapshoot. Miggy should be grabbed in the first round IMO.
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