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  1. 17 points
    Tonight we have the first official NFL kickoff. I try to have a rough rankings heading into preseason and then make major adjustments over the next 3 weeks, in preparation for my money drafts. Feel free to share yours, argue mine, call me names, whatever. Anyone who can make a strong case for a player being too high or too low, will be taken into serious consideration and likely have direct impact on my rankings, if you can provide a compelling argument. *Yahoo Default Scoring with 1PPR* In past years I've tried to explain my ranking philosophy, this year I think I found a way to make it visual for people to see. Take a look at the QB column, I have the first 12 ranked straight up. From there I've split the remaining QBs into 2 columns, Upside vs Reliability. There are multiple mentalities on the QB position, mine is fairly straight forward, if I don't have a top 5 QB, then I want 100% upside, 0% floor. In these scenario's in the past, I've always ranked highly volatile QBs higher than highly reliable QBs. Rivers is a low end QB1 nearly every year, but if I'm waiting on QB, I'm not interested in safe, boring, etc. Give me the guy with the 10% chance to jump into the top 6 this year out of nowhere. IF that doesn't work out... I'll go find Rivers production off the waiver wire from Bortles, Carr, Eli, etc. For me it's simple, if I wait on QB I want a lotto ticket, not a reliable low ceiling producer. If you are the type of player who prefers the latter option, there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. Instead of debating Rivers vs Tyrod in a ceiling/floor discussion I'm just going to split my ranks into a 'ceiling' column, and a 'floor' column, and rank them within their 'classification'. If you like safer, reliable, and consistent weekly low end production, go down the right column. If you prefer the risk/reward mentality and want to roll the dice with high variances, go down the left column. If you disagree with my columns, let me know why, I'm all ears. A strong argument could be made that Smith, Stafford, and Big Ben should be in the right column rather than separated above it. Since we're talking QBs, I'm likely higher on Cam and Cousins than most. Cam has had an outlier high and an outlier low in my opinion. Outside of those 2 years, he's basically a consistent top 4 QB. The addition of McCaffrey seemed to help a lot last year. The return of Olsen is welcomed and an argument can be made that Cam has the best WR corps of his career for 2018. (Steve Smith aside) I would like to hope CJA is an improvement in the run game over J.Stew but I'm not holding my breath. Cousins going to MIN gives him an array of weapons he's never had before between Cook, Rudolph, Diggs, Thielen, and hopefully Treadwell can finally pay dividends on that 1st round investment. In any other year, Rodgers would be in an Elite tier by himself. But Rodgers has never been Rodgers without Jordy. We've seen Jordy go down and tank Rodgers' season, we've seen Rodgers go down and tank Jordy's season. I've been a huge Rodgers supporter in the past, and still think he's the best 'thrower' of the football in the league right now, but the loss of Jordy is simply an unknown that's enough to drop him out of his own tier, but not enough to drop him from the #1 spot. I'm ranking Luck as if he's 100% right now. I'm ranking Wilson as if Baldwin doesn't miss a game. Some might say I'm down on Watson, I get it, I won't fight you. I'm notorious for disregarding statistical outliers and short term success, in favor of track records... but can't deny the upside that exists. He's my 4th ranked QB, but is a DND because of the reality of how a draft room works. He'll never be on the board when Cam/Cousins aren't, so he'll never be on my team. Nature of the beast. I don't foresee any issues with the TE ranks. I'm sure some will take issue with ranking him 12th overall, but last year, in only 13 games he scored 225 points, 17.3 PPG. There are only 3 WRs and 8 RBs in the game that scored more than him on a weekly basis. But there are plenty of breakout WR and RBs every single year. There are no Gronkowski's to be found in the late rounds or on the WW mid season. Positional PPG advantages win fantasy matchups. Just to drive this point home, Gronk scored more points per game last year than Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, and AJ Green, at a position where you can NOT find that production anywhere else. All 3 of these WR's continue to be drafted higher than Gronk though. Wide Receivers Keenan Allen deserves to be higher in his tier, but is automatically put to the bottom of it due to his injury risk. Just how I do it. Larry Fitzgerald is a similar outlook, he deserves to be higher, but due to his age, O line, new QB, I just put him at the bottom of it. I'm ranking Hilton as if Luck is 100% healthy, will adjust accordingly based on preseason and how Luck's arm/body responds. Cooks... I assume many will disagree with this one. For 3 years straight he's averaged 120 targets, 76 receptions, 1100 yards, and 8 TDs, despite being traded, multiple offenses, 2 (albeit great) QBs. I didn't buy it last year when people thought the sky was falling because of the trade, and I don't buy it this year. I don't think he has the upside he had previously, and I understand that Kupp has a cult following, but I think Cooks should easily lead the WRs of this team, and see no reason he shouldn't continue to produce, unless Goff takes a step backwards, which is very possible. Josh Gordon. Should be #1 overall, must be a typo. Thielen and Hill. I don't feel comfortable with either of these WRs but their production can't be denied. I have Diggs too low, Cousins spreads it around so much I'm not convinced he can make a single guy top 12. I'm ranking Baldwin as if he's 100% healthy. Everyone loves his year end fantasy totals. I despise his week to week roller coaster rides, that's just personal preference and for each individual to decide what type of week to week volatility they are willing to endure from their 2nd/3rd round pick. Adams. I just don't see what everyone else sees. This started in 2015 when Jordy went down in preseason. Adams ADP jumped into the 3rd/4th round if I recall, and I thought people were crazy. You don't just replace Jordy Nelson and say 'good enough'. He sucked that year. 2016 he 75/997. Not impressive, but when you score 12 TDs it vaults you into rare territory. 2017 he goes 74/885. Even worse, but again... double digit TDs. I think he has the situation to be a top 12 WR again, but I do not chase TDs, and I don't draft a WR 7th among his position who can't support my team on receptions/yards, because if the TDs don't come, you're SOL. There are still REALLY good WRs still available in the 2nd round, why take this risk. Especially when the best RZ threat in the league in Jimmy Graham is now a Packer. Part of this falls back on the concern with Rodgers and the Packers as a whole without Jordy. What happens when Adams see's better coverage, still no run game. Just too many potential outcomes for this kid to invest so much. Top 12 is very possible but if he goes 75/900/6 it shouldn't shock anyone given his production so far, and would put him at risk of falling out of the top 24 WRs for last year, and those who know the bigger picture know that 2017 and 2016 were already atrocious WR years in the grand scheme, 12.5 PPG is out of the top 30 on a weekly basis last year, would make him a WR4 in other years. 7th WR off the board, 19th overall... not a chance. The next tier is assumed #1 WRs of their own teams, in questionable situations, ranked by perceived upside. The following tier is #2 WRs on their own teams that have been reliable producers, but are unlikely to become the #1 WR of their own team. Garcon and KB are assumed #1s but in really questionable places given their teams. I'm too low on Marvin Jones probably. Beyond that it's pretty straight forward. Once the tiers stop they aren't in a specific order yet, I just haven't made it that far, or need to see more before I can accurately value them. I think Amendola is significantly underrated taking over the Slot role for Miami that Landry just produced the #4 WR season from. I'm hoping for a T.Pryor comeback. Nice lotto ticket in my opinion. Need to delete J.Matthews. Running Backs L.Bell has done nothing to lose the #1 spot in my opinion. Recency bias has pushed Gurley too high, slightly bloated by TDs. Bell gets more carries, more targets, and more catches, I value those more when predicting the future than TDs, 60 touches is a massive difference, holdout and contract mean nothing to me. Gurley is a beast but I'm not erasing that 1 down year, even if it wasn't his fault. DJ and Bell when on the field have produced at elite levels every time. DJ has never finished a full season as a starter. I can't rank Zeke higher than these 3 in PPR league, he just doesn't get used the same way (yet). Fournette at 5 is probably not the popular thing to do, but it's what makes the most sense to me. Injuries are a concern here as well. Barkley... I need to see him take a snap, we'll go from there. I don't think McCoy misses any time from the off field allegations. Bad team, Bad QB, bad WRs... who cares, McCoy has been an elite mainstay for a decade now. I understand wanting to get off the train a year early rather than a year late, but I think we've got another year minimum. I don't like Melvin Gordon. I just don't think he's as good as people think, but the volume is there, and he had a great season once he finally got going last year. Mark Ingram should be the same guy he's been for the last couple years. I went over the NO backfield at length last year with how many touches their are to go around. Kamara would wildly productive last year, and it didn't stop Ingram from being a top 6 back in the league. Bell got suspended 2 weeks and fell to the late 1st. Zeke got suspended 6 weeks and fell to the late 2nd. Ingram gets suspended 4 weeks and he's dropped all the way to the 5th??? By then he'll be my 3rd or 4th RB anyways, and the suspension doesn't even matter. Late season matters more than the early season. Everyone loves McKinnon, but I'm skeptical after seeing him fail so many times before. Understand the role, the opportunity, the spark score, and the effect of Shanny, but... Someone else can take that risk. I'm an Ajayi believer. Last years trade debacle negates the entire season for me. Giving him another shot. Lamar Miller is an enigma. I can't even. Howard is criminally low I suppose, but he reminds me of Alfred Morris. He doesn't catch the ball, lots of talk about not fitting into the new scheme, Cohen this. I'll pass but won't argue with anyone who wants to take him way earlier, I understand it. Mixon. Another player who everyone in the world but me seems to love. I've watched tape to try and see if I'm missing something, maybe my scouting sucks, but I don't see anything special. Improved down the stretch, but Gio is still there, and the Bengals haven't ridden a single RB in quite some time. Most likely to make me look dumb at seasons end. I was high on Hyde last year, ranking him top 10 at this exact time last season. Was laughed at, dismissed, ignored, etc. Top 10 RB. yes the injury risk is real. Yes the Browns suck, but... know who sucked more than the Browns last year? The 9ers, well until Jimmy G showed up at least. Although Jimmy G had no effect on Hyde's production. Duke will dominate 3rd down work, but I'm not convinced Chubb has any notable effect until he proves otherwise. Hyde won't get the targets/catches he got last year, but on paper the Browns team is really good, and if Hyde can stay on the field, I think he can easily be an RB2, currently going in the 8th round. Henry vs Dion. There's already too many pages on this. Long story short, it's a committee, and I believe they cannibalize each other. This is where the split happens, and in my big board we're looking at the start of round 5. Left side is the rookies, of which 2-3 will undoubtedly break out this year and become top 12-20 guys. Rounds 4-7 are the perfect time to take your pick if you want to take your shot. If you went WR/TE/QB early and need a reliable RB you cna count on to just get points every week, perhaps look at the right column. Many of the rookies have undefined roles as of today, I've listed them in the order I felt was clearest path to touches, for the time being. PreSeason will drastically alter this section of my rankings. Crow is way too underrated in my opinion. Lynch was a bit rusty last year, but his tape looks good, some advanced metrics he fared pretty well in, and the Raiders can't possibly be that terrible again. I don't know what's going on with Doug Martin, but Lynch could surprise some people this year if the offense doesn't implode again. Below that is a tier of 'role' players that I haven't quite sorted out yet into the overall ranks. Duke is too low. Dixon is the only BAL RB I'm interested in. Might not win the job till mid season, might not ever win the job, but I liked his tape a lot. Then we get into CoP backs, JAGs who would fall into more touches in the event of an injury, some pure handcuffs who have zero value until an injury, and the pure upside out of nowhere guys like Hines, Ballage. Looks like I forgot Gore. 2 of these 3 names are a good segway into why I'm not high on Drake. That should cover it for now. Again, this in an extremely rough draft, preseason will drastically alter this list over the next 3 weeks. The overall list is kind of just cut/pasted tiers to give myself an idea, which will also be updated as well with preseason, more research, TC reports, mock drafts, etc etc.
  2. 15 points
  3. 14 points
  4. 12 points
    You must be fun at fantasy football draft parties
  5. 12 points
    Just wanted to reaffirm that Vladdy Jr. isn't being held back by his D. Not sure why it's being perpetuated (more than likely a combination of his size\build and out of date scouting reports). He's actually a positive defender at 3B in 2018 (1.2 Fielding Runs Above Average across AA\AAA), and essentially would be in line with what the Jays have gotten from Yangervis Solarte at 3B this year (i.e. ~flat FRAA, underwhelming range rating, positive error rate), save for the fact that he has a better arm and is far more athletic.Everything is ready for a callup. The only thing to wait for is the service time, which is perfectly acceptable given the state of the rest of the roster. Had they been in a hypothetical race for the second wild card (somehow without Donaldson), he would have been up. On a team that is going nowhere, there is no incentive for the organization to call him up and waste service time this year when they can get 7 years (6 years is standard team control over a player but if you call up a player shortly after the season starts, the team can gain an extra year since the player will have something like 5.89 years of service time by the beginning of the 6th year in the majors that he has played and to reach free agency, the player needs to cross the 6.00 years threshold). The reality is that Vladdy Jr. is being held back in the minors due to service time concerns and he will likely be on the Kris Bryant/Ronald Acuna timeline whereby they got called up a few weeks into the season which secured their organizations an extra year of control over the player.
  6. 12 points
    When Cashman heard Harper was available
  7. 12 points
    Red Sox must retaliate by trading for James Shields
  8. 11 points
    Between that and a positive 1.8 Fielding Runs Above Average grade at both AA and AAA, I think we are moving past him being a DH prospect only. He's plenty fine at 1st and one of the best slugging prospects in the minors. Oh, and he hit another HR yesterday and is now up to 324/.387/.714 with 10 HRs last 26 games at AAA (post-all-star break).
  9. 11 points
    Hi - I am here to overreact and move dudes up my rankings
  10. 11 points
    i'm more worried with how you post your comments in bold.
  11. 11 points
    I’d start you against the Mets.
  12. 11 points
  13. 11 points
    The timing of this is...AWESOME.
  14. 11 points
    Well, he should undoubtedly dominate all the Dominicans and Puerto Ricans.
  15. 10 points
    The same AJG who has accumulated 8213 yards in 7 seasons, averaging 1174 per season? The AJG who has scored 57 TDs, averaging 8 TDs per season? The AJG who's played 102 of 112 games in seven years? The guy who's now going at an all-time low of mid-to-late Round 2? The monster talent who refuses to be tackled, and the perennial focal point of the Bengals/Dalton netting 31 games of 100+ yards? Or a different AJG?
  16. 10 points
  17. 10 points
    Gotta love rotoworld and their timely advice. Kinda funny as this is their "recommendations" from yesterday and today. Poor schmucks who have to rely on their information. Seth Lugo on Sunday: Seth Lugo scattered a pair of hits and fired a scoreless ninth inning to record his first save of the year in the Mets' win over the Marlins on Sunday. Lugo was called upon to preserve a one-run lead in the ninth inning after Robert Gsellman fired a scoreless eighth. He immediately gave up a leadoff single to pinch-hitter J.T. Realmuto, but got the ensuing batter, Rafael Ortega, to ground into a double-play. Miguel Rojas delivered a two-out base knock, but Lugo induced a game-ending worm-burner off the bat of Starlin Castro to slam the door. He needed just 17 pitches to close this one out. The 28-year-old is the heavy favorite to close for the Mets down the home stretch with Anthony Swarzak on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation. He's 3-3 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 78/26 K/BB ratio in 81 1/3 innings. Aug 12 Gsellman on Monday: Robert Gsellman - R - Mets Robert Gsellman pitched a perfect ninth for a save Monday against the Yankees. Gsellman couldn't go more that two straight appearances without allowing a run in the latter part of June and the entire month of July, but he's on a nice run of late, through 6 2/3 scoreless innings in six appearances this month. Anthony Swarzak could reenter the mix for saves soon, but Gsellman is the clear favorite for now.
  18. 10 points
    I'm not sure where people get the idea that Pete Carroll is some kind of wild card with how he uses his RB's, or that he uses RBBC or "hot hand" or whatever else you want to call it. I guess it was last year's dumpster fire that has given people the idea Carroll's backfields are unpredictable, but in reality he has always rode one back at a time, and the main obstacle for him doing this consistently with one RB has been health of the players. Going back to the Marshawn Lynch days, Carroll rode him into the ground. People would regularly criticize Carroll for how he over-used Lynch, and how he was seemingly running the tires off him unnecessarily. Just to take a more in-depth look at Carroll's RB usage, I dug up some data from the last 3 seasons: 2012: Bellcow Lynch averaged almost 20 carries per game over the season. 2013: Bellcow Lynch averaged almost 19 carries per game over the entire season. 2014: Bellcow Lynch averaged over 17 carries per game the whole season. 2015: This was Lynch's last year in Seattle. He had 18 and 15 carries in Weeks 1 and 2, and then got injured in Week 3. Rawls was then next man up and had 16 carries in Week 3, 17 carries in Week 4, and 23 in Week 5, before Lynch came back for Week 6. Lynch then carried 17, 27, and 21 times in Weeks 6, 7, and 8, and then was basically out for the rest of the regular season after their Week 9 bye. Week 10 was a mash up of Lynch and Rawls due to Lynch getting injured, but from Week 11 through 14 Rawls was back to being the lead back with 30, 21, and 19 carries. During Week 14 Rawls broke his ankle was out IR'ed, and Pete had to again go to the next man up, Christine Michael. In Week 15 Michael rushed 16 times, Week 16 was one of the rare outliers where Michael led the team with only 6 carries (due to a strange game script), and Week 17 Michael rushed 17 times. Overall on the year, the "lead back" averaged just over 17 carries per game, and only changed hands due to injury to the lead back. If you remove the Week 10 and Week 14 games where the lead back was injured mid-game, causing a split in the workload, the average goes up to almost 19 carries a game for the lead back. 2016: Lynch retired and Rawls started the year as the lead back with 12 carries early in Week 1, before suffering another major injury. Christine Michael was again next man up, and got lead back workload right away with 15 carries in Week 1, followed by 10, 20, 18, 18, 16, and 10 carries in the following weeks. Week 9 Michael again lead the team in carries, but this was a stinker for the Hawks and he only saw 5 carries in a game that was carried by the defense. By Week 10, Rawls was only 1 week away, and maybe trying to out-Belichick the man himself Carroll ended up turning to CJ Prosise for 17 carries. Week 10 Rawls was back and put up 14, 12, 15, 12, and 21 carries the next 5 weeks. The only weeks in 2016 that got muddied much were Weeks 16 and 17, where Rawls still led with 8 carries each week, but was clearly not 100% healthy and less effective, and split time with Alex Collins. Overall the "lead back" role changed hands a few more times, but again it was almost always due to injury (or an injured player coming back). While the lead back job wasn't as fruitful as 2015, the role still averaged almost 14 carries per game, which is including weeks where injury caused mid-game changes. 2017: Last year was the year that I'm guessing makes everyone think Carroll likes to run a committee - but the real issue was a mixture of injuries (again), and just really poor performances. Eddie Lacy was signed with the idea that he would be the lead back, and he stunk himself to a 2.6 YPC average. Chris Carson broke away from the pack briefly and had 20 carries in Week 2, followed up by 11 and 12 carries the following weeks, and looked like he was going to run away with the lead back job before getting injured. Rawls had some spurts of usage, but was nearly as ineffective as Lacy, with a 2.7 YPC average. By the end of the season Carroll was so desperate for someone to emerge from the pack that he could lean on that he ended up giving Mike Davis over 12 carries per game in the final 5 weeks, because he was the only one who could break off more than 4 YPC. Overall, it seems clear to me that Pete Carroll wants to have a bellcow, and wants to have a RB that he can lean on for 15+ carries a game. The only real obstacle in recent years that has stood in his way is the health of his RB's. We also can see from Rawls' history that upon becoming the lead back, even after getting injured and the next man up performing well, Rawls always came back to his job later in the year / the next year. The most effective lead back that Carroll had in 2017, until getting injured, was Chris Carson. The RB that has been practicing with the 1's this training camp has been Carson. Beat writers are saying it's Carson. Week 1 of preseason Carson performed a step above the rest. Everything for me is pointing to Carson being the lead back, and not only that, but Carson getting a solid amount of touches - not some RBBC. The only factor in this whole thing that is propping up Penny is where he was drafted, and fantasy football speculation. Yet you can still get Carson in the 8th or 9th round, which by the way has climbed steadily in the past week from the 11th round. Get in on this value while you still can, if you're drafting this early. Carroll wants someone to succeed as being his bellcow, and right now he has his sights on Carson, and so far Carson has not disappointed. TL;DR: Carroll isn't a RBBC guy, or a 'who gets hot' guy, or any of that. He wants to ride a lead back into the ground. All the reports, current, and 2017 usage point to Carson being that guy. Does the team have a poor track record of keeping RB's healthy? For sure. But for something you can't really predict, and for the value of where you can draft Carson right now, I'm buying everywhere while the price is still artificially low.
  19. 10 points
    It's not worth the effort. First it was that the Jays need a good defender because they have GB pitchers. Then it on fast players can maintain such a high BABIP. Then it was his HR/FB rate shows incoming regression. Then it was how his home park is the reason his has such a high average. Then it was that the Jays are a small market team. Then it was that he's only hitting .286 in like 3 games at AAA. The whole time maintaining that Vlad is "abysmal" defensively. I finally decided there was no point in responding anymore with that Byron Buxton comparison which is downright laughable. How to interpret statistics, sample size fallacies, defensive stats of the Jays and Vlad, minor league scouting reports, weighted offensive statistics have all been brought up and the guy just ignores them.
  20. 10 points
    When asked why he replaced Rondon with Osuna at closer, Hinch said, "Rondon blew way too many games for the Cubs when he was with them."
  21. 10 points
    I've owned Nathaniel Lowe for the last 2 months. I was so worried that what he was doing in HiA was a fluke until I dug into him and have been watching just about every AB he's taken with Montgomery. On the OFFENSIVE end (besides having 20 grade speed and being best suited as a full time DH because of his atrocious defense), Lowe is looking more and more like the perfect blend of high AVG, massive power and absoluely elite plate discipline with one of the best approaches of all 1B in the minors (and other positions too). Just look at his stats on the year. I separated his stats between HiA and AA because he didn't struggle at all after his promotion and he has had zero need to adjust to AA. Lowe just kept on hitting like he was still in HIA. Looking at the stats we can officially say that it wasn't just a hot streak in HIA. This is Lowes hitting profile and its looking elite. Im hoping the Rays promote him to AAA since AA is not a challenge for him. But them promoting a prospect more then one level in a season is extremely rare but they have seemed a bit more willing to move prospects that are hitting well faster. So a promotion to AAA should happen this season. Hitting Grades (Current/Future) Hit Tool: 55/60 Raw Power: 75/75 In Game Power: 55/65 Speed: 20/20 Plate Discipline: 55/60 Defense: 40/45 Arm: 50/50 Overall: 50/55 HIA 2018 Stats(Split stats because seeing how he handled his promotion in whats considered the biggest jump in the minors from HiA to AA is jaw dropping) HIA #'s ----- AA #'s PA - 220 ----- PA - 203 AB - 194 ----- AB - 171 AVG - .356 ----- AVG - .333 OBP - .432 ----- OBP - .433 ISO - .232 ----- ISO - .281 HITS - 69 ----- HITS - 57 1B - 44 ----- 1B - 35 2B - 15 ----- 2B - 9 3B - 0 ----- 3B - 0 HR - 10 ----- HR - 13 RBI - 44 ----- RBI - 39 RUN - 39 ----- RUN - 33 SB - 0 ----- SB - 1 CS - 0 ----- CS - 1 BB - 25 ----- BB - 30 K - 33 ----- K - 28 11.4BB%/15.0K% ----- 14.8BB%/13.8K% SwStr% - 7.5% ----- SwStr% - 8.1% GB% - 44.9& ----- GB% - 37.3% LD% - 21.5% ----- LD% - 19.7% FB% - 33.5% ----- FB% - 43.0% GB/FB - 1.34 ----- GB/FB - 0.87 BABIP - .391 ----- BABIP - .336 WOBA - .459 ----- WOBA - .458 WRC+ - 190 ----- WRC+ - 188
  22. 10 points
  23. 10 points
  24. 10 points
    Cashman on his way to the phone when he read that tweet
  25. 10 points
    "Step right up, folks! Step right up! Welcome to the Forums of Rotoworld! Now you kids grab your complimentary Small Sample Sizes and you'll be all set to start extrapolating numbers and passing judgement on full seasons, even career trajectories, of every player in the world!"
  26. 10 points
  27. 10 points
    Are these the other members of your league?
  28. 10 points
    Info like the above, merely intensifies the battered wife syndrome, I already have. I don't care how many times Josh beats my arse when he gets home. I'll always be there a waitin'. Smile on my face. Hot meal on the table. I won't deny it. I'll never leave him.
  29. 10 points
    Alot of people keep forgetting addiction can be psychological and not merely chemical dependencey. So you can have mental and emotional relapses; maybe he or his therapists recognized a red flag from a mental or emotional perspective and he needs time to focus and deal with it. Sadly addiction treatment does not adhere to a professional NFL schedule or personal convenience, it doesnt just turn on and stay in cruise control. it's literally a 24/7 process. Based on the statement you can speculate that Josh and his support system are devoting 100% of effort now rather than pretend they can schedule it around the daily grind of training camp.
  30. 10 points
    pbp guy: "3rd and 8, down 24-6, in a raucous Lucas Oil ... time's running out on the Titans, J eff - what say you?' Fisher: "ya gotta run Henry off tackle here, if nothing else, it gives your punter a few extra yards to work with" pbp guy: <silence>
  31. 10 points
  32. 9 points
    I think Greg Bird sucks but what is he supposed to do in front of the firing squad there? The reporters are just taking turns telling him he sucks in various different ways. He's just responding by telling them, "F off i'm still a big leaguer going through a slump", as nice as possible.
  33. 9 points
    In the lineup tonight vs Jon Gray and the Rockies.
  34. 9 points
    I got some good feedback on my articles last year, so here's the first primer for this year (Steals): Prince among Thieves – securing your steals II: 2018-2019 https://perkinsfor3.wordpress.com/2018/08/13/prince-among-thieves-securing-your-steals-ii-2018-2019/
  35. 9 points
  36. 9 points
    Last season I plotted the 2016 ADP against the 2016 end-of-season leaders. That gives you a graph with 4 groups of data for RB, WR, TE and QB with ADP vs actual results. I let Excel figure out the best trendline through each group and retrieved the formula for the line. This formula now gives you a very rough estimation for what each position should give in expected value at each pick. I then let Excel run thousands of mock drafts and compared the results (I assumed a standard lineup). I found the highest expected value if you drafted RB, RB, RB, TE, WR, WR, QB. This would be around 10% better than the worst, which would be to draft a QB in the first round. I then started playing with the formulas and the parameters - and found radically different results. The thing is that the uncertainty involved in each player is so much larger than the potential gain in a slightly different strategy, that in practice it doesn't really matter too much. For example, if you drafted DJ first last season, everyone would have agreed you did the right thing. And then he got injured and suddenly your best player was essentially a third rounder (and with a bit of bad luck you would lose him too). TL/DR; just go for the players you like and don't get too hung up on strategy. Oh, and of course I will do the same exercise for 2017 data. I'll share it too, if anyone is interested.
  37. 9 points
    Someone is wrong here, but it’s not him. Zobrist grounded out, which was the first out. The play in question, Heywards “single”, if ruled an error would have been the second out. Then schwarber fouled out. That would have been the third out. Meaning the hbp and home run afterwards would not have occurred.
  38. 9 points
    Someone who doesn’t own him in a fantasy league saw him look at a pitcher too long.
  39. 9 points
  40. 9 points
    The advancing field of cybernetics begins to produce basketball-capable automatons. Due to a blind spot in the CBA, teams are able to purchase as many robots as they can afford, as they are not required to pay them a salary. Not a single human makes the all-star game, and, as machine learning and neural networking improve strategies and execution to previously incomprehensible levels, by the end of the season no team plays a human in its regular rotation. LeTron J4M35 wins MVP.
  41. 9 points
    [Guys, there's a whole wide world outside of this thread that I encourage you to spend time visiting if you can't help yourself but take cheap shots at other people.]
  42. 9 points
  43. 9 points
    He continues to show his tremendous upside while at the same time showing why it's hard to trust him. Batters are hitting .155. Get this: righties are 5 for 76 off of him. They have a .300 OPS! He's essentially reduced all righties against him to worse than how pitchers hit. That's unfathomably amazing. On the other hand, lefties have tatted him for a .828 OPS. Silver lining? That's propped by too many homers. Average wise lefties are only hitting .235 and have k'd 30 times in 85 at bats. All small sample sizes, but man has he been incredibly difficult to hit. At the same time, he's got a flat out terrible walk rate, and a 57.8% first strike rate (league average is 60.5%). There's roughly (when I last checked a few weeks ago) a league wide .200 point difference in OPS on at bats that start 0-1 vs 1-0. Additionally, thanks to slow starts and overall inefficiency, Freddy's barely averaging over 5 innings per start. That won't cut it. Freddy's stuff is surprisingly filthy given his very limited pitch mix. The fastball jumps up on hitters (especially when he's more in the 92-94 mph range) and his curve has some strong bite. He has top notch swinging strike and contact rates. Not surprisingly, his three starts of the year with 65%+ first pitch strike includes two gems (Colorado, Atlanta). That's one major thing I'll be watching. I might be simplifying it too much, but I think if he throws strike one more often, he's going to be a top 40 fantasy starter (with upside for top 30). The problem is, right now he struggles with strike one and staying in the zone in general. He makes a lot of non-competitive pitches. I think he deserves a roster spot but in case he randomly finds some mechanical flaw and turns it around, but he's also tough to trust in the meantime. I'm tempering my expectations on him, and couldn't blame those for cutting, but don't be surprised if he is able to string together a few gems in a row (if he keeps a rotation spot, which is questionable).
  44. 9 points
  45. 8 points
    Lol I’ll take “things that will never happen” for $500, Alex mixon too
  46. 8 points
    I’d say no more streaks of 18 games, hitting .183 with 27 Ks and 5 BB would be a good start when you’re battling other guys for playing time.
  47. 8 points
    It’s a good thing Diggs never gets TDs on fluke plays
  48. 8 points
  49. 8 points
    It amazes me that some people still don't understand what an anomaly Juan Soto is. OTHER THAN VLAD JR, pretty much no one IN THE HISTORY OF BASEBALL was putting up numbers like Juan Soto was doing in the minors at such a young age. Normally, what qualifies as an exciting prospect is a 21-year-old like Kyle Tucker who puts up a .900 OPS in the minors. JUAN SOTO HAD A 1.300 OPS IN THE MINORS AT AGE 19. THIS IS NOT NORMAL. So, no - other kids simply can't do what Soto is doing now.
  50. 8 points
    Is it ok to say I hope your whole team hits the DL?