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  1. 22 points
  2. 21 points
    Jose Berrios finally lived up to the hype and produced a very solid 3.89 ERA with an 8.59 K/9, 2.97 BB/9, and 0.93 HR/9 in 145.2 MLB innings in 2017. His rate stats look pretty strong at first glance, and that definitely helped support his FIP (3.84) and xFIP (4.51). Overall, a pretty impressive first full season for Berrios and it has me excited for what he could be in the future. Looking ahead to 2018, I noticed that Steamer is projecting a regression for Berrios with a 4.51 ERA, 8.53 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 1.36 HR/9, 4.66 FIP, and a 4.55 xFIP. So I did a deep dive to see what I could see in Berrios to help me project him going into next year. Looking at Berrios' stuff, a few things jump out. First, he has a great fastball that was worth 11.4 runs above-average, that ranked in a tie for 15th best in the majors with Dallas Keuchel among those that pitched at least 110 innings. That fastball ranked ahead of names like Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Marcus Stroman, and Luis Severino. Berrios also has a plus curveball that was worth 4.5 runs above-average, and that ranked 24th best in the majors among those who pitched at least 110 innings. That curveball ranked ahead of names like James Paxton and Mashiro Tanaka. Both offerings also come with a slightly above-average whiff rate of 11.75% for the fastball, and 14.19% for the curveball. Where Berrios had trouble last year was with his 3rd pitch, the changeup which was worth -4 runs above-average ranked in a tie for 94th best in baseball among those who pitched at least 110 innings with Jake Odorizzi. That changeup also had a below average whiff rate of 7.62. Brooks Baseball has Berrios throwing also throwing a sinker 26.1% of the time that elicited just a 5.56 whiff rate last year. Fangraphs shows it as a sinker curve and grades it positively, but pretty much purely on its groundball inducing nature (47.3% groundball rate on the sinker). Overall I see a guy with 2 great offerings, but he needs to improve his changeup to take a step forward. Lefties, in particular, are a problem without advancement in the changeup, and that showed with Berrios giving up a .257/.357/.427 (.341 wOBA) line against them compared to a .219/.275/.341 (.269 wOBA) line against righties. Let's take a look at some plate discipline numbers for Jose Berrios: Note that all of this data is among those pitchers who have pitched 110 innings last year. - Berrios' out-of-zone swing% of 30.5% ranked tied for 50th with Matt Boyd, Rick Porcello, Jason Hammel, Jordan Zimmerman. Ahead of names like Jameson Taillon, Yu Darvish, James Paxton, Robbie Ray - Berrios’ out-of-zone contact rate of 66.7% ranks in a tie for 70th with Jose Quintana and Jason Vargas. Ahead of names like Jake Arrieta, Taijuan Walker, and Michael Wacha - Berrios’ zone contact rate of 86.9% ranks 71st in the majors last season. Ahead of names like Sean Manaea, Taijuan Walker, Trevor Bauer, and Zach Godley. - Berrios’ overall contact rate of 79.3% ranks in a tie for 65th with Jharel Cotton. Ahead of names like Jeff Samardzija, Garrett Cole, Jon Gray, and Jake Arrieta. - Berrios’ Swinging strike rate of 9.4% ranks in a tier for 70th with Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz, Rick Porcello, and Michael Fulmer. Ahead of names like Trevor Bauer, John Gray, and Jake Arrieta. All of those are decent, but he hasn't shown a lot of top skills at this point and that highlights some lack of upside with Berrios imo. Now this was Berrios' first real extended period at the major league level so I'm willing to bet there's another level there, but he has a ways to go yet before reaching top 25 SP status. Under the hood, Berrios looks very average, and at this point it's hard to project him to return a ton of value at his current ADP (NFBC ADP of 113.88 which is the 27th SP going off the board). Long-term, I remain quite high on the 23-year old righty. He doesn’t bury himself with walks, he has a fastball capable of being the foundational pitch you need for consistent success in this league, a strong secondary offering in his curveball, and flashes a decent changeup (the changeup needs a lot of work though). I also like that he goes deep in games pretty often and has shown a strong ability to go through the order 3 times (.233/.297/.357 line against, good for a .286 wOBA). I also like that he threw 185.2 innings last year between AAA and the majors so he won't have any inning restrictions and looks to be a workhorse on a Twins team that is looking to compete which should help him rack up Wins and Quality Starts. He also pitches in a home park that suppresses left-handed power (Target field has a 0.84 HR rating for left-handed batters, 1.00 is neutral) and pitches in a division that will have some weak competition (Royals, Tigers, White Sox). For 2018, I will project a 3.84 ERA, 1.21 WHIP with 195 K's and 15 wins in 204 innings.
  3. 19 points
  4. 17 points
  5. 15 points
    Must be fun playing in an amateur league.
  6. 14 points
  7. 14 points
    Albies is coming off a 2017 season where he debuted in the majors and did amazingly well, super impressive considering he was just 20 years-old. I just want to show why Albies has gotten so much love this offseason from us fantasy nerds and professionals alike. Albies hit .286/.354/.456 with 6 HRs and 8 SBs in just 244 PAs, all good for a 112 wRC+. That came with an 8.6% walk rate which is roughly league average and a 14.8% strikeout rate which is above-average, showing that Albies handled himself very well in his first taste in the bigs. His .316 BAPIP was very reasonable, especially for someone with his kind of speed, so it's not like Albies was getting lucky to achieve this success. Looking at his batted ball profile, 2017 stands out in a good way. It looks like Albies decided to change his launch angle in 2017, likely to tap into more of his power upside and he did just that. In 2016, Albies posted a 46.1% groundball rate at AA, and a 50% groundball rate at AAA. He also posted flyball rates of 32.6% and 29.3% at the same levels in 2016 respectively. That groundball profile works with someone like Albies who has plus speed, but Albies decided to make a change in 2017. In his return to AAA in 2017, Albies posted a 42.4% groundball rate and a 37.9% flyball rate which is a massive change. The result was that he hit more fly-balls, his HR/FB rate improved, and Albies hit more HRs in 97 games at AAA than he had previously throughout his whole minor league career. When he got to the Majors, he kept doing the same thing and hit 6 more HRs. Albies posted an 18.8% Line-drive rate, and 40.9% ground-ball rate, and a 40.3% fly-ball rate for the Braves and that's a pretty decent mix for BAPIP purposes. Albies stayed up the middle with his contact a lot with a high 35.3% mark, but that tells me that he was on time a lot at the plate. The other place Albies shines is in quality of contact as he posted a very strong 14.7% soft contact rate (which would have tied with Nelson Cruz for 29th best in MLB among qualified hitters) and a pretty solid 33.2% Hard Contact rate (which would have ranked 78th in MLB among qualified hitters, ahead of guys like Buster Posey, Kris Bryant and Alex Bregman). That is supported by a roughly average 87.31 MPH average exit velocity (MLB average is 87.32) which is pretty impressive considering Albies is listed at 5 foot 9, 160 lbs. There's definitely 15-20 HR upside with those type of numbers, but I think somewhere between 10-15 HRs is fair for this year. Let's take a look at Ozzie Albies' plate discipline numbers: His out-of-zone swing% was 33.3% MLB average is 30%His zone swing % was 73.4% MLB average is 65%His overall swing % was 51.4% MLB average is 46%His out-of-zone contact % was 71.8% MLB average is 66%His zone contact% was 84.8% MLB average is 87%His overall contact rate was 80% MLB average is 80%His % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone was 45.3% MLB average is 45%His swinging-strike% was 10.3% MLB average is 9.5% As you can see, Albies is an aggressive hitter, swinging more often than average both inside and outside the strike zone. That is of concern as MLB pitchers will likely try and get him to hit pitches that Albies struggles to do much. His strike-zone eye wasn't terrible though which tells me has a solid eye and I expect Albies to lower his out-of-zone swing rate over the next few years. Good news is, his contact rate is very solid and overall graded out as league average on the nose. As a 20-year-old player in his first taste at the major league level, that's pretty darn impressive. His swinging-strike% was slightly below average, but it's not far from being average and again, I expect him to trim that with more experience. Overall, there's a lot to like here under the hood, and it should improve with more experience. I would expect a slight regression in his K% though for next year and perhaps a slight regression in his BAPIP too considering how often he makes contact outside the zone. Speed has long been one of Albies biggest strengths as a prospect, with him receiving universally 60-70 grades. That has translated into pretty solid efficiency in the minors (30 for 43 in 2016, and 29 for 32 in 2017 split between AAA and MLB), and I expect the same to be the case in his first full season in majors. I think there's 30 SB upside in Albies, but I feel more comfortable projecting 20-25 this year which is very helpful for a lot of fantasy lineups. Overall, I see a young middle infielder with tons of upside for fantasy, combining a very solid hit tool with some power and plus speed. .280/.340, 15 HRs and 25 SBs is the upside, but I feel better about projecting a line of .271/.328, with 12 HRs and 21 SBs. That's still valuable, and at his 153 NFBC ADP, you won't have to break the bank for him. I like him better than Paul Dejong who is going a couple of picks earlier.
  8. 13 points
    Not exactly sure what thread this info should go into but I thought it does somewhat apply here. Razzball coined the "Kluber formula" a couple years ago to predict SP breakouts. The criteria are as follows: Age 30 or under Minimum 50 IP K/9 of at least 7.5 K/BB of at least 3 GB% of at least 44% SwStr% of at least 9% With that said, the full list of players that fit the criteria last season is: Name Age IP K/9 K/BB GB% SwStr% Carlos Martinez 25 205 9.53 3.06 51.3 10.6 Gerrit Cole 26 203 8.69 3.56 45.8 9.5 Jacob deGrom 29 201.1 10.68 4.05 45.3 13.3 Carlos Carrasco 30 200 10.17 4.91 45.2 13.4 Luis Severino 23 193.1 10.71 4.51 50.6 13 Masahiro Tanaka 28 178.1 9.79 4.73 49.2 15.1 Trevor Bauer 26 175.2 9.99 3.25 46.6 9.1 Stephen Strasburg 28 175.1 10.47 4.34 46.8 13 Jimmy Nelson 28 175.1 10.21 4.15 50.3 11.4 Clayton Kershaw 29 175 10.39 6.73 47.9 14.1 Aaron Nola 24 168 9.86 3.76 49.8 10.8 German Marquez 22 162 8.17 3 45.2 9.1 Zack Godley 27 153.1 9.57 3.08 55.2 13.3 Alex Wood 26 147 9 3.97 52.4 11.7 James Paxton 28 136 10.32 4.22 44.9 12.5 Lance McCullers 23 118.2 10.01 3.3 61.3 12 Joe Musgrove 24 109.1 8.07 3.5 44.9 11.6 Michael Pineda 28 96.1 8.6 4.38 50.9 12.1 Luis Castillo 24 89.1 9.87 3.06 58.8 12.7 Luke Weaver 23 55.1 11.22 4.93 50.7 10 Obviously, a lot of those guys are familiar faces. Of that list, the real potential value/breakout candidates are Luke Weaver, Luis Castillo, Zack Godley and German Marquez (beware of Coors). A few notes: Joe Musgrove makes the list, but he wouldn't if you used just his numbers as a starter. Ross Stripling and Randall Delgado meet the criteria, but only had 2 and 5 starts, respectively. So perhaps they could be interesting depending if they're going to be starters this year. Nate Karns just misses the list by <5 IP Matt Andriese, Michael Wacha, and Pat Corbin are all just short of the K/BB cutoff Jon Gray and Mark Leiter are both just short of the SwStr% requirement
  9. 13 points
    The number of pages in his thread will exceed his season minutes total by the trade deadline.
  10. 12 points
    Heads up, listening to the most recent Bill Simmons podcast from this past Friday with Richard Jefferson. Jefferson just said Milsap should be back in a week or two. So a week would be this Friday Feb 23rd, two weeks would be next Friday March 2nd
  11. 12 points
  12. 11 points
    we can't say there weren't signs.....
  13. 11 points
    This guy: Will give this guy his minutes: How could he not?
  14. 11 points
  15. 11 points
  16. 11 points
    Our 2nd round pick won rookie of the year and our lottery pick warmed the bench (Bucks) Going off of the actual games makes a hell of a lot more sense than going off of an arbitrary draft number.
  17. 10 points
    Except 2017 Week 1 when he murdered the Patriots.
  18. 10 points
    Nomar Mazara is a guy that I’ve seen some post-hype sleeper talk so I figured I would do a deep dive and see if there’s anything I can see on him that would lead me to project that he could break out in 2018. Going back to 2017, Mazara slashed .253/.323/.422 with 20 HRs and 2 SBs in 616 PAs. That line was supported by an 8.9 BB% and a 20.6 K% as well as a .293 BAPIP. All told he was worth a below average 92 wRC+. He is still just 22 though, and many of his peers in the same year of berth are still in the minors whereas Mazara now has 2 years of MLB experience. Let’s dig deeper and see what Mazara’s numbers look like underneath the hood. Looking at his batted ball data, it’s easy to see that Mazara has largely been fairly groundball oriented in terms of batted ball contact. In 2017, he did cut into that high groundball rate some lowering it from 48.9% to 46.5%. The result was that he hit a lot more flyballs and upped his flyball rate from 29.7% to 34.2%. That’s a huge gain and is really encouraging for his power upside. The hope is that he continues to up his Fly-ball rate in the future to try and tap into more of his power upside (MLB.com prospect watch in 2015 had his power grade at 65). The slight drop in Mazara’s BAPIP may be explained by a slight decline in line-drive rate as it fell to 19.3% from 21.4%. Note that line-drives are the best-batted ball outcome in terms of likelihood of not being turned into an out. So if that line-drive rate rises again in 2018, I think you can expect a rise in his BAPIP and therefore average. What really does help his BAPIP is that Mazara uses all fields (35.3 Pull%, 38.8 Cent%, and 25.8 Oppo%) which makes him a guy that’s tougher to take advantage of utilizing shifts. Interestingly, that 38.8 centerfield contact% is one of the higher rates in baseball, overall ranking 14th highest. That high of a rate is good and bad in my opinion, it somewhat limits his power as his fly-balls going out to CF now have to go out to the deepest parts of the ballpark for HRs, but it also tells me that he’s on time a lot at the plate. I personally think he should look to turn on more pitches and push that Pull% closer to around 40% which would help him make more of his hard contact fly-balls. Speaking of hard contact, Mazara posted a 32.6% hard contact rate last season, which is significantly up from 2016 when he posted a 28.7% rate. That 32.6% hard contact rate ranked in a tie for 169th in baseball among those with at least 250 PAs with Jayson Werth, Brandon Crawford, and Josh Bell. That’s a decent but not great rate but is ahead of names like Javier Baez, Mike Moustakas, and Adam Duvall. That 32.6% hard contact rate is supported by an above average 88.6 MPH average exit velocity (MLB average is 87.32) which ranks in a tie for 106th in baseball with DJ Lemahieu, Buster Posey, Dexter Fowler, Trey Mancini, and Justin Upton. That ranks ahead of names like Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, and Anthony Rizzo. This shows that he can really sting the ball, he just needs to make adjustments to maximize the potential that comes with hitting the ball that hard. Note that Mazara’s soft contact% is kinda high at 20.9%, and that ranked in a tie for 76th worst in baseball among those with at least 250 PAs with Mark Trumbo, Ender Inciarte, and Tommy Joseph which isn’t ideal company (two struggling power hitters and a slap hitter). Now a big cause of that soft contact rate is his abysmal skills when hitting against left-handed hitters which held Mazara to a .228/.286/.317 that was worth a terrible 57 wRC+. Against lefties, Mazara posted a 29% soft contact rate and a 25.8% hard contact rate. Compared to his marks against righties, 18.7% soft contact rate and 34.4% hard contact rate, you can see there’s a big problem here. Mazara’s groundball rate also spikes to 60.2% against lefties which is brutal, especially considering that Mazara isn’t fast so those groundballs are highly likely to be turned into outs. The only positive I can see about Mazara’s struggles against lefties is that his 22.6 K% isn’t all that different from his 20.1 K% against righties. At this point, he has a ton to work on against lefties and that really dampens my excitement on him as a post-hype sleeper sort of guy. I should also point out, that he hasn’t exactly dominated right-handed pitching either (like Jake Lamb who has platoon issues but hits righties well enough to live with the platoon issues) as he posted just a .260/.333/.452 line that was worth a 102 wRC+. One last thing I want to point out before I dive into the plate discipline numbers is that Mazara only had 1 month that rated as at least average or better with a 147 wRC+ month of May. The rest of the months were as follows: 69 wRC+ in March/April, 77 wRC+ in June, 80 wRC+ in July, 98 wRC+ in August, and 75 wRC+ in September/October. That’s a little scary! Let’s take a look at Nomar Mazara’s plate discipline numbers: His out-of-zone swing% was 32.9% MLB average is 30% His zone swing % was 65.4% MLB average is 65% His overall swing % was 46.1% MLB average is 46% His out-of-zone contact % was 62.8% MLB average is 66% His zone contact% was 85.1% MLB average is 87% His overall contact rate was 75.7% MLB average is 80% His % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone was 40.7% MLB average is 45% His swinging-strike% was 11.1% MLB average is 9.5% As you can see, Mazara is willing to open up his strike zone more than MLB average and that’s a little concerning considering he makes contact on pitches outside the zone 3.2% worse than average. Good news is that he’s league average on pitches in the zone which tells me he does have a pretty good eye at the plate and he’s not being overly aggressive. Another thing about his out-of-zone swing% is that I noticed that when looking at his pitch type splits, that Curveballs and Sliders have been a problem for him and I’m guessing that pitchers are getting him to expand his zone on breaking balls. His far below average % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone shows that teams weren’t giving him too much to hit so he needs to learn to lay off that garbage and wait for more pitches inside the strike-zone that hopefully, he can drive. His overall contact rates are below average across the board, but he was roughly league average last year (80.7% overall contact rate in 2016) so I’m betting that he bounces back somewhat and perhaps we see an improvement in his K% and batting average in 2018. Overall, he’s still a work in progress underneath the hood, but he’s shown he’s not being overmatched thus far. Adjustments need to be made though! Overall, I see a hitter that has some pretty big flaws, but also some pretty darn good skills. He’s not a guy I’m particularly looking to buy in 2018, especially at his current ADP (NFBC ADP of 160) as I think there are better values in the same range and after. A big problem for me personally is I don’t like that he doesn’t add any value on the bases, especially at an OF position (which is one of the most common places to find SBs) and that pressures team construction somewhat. He also likely isn’t to be a big asset in BA/OBP with his lefty platoon issues and HRs so you’re kinda buying a meh asset IMO. Now, I’m not saying he isn’t a guy that can provide value He is likely to continue to make gains in flyball% which should help tap into his power more and I think it’s easy to project 20-25 HRs. I think his contact rates will bounce back some and think there’s some to gain to be had in batting average. He also will hit in the middle of the Rangers lineup and is in a great position to repeat his 100+ RBI season from last year. For 2018, I will project a line of .263/.333 with 24 HRs and 1 SB.
  19. 10 points
    it was actually a pretty good deadline. disappointed with no DAJordan and Tyreke trade. Good luck this season!
  20. 10 points
  21. 10 points
    Jose Pirela is a guy that broke out in 2017, slashing .288/.347/.490 with 10 HRs and 4 SBs in just 344 PAs in the majors with the Padres. This line was supported by reasonable 7.8% walk rate and a 20.6% strikeout rate. Overall, he was pretty darn impressive and was worth a 122 wRC+. That came after a red-hot stretch in AAA where he hit .331/.387/.636 with 13 HRs and 8 SBs in just 201 PAs. Now I know this isn't fair to do because the Padres AAA team in the Pacific Coast League plays in a great hitting environment (El Paso ballpark has a .351 career BAPIP. Pacific Coast League average is .331), but total up his HRs and SBs between the two levels and here's a guy who hit 23 HRs and had 12 SBs in 545 PAs last year. That demonstrates the upside that Pirela has as a hitter, and why he could be a great value pick at his current ADP (NFBC currently has him at 386). Let's go a little deeper and see what drove Pirela's breakout at the major league level last year. So Pirela didn't make the Padres out of camp last year and was sent back to AAA. There, he made a change that many others have recently, he tried to raise his launch angle to tap into more of his raw power which is discussed here from the San Diego Union-Tribune: Taking a look at his batted ball data, his Ground-ball% dropped from 50+% (55.9% with the Yankees in 2015, 50.4% with the Padres AAA club in 2016, 53.3% with the Padres in 2016) to below 50% (49.3% with the Padres AAA club, 47.3% with the Padres) in 2017. It's not a massive change, but it was enough to unlock a whole new level for Pirela and that's exciting for both the Padres and us fantasy players. The raised launch angle culminated in a slight increase in both Line-drive rate and Fly-ball rate. Ultimately, at the major league level, Pirela posted a 21.2% Line-drive rate, 47.3% ground-ball rate, and 31.5% fly-ball rate. That 20%+ LD rate will be critical for Pirela in supporting a high BAPIP next year, and if he is able to do that again, I think you can expect at least a .275+ batting average. Note that line-drives are the best batted ball outcome for BAPIP as they are turned into outs the least compared to groundballs and flyballs. Pirela uses all fields (30.3% center, 25.4% opposite field contact) but does pull the ball most often (44.3%) which helps him make the most of power (5 of 10 HRs in the majors were to LF). Using all fields also helps Pirela support a slightly higher BAPIP as he's not a guy that should get eaten up by a shift. The biggest change in Pirela last year compared to previous years was in the quality of contact. Pirela raised his hard contact% to a career-best 34% in 2017 which ranked in a tie for 130th best in baseball with Jose Ramirez and Michael Taylor among those with at least 300 PAs. That's not exceptional, but it's pretty solid as it does rank ahead of names like Alex Bregman, Kris Bryant, and Yasiel Puig which does show that Pirela can sting the ball. That hard contact% is supported by an above average 88.52 MPH average exit velocity (MLB average is 87.32) which ranked Pirela in a tie for 106th best with DJ Lemahieu, Buster Posey, Dexter Fowler, Trey Mancini and Justin Upton. That ranks ahead of names like Mookie Betts, Andrew McCutchen, Francisco Lindor, and Anthony Rizzo. Also want to point out that Pirela is listed at 6 feet tall, 220 lbs which is a powerful build more like an NFL running back rather than a guy with 2B eligibility. If he can raise his launch angle more, I think there is upside for 25 HRs, but as of now, I would put his power upside in the 20 range. Pirela's soft contact of 19.3% is roughly average and ranked in a tie for 173rd best in baseball with Scott Schebler, Brian McCann, Brandon Crawford, and Yolmer Sanchez. I want to mention that Pirela does not have any sort of platoon issues at all (145 wRC+ vs Lefties last year, 113 wRC+ last year versus righties last year) and he was also consistent all year long in the majors (his worst month a 111 wRC+ in Sept/OCT). Let's take a look at Jose Pirela's plate discipline metrics: His out-of-zone swing% was 33% MLB average is 30%His zone swing % was 63.5% MLB average is 65%His overall swing % was 46.7% MLB average is 46%His out-of-zone contact % was 59.5% MLB average is 66%His zone contact% was 86.6% MLB average is 87%His overall contact rate was 76.1% MLB average is 80%His % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone was 45% MLB average is 45%His swinging-strike% was 11.2% MLB average is 9.5% As you can see, Pirela is a guy that expands his zone more than the MLB average, and that's a little bit scary considering he makes contact outside the strike-zone a fair bit less than MLB average. He needs to tighten his strike-zone and force pitchers to come to him more so he can find more pitches that he can drive. The good news is, inside the zone, Pirela is pretty solid as he's patient inside the zone and makes contact inside the zone at a roughly average level. His swinging strike% is a little high, but it spiked in 2017 compared to past MLB experience (8.7% in 2015, 9.2% in 2016) and that's likely due to Pirela looking to hit for more power. Looking at Pirela's speed, he was 4 for 7 in the majors stealing bases which is kinda meh. He was 8 for 11 in AAA so maybe there's more there with more experience at the major league level. We know the Padres like to run, so I think he's capable of 10-15 SBs next year. Overall, I think Pirela is a guy with a lot of quality skills for fantasy baseball, he has shown a plus hit tool in the minors (8.5 K% at AAA in 2015), he has sacrificed some of those contact skills for an improved launch angle, he hits the ball hard at an above-average rate, and he has some speed and plays for an organization that is pretty aggressive on the bases. Add it all up and there's reason for optimism here. Pirela is projected for everyday at-bats in the middle of the Padres lineup (RosterResource has him hitting 5th) so he should get the opportunity to prove himself. Not saying that he's a must add or anything, but I think there's a lot of good skills and think he's a definite value at his current ADP of 386 which is undrafted in standard 12 team leagues. For 2018, I will project a line of .271/339, with 18 HRs and 11 SBs.
  22. 10 points
  23. 10 points
    Its a fair debate But I go with the guy that: A. Has higher untapped upside ceiling B. Has not shown you even his floor yet C. Was the draft pick of the guy coaching him and paying him D. The guy starting E. The guy with the way cooler hair and a strong bball IQ forcing his way onto the floor according to his coach. F. ro G. o get Allen!
  24. 10 points
    Didn't you post your "advanced scouting", last year just before he went on a home run binge? I don't think you came back to the thread after posting the above...
  25. 9 points
    Yoan Moncada is coming off his first extended stretch at the major league level where he slashed .231/.338/.412 with 8 HRs and 3 SBs in 231 PAs. That line was supported by a truly awful 32% K rate but a great 12.6% walk rate. His .325 BAPIP at the majors was actually his lowest of his professional career. All told at the MLB level, he was worth a 104 wRC+ which is slightly above-average. Now he did get 261 PAs at AAA last year and hit .282/.377/.447 with 12 HRs and 17 SBs and that was supported by a 28.3% K rate and a 13.6% walk rate. So the contact issues are not an MLB exclusive problem and that’s definitely concerning, but the good news is that 2017 was another example of his power/speed skills as he did post a 20/20 year and that’s what makes him interesting to us fantasy players. Let’s take a deeper look and see what Moncada is like underneath the hood. Looking at Moncada’s batted ball profile, the first thing that jumps out is that his line-drive rate dropped immensely in his MLB time in 2017 compared to the rest of his professional career. In the minors, his line-drive rates have typically been very high, fluctuating between 22.7% and 28.6%. Those are great rates as they promote high BAPIP since line-drives are the best-batted ball outcome in terms of not being turned into outs. So perhaps his 19.2% line-drive rate in the majors last year will prove to be an outlier on the low end, and if it returns to the mid-twenties% range of his minor league career, I think it would be reasonable to expect a rise in his BAPIP and therefore his batting average. His groundball rate of 45.6% is reasonable for someone with his sort of speed (fast guys can turn groundballs into base hits) and his fly-ball rate (35.2%) while not ideal for major HR upside, is reasonable too. If his 2017 AAA season is any indication, I would expect that if he were to increase his LD% in 2018, it would be his ground-ball rate that would drop. He seems to have raised his launch angle in 2017 which is encouraging for his power upside so watch for that. It’s also encouraging from a BAPIP perspective that Moncada uses all fields (41.6 Pull%, 31.2 Cent%, 27.2 Oppo%) at the plate, but additionally has a slight pull lean that should help him take advantage of his plus raw power. Those numbers compare very similarly to Aaron Judge who posted a 41.4 Pull%, a 30.8 Cent%, and 27.8% Oppo rates last year. Looking at Moncada’s quality of contact posted a 36% hard contact rate which is above-average. That 36% ranked in a tie for 86th best in baseball among those with at least 230 PAs (Moncada had 231 PAs) with Yonder Alonso, Rene Rivera, Matt Chapman, Jason Castro, and surprisingly Adeiny Hechavarria. That ranks ahead of names like Mookie Betts, Jake Lamb, Daniel Murphy, Tommy Pham, and Kyle Seager. That 36% hard contact rate is supported by a well above average 89.1 MPH average exit velocity (MLB average is 87.27 MPH) which ranked in a tie for 75th best in baseball with Wil Myers, Nick Castellanos, Randal Grichuk, Lorenzo Cain, Andrew Knapp, and Tyler Flowers. That 89.1 MPH ranked ahead of names like Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Conforto, Nolan Arenado, and Justin Upton. This proves that Moncada really impacts the ball well and can really sting it when he makes contact. The numbers suggest there’s 25 HR, maybe even 30 HR upside. Moncada’s soft contact rate was also very good at 14.4% which ranked in a tie for 50th best in the majors. Let's take a look at Yoan Moncada’s plate discipline numbers: His out-of-zone swing% was 26.8% MLB average is 30% His zone swing % was 63.9% MLB average is 65% His overall swing % was 42.8% MLB average is 46% His out-of-zone contact % was 58.1% MLB average is 66% His zone contact% was 77.5% MLB average is 87% His overall contact rate was 70.6% MLB average is 80% His % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone was 43.1% MLB average is 45% His swinging-strike% was 12.6% MLB average is 9.5% As you can see, Moncada is a very patient hitter across the board and that supports his above-average walk rate. You can also see that Moncada has major contact issues across the board and that supports his awful K rate. His overall contact rate of 70.6% ranked in a tie for 294th worst in baseball with Nelson Cruz. Now there are good hitters with worse contact rate like Giancarlo Stanton (70.4%) and Cody Bellinger (69.6%). The bad news, there aren’t many hitters that provided positive offensive value with worse contact rates inside the strike-zone. That list includes Cody Bellinger (77%), Corey Dickerson (75.3%), Mike Zunino (73.6%), Miguel Sano (73.5%), Alex Avila (72.9%), and Joey Gallo (71.6%). Most of those guys are 3 true outcome type hitters, and Yoan Moncada needs to really improve his contact skills to avoid that sort of career outcome. Couple more things I want to mention! Moncada posted his best month in the majors in September/October late in the year by posting a .276/.349/.469 line that was worth 120 wRC+. That line came with a reasonable .349 BAPIP and came with an improved 27.5 K%. The difference that I can see between that month of games and the rest of his season is that he was a fair bit more aggressive at the plate (9.2 BB%). So if you believe in September samples, there is reason to suggest that his floor was raised some. Overall though, the biggest question mark about Moncada as a prospect still remains…he still really struggles with all kinds of offspeed/breaking balls. Here is the K% and contact rates for various offspeed/breaking balls: K% Contact% Changeup 52.8 47.5 Slider 33.3 64.7 Curveball 52.6 52.4 Cutter 35.3 81 Those are pretty ugly figures and show where he is at in terms of recognizing and doing something with offspeed/breaking stuff. He really needs to take steps forward against these pitches to reach a new level and not be a batting average liability. Looking at Moncada’s speed, he was 20 for 30 last year split between AAA and the Majors. It has been noted that Moncada dealt with shin issues throughout the year, and that likely means that we haven’t seen the best out of Moncada at the majors in terms of SB upside. He has long shown very solid efficiency on the bases in the minors and also received 70-speed grades on his prospect profiles so that leads me to say that he perhaps has 30+ SB upside. For this year though, I feel more comfortable projecting somewhere around 20 SBs. Overall, I see a guy with a ton of great fantasy tools in power and speed, but also major contact issues that really lowers his floor IMO. I think there are some Byron Buxton type parallels, and so similar to Buxton, you should be aware that you’re buying a fairly high risk/high reward player. And at his current ADP (NFBC ADP of 133), you’re counting on his upside to return a positive value. He’s probably not a guy I’m reaching for this year, I just think the downside isn’t worth it at his current ADP. I am buying the raw skills though and think that he has a huge upside in the future, especially if he can make some contact gains. For 2018, I will project .246/.347 with 21 HRs and 20 SBs.
  26. 9 points
    Wait just a minute .Are you telling me you are gonna walk into the Luke Kornet thread and bad mouth Luke Kornet ? Disrespect Luke Freakin Kornet in his own house ??? understand this ,the Knicks NEED Luke Kornet. The NBA NEEDS Luke Kornet . He is setting the stage for sky high ratings based on his future name recognition and future superstar status. He is Jokic but with finesse and a silky smooth jump shot . Luke Kornet is Nowitski ,if Nowitski knew how to rebound and block shots . Luke Kornet is Durant but even more so , and with a majestic fade away 3 ball. This guy is gonna open up new markets the NBA never dreamed of . Luke Kornet transcends basketball. He is more like a movie star/ statesman cum basketball god . 30ppg , 14rpg , 11apg ,4+ stocks And great %s. And thats his FLOOR !!!! Luke Kornet is gonna do it all ,and hes gonna get away with it......
  27. 9 points
  28. 9 points
    Cannot wait for the Isaiah Thomas tribute video from the Cavs.
  29. 9 points
    Yeah, you need to sober up...
  30. 9 points
    Self-employed. Office closed due to renovations. Team renovations!
  31. 9 points
    Jordan Montgomery is a guy that I've noticed a lot in my research of starting pitchers, his numbers under the hood continually stood out positively and I think he could be a great value pick at his current price (NFBC ADP of 251) making him an intriguing sleeper going into 2018. Looking back at 2017, Montgomery made his major league debut and posted a 3.88 ERA with an 8.34 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, and a 1.22 HR/9 in 155.1 innings. At first glance his rate stats weren't great, particularly that HR rate which was a little ugly, and that is the reason that his FIP (4.07) and xFIP (4.45) were both worse than his ERA. Still though, a pretty solid MLB debut for Montgomery. Let's look under the hood to see where Montgomery really shines. Looking at Montgomery's stuff, let's start with the bad before the good. Note that all this data is among those that pitched at least 110 innings last year. Montgomery's fastball wasn't good at all, and was worth -8 runs above average which ranked 94th best in the majors. That fastball had just a 6.26% whiff rate which is very much below average, and it also induced a high flyball rate (45.7%). Now you can achieve success in the majors without having a valuable fastball, lots of examples exist like Aaron Nola (2016 fastball was worth -8.4 runs above average, 2017's was worth -3.7), and Mashiro Tanaka (2017 fastball was worth -15.4 runs above average). Montgomery also has a sinker that was the his 2nd most used pitch (23.41%) that failed to both generate whiffs (5.10%) and generate ground-balls at a high rate (39%) and ultimately was a very much below average pitch. Now the key to achieving success without a decent fastball or sinker is obviously to have great secondary weapons and this is exactly what Montgomery has. His slider was worth 2.4 runs above average and that ranked 43rd best in the majors. Ahead of names like Rich Hill, Trevor Bauer, and Justin Verlander. That slider also had a fantastic whiff rate of 18.36%. Next up is his curveball which was worth 10.3 runs above average and that ranked 7th best in the majors. Ahead of names like Clayton Kershaw, Carlos Carrasco, and Zack Greinke. That curveball had an incredible 19.24% whiff rate which is truly impressive. The last piece of Montgomery's arsenal is his changeup which was worth 8.2 runs above average and that ranked 10th best in the majors. Ahead of names like Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, and Dallas Keuchel. The changeup had a well above-average 15.15 whiff rate. That's 3 off-speed pitches that all can be legit out pitches and that in theory makes him a very difficult pitcher to predict for opposing batters. If he can take a step forward with his fastball and or sinker, he will become downright nasty to face! Let's take a look at Montgomery's plate discipline metrics: Again this data has a 110 innings minimum - Montgomery’s out-of-zone swing rate of 33.2% ranked in a tie for 10th best in the majors with Ivan Nova. Ahead of names like Dallas Keuchel, Jacob Degrom, Clayton Kershaw, and Justin Verlander - Montgomery’s out-of-zone contact rate of 55.9% ranked 17th best in the majors. Ahead of names like Yu Darvish, Marcus Stroman, Zack Greinke, and Carlos Martinez - Montgomery’s zone contact rate of 86.3% ranked in a tie for 61st best in the majors with John Lackey, Madison Bumgarner, and Chad Kuhl. Ahead of names like Sonny Gray, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks. - Montgomery’s overall contact rate of 73.9% ranked 20th best in the majors. Ahead of names like James Paxton, Sonny Gray, Rich Hill, and Alex Wood. - Montgomery’s swinging strike rate of 12.2% ranked in a tie for 18th, surprisingly with Dan Straily. That 12.2% is JUST behind Zack Greinke and Yu Darvish, and is ahead of names like Lance McCullers, Sonny Gray, Alex Wood, and Jimmy Nelson. As you can see, Montgomery has a lot of top 20 SP skills and rates well against his peers. I love that he gets hitters to chase so often, as it tells me his stuff is so good that looks it like a strike and then it's not. It's also tough to do damage on pitches not in the strike-zone so being one of the guys that can get hitters to expand their zone more than usual is fantastic. His contact rates across the board are very solid, particularly on pitches outside the zone. His swinging strike rate is also very strong and that leads me to suggest that we could see an uptick in his K rate next year. Couple more things I want to mention: Montgomery's .250/.323/.409 (317 wOBA) line when going through the order the third time might not look that bad at first glance, but Montgomery did struggle some to go through the order a 3rd time. This is highlighted with a big drop in K’s going from 23 K% the first time through, to 26.3 K% the second time through, to 12.5 K% the third time through. That along with a slightly higher BB% the 3rd time through the order led to 5.43 FIP and 5.64 xFIP the 3rd time through the order which is of concern. Good news is the Yankees have a great bullpen and that should help him secure good outings if he struggles to go through the order a 3rd time again. Also want to point out that Montgomery was dominant against lefty hitters, limiting them to a .195/.271/.391 (.285 wOBA) compared to a .241/.301/.386 line (.297 wOBA) against righties. He definitely didn't struggle against right-handed batters though so I have no concerns about platoon issues. He has the weapons to get both out consistently. Last thing I want to mention is that yes Montgomery does lean slightly fly-ball in terms of contact against (41.6% FB rate, 40.7% GB rate) and that is a concern with him pitching at Yankee stadium and AL East ballparks consistently. That is of some concern, but I would expect his HR rate of 1.22/9 to drop a bit closer to 1 even. Overall I see a lot of positive traits in Montgomery and think he has top 20 fantasy SP upside! He has 3 well above-average secondary offerings that generate whiffs at a high rate and can get both lefties and righties out. He doesn't kill himself with walks, he has a great lineup to support him and a great bullpen to help him secure good starts or help him get out of potential problems the 3rd time through the order. Right now, Montgomery is penciled into the 5th rotation spot for the Yankees on Roster Resource, and there are rumors of them adding one more starter, but at worst I think he's the swingman and an injury or lack of performance away from a full time gig in the rotation. I see the skills for him to succeed when he gets that chance in the rotation, and absolutely think he can outperform his current ADP of 251 (from NFBC).
  32. 9 points
  33. 9 points
    If you think that then I think you're misreading. 103, 58, 61, 63. Do you know what that is? His season, 30 day, 14 day, 7 day rank. If you can't get on board with that it's your problem. We're not here to sell anything to you, we're here to discuss a player which could have been had for nothing. A player who is producing real value. How many players per team are there in your hypothetical 12 teamer?
  34. 8 points
    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/article/37887/2018-dynasty-top-101-prospects-list/
  35. 8 points
    I found this on Reddit and thought it was really interesting so I thought I'd share it here too. It's a fantasy-focused list that includes 2018 draft eligible players like Brady Singer, Ethan Hankins, and Nolan Gorman which I thought was unique. The list also includes a blurb on each player, rough ETAs, and prime projections for each player (the expectation, the ceiling, and the floor) which again is really interesting. 1-15: https://docs.google.com/document/d/15HGVbSvsayoYBTtIjRKo56iFAPnbRDS8CAfWf5g6UrM/edit 16-30: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ezb5R-Lkpi6AHQn49vTyy8AUonijq0Nbv7PVvYFzL80/edit 31-45: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1FIK79RN3UU3zl3eaD3ZgeTxgTyle9PbSAerKYMxAVG4/edit 46-60: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1__e7kyHPY9U9UnfyBQ-wL8YiK_q49yr3ud5UHuwEse8/edit 61-75: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1F7HyvttidVYpcpDYI_wJOpjWkvXxe1gSQuctZT5vjSw/edit 76-105: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xC2PEIGjD7zYOke9ybJvEImebAIGkJah3PyIDjIS5iw/edit
  36. 8 points
    When Hue Jackson heard the news
  37. 8 points
    I'd have to be receiving one to draft Tulo.
  38. 8 points
    Huh? From a dynasty player prospective: 1. Commissioners need to see who is back in and go recruit for any orphaned teams. 2. Lots of leagues have slow drafts going on that can take a couple of weeks or more. 3. You need to look over the free agent pool and study what prospects have been added to the database to help decide on who you keep or drop. 4. Time to discuss and vote on rules changes etc on the message boards. 5. You need a gap of hopefully a week between keepers in and the draft so you can see what dropped players you may target as well and edit your draft page accordingly. Remember people working long hours often prefer at least one weekend to edit their drafts instead of staying up late on week nights. 6. A lot of us are in multiple leagues so staggering the mini live draft dates is crucial. 7. Add in the trades and it gets pretty darn busy in my leagues.
  39. 8 points
    Jeez you guys have short memories. 3,7,0,0,5,0, and 4. Those are the scoring numbers he put up in 7 games Chriss missed with that hip injury just 12 days ago. Is he playing better now, sure but not act like his play can't just fall off the earth again. The opportunity was there and quite frankly has always been there but he has been awful for the most part. Bender won't ever be a must own this year prob.
  40. 8 points
    Wow the Cavs have completely changed their team like this was NBA 2K18
  41. 8 points
    God no. Chriss can be useful in fantasy. But he is not a good basketball player. He has the bball IQ of a sock.
  42. 8 points
    Live look at the city of Philadelphia in 3....2.....1.... May god help the residents.
  43. 8 points
    im taking the 8th off of work because of fantasy and the trade deadline. beat that!
  44. 8 points
    He hit that rookie wall and busted through the other side screaming “OH YEAH!”.
  45. 8 points
    From 10/27 to 1/1 Taurean Prince averaged 13.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.6 blocks, 1.9 threes, shooting .450 and .766, with 2.2 turnovers Highly serviceable numbers, that put him at rank 91 for that time period. Exactly what BoogieNights said, reliable mid-late round value.
  46. 8 points
    Gallo is perfect as a Boogie replacement, minus the FG, pts, reb, assists, steals, blocks and beast mode-ness.
  47. 8 points
    Ok let me try again. . . joshua18 Posted August 9, 2017 I hope people irrationally keep hating on Luck and the IND offense. As long as they don't add a legit QB, his worst case is missing week 1. Which is still unlikely considering he's played his last 19 games with a throwing shoulder bad enough to require surgery. joshua18 Posted August 9, 2017 They would have signed another QB by now if that was the case. His prognosis for strength recovery from all publicly known medical information is 6 weeks from mid July. That means if everything goes well, he won't miss any games. The team is bracing from a PR standpoint in case there is a setback which would delay the timetable enough to endanger week 1 (September 10th), but would have signed a vet if they were really concerned.
  48. 8 points
    It's always the thread's fault or some expert's fault when I make a bad pickup; whenever I make a good pickup, it's because I'm super smart.
  49. 8 points
    big league *pitchers. there fixed ^^
  50. 8 points
    Besides you updating this thread and making us all believe there was new news?