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  1. 29 points
    Somewhat like what I did earlier for Steals, I'm taking a closer look at blocks in this thread. Even though the deviation for blocks is bigger than for steals, and they haven't been trending downwards as much as steals in recent years, it's still one of the harder cats to compete in, especially when you don't want to hurt your chances in other cats. First of all, let's look at some historical data and trends. I've filtered out player's seasons where they played 20 games or less (sorry, Zo, Dhantay, Theo and Edy). Over the past 3 decades, there have been 87 players to average 2 or more blocks per game over the course of a season. 38 of them did this over the past decade. Now, if we look at higher averages: 3 blocks/game: 17 players over past 30 years, 2 in the past decade 4 blocks/game: 5 players over past 30 years, 0 in last decade (matter of fact, 0 over past 2 decades, 4 players between 98 and 92) How many players averaged 2 blocks per game, or more? 2016 - 2017: 6 2015 - 2016: 5 2014 - 2015: 7 2013 - 2014: 4 2012 - 2013: 8 2011 - 2012: 5 2010 - 2011: 6 2009 - 2010: 6 2008 - 2009: 6 2007 - 2008: 9 2006 - 2007: 11 2005 - 2006: 12 2004 - 2005: 13 2003 - 2004: 12 2002 - 2003: 10 2001 - 2002: 11 2000 - 2001: 12 1999 - 2000: 10 1998 - 1999: 13 1997 - 1998: 14 1996 - 1997: 13 1995 - 1996: 10 1994 - 1995: 8 1993 - 1994: 10 1992 - 1993: 10 1991 - 1992: 14 1990 - 1991: 14 1989 - 1990: 11 1988 - 1989: 9 1987 - 1988: 8 It's becoming harder and harder to secure a win in the blocks cat by adding a monster shotblocker early. There just aren't as many players giving 2+ blocks per game, and even less of them get the 3 or 4+ numbers they got in the past. And what average topped the league? 2016-17 Rudy Gobert at 2.64 2015-16 Hassan Whiteside at 3.68 2014-15 Anthony Davis at 2.94 2013-14 Anthony Davis at 2.82 2012-13 Serge Ibaka at 3.02 2011-12 Serge Ibaka at 3.65 2010-11 Andrew Bogut at 2.58 2009-10 Dwight Howard at 2.78 2008-09 Dwight Howard at 2.92 2007-08 Marcus Camby at 3.61 2006-07 Marcus Camby at 3.3 2005-06 Marcus Camby at 3.29 2004-05 Andrei Kirilenko at 3.32 2003-04 Theo Ratliff at 3.61 2002-03 Theo Ratliff at 3.23 2001-02 Ben Wallace at 3.48 2000-01 Theo Ratliff at 3.74 1999-00 Alonzo Mourning at 3.72 1998-99 Alonzo Mourning at 3.91 1997-98 Marcus Camby at 3.65 1996-97 Shawn Bradley at 3.4 1995-96 Dikembe Mutombo at 4.49 1994-95 Dikembe Mutombo at 3.91 1993-94 Dikembe Mutombo at 4.1 1992-93 Hakeem Olajuwon at 4.17 1991-92 David Robinson at 4.49 1990-91 Hakeem Olajuwon at 3.95 1989-90 Hakeem Olajuwon at 4.59 1988-89 Manute Bol at 4.31 1987-88 Mark Eaton at 3.71 Blocks have been clearly trending down. Even a Whiteside, who turned in a throwback season a year ago, averaging a monster 3.68 average (highest sincce 2000-2001 when Ratliff averaged 3.74), seems preoccupied with scoring nowadays. Gobert is your best bet to average 3+ blocks now, since he understand his limitations better than most others do. The Jazz are a great defensive team with steady contributors, a good coach and Gobert is still developing. Now let's take a look at more recent seasons - what are the trends we can find for draftable players? Let's assume your league has 12 teams and each team has 13 players rostered, and it's a 9-cat league. That's 156 players rostered. Be aware that this is somewhat of a flawed assumption - often great shotblockers rank outside of the top 156 overall. What's the average amount of blocks these top 156 players got for each season? 2016 - 2017: 0.650 2015 - 2016: 0.680 2014 - 2015: 0.673 2013 - 2014: 0.641 2012 - 2013: 0.665 2011 - 2012: 0.662 2010 - 2011: 0.653 2009 - 2010: 0.675 2008 - 2009: 0.661 2007 - 2008: 0.626 2006 - 2007: 0.607 2005 - 2006: 0.645 2004 - 2005: 0.684 2003 - 2004: 0.713 Some fun info which might come of use in your draft/league: You want to be in that .650-.680 (see above) ballpark to at least stay competitive in the block cat. In the 14-16 years we've seen somewhat of a higher average output in blocks, while last year has been one of the worse years. With the emergence of guys like Embiid, Turner, Porz, KAT, Davis etc, I can see the average trending back towards, or hopefully even upwards of, .700. Average blocks/game per position for top 156 ranked players: PG: 0.269, SG: 0.360, SF: 0.449, PF: 0.739, C: 1.150. Draft players under these averages at this position, and you'll have to make it up somewhere else to stay competitive. Chances to grab a good shotblocker go waaaay down after the 4th round (average amount of blocks for each round: 1 - 0.816, 2 - 0.929, 3 - 0.908, 4 - 0.801, 5 - 0.592, 6 - 0.512, 7 - 0.751, 8 - 0.572, 9 - 0.376, 10 - 0.604, 11 - 0.427, 12 - 0.585, 13 - 0.556). Get your blocks in time- you don't want to be that desperate owners grabbing John Henson of off waivers. He sucks. If you fail early, secure Robin Lopez, Andre Roberson and such late if you want to alleviate things a tiny bit. Out of position blocks (guards and small forwards contributing above average amount of blocks; draft these guys and you can let blocks slide somewhere else): PG (average 0.269) John Wall 0.641 - Started out last year averaging close to a block per game up until Xmas. Jrue Holiday 0.627 - Could suffer a bit, playing SG. With the team even mentioning him defending SF's, it could suffer a lot. Elfrid Payton 0.488 - See this trending up. He's becoming quite serviceable. Marcus Smart 0.418 - Getting more minutes and playing a bigger role on defense, I can see him averaging over .600 blocks per game. Ish Smith 0.407 - Just wanted to mention Ish. Also wanted to say he's a better PG than Reggie Jackson. SVG knows it. Don't @ me. Eric Bledsoe 0.470 - Always been a shotblocking guard. But, he's had his healthy year, so he's up for two injured ones now. SG (average 0.360) CJ McCollum 0.563 - See this going up with Nurk in the middle. Believe me, Lillard, CJ and Harkless will love playing next to Nurk, and their defense will improve. Dwyane Wade 0.700 - This average is going down, unless he gets a starting gig (CLE). Tyler Johnson 0.616 - Lots of competition in this backcourt, but he's got some talent and grit. Danny Green 0.838 - Game is trending down. Change in style of play with the Spurs had him suffer most. Still good numbers at the end of a draft. Josh Richardson 0.755 - Great allround game, as mentioned in the Steals post. Could get up to 1 block a game with 27+ minutes/night. Andre Roberson 1.025 - Dude shot .1875% FT in the playoffs. He better block some shots then to make up for that percentage. Kent Bazemore 0.726 - Always been a fun little source of blocks and steals, but never really got the chance to play extended minutes. Maybe this is the year. SF (average 0.449) Moe Harkless 0.883 - See CJ. Kevin Durant 1.597 - Best fantasy player, does it all. Robert Covington 1.030 - Could suffer a bit. Then again, he's their best (and only) wing defender who'll see any minutes, Al-Farouq Aminu 0.738 - See a regression in minutes, as his game starts gets outdated. Never added much skills at all. Kawhi Leonard 0.730 - Almost the best fantasy player, does it all. Beware of the Blockblockers (draft one of these and you'll have to make up for it somewhere else): Tyson Chandler 0.532 - Used to be a decent option for blocks, but is now 100% focused on grabbing rebounds and kicking them out. Enes Kanter 0.542 - Points and rebounds. Hasn't encountered blocking a shot from nearby yet. Kelly Olynyk 0.373 - If he blocks a shot, it's purely by accident. Zaza Pachulia 0.471 - Has other ways of taking out the opposing team's scorers. Guillermo Hernangomez 0.500 - Should be a bit better, but defense must improve. Could now lose a lot of minutes to Kanter. Who's basically the same. Greg Monroe 0.457 - Underrated player. On offense. Channing Frye 0.514 - Doesn't get near enough to a basket to actually block a shot. Kevin Love 0.400 - Too busy getting 'Primo '. Blake Griffin 0.410 - Never been much of a shotblocker. Ryan Anderson 0.194 - Never been much of anything but a shooter. Jon Leuer 0.360 - Never been much of anything. Zach Randolph 0.151 - Love his game, just not for defensive purposes. Patrick Patterson 0.354 - Somehow he changed his whole game when returning to Kentucky as a junior, and has been quite useless since. Thaddeus Young 0.392 - Steals, bad free throws and some rebounds. Just don't expect blocks here. Ersan Ilyasova 0.305 - Praying he doesn't take away minutes from my man John Collins. Jarett Allen (?) - I've seen Rotoworld peg him as a shotblocking specialist. I don't think he'll be a great shotblocker. I'm not saying he won't average an above average amount of them, just not sure if you should draft him as a specialist. Last, but not least (well maybe least), here's my sleeper picks for blocks this year: Edy Tavares - IF he makes the roster. Won't do much other than stand in the way of a shot or 2 in very limited minutes. Don't see it happening, but want bragging rights when it does. Now on to more serious candidates. Jusuf Nurkic - Is getting overdrafted a bit, so not the greatest player to slap a sleeper tag on. But his potential for blocks+steals+ast is crazy. Just stay healthy and keep out of foul trouble. "Just". Deyonta Davis - Great shotblocker, but needs to work on every other part of his game. Could see extended minutes with ZBO gone and Gasol/Jam the only viable frontcourt players. Unless Patton and Martin make some noise. Davis is the only rimprotector on the team, though (was that last year and they didnt give him much PT either, then). Alan Williams - Bad luck with the injury, but he's rebounding monster who deserves a chance to start over Chandler and Len. Clint Capela - Not going unnoticed in drafts either, like Nurk. Playing with CP could do wonders for him, and he's a great rim protector. Gotta swallow that ugly FT%, though. Dewayne Dedmon - My favorite sleeper in this list, and maybe altogether this season. Should see most minutes he's gotten so far in his career in ATL. Could be fun duo with John Collins. Jerami Grant - Still learning how to play ball, but athletic freak. With Kanter and Gibson gone, could see more minutes this year. Doesn't need many of them to chip in steals and blocks. Richaun Holmes - Embiid needs to stay healthy, and Jahlil glued to the bench for thiss to happen, but could be serviceable. Serge Ibaka - Moving more and more towards the rim, and thus getting back to his old rim protecting days. Won't see 3+ bpg seasons anymore, but wouldnt be surprised to see him end the season as the starter at C. Robin Lopez - Very decent and cheap source of BLK. Not a great rebounder, but doesn't hurt you in FT/TO. Pascal Siakam - Nobody expected him to play as much as he did, and could be their future starter at PF. Decent game, and developing. Willie Cauley-Stein - Love his multi-cat potential. Called him a budget Noah a while ago, and could see him combine great steals totals with great blocking totals. I think he's getting underdrated. Boban Marjanovic - Only needs a funny twenty minutes to get you very very decent rebounding and ast numbers. Doesn't hurt FT or TO, which is great, as well. Ian Mahinmi - Was injured most of last year, when the Wizards tried to play Gortat less minutes. Second chance this year and proved he could do some damage in Indiana. Don't waste a pick on him, though. Wait and see. Moe Harkless - Starter at SF in Portland. Will thrive with Nurkic manning the middle. I can see him get close to 1.4 blk/game. Still developing: He's the samee age as Norman Powell and Willie Cauley-Stein. OG Anunoby - Averaged 1.3 blocks per game as a soph in college, and the Raps drafted him to be their future SF. Absolute monster on defense and looks like a 7 year vet. Will probably get 1+ block per game as soon as he's back healthy. Zach Collins - Not in redraft, but for dynasty purposes, I think Zach is a great shotblocker to get on board for the future. Also chips in several other stats. Bam Adebayo - I can see him carve out a role much sooner than most expected. Game is much more complete than we thought it was, as shown this summer. Will probably get 1+ block right from the moment he starts getting PT, which admittedly could take a year. John Collins - Not persé a GREAT shotblocker, but with athleticism he'll get a fair amount of them, much like A'm'a're in the past. Should get more than enough minutes to be already of service as a rookie. More reading:
  2. 25 points
    Somewhat like what I did earlier for Steals and Blocks, I'm taking a closer look at Assists and Turnovers in this thread. I've always been a big fan of players with low TO (Chris Paul has been fantastic), and if you want to win both your AST and TO cats, it takes some careful building to have a chance there. Now, this post will be a bit more complex and longer than the previous ones, mainly because there's a strong correlation between AST and TO, but they're not always tied together, nor are they of equal value to everybody. I'll try to structure the information though. It's fun going through historical data, as you come across some stats you had totally forgotten about. Who remembers Greivis Vasquez averaging 9 ast a game a few years ago? As usual, let's look at some historical data and trends. I've filtered out player's seasons where they played 20 games or less. Over the past 3 decades (since 1987-88), there have been 57 occurrences where a player averaged 10 or more Assists per game over the course of a season. 24 of those happened over the last 10 years. That's a really good amount of years with great AST production. There's only been 19 players who've achieved this feat over the last three decades. When understanding how hard it is to average 10+ast over the course of a season, it's amazing how 'available' they have been over the last decade. This is a list of guys to average 10+ AST since 1987: Once: Andre Miller Gary Grant James Harden Michael Adams Rod Strickland Terry Porter Tim Hardaway Twice: Mark Jackson Muggsy Bogues Russell Westbrook Three times: Jason Kidd John Wall Four: Deron Williams Kevin Johnson Magic Johnson Rajon Rondo Five: Chris Paul Seven: Steve Nash Ten: John Stockton Now, if we look at lower averages, how many times were the following averages achieved? 7 Assists/game: 364 over past 30, 104 in the past decade 8 Assists/game: 216 over past 30, 63 in the past decade 9 Assists/game: 105 over past 30, 36 in the past decade And what average topped the league? Season Player APG 2016-17 James Harden 11.2 2015-16 Rajon Rondo 11.65 2014-15 Chris Paul 10.22 2013-14 Chris Paul 10.69 2012-13 Rajon Rondo 11.05 2011-12 Rajon Rondo 11.7 2010-11 Steve Nash 11.4 2009-10 Steve Nash 11.01 2008-09 Chris Paul 11.04 2007-08 Chris Paul 11.56 2006-07 Steve Nash 11.63 2005-06 Steve Nash 10.46 2004-05 Steve Nash 11.48 2003-04 Jason Kidd 9.22 2002-03 Jason Kidd 8.89 2001-02 Andre Miller 10.89 2000-01 Jason Kidd 9.78 1999-00 Jason Kidd 10.12 1998-99 Jason Kidd 10.78 1997-98 Rod Strickland 10.54 1996-97 Mark Jackson 11.4 1995-96 John Stockton 11.17 1994-95 John Stockton 12.33 1993-94 John Stockton 12.57 1992-93 John Stockton 12.04 1991-92 John Stockton 13.73 1990-91 John Stockton 14.2 1989-90 John Stockton 14.54 1988-89 John Stockton 13.63 1987-88 John Stockton 13.76 Over the past 3 decades (since 1987-88), there have been only 28 occurrences where a player averaged 4 or more turnovers per game over the course of a season. 10 of those happened over the last 10 years. Russ (5.4) and Harden (5.7) averaging over 5 TO's the past season has been the first occurrence over the past three decades. Worse, only Pete Maravich ever averaged 5 TO's (77-78), but he only combined it with 6.7 AST. Only 54 time has there been a player to average over 4 TO's in the history of the NBA, and four of them came last season, so there's that. This is a list of guys to average over 4 TO's a season in the past decade: Harden (2), Russ (3), James (1), Wall (2), Boogie (1) and Wade (1). Now, if we look at lower averages, how many times were the following averages achieved? 4 turnovers/game: 54 over past 10, 4 in the past season 3 turnovers/game: 731 over past 10, 10 in the past season So there's a really thin line there, with players averaging over 4 AST - it doesn't happen much, but between 3 and 4 happens all the time. Not only does this mean it's not that big a problem if one of the guys in your team averages over 4 a game, but at the same time, it means it's also a challenge to fully correct high TO's. Let's take a look at more recent seasons - what are the trends we can find for draftable players? Assume your league has 12 teams and each team has 13 players rostered, and it's a 9-cat league. That's 156 players rostered. What's the average amount of Assists and TO's (and AST:TO ratio) these top 156 players got for each season over the past decade? 2016-17 3.05 AST, 1.75 TO, 1.74 AST:TO 2015-16 3.03 AST, 1.8 TO, 1.68 AST:TO 2014-15 2.92 AST, 1.77 TO, 1.65 AST:TO 2013-14 3.11 AST, 1.88 TO, 1.66 AST:TO 2012-13 3.23 AST, 1.88 TO, 1.72 AST:TO 2011-12 3.06 AST, 1.85 TO, 1.66 AST:TO 2010-11 3.12 AST, 1.83 TO, 1.70 AST:TO 2009-10 3.01 AST, 1.83 TO, 1.65 AST:TO 2008-09 3.12 AST, 1.89 TO, 1.65 AST:TO 2007-08 3.29 AST, 1.87 TO, 1.75 AST:TO Very steady. And even though we had a three guys with 10+ AST, 5 with 9+ and 6 with 8+ the past season, the average has still been at the lowest point we've seen this past decade, while the TO's have been the second highest over the past ten years. Now a closer look at the average production per position for last season reveals the following info: PG average 6.04 AST, 2.43 TO SG average 2.81 AST, 1.57 TO SF average 2.13 AST, 1.30 TO PF average 2.12 AST, 1.52 TO C average 1.68 AST, 1.50 TO Some fun info which might come of use in your draft/league... or just useless info: Rajon Rondo had a streak of 37 games in which he had 10+ ast in 2012. He's really underrated. The longest such streak in the past season belongs to Wall, who 13 straight 10+ ast games. Harden had a 12 and 9 game streak. There have been 33 20+ AST games over the last decade. Rondo has 8 of them, Nash 5, CP 4, Deron 5. There's one other player to have multiple 20+ AST games in the past 10 years. Name him. Will Bynum once had a 20 AST game in which he took 4 shots. CP, Ricky Green and John Lucas had 20 AST, 0 TO games. Green and CP also added 3 steals, and CP sscored 20 points as well. That's amazing and it'll win you your weekly matchup, I bet. The only guy I could see posting a 20 AST/0TO game right now, aside from CP, would be TJ McConell, if he'd get a chance. The other way around: Guys who ruined your weekly in TO's...Bill Cartwright, Yao Ming and Buck Williams are the only three players to ever post 10 TO's and 0 (zero) AST in a game. Ralph Sampson once had 11 TO and 0 TO's. Among acctive players, Dwight Howard, Derrick Rose and Robert Covington all three have had 10+ TO, 1 AST games in their careers. Ouch! Joel Embiid was the only playeer to have a game with 8 or more TO's and less than 2 AST last year. There were 55 games in which a player posted 8+ TO's last year. Harden took care of 14 (25%) of those, and Russsell Westbrook had another 14. Wall had 5, Boogie 4, Schröder and James 3 each. On to more evaluation: Assists are typically a PG stat, and like I did in the prior posts, I'll take a look at out-of-position production a bit later on. Now, because the stat is so reliant on PG's, I'm taking a bit more time to analyze the position in specific relation to AST and TO. Because there are less 'anomalies' like Draymond, Bron and Giannis, at the PG position, the deviations and spread are a bit less here. Among the top 156 players on average in 9-cat, there aren't any PG's who produce more than 50% worse than their counterparts in AST. Patty Mills has the lowest AST output among PG's, and I only categorized him as a PG because Parker is out for a while. As a big fan of good AST:TO ratios, I'd like to shed my light on a selection of very effective PGs in this group: Chris Paul 9.25/2.41 - Slowed down a bit, but in D'Antoni's system you can bet on 10 AST per game again. TJ McConnell 6.60/1.98 - Simmons having ball in hands and Fultz joining should hurt. I would love to see him start somewhere. Elfrid Payton 6.45/2.18 - Improved a bit, but how far is he from his ceiling, since he still hasn't developed a shot? Mike Conley 6.26/2.26 - Should be as steady as he's been in past seasons. Those three (minus TJ) are great options at PG, with above average AST rates (from 3% more than average (Conley) up to 53% more than average (CP) production). These guys help out a lot in AST and 'barely' hurt your TO, and like mentioned, I'd just love to see McConell be able to start somewhere. ----------- Ish Smith* 5.17/1.37 - Could he push Reggie for the starting position? Reggie Jackson was never healthy last year. He was never a good PG either. Jameer Nelson 5.13/1.72 - He's probably in for one last season. And he'll probably win the backup position over Mudiay as well. Ty Lawson 4.86/1.88 - He should be in China by now. Darren Collison* 4.59/1.66 - Very underrated fantasy player. Great ratio, great percentages, great chance to carve out a good role in Indiana. Malcolm Brogdon* 4.25/1.49 - People had to pay attention with him winning ROY, but still severely underrated. Patrick Beverley* 4.21/1.49 - Always been underrated, but should still put up right about the same stats he did before. Yogi Ferrell* 3.76/1.52 - Rumored to play some SG as well. Don't see many chances for him to produce. Patty Mills* 3.49/1.26 - Until Parker is back, he could be a good option. Adds 3pm as well. These guys where below average for their position in AST, but are really good at taking care of the ball. They are far below avergae for PGs in TO, and some (marked with an *) are even below league average, at any position. The main message here, is that these guys helped out a lot in AST but also can help you win your TO matchup at the same time. This is far more valuable than what their ADP indicates! Now, Ferrell could play some SG, according to the Mavs (don't look at me, I didn't make that up - this is the same league where the Pelicans decided it might be worth trying to put Jrue on guys like Durant this upcoming sseason...), Lawson will probably not even play in the league this season, and Nelson could beat out Mudiay for backup PG duties, but none of them is worth drafting right now. However, you can get Collison at a really good ADP, even though he's probably the starter in Indiana, Brogdon still isn't expensive, Beverley could play a lot of offguard in LA, but he did so as well in Hou - there's a chance at good production here, and Ish Smith is a better PG than Reggie Jackson, something SVG also knows. These guys have value. There are some PG's who didn't make the top 156 list, but who might have some value in AST. Let's include them in this analysis, and see if any of them is worth drafting/picking up. These guys have clear flaws, lack a clear way to minutes, or might just offer too little (overall) value to be even considered. They might have some value if a starter goes down or if you're really really desperate for any production: Decent AST:TO guys: Tony Parker - Could be of help in FG as well, generally is undrafted and has been that way for a few seasons now. He's the girl at the club you pick up just before leaving in a 'better than nothing mood'. Injury is big concern, so he'll stay on waivers for a while. Matthew Dellavedova - Lost out to a second round rookie. There'll have to be some really strange things to happen in Milwaukee for him to return to that little bit of value he once had. Spencer Dinwiddie - Always like him, and suffering that injury in college was killing. He's still a very steady, old school, PG. Too bad the Nets have quite some options at PG now. JJ Barea - Could provide some veteran production in the Mavs backcourt. Valuable with 20+ minutes a night. Was good, when healthy last year. Tim Frazier - Backup to Wall, who usually plays heavy minutes and misses few games. Was somewhat useful in NO. Tyus Jones - He's somewhat talented and a pretty good ballhandler. Lack of D won't earn him any extra minutes under Thibs. Ramon Sessions - Frank penciled in as future starter, and has to fight off Jack for minutes. Always been great per minute in AST. Good AST/Min guy: Tyler Ulis - This is a guy I really like in dynasty. Not only his size reminds me of Thomas. Good scorer, great passer. But, unlike Thomas, he can play some D as well. I can see the Suns giving him a chance this year. Also, Booker's guy. Bad AST:TO guys: Jamal Murray - Been on all kinds of breakout lists, but people forget he's not a great passer or defender and will play a secondary playmaking role with Jokic in Denver. Talented, but could be more of a Lou Williams than a true PG. Emmanuel Mudiay - Can't shoot, can't hit FTs, bad AST:TO ratio (although those last 8 games where somewhat promising), and has to deal, just like Murray, with Jokic handling the ball. Michael Carter-Williams - Yuck. Brandon Knight - Injured, but always been below average in anything other than racking up inefficient points. Isaiah Whitehead - Seems to be talented, but what is he? Terry Rozier - Untouchable asset in Boston, but is he a PG? Dante Exum - Looked good in SL, but there's now even fewer minutes available with Mitchell on board. There's talk of him playing more of a SG/SF role. Austin Rivers - Below average AST, above average AST. Did put up some stats in the playofffs, but...meeeh. Cameron Payne - LOL. Wade Baldwin - Talented, they said, but hasn't shown he's good at anything in the NBA. And, don't forget to consider these guys, who all had PG eligibility this past season (AST/TO): Tyreke Evans 3.13/1.53 - With Conley and Gasol setting up a lot of plays, I don't think Evans' AST numbers will thrive. Low TO is nice, though. James Harden 11.19/5.70 - AST should go down, TO as well. 5.7 was an incredible amount of TO per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo 5.43/2.93 - Amazing player, chipping in AST and can has PG,SG,SF and PF elig. Could see him add C this year as well. However, be aware of high TO numbers. CJ McCollum 3.58/2.15 - High AST for SG, but quite a lot of TO. Zach LaVine 2.98/1.81 - Coming back from bad injury, and eventhough the Wolves tried, he's no real PG. Barely above AST numbers for SG, but could increase playing with Dunn. Avery Bradley 2.18/1.62 - Very few AST, could see a bit more of them in DET (but less REB). Now, this is where I think you could get most value from this post. Obviously, not every position is equal, and you won'tt be expecting the same stats to come from every position. Centers, in general will have fewer AST, while not necessarily have very few TO's. With some smart constructing, you can get a huge amount of value from both your AST and TO cats. Out of Position AST (these players all get at least 40% more AST than the average at their respective positions): SG (average 2.81 AST) James Harden - No way he still gets 10+ AST per game, but should be way above aveerage still. Nicolas Batum - Steady playmaker, could see some more time at SF with Monk on the team. Jimmy Butler - Playing with Teague shouldn't affect his ast numbeers too much. Dion Waiters - You'll have to deal with loads of TO's and bad FG here. SF (average 2.13 AST) LeBron James - In for a MVP season, again. Kevin Durant - Best fantasy player also produced AST and good TO ratio. Kawhi Leonard - Should see more playmaking duties this year. Gordon Hayward - I think he'll be the same guy he was in Utah with maybe a few less points. Will Barton - Always been a good option if teammates have been injured. Just never has been trusted enough to keep steady minutes. Great all round production. Paul George (below average ast:to) - Won't see many playmaking options with Westbrook next to him. So, probably shouldn't list him here, right? PF (average 2.12 AST) Draymond Green - Unique player. Giannis Antetokounmpo - Unique player. Blake Griffin - Should see more touches and playmaking duties. DeMarcus Cousins (below average ast:to) - Don't think he'll set up as many plays as he did with the Kings. Rondo and Holiday will have the ball in their hands most of the time. Paul Millsap - Playing with Jokic could be a lot of fun for him. James Johnson - Can do it all. Julius Randle - I think his AST will come down, and he should be a trade target, as I dont think he's a great fit with Ball and Lopez. Justise Winslow - 3.7 as a PF last season, should continue to develop. C (average 1.68 AST) Al Horford - Always been good, but improved even more in recent years. Where's the rebounds, though? Nikola Jokic - He sucks. Marc Gasol - As steady as they come. Book another great year. Mason Plumlee - Wouldn't have expected him to stay with Nuggets. No market, it seems, and he will see fewer minutes this year. Nikola Vucevic - Underrated part of his game - passing. Karl-Anthony Towns (below average ast:to) - Don't think he'll live up to expectations this year. Too many mouths to feed, to little balls to share. Pau Gasol - I like this guy as an underrated last/late round pick. Now if we filter out the guys who are also averaging an below amount of TO's at their positions, only this guy is left: Pau Gasol Beware of the Ballhogs (50% less AST than average at position, draft one of these and you'll have to make up for it somewhere else): SG: Tony Allen Wayne Ellington Terrence Ross Andre Roberson Nick Young SF: DeMarre Carroll CJ Miles Dante Cunningham PF: Richaun Holmes Ryan Anderson Serge Ibaka Taj Gibson Kenneth Faried C: Hassan Whiteside Jonas Valanciunas Tyson Chandler Dewayne Dedmon And, as usual, here's my sleeper picks for Assists this year: Dejounte Murray - Is said to get first dibs at starting. Don't see him playing a whole lot of minutes yet, and Kawhi should handle the ball a lot. Still, he's got a world of talent, and could be a nice target for dynasty leagues. Tyler Ulis - I think he's just too good to come off the bench. Screw him being undersized. Blake Griffin - Clippers will run plays through him a lot. Always been a good passer, and should be able to get close to 6 AST/game. Julius Randle - Don't think it'll happen in LA, but he's too good a passer and playmaker to not usse him as such. Trade target? Kawhi Leonard - See Murray, Dejounte. Bryn Forbes - He was pretty neat in Summer League, and has some talent, but also a good foundation. Really smal chance he becomes valuable, but throw him on your watchlist, just to be sure. Delon Wright - I can see him handle the ball a bit, good size and good position to develop his game and get minutes. TJ McConnell - See my earlier notes. Elfrid Payton - Don't expect any offense, but he should be among league leaders in AST and get more STL, with great AST:TO. Darren Collison - See earlier notes. Is getting underddrafted this year, but clear starter in my book. Cory Joseph - And if my book is out-of-date, this is your guy. Was really decent as a starter in SA and Tor. JJ Barea - See earlier notes. Marcus Smart - More responsibilities and gained experienced, really decent AST guy with not so many TO. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson - See my post in the RHJ thread. I think he'll be setting up some plays as a PF. Good ballhandler. Pau Gasol - See earlier note. Deandre Bembry - Good ballhandler, great size, and could set up some fastbreaks with his terrific D. Jawun Evans - One of my favorite sleepers in this year's draft. Great pick by LAC, wouldve loved to see him learn under CP's wing. Dennis Smith Jr. - Prooooobably overdrafted in your league, but doesn't hurt to keep an eye on him. Free rein. Denzel Valentine - Always been a great playmaker and passer, just wasnt used as such in CHi. Yet. Dwyane Wade - Could be playing PG a lot, until IT is back. Patrick McCaw - I see added minutes and touches for him this year. Love his talent, maybe more suited for Dynasty. Victor Oladipo - Should get back to old AST numbers without Russ. Chandler Parsons - Is he finally healthy? Used to be decent source of AST. Justise Winslow - Developing really well as a passer. Khris Middleton - Always been one of my favorite underrated players, and could slip a bit when people forgot about him. Ricky Rubio - Not a real sleeper, but absolute Top Notch source of steals, assists and low TO in the middle rounds of your draft. Tim Hardaway Jr. - 70M man will get added responsibility in NYK and could handle the ball a bit more. Jusuf Nurkic - If he can stay healthy, he's a great passer in his own right. Joe Ingles - Hayward gone, and could see him thrive as a wing playmaker. Or Hood. Rodney Hood - Hayward gone, and could see him thrive as a wing playmaker. Or Ingles. More reading: Bonus: My favorite pick in NBA history:
  3. 23 points
    Looking at three pointers today, and I'll include another stat which often shows correlation with long range shooting: field goal percentage. As usual, let's look at some historical data and trends. I've filtered out player's seasons where they played 20 games or less. We all know the league has been gravitating towards more 3pt shooting over the past few years. Where PF's used to be big bruisers, they now need to be agile with 3pt range, and will thus be asked to defend long-range shooters as well. I miss the Oakley's and the Kevin Willis's, but it is what it is. We're stuck with Ryan Anderson and Channing Frye. In this overview, I've taken a core of the top 156 ranked players for each season (13 team, 14 roster spots), in 9 cat systems, unless stated otherwise. Data goes back up to 03-04, again, unless stated otherwise. Average amount of 3pm for Top 156: 03 - 04: 0.82 04 - 05: 0.85 05 - 06: 0.89 06 - 07: 0.92 07 - 08: 0.95 08 - 09: 0.95 09 - 10: 0.88 10 - 11: 0.86 11 - 12: 0.88 12 - 13: 0.95 13 - 14: 1.07 14 - 15: 1.00 15 - 16: 1.11 16 - 17: 1.30 Confirmation of what we all knew: threes exploded last season. A closer look at the average production per position for 03-04 compared to last season reveals the following info: PG average 1.20 vs 1.79 SG average 1.34 vs 1.81 SF average 0.83 vs 1.55 PF average 0.42 vs 1.00 C average 0.04 vs 0.42 Where PG and SG 'only' have only shown 49% and 35% growth, respectively, since 03-04, the biggest changes have been at PF and C. Going by last year's stats, your statistical needs per position should at least outweigh the following averages: PG 1.79 SG 1.81 SF 1.55 PF 1.00 C 0.42 If you're planning to win a cat, and your players are below average at one position, you'll need to make it up with another one. Steph Curry averaged an amazing amount of 4.10 3pm this past season, which is still a full 3pm below his 15-16 averages. He hit 78 more of them in 15-16 than he did last year. Either way, those are incredible numbers. We've all seen the stories about him and Klay ruling the 3pt charts in NBA history. Just a quick reminder: Steph Curry is the only one to hit more than 300 3pt in a season (324 last year, 402 in 15-16). Top 5 for totals ranks as follows: 1. Curry 402 (15-16, 79 games) 2. Curry 324 (16-17, 79 games) 3. Curry 286 (14-15, 80 games) 4. Klay 276 (15-16, 80 games) 5. Curry 272 (12-13, 78 games) Ray Allen is 6th with a 269 season. After that Klay (268), Dennis Scott (267), Harden (2262, last year) and Curry (261, 13-14). Even when considering how the game has changed, that's crazy. No players, other than Klay and Curry, have ever averaged more than 3.5 3pm per game. Before 14-15 only one guy ever attempted more than 8.5 threes a game, George McCloud (8.6), but he 'only' hit 3.3 of those, still top 10. Since the 14-15 campaign, it has happened five times, four of them last season. In NBA history, there have been 21 occurrences where a player averaged 3 or more 3pm per game over the course of a season, 15 of those came after the 12-13 season, 8 of them are by either Klay or Steph. Dennis Scott and George McCloud have been the only ones to ever hit more than 3 threes a game over the course of a season before 2000. Over the entire history of the league up to 2013-2014, there have been 245 instances of a player averaging 2+ threes per game, since then, it's been done 100 times. Simply put, the game has changed. And what average topped the league? Season Player 3P FG% 2016-17 - Stephen Curry - 4.1 - 0.468 2015-16 - Stephen Curry - 5.1 - 0.504 2014-15 - Stephen Curry - 3.6 - 0.487 2013-14 - Stephen Curry - 3.3 - 0.471 2012-13 - Stephen Curry - 3.5 - 0.451 2011-12 - Ryan Anderson - 2.7 - 0.439 2010-11 - Jason Richardson - 2.4 - 0.447 2009-10 - Aaron Brooks - 2.5 - 0.432 2008-09 - Rashard Lewis - 2.8 - 0.439 2007-08 - Jason Richardson - 3 - 0.441 2006-07 - Ray Allen - 3 - 0.438 2005-06 - Ray Allen - 3.4 - 0.454 2004-05 - Quentin Richardson - 2.9 - 0.389 2003-04 - Peja Stojakovic - 3 - 0.48 2002-03 - Ray Allen - 2.6 - 0.439 2001-02 - Ray Allen - 3.3 - 0.462 2000-01 - Antoine Walker - 2.7 - 0.413 1999-00 - Gary Payton - 2.2 - 0.448 1998-99 - Dee Brown - 2.8 - 0.378 1997-98 - Wesley Person - 2.3 - 0.46 1996-97 - Mookie Blaylock - 2.8 - 0.432 1995-96 - George McCloud - 3.3 - 0.414 1994-95 - Tim Hardaway - 2.7 - 0.427 1993-94 - Dan Majerle - 2.4 - 0.418 1992-93 - Dan Majerle - 2 - 0.464 1991-92 - Vernon Maxwell - 2 - 0.413 1990-91 - Michael Adams - 2.5 - 0.394 Top totals per year: Season Player 3P 2016-17 - Stephen Curry - 324 2015-16 - Stephen Curry - 402 2014-15 - Stephen Curry - 286 2013-14 - Stephen Curry - 261 2012-13 - Stephen Curry - 272 2011-12 - Ryan Anderson - 166 2010-11 - Dorell Wright - 194 2009-10 - Aaron Brooks - 209 2008-09 - Rashard Lewis - 220 2007-08 - Jason Richardson - 243 2006-07 - Raja Bell & Gilbert Arenas - 205 2005-06 - Ray Allen - 269 2004-05 - Quentin Richardson & Kyle Korver - 226 2003-04 - Peja Stojakovic - 240 2002-03 - Ray Allen - 201 2001-02 - Ray Allen - 229 2000-01 - Antoine Walker - 221 1999-00 - Gary Payton* - 177 1998-99 - Dee Brown - 135 1997-98 - Wesley Person - 192 1996-97 - Reggie Miller* - 229 1995-96 - Dennis Scott - 267 1994-95 - John Starks - 217 1993-94 - Dan Majerle - 192 1992-93 - Reggie Miller & Dan Majerle - 167 1991-92 - Vernon Maxwell - 162 1990-91 - Vernon Maxwell - 172 1989-90 - Michael Adams - 158 1988-89 - Michael Adams - 166 1987-88 - Danny Ainge - 148 As mentioned before, I want to include the influence this focus on long-range shooting has on our FG%. Comparing the 53 players who hit 2+ threes between 09 and 13 (53 players) with the 2+ club after 13 (100) shows that the FG% and 3pt% are almost identical: FG%: 43.6 vs 43.0 3pt%: 39.5 vs 37.4 Per position the average FG% for the top 156 ranked players looks like this, when compared to 03-04: PG: 0.42% vs 0.45% SG: 0.43% vs 0.45% SF: 0.44% vs 0.46% PF: 0.46% vs 0.47% C: 0.49% vs 0.55% Taking into consideration how much the amount of 3pt attempts has grown, and seeing how FG%'s have actually been higher in recent years is pretty cool to see. Selecting players for your team who will average an above amount of 3pm for their respective positions, combined with them being above average in FG% is a huge step in trying to win your league. Below is a list of players, by position, who rank above average in both categories: PG: Stephen Curry 47% FG, 4.10 3pm Chris Paul 48% FG, 2.03 3pm Isaiah Thomas 46% FG, 3.22 3pm Kyle Lowry 47% FG, 3.22 3pm Mike Conley 46% FG, 2.48 3pm George Hill 48% FG, 1.92 3pm SG: CJ McCollum 48% FG, 2.31 3pm Bradley Beal 48% FG, 2.90 3pm Klay Thompson 47% FG, 3.44 3pm Gary Harris 50% FG, 1.88 3pm Zach LaVine 46% FG, 2.55 3pm Avery Bradley 46% FG, 1.96 3pm Seth Curry 48% FG, 1.96 3pm Jordan Crawford 48% FG, 1.95 3pm Tim Hardaway Jr 46% FG, 1.89 3pm SF: Kevin Durant 54% FG, 1.89 3pm Kawhi Leonard 49% FG, 1.99 3pm LeBron James 55% FG, 1.68 3pm Otto Porter 51% FG, 1.85 3pm Gordon Hayward 47% FG, 2.04 3pm Kyle Korver 47% FG, 2.42 3pm Allen Crabbe 47% FG, 1.70 3pm PF: Serge Ibaka 48% FG, 1.57 3pm James Johnson 48% FG, 1.14 3pm C: Nikola Jokic 58% FG, 0.62 3pm Those were the players you probably saw on teams winning both 3's and FG last season. On the other hand, these guys hurt both 3pm AND FG at the same time: PG: Eric Bledsoe 43% FG, 1.58 3pm Jeff Teague 44% FG, 1.10 3pm Ricky Rubio 40% FG, 0.80 3pm Patrick Beverley 42% FG, 1.64 3pm Jeremy Lin 44% FG, 1.61 3pm Marcus Smart 36% FG, 1.19 3pm Rajon Rondo 41% FG, 0.72 3pm Yogi Ferrell 41% FG, 1.48 3pm SG: Dwyane Wade 43% FG, 0.75 3pm Tyler Johnson 43% FG, 1.27 3pm Danny Green 39% FG, 1.74 3pm Josh Richardson 40%FG, 1.42 3pm Garrett Temple 42% FG, 1.26 3pm Kent Bazemore 41% FG, 1.26 3pm SF: Rudy Gay 45% FG, 1.40 3pm Andrew Wiggins 45% FG, 1.26 3pm Will Barton 44% FG, 1.45 3pm Thabo Sefolosha 44% FG, 0.66 3pm PJ Tucker 41% FG, 0.86 3pm DeMarre Carroll 40% FG, 1.51 3pm PF: Markieff Morris 46% FG, 0.93 3pm Aaron Gordon 45% FG, 0.96 3pm C: Nikola Vucevic 47% FG, 0.31 3pm Greg Monroe 53% FG, 0.00 3pm Andre Drummond 53% FG, 0.02 3pm (remember when he was somewhat of a FG anchor?) Mason Plumlee 53% FG, 0.00 3pm Robin Lopez 49% FG, 0.00 3pm Kyle O'Quinn 52% FG, 0.03 3pm John Henson 51% FG, 0.00 3pm One thing I need to make clear here, I'm not saying these guys listed above are useless. Just don't draft/trade for them if you want to shore up your 3pt/FG%. Most of them are top 156 because they're strong in other cats, and sometimes are just below average in 3PT/FG. In a specific situation, I'd suggest taking a look at these players case-by-case and seeing if they didn't just have a down year in 16-17. It's also good to keep in mind that some managers will try to bring in a Lopez, Drummond, Monroe or even a Kanter (not listed because right at C average for FG%), to help them in their FG% category, but these players either don't move the needle (low volumes) or even hurt you there, compared to other centers. Bringing in a Lopez instead of an Al-Farouq Aminu if you need FG% and some hustle stats, obviously makes some sense. Some top-notch players like KAT, Harden, Lillard and Walker are just a few FG% points shy of making the FG%/3pm club, and they could very well be included next season. They're obviously not listed among my sleepers, but could be sneaky contributors in such cats. My (DEEP) sleeper picks for good FG% + plenty of 3's: Patty Mills - Added touches and minutes with Parker out, will results in more threes (1.84 per game), but might not help hi improve his 44% FG to the league average of 45%. Malcolm Brogdon - Good FG%, but should hit more threes. Not sure if attainable with Redd back and Snell improving a bit. Maybe Vaughn even shows signs of life. However, I'm relying on Brogdon improving after an impressive but somewhat boring (love that) rookie campaign. Hit 1.3 threes post AS break. Lonzo Ball - Hate the hype, but he has a chance to surpass the PG benchmarks as a rookie. Don't see any other rookie doing it this season. Dennis Schroder - Now the leader of the Hawks, he should see quite a bit more threes (1.27 last season). FG% could suffer, though, and watch out for those TO's. Jeremy Lin - Never been a huge fan, but he only needs small improvements to both FFG% and 3pm to make the list. Should improve a bit this season, with health and a defined role on team. Jamal Murray - Will have to improve his FG% quite a bit, but has the talent to make a mark here (not a ****stain like Mudiay did). Jerian Grant - Not too high on him, but has some tools. Could be sneaky pickup as the season progresses. It's not like he's totally roadblocked either. D'Angelo Russell - His shot selection has been weak and should improve by quite a bit, from 40% to 45%, in order for him to be a good influence on both 3pm and FG%. It's a bet that could pay off big time. Jrue Holiday - Always an injury concern, but he's still rather young and now playing off-guard with a great playmaker next to him, and two big men drawing defenders away from him. I expect him to average 2 threes and surpass 45% fg. Tony Snell - Developed well with the Bucks, shooting just under 46% FG and hitting 1.8 threes a game. Goes undrafted in many league, but shouldn't. Improved a lot over the course of last season, and contributes in steals while not hurting your TO's. Low key one of my favorite sleepers this season. Allen Crabbe - Dealing with injury at this moment, but he's a great sneaky source of FG+3pm combo. Evan Fournier - Didn't have the year I expected him to have. Loved it when I had him and Gary Harris as shooting guards a year ago, both chipped in good FG% and 3's. Jordan Clarkson - Only listing him because he's been rather close to the benchmarks I'm using. Playing with Ball could hem him surpass those, but just not a fan of his fantasy output. Josh Richardson - I'm going to act like 16-17 didn't happen. He's a good source for FG, 3pm AND hustle stats! Should have a good sophomore season if he can find his way to 24+ minutes a night! Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Always had troubles with his FG%, but playing with Ball could have a good influence on him. JJ Redick - His ranking and ADP have me wondering why people think he'll totally fall off. He's been fantastic with the Clippers, even when CP didn't play. He's got a few good years left in him, and will see a good number of minutes with the Sixers. Expect him to put up numbers close to his career averages there. They absolutely need his shooting. Eric Gordon - CP and EG. I'm GIDDDY! Tim Hardaway - I feel he's been underrated because 1. He was with the Knicks, 2. He's gotten paid too much by the Knicks. He's a decent player with lots of room to improve. He'll surpass .45FG if he doesn't start doing crazy stuff. Gary Harris - My favorite SG in the league. Does everything well, but has yet to take that next step to garner the respect he deserves. Always been an amazing source of FG% at SG. Only players to average 1.7 or more 3's and a FG over 50%? Otto Porter, Durant, Lebron and Gary Harris. KAT is close but only hits 1.2 threes. Seth Curry - Probably underrated because of him being compared to his brother all the time. I'll take this production around the 9th round anytime. Alex Abrines - Love his talent, and he could pass the benchmarks for SG this season. OKC needs some depth and shooting, and Abrines will get a decent number of minutes. Buddy Hield - I think he meets the benchmarks this year. Was close already last season. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot - Still a few years away, so only for dynasty purposes, but take a look at those games in the last months of 2016-2017! He's got loads of talent, but is still learning the basics of the game. Norman Powell - Lots of hype for him, and he did well in games he started. Just think Toronto prefers him coming off the bench. I'll mention him as a future target, or if something changes in Toronto, but far away from hitting enough 3's to be considered. Patrick McCaw - Will he see minutes? Will GSW play him to keep Shaun and Iggy fresh for the playoffs? If so, decent chance he'll produce a bit. You'll have to wait until Klay's gone for him to really step it up, though. Won't meet benchmarks for SG anytime soon. Wayne Selden - I can see him grab a starting spot in Memphis. He was a pretty good 3pt shooter in college (not a good FT shooter, though), and if you ignore the 3/21 3pt shooting with Memphis last year, there could be something here. Rooting for him. Will Barton - Always a bench player, but also always that guy who'll step right in when starters are injured and put up a string of top 30 games. Andrew Wiggins - Man, this guy is being over drafted and overrated. Yet, if you're looking at guys who could surpass the benchmark this season, he's one of them. Wilson Chandler - Starter in Denver and always been that smart pick I never made because I somewhat expected him to last another round. I like his chances at a very good season. Also dislike his chances at getting injured. Or finding a free spot for another tattoo. Jae Crowder - Probably, and I'm going out on a limb here, could be looking at a bench role in Cleveland. Doesn't matter, he'll contribute and he'll be good. Should up his FG a bit. Joe Ingles - He'll be really good this season. Was one of the best, if not best, players at open practice yesterday and seems to have added some to his game over the summer. Could be one of the leading scorers for Utah (as could I). Terrence Ross - He is what he is. Hezonja could be demanding some minutes this year, as well. Desperation add, but a good desperation add. James Johnson - Guy is so underrated, I'm listing him in every topic I've done so far. C.J. Miles - Starter at SF in Toronto, always been a good source of threes, and should see more minutes and open looks than he saw last season. Nice waiver wire pickup for those looking to fill a last spot. Cedi Osman - I know, I said I didn’t expect any rookies to surpass the positional benchmarks this season. But if the Cavs make another move, and trade Osman, he's a guy who has a chance to do so. Bojan Bogdanovic - Starter in Indiana. Should've been GRIII, but here we are. Bojan can shoot, and score. Not betting on his FG% ever getting to benchmark levels, though. I'ma sleep on him. Doug McDermott - He's a shooter and he chooses his spots. Just not sure if the Knicks are his spot. Could develop into a Korver type. Could also be seeing his last NBA contract as we speak. Dante Cunningham - Signed up to be their starter at SF. Playing with Boogie and Davis downlow and Holiday and Rondo being playmakers, expect a whole lot of open looks for Dante. I think he's one of the most interesting players currently flying under the radar. Davis Bertans - Pop loves him, and hates him. Minutes fluctuate as much as his focus on the defensive end. If he puts it together, he could be one of those deadly bench threats. Who don't rebound at all, but that’s for another topic. Maurice Harkless - Doesn't hit a lot of threes, but let’s not forget he's the same age as some rookies. His game is developing, and he could become the answer for the Blazers at SF. Too inconsistent, still. Denzel Valentine - FG was bad last season, but he came on over the last few months. Has the size, shot and skills to be a much better player than what he's shown so far. Sam Dekker - Gallo will miss some games this season, as well Griffin. Good chance Dekker will step right in. Kelly Oubre - Will start the season at SF, with Porter at PF and Morris possible behind bars, or at pre-occupied. Great shooter and strong player, could give opposing SF's some fits. Also love that he plays gritty defense. Jaylen Brown - Huge talent, but crowded Boston roster could make it hard to carve out a role on offense. Will get some good looks, but might not be able to hit those 1.4 threes a game. Taurean Prince - Didn’t show up in SL, but has the talent, size, and tools to be a swiss army knife. 1/1/1 with good percentages is attainable. Juan Hernangomez - I believe in this guy's talent. Should get a lot of open looks with Murray, Harris, Jokic and Milsapp on the team. Will he be able to get 24+ minutes a game? Julius Randle - In best shape of career, and even though he might not be a great match with Brook and Ball, he's still a great talent. Like mentioned before, I expect him to get moved to another team, but I also expect him to shoot a few more threes this season. Comparing his 0.23 3's per game to the PF average of 1.00 per game seems like he has a long way to go, but he'll also play a lot of C, might become eligible there as well. The average for C's has been 0.43 last season, which seems more realistic for Randle. He only started shooting more threes late in the season as well. Harrison Barnes - Just .01 below PF average for 3pm and right at PF average for FG%. I see him improving a bit, and because he barely puts up any peripheral stats, he'll be of less value, and thus under drafted, by many. Aaron Gordon - Didn’t you just list him with the guys who hurt both FG% and 3pm? Yup, but over the last few months of the season, he jumper to 50% FG and 0.9 3pm, with 1.7 3pm in April. He's got talent, and playing at his natural position will only enable him to put up better stats. Kelly Olynyk - Playing with Whiteside should help his game a bit, as he can now roam the perimeter a bit more. He should be a typical good FG/3pm guy. Not only saying that because he's white. Marquese Chriss - Still learning how to play the actual game, but has shown he can hit threes. Could improve his FG quite easily if he adds at least two or three post moves to repertoire, instead of doing everything in the spur of a moment. Game should slow down this year, for him. Lauri Markkanen - Dang, another rookie? Lauri has a chance to put up at least a three a game, but don't see him surpassing 45% FG as a rookie, let alone 47%. Good dynasty target, though. Henry Ellenson - Morris gone, so chance at more minutes. This was his calling card coming out of college. Just hasn’t been able to put it together, expect for some SL spurts. Some fun facts: Obviously Curry holds the record for most threes in a game (13), but he's also responsible for 8 out the top 20 games and 5 out of the top 7 games. Out of the top 20 games with threes atttempted, Curry is only responsible for 1 (10/19 threes). JR had a 10/22 game and Kobe once had a 6/21 game, Damon Stoudamire hit only 5/21 once. There have only been 6 players who've attempted 20 or more threes in a game. However, there have been 163 games in which a player attempted 15 or more threes. There have been 18 players who came off the bench to attempt 15 threes in a game. Donyell Marshall once hit 12/19 as a reserve, which was a record overall. Eric Gordon once came off the bench to shoot 3/16 threes. The Rockets still managed to win that game. One of the worst shooting nights, besides the ones mentioned before, belongs to Dennis Scott going 2/17 vs the Nets once. I think he was just warming up. Going at least 0/10 has been done 15 times in the history of the league. These players hit none out of either 10 or 11 attempts once - Ray Allen, Raja Bell, Trey Burke (who allowed this to happen?!), Steph (twice), BD, KD, Harden (suprise, suprise, three times), Korver, McCloud, Kemba and Antoine Walker (twice, another surprise). At the other side of that spectrum: There have only been 7 games in which a player attempted at least 8 threes, and hit all of them. Ben Gordon shot 9/9 twice, Sprewell did it once. Finley, Hornacek, Sam Perkins (salute!) and Steve Smith all once shot 8/8. 7/7 has been done 12 times in the history of the game. The Cavs are the only team to ever hit 25 threes in a game. They shot 25/46 in a win against Atlanta. The score was 135-130. The Hawks hit just 10 threes. There have been 43 games in which one of the teams hit at least 20 threes. 10 by GSW, 12 by Houston. 25 of those games were played within the last two seasons. Only three OT games among this selection. There have been 13 games in which one of the teams attempted 50+ threes. In 12 of those games, it was the Rockets, and one off them was by the Knicks. All these games were played in the 2016-2017 season. There are only 41 games in which a team attempted 45+ threes. Only one of those was played prior to 2000, by Dallas in 1996. Four of them were played between 2000 and 2010, and 36 since 2010. Here's the kicker: 25 out of 41 games were played this past season, 16 of them by the Rockets. In only 6/41 games it was the Warriors. Houston also recorded the worst shooting night among those 45+ attempt games - they hit 9/45 threes in a loss against the Clippers in 2015. Between 1985 and 1986 the Paceers had a string of 69 games in which they didn't hit a threepointer. The longest such streak over the past ddecade was three games by the Thunder in 2008. There has been no team to not hit a single three in a game last season. The last time this happened was when Miami failed to score a threepointer against Charlotte in 2016. They did attempt 9 of them in the win. Only 9 teams attempted less than 10 threes in a single game last season. Six of those games resulted ina loss for that team. in 2015-2016, there were 29 games in which a team attempted less than 10 threes. Twenty years ago, there were 290 such games. The 88-89 Kings and Knicks were the first teams to average over 10 3pt attempts per game in a season. FG: Only two players EVER shot 0/15 or worse. Tim Hardaway and Rondey McCray both had a 0/15 FG game. Tim had 2 pts and Rodney 4 pts in those games, all free throws, obviously. There have been only 18 games in which a team attempted 125 or more FG. Seven out of those 18 come from the Nuggets (and not only from the Paul Westhead era). Only five out of those 18 games resulted in a win for the team attempting at least 125 FG's. 11 games were actually overtime games, and in none of the 18 games the opponent attempted more than 124 FGs. All Non-Overtime games (7) are by the Paul Westhead Nuggets, except for two, a 80's GSW game and another 80's Nuggets game. None of the Paul Westhead games resulted in a win. The Nets and Nuggets are responsible for two of the worst scoring nights (regulation only). The Nets went 41/123 for 33.3% in a loss and a year later the Nuggets achieved a 41/126 (32.5%) game. In neither game the players shot more than 10 threes. In 2016 the Mavs played a game against the Grizzlies in which they had only 60 FGA, but had 31 3PA. They won the game 103-93. There have been 8 games in which one of the teams had less than 55 FGA. Only two out of those games were losses for the game with so few FGA. Such a game has only once since 2003 (2006, Orl). More reading: Why do you need so many three to win your league? Because there are no fours.
  4. 20 points
    Heard Rodgers might be out for the season
  5. 19 points
    Hey All, My thoughts on the RB waiver wire situation this week: Minnesota – The most compelling pickup of the week for me without question is Latavius Murray of the Vikings. Of the running backs who will find themselves thrust into additional snaps, Murray plays behind the best offensive line of the group, and the team’s philosophy has traditionally been ground and pound. Murray was signed to a three-year, $15 million contract in early March, making him one of the highest paid free agents of the offseason. The staff was clearly high on him prior to drafting Cook, so it would stand to reason that they would be comfortable with giving him early down work. Over his three-year career, Murray has averaged nearly 4.5 YPC, and is an adequate receiver. He has been criticized for being a largely upright-runner incapable of breaking tackles, but has a nose around the goal line and also possesses breakaway speed in the open field. Murray is likely to come off on third downs and passing situations in favor of Jerick McKinnon, but should be on the right side of at least a 65/35 split in total touches. Waiver bidding: Murray should be owned in all leagues and is worthy of a No.1 claim or 25-30% FAAB bid. New York – As a New York Giants fan, I wasn’t rooting for Paul Perkins to get hurt per se (even I’m not that spiteful), but I felt that his injury was actually a blessing in disguise for this team. Perkins had a handful of attempts last year that raised eyebrows, and management felt that he would be able to handle the full workload of being a true three-down back for the team upon entering the season. Sadly, the Giants woeful offensive line hasn’t been able to generate much in the way of lanes for Perkins to work with, and even when they are open, he fails to take advantage of them. It may seem like an odd statement, but I really wish that the team would have called more sweep plays, as Perkins lateral quickness could have really helped him in space to run around defenders. He crumples with first contact, and just was never able to get it going this season. Enter in Gallman. Against a fairly stout defensive front in Tampa Bay, he totaled 42 yards on the ground, and caught both of his targets for eight receiving yards and a touchdown. Gallman’s running style more fits what the coaching staff calls, as his bigger frame propels him forward to constantly pick up positive yardage, rather than being tackled in the backfield. He doesn’t have one particularly trait which stands out specifically, but his overall skillset is above-average at everything. Waiver bidding: Gallman should be owned in 10-team leagues or greater, and is worthy of a 10-15% FAAB bid. Seattle – It is a real shame that Carson went down with a major injury that will sideline him for the remainder of the season, because his presence at least brought some stability to Seattle. In his absence, owners will have to play the guessing game between the three-headed monster of Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise. Of all three backs, I would assume that Thomas Rawls would have the first chance to inherit early down carries, with Lacy coming in to spell him (perhaps around the goal line), and Prosise being on the field when the team plays from behind or on passing downs. From a health perspective, none of the remaining three options for the team have shown the ability to play through injuries or stay on the field for extended snaps, which creates a very confusing situation. To complicate matters even further, Seattle’s offensive line is atrocious, so this is very likely to be a “hot hand” approach. Waiver bidding: Both Rawls and Lacy should be owned in 12-team leagues or greater, and are worthy of a 10% FAAB bid. In PPR formats Prosise would be the favored option due to his receiving skills, and is worthy of a 10-15% bid. Green Bay – Thankfully, initial reports on Ty Montgomery sound optimistic on his long-term outlook, meaning that it would be a surprise if he missed more than a week of action, if that. He was already back at practice on Wednesday, and said that his ability to start would be completely dependent upon pain tolerance. If he starts I would seriously limit my expectations on his output, as one hit in the wrong area could force him out of action. Whether that happens on the first snap or the last is anyone’s guess, coupled with how he feels after the conclusion of the game and the adrenaline wears off. It would be smart for the team to give him a week of rest if possible. If Montgomery does miss time, it is also possible that Jamaal Williams plays, as he was also back on the practice field, and told reporters that he was “feeling good” about his chances to start. The odd note that both backs have working in their favor is that they sustained their injuries on Thursday, rather than Sunday. The added rest means that one or the other (or possibly both) will be active in this contest. In the unlikely event that they sit or experience setbacks, Aaron Jones would be the player to target. Waiver bidding: It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Packers opt for Montgomery to sit out the game on Sunday if he isn’t healthy enough, or is at any risk of making his injuries worse. Jamaal Williams is a Hail-Mary add in deeper formats, but is a one-week flier and handcuff at best. A 5% bid should land him, or Jones, should both players sit out. Baltimore – Similar to Seattle, this is a situation that is really lacking clarity. Going into the season, it was presumed that Danny Woodhead and Terrance West would split reps about 50/50, with Woodhead being a mid-tier RB2 in PPR formats. His Week 1 injury forced Buck Allen to take over the passing-down role, where he has shined, catching at least five passes in every game since. West has struggled behind a poor offensive line, which has led to Alex Collins being more involved the past two weeks. His reps have mainly occurred in the fourth quarter against teams who aren’t going out of their way to stop the run, so his YPC has been largely inflated. That said, he has posted identical lines in each of the past two contests, running for 82 yards on nine attempts. The major, well-publicized drawback to Collins is his propensity to put the ball on the ground – fumbles have plagued him going back to his college days at Arkansas. Ravens coach John Harbaugh has no tolerance for players that turn the ball over, so Collins has an exceptionally short leash. Of the players mentioned above, he would be my least targeted one, both due to his risk for getting benched, coupled with the presence of West/Allen and the eventual return of Woodhead. Waiver bidding: Collins is worth an addition in deeper formats (14-teams or larger) as a speculative addition, but owners should be aware of the innate risk that comes with adding him. A 5-10% bid is plenty to acquire him. Dallas – As a quick aside prior to the conclusion of the article, I did want to make owners aware that news has begun to swirl about a possible resolution in the Ezekiel Elliott case. Per Pro Football Talk, the NFL “is seeking a stay on the injunction which is allowing Elliott to continue playing while his suit against the league is litigated. The Fifth U.S. Court of Appeals in New Orleans heard oral arguments on Monday, and it sounds like they could issue a ruling this week. If the court reverses the injunction, Elliott’s suspension would begin immediately”. Long story short, it sounds like Alfred Morris or Darren McFadden could come into some playing time in the near future, should the court rule to overturn things. Regardless if you are an Elliott owner or not, I would strongly recommend taking a look at the waiver wire to see if either player is available. It is currently unclear which would be Elliott’s backup, and even beat writers appear split on how things would shake out. Some say that because Morris has been active, he would be the backup. Others think that DMC would be the choice, given that his skillset more closely mirrors Elliott, and the team has been resting him intentionally in case something like this happened. Waiver bidding: Should Morris or DMC be available, they need to be added as insurance in the event that Elliott is suspended. A 5% bid on either this week should land them – owners would be well advised to add them now rather than later. My pecking order at RB this week: 1. Latavius Murray 2. Wayne Gallman 3. Thomas Rawls 4. C.J. Prosise 5. Alfred Morris/Darren McFadden 6. Alex Collins 7. Jerick McKinnon 8. Eddie Lacy 9. Jamaal Williams 10. Aaron Jones
  6. 18 points
    Play in a real league where rosters and players lock at the start of a game.
  7. 16 points
  8. 16 points
    I am an adult and love playing video games and love that about myself
  9. 16 points
    I’m just gonna leave this right here for amusement:
  10. 16 points
    I wouldn’t trust McAdoo at all. Dude looks like he puts ketchup on his steak.
  11. 15 points
  12. 15 points
    Whats going on in here? Something happen last night?
  13. 15 points
    Oh, hai guise..... ETA - Check out Crabtee in the background. I think he drafted AC, also.
  14. 14 points
    I will never drop him. Ever. He will either carry me to the promised land or drag me under until water fills my lungs and I die a slow death. Team-MB's-Potential for LIFE.
  15. 14 points
    Coach heard the Derrick Henry rotoworld thread was stuck on 75 pages so released this "fake news"
  16. 14 points
  17. 14 points
  18. 14 points
    Tarik's touches... 1st down - 17 2nd down - 21 3rd down - 6 Pretty strange usage for a third down back.
  19. 13 points
    Live look at the Browns coaching staff
  20. 12 points
    Well you might be watching him on your bench while someone else watches warren in their lineup.
  21. 12 points
    Just finished binge watching all of "House" and "ER" over the weekend. Yes - I would be surprised if Powell played this week.
  22. 12 points
    If only all my projections worked like this.
  23. 12 points
  24. 12 points
  25. 12 points
    I'll give @DerrickHenrysCleats credit for actually showing up here though. Unlike burninglegs.
  26. 11 points
  27. 11 points
    This is an epic first post my friend.
  28. 11 points
  29. 11 points
    The Rotoworld Forum servers are listed as questionable today.
  30. 11 points
    Does anyone else get the feeling that these judges were waiting for waivers to process so they could add Alfred Morris as a FA?
  31. 11 points
    Doesn't play video games but plays fantasy games cos he's not a "man-child lol"..............ok
  32. 11 points
    Next time maybe they can include Bradford in the TD celebration...
  33. 11 points
  34. 11 points
    When Folk sees Aguayo in the unemployment line this week.
  35. 11 points
    I somewhat disagree. The guy with one less game over a whole fantasy season is like 55/56 as effective as the same player with one more game. One less game in championship week? That player is like 2/3 or 3/4 as effective. Clearly, it's not the same.
  36. 11 points
    If you take away the last 75 posts in this thread, the Quality Content per Page would be much higher.
  37. 11 points
    Stop. You beat your chest and failed. Berated those with any sort of doubt or realistic expectations. This is just coming back with your tail between your legs and trying to move the goal posts. This is 100% BS.
  38. 10 points
    If Murray is OUT. Henry owners
  39. 10 points
  40. 10 points
    Soooo...to sum up, there are three types of people in this thread right now.... VS VS
  41. 10 points
    Fortune favors the bold. Just start him and take the zero like a man.
  42. 10 points
  43. 10 points
    For those who bought Peterson Saints jerseys
  44. 10 points
  45. 10 points
    Posting again to get me off 666 posts. We need good vibes in here.
  46. 10 points
    Your post looks like it was outsourced to Pakistan for editing. Just lazy.
  47. 10 points
    He had so much hype last year that he seems to be a little undervalued this season. Move to F helped him, and another year in the league will also earn him a little more respect from the refs. After the AS break he ranked 34th among all forwards in rebounding. Out of that group, only KD (8.5 in 26.3mpg) Zach Randolph (8.1 in 24.8mpg), Alan Williams (9 in 22.6), Capela (9.4 in 25.8), Pau (7.6 in 23.9) and Vonleh (7.2 in 24.3) averaged more rebounds in comparable minutes. 30th among all forward in steals, with only Princce, Allen, Tucker, Ginobili averaging more in limited minutes. Basically he's 18th among forward who got more than 20 minutes a game in rebounding, 7th in steals per 36 among forwards with 20+ minutes a game. There's value there, especially considering the team he's been playing for and the fluctuating minutes and roles he's played. He's been putting up per 36 stats comparable to Larry Nance, who's 2 inches taller and 2 years older than him. Nance's role probably will decline this season, and RHJ's role will expand. The thing which worries me somewhat is the added firepower at SG/SF and Mzogov being a better rebounder than Lopez. Allen as well. So there are two factors which could work against RHJ's production statwise. However, those two factors don't outweigh the growth for him as a player, the experience of the Nets as a team and the gained respect as a top defender, in my book. Remember; he's just 22 years old. That's younger than Sindarius Thornwell and only 4 days older than Jordan Bell. There's about 5-6 players older than him in the 2017 draft. Now I don't expect him to average 17 points and 10 rebounds, but it's very reasonable to expect him to put up something like this: 12.5 pts on 46% fg, 0.25/1.2 3pt (21%), 3.7/4.8 FT (77%), 2 ORB/5.8 DRB (7.8 tot), 2.9 ast, 1.6 stl, 0.8 blk, 2 to, 2.2 PF. I understand these stats are quite special: a 11ppg, 1.5spg, 0.8bpg and 2.5apg season has only been done 7 times the past 3 seasons: Kawhi, Boogie (2x), Sap (2x), Green and Giannis. Only 25 times over past decade (Giannis, Boogie (3x), Gay, Granger, Draymond, James (5x), Kirilenko, Kawhi, Millsap (3x), Josh Smith (2x), Wade (4x) and Gerald Wallace (2x)). Now before you dismiss being part of this selection as totally unbelievable for RHJ, mind this: - RHJ's scoring output hovered around 10/game after the move to PF. And that's a smaller jump than he made during his rookie season. - His scoring efficiency increased almost MOM over the past year. The move to PF allowed him to play closer to the basket, which helps his game. - He's not a good three point shooter, I only slightly increased the amount of attempts he'd take in my model, and actually lowered his shooting percentage there, because I feel playing against PF's will take some of his energy, which often translates in worse midrange/longrange shooting. In my model he's only hitting .3 threepointers more than last year. - His FT% suffered a bit last season after moving to PF and during the second half of the season. Fatigue. And I think it's only natural for him to improve a bit there. Again, not a big jump. I DO expect him to shoot quite a bit more free throws. He's always been above average in earning trips to the line, and his attempts have been growing over the course of his career. - He's a really good rebounder, and I expect his averages to be somewhat like Thaddeus' output. His offensive rebounding has improved a lot since his rookie season, and playing PF will help him as well. - Now his assists. That's probably the hardest feat to achieve for him, and might have some people scratching their heads. However, the model I've used takes into account two factors: One - he's been improving as a passer since his first game, and always been a valuable playmaker. Over the last couple of months, as a PF, he's averaged close to 2.5 ast/game. Two - The loss of Brook Lopez as a passer from the post. Mozgov nor Allen posses this skill like Lopez did. RHJ will get some extra touches in this role. - Steals - he saw a dip last year as the season involved some transitions, and he struggled a bit more on defense. With improved reputation as a defender, an extra year under his belt, added strength and playing against PF's, I see him becoming one of the better sources of steals at the PF position, once again, much like Thaddeus Young has been. Had Thad been a better playmaker and better FT shooter, I think it would make a lot of sense to compare these two. - Blocks - Averaged 0.7 post all star break. Small step here, which makes sense, at the very least. - Turnovers - might be a big higher, since Lopez is gone and Mozgov/Allen wont distract post defenses as much. Added ballhandling in the post will also increase his TO's a bit, I've calculated a 33% increase over last year, which seems reasonable to me, as I only calculated 24% extra playing time. - Fouls: bit less than what he averaged after the all star break. One - because he'll be playing with better post defenders. Two - more respect from the refs. So, maybe I'm a bit too optimistic, but I don't think I've made unreasonable assumptions or unrealistic calculations. If RRHJ does indeed improve his playing time andstatistical output, I can see him enter the top60 this year.
  48. 10 points
  49. 9 points
    I made this meme of what it feels like to be a Watkins owner
  50. 9 points
    Looking to shore up my team and addd some steals, I started wondering how it could be that there are so few decent options when it comes to steals. Back when I started watching basketball (early 90's), you had a boatload of guards getting 2+ steals, and some forwards and even centers got more than two steals a game in those years. Recently it seems like it's a wonder if there's more than a handful of guys getting over 1.7 steals a game, so I decided to take a closer look at this stat, and how to it can help you decide who's winning your league. First off, let's see how steals have been trending over the years. Please excuse my, quite arbitrary, cut-off at 87-88. Just felt the stats alreeady had proven my point when I ccame across the 6th season in a row with 10+ guys averaging more than two steals a game. How many players averaged 2 steals per game, or more? 2016 - 2017: 3 2015 - 2016: 6 2014 - 2015: 4 2013 - 2014: 3 2012 - 2013: 4 2011 - 2012: 3 2010 - 2011: 3 2009 - 2010: 3 2008 - 2009: 2 2007 - 2008: 6 2006 - 2007: 7 2005 - 2006: 5 2004 - 2005: 5 2003 - 2004: 4 2002 - 2003: 6 2001 - 2002: 4 2000 - 2001: 7 1999 - 2000: 7 1998 - 1999: 13 1997 - 1998: 8 1996 - 1997: 9 1995 - 1996: 8 1994 - 1995: 7 1993 - 1994: 9 1992 - 1993: 10 1991 - 1992: 12 1990 - 1991: 15 1989 - 1990: 14 1988 - 1989: 15 1987 - 1988: 13 And what average topped the league? 2016 - 2017 Draymond Green at 2.03 2015 - 2016 Stephen Curry at 2.14 2014 - 2015 Kawhi Leonard at 2.31 2013 - 2014 Chris Paul at 2.48 2012 - 2013 Chris Paul at 2.41 2011 - 2012 Chris Paul at 2.53 2010 - 2011 Chris Paul at 2.35 2009 - 2010 Rajon Rondo at 2.33 2008 - 2009 Chris Paul at 2.77 2007 - 2008 Chris Paul at 2.71 2006 - 2007 Baron Davis at 2.14 2005 - 2006 Gerald Wallace at 2.51 2004 - 2005 Larry Hughes at 2.89 2003 - 2004 Baron Davis at 2.36 2002 - 2003 Allen Iverson at 2.74 2001 - 2002 Allen Iverson at 2.8 2000 - 2001 Allen Iverson at 2.51 1999 - 2000 Eddie Jones at 2.67 1998 - 1999 Kendall Gill at 2.68 1997 - 1998 Mookie Blaylock at 2.61 1996 - 1997 Mookie Blaylock at 2.72 1995 - 1996 Gary Payton at 2.85 1994 - 1995 Scottie Pippen at 2.94 1993 - 1994 Nate McMillan at 2.96 1992 - 1993 Michael Jordan at 2.83 1991 - 1992 John Stockton at 2.98 1990 - 1991 Alvin Robertson 3.04 1989 - 1990 Michael Jordan at 2.77 1988 - 1989 John Stockton 3.21 1987 - 1988 Michael Jordan 3.16 As you can see the league leading numbers for steals have been trending down the past three decades, as well as the amount of players getting 2+ steals per game. Imagine being able to cover the production of three average players in your first round by picking MJ (3.16). Laarry Hughes was a great value pick for that purpose in the past, and it was before I started playing fantasy basketball, but imagine being able to draft guys like Kendall Gill or McMillan in later rounds. Now let's take a look at more recent seasons - what are the trends we can find for draftable players? Let's assume your league has 12 teams and each team has 13 players rostered, and it's a 9-cat league. That's 156 players rostered. What's the average amount of steals these top 156 players got for each season? 2016 - 2017: 1.01595659 2015 - 2016: 1.050944391 2014 - 2015: 1.008824839 2013 - 2014: 1.020681214 2012 - 2013: 1.051369757 2011 - 2012: 1.017462945 2010 - 2011: 0.980205399 2009 - 2010: 0.998889545 2008 - 2009: 1.015690931 2007 - 2008: 1.013259367 2006 - 2007: 1.015035781 2005 - 2006: 0.99135125 2004 - 2005: 1.044857522 2003 - 2004: 1.077743157 That's funny, right? The average amount of assists for players, generelly, rostered by 12 team leagues has hovered right around 1 steal/game, with exteremely little deviation. It's becoming harder and harder to pick a couple of playeers who will help you win the steals category most weeks. In the top 156 players, there are 21 players who average over 1.5 steals per game. It's also no wonder why guys who get a good amount of steals nowadays are usually picked in the first three rounds. There's 8 guys averaging 1.5+ steals in the first round, alone. 2 in the 2nd round, but 4 in the third round. Which means, you can make some real good value picks when it comes to steals in the 3rd, maybe even fourth, if you're lucky, by covering other cats in earlier rounds. This year you'd expect there will be only about 6 guys available in rounds 4-13 who average over 1.5 steals, so unless you're willing to pick a specialist in your last few rounds, who potentially would hurt your overall production, it's best not to save picking a good thief to rounds 4-13. Some fun info which might come of use in your draft/league: Out of the top 30 players in 9-cat leagues, only KAT (0.73), Gobert (0.62) and Whiteside (0.73) aveerage under 0.8 steals per game. Jokic is right at 0.8. Klay, Love, Turner, McCollum, Marc Gasol, Isaiah, Dame all average under 1 steal per game, meaning you'll have to make up for that production with other players. Grabbing any two of these players during your first three rounds would probably mean you're punting steals. However: other teams will have a hard time putting a real dent in the steals category unless they pick a combo of Dray, Wall, CP, Butler, Steph, Kawhi, Russ, Giannis, PG or Harden in the first two rounds, basically teaming up two players for the production of three average guys in the steals cat. Now, outside of the top 30, you have a few guys like Thad (1.51), Covington (1.87), Ariza (1.84), Rubio (1.69) or even Drummond (1.53) who will all help you with steals, but hurt either your FG or FT. Out of these, I lovve Rubio as a real value pick. Great AST:TO ratio to boot. Thabo (1.48), Tony Allen (1.61), Tucker (1.46), are some good value steals guys who were available as free agents last season, in most leagues, and give you some indication of steals value you'd be able to get from waivers. At one point, and correct me if I'm wrong, Thabo was in the top 5 in both steals and threes last year. That's really good value for a stretch. I'm a huge fan of TJ McConell. He's a per minute beast and helped quite some teams win a few match ups last season. He's a good distributor, doesn't turn the ball over an awful lot and got his owners 1.68 steals a game. He's pretty much roadblocked with Fultz and Simons on the Sixers this year, though. Here's hoping for a trade - the guy deserves to start, or at least get a very decent amount of minutes each night. Out of position steals: With steals usually a cat generated by point guards, these players will give you steals from other positions: Dray, Butler, Cov, Ariza, Kawhi, Giannis, Allen, PG, Drummond, Thad, Harden, Gay, Winslow. Watch that last name if you want to pick up some sneaky steals at the end of your draft. Again, just like Ariza, Cov, Thad and Drummond, be prepared to take a hit in your percentages. Last, but not least (well maybe least), here's my sleeper picks for steals this year: T.J. McConnell - I knwo he won't be traded, but I'm hoping for at least 24 minutes a game, with Fultz playing off-guard some as well. It will bring down his numbers a bit, but I ccan see him get close to 1.7 stl/game again. Tony Allen - I knwo, he's old as hell, and the Pels just signed Dante. But, Tony iss still a very good defender, and could be the motor of a much improved team on defense. He's your desperation waiver pick after your first week's loss. Nerlens Noel - His steals + blocks combination had most of us reaching for him after his rookie season. He's been disappointing ever since, but could be in for a big bounce back season in a contract year, with little to no competition for minutes at C in Dallas. Delon Wright - Not a huge fan, but Kyle Lowry tends to miss a few games here and there. Cory Joseph is gone, so there's minutes for Delon, who averaged a steal in just 16.5 minutes/game last season. Kris Dunn - Everyone's favorite bust is now the leading candidate to start at PG in Chicago. His offense was non-excistent, but he's always been a great defender. A steal in 17 minutes could improve to a top 5 ranking in starters' minutes. Ian Mahinmi - Much like Nene, this big center somehow avaerages close to 1 block and 1 steal per game when he gets close to 20 minutes a game. Which is a realistic goal in Washington this year. Marcus Smart - Should be drafted in all leagues and will see a bigger role with Bradley gone. Expect his 1.6 steals/game to jump up to 1.8-2 steals a game. Ricky Rubio - Often picked in the middle rounds, and I believe it's great value there. He's a life-saver at this stage if you lack ast or steals. Averages 2.1 for his career, which would lead the league in the past two seasons. PJ Tucker - They guy CP will love playing with. Bring grit and defense to the Rockets front court, and should average close to 1.5 steals in Houston's system. Joe Ingles - An increased role in Utah will see Ingles average over 1.5 steals per game (last year he averaged 1.5 as a starter). Rondae Hollis Jefferson - When he averaged 1.3 as a rookie, we expected him to be among league leaders as a sophomore. He was among the best defenders at SF, but is now making the move to PF. If he can climb back towards 1.5 stl/game it would be fantastic value at PF. Khris Middleton - Averaged 1.7 before getting injured, and saw his averages climb every season. Had to adjust a bit coming back, but should hover around 1.7 again this year. D'Angelo Russell - 1,2 and 1,4 in first two seasons, should see that number climb to 1,6 (makes sense, right) in BK with an expended role. Taurean Prince - I think he led summer league in steals last year with prettty convincing numbers. He's got good size and quick feet, and should see a whole lot more minutes this year. Averaged 1.4 as a starter in 31 minutes a game. Justise Winslow - If you can ignore the MKG comparisons, pick Winslow for his increasing amount of steals and hope for further imrpovement in other cats. 1.4 a game and almost 2/game in November. Gary Harris - Should be averaging more steals than he currently does. Would help to have a better defender at PG next to him - Murray or Mudiay don't help much there. Hoping for 1.6 a game this year. Steven Adams - A sneaky 1.1 steals from your center. Andre Roberson - Has these strings of games where he pours in steals, or blocks, or both. Could see a better chance to focus solely on defense with PG on the wing this year. Kelly Oubre - averaged 1.4 as a starter, and should get more chances to play this year. Has a whole lot of talent, and Morris will be suspended for a while (Porter to PF). Willie Cauley Stein & Jusuf Nurkic - 1.2+ steals from your C position and should get more with increased roles. Josh Richardson - Got 1.7/game as a starting SG. Has to deal with quite some competition at the wing, but I have good hopes he'll get his share of minutes. TJ Warren - So-called one-dimensional player got almost 2 steals a game in the first two months of the season. Also chipped in almost a three with great percentages and good volumes. Underrated player and Corey Brewer Josh Jackson won't kill his minutes yet. Might add some content (average steals per position) in the next few days - any thoughts are welcome too.