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Showing most liked content on 02/11/2018 in all areas

  1. 6 points
    Ask and you shall receive. Here's an interesting write-up I recently came across regarding some potential pitfalls in Hoskins' profile. I honestly had no idea he struggled so mightily vs the off-speed stuff...particularly with the changeup + curve:
  2. 5 points
  3. 4 points
    He was going in like the first 5 rounds last year before the injury. Now he’s going around the 10th. Nothing has really changed. Seems like he’s being under valued
  4. 4 points
    Unrealistic . Do you really expect Luke Kornet to post a zero assist dud ? Adding 8-9 assists to your projection makes it more realistic. Also I think the minutes are low. Luke Kornet will make the case for 42-43 minutes going foreward.
  5. 4 points
    I hope he get the triple dd.. I traded Rondo + Portis yesterday for Lou Williams and the league vetoed the trade. I just texted the group with a picture of rondo flexing with a caption of Mess around & get a triple double...
  6. 3 points
    He's an interesting, semi-post-hype guy for me this year. 24-yr old is a no doubt member of the Oak rotation to begin the year. Finished last year out incredibly well, rattling off four quality starts in his last five with a 1.54 ERA and a 26:6 K:BB ratio during that span. Overall finishing at 43 IP, 36 HA, 29K/8BB for a 3.14 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Mengden was terrific against righties at the big-league level in his seven starts last year, holding them to a .182/.253/.307 slash line. There's no extraordinary ceiling here, but I can see I nice back-of-the-staff guy for fantasy--esp in deeper formats. Noticed this in the fangraphs prospect roll-out this week, was from a post-prospect article (by Longenhagen): "Had Mengden not missed much of last year with a stress reaction in his rib cage, he may have been hotly pursued by playoff teams. He can really pitch. His fastball velocity was down a tick, but it’s still an average offering, and Mengden has above-average command of it. He attacks hitters in on their hands early and then works the slider down and to his glove side against both lefties and righties while supplementing it with a dying changeup against lefties. The next time through the order, he hits you with a heavier dose of breaking balls, including a rainbow curveball, which is slow but has enough depth to compete in the zone if a hitter is waiting to ambush one. Everything is average or a tick above. If he’s healthy, he looks like a league-average starter, comfortably so if his 2016 velocity returns." Also typically sports a killer mustache fwiw...
  7. 3 points
  8. 3 points
    That said, the Knicks are shorthanded in the front court and if Kornet can score a role of 20MPG he is useful in my books. Willy was just under 20MPG last year and he was a good end of the bench fantasy player in the closing stretch. The Knicks should be playing for next year now and I think you'll see the transition soon. If Kornet doesn't get a lot of burn today, it wouldn't be the worst idea to hang on until after the all-star break because the team would have had ample time to work him in by then.
  9. 3 points
    You should actually bet that then.
  10. 3 points
    All sports are super stressed and carful with concussions these days ( and rightfully so) Australian football league have a rule where if you get concussed you are out the next week unless you miraculously pass the billion point concussion test over a couple days .. or your name is joel selwood (aussie lads will understand that one )
  11. 3 points
    I feel extremely sorry for anyone who didn't scoop this beast.
  12. 3 points
  13. 3 points
    They came back from down 28 in this game, so yeah, I think it did work out okay for them.
  14. 2 points
  15. 2 points
    KL Chouinard @KLChouinard Bud: "I think we'll stick with these starters."
  16. 2 points
    Let the others pass over him.
  17. 2 points
    Not an update on Sato's status but I did come across this. Wow! Congrats!
  18. 2 points
  19. 2 points
    I imagine we’re gonna hear all about how bad his elbow hurts after this performance.
  20. 2 points
    Huh? Their PO sched is part of the reason why I had him included in a packaged deal with Lou. 4-4-3 ain't bad at all.
  21. 2 points
    Right. And could you imagine the Yankees signing everyone under the sun and then landing Carlos Correa, etc? That simply wouldn’t be sustainable. I think the only solution is to instill a lottery system. Maybe even more throughly than the current NBA lottery.
  22. 2 points
    Easy to implement, sure. The problem is that even assuming it has its intended effect and every team tries hard to win throughout the season, there are still going to be teams that come up short. Now they get a much worse draft pick. Of course that doesn't guarantee they'll do worse -- Mike Trout was a 25th overall pick -- but it's definitely harder to rebuild when you're not getting early picks, and without a salary cap, I see the small market teams and even mid-market teams that just have a bad run of luck having a really hard time digging out.
  23. 2 points
    I definitely think he still has the potential to bounce back to being a 20/20 guy again. He's only 1 injury riddled year removed from doing this in 2016. The HRs I don't see being an issue at all. The 20SB though would be what starts to dwindle this year. I'd draft him as a 20HR/15SB player, and if he gets those 5 extra SB's, that's great.
  24. 2 points
    Well said. As an official Patriot hater even I have to admit that everyone does it. The Patriots just happen to have a bigger target on their back. If your not cheating your not trying.
  25. 2 points
    That was a good piece above and causes one to rethink the hype train. Mistake and straight 4 seam FB (ala Smardzijia sp?) hitters don't normally deserve 3rd round consideration especially in a weekly league. He's being kept in both my leagues so I won't be owning him, but I will follow his progress. I like his hard/medium contact numbers, and LD/FB %s but he is also almost a 50% pull hitter which is Dozier territory.
  26. 2 points
    Wow that's a damn good piece of writing! I gotta admit, I pooped my pants a little reading it. I mean, Hoskins can adjust to this....right? You can't have a .900 OPS through 1900 PA in the minors and not make adjustments. Why aren't the pitchers just throwing him 100% off-speed stuff if he sucks so bad?
  27. 2 points
    Yahoo has him at #231. 20th round for Haniger? I'm all in.
  28. 2 points
  29. 2 points
    Rotoworld keeps insulting this man, writing him up as a 'top 50 option' in the latest two blurbs. Top 50? He's 15th on a total game basis and 22nd on a per-game basis. He's also been 3rd this week. What are they smoking?
  30. 2 points
    If he stays healthy and doesn't self destruct off the field he's a lock for the 53 this year.
  31. 2 points
    Because Allen was getting abused by AD and because the Dinwiddie/Crabbe/Harris combo was clicking? Not to mention they might've wanted D'Lo to get some rest as he's still on an injury recovery plan and he committed a boneheaded turnover late in the 4th They are competitive from game to game despite probably having the maybe the least talented roster in the league - that speaks volumes to Atkinson's systems and player development (all of this is coming from a Nets fan who watched the game)
  32. 2 points
  33. 2 points
    Had 11.9 K/9 after moving to the NL. That would have ranked 4th in MLB in 2017. Fastball velocity went up last year to 94 mph. Not sure what's not to like, especially from a fantasy perspective.
  34. 2 points
    Wha . . . ? He's been healthy all season and has had zero problems with his knees or hands. He's played in every game so far except when he had the squirts. He was never DTD. He was shut down because the Grizzlies were attempting to trade him and didn't want him to get injured while they were exploring trade options.
  35. 2 points
    LeBron James does not make teammates better contrary to popular belief. He hogs the ball and turns everybody else into spot up shooters. IT2 should be more himself now that he is freed from being forced to be something he wasn't.
  36. 2 points
    Lol... Atkinson is a bad coach just because he doesn't bring in your fantasy player? He's done a phenomenal job developing players and staying competitive despite not having any high picks or big FAs
  37. 2 points
    LOL what? What a simplistic way of looking at the game without watching. Let me just remind that these coaches could not care less about fantasy stats. It was really clear watching the game that Allen couldn't guard AD. That's not his fault. Not a lot of people in the world can. Acy is quicker and the coaching staff thought maybe he could disrupt him more. That's why he played 40 minutes and Allen and Okafor played 22 combined. And more importantly, it's the Nets dude. They're a bad team so of course they lost. Coming down from 28 is impressive regardless.
  38. 2 points
    Damn rondo.... of course he goes off when I drop him in majority of my leagues.
  39. 2 points
    Nets have one of the worst coaches. Doesn't play DLO for entire first OT and now brings him in.
  40. 2 points
    Want to place a wager on that ?
  41. 2 points
    In December I got Sabonis as an offer for him. I told the guy I would only sell him for players like Aaron Gordon or better. He laughed. Yesterday I got the same offer from him. #csb
  42. 2 points
    tom brady was a sixth round pick that was projected as a skinny gankly looking qb with limited arm strength. projected as a project ,career backup type.....and thats exactly what he would have been had not drew bledsoe been hurt. ..........tony romo would have been the same, again too bad for bledsoe.......dak presscott maybe the same at the expense of tony romo......all it takes is opportunity for someone to make the most of their talent.......usually it is talent that has the opportunity when drafted......but sometimes chance just takes over to produce fate......take it anyway you want, because anything can happen in any given circumstance.
  43. 2 points
    He’s really not a tough hold at all unless you’re in an extremely shallow league or one with a lot of inactive teams in which case strategy probably isn’t as important as health. He’s a top 100 player who despite his dud last night generally puts up solid lines. If you’re relying on him, a guy who was basically drafted in 0 fantasy leagues, as one of your key guys that’s a problem in the first place either because you lost half your team to injury or drafted really badly in the first place. I am a little surprised the Hawks are still playing their irrelevant guys so much but you gotta think it’s much less likely for him to hit the rookie wall Bc of this. Think about all the rookies in past years who put up solid # in the fantasy playoffs on bottom 10 teams who start to rest their vets. I see Collins as a guy who you can use end of your bench as a serviceable fill in until that part of the season happens. The benefit is that you can actually hold him without worrying about someone else grabbing him like you would with other young guys who aren’t producing enough yet. I have him in Keeper and a competitive 12 team redraft and have never thought once about dropping him.
  44. 2 points
    @garlando and @taobball need to join forces and write the most outstanding baseball analytics articles ever. There was a guy around these parts a few years ago that had fantastic writeups on pitchers, but i forget his name. I am glad some guys have grabbed the torch!
  45. 2 points
    Nomar Mazara is a guy that I’ve seen some post-hype sleeper talk so I figured I would do a deep dive and see if there’s anything I can see on him that would lead me to project that he could break out in 2018. Going back to 2017, Mazara slashed .253/.323/.422 with 20 HRs and 2 SBs in 616 PAs. That line was supported by an 8.9 BB% and a 20.6 K% as well as a .293 BAPIP. All told he was worth a below average 92 wRC+. He is still just 22 though, and many of his peers in the same year of berth are still in the minors whereas Mazara now has 2 years of MLB experience. Let’s dig deeper and see what Mazara’s numbers look like underneath the hood. Looking at his batted ball data, it’s easy to see that Mazara has largely been fairly groundball oriented in terms of batted ball contact. In 2017, he did cut into that high groundball rate some lowering it from 48.9% to 46.5%. The result was that he hit a lot more flyballs and upped his flyball rate from 29.7% to 34.2%. That’s a huge gain and is really encouraging for his power upside. The hope is that he continues to up his Fly-ball rate in the future to try and tap into more of his power upside (MLB.com prospect watch in 2015 had his power grade at 65). The slight drop in Mazara’s BAPIP may be explained by a slight decline in line-drive rate as it fell to 19.3% from 21.4%. Note that line-drives are the best-batted ball outcome in terms of likelihood of not being turned into an out. So if that line-drive rate rises again in 2018, I think you can expect a rise in his BAPIP and therefore average. What really does help his BAPIP is that Mazara uses all fields (35.3 Pull%, 38.8 Cent%, and 25.8 Oppo%) which makes him a guy that’s tougher to take advantage of utilizing shifts. Interestingly, that 38.8 centerfield contact% is one of the higher rates in baseball, overall ranking 14th highest. That high of a rate is good and bad in my opinion, it somewhat limits his power as his fly-balls going out to CF now have to go out to the deepest parts of the ballpark for HRs, but it also tells me that he’s on time a lot at the plate. I personally think he should look to turn on more pitches and push that Pull% closer to around 40% which would help him make more of his hard contact fly-balls. Speaking of hard contact, Mazara posted a 32.6% hard contact rate last season, which is significantly up from 2016 when he posted a 28.7% rate. That 32.6% hard contact rate ranked in a tie for 169th in baseball among those with at least 250 PAs with Jayson Werth, Brandon Crawford, and Josh Bell. That’s a decent but not great rate but is ahead of names like Javier Baez, Mike Moustakas, and Adam Duvall. That 32.6% hard contact rate is supported by an above average 88.6 MPH average exit velocity (MLB average is 87.32) which ranks in a tie for 106th in baseball with DJ Lemahieu, Buster Posey, Dexter Fowler, Trey Mancini, and Justin Upton. That ranks ahead of names like Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, and Anthony Rizzo. This shows that he can really sting the ball, he just needs to make adjustments to maximize the potential that comes with hitting the ball that hard. Note that Mazara’s soft contact% is kinda high at 20.9%, and that ranked in a tie for 76th worst in baseball among those with at least 250 PAs with Mark Trumbo, Ender Inciarte, and Tommy Joseph which isn’t ideal company (two struggling power hitters and a slap hitter). Now a big cause of that soft contact rate is his abysmal skills when hitting against left-handed hitters which held Mazara to a .228/.286/.317 that was worth a terrible 57 wRC+. Against lefties, Mazara posted a 29% soft contact rate and a 25.8% hard contact rate. Compared to his marks against righties, 18.7% soft contact rate and 34.4% hard contact rate, you can see there’s a big problem here. Mazara’s groundball rate also spikes to 60.2% against lefties which is brutal, especially considering that Mazara isn’t fast so those groundballs are highly likely to be turned into outs. The only positive I can see about Mazara’s struggles against lefties is that his 22.6 K% isn’t all that different from his 20.1 K% against righties. At this point, he has a ton to work on against lefties and that really dampens my excitement on him as a post-hype sleeper sort of guy. I should also point out, that he hasn’t exactly dominated right-handed pitching either (like Jake Lamb who has platoon issues but hits righties well enough to live with the platoon issues) as he posted just a .260/.333/.452 line that was worth a 102 wRC+. One last thing I want to point out before I dive into the plate discipline numbers is that Mazara only had 1 month that rated as at least average or better with a 147 wRC+ month of May. The rest of the months were as follows: 69 wRC+ in March/April, 77 wRC+ in June, 80 wRC+ in July, 98 wRC+ in August, and 75 wRC+ in September/October. That’s a little scary! Let’s take a look at Nomar Mazara’s plate discipline numbers: His out-of-zone swing% was 32.9% MLB average is 30% His zone swing % was 65.4% MLB average is 65% His overall swing % was 46.1% MLB average is 46% His out-of-zone contact % was 62.8% MLB average is 66% His zone contact% was 85.1% MLB average is 87% His overall contact rate was 75.7% MLB average is 80% His % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone was 40.7% MLB average is 45% His swinging-strike% was 11.1% MLB average is 9.5% As you can see, Mazara is willing to open up his strike zone more than MLB average and that’s a little concerning considering he makes contact on pitches outside the zone 3.2% worse than average. Good news is that he’s league average on pitches in the zone which tells me he does have a pretty good eye at the plate and he’s not being overly aggressive. Another thing about his out-of-zone swing% is that I noticed that when looking at his pitch type splits, that Curveballs and Sliders have been a problem for him and I’m guessing that pitchers are getting him to expand his zone on breaking balls. His far below average % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone shows that teams weren’t giving him too much to hit so he needs to learn to lay off that garbage and wait for more pitches inside the strike-zone that hopefully, he can drive. His overall contact rates are below average across the board, but he was roughly league average last year (80.7% overall contact rate in 2016) so I’m betting that he bounces back somewhat and perhaps we see an improvement in his K% and batting average in 2018. Overall, he’s still a work in progress underneath the hood, but he’s shown he’s not being overmatched thus far. Adjustments need to be made though! Overall, I see a hitter that has some pretty big flaws, but also some pretty darn good skills. He’s not a guy I’m particularly looking to buy in 2018, especially at his current ADP (NFBC ADP of 160) as I think there are better values in the same range and after. A big problem for me personally is I don’t like that he doesn’t add any value on the bases, especially at an OF position (which is one of the most common places to find SBs) and that pressures team construction somewhat. He also likely isn’t to be a big asset in BA/OBP with his lefty platoon issues and HRs so you’re kinda buying a meh asset IMO. Now, I’m not saying he isn’t a guy that can provide value He is likely to continue to make gains in flyball% which should help tap into his power more and I think it’s easy to project 20-25 HRs. I think his contact rates will bounce back some and think there’s some to gain to be had in batting average. He also will hit in the middle of the Rangers lineup and is in a great position to repeat his 100+ RBI season from last year. For 2018, I will project a line of .263/.333 with 24 HRs and 1 SB.
  46. 2 points
    like usual never henrys fault
  47. 2 points
    Gregory Polanco is coming off a disappointing 2017 season where he hit .251/.305/.391 with 11 HRs and 8 SBs, all good for a sub-par 81 wRC+. That season placed Polanco as the 123rd ranked OFer on the ESPN player rater, which is especially rough for a lot of people as he had an ADP of 59 on ESPN last year. I want to point out that it’s clear to me that Polanco was playing injured in 2017, and I’ll show why throughout, but let’s start to dig in deeper. First, Polanco posted a career-low BB% of 6.6% and a career-best K% of 14.6%. In theory, that looks pretty good but a deeper look at his plate discipline numbers will show why he cut into his K% by 5.7%. His BAPIP tied a career low at .272, which is far from his full-season marks of .308 in 2015 and .291 in 2016. In theory that would make him look like a bounce-back candidate (I do think he’s a bounce-back candidate) but a look at his plate discipline numbers (and his batted ball data) will paint the full picture. When looking at his batted ball data, the encouraging part is that he was able to maintain his increased launch angle and flyball rate (34.9% in 2015, 37.1% in 2016, 37.5% in 2017) which was/is in predicting a power breakout. Unfortunately, he did lose some line-drives as his LD% fell 3.7% to 20.3%. Consequently, his groundball rate went up to 42.2% and that may have impacted his BAPIP a bit since groundballs are more likely to be turned into outs than line-drives. Polanco also started using the opposite way more a bit more and went up the middle with his contact slightly more as well, ultimately cutting into his pull% by 5.1% (overall 44.1 pull% in 2017). My guess is it was a result of adjusting to injury which is really shown when we look at his hard contact%. Polanco’s Hard Contact% fell from 35.7% to 25.9%. That is a massive change year over year, especially for an in his prime player, and I think that’s a great example of Polanco playing injured. That’s drop in power is also shown when looking at average exit velocity, in 2016 Polanco had an above-average 89.6 MPH avg exit velocity, and it fell to a below average 86.38 MPH in 2017 (MLB average is 87.32 MPH). Polanco is a 6 foot 5, 235 lbs player who had a 35.7% Hard contact% in 2016, it’s easy to suggest that the 35.7% is more real than the 25.9%. For reference, a 35.7% Hard Contact rate would have ranked in a tie for 73rd in the majors (his 25.9% ranked 199th) with Mookie Betts, Daniel Murphy, and Kyle Seager which is pretty decent company and lends itself to suggest he has 25 HR upside. I also want to point out that Polanco posted a career-worst 22.8% Soft Contact rate last season which tied with Alcides Escobar for 19th worst in the majors. This is another way to show how Polanco was truly playing through injury last season, he’s not that bad of a hitter! Polanco also continues to struggle against lefty pitchers as his K% against them was a full 10.6% worse, and that's pretty much in line with his career marks. Let’s take a look at his plate discipline numbers: His out-of-zone swing% was 34.4% MLB average is 30%His zone swing % was 70.5% MLB average is 65%His overall swing % was 49.8% MLB average is 46%His out-of-zone contact % was 67.1% MLB average is 66%His zone contact% was 91.8% MLB average is 87%His overall contact rate was 82.1% MLB average is 80%His % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone was 42.8% MLB average is 45%His swinging-strike% was 8.9% MLB average is 9.5% As you can see, Polanco was a pretty aggressive hitter in 2017 (which explains the career-low BB rate) and he made contact at a better than average rate across the board. The negative side is that Polanco's out-of-zone swing% rose 3.4% meaning he expanded his strike-zone more often in 2017. Add in slight increases in his Zone swing%, as well as his contact rates in both inside and outside the zone, and you see a guy who was less selective in 2017 and perhaps pressing a little bit. It's not far at all from his norms, but I really think tightening his strike-zone again and waiting for his pitch more in 2018 could help Polanco unlock a new level at the plate when combined with better health and the higher launch angle. Here's a look at his Pitch type splits from 2017 compared to 2016 and 2015 using wRC+ for simplicity: 2015 2016 2017 Fourseam: 107 122 103 Sinker: 111 182 155 Slider: 5 41 78 Curveball: 171 57 65 Changeup: 142 219 47 Cutter: 62 59 13 The figures may look all over the map, and they are because of BAPIP (especially the 2015 curveball) but here are my takeaways. He can handle the FB well and actually had the lowest whiff rate on them of his career in 2017.The sinker is the pitch he likes the most. Slider took a step back in terms of whiffs in 2017, but his chase rate against them was a career-worst so maybe that's the pitch opposing pitchers were getting him to expand the zone on. If he can get his slider contact rate to around the 2016 mark of 76.1%, his game will likely take off. He's really improved against curveballs, actually posting a career-best 12.5% Whiff rate in 2017. Changeups were an odd struggle for him in 2017 as he posted a career-worst whiff rate against them (23.3% in 2017, was 6.3% in 2016, 10.3% in 2015) so I'm betting on some sort of bounce-back against them with better health. And finally the cutter which he posted the best whiff rate against in his career at 13.2%. Overall, the last two years, he's improved his whiff rates against all pitches and at some point, assuming good health, you have to think there's some sort of breakout. Finally, I want to talk about his speed. Polanco was 8 for 9 in SB attempts in 2017 which shows he's still fast and capable. He did this while dealing with Hamstring issues throughout the year too. There is 20 SB upside here I think! Overall, I see a guy who does a lot of things well, he makes contact at an above average rate, he has added loft in his swing to hit more flyballs, he has shown in the past to impact the ball at a high level and produce above-average power metrics, he has good wheels and is capable is stealing bases with efficiency, and he's still just 26 years old and in his prime. It all comes down to his health imo, and his ability to both stay on the field and not have to fight through nagging injuries. At his current ADP (NFBC has him at 164) I think he could be a value pick if he stays healthy. Compared to last year, his ADP has fallen and his floor is a lot less painful to take on at that price, and that makes reaching for his ceiling worth it imo. For 2018, assuming pretty good health, I will project .267/.331 with 23 HRs and 17 SBs.
  48. 1 point
    For all the boys aware of nice Gary, last night was more like another Aussie gem.
  49. 1 point
    Rizzo actually switched from a first baseman's glove to an infielder's glove those 10 times he got credited by MLB as having "appeared" as a second baseman. The switch of gloves, not the switch in physical positioning for certain batters while accompanying it, constituted a switch in positions during those particular defensive shifts as defined by MLB somehow. Of course he switched back to 1B right after that particular batter. They need to change MLB's definition of "appearances" at a position to "switching then staying there for the rest of the game" or something. As for now don't try to understand it. It hurts your head. It isn't as bad yet as what constitutes a reception in football -- nothing can be remotely that bad -- but it is getting close to it with these defensive shifts and who is "officially" covering what bag during any given "shift" in baseball.
  50. 1 point
    His power is no fluke. He's joined the school of Turner and Murphy et al. and joined the ranks of the pulled Fly-Ball/Launch Angle crowd. I'm expecting him to stay in the 25+ range as long as he's getting 600 ABs. In fact I think he could push his totals into the 30+ range with some good fortune.