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Showing content with the highest reputation on 04/23/2018 in all areas

  1. 10 points
    OPS, wOBA, wRC+, etc. are not helpful when checking your standings but they are predictors of who is for real and who is not. In this case Kingery vs Franco. RBIs and AVG are good, they help us win fantasy games, but they are also volatile to small sample size. For instance, AVG doesn't stabilize until 910 AB. whereas OBP (460), SLG (320), ISO (160) stabilize in half or less time. So it is essentially not indicative of anything until there are multiple season consistency -- even then it's hard to judge based on players adapting. Kingery is 35th in the majors in avg exit velocity. He is absolutely scorching the ball. This is higher than Hanley, Mookie, Ozuna, Rizzo, Trout, etc. If you want to look at RBI, best run and pick up/trade for Jed Lowrie, Preston Tucker, and Denard Span. They are top 20 hitters in the MLB. In fact, Preston Tucker is beating Trout in RBIs right now -- I think a one-for-one trade of the two would go over real well. Past performance is not indicative to future performance, especially with RBI. Give up on Kingery at your own peril.
  2. 7 points
    Go Farquhar. Chicago White Sox‏Verified account @whitesox ago The Chicago White Sox released the following update on the condition of White Sox pitcher Danny Farquhar, currently a patient at RUSH University Medical Center after suffering a brain hemorrhage and ruptured aneurysm during the team’s game in Chicago Friday night: Get well, Danny. May Almighty God bless you and your family during this difficult time. Pardon me for getting off-topic from the daily games subject for a bit. Never know the curve life may throw at you.
  3. 6 points
    Man is he impressing me. He's obviously going to regress from what he's currently doing, but he's always had that top-30 upside. Some of his numbers really excite me (of course, most pitchers with a 1.23 ERA and a no hitter through 5 starts will have exciting numbers). Two notes: - K% of 23.1%. Wasn't above 21% as a rookie or sophomore. Only 26 pitchers with 150+ ip last year had a k% of at least 23% last year. None had lower than a 8.69 k/9. Expect a rise in k's if Manaea continues this @papasmurf - Monster fastball numbers. So @brockpapersizer you want to know about his fastball? It was 93.3 mph in 2016, 92.2 mph last year, and 91.1 mph this year. Yikes, right? Well actually, he's thrown 256 fastballs this year (roughly same % of pitch mix as prior years, just 2% less usage). His whiffs per swing and overall swinging strike % on his fastballs are WAY down. But, his line drive % on fastball is way down, ground balls way up. Translation: more weak contact. In fact, his fastball ISO this year if currently .137. It was .150 last year, .206 in 2016. Yes, hitters are hitting his fastball with less power as it has decreased in speed. To be honest, I don't know why. Maybe someone who dives deeper into the analytics portion than myself can tell. But, statistically his fastball is becoming better as it gets slower. Another note on the fastball: out of his 58 career starts, his fastball overall has a negative rating. This year, it has been a positive rating in 4 of 5 starts. In fact, 3 of his 5 highest single game fastball grades of his young career have come from this year. His slider and change-up have been fantastic. He spots them so, so well. I was high on him last year after a hot stretch, and I'm high on him this year. Will he burn me twice? Very possible. He'll definitely regress, but I'll try again this year and call him a top 30 starter ROS. If his fastball is even an even valued pitch, to go along with his fantastic slider/change combo, he should easily post sp3 numbers.
  4. 6 points
    Still super early, but Mitch Haniger is looking like a stud and I could make the case that he’s a likely entrant to the upper echelon of OFers in the game fantasy wise and real life (currently tied for 12th in WAR). He’s currently slashing .314/.390/.671 with 7 HRs and 1 SB in 82 PAs. That line is supported by a strong 11% BB rate and a very solid 20.7% K rate. The K rate is supported by a 10.1% swinging-strike rate which would be slightly above-average as the MLB average last year was 10.5%. That start so far has been worth a 185 wRC+ which ranks 11th overall in the majors at the moment, and 6th among OFers. Now the question is will this sort of production continue? I am here to tell you yes and here is why! Taking a look at his batted ball numbers, I’m really digging his launch angle and how often he makes airborne contact. He’s currently hitting fewer groundballs this year compared to last (down to 34.5 from 44% last year) and hitting more of both line-drives (up to 21.8% this year from 19.3% last year) and fly-balls (up to 43.6% this year from 36.7% last year). More line-drives, in theory, should help his BAPIP as it’s the form of contact that has the least likelihood of being turned into an out. And more flyballs obviously is good for power, especially when Haniger is smashing the ball like he is! Haniger has always used the whole field well, and that is continuing this year with a current 40% pull rate, 41.8% centerfield rate, and an 18.2% opposite field rate. That use of the whole field helps him sustain a solid BAPIP as it’s not easy to utilize the shift against him. Now let’s get into the fun stuff…his quality of contact numbers! Haniger is currently sporting a 43.6% Hard hit rate so far which currently ranks in a tie for 26th best in the majors with Freddie Freeman. That 43.6% mark ranks 10th among OFers so far. Now the Hard Contact rate is likely to go down some with a bigger sample, but for reference, a 43.6% hard-hit rate would have ranked 5th in the majors among qualified hitters last year behind just Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge, Paul Goldshmidt, and Corey Seager. That 43.6% hard contact rate this year is supported by a well above-average 92.9 MPH average exit velocity (MLB average is currently 89.03) which ranks in a tie for 25th best in the majors so far with Yasiel Puig and ranks ahead of names like Marcell Ozuna, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Rhys Hoskins. In addition to that, according to Statcast data, 52.9% of his contact has been 95 MPH or higher which is crazy and ranks in a tie for 19th best in the majors so far. He’s also barreling balls with high consistency with his Barrels per Baseball event ranking 30th best in the majors, and his Barrels per plate appearance ranking in a tie for 22nd best in the majors. To add even more, his 12.7% soft contact rate is currently tied for 27th best in the majors. Those are elite quality of contact skills he’s showing so far and that's what has me believing that what Haniger is doing is legit! Bench heat is looking awesome, and my suggestion is to buy high if you can!
  5. 6 points
    For those of us in redraft leagues we can finally start considering picking him up: New Player Note Sun, Apr 22 Teoscar Hernandez went 2-for-4 with a homer in a loss to the Yankees on Sunday. Advice: Hernandez homer was the only run of the game for the Blue Jays, and it came off of Luis Severino in the top of the sixth inning. What a sensational start to the 2018 campaign it's been for the former Houston prospect, as he now owns a .343/.395/.743 line for his efforts. If you haven't yet, you should add Hernandez to your dynasty roster right now. He's obviously worth consideration in redraft leagues as well. (Rotoworld.com)
  6. 5 points
  7. 5 points
    Rule Proposal: The league shall refer to "the tanking rule" as "the Prez rule". All in favor?
  8. 5 points
    On a somewhat related note I’m excited to watch him play tonight. I’ve got tickets to tonight’s triple A game and hope to see an Acuna bomb. I also get to see Soroka pitch and Joey Bats play third. I’ll try to post a video if Acuna hits a dinger.
  9. 5 points
    bro. I am talking fantasy numbers. Not metrics. I know Kingery IS better, but he has not BEEN better. Most of us don't have ISO, wRC, eieio, woba as categories. I stated 5 x 5. standard leagues. they have been equal. those are what matters. your jibberish are predictors. Hey, it's why I own Kingery and not Franco. I think Kingery will be better and plays more positions numbers I highlighted don't count in fantasy. They are predictors. All that means is Kingery should be better, or will be better. RBI and AVG actually count. Kingery has been a disappointment, thus far. If I had a team of all Franco's and you all Kingery's, we would be about the same right now you metric people should start leagues that use that as stats. seriously. Don't be in RBI, run, AVG leagues, if they are laughable
  10. 5 points
    What? How has Franco been better than Kingery? Wait, did you really just cite RBI total as an indicator or hitter quality? You didn't? See above! rich22, maybe you should use numbers that actually mean something. How about: OBP Kingery .315 Franco .297 wOBA Kingery .332 Franco .310 wRC+ Kingery 109 Franco 94 OPS Kingery .761 Franco .718 ISO Kingery .200 Franco .175 Or just look at RBI and Avg
  11. 5 points
    Why do you say that? I don't think we will see Acuna playing 3B any time soon.
  12. 4 points
    Now tell me if you think Ron Gardenhire knows what any of this means ?
  13. 4 points
    Nathan is a 6 time All-Star who has 377 career saves. Just 2 years ago Familia led the league in saves with 51.
  14. 4 points
    The stats I posted were a direct response to your claim that Franco would get more PT than Kingery because you thought Franco is better. You then backtracked and said they were "the same", but even that was incorrect. As the stats show, Kingery has been objectively better by almost every single offensive metric, and he crushes Franco defensively. Those are the things that matter when it comes to playing time, especially to an org as progressive as the Phillies. So no, I'm not worried about Kingery's playing time at this point. If he's benched, it won't be because the Phils think Franco is more valuable or productive. This early in the season RBI and runs are basically just noise, and have almost zero predictive value. Fenamo's post earlier talking stabilizations points and exit velo was fantastic. I would highly suggest that anyone unfamiliar with any of the things he mentioned to dig around a bit on sites like fangraphs and baseball savant.
  15. 4 points
    Re: Shane Greene He's blown his last two save opportunities. He’s also a former SP who last year was sort of thrown into the fire out of necessity. He was like the 4th option. I would not be surprised if he blew his next save that they might go to Jimenez. That would be 3 in a row. And while you and I know the Tigers aren’t going anywhere, they’re actually playing well, floating around .500 and just 2.5 back from Cleveland (early I know, lol) and I wouldn’t be shocked if Gardenhire put Jimenez in. Considering bullpen usage around the league, Greene would have at least as much value, if not more, if he shows to be an effective multi-inning guy. Of course if Greene nails his next save or two, I don’t think anything happens. But if Greene gets in trouble again, I’d run to grab Jimenez. Just my $0.02
  16. 4 points
    Haniger has a 138 wRC+ since the start of last year. For reference, Jose Abreu and Cody Bellinger were at 138 last year. Mitch is pacing for his THIRD month of at least a .950 OPS out of his past six (with him only getting 38 at bats one of those months). With any improved consistency or health, he is likely going to end up with one of the best ROI's of any draft pick this year.
  17. 4 points
    Stick him at 3B after one more start at SS and OF.
  18. 4 points
    Some of the “takes” in these forums are beyond comical. We are still in April, freaking April. Conforto wasn’t supposed to be back until May. Furthermore he has only logged 47 AB’s. Mike Trout can look like dog crap over a 47 AB period, Tim Anderson can look like a first round draft pick over a 47 AB period. 47 AB’s isn’t enough to draw any conclusions let alone actionable ones. Yes his hard hard contact is down slightly, his IFFB% is up. His walk rate is also up and K rate is similar. Conforto is is coming off an injury, a shortened spring training and a schedule that has been filled with crappy weather and postponements. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. If you are in a league that is so shallow you can feel comfortable cutting a guy who could be a top 25 OF be my guest but the snap judgements and gross overreactions based on such a small sample are beyond ridiculous. Not many fantasy championships are won in April but a great many are likely lost by overreactions and roster decisions based on small samples. I’m not in the least concerned about Conforto at this point. Furthermore unless it is a week of terrible pitching matchups he is not even a bench player for me. Let’s talk again on May 15th and see if there is reason for concern or optimism.
  19. 4 points
    A team that was 17-2 going 35-5 was a silly prediction? Ok. Here knicksfan, I’ll make the only prediction you would endorse: “ZOMG YANKEES ARE GOING TO HIT ONE MILLION HOME RUNS! JUDGE IS THE BEST HITTER EVERRRRR!!” And I’m sure most would agree the sensitive one is the Yankee fan who comes in to troll the Red Sox Thread after they lose 2 in a row. Lol
  20. 4 points
    Matheny said after the game that the top of the order coming up in the eighth led to the decision to bring in Norris then (a 1-run game when he got him up). Said it had no bearing on the closer situation. But when asked if Holland is ready for saves, Matheny said he’s close. — game story on MLB.com.
  21. 4 points
    ANYONE who tells you that you should take Torres over Seager - you should NEVER listen to their fantasy advice ever again. Corey Seager is a guy who finished third in MVP voting two years ago at the age of 22, and has been a two-time AS. If you're interested in picking up a guy who might not finish the year on the ML roster for a guy almost guaranteed to put up .300/25/75-85 go for it. Torres isn't going to sniff that type of production this season.
  22. 3 points
    Hudson Potts has pretty much moved into must own territory in most dynasty formats IMO. He has made DRAMATIC progress this year. Last year at low A ball he slashed .253/.293/.438 as an 18 year old which doesn't look impressive on the surface. However, he features massive power. He was only player outside of Tatis and Stanton to ever hit 20 at that level. He also went on a tear to finish the second half last year which was probably a sign of things to come this year. This year in advanced A (A+) as a 19 year old he is slashing .354/.400/.600 which is great, but the most interesting thing is how much his hit tool has progressed to go along with his power. In 2017 Potts K'd in 26.8% of his ABs and had a contact rate of 71%. In 2018 Potts is K-ing in 12.9% of his ABs and making contact at a 86% rate at a more advanced level.
  23. 3 points
    Andujing it, Andujing it, Andujing it well
  24. 3 points
  25. 3 points
    Going to miss the Coors series...sounds about right for my team
  26. 3 points
    David Dahl, David Dahl, David Dahl.
  27. 3 points
    Experimenting with some streaming today as I have had some injuries/drops - so roster spots opened up and I know I will need to chase my opponent in some pitching cats this week. That said, go Buehler, Folty, and Stratton.
  28. 3 points
    Magnifico! https://www.mlb.com/news/jose-martinez-has-improbable-journey-to-mlb/c-273501562
  29. 3 points
  30. 3 points
    I've owned Ervin the last couple of years and stashed him for $1. He does nothing real flashy, but is consistent as they come. You will find lots of 7 IP, 2-3 ER, 7 K, 2 BB lines. He's easy to own in QS leagues. I hope he gets back soon as some of my lottery ticket SPs have not panned out at all.
  31. 3 points
    Manaea has a pretty solid track record of 3.8/1.2 ball with around 8 k's per nine. He pitches at the colliseum and the athletics offense looks better with a second glance. His numbers sucked last year because of a stretch of 3 starts where he got absolutely demolished. Like 18 runs in 15 innings or something. Take that blip away and he was the same guy. He's still plenty young so... Why exactly do u want to sell him? No one is going to give you say, a Carlos martinez for him but quite frankly, if u we're savvy enough to draft him past 200. You already made profit on draft day.
  32. 3 points
  33. 3 points
  34. 3 points
    "PLAYING TIME" What influences his playing time? Not the basic fantasy stats. His manager is one of, if not the most analytically minded coaches in the game. What stats do you think he uses to decide playing time?
  35. 3 points
    He had 18 HRs in 382 at bats last year. He had 17 in 542 the year before. He was making tremendous in power rates last year before having injuries. Giants lineup was atrocious also. Much better players around him. I think he’s well on his way to a very nice season.
  36. 3 points
    When you look at his underlying numbers it's really hard to understand what's going on. The biggest glaring thing is the LOB% which was mentioned above. I wouldn't sell low. If anything I would be looking to buy from a panicked owner.
  37. 3 points
    definitely Trevor Rosenthal or Seung Hwan Oh
  38. 3 points
  39. 3 points
    Da f***? He’s had one stint in MLB where he hit .315 with an .860 OPS in first cup of coffee. Today he managed a game where he ended with a hit, an RBI and a walk in his first MLB at bat in over a year. He may have hype like most Rockie hitters do. But it isn’t because of lack of skill. No f***** clue why we’re micro analyzing 4 at bats here today. Maybe it’s the same reason Story thread has so much commentary, Rockies hitters = golden goose.
  40. 3 points
    Angels aren't playoffs contenders??
  41. 3 points
    Killing your whip? He has a 1.13 whip on the season lol
  42. 3 points
    Good news: he made it through the game healthy.
  43. 3 points
    Why are you so intense about this? You related to Hader? Take it easy man, we’re all speculating in this thread 95% of the time. Yourself included.
  44. 3 points
    I want to rephrase this another way-- I also want to be clear... that we're talking about IF and not WHEN-- But here's the thing about Caleb Smith. There's certain skills that are going to cost you just a lot more or gain value a lot quicker. A pitch to contact pitcher who's breaking out now won't be likely seen as a viable fantasy asset nearly as quickly as a strikeout pitcher. And when it comes to Smith, the ERA and BB/9 will keep enough owners from shying away. But, if Caleb Smith has a scoreless outing next, or a couple really good starts next, then we'll be talking about a pitcher who, after 4-5 Starts, is under a 4.00 ERA (only needs to pitch 2.2 IP clean to get to a sub-4.00), likely between 10-12 K/9, at a relatively young age, in the NL, with elite Peripheries in terms of Swing-and-miss. So what I'm essentially saying is still the same thing. Maybe this is just coming off as a repetition. But in essence: Don't buy Caleb Smith because I believe there's a really good chance he breaks out. Buy Caleb Smith because the upside he's flashing is substantially more than what most pitchers do, and the cost for a Caleb Smith-skill-set breakout that we're seeing is going to be substantial. The cost in a guy like Caleb Smith will skyrocket if he has that big dominant start. Again, that's a big if, but if he has a 6 Inning Scoreless, 6 k outing next week he'll have a 3.26 ERA, 11.64 K/9, and a Whiff% that would rival the league leaders on any given year through 4 starts, and that's just simply not a guy who's likely to be on the Wire in any leagues, and right now he's on the wire in every league, or at least 98.2% of leagues via ESPN. So, get him now when he's absolutely free, drop him if he sucks, and if he does have that outing you have at the least a player with spiking value. I play in a deep Fantrax league where he was used as a streamer and then dropped today and I literally let out a "Hah" when I saw him dropped because I couldn't believe anyone was dropping him after a 7K 1BB performance, but people still see Caleb Smith as a streamer...to me he's the opposite of a streamer. If I could even avoid using him I probably would in numerous scenarios. But I want him on my roster in as many leagues as possible as a flier that could mature in value substantially and quickly. And one last note: the Change-Up wasn't there today, and has been his least effective overall pitch at least in terms of whiffs it seems in his first three outings. His Slider has actually been arguably the most dominant. 12 Whiffs / 61 Pitches coming into today and had 6 Whiffs on 29 pitches via Brooks today adding up to 18 / 90 or a really solid 20.0% SwStr% on that Pitch. What's interesting to me is that, when doing research more recently, most scouting reports I saw discussed a consistent/strong Change-Up and a lack of a consistent breaking ball. So I wouldn't say the fact that we've seen virtually the opposite in three starts is a good thing, but I do think it gives you a bit of optimism if only to the idea that he can throw a change-up.
  45. 2 points
    Apparently too late to edit my post, but thanks for pointing that out - didn't realize Ausmus was out.
  46. 2 points
    Just wanted to point out some differences so far this year in Dansby Swanson’s profile: Average Exit Velocity: 86.8 MPH in 2017, 91.1 MPH in 2018. 95+ MPH hit rate: 31.7% in 2017, 42.4% in 2018. Barrels per baseball event: 3.0 in 2017, 6.8 in 2018. Pull%: 42.5% in 2017, 47.5% in 2018. Opposite Field%: 26.6% in 2017, 30.5% in 2018. Soft Contact rate: 18% in 2017, 13.6% in 2018. wRC+ against Fastball: 90 in 2017, 291 in 2018 Dude is mashing fastballs this year, and I think it’s due to his swing adjustments that are talked about here: https://www.bigthreesports.com/dansby-swanson-adjustment-spring-training-2018/ He seems to be on time with fastballs this year, cutting his K% on them by over 6% this year and that seems to be the biggest difference in Swanson this year. He also looks to have made some gains so far against curveballs, cutting his K% against Curves from 44.4% in 2017, to 20% this year. Super small sample applies but there seem to be some gains in Swanson’s profile!
  47. 2 points
    Charlie Morton has to be the easiest buy high in the league. Especially with multiple people here saying sell high. 33.3% K% 6.1% BB% 60.3% GB% 2.32 xFIP 16% SwStrk% 96 MPH Fastball with a wicked curveball Pitches for the Astros He's legit folks. This isn't no 3 week hot streak either, he's just picking up where he left off last year. Even when he inevitably regresses he'll put up James Paxton 2017 numbers.
  48. 2 points
  49. 2 points
    This is one. One person's sell high is another's buy high.