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  1. 7 points
    Tell me how I should have stated it and then I will go back and edit it according to your evaluation.
  2. 6 points
    Ran across it and thought it was interesting, he's pretty solid imo--esp when it comes to fantasy adjustments. https://razzball.com/top-100-prospects-for-fantasy-baseball-mid-season-2018/
  3. 5 points
    You got to stop eating burritos right before you go to bed.
  4. 5 points
    I find it crazy how so many believe that the Yankees are the ones who get to make that decision.
  5. 5 points
    There's only 1 of those guys
  6. 4 points
    "I'd rather go back in time and select a 1st round RB in the late rounds" Thanks for the insight.
  7. 4 points
    You mean after choking in the postseason, performing poorly this year, cussing off the manager, and, in a fit of lunacy, punching himself in the face? Nah he'll probably be back on the roster shortly.
  8. 4 points
  9. 4 points
    Good for Lisa. Anyone who has played fantasy baseball long enough has been hit by the HR derby curse.
  10. 4 points
  11. 4 points
  12. 4 points
    Wanna just rephrase these in a bit of a different statistical sense. Firstly though, even though I haven't been accused of it, I'd just like to address my own biases. Yes, I am a Bears fan. But there is one Bear I want this year, and it's that simple. The fan in me wants to take a shot at AR, a talent I've liked since PSU, but I don't find that he even remotely stands out among the WRs listed among him. Cohen I like and think can be a solid PPR piece, but I'm not buying into the hype that he's going to be a fantasy stud really. I still think his role, like most others, will be inconsistent. Trey Burton is a TE with some fantasy hype. If I can get Burton in my last couple rounds of a standard sized league as my TE1 or even 2, I"ll do it. If anyone jumps him, which they usually do, I won't get Burton. But I love Howard. I've referred to him as this above, but I consider Howard "the first line of Offense" so to speak. Howard to me is the most important in making everything work. He's top 10 in RTDs, R. Yards, YPC, and Yards After Contact since his entrance into the league two years ago. Last year he suffered due to stacked boxes. But stacked boxes this year are going to be harder to come by. Nagy can use virtually the same personnel positionally, but instead of Howard seeing an 8 Man Box with Inman, Wright, Sims, and Zach Miller/Daniel Brown in a 2-WR, 2-TE set, he'll have AR, Gabriel/Anthony Miller, Shaheen, and Burton. Will they definitively be able to keep the box "un-stacked?" Maybe, maybe not. But I think it's more likely than not. And tempting Defenses to stack the box... saying "Hey, our QB is still a Sophomore who went 7/7 TD/INT last year, and we will run it up your bum until your defense is battered if you want to put quicker DBs on the field," to me, is still the most important part of the offense. The dichotomy between a strong, physical running game and a quick, efficient passing game. But Howard doesn't need an I-Form or even to run out of Ace. He had great numbers last year running Inside Zone from Shotgun. So if you can threaten the physical running game while not being set for it-- I think THAT is what Howard brings to the table that is being greatly undersold. They do not NEED (contrary to Fox-ian beliefs) to telegraph the run to put Howard in. Even if you don't want him running routes I'll take the extra blocker. There's plenty you can do with Howard just being in the game to open up the passing game taht has nothing to do with Howard catching passes. Not believing that is just not thinking creatively enough on the offensive side. But more to the point of what I wanted to write on specifically with the red zone numbers. I wish I could find Red Zone plays for team. If someoen has a source for that exact measurement, I'd appreciate it. I'll make do without for now. Take a usage comparison with someone like Todd Gurley. Gurley ran the ball 279 times which, based on a Team Plays per Game metric, would be roughly 27.9% of the Rams plays. Howard's ratio, despite playing on a team more often losing, is actually higher due to the talent surrounding him, with his 276 Attempts equating 29.5% of the offense. As mentioned, we expect the usage to go down in Neutral Scripts. And I agree with that entirely. The Bears, if they are a successful offense, will run a few more plays, which should make up for some of the difference, but ultimately it does seem like Howard having fewer carries is probably the right projection. But the total carries isn't really the main thing I'm concerned with here. Gurley had 62 Attempts inside the 20 Yard Line, or roughly 22.22% of his carries came within the 20. Howard had 32 Attempts inside the 20 Yard Line, or roughly 11.60% of his carries came within the 20. Unfortunately again I don't have Red Zone plays, so it makes the discussion of the argument a bit trickier, but there's not a single logical explanation that could possibly explain this other than the fact that the Bears were in the Red Zone so infrequently last year that despite being a bigger part of the offense as a whole, he saw half the proportion of his carries from inside the Red Zone. I don't think Howard has a very good shot at surpassing 270 carries again. But I do think Howard has a VERY good shot of seeing both a higher proportion and a higher volume of his carries from within the redzone. Out of Running Backs who scored at least 6 Red Zone TDs last year (Howard had 8), only three had fewer attempts, Alex Collins* (6 TD on 27 ATT), Alvin Kamara (6 TD on 25 ATT) and Lenoard Fournette (7 TD on 29 ATT). *Shout-out to Alex Collins who I also really like this year. Maybe Howard is unlikely to convert carries for TDs at the same rate as he did in 2017, but regardless, if he just sees those 240 carries and sees his ratio of carries inside the 20 jump from 11% to 16-20%, he'll still see that Red Zone carry number rise to 40-48. He wont' need to repeat the ratio to repeat 8 TDs, but if he does he'll probably end up with more than 10. And not wanting it to go forgotten-- again, Howard suffered through terrible conditions last year. Nagging injuries, horrendous coaching, and talentless receiving corps. And he still proved himself to be FAR above average in this area. If you completely disagree about the state of the Bears offense-- that they won't be middle of the pack and able to actually score points consistently this year-- then you probably won't agree with me about Howard. And that's fine. But I expect the Bears to have a prettty solid defense and no matter how good or bad Nagy is he's better than the utter trash Dowell Loggains / John Fox provided. Loggains has some excruciating quotes from the past calendar year as a fan that just say "I have no business being in this sport at this level." And "I don't have the creativity or innovation to run a modern NFL offense." I expect running conditions to improve. I expect the offense to be in the Red Zone more, and I expect Howard to thrive in that area because that's what he was made to do. And with that defense, I also think the Bears could find themselves in ball control mode a few more times this year, particularly with a non-Divisional schedule that I consider one of the easiest (probably THE easiest from a preseason standpoint) in the entire NFL. And if they're up late in games it is going to be the Jordan Howard show, of that much I am sure. After all the offseason talk about replacements, the Bears have brought in absolutely zero competition for Howard for between-the-tackles running, short of a UDFA who's also listed as a Fullback in Ryan Nall.
  13. 4 points
  14. 4 points
    FantasyPros projected him for 21 homers and ESPN projected him for 22 homers. Lol, fail.
  15. 3 points
    Just to get ahead of this annual tradition of shoddy analysis: SABR: Home Run Derby Curse: Fact or Fiction? FiveThirtyEight: The Home Run Derby Myth MLB.com: Home Run Derby curse is merely a myth
  16. 3 points
    I don't really believe in the curse. Most players are in the HR derby because they are having unsustainable HR success at the break. Plus having a week off of baseball is going to kill some momentum as it is. You can find players who regressed after the derby and you can find players who got even better after the derby. Everybody is different. You can point to Joc Pederson significantly regressing and I can point to Stanton hitting 18 homers in August last year.
  17. 3 points
    I mean I understand that intellectually but I’m not going to go through every player and estimate the total games they will miss then compare that total against the value of the games by a replacement player. Because any games missed is merely an estimated guess and not reliable. Garbage in/garbage out. Your method is more accurate but I think sometimes dumb, easy, and close is good enough for me.
  18. 3 points
    Frankly, I don't care whether the "curse" is real or not. We all know that baseball is a highly mental game. If the participants don't believe in the curse...then the curse isn't real. If they do believe in the curse...then the first slump they get into post-ASB potentially comes with the notion that maybe it's the HRD's fault. It gets in their head, they press, things go off the rails a bit. Something that isn't real becomes a reality. The mind can make things seem real. Isn't that the basis of superstition to begin with? We know that Wade Boggs eating fried chicken before every game didn't make him a better hitter...but he did it anyway. We know that Turk Wendell chewing licorice on the mound and brushing his teeth between innings didn't make him pitch better...but he did it anyway. How many players refuse to step on the base lines when going in and out of the dugouts? Doesn't make them play worse if they step on it...but they believe it does. Sometimes it's all about the mind, and if the mind convinces you that wearing a gold thong (Jason Giambi) or adjusting your batting gloves the same way between every pitch (Nomar) or not letting your GM watch you pitch (Trevor Hoffman) or wearing the same lid all season (Wetteland, Lincecum, among many others) makes you better...well then you do that. If the mind makes it real...then doesn't the superstition become real to them, even if the rest of the world knows otherwise? Point being, baseball players are very superstitious. Anyone who was a baseball player or has been around many ball players know they are a superstitious lot. So in their superstition, if the HRD is a curse...well, then it's a curse. The mind, for many people, is far more powerful (and real) than reality itself. Some things can't be quantified by mathematics or scientific study.
  19. 3 points
    back in business today.. and batting 3rd! quickest recovery ever
  20. 3 points
    I think we're talking May 2019 as the first reasonable shot at promotion. Puk dominated in the spring and was being discussed as an opening day possibility, but more likely, they would have sent him down for some "fine tuning" and an extra year of team control. If Luzardo keeps dominating, I see a similar path for him.
  21. 3 points
  22. 3 points
    Declined an invitation to the HR derby. Smart move in my opinion.
  23. 3 points
  24. 3 points
    He added more drop to his changeup by changing the grip and it’s turned into an elite pitched. The whiff rate has doubled from last year. https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=18498&position=P&pitch=CH
  25. 3 points
    They can't stop him walking. He is a FA. And the Phillies have way W-A-Y more money to use to get him under the luxury tax threshold. And the Phils have very deep pockets too and said this off season they will make a major splash in the FA market. If they really want Machado they are the odds on favorites. And if what you are saying is that the Yankees can then make a deal with Manny long term this sesaon. Just no. There is no way in hell Manny would make a long term deal "now." He will end up with one of the biggest mega-contracts in baseball history by going the free agency route with teams bidding like crazy for him. I think he will get a way better contract than Harper for sure. So know it makes no sense for Manny to make a deal now with the Yankees this year.
  26. 3 points
    Remember folks..It's bad luck to be superstitious.
  27. 3 points
    i like my crow well done. sorry i doubted you Mr. Winker.
  28. 3 points
    yup he is better, but a lot of things can change in one year. Look at DMC, injury has caused a max player to get what 5m?
  29. 3 points
  30. 3 points
    And when he does take them people will do this to him
  31. 2 points
    Thanks for all the analysis and insight, guys. Great to enter the Mixon thread and be instantly transported back to middle school.
  32. 2 points
    I agree completely. I was just trying to give the guy what he wanted and decided it wasn't worth the effort to do the ERAs, as well. He does need to bring his walks down. Free passes kill young pitchers. I was impressed by how he battled on the road against Cincy, but he does have a ways to go. I like the talent, and I hope he can harness it.
  33. 2 points
    He's so good you can't even remember his name.
  34. 2 points
    I love the cherry pickers in these forums lol “ well if you take All of pitcher x’s good starts out, his numbers look horrible!!!”
  35. 2 points
    I dont have a link but i rememver an interview with Abreu saying its hard readjusting to mlb pitching after the all star break and seeing all those easy pitches in the derby, if it takes some time to adjust back it could lead to a slump, which is why HR derby participants are can regress after the all star break. They will come out of it but by that time their excelleny pre all star pace has slowed dramatically.
  36. 2 points
    "you're only an iron man until you're not" - Josh Loyd
  37. 2 points
    Yep, which means he should have never been reasonably expected to double his pre-ASB output of 18, which means it's another case of the curse being ret-conned in by people looking to fit a ready-made narrative to the data instead of the other way around.
  38. 2 points
  39. 2 points
    For my fellow Angels fans:
  40. 2 points
    With all that quality contact he has no time to be taking walks. ?
  41. 2 points
    That's right. You said it yourself in a way. No. Did Chapman re-sign with the Indians? Did JD re-sign with the D-Backs. Free agency does not work that way. It never has. Machado's agent makes the deal in the end basically and the more money he gets him the more the agent pockets. Few players veto their agent. And I'm sure that speculation is from Yankee fans you mention. Because national baseball writers and reporters with no horse in the race have had their money on Philly for some time. And I think it would be dumb for Manny to play in NY where he is just one of several stars when he can be THE man in Philly while still having an even bigger contract than NY can offer. NY simply cannot match a determined Philly offer because of the luxury tax. I think they will try for Harper instead in the end since they obviously can't get both anyway. Doesn't mean they won't put in an offer as will the Dodgers and Cubs and others. But it is Philly's contract to lose, not the Yankees.
  42. 2 points
    Don't know where I'd be w/o this freak of nature.
  43. 2 points
    Diamondbacks using a position player to pitch in the 4th inning.
  44. 2 points
    The only thing that could make it better is if they bring in Fat Eddy to replace Shady.
  45. 2 points
    so it2, a year ago before getting traded, he was talking about not giving Celtics a discount in 2018 summer, and was looking for 200m contract. Now he can't even get a mid level exception. nerlens noel offered a 70m contract, he turned it down, decided to sign for minimum deal. Things can change in an instant. Capela should sign his name on the dotted line if he got offered 85m. That's a pretty good deal for a player who can still get paid when this 85m contract is over
  46. 2 points
    FAAB budget is $100, but FAAB only runs on Tuesday night (for Wednesday pick-up) or for players that are dropped to waivers. After that, it is simple Free Agency... you see him, you want him, you can grab him...
  47. 2 points
    Browns leading the Bengals 17-0 after the 1st quarter.
  48. 2 points
    The myth that the Patriots backfield should be avoided or Belichick is out to screw fantasy owners really needs to die. Blount was a stud in 2016. Dion Lewis was a stud in 2015 and last season. James White rarely gets carries. By all means dont draft RBs from (arguably) the best offense in the league and leave them for the rest of us.
  49. 2 points
    There's no one on base in the HR Derby so Muncy is gonna dominate
  50. 2 points