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Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/13/2018 in all areas

  1. 9 points
  2. 6 points
    Last season I plotted the 2016 ADP against the 2016 end-of-season leaders. That gives you a graph with 4 groups of data for RB, WR, TE and QB with ADP vs actual results. I let Excel figure out the best trendline through each group and retrieved the formula for the line. This formula now gives you a very rough estimation for what each position should give in expected value at each pick. I then let Excel run thousands of mock drafts and compared the results (I assumed a standard lineup). I found the highest expected value if you drafted RB, RB, RB, TE, WR, WR, QB. This would be around 10% better than the worst, which would be to draft a QB in the first round. I then started playing with the formulas and the parameters - and found radically different results. The thing is that the uncertainty involved in each player is so much larger than the potential gain in a slightly different strategy, that in practice it doesn't really matter too much. For example, if you drafted DJ first last season, everyone would have agreed you did the right thing. And then he got injured and suddenly your best player was essentially a third rounder (and with a bit of bad luck you would lose him too). TL/DR; just go for the players you like and don't get too hung up on strategy. Oh, and of course I will do the same exercise for 2017 data. I'll share it too, if anyone is interested.
  3. 5 points
    Here's a guy who could help you win your league if he hits the ground running. He was completely off my radar, so thanks to the guys in his MiLB thread for their insight and news of his callup. Here's really all you need to know: - C eligibility in most formats - slashed .349/.446/.531 in 102 games between AA and AAA this year - 14 HR / 18 SB - will be playing 3B for the Angels regularly down the stretch, there's really no one to challenge him - former 1st round pick who has finally found his offense after being moved off of Catching That's really all I know, and it's good enough for me in the wasteland that is the catcher position!
  4. 3 points
    I'm not starting him in Boston BUT he has the level of stuff that if he figures it out it can play in anywhere against anybody. If seems as simple as being allowed to throw higher strikes. Pittsburgh forces low strikes on it's pitchers, and when coming from the angle of 6'8" Glasnow the downward plane would have him miss low when trying for it too often, but TB is allowing the high strike and switching levels - so he can aim higher in the zone and if he misses low instead of being a ball, it's a low strike still. Of course he's also dealing more in the meat of the plate so there is give and take but that is the art of pitching and pitch calling.
  5. 3 points
  6. 3 points
    PLAY OF THE DAY GOES TO ... RUSSELL WILSON AND TYLER LOCKET The chemistry between quarterback Russell Wilson and wide receiver Tyler Lockett looks like it's at mid-season form. On a play-action pass in team scrimmaging, Wilson connected with Lockett on a 75-yard bomb for a touchdown — drawing the largest cheer from the 12s at the VMAC Sunday. The fourth-year wideout blew by safety Bradley McDougald on the play. https://www.seattlepi.com/sports/seahawks/article/Seahawks-Clark-participates-in-team-drills-for-13150625.php
  7. 2 points
  8. 2 points
    If the recovery goes well and next TC and preseason he's making plays and it looks good - similar to this year I bet hes top 40 again. Now lots can happen between now and then, especially if WSH brings in a guy and he plays well but I think the hype will continue next year. In keeper/dynasty now is the time to buy. I'm definitely interested I just don't know where I should draft him so I can stash him.
  9. 2 points
    Last 14 days on fire: .326 in 46 ABs, 6 HRs, 2 SBs 11 runs 8 RBIs
  10. 2 points
    I have Stripling and I'm hoping the same. I had Maeda but traded him with a pick for Buehler today. It sounds like Maeda is there to stay, so I made the move before the deadline. Here's hoping Stripling gets back in....you know, a Hill blister or something.
  11. 2 points
    top 5 dynasty catcher for next decade.... all aboard!
  12. 1 point
  13. 1 point
  14. 1 point
    I think his upside is 30/30, with a floor of struggling with K’s and batting in the bottom of the lineup.
  15. 1 point
    I dont think the player should worry you. The situation should. If they're bringing on another RB who has veteran presence either A) McKinnons injury could linger for some time or they dont trust what they have in early downs.
  16. 1 point
    Cano, who went 0-for-3 with a walk and a run in Low-A Everett's win over Eugene on Saturday while starting at third base. Manager Scott Servais received positive reports about Cano's defensive performance at the hot corner, Greg Johns of MLB.com reports. That's particularly relevant, considering the plans the Mariners have of moving Cano around the infield upon his planned Tuesday activation. Johns reports that one of those positions will occasionally be the keystone, where current everyday second baseman Dee Gordon is currently battling a shoulder injury that necessitated a day off Sunday.
  17. 1 point
    In my league where you can keep players drafted in specific rounds I missed him his rookie season, and was really kicking myself. I thought he was going to be really good. I just can't figure out why he's floundering so much, he was really good in college and has all the physical tools to be an elite NFL WR
  18. 1 point
    Also, even with the best drafts, injuries can throw a wrench into the mix in a big way. Draft guys you like and are confident in. And be ready to change your strategy if your league mates throw your plans up in the air with some off/early/reaching picks.
  19. 1 point
    you know it. now it's time to buy myles' while his stock is down right?
  20. 1 point
    Starting him and Reid-Foley in my 14 team league. Playing with fire is fun!
  21. 1 point
    4 saves in the last 4 days - well on his way to recording the single season save record and one of the best seasons for a RP in recent memory.
  22. 1 point
    The whole Bengals offense probably. They're my bargain team this season with the hype surrounding other teams. Even Green and Mixon having some skeptics. And if you remember when their offense was in the top half of the league, Dalton was good too. He's virtually going undrafted. Keep an eye on Auden Tate too. He should be in a lot of redzone packages for them too.
  23. 1 point
    It was one preseason game. I think Chubb is more of a bench stash, or keeper pick this year than anything else, and hopefully people are drafting him that way. If you're counting on him to be your RB2 or RB3 in week 1 he'll probably under-deliver. Maybe people expected him to come screaming out of the gates and take the starter role in game 1, but I was thinking it would take time and could easily be a RBBC all year. Hyde isn't a pushover and probably isn't going away completely.
  24. 1 point
    A lot of plays had no running room. Some plays did look like he screwed it up, like at the 1:23 mark of the 2nd video. It looked like he had some lanes on that run to get to the 2nd level, and cut the wrong way into a LB. Anyways, it was his first NFL touches. On the first carry he's got happy feet before the ball is even snapped. He probably was nervous and it will only get better so I'm not writing him off after 1 preseason game.
  25. 1 point
    ESPN has him down for two, @MIN, CHC
  26. 1 point
    For me, if you're doing an IDP league, you either have to go "all-in" or not at all. To have just 3 IDP starters in a 12-team league, it's not even worth the effort. The scoring difference between those players is so slight, there's really no strategy involved whatsoever in drafting them. You're basically just picking 3 studs at each spot at the end of your draft -- and if one gets hurt, you can just pick up another on the waiver wire. So what's the point? There's more strategy involved with your kicker. I completely disagree with your DB assessment. Patrick Peterson is not widely regarded as the best corner -- in fact in 2017 he was the #57 rated DB by Pro Football Focus. You can adjust your scoring to give DBs more points for INTs, tackles, sacks, and passes defensed -- which is more reflective of their real-life NFL value. Sure QBs may avoid throwing to them, but those DBs typically make up for it in other ways. From my experience, safeties are the most valuable DBs as they give a more consistent tackle stat line from week to week. Cornerbacks are more boom/bust, but this all goes into your lineup strategy. If you have an opportunity to start an average safety vs. Alex Smith, or a top CB vs. Deshone Kizer, I'd probably go with the latter. The leagues I play in typically have 2-4 DE/DL, 3-5 LB, 4-6 DB/S This requires some real strategy and scouting effort, and keeps the waiver wire pool to mostly NFL bench/part-time players.
  27. 1 point
    this. he's not cut in the Dorsett mold, we need him to be the Lynch/Riggins/Campbell model ... fun.
  28. 1 point
    Yeah, thank God Hackenburg came along. Maybe now they can finally win a Super Bowl.
  29. 1 point
    Forcing each team to draft 2 TEs really shouldn't change people's draft strategy just instead of taking a late round flier on the last guy on their bench that guy will have to be a TE instead. Seems foolish to use a higher pick on your backup TE unless you intended to anyway (which I'm not a fan of). If you are forced to start 2 TEs that is a different story entirely. Limiting the number of wideouts you can roster should have a much more meaningful impact cause you can't stash a bunch of fliers so the top talents like Evans will likely have inflated values. I would take Evans who is a backend WR1 and although his TDs were down he got plenty of looks just converted on a uncharacteristically low percentage of them so a positive regression is to be expected. Evan Engram is an athletic freak but not exactly certain why he isn't just a WR since he isn't a great blocker and is smaller than Mike Evans. Although his hands really aren't that good either and with Odell healthy and Barkley in town he can't expect the targets he saw last year and will be hard pressed to come close to his numbers from last year.
  30. 1 point
    Every single preseason since the dawn of time one week we all flip and then the next week we all flop. What're you gonna say after week 2 when Freeman has 4 bad touches and Booker gets a TD? My mind is always at a certain spot going into every preseason on a player. The only outcomes for me are : 1) Validated - continue to pursue 2) Feeling uneasy - abort on said player If after 4 weeks (3) we see more of the same of week 1 I'll likely just end up bailing on Booker, but it will just mean that I likely don't touch anyone in this backfield for better or worse. Plus Freeman is at #53 overall. 0% chance I touch that. If I miss out I miss out, but I'm not sinking that coin when I had more confidence in the "backup" going into the preseason.
  31. 1 point
    Dude I had Hunt on the bench and started Lamar Miller. I lost week 1 by 7pts. Crowell was a highly promoted rb1 candidate in the preseason because of his potential volume+ the Browns o-line and if I remember correctly they even won a preseason game
  32. 1 point
    RB's under Reid can make up for that with catching a lot of balls near the LOS that are masked runs. I think they were hesitant to throw the ball too much to Hunt last season. Hopefully that improves this year. I think the Chiefs moving on from West says a lot. Because Ware was never much of a receiver out of the backfield.
  33. 1 point
    That's the thing tho - if you're taking him in the 5th you're not looking for 5th round value. You're looking to add an elite shot blocker with elite percentages that could be your upside play that helps win your league. The price for that is high. His low rebounds/assists/stl/3 will always keep his value down. He's basically Myles Turner without the 3 ball, but stronger FG%. The great thing with Allen is he doesn't need 30 minutes/night to produce his stats. He'll do just fine with 24-28 min/game. Anything more is gravy. I'll take a shot at 10 points, 6.5 rebounds, 0.5 stls, 2+ blocks on 65+% FG and 80%+ FT (on negligible attempts)...I'll even say that's his floor for this season. For bigs at that point you're probably looking at J-Val, Adams, Whiteside, Kanter, Nurk, Collins, with Allen having the highest upside in blocks out of them all, but probably the lowest rebounds out of them all.
  34. 1 point
  35. 1 point
    4th or 5th round maybe in your four team family league with your kids. His ADP is 20, which in 12 and 14 team leagues is second round. Unless this MRI shows an injury, I don’t think he’s going to fall much from there.
  36. 1 point
  37. 1 point
    Here goes a try not so early in the morning. Last season Ty Montgomery was the starting RB to start the season and then he got hurt in week 4. So you knew to start him weeks 1-4 he had 2 nice games, 2 duds. Jones then started week 5-9 with 8 being a bye so 4 starts by Jones before he got hurt. He also had 2 nice games and 2 duds but like Montgomery to start the year you knew he was the guy based on health. Week 10 through 17 8 games Williams is now the guy so you start him. Now add all that up and the GB RB produced very well last season and each week you knew who was gonna get the work. IIRC finished 7th overall for RB's with 8 weeks of top 12 RB production. This year it won't be as cut and dry early as Ty Montgomery will cloud things early but imo owning all 3 for where they are going or for what they cost at auction can be a very productive position. If I find the podcast I heard this on I will link it and also quote exact stats. Hopefully this is a little easier to understand as I agree my first try wasn't too pretty. Cheers @cohenstantinople@oliminator123@PackersFan1979
  38. 1 point
    LBJ playing center on offense is gonna be a huge sanitary landfill. He is dominating forwards with his mismatch cause he's too strong and fast for them but in moments where he tried to play center like in a miami-indiana playoff series i remembered he really looked like a scared puppy when he tried to score over peak Roy Hibbert. LBJ has a knack for really getting nervous around long centers his lebranium body vibrates and weakens around them his shot really gets distracted and turns into a forced layup where he loses his touch around the rim, we saw this multiple times when he got embarrassed by Capela and Gasol in clutch remember he always gets blocked by these Centers. I also saw him becoming whimpy when playing against Gobert. Its like im having sebbhoric dermatitis i cant stop scratching my head with wtf these lakers team is doing. Straw that broke the camels back will happen if they force LBJ to play with his weakness.
  39. 1 point
    Todd Bowles is one happy man.
  40. 1 point
    The more accurate description for Carroll is that he’s not concerned with where a player is drafted. Im with @handyandy86 here- he’s certainly tried to have a bellcow. Penny won’t be handed it because of where he was drafted tho
  41. 1 point
    Tomato / tomaato. I'd call it a carefully orchestrated push within 1-yard of the line of scrimmage to elevate adrenaline, demonstrate beastliness, and prompt foolish retaliation.
  42. 1 point
    Absolutely 100% true and it also goes for Vladdy
  43. 1 point
    A 3.15 FIP for the season after tonight's start, is far from spooky. Telling me a guy with a 1.61 ERA is getting lucky with a non elite K rate is telling me Water is Wet. The useful debate is the HR/FB rate.(as it pertains if he is closer to his FIP or xFIP) Its really low...but he's pitching in the ball park for it. On the other hand, he is rocking a 42% Hard hit against, he doesn't really induce pop up's. So it might only be a matter of time before he gives up lots of big hits..
  44. 1 point
    Fragile Fred Taylor mocks his durability
  45. 1 point
  46. 1 point
  47. 1 point
    Shanahan Rush Volume: 15: 420 team attempts. Freeman w 264 @ 4.0 = 1060 16: 421. Freeman w 227 @ 4.8 = 1080 17: 408. Hyde w 240 @ 3.9 = 940. 2018? Expect 420. McKinnon w 220. The YPC thing is real, I think. He's not great breaking arm tackles. Still, he is way better suited than Hyde for Shanahan's scheme, and the OL got a lot better. I'm comfortable giving him 4.0... but to be honest, I can't in good faith argue for much more. I think 220 @ 4.0 for 880 is a "safe" projection. 240 @ 4.2 for 1,000 might even be a little optimistic. And I think this is why people are so hesitant with McKinnon. You'd hope that your 2nd/3rd rounder is a safer bet to break 1,000 yards. But the receiving volume will add a really nice buffer. 15: Freeman 73 for 578 16: Freeman 54 for 462 17: Hyde 59 for 350 2018? I'm giving McKinnon 70 for 500. > Freeman's done it. > McKinnon's a better receiver > If Hyde, who we've proven to be s---y in the receiving game, can get 59 (on 88 targets!) McKinnon can get 70. > Add that the receiving options on the team aren't special, and I feel safe giving him 70 catches. > 70 for 500 leaves room for upside. Would not surprise me in the least to see that at 75 for 600+. Touchdowns are hard to predict precisely, but we can try: 15: Freeman 11 Rush + 3 Rec 16: Freeman 11 + 2 17: Hyde 8 + 0. 12.7 OTD per ESPN, in line with the above 18: Improved OL and offense as a whole. Take Hyde's OTD from '17... 10 + 3 seems about right. Tie that all together.... If McKinnon remains healthy for 16 ... Safe assumption: 900 + 500 = 1400 total yards Moderately optimistic: 1000+550 = 1550. Exceed all expectations, be a perfect fit for the outside zone: 250 carries at 4.4 = 1100 yards rushing + 600 receiving = 1700 total yards. Floor: 1400 and 10 Ceiling: 1700 and 14 Best guess = 1500 and 12 Between 200 and 250 standard points. 220 seems optimistic yet realistic. Worst case scenario: McKinnon continues to live in 3.8 YPC land, Joe Williams gets a shot at rushing and proves to be better, and then McKinnon becomes a third down back. However I think Shanahan will live with slightly lower YPC, knowing what McKinnon can do in the passing game on any down and distance. I don't see Joe Williams taking over this year.
  48. 1 point
    Clearly you never paid any attention to Hackenberg in college.
  49. 0 points
    anything is possible ... lol
  50. 0 points
    Move Cam straight up for DJ try that if you haven't yet.