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Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation since 02/10/2012 in all areas

  1. 69 points
    My Overall Top 250 (First Pass) w/Projections/Blurbs/Profiles/etc. So I just finished by blurbs for my first pass at my 2017 overall top 250 for 5x5 Roto leagues. Before I get into anything I wanted to establish a bit of a framework or context for my ranks. This framework I’ll mark by sections and will briefly cover my philosophy as to my intentions with posting my ranks, my method of creating projections, and a bit of a “usage guide” so to speak about how I view the relationship between Rankings, Projections and ADP data. If you want to skip the framework and just click the links to the bottom links I won’t fault you for it at all, but I definitely recommend reading at least the guide because I do find my interpretation of the relationship between Rankings, Projections, and ADP to be important to a reading of my ranks. Intent -- I get two comments typically in regards to ranks: “When will you post them,” and “Why do you post them, because I play in leagues with people who frequent this forum and I don’t want them to know what I’m thinking at the draft board.” I completely understand the latter point, but it has (obviously) never really been my approach to withhold information. Typically if I have information that I haven’t posted yet it is because I’m either working on it or haven’t had the time to develop a profile in a way that makes it more easily viewable. I love playing Fantasy Baseball and I love winning leagues but that’s really never been my big thing. When you boil it down, I’m just not that competitive, at least in that way. I’m competitive in the sense that I want my opinion to be as accurate as possible, I want to be right as often as possible, and perhaps most important, if there’s something that can help me identify where I’m wrong, I’d like to know where it is, identify it, and adjust my own rankings. That’s the real intention of posting this: on the one hand, it does have something to do with giving information and enjoying that aspect of the game, but on the other hand, placing my personal ranks up for public scrutiny creates the easiest avenue for my rankings to be as accurate as possible. In simplistic terms: you get all my work, all my research, and all of my opinions placed simply in front of you with less work; I get you to read it over, identify possible flaws, fix my mistakes, and I get to manipulate ya'll into giving me more sources of information and allowing me to create at least to me what will be the best possible ranking set I can have come draft day. Now, if it’s a player like Story, Blackmon, Baez, Votto, Polanco, or someone that I have a fairly strong opinion on, most likely it’s not going to change without a very surprising bit of information I may have missed, but obviously I haven’t profiled every baseball player quite to the extent that I have guys like Polanco or Story. This thread and these ranks will help create an impetus by which I will be persuaded in various directions to make various more inquiries and, again, create what I believe to be the best possible ranking set. Projections -- This will be brief, because there isn’t necessarily one direct way I go about making projections. My typical path which I followed with most if not all of these players is to do the following: -Project BB% based on past performance, trends, and other patience metrics. -Project K% based on past performance, trends, and other patience and contact metrics. -Project BABIP based on past performance, trends, and predictors including Hard%, Oppo%, GB/LD/FB distribution, Speed, and more. -Project FB% based on past FB%’s and weighing trends. -Project HR/FB% based on career marks, recent trends, and distances -Project PAs -Formulate -Adjust The biggest one here is adjust. I do create a baseline with some sort of model, but for the most part, when my model (read: Calculator) spits out a baseline, I don’t just copy/paste it into my excel. I adjust. A ton of factors can go into these adjustments. Pitch specific data is the biggest that I’ve worked with more heavily this year, but as I said earlier, I just haven’t profiled everybody. So more or less, there are projections that are fairly close to the “baseline” which is pretty much my version of a Steamer or ZiPS, albeit with more weight in trends in players and of advanced stats metrics like Hard%, etc, and there are projections that I’ve worked on a lot and have moved up down and around to get to what I think is the fair projection to make for said player. I’m not worried to break from what a mathematical model spits out to me to create a projection I feel is more accurate for the player. Using My Ranks -- Relating Proj./Rank./ADP -- I find a lot if not most of the people who create their own projections model their Rankings heavily based on their projections. While my projections were done first, and no doubt informed my Rankings, I view them as almost mutually exclusive. Many players will have projections that suggest they should be ranked higher, lower, or differently. One primary factor that can go into this is safety. Rizzo is a prime example of someone who doesn’t have the greatest projection but still has a high ranking because the last few years aside from some stolen base fluctuation, he has been a metronome. A high upside guy I’m confident in like Keon Broxton will inevitably have a projection that would vastly over-earn their ranking because in general I can’t have a complete confidence in them achieving that upside. For the most part, my rankings represent the order in which I would draft with no outside pressuring or constantly in a vacuum, and my projections are a combination of a prediction and a method of balancing numbers so that I can figure out how to balance categories in a 5x5. When ADP comes into play things get really messy. I have many players ranked near 100 picks off of where they are currently ranked by Yahoo!’s draft room, so how do I adjust for that? I don’t believe in constantly passing on superior players in the hopes that they continuously slip, but if I rank players within a marginal range or find another player that I really like and could perhaps support a different path of categorical value, I can find a way to justify passing on someone I rank higher and hoping they slip another round. For example, I have Jose Ramirez ranked 110ish spots above where he’s ranked in Yahoo, but I also have Sanchez, Beltre and Hanley in that range. So if I were in a position where I felt like I could justify getting a little more power first, or getting one of the top catchers, I could justify doing so instead of getting Ramirez and hoping he slips. However, once we exit players that I consider to be of a similar quality, I will draft Ramirez. Even if it’s pick 80 and he’s ranked 160 by the website. If he’s in a tier by himself in my rankings, he’s a must draft. Period. Dot. End. Of. Story. Another thing in regards to rankings: I have a really hard time ranking pitchers alongside relief pitchers alongside hitters, because at a certain point it’s obviously categorical. If you pick a hitter but you really need a pitcher because I have them ranked higher, than you’re probably not doing the right thing. After the top 30-40 picks, where I’d take a pitcher gets really complex, so for the most part, the pitchers are scattered through my ranks, not completely at random, but I never evaluate pitchers versus hitters for my overall after a certain point. Same for closers after the first few tiers. These are three separate markets in a draft to me so the overlap has to do with the way the draft is going. After a point, I didn’t know what relievers would get jobs, but I wanted to reserve the spots for later, so you’ll notice I have some RP spots reserved for future use. I don’t know if this is the best way to go about it, but it’s the way I did it. Here are my rankings in an excel spreadsheet. I didn’t do pitching projections. Maybe I will maybe I won’t, but they’re so much more variable that it’s so frustrating to do: Top 250 w/ Offensive Projections Here are my rankings listed with blurbs. I wrote small blurbs for most but not all offensive players. The blurbs at times link to content on this forum that I have written previously. There are no links to outside websites other than Rotoworld Forum Posts. Most of the blurbs I have written within the past 24-36 hours so if anything reads weird, I apologize, and let me know because I’ll edit it. On both these documents it has a publication date at the top. Edits will change the date, i.e. “Published 2/20” will become “Editted 3/1” to acknowledge changes. This is largely a compilation of my profiles: Overall Top 250 w/ Blurbs I did not write any blurbs for starting pitchers. I decided instead to use the ones I had previously written for my SP Ranks: My SP Ranks And will also add to this my recent profile of Tanner Roark: Tanner Roark Outlook and Profile So cheers, have at it boys, like I said, the goal is to attract criticism with the intent of improving rankings. I got in a mind set that I just wanted to finally get this first pass out so I've been working pretty much non stop on that Google Doc for about 24-36 hours minus elements of sleeping so it may sound a little rushed but I hope it comes across well. Sorry if it lacks the humor, we can't all be @ChicksDigTheOPS
  2. 40 points
  3. 38 points
    He must be yelling ‘ball’ before he throws each pitch.
  4. 37 points
  5. 32 points
    As the season draws to a close, and we're all getting nervous (or cocky) for that last game, let me say thanks to all the good people (and some of the bad ones) on these forums. It's been good, and I've been lucky, but most of all, I honestly want to thank you guys for some great discussions, insights, advice, trolling, and of course some of the best gifs. See you on Sat/Sun/Mon, and see you next year in this roller coaster!
  6. 32 points
    those poor 139 ppl added Emeka Okafor
  7. 30 points
    I could just make this easy and list my roster this season.
  8. 26 points
    to all the big tough guys downplaying this as "not so bad" ... AYFKM? do you have daughters? nieces? would you feel the same if it were them? unf'nbelievable stupidity on display here ... wow
  9. 26 points
  10. 26 points
    College stats Michael Jordan: 17.7 PTS, 5.0 RBS, 1.8 AST, 1.7 STL, 0.7 BLK Buddy Hield: 17.4 PTS, 5.0 RBS, 1.9 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.3 BLK Not saying Hield will be Michael Jordan, but his floor is Vince Carter
  11. 25 points
    If you don't pick up Boban after 1 game and then drop him after the next, are you really playing fantasy basketball?
  12. 25 points
  13. 25 points
    These threads and this forum is becoming a joke. Everyone moans and whines about everyone all the damn time. A bunch of box score watchers. 1) Collins looked great last year 2) Collins looked great last night. 90 yards on 12 touches. Yes please. Making people miss and trucking defenders. What fans of his are seeing is a good talent performing at a high level *when given the chance. 3) I was on the Ravens forum last night and everyone was bitching about Harbaugh and MMs use of Collins. Local media will put it to the coaching staff. Last year the Ravens went 5-2 down the stretch when Collins was getting 18 carries a game. 4) last year Collins had 7 and 9 carries respectively in Ravens first two games. Ravens won convincingly in the first game and got blown out in the second. Almost identical script this year as last. Coaches, if wanting to keep their job, will get back to what worked for them. Ball control through a ground game and tough defense. Having Flaccco throw 55 times is a guaranteed loss. 5) Everyone who is calling this guy a bust is a child with no successful experience playing fantasy football. It’s been two damn weeks. There is no preseason anymore. I wouldn’t seriously judge a players situation until week 4 these days. 6) Everyone who is calling this guy a bust... here are some names that Collins’ week 2 performance would have outscored in week 1: Mixon (week 2), Mcaffery, Hunt, Fournette, Freeman, Cook, and Of course, Bell. Are all these guys bums too? Jesus, this place.
  14. 25 points
  15. 25 points
  16. 24 points
  17. 24 points
    Packers fan here -- much of my Packers prognostication turns out to be wrong (or, at least, if correct, it takes some time to reveal it as such), but I think the threat of Aaron Jones making Jamaal Williams unstartable or at best a flex play is misguided. I'll try to keep this short: training camp is chock-full of coachspeak that means little to nothing. Mike McCarthy is not immune to this, but he is among the coaches who is least likely to heap praise on an undeserving player, and he'll even occasionally call out underperformers through the media. Aaron Rodgers fits this mold as well: when there's someone he sees performing at a high level, he lets the media know; when he sees players underperforming, he also (usually subtly) lets the media know as well. Brief examples: following Davante Adams' rookie year (mostly uneventful outside of a few big games late in the year as he spent the season as the #3 WR behind Jordy and Cobb), McCarthy called Adams the "MVP...[of the offseason]" and, from the linked article: Of course, in 2015 Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in the preseason and the Adams hype-train took off, only to be derailed by a Week 1 ankle injury that hounded him all year, particularly brutal for a WR whose defining quality is his elite release skills from the LOS. He played at well less than 100% (limping off the field not uncommonly to get re-taped up), his ability to create separation suffered, he'd be inhuman if his confidence didn't waver, which directly or indirectly resulted in a lot of dropped passes, and many Packers fans and probably a good deal of analysts as well were ready to write him off as a bust already without taking these factors into account. Well, healthy Davante has had no problems with drops and has delivered on every ounce of promise, albeit more than a year later than hoped, that Rodgers and McCarthy saw in him. The only other "offseason MVP" McCarthy has publicly declared was DT Kenny Clark following his rookie season in 2016. Clark went on to finish 2017 as a top-10 DT (based on PFF) and one of five interior DL to finish top-21 in both run-stopping and pass-rushing (per PFF again). [Sidebar: I'm sure there are some quotes someone can dig up about McCarthy complimenting Brett Hundley and we can see how that turned out, though I personally don't believe we've heard the last of Hundley as a productive NFL QB...no doubt he performed worse than the Packers' coaching staff and I expected him to, and had more downs than ups (needing OT to beat the Browns and getting shut out by the Ravens and Vikings to name a few) but also showed some undeniable flashes (nearly beating the Steelers, showing the ability to perform in the clutch with his game-winning pass in OT against (sigh) the Browns, to name a couple) -- in short, considering some of the defenses he faced (7 of his 10 games where he got appreciable playing time were against top-10 defenses), an uneven performance like what he displayed in his first extended time as a starter isn't a death knell for his career; ask Goff, Peyton Manning, Marino, and many other. OK that was too long of a sidebar -- Hundley will be back, is my point, and it just might be as a starter somewhere.] The offseason has a lot of coachspeak, of course. And it's a lot more productive to listen to a coach speaking negatively about a player than it is to hear them say "best shape of their life" and other coaching platitudes. With that said, Mike McCarthy (and Aaron Rodgers) are generally much less susceptible to "coachspeak" or complimenting the play/development of players who are undeserving of it (e.g. Rodgers basically throwing shade at the three WRs the Packers drafted with how glowingly he complimented Jake Kumerow (and how he flat out mentioned the rookie WRs need to look at Kumerow to see how they need to perform in practice if they want to gain his trust, without which they will not succeed in the NFL). Back to coachspeak: you'll be hard-pressed to find a player McCarthy has been more vocally complimentary of this offseason than Williams. Quotes like (from here): As a side note, the only two other guys I've heard similar (though less extreme) statements about from McCarthy this offseason have been S Kentrell Brice and (***fantasy relevant***) Jimmy Graham (Rodgers has also been vocally complimentary of Graham; I can't recall to what extent this contrasts his public statements on Martellus Bennett last year or Jared Cook the year before (though Cook performed when healthy; and if you ask Bennett, he wasn't healthy the entire season) -- and Rodgers has notably been critical of the trio of WRs the Packers drafted (though complimentary of Geronimo Allison) so he too is not one to dish out compliments when he doesn't feel they're deserved). So back to Jamaal Williams. As you're probably aware, he's far-and-away the best pass-blocking RB on the Packers' roster -- completely different ballpark than Jones or TyMont. Fifth-best in the NFL, as a rookie, last year, according to SIS. I mean, just look at this identification and execution of a difficult block of a free blitzer coming from as far from where he's lined up as possible. And believe me, you cannot underestimate how important pass-blocking is to a team that: A) has very recently seen what happens when their QB gets injured, and will prioritize players/schemes to prevent that as much as possible in the future, and B) runs a complex offense that has lost some key veteran offensive line cogs in the past few seasons (Lang and Sitton) whose continuity (along with the rest of the O-line) is an undeniable advantage in pass protection effectiveness. So there's reason to believe Williams is the preferable RB for the Packers to have in the game on 3rd-down passing situations (if they have a RB on the field -- can split TyMont wide, or keep Marcedes Lewis in to block if they're finding their O-line giving up a lot of pressure). Two more final thoughts: 1. I think Williams' skills as a RB are dramatically underrated. When you watch Aaron Jones, he seems to "pop" -- shot out of a cannon, some would describe it; more "explosive," certainly. Reminds me of Christine Michael during his brief time with the Packers (haven't watched a lot of him elsewhere) -- goes from 0 to 60 by the time he's got the ball, but seems to lack the vision to be a successful NFL RB. I love what Jones offers as a change of pace due to that "thunder and lightning" element he offers along with Williams. But a recent podcast I heard talked about Jordan Howard and why he's been so successful despite lacking the breakaway speed or, at least to my knowledge, freakish athleticism that gives him the elusiveness of guys like Kareem Hunt (or Jamaal Charles in his prime). The analyst on the podcast talked about how Howard knows how to run in traffic -- surrounded by bodies, some of whom are your teammates, most of whom aren't, but knowing how to move your body in relation to these other massive bodies (subconsciously predicting THEIR movements, while simultaneously physically breaking imperfect tackle attempts, etc.). I don't know if "vision" is the right word because that implies identification of cutback lanes (which a RB can also possess, but is not exactly what I'm talking about), nor is necessarily "patience" -- "feel" seems like a more accurate word. Essentially, Howard can get 3, 4, 5 yards per carry nearly at will due to his skills in this "feel" attribute, and I think Williams possesses it as well. Of course, an open running lane doesn't prevent him from getting a whole lot more than 3-5 yards, but (without looking up the stats and just going by intuition here) I feel like Howard is a guy who doesn't run for negative yardage all that often, and I think Williams shares this "feel" attribute of Howard's running style (though he's got more going for him than just that). (Side note: Williams and Howard have identical 40 times: 4.59 sec). I love Aaron Jones and think he plays a role in this offense when he comes back (I'm more skeptical of TyMont -- I think he's going to be more of a hybrid RB/WR this year than true RB, but that's pure speculation). 2. And one final thing: back when the Packers were producing single fantasy-relevant RBs (essentially one or two years of Lacy), remember what was a HUGE part of their game? Here's a hint. TL;DR: Draft Jamaal Williams and don't worry about him -- he's gonna crush it unless he gets injured.
  18. 24 points
    I know it’s small sample and meaningless, but that 162 game average ???: .339/.431/1.002 114 runs /29 HR/76 RBI/ 10 SB (Side note my wife walked by and asked who I was typing heart eyes to. I told her it was a 19 year-old’s baseball stats. I think she wishes I was cheating on her).
  19. 24 points
    Acuna was one of the most talked about and anticipated players in the minors before his call-up, and somewhat strangely I haven’t heard a ton about him since. Thought I would give a quick update on what his numbers are looking like under the hood! He’s currently hitting .260/.324/.450 with 4 HRs and 2 SBs in 111 PAs. He’s supported that line with an 8.1% walk rate and a below average 27% K rate and overall he’s posted a 111 wRC+ to this point. The K rate stands out in a negative way, and I’ll go into more detail later but I just wanted to point out that his swinging-strike rate is actually about league-average so the high K rate isn’t a bat-to-ball skills issue. Taking a look at Acuna’s batted ball data, the first thing that stands out is that he’s hitting a very low amount of line-drives at just 11.3%. That’s odd because all last year over 3 levels in the minors, he hit line-drives at an above-average rate and that was good because line-drives are the least likely form of batted ball contact to be turned into an out. Among hitters with at least 100 PAs, that ranks 4th worst in the majors and that’s arguably holding his BAPIP and therefore batting average down somewhat despite posting a reasonable .328 BAPIP currently. His groundball rate is sitting at 47.9% right now which is the 63rd highest in the majors. His flyball rate is at 40.8% right now and that’s a good mark and should let him rack up HRs with his plus plus raw power. Acuna is fairly pull focused, but not overly with a decent 42.3% pull rate. What is interesting is that Acuna is posting by far the lowest opposite field contact rate of his career at 15.5% when he’s typically averaged between low-mid 30% opposite field contact in the minors. The lowered opposite field contact rate has resulted in a very high 42.3% centerfield contact rate which ranks as the 16th highest mark in the majors right now and tells me that he’s on time a lot at the plate and not late to fastballs. Looking at Acuna’s quality of contact stats, it’s where he really shines! His 43.7% Hard Contact rate ranks 35th in the majors among those with at least 100 PAs and ranks ahead of names like Yoan Moncada, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Gary Sanchez among others. He’s supporting that with a super impressive 93.8 MPH average exit velocity which ranks in a tie for 9th best in the majors with Giancarlo Stanton, Robinson Cano, and Matt Olson. According to Baseball Savant, his % of ball hit 95+ MPH is 52.1% and that ranks 14th best in the majors. He’s also barreling the ball at an above-average rate of 8.1% per PA which ranks 61st best in the majors. I also want to point out that his current 9.9% soft contact rate ranks as the 13th best in the majors right now. Essentially, when he makes contact, he hits it hard and that’s super impressive considering his lack of MLB experience and the fact that he can still add more strength as he matures more physically in the future. The power ceiling on him going forward is immense Let's take a look at Ronald Acuna’s plate discipline metrics: His out-of-zone swing% is 31.3% MLB average is 29.9% His zone swing % is 70.9% MLB average is 66.8% His overall swing % is 47.4% MLB average is 45.9% His out-of-zone contact % is 60.2% MLB average is 62.5% His zone contact% is 89.9% MLB average is 85.2% His overall contact rate is 78.3% MLB average is 76.8% His % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone is 40.7% MLB average is 43.2% His swinging-strike% is 10.3% MLB average is 10.6% As you can see, Acuna expands his zone slightly more than league average, and that’s not a great thing as his out-of-zone contact skills are about 2.3% worse than league average right now. The good news is he’s aggressive on strikes which tells me that he recognizes them, and is 89.9% zone contact rate is well above-average which shows that he doesn’t miss too many of them! I find it interesting that he’s seeing fewer strikes than league average, that tells me that either MLB pitchers are scared of him and showing respect, and/or they are trying to get him to chase and get himself out. Regardless, his swinging-strike rate is about average (actually 0.3 above-average) and that’s really impressive for a guy with that little MLB experience and for a guy with that sort of bat speed. That bat control combined with the very impressive quality of contact numbers is what makes him special IMO! If he can tighten his strike zone further in the future and force pitchers to come to him, he will hit a lot of HRs!!!! Honestly, there’s a ton to like about Acuna and I’m so excited to see how he does ROS and in his career. He’s got a special combination of crazy bat speed that generates really impressive quality of contact numbers, and bat control. Add in plus speed on the bases and he’s a 5 category player in fantasy with a huge ceiling! He doesn’t have any platoon issues or anything, and Statcast thinks he’s underperformed some with an xAVG of .269 and xSLG of .526 compared to his real-life numbers of .260 and .450. I think we’ll likely see some ups and downs over the course of this season, but the raw skills are undeniable and not many guys in fantasy have a higher upside.
  20. 24 points
    Jose Berrios finally lived up to the hype and produced a very solid 3.89 ERA with an 8.59 K/9, 2.97 BB/9, and 0.93 HR/9 in 145.2 MLB innings in 2017. His rate stats look pretty strong at first glance, and that definitely helped support his FIP (3.84) and xFIP (4.51). Overall, a pretty impressive first full season for Berrios and it has me excited for what he could be in the future. Looking ahead to 2018, I noticed that Steamer is projecting a regression for Berrios with a 4.51 ERA, 8.53 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 1.36 HR/9, 4.66 FIP, and a 4.55 xFIP. So I did a deep dive to see what I could see in Berrios to help me project him going into next year. Looking at Berrios' stuff, a few things jump out. First, he has a great fastball that was worth 11.4 runs above-average, that ranked in a tie for 15th best in the majors with Dallas Keuchel among those that pitched at least 110 innings. That fastball ranked ahead of names like Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Marcus Stroman, and Luis Severino. Berrios also has a plus curveball that was worth 4.5 runs above-average, and that ranked 24th best in the majors among those who pitched at least 110 innings. That curveball ranked ahead of names like James Paxton and Mashiro Tanaka. Both offerings also come with a slightly above-average whiff rate of 11.75% for the fastball, and 14.19% for the curveball. Where Berrios had trouble last year was with his 3rd pitch, the changeup which was worth -4 runs above-average ranked in a tie for 94th best in baseball among those who pitched at least 110 innings with Jake Odorizzi. That changeup also had a below average whiff rate of 7.62. Brooks Baseball has Berrios throwing also throwing a sinker 26.1% of the time that elicited just a 5.56 whiff rate last year. Fangraphs shows it as a sinker curve and grades it positively, but pretty much purely on its groundball inducing nature (47.3% groundball rate on the sinker). Overall I see a guy with 2 great offerings, but he needs to improve his changeup to take a step forward. Lefties, in particular, are a problem without advancement in the changeup, and that showed with Berrios giving up a .257/.357/.427 (.341 wOBA) line against them compared to a .219/.275/.341 (.269 wOBA) line against righties. Let's take a look at some plate discipline numbers for Jose Berrios: Note that all of this data is among those pitchers who have pitched 110 innings last year. - Berrios' out-of-zone swing% of 30.5% ranked tied for 50th with Matt Boyd, Rick Porcello, Jason Hammel, Jordan Zimmerman. Ahead of names like Jameson Taillon, Yu Darvish, James Paxton, Robbie Ray - Berrios’ out-of-zone contact rate of 66.7% ranks in a tie for 70th with Jose Quintana and Jason Vargas. Ahead of names like Jake Arrieta, Taijuan Walker, and Michael Wacha - Berrios’ zone contact rate of 86.9% ranks 71st in the majors last season. Ahead of names like Sean Manaea, Taijuan Walker, Trevor Bauer, and Zach Godley. - Berrios’ overall contact rate of 79.3% ranks in a tie for 65th with Jharel Cotton. Ahead of names like Jeff Samardzija, Garrett Cole, Jon Gray, and Jake Arrieta. - Berrios’ Swinging strike rate of 9.4% ranks in a tier for 70th with Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz, Rick Porcello, and Michael Fulmer. Ahead of names like Trevor Bauer, John Gray, and Jake Arrieta. All of those are decent, but he hasn't shown a lot of top skills at this point and that highlights some lack of upside with Berrios imo. Now this was Berrios' first real extended period at the major league level so I'm willing to bet there's another level there, but he has a ways to go yet before reaching top 25 SP status. Under the hood, Berrios looks very average, and at this point it's hard to project him to return a ton of value at his current ADP (NFBC ADP of 113.88 which is the 27th SP going off the board). Long-term, I remain quite high on the 23-year old righty. He doesn’t bury himself with walks, he has a fastball capable of being the foundational pitch you need for consistent success in this league, a strong secondary offering in his curveball, and flashes a decent changeup (the changeup needs a lot of work though). I also like that he goes deep in games pretty often and has shown a strong ability to go through the order 3 times (.233/.297/.357 line against, good for a .286 wOBA). I also like that he threw 185.2 innings last year between AAA and the majors so he won't have any inning restrictions and looks to be a workhorse on a Twins team that is looking to compete which should help him rack up Wins and Quality Starts. He also pitches in a home park that suppresses left-handed power (Target field has a 0.84 HR rating for left-handed batters, 1.00 is neutral) and pitches in a division that will have some weak competition (Royals, Tigers, White Sox). For 2018, I will project a 3.84 ERA, 1.21 WHIP with 195 K's and 15 wins in 204 innings.
  21. 24 points
    With football season in full swing, and an ever growing Forum population, we'd like to remind the posters that the Main Forum is for posting on discussion for general purposes. This means team-specific issues, rosterbating, cool-story-bro moments - while they mean a lot to the poster posting - they don't fit the bill. There are threads for celebration, venting, cool-story-bro posts - and there is a separate Forum to post roster or team/league-specific issues - the Assistant Coach (AC) Forum. As RW Forums posting volume has increased, so has the # of these types of posts. While it's understandable if it's happened unintentionally - it's also becoming clear the Main Forum is becoming overrun with AC posts, and the above types of posts which are hijacking player discussion. Again, if it's someone learning for the first time, or inadvertent, we get that - but too many veterans are contributing to the problem. We cannot stress this enough, this problem tends to grow exponentially because too many people see others doing it and think it's okay, but this only worsens the issue. Lead by example and use the appropriate threads! The Main Forum is to help promote general fantasy discussion that's usable for the entire community. To keep this focus, for those who can't stop - harsher penalties, including temporary disabling of posting privileges (or longer in the case of repeat offenders following prior penalties) . Hopefully, this won't be necessary - but as all posters agree to abide by the CoC and Posting Rules when they join, notice that AC posting will need to be done in the AC Forum is clearly necessary. Given that the rules are well-known to returning members, we trust this reminder will help returning members keep Main Forum discussion for the community at large and away from AC/team content, and help new members avoid future problems as well. Also, for the newest members: PROBATIONARY MEMBERS - for those of you who have just joined, welcome! While you are in a probationary status, please note two important differences from other members. First, you can't send PM's or receive PM's until you move up to regular member (10+ posts). Secondly, as of 2013, Probationary Members can reply to exisiting threads, but can't create new threads in the following Forums: Main Football Forum (Fantasy Football Talk) IDP Football Forum (IDP Forum) Main Baseball Forum (Fantasy Baseball Talk) MILB Baseball Forum (MILB Forum) Main Basketball Forum (Fantasy Basketball Talk) Please note that probationary members can still create threads in the other Forums, and can reply to existing threads in the above Forums. This will allow probationary members to get their feet wet in the Main Forums, and also help new members avoid posting Assistant Coach / Bench Coach threads in the wrong Forum. As always, take a moment to read the RW Baseball Forum Posting Rules, RW Football Forum Posting Guidelines and RW Basketball Forum Posting Guidelines as this will cover all the areas of posting for RW members. Welcome aboard!
  22. 23 points
    Oh look it’s internet explorer checking in.
  23. 23 points
  24. 23 points
    DISCLAIMER: I'm not trying to excuse this play, but rather try to examine/analyze/critique it to explain what happened. In short/tl;dr: 1.) The play is an option design, not a downfield design. 2.) Trubisky was not staring down Burton. This is a misconception, and if he had seen him earlier in the play, it is hard to know how it would've played out for multiple reasons. 3.) Trubisky's biggest problem in the play was not failing to see Burton open, but rather failing to read the defense and realize that the Called Play had almost no chance of happening earlier. 4.) I also don't believe it helps that Trubisky keeps his head turned around for as long as he does. I don't know where he's supposed to stop this roll-out, but I think he went too far and looped too much. He needs to be tighter. First into the play design. This is really the first time in this play (something I'll cover later) in which Trubisky gets his head around to face the field. The play design here is obvious: it's a basic option design. Trubisky is playing off of Clay Matthews, hoping he can cut it inside or if Cohen can make it to the corner. If that doesn't work, Gabriel is running a safe route on the other side of the field. But the first two reads here are pass-out to Cohen or run it yourself, IMO, with the third being Turbo. I hate this play. I don't know if it's execution or Mitch's footwork, but I hate that he stops HERE. He's roughly 11 Yards from the LOS when he stops. He should be, IMO, keeping tighter to the 10 Yard line. This would force Clay Matthews to make a decision about whether he's going to dive on Trubisky or go after Cohen. You want Matthews to dive after you on this play. The goal of an option concept is to get the defense caught between two decisions, not to catch yourself in between these decisions. I don't know how this play is designed, so I don't know if Trubisky ran it the way he's supposed to. It makes more sense for me to either stop there, or follow a closer trajectory to the red line, staying closer to Clay Matthews and tempting him with bull rushing. Instead Trubisky goes an extra four yards south. That can't happen in this play design, and is the reason the play starts to fall apart IMO, as Trubisky has removed himself so much from everyone else. I'd also like to point out one more thing in this image as I transition to Burton on the play: I think this is what people miss the most about this play. This is the best point to know that Burton is going to be open. The left side of the defense is clearly trying to take away Gabriel's lane, and there's a big gaping hole in the middle of the field... BUT Trubisky, potentially through no fault of his own, has his BACK to the field. He can't know how the Defense is guarding Burton when he's got his back to the field. And again, note the safeties position that Burton is running towards. I think it's simply a misconception that Trubisky really even sees Burton. He's still clearly looking towards Cohen and the pylon of the end zone. I'll show it in the next image, but I believe that part of the reason the image looks SO bad is that the Safety is reading Trubisky's eyes, and following him to the Pylon. If Trubisky sees Burton, and pulls himself away to attack the middle of the field earlier, the safety may see it as well. But before moving on from THIS image, I think this image is actually what shows the real problem. For one, the DC ate Matt Nagy's breakfast on this call. It's a flat heavy coverage and the basic play design is to attack the left or right flat. But primarily, Trubisky needs to be a bit quicker at realizing that with 5 GB defenders in this very limited view towards the pylon, this entire play concept is going to fail. Again, the fact that his BACK his turned to the defense for so long I don't think helps him, but this play is pretty blown to the corner based on how GB is defending, and Trubisky ruins any chance of running it by drifting too far from the LOS. Later in the play he almost considers running, but doesn't think he can make it 14 yards to beat Clay. Maybe he could've made it 9-10. But as a mobile QB at the 3 Yard line, the last thing you want to do is be so far from the LOS that you don't even threaten the TD with the run. So again, play was doomed from the start. Bad call against this defense alignment. Trub probably should recognize that sooner. Look away sooner. But he also got his head turned around late and didn't want to improvise out of the design of the play. If he would've seen Burton earlier, he may have been able to get him the ball, but he wasn't looking that way. And I don't think the Safety does this if he isn't: The safety is breaking AWAY from the open Receiver. Now he doesn't see Burton, but presumably to me that is because Trubisky is still looking in that direction. This is the point of the play where, if he's going to make the throw, it is now. This is where he gets his opportunity. But if he were staring down or charting Burton's route, it would be one thing. But this is the first time the play design has allowed his head to get all the way to the middle of the field. If that weren't the case, I don't think the Safety Breaks so hard towards the pylon. He needs to take in the field better. But he wasn't staring down an open receiver standing in the end zone. I think Trubisky needs to diagnose this play a little quicker, but ultimately I think the biggest misconception is that he's looking at Burton. That camera angle just happens to catch the exact moment he can see Burton, but he hasn't been looking at him. He just brought his head back around. Could he take the shot? Sure. But for a young QB I understand why at this instant he decided to preserve the FG instead of risk the TD. I think he needs to make that pass a bit more instinctually, but ultimately I do think it comes down to the play design. Trubisky didn't want to exit the play design, and so he didn't. I don't think he got aided by having his back to the defense for so long. That's not a very comfortable spot for 3rd and 3. Not the brightest moment, but far from the farce the play seems when you actually review how it broke down. This is Madden logic run amok IMO. If Trubisky could see the whole field like we do on Tape, he'd have known how this play would develop. But he didn't see Burton until the absolute instant he would've had to release the ball. He would've had to see him and INSTANTLY thrown it. What's most likely to happen is that Nagy and Trubisky review this play, and the next time they run it Trubisky understands better that when the flats are looking tough, he needs to look for Burton/to the middle sooner in the progression, and not when it is already about to be too late.
  25. 23 points
    Not sure stringing three Ks together is a good look.
  26. 22 points
    Cool. Tell us what you have for dinner later, too, please.
  27. 22 points
    I don't see the point in worrying about production, game scripts, learning playbooks, volume concerns etc. No one drafts Josh Gordon for safety. He is a complete dart throw lotto ticket. All owners need to hear is that he's off the Browns and with the Patriots. We weren't guaranteed anything on Cleveland so just enjoy the move away from the Factory of Sadness to a legit championship caliber organization with the best HC and QB of all time. His prospects for success have increased dramatically with the move alone in my book. Main thing to worry about for me is his anxiety issues. Anyone who's dealt with sobriety anxiety knows relapse is like the devil right around every corner. I give him crazy props on being clean and seeking mental counseling because that takes major courage and strength to face. You take a shot on Gordon because he's one of the most premier talents you've ever seen. He will win your league if he hits. If safety is more your thing I would trade him immediately because his value might never be higher right now. Otherwise, you hold onto Flash for dear life and accept the fact that you might go down with the ship.
  28. 22 points
  29. 22 points
    Well, he should undoubtedly dominate all the Dominicans and Puerto Ricans.
  30. 21 points
    I'll wait until Alvin Leaguewinner becomes available
  31. 21 points
    Another interesting week that transpired, here is a list of streamer options and potential breakout pickups who mostly have low ownership (under 35% owned) in Yahoo leagues. QB Baker Mayfield - Was one my last week's pickup addition. If healthy, Mayfield has an exploitable upcoming 4 game stretch. He could easily post QB1 numbers in that span. Gets Buccaneers, Steelers, Chiefs, and Falcons respectively before heading into a Week 10 bye. Great streamer potential with bye weeks kicking in. Mitch Trubisky - Streamer potential. Trubisky has back-to-back 300+ passing yards game and a combined 9:1 TD to INT ratio in that span. Gets a matchup vs slow Pats defense this week. RB Peyton Barber - Coming off bye, Barber posted his best game with 13/82 rushing and 4/24/1 TD receiving. More importantly, it seems Barber (not Ronald Jones) is still the primary back in this offense. Only owned 34% in Yahoo leagues, Barber needs to be picked up, if he was dropped before. Ito Smith - With Freeman heading to IR, it will continue to be Smith and Coleman splitting the load. Smith has scored a consecutive TD past 3 games, so ATL do like him in the red-zone. Think he gets a slight up-stick in touches moving forward, not by much, as he should hover around 9-15 touches a game. Marlon Mack - Colts backfield has been a headache all year long, but if healthy Mack is definitely the best rusher on this team. Mack had 89 rushing yards on only 12 carries past week. If Colts are smart I would think they dial up a bit more running plays to keep Luck (averaging 55 pass attempts past 3 games) a little more fresh and help limit Colts' defense time on field as well. Much more valuable in non-PPR leagues as Mack doesn't catch a lot and negative game scripts will favor Hines a bit more. Raheem Mostert - Interesting pickup as the journeyman posted a 12/87 rushing line out of the blue, with Morris and Breida active on MNF. 49ers are not going to have a true workhorse RB this year, as all three RB potentially could be involved moving forward. Don't expect him to usurp Breida's starting job, but given Breida's injury history, I think stashing Mostert over Morris at this point is the better play. Mostert offers that spark and big play ability in the run game like Breida that Morris doesn't. Duke Johnson Jr - Bench stash. Duke had his best fantasy game of the year with 2/36 rushing and 4/73 receiving. Still not enough touches, but made the most of them, especially after it was reported he was frustrated with his lack of touches this past week. Could potentially see a slight up-stick in touches, with Hyde struggling on the ground as of late. Duke could be low-end FLEX play in PPR with bye weeks kicking in. Nick Chubb - Deep bench stash. Chubb had 3/25 rushing past week, and Hue Jackson once again said he's gonna get more carries moving forward. Don't trust Jackson's word too much, but with Hyde struggling rushing as of late, Chubb could certainly push for more carries. Chubb has that breakaway speed that Hyde lacks, and Browns may want to control the clock a bit if Mayfield's sprained ankle is more serious than reported. Doug Martin/Jalen Rishard - Oakland is on bye this week, but Lynch is reported to have a potentially serious groin injury. If Lynch misses time, Martin should be the primary rusher going forward, while Rishard would resume his role as the pass catching RB and sprinkle in a few more carries. Gus Edwards - Posted 10/42 rushing compared to Collins 19/54 in NFL debut. Positive game script helped his number. Could be nothing, but should keep an eye on him. Frank Gore - Not a sexy add at all but became the oldest RB to rush for 100 yards in a game. Gore should continue to see 8-15 carries a game and gets a good matchup vs Lions defense this week. WR Marquise Goodwin - 45% owned in Yahoo leagues, Goodwin was dropped due to early injuries. 49er's best WR, an obvious must add/re-add after MNF explosion. Taylor Gabriel - Still only 25% owned in Yahoo leagues, Gabriel has 5+ targets every game this season and has back-to-back 100 yard receiving games. Him and Allen Robinson are essentially 1A and 1B WR options for this trending Bears offense. Jermaine Kearse - Posted 9/94 on 10 targets past week. With Enunwa's multi-week injury and Pryor hurt as well, I would not be surprised if Kearse leads the team in targets and catches moving forward. Could potentially be a WR3 in PPR leagues with Darnold's tendency to checkdown passes to his slot WR. Christian Kirk - Rosen's favorite target on a weak Cardinals team. Kirk posted 6/77 receiving past week and should continue to provide WR3/4 numbers in PPR. Albert Wilson - Exploded for 6/155/2 TD past week, Wilson has now seen 6+ targets past 3 games. Would not be crazy to assume he is the most viable/safe passing option on this unpredictable Miami team moving forward. Willie Snead Jr. - 7+ targets past 3 games. Snead has hauled in atleast 5/50 receiving past 3 games. Establishes himself as a solid floor, low upside WR3/4 in PPR leagues. Josh Reynolds - Streamer potential. With Cooper Kupp multi-week injury, the former 6'3 200lb Aggie is in prime position to replicate numbers similar to the Rams starting WR trio group in this high octane offense. Damion Ratley - Streamer potential. Another Aggie WR, Ratley had a great NFL debut corralling 6 of 8 targets for 82 yards. Rashard Higgins injury, Callaway's inefficiency, and Mayfield-Landry combo not in sync, Ratley could be in line for another solid game with a matchup vs. Bucs this week. Tyrell Williams - Classic boom-bust WR, Williams erupted in tune of 3/118/2 TD past week. Williams has exactly 3 catches in past 3 games, but what is more important is that Mike Williams is struggling (5 catches for 64 yards in past 3 games combined) so the opportunity to get a few more targets and solidify the #2 WR role is a possibility in a surprisingly run-first Chargers' offense. Tre'Quan Smith/Cameron Meredith - Saints WR who are now off their bye. Meredith offers the higher floor, while Smith gives you the boom-bust element in a WR. One of them may be able to cement themselves as the #2 WR passing option on a loaded team. D.J. Moore - Bench stash. 2 fumbles were killer to Panthers chances of winning past week, but should be noted he wasn't benched and proceeded to have 77 yards on 5 touches. A breakout is coming soon. TE C.J. Uzomah - Streamer potential. Posted 6/54 on 7 targets past week. Locked in for every down TE role, Uzomah has another great matchup this week vs Chiefs. Ricky Seals-Jones - 5/69 last game, Seals-Jones has now seen 6 targets in two straight games. He is a streamer at a weak TE position group.
  32. 21 points
    Was expecting: What I got instead:
  33. 21 points
    Mike Clay‏Verified account @MikeClayNFL FollowFollow @MikeClayNFL More BREAKING: Browns tried to release Josh Gordon, but accidentally filed paperwork signing him to a 5-year, $94 million extension.
  34. 21 points
    There are some brutal takes here. There’s a post on the previous page that provides some good color to what actually happened yesterday. Dixon wasn’t a threat in the least to Collins’ touches yesterday. All of his touches and I think all his snaps came after Flacco, Collins, and a bunch of other starters were pulled 5 minutes into the 3rd. It was 40-0. 40. 0. There’s a division road game Thursday. Pretend that Dixon didn’t see the field because that was going to be the case if the game were competitive. Buck Allen saw a lot of work but we knew a second back was going to see action. Or at least you should have known that when you drafted Collins. Collins saw 18-22 touches over the last half of the year last year. That’s what you’re looking for and he was on pace to get that outside of the fumble* and the blowout. Collins saw 6 carries prior to his fumble then was benched for 2 drives and Buck saw a 3rd drive in the 2 minute drill which would have been his role anyways. Collins also had a 14 yard run negated by a hold, a negative run negated by an offsides, and a botched handoff from Flacco. That’s 6 touches (9 attempted) in the first quarter+ of action. Then he sat because of the fumble/game situation. Then came back out in the second half and saw 2 more touches on the first 5 snaps of the second half before it was 40-0 and he along with lots of other starters were rested. That’s 8 touches (11 attempted) in 23 minutes of game action. Another hot issue for Collins was red zone usage. He had the 7 yard td run. He was in the next time they were inside the 10 as well. And he was in on another series inside the 10 where he caught a pass, had a run, then was in for a td pass to Boyle that was negated by a penalty. He was also in as described in that other post for Buck’s td plunge. Sometimes they pitch that ball wide to Collins after a fake to Buck but there was no way they were going to do that in the conditions yesterday. In summation, his usage was tracking to be the exact same as last year, plus he was in the game for the vast majority of the touches inside the 10. And Dixon didn’t have any run with the starters. These are good things.
  35. 21 points
  36. 21 points
  37. 21 points
    we can't say there weren't signs.....
  38. 20 points
    Oh crap this Rotoworld forums platform just turned the headings into light peacock blue. My eyes are burning trying to read this stuff. Help! Is there a way to go back to old school with heading for threads you can read in like BLACK????
  39. 20 points
    For anyone that hates watching videos for 2 minutes and would rather read for 10 seconds; bud black says "umm" about 1000 times and basically says that hampson and macmahon are trying hard.
  40. 20 points
    > not specific to your team > lists entire team and goes into depth about team Take your dumb a** to the AC forum.
  41. 20 points
    Comparing WR workloads to RB workloads? With a name like Matthew Berry, I'm not surprised.
  42. 20 points
  43. 20 points
    The advancing field of cybernetics begins to produce basketball-capable automatons. Due to a blind spot in the CBA, teams are able to purchase as many robots as they can afford, as they are not required to pay them a salary. Not a single human makes the all-star game, and, as machine learning and neural networking improve strategies and execution to previously incomprehensible levels, by the end of the season no team plays a human in its regular rotation. LeTron J4M35 wins MVP.
  44. 20 points
    I don't think there 's a whole lot to see here on this injury. Tim Riordan, a producer on SiriusXM Fantasy, attended the game NH game yesterday and said that Vlad Jr was in the dugout and moving around good. At one point, he dropped a ball over the dug out rail and hoped over the rail to grab it. That said, because he dropped the ball, the Blue Jays have sufficient rationale to hold him back till 2019.
  45. 19 points
    With minor league Opening Day here, this thread is for providing updates on a daily basis of how prospects performed around the minors. If there are prospects that you are following, feel free to post how they hit or pitch in a game. John Sickels' Minor League Ball did one of these threads for at least a dozen years, but that site was discontinued over the winter.
  46. 19 points
    I can't be the only one who has noticed this right? What I'm referring to is the fact that clearly the RW blurbs are not written by the same person (and understandably so), but shouldn't definitive statements at least be consistent with one another? An example is for Jameer Nelson (I know, he's such a key cog in all of our fantasy teams. READ: sarcasm), but it was the most recent example I could pull: On Nov 13 - 1:24 PM, blurb says about Jameer: "... The 32-year-old is only averaging 7.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.9 treys through eight games, but he's still worth owning in all fantasy leagues as starting point guards don't grow on trees." Then, one day and one game later (Today, Nov 14 - 10:10 AM): "...Given Nelson's minimal contributions to the stat sheet this season, and the fact that he's only averaging 26 minutes a game (crowded backcourt), Nelson isn't worth owning in standard leagues." Since he was already pretty terrible, I disallow the rebuttal that yesterday's game was so bad that it justifies this change. So one day he is worth owning in ALL fantasy leagues, and the next, he is not worth owning in standard leagues. So what changed, did starting point guards start growing on trees overnight?
  47. 19 points
    Well he sucks in good weather...so I can’t imagine he’ll be any better today.
  48. 19 points
    I don't know if this is worth reviving this thread over or not, but just wanted to make a couple personal notes. 1.) I am *finally* about to finish my Bachelors in History and English. Between this and that the Spring Semester got really jumbled for me, which leads me to... 2.) With little work left to do for those degrees, I have begun working on my guide for 2018. Very early stages but with time commitments being what they are, I'm hoping to have most if not all of it done this month, and would expect to release it somewhere in between late-December to early-January. Essentially, finishing research this month, and then writing in the early part of January. I'd never hope to take a step back so I'm hoping that this year's model will be at the very least equivalent to last years' if not more comprehensive. I massively appreciate the positivity I get on this list particularly from this forum. I like what reddit provides me to get more viewership but I'm a big fan of the more... idk... communal? feeling to where I know where the positive comments are coming from... Which brings me somewhat to the last point... 3.) And really I shouldn't even say anything but I figured in the guise of full disclosure I'll be honest about my initial intentions to perhaps monetize. I greatly considered making the 2018 Version with some kind of a paid-content-only model. Part of the reason I'm not longer considering that is that I wanted to get started on this thing a LONG time ago. Essentially I wanted to get started during the playoffs, and I expected to be where I am now around the time the World Series was ending. So, I'm not going to try and do an all-new thing that may or may not work out for me when I don't feel like I have time to properly make a major leap. If I decide to do that in the future, I'm absolutely going to take the time to make sure I go about it the right way. Ultimately, as much as I'd like to find a way to never charge for it in a perfect world, this guide really does just take a considerable amount of my time and have still yet to collect any money from any project I've done. SO, this year I'll release the Guide in a very similar fashion to last year. I'll claim a new thread for the 2018 Rankings and work within that throughout the year. The Guide will be primarily posted with Google Docs linking to other Google Docs in the same Link-Shared format. I may get a site up sometime this offseason but I also may not. That is a new area for me whereas baseball research and writing is not, and new things/formats/etc. are just going to take longer for me to accomplish. What I'm essentially trying to say here (and I VERY much hope that no one takes it the wrong way) is that everything I produce this year WILL be free, but at the rate of content being produced I just can't continue to do that forever. At this age with a Semester off it is still feasible to do this for fun, but that's just not going to be feasible for me as I get older and have my plate load up with other things, including pursuing my Masters in English which I expect to be starting in Fall 2018. So yeah, don't know if I should've just said nothing and posted it when I finished, but kinda just wanted to address that because it's at least on my mind. Like alluded to above, I'm expecting to spend most of December in research. Hoping to be done with my notes around Christmas. Than it's a matter of actually typing it up in a more consumable way. The goal is to accomplish that by the second week in January. And to finish with a Quote and Paraphrase of a bit from the first post of this thread: One of the first reasons I decided to write something like this is so that I could be retroactive and hope to improve on it every year. So I'm hoping that this year's rankings are superior to the previous year. And that 2019 will surpass what I'm producing now for 2018. That's my goal. Cheers