The NY Post said it had sources saying that the Yankees were about to offer A.J. Burnett $80 million over 5 years. That should pretty much lock him up....
Thoughts?

urg, that would lock him up, I don't think he worthy of that kind of contract tho.

Sabathia wants 6 years. Santana got 6 years. Both of those guys are or will make around $23 million a season. I don't think $16 per for 5 locks up Burnett so quickly, especially considering the losers in the Sabathia sweepstakes will immediately turn to Burnett.

You think AJ should be getting money anywhere close to CC or Santana? besides the fact that AJ has had a ton of injuries, and hasn't really put up a cy young type year. How can he look for contract bigger then that? I guess being the 2nd best FA pitcher on the market can do that. I would be grossly sick if AJ can get a 20M a year contract.

If Mussina and Pettite made $11M and $16M last year (or something close to that), Burnett can easily command $16M per.

Look at what guys like Pavano, hell Eric Milton got in their free agent years. Zito was already displaying declining skills when the Giants showered him with cash. Teams are desperate and desperation creates bidding wars. I don't think Burnett deserves or approaches the $23 but $18 per wouldn't surprise me. It also wouldn't surprise me if someone gave him a 6th year on the deal.

Pavano was the top of his FA class and he pretty much got 4 years 40M.

Zito was declining when he got his record contract at the time, but he was a cy young winner that was in his prime, tho he did have 3 sub par years before signing that insane contract. so anything is possible.

as a yankee hater, i love the idea of them spending big money on AJ....

Pavano was a one-hit wonder who didn't have the stuff to cross to the AL in first place. $10 million back then was pretty decent money. Burnett is someone with a rocket arm, a career 1.28 WHIP and almost a K per inning. Yes, there's huge injury risk but it seems teams in baseball don't mind looking like boobs in the latter years of a contract as long as they win in the early years. Burnett could be the addition to a rotation that wins the World Series next year. For that, and to not let a competitor get him, he'll get big dollars. The offer might indeed end up being the best one he gets, but there's simply no way he accepts this early. He has to let the Sabathia sweepstakes play out and then get all the losers in a bidding war. Unless NY is his first choice anyway, I can't see any reason he'd accept before Sabathia is signed.

I think AJ is in a sitution where it might be in his best interest to sign early. The Yankee offer might be well beyond what anyone else can and be willing to offer. If the Yankees close to offer on CC and somehow pull off the offer for Peavy, or sign Lowe then they have no reason to keep the offer alive to AJ. After that the dropoff to the next bidder very well could be 4/60 or something even lower then that.

Maybe it just me I just think AJ has been so overrated. I understand there are days he is totally unhittable and has some filthy stuff, but over his career he hasn't shown much that proves to me he can do that day in and day out. Heck AJ to me is a Oliver Perez.

Yankees have publicly made Sabathia their top priority. So, that means they want Burnett in addition to him. So, signing Sabathia won't change their interest. Now, if Sabathia eschews the Yankees for the West Coast/NL, then you just know Burnett's agent is drooling over a Steinbrenner with a blank check. AJ is not overrated. He's a great pitcher. The problem with him, is you usually only get him for 125-150 innings per year. Yankees with a new ballpark and $80 million coming off the books this year alone can take that risk.

From my understanding the Yankees have offered or were going to send out offered to AJ CC and Lowe. with the understanding that they only want 2 of them. CC + AJ or Lowe would be ideal for the Yankees. now I know the Lowe offer hasn't come out yet, but Hank has said it coming and I assume it will happen. Now if CC and Lowe both sign AJ would be out of the mix I assume.

As for AJ not being overrated, I dunno he seems to get the title of one of the better pitchers in the AL for some time, and I'll agree he has some good stuff, but he has a career 3.8 ERA and his ERA was 4+ last year. He been in the league for 10 years now so he been around for some time. This year he won 18 years(contact year shocker) before this year he was a .500 pitcher, I understand wins and losses are out of his control many times but it still a red flag. His Strikeout numbers are amazing and I won't doubt that but the fact taht he had 4 injuries years in the 10 he been in the league and I'm just assuming the first 2 years weren't injuries and that he was a call up late in the season.

I just never seen the idea that he a top of the line pitcher. not a #2 pitcher in my mind and not #1 pitcher money he asking for. I understand he destoried the Yankees in the past. I don't know I just see alot of games where he gots 7 innings 1 run and 3 hits with 10k then alot of games of 5 innings 6 runs 10 hits and 6k. Some days he will be unhittable and other days he just seems to get tattooed

I hear what you're saying. As a Yankee fan, I'm not thrilled with signing him either. Lowe seems more durable in my mind so I'd rather have him, especially if you get Sabathia and Lowe can essentially be a #3 starter behind him and Wang. That being said, don't read ERA too much. In 24 of his 34 starts, Burnett gave up 3ER or less. Every pitcher is going to have their blow up games (8 ER), especially in the AL East facing the Yankees, Red Sox and now Rays often. The thing that makes me a bit nervous beyond the injury risk is Burnett has zero post season starts so you don't know what he'll do when the pressure is really on. For $80 million, I want a guarantee (as much as possible).

i think AJ is terribly overrated and as a Yankee fan, I hope he goes elsewhere. Of course, we can poke holes in everyone available (CC is overworked, Dempster came out of nowhere, Lowe just kind of sucks until the last month and a half of the season) but all of them are better than trotting ole fatso Ponson out to the mound. I just don't want to ever see that again.
Are they going to sign Pavano for a song? He should work for free for one year. Highway robbery.

After the All-Star break, Burnett was one of the best pitchers in the majors, going 8-2 with a 2.86 ERA while striking out 105 batters and walking just 29 in 94 1/3 innings. In other words, at the end of the '08 season, he was throwing better than he has for any extended period in his career.

Among starting pitchers who threw at least 20 innings against the Red Sox -- and there weren't many of them -- Burnett was better than anybody other than Roy Halladay against Boston, going 2-0 with a 2.60. He had a 3.15 ERA against the Rays, with a record of 1-2. And he completely dominated the Yankees. In other words, the Yankees know he can handle the stress of pitching in the AL East

If his ERA was that good aganist the AL East, just think how bad his ERA had to be outside the AL East to pile up a 4+ ERA....

Yeah, but can he handle the stress of pitching for the Yankees? Throw all the numbers, splits, ratios out there - none of that matters if you can't pitch in pinstripes. Sure he's able to dominate the Red Sox and Yankees, that's because no one cared and for the most part the Jays have been able to contend in the standings since he's been there. Randy Johnson was practically the most dominant pitcher this past decade and was supposed to be the "stopper" to counter Boston's Schilling until he started wearing Yankee blue; dude imploded.

Yankees are better off with a durable, Lowe or Byrd IMO with Wang and Joba as their starters. Sabathia works too.

When a pitcher enters his late 30s/early 40s, you have to forsee the big decline coming -- even when speaking of a pitcher of the caliber of a Randy Johnson.

If you understand wins and losses are out of his control, then why are you judging him with them?



I hope you're not saying there's 60 starting pitchers you'd take over Burnett.

Win and losses are partly out of his control, but they aren't totally out of his control. he has a career ERA of just under 4, that is more or less average. I'm not saying AJ is a bad pitcher, he just not great.

I would say there about 40 starting pitchers I would rather take over Burnett. Yes Burnett could be a solid 2 for a KC or lower tier team, but the Yankees #2 pitcher should be better then that. If you gonna throw 16M a year over 5 years for a pitcher, I would rather it be one I felt good about. AJ might be 2nd best on the market, but that doesn't mean he worth this type of money.

A healthy AJ Burnett is absolutely a #1 starter in this league. Healthy being the key. You can say there's pitchers you'd rather have but the arguments for them are either based on being younger (something AJ can't control) or having a dominant post season resume (something he can't have when he's never been there). Burnett is a #1 starter. There's not 30 more talented starters in the league when you remove age. How much money you receive is always dependent upon when your walk year is. Again, the problem with Burnett is durability. You can say you don't want him because he'll end up like a Pavano, spending more days on the DL than the hill. But you cannot question the talent level. Yankees would be signing a true #1 starter. The only question is whether they are signing him to pitch, or monopolize the medical staff.

I just don't see him close to a #1 pitcher. 10 years 1300+ innings and a 3.81 ERA doesn't scream to me #1 starter. His best year was a 3.30 ERA, only 3 times has he had a under 3.5 ERA, all 3 in the NL and one of them was his rookie year with 7 starts.

AJ not a bad pitcher, don't get me wrong, but he not great. I think I can easily name 25 pitchers that would be no brainer better pitchers then AJ, and about 20 more that are on equal level. I could put him on the same level as Moyer of last year or Garza or Jurrjens. Fine pitchers, but not one I would put as #1 pitcher.

AJ has had games where he totally blows people away he totally unhittable and looks amazing. But given that he not an Ace, heck I'm not even sure he was any better then the 4th best pitcher on the Jays last year

His career ERA is almost half a run below the league average. His K rate is outstanding. Garza has had one good year in his career and you're ready to anoint him as better? We've seen plenty of one-hit wonders as starters over the years. How do you know Garza isn't the next Joe Mays (or insert the zillion other pitchers to have one great year and disappear). You know what you're getting with Burnett. You picking Garza is based on his age and hope for durability. You can't possibly think he's a better pitcher yet.

Pitchers I think are clearly better then AJ
J. Santana
Peavy
C.C.
Big Z
Doc
Lincecum
Webb
Haren
Lester
Dice K
Lirarino
Lackey
Billsingly
Hamels
Sheets
Oswalt
King Felix
Kazmir
Smoltz
Beckett
Danks
Saunders
Cain
Volquez


I don't think any besides the last 4 would really be questioned who would you rather have pitching next year.

The next list is a group who I personally would take over AJ, but I could see the case going either way
Joba
Dempster
Grienke
Nolasco
Garza
Shields
E. Santana
Pelfrey
Meche
Lowe
Moose
Guthere
Litsch
Jurrjens
Hudson
Randy Johnson
Verlander
Bonderman

Wow. I'll leave you with a few points but if that's your list, we really have nothing more to debate:

Smoltz: practically done.
Sheets - all NL stats. You knock Burnett for his NL numbers. Sheets always injured. ALWAYS
Danks? had a 5.50 ERA just a year ago. One hit wonder possibility.
Felix? Same career ERA as Burnett while pitching in one of the best pitchers parks in the league against a crappy AL West.
Dice K - 1.32 WHIP. Is he simply great with men on base or was he just extremely lucky last year.
Cain? Same ERA while pitching in the NL in a great pitchers park? They aren't close right now.
Saunders? silly.

There are so many mindboggling choices in your second list, I can't even address them.

First list... I won't necessarily argue with a single person. Second list, I disagree with 3/4 of it wholeheartedly.

You have to consider several things when a team considers signing a SP from the FA pool:
1) What is your team's SP, how severe is it, and how committed to addressing it are you
2) What pitchers are currently available, and are actually open to changing teams
3) What does the market competition look like.... how many teams (and which teams) are looking to address their own SP needs

When you factor in all of the above, you get the following answers:
1) The Yankees need to address starting pitching is high, and they are very committed to adding quality arms
2) There are only a few pitchers readily available (CC, AJ, Sheets, Lowe)... Dempster already signed with his hometown team
3) Competition is fierce, Red Sox, Angels and Cubs are all in the market for FA pitchers and are all big market cities

Based on the above, the demand is high, and the supply is low... simple economics causes the prices to increase. In a perfect world AJ wouldn't command a 5yr/80m contract, but the market dictates those economics now. Therefore, that is what he is worth.... and that is likely what he'll get.

I'm actually surprised there hasn't been more mention of Ben Sheets in the FA marketplace. When healthy (about 50% of the time) he's an absolute stud with great control and KK/BB ratio. I'd be interested in comparing his stats to AJ's... granted there is a NL/AL effect skewing each of their stats.... but I wouldn't be disappointed if he was wearing a NYY uniform next year as opposed to Burnett, and he quite possibly will command lesser $$$ to acquire.

Good points reddog. Personally, I don't want Burnett as a Yankee fan. Not because he's not a #1 starter but because he's going to be one on the DL a lot over the 4 to 5 years he's wearing pinstripes. I'd rather investigate what it would take to get Sheets or even Lowe. Or, explore the Peavy trade more in depth.

This offer for AJ is exactly what the Yankees need to AVOID. They would be tying up quite a bit of money for quite a few years on a man who is on the wrong side of 30 who has averaged in the last 3 years:
174.3 IP (not great), a 13-9 record (decent), a K/inning (nice), 2.7K/B ratio, a 3.92 ERA (good), and a 1.28 WHIP (fair). He's only cracked 200 IP 3 times since 1999.
I don't know. I just think if they get CC, they should spend less on someone else as a #4 or #5. A rotation of CC, Wang, Joba, Hughes, and perhaps Garland/Ollie Perez (signed to shorter cheaper deals) would be more than servicable.

I just think the Yanks will regret the signing come 2010 and beyond.

Sheets is as healthy as Burnett is. last 8 years Sheets pitched 1400+ innings over that time frame AJ has less then 1300. Sheets has had 3 injuried fulled years I'll agree he not the model of a iron man. but he is right there with AJ. they are about equals in my mind.

Danks may be a one hit wonder maybe not. I'll say fine AJ could be better

difference from Rogers and Safeco isn't that large. according to http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfa...amp;season=2008 slight edge in HR then Roger center but 18 vs 20 isn't big. As crappy as the AL West the Angels are good, and Texas can hit. Texas leads the leagues in runs scored, while the A's were near the bottom.

dice K 1.32 WHIP might be luck that he got out of those jams maybe not. but it not like Burnett WHIP is was better last season either. AJ career whip is 1.28 which is better, but last season had 1.34

Cain and Saunders most likely due to Age any maybe they aren't the best choices, but due to age i did throw them in.

As a fantasy owner of AJ's, my impression is the same as everyone else's - he's a #1 when he's on top of his game but, unfortunately, he's very inconsistent. I get the impression he just didn't care in Toronto (i.e. taking his hat off when the fans booed him, implying he wanted a trade to the Cubs), but that when he was in a big game, he always brought his A stuff. Not saying I love that attitude, but maybe with the Yanks, on the biggest stage in baseball, he's the kind of guy that would be bringing it every time (personality like Beckett in the post-season). Don't forget that he's also been pitching in the AL East the last three years. Most Yankee SP signings come with the - can he handle the big stage & can he handle the AL East question marks. I think he can do both.

That said, he's still a gamble. Both because I can't be sure he'd be more inspired to bring his A game every day, but more importantly because of the injury risks. But what I'm (and most Yanks fans) are expecting is we sign CC. Then you got CC and Wang at 1/2, and you're looking for a #3 to bridge to Hughes/Pettitte/Moose/Joba/whoever's there. I'd much rather have a solid #3 with CLEAR #1 upside than Lowe - a regular ol' #3 in the AL East at this point, but commanding a $16mm/yr contract to carry him into his 40's?

Yeah, AJ's a gamble. But for the first time in practically 10 years the Yanks are in a position where they can afford to gamble again. Let's just hope they don't put it all on green again.

I bolded everyone I disagree with. The rest, let's compare their contracts when/if they hit FA to what AJ gets this offseason.

In your second list, I thought the most interesting entry was Greinke. I think of him like a young AJ - he's got the raw stuff (different pitching style) - but can he conquer his demons and dominate regularly? In a few years we may have this same argument about him as teams are gearing up to throw numbers in the mid teens over half a decade at him. That assumes he puts it together for a few more years.

Dice K- same type of pitcher. high WHIP/high BB/high K
Liriano- yes, but he has less of a chance of staying healthy
Sheets- averaging under 150 IP over the last 3 seasons. AJ averaging about 175.
King Felix- MUCH better pitching park with similar stats. also unable to last a full season. better upside, but hasn't put it to use yet
Smoltz- can he even pitch a full season again?
Danks- one season, and you're labeling him better? not buying it
Saunders- lol. nope
Cain- just as inconsistent as burnett, but at least he's a workhorse. still, nope.
Volquez- lol. he WAS better for half a season. not anymore.

that leaves your list at 14 pitchers. top 15? maybe not, but you can't list many more pitchers that are arguably better. top 30? definitely. 30 teams. top 30 pitcher.

yeah, he's a #1 if healthy. that's a big if, but he's at LEAST a great #2

40 Million per year to Burnett and Sabathia? It has to be a blast to be a free agent in these times.
Gotta love baseball, capitalism at its finest.