Can he take a step up this year and be elite? Is 1300 yards and 14 tds possible? How do we feel about ricky williams this year playing spoiler?

I thought last year he was set up blow up in the 2nd half of the year, I traded for him and he didn't do a whole lot. I think it's only a matter of time before he regains fantasy stud status, he's too good not to, but it wouldn't surprise me if had another mediocre season this year. Still I'll have a really hard time passing up on him if he's available when I'm picking in the 3rd round.

I think he's pretty underrated going into this year due to people fearing the wildcat with Pat White and Ricky Williams, but everything I have read has lead me to believe he is going to be a feature back in Miami. I think the 3rd round is a great value.

I am thinking late second or early third. I think he really has the potential to be a steal and produce as a top notch # 2RB or a low end #1.

My concern about Ronnie (and about all non-Pats AFCE players) is that Miami's stats were inflated last season by playing a ridiculously easy schedule-- fully half of their games were against the "What, Me Tackle?" AFCW and the NFCW. Mainstream fantasy analysis tends to ignore past schedule as a factor, and thus has people basing their predictions for guys like Brown, T. Jones, etc., on their production in a very fluky year.

That said, I believe in Brown's talent (which puts him well ahead of someone like Ryan Grant), and I do have some trust in the reports that he'll have more of a lead-back workload in 2009. Tentatively, I like him in the 3rd round, around when the lesser of the NFCE backs are going.

Ronnies stats from last year were really blown up by the one game against NE w/ 5 td's... My fear is that teams(like they always do with gimmick offenses) will catch up with the wildcat. And considering Miami QB's are going to struggle throwing the ball 35 yards down the field, they will LOAD up on ronnie and ricky. As of now, there is zero threat of throwing downfield in miami. Gotta have some type of threat. And like i mentioned before, i dont expect the wildcat to be a factor at all. Coaches are too smart not to figure those gimmicks out, otherwise the run-n-shoot would still be around

The stuff about Pennington gets repeated so often that nobody stops to notice that it isn't true. Chad's 2008 stats on passes that went over 30 yards in the air: 6/9, 255 yds., 3 TDs, 0 INTs. Arm strength limits some of what he can do (he can't throw a 70-yard rainbow, but how much did that particular skill help Kyle Boller?), but it doesn't mean that the opposition can just attack the LOS on every play.

i think he'll do what he did in the 2007 season when he got hurt

I agree, Pennington is a pretty good game manager. He may not throw bombs but he can hit the open receiver down the field. Ronnie should have room to run. What kills him is doing too many runs out of the wildcat. Defenses start to catch on to that.

What killed him last year was lack of touches. You just can't rely on a back that has as many 10-15 carry games as he did.

I think Ronnie will have another great year for the 'Phins. Ricky williams needs to go.

What do you guys think about Ronnie Brown this upcoming season? I'm very bullish on him this year as well as a lot of the fantasy analysts. Hes' currently ranked around the mid 20's in ADP (non-PPR leagues).

Anyone but me think he's going to have a 1400+ YD season with 10TDs?

Contract year. Big numbers are on the way, especially with a year of the Wildcat under his belt.

My main concern for him is that his team has the league's toughest schedule this season.

Good thing Miami only runs the Wildcat 3 or 4 times a game.



It's already not a factor. Miami kept using it because it forced teams on their schedule to devote time in that week's practice to defending it, meaning they had less time to devote to stopping the base offense.

Ronnie Brown will be solid this year. He's an RB2 who's a threat to put up RB1 numbers assuming he gets utilized correctly. For all of Cam Cameron's faults, he seems to be the only professional head coach who could figure out how to get Ronnie involved in the offense, thus Ronnie's monstrous 2007 season and his great performance in the Pro Bowl earlier this year. (Cameron was the AFC's OC.) It looks like Sparano and Henning are ready to unleash Ronnie now that he's two years removed from his ACL tear.

He only topped 20 carries in 2 games last year...No doubt he's talented, but that is a severe lack of usage...

Apparently, Ricky Williams does not look that good and although he isn't going to get cut, the fact that it is even being considered should say something about his condition. I'm still high on Brown.

I'd chalk that up to his recovery from ACL surgery. His workload should increase dramatically...

Good point...I may have to target him in the 3rd...he could be a difference maker

I know that in '07, he was our league leader in points by a large margin when he went down. Killed me...well that, and Larry Johnson that year but, I digress. I'm looking at him this year...if he falls to me, I'll take him...but, I'm hoping in the 4th round.

I think we all know what Ronnie Brown brings to the table skill wise. He's a powerful RB with adequate speed, and he is excellent in the passing game. He's over a year removed from ACL surgery, so Miami should be more inclined to use him more. We also know that Ricky Williams is getting older and appears to be showing his age in the preseason.

I nabbed him in the middle of the 3rd round as my RB2. I see good things for him this season. While Pennington doesn't possess a cannon and they don't have a bonafide deep threat, they have a nasty run blocking line, an accurate QB, and sufficient threats at WR to move the chains.

I do worry a bit about the defense, but I don't know much about their defense.

If you guys play in competitive leagues, there's no way you're getting him in the 4th round. You can aim for him early-mid 3rd round. If you pick late 3rd round, you probably have to take him in the 2nd if you really want him. I'm not justifying that, but just saying.

His playoff schedule is pretty darn tough.

Week 14: JAX
Week 15: TEN
Week 16: HOU
Week 17: PIT

These aren't top 5 defenses maybe not even top 10. HOU looks good on paper but it never pans out. TEN lost their big man on the line. JAX I am not so sure what to think.

I think using last year's defensive rankings during this season's playoff weeks before the season even starts to disqualify a potentially good player is a poor way to evaluate fantasy value.

Nothing against you personally whatsoever, I just don't agree with this line of thinking at all.

Strength of schedule is so wildly overrated. It measures the strength of last season's teams, not this season's teams. And as we all know, teams change wildly from year to year. But if you really want to play this game...

JAX: tied 13th in rushing D last year, 106.8 ypg.
TEN: 6th in rushing D last year.
HOU: 23rd in rushing D last year, 122.6 ypg.
PIT: 2nd in rushing D last year, 80.2 ypg.

The only vague difficulty for Ronnie Brown on this schedule is the TEN game, but it remains to be seen how the Titans can handle losing Haynesworth. (I know he missed two games last year, but they were at the end of the season against two passing teams, PIT and IND. Yes, PIT is a passing team these days.) JAX is middle of the road, HOU is bottom rung, and PIT will very likely be resting their starters in week 17, so they won't be nearly the threat they normally are.

So what exactly is the cause for concern?

no one has their fantasy playoffs in week 17 in any worth while league anyway

bumping this thread to see if anyone has heard how miami plans to use ronnie this year? is he going to be a horse or used sparingly again? last year i got him and it was an awful ride couldn't start him and could not drop him...got him in every league so far so hoping they are ready to use the heck out of him....

Apparently he has looked GOOOOOD this preseason. People are saying he is looking healthier and faster as ever. On the flip side, people are saying Ricky Williams is looking as slow and as old as ever. I wouldn't be surprised if Ronnie is the work-horse this year. Williams was just recently signed for a 2-year end-of-his-career contract. Ricky will be used this year, but my guess would be as more of a breather-back for Ronnie. I expect Ronnie to be a steal in fantasy drafts this year. Oh, by the way, that offensive line of the Dolphins...only getting better.

Agreed. For these reasons alone, I grabbed Ronnie in all leagues.

The history of this injury and the time table to full speed is documented. See Edge year 1 and year 2 removed from the same injury(there are others but it's a hoiday weekend and my thinking is pretty cloudy). I think Williams as a quality back up here only helps. Doesn't force Miami to beat Brown to death. I'd love to see 07 numbers but realistically i think it will be an average of 07/08.

2 years removed from ACL surgery. Expect a sure uptick in his explosiveness. The physical therapist in me says so.

i still don't get all the wildcat hype. it worked in ONE game last year. miami played baltimore like the next week or week after and they shut it down.

i don't get the wild cat hype either, esp. since ronnie can be a fantasy monster if just given the right amount of touches and used as a work horse...i.e. 2007 pre knee injury...no wild cat and a fantasy monster.....

Just took him with the 6th pick in round 4 of a 12 teamer as my RB2 behind DeAngelo, and ahead of Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Needless to say, I'm loving him at that value especially with Dre and Ocho as my WR1 and WR2 with Driver and Mason sharing WR3 duties and a shot at finding some boom picks in Josh Morgan and Sim-Walker.

Which people are you talking to? Ricky has looked just as good he's ever been. He's been able to turn corners, he's still got that great vision, and he's in excellent shape. That's not knocking Ronnie, I just think you've arrived at a conclusion about Ricky Williams that the tape isn't telling. There's a reason Ricky just signed a second contract extension, and it's not because he's "slow" or "looking old." Just the opposite.

Before the preseason began, it looked like Patrick Cobbs would steal Ricky Williams' carries and I thought there was no real handcuff for Ronnie. Not anymore. Take Ronnie in the 4th, and be confident in Ricky Williams as his handcuff.

It's rotoworld:

Dolphins signed RB Ricky Williams to a one-year, $4.35 million extension through 2010.
He plans to retire after the deal. Williams can now collect $7.75 million over the next two seasons, although it's doubtful any of the money is guaranteed. The Fins appreciate Williams' versatility and work ethic, but he's been unimpressive in camp and the preseason. The extension is not an indication that the 32-year-old's role will expand. Ricky appears to be losing a step.

Ricky Williams ran for 31 yards on 10 carries in the Dolphins' exhibition opener Monday night.
Just two of Ricky's runs went for more than two yards. This won't diffuse speculation that Williams has lost a step. Miami's "starter" at this time last year, he's declined into a late-round Ronnie Brown handcuff at best.

Ricky Williams is "32 years old and starting to show it" on the practice field, according to ESPN's Tim Graham.
We'll find out Monday night vs. Jacksonville. Coach Tony Sparano said early in camp that Williams is "ahead" of where he was last year, but unbiased observers claim otherwise. Ricky isn't known to be on the roster bubble.

ricky can probably still muster out 120 decent carries...but sparano said he wants ronnie more involved in the passing game. 247 touches last year. i say that number heads up to 260 carries, 50 catches this year. if u think thats alot..its 15 carries, 3 catches a game. id say his final numbers hover around 1100 rushing yards, 400 recieving yards, and 8total tds

Then I disagree with Rotoworld's assessment and their "unbiased observers." (ESPN unbiased? In what universe?) He's not the 2003 Ricky Williams, but he's never been the same since that season. Still, he's looked solid enough to warrant a contract extension. Again. Clearly, Sparano, Ireland, and Parcells see something there to warrant keeping him around and ahead of Patrick Cobbs.

I like Brown to put up:

265 car, 1150 yds, 8 td's

54 rec, 400 yds, 2 td's

1 passing td

If the td's(somewhat luck-based) increase to 13 total, he's a 1st round value!

grabbed him as my RB2 behind Deanglo in a 14 team draft. He was alot better than the RB 2's still out there (Ward, Lynch, T. Jones, Bush, Addai)

you wrote it....read it again.

Where exactly did you see/hear that Ricky looks just as good as he 's ever been? Turn corners? seriously? Ill give you the "great vision" part of your post...because i have been high before. LOL.....but C'mon...Ronnie has clearly separeted himself this preseason and Ricky has only proven that he is nothing more than a CAPABLE BACKUP.

I did... early in training camp, before his preseason performances.

Going into TC, the Dolphins wanted to get Patrick Cobbs more involved in the base offense, mainly by sacrificing Ricky's touches. That changed as a result of Ricky's performance in camp and in game situations.



I actually bothered to watch Dolphins preseason games and read training camp reports from the Sun-Sentinel (Omar Kelly/Mike Beradino) and Miami Herald (Armando Salguero/David Neal).



Ricky has proven that he's still capable of playing well, has fended off the challenge from Cobbs, and has secured a second contract extension. You don't get your contract extended by playing poorly.* Period.

* Unless you play for the Raiders.

ok...

so again...all you have argued to prove is that Ricky Williams is a good "backup" RB. He has nothing close to what it takes to be the "man" in any offense. Ronnie will be the man this year....and his very capable "backup", Ricky....will keep him fresh all year.

When did I say Ricky would be The Man in the Dolphins running game? Where exactly are you getting this assertion from?

Rotoworld cited ESPN to say that Ricky looks old and slow. I cited his actual performance in TC and preseason games to refute that. Going into camp he was in danger of losing carries to Patrick Cobbs. Coming out of camp, he's improved his status on the team and has earned a contract extension. Of course he's the backup to Ronnie Brown: who the heck is contesting otherwise?

I'm not exactly sure what you're taking issue with.

Probably just the implication that Ricky will cut into Brown's carries in any meaningful way - if that wasn't your stance, then it's a nonissue. But if it is, I for one believe that Ricky's role will be substantially reduced going forward, enabling Brown to contend for RB1 status.

I'm not sure how that implication could come through in what I've posted. Ricky is the backup. Ronnie is The Guy. All I'm saying is that the description of Ricky as being old, slow, and generally unimpressive is inaccurate based on what he's done over the last month.

Really not sure what the controversy is here.

i am so disappointed i only got him on 1 team.

Do not read amything Armando Salguero writes. The guy is a worthless columnist.

With that being said, as a Dolphins fan and a Ronnie Brown fan, I do think Ricky is going to have between 5-10 carries every week. Why? I'm not exactly sure, the only thing I can come up with is that it keeps Ronnie somewhat fresh for the end of the game. I just don't see Ricky have any burst left (I have also watched every preseason game). In my opinion, Ronnie should be getting 85% of the carries. The guy is in a contract year and I just don't see the Dolphins re-signing him. He made alot of money with the Phins being the #2 overall pick and at 29/30 years old, it's going to be hard for Miami to justify re-signing him to a big contract.

By my count, last year Ronnie and Ricky combined for 374 carries (160 for Ricky, 214 for Ronnie). The split was roughly 57% to 43% in favor of Ronnie. What do you guys anticipate the split being this year? My guess is that Ricky still gets the ball but it is closer to 70% - 30%. If Ronnie averages the same 4.3 ypc, that puts him at: (a) 259 carries for the year; and ( about 1100 rushing (assuming 374 carries between them).

Folks, let's remember to maintain some civility in the conversation, and not go after individual posters.

Thanks