BASELINE:

-- As a rookie: 268 carries for 1,282 yds (4.8 avg.); 50 receptions for 377 yds; 10 total TDs; 3 fumbles.

-- Workload (and productivity) increased as the season went on.


PRO:

-- No serious competition for workload (until Kubiak hires whichever Denver RB gets cut).

-- On an offense with excellent passing game playmakers.

-- Good receiver (caught 85% of passes thrown to him).

-- Only 23.

-- Non-divisional opponents in 2009: NFCW, AFCE, OAK & CIN, which is probably either even with or easier than last year's (NFCN, AFCN, OAK & MIA).


CON:

-- Size (5'9", 215 lbs.) probably makes him a higher-than-average injury risk.

-- Size also makes him a not-particularly-effective goalline runner. If they spell him with another back, that back might become a TD vulture.

-- Offense is pass-heavy. (Which I don't necessarily consider to be a bad thing, given how useful a receiver he is. But some people may.)

-- Defense (particularly the seconary) still may not be good enough to keep the team out of "shootout" situations.


TENTATIVE CONCLUSION: Should probably go somewhere in the 6-10 range in standard leagues, which is a little earlier than what I've seen as his ADP. What am I missing?

If henry can stay healthy this year then you'll definitely see his goalline carries decrease. If you remember he tired out in about week 12 or so and they gave him a break. I think the texans will be in playoff contention and will want to keep Slaton as fresh as they can.

Who? There is nobody on the Texans roser whose first or last name is "henry."

I like Slaton this year, ahead of guys like DeAngelo and Chris Johnson. He's got 20 lbs on CJ and doesn't split carries, yet there's a lot more love for CJ. I agree with your breakdown, and I'd take him anywhere between 5-8.

Would draft him anywhere after 12...would be a great RB2 with upside to give you RB1 numbers. Pair him with your stud RB and would you have a solid start to your team

In PPR he may be worthy of going 9-11.

I love Steve Slaton this year, but so do a lot of people and he is probably going to be drafted higher than he deserves to be. I think the guy can put up a monster season, but it scares me to pass up on other guys like Westbrook, Jacobs, Gore, and a few others for a guy who has only proven himself for one season.

Cause he has 4:24 speed and can break tackles like no tomorrow. Slaton does't have that kinda speed.

And taking him @ 5 - 8 is too early.

I'm not sure why you're telling me the time, unless of course you meant 4.24.
Slaton has 4.4 speed, which isn't exactly slow, and he's bigger. He's in a more well-rounded offense. And Chris Johnson had exactly one game with 20 or more carries last year, and will likely get little if any goalline work.
So if you want to bank on him repeating last year, feel free. But IMO this is the mistake a lot of people make. You must look at skill level and opportunity and project this year. Not just look at what was done last year. Of course, only time will tell. But I'll stand by Slaton being a much better pick than CJ this year. We'll check back during the season.

Slaton gets more action than Johnson as he has no LenDale-type player to vulture stats. That's why he might be worth more. CJ is clearly the more explosive and talented player. At least, he is to me.

Yo! He meant Chris Brown.

(Props to whoever gets that joke)

Man, Steve Slaton has a ton of talent and upside. But he will be taken to early for my taste. My biggest knock on Slaton is that I remember that guy at west Vir. He was so injury prone it was sick. He didnt just miss multiple games, he would sit out the biggest games of they year for them. So his injury prone status is still in doubt for me. Great rookie year, but before i drop a mid first round pick on him i want to see him stay healthy for one more year. If so, then in 2010 he is a solid first rounder

I think Slaton wont be as valuable as some of you think, I think Kubiak still wants to pair him up with someone whether it be Arian Foster, Jeremiah Johnson, Chris Brown or even Ryan Moats. All of which would more than likely get goal line work over Slaton. Also as mentioned above Slatons injury prone college career still has me 2nd guessing him and wondering if last year was just a fluke or not. Even as a Texans fan I would easily take someone like CJ over Slaton and have been saying all offseason that I think Slaton is in for a drop in production.

Why would any of those players get the goal line carries over the superior back? I agree that they want to keep the guy fresh, but why pull your best back in the big spots? Slaton was solid around the goal last year.

Not really. He had 20 carries inside the 5 yard line, but only got 4 TDs on those carries. An average RB in those situations would produce TDs on 7.9 of them. Now, that's a pretty small sample size, and the nature of the HOU OL/TEs/FB/etc. probably has something to do with that poor return, but, still, it does raise some questions about Slaton's efficacy in short-yardage situations. Being the overall "superior back" doesn't necessarily mean "superior in all situations."

People who see Slaton as a 2nd rounder-- care to elaborate on which other backs should be ahead of him and why?

I go by my eyes, not 20 carries, and my eyes tell me that he's way better than that group of backs. Bring in a true goal line/move the pile guy and we can talk. Moats? Chris Brown? Arian Foster? Jeremiah Johnson? No way am I pulling Slaton on a regular basis for one of those guys.

Slaton is big enough with a low center of gravity and plenty quick to be effective in close.

Slaton has gained roughly 10-15 pounds this off-season (based on reports) in preparation for a bigger workload this year. That in itself will help him be more successful with any short-yardage, goal-line carries... Houston didn't take one RB in the draft so it's pretty obvious to me that they're going to lean on him to take most of the workload. Scrubs like Moats, Chris Brown, or a couple of undrafted free agents aren't going to make a dent in Slaton's fantasy value. Plus, Slaton's hands are better than any of these guys so he's going to see plenty of snaps in the red zone as a duel-threat player.

The guy is a heck of a talent; many forget or don't know that he was a Heisman candidate entering his senior year but was hurt off and on all year that hurt his draft stock in the draft. Houston stole him in the 3rd round; no question about it.

A common first-round decision I've seen in mocks this year has been Gore or Steve Slaton... Tough choice, but my gut says Slaton given the outstanding offense around him.

Slaton is so much better than Gore, that should be easy.

Gore is not a first round talent until he proves 06 was the norm and not the abberation, but that's another topic.

Would they both suck if Slaton snubbed you on an autograph request?

Not sure how one could feel this way given Gore's PPR appeal but yes, it is another topic.

I doubt it. Slaton is pretty good. Gore had a flukey season and everyone is still on his jock. Hard to believe...

Well obviously he is a better talent than those guys, although Chris Brown isnt a garbage player by any means just always injured and we dont know what kind of talents Foster and Johnson will turn out to be. One would also say CJ is much more talented than LenDale yet they give doughboy the goalline work..There is also a reason the Texans kept Chris Brown around even though he missed the whole season last year, if they didnt have a role for him they would have gotten rid of him and his contract just like they did Ahman. They also brought in two rookie backs so that further tells me they want someone to pair with Slaton and I feel whoever that is will get the goalline work or at worst split them.

I think this is Chris Browns job easily unless he gets injured again, obviously this is just my speculation and I could be dead wrong and Slaton could be top 5-10 and getting all the goalline work but I know if I were in a redraft I wouldnt want to count on him as my number 1 back but thats just me.

That is a great statistic Enoch. I remain skeptical though due to the offesnive line and maybe poor playcalling to set up a TD. I've never been a fan of run straigt up the middle 3 times in a row just because we are inside the 5 yd. line. I think I saw this with Slaton last year but I can't remember.

ADP
MJD
SJAX
FORTE
LT2
CHRIS JOHNSON
MICHAEL TURNER
D.WILL
BRIAN WESTBROOK
CLINTON PROTIS
SLATON / FRANK GORE

Ranking those 10 guys ahead of Slaton would put Slaton at pick #11. If someobody opted for Gore, Slaton would fall to #12. (These aren't my rankings, i'm just showing how he would go in the 2nd round). In a PPR format, Fitz, AJ, and CJ may even go ahead of him, pushing him further down on the board. The first round/second round debate could go on forever - it is all a matter of personal opinion and preference. I think we could arugue for him to be taken anywhere from #7-15. In my PPR league I may target him somewhere in #9-12. It depends on my finalized cheat sheat and who others draft.

id rather have slaton rather than those 3...but also think AJ and maybe Fitzy b4 him too...

Kinda agree. but i would rather have CJ424 over slaton.

So you would pick him 7th?

Traded for him in my keeper, hoping for big things from him. He's worked hard this off-season to get more muscle, to me great talent and the will to get better are a very promising combo.

I mean, 10 or 11th ? my math is all screwed up

as i see you meant to say 10th...the answer is yes!

I took him too early in most people's eyes... But I have a man-crush on Slaton... hah

I took him 4th overall, and I'm hoping for Westbrook '06-07 season out of him.

Westbrook - 5'10 203
Slaton - 5'9 201

Westbrook was undervalued his first couple of years also.

latest news is that they are trying to find a complement back for slaton... could be trouble for his value

Hot damn, that's a reach.

Slaton is an absolute Beast, his ceiling his as high as he can make it. Would love to have this guy on any of my teams.

ehhh not sure where you heard that...we thought that during draft but they didnt select one RB...they got 2 good ones from undrafted FA named arian foster and jermiah johnson...they have a healthy Chris Brown and Ryan Moats this year...Chris Brown will prolly be that big back in short yard situations...i think slaton will still be short yard back unless we see him struggle early...

Word is that Slaton reported to camp weighing 224. That's a pretty good size increase for him.

I think a lot of his problems in the redzone had more to do with the playcalling and OL play. I really hope he gets another shot to be the goal line back.

i think he put on the wieght for that reason but he thinks he will lose it b4 the season...

anyway i do hope he gets the call...

Slaton is one of those guys that people are hesitant to trust as their RB1. It's crazy because he put up almost identical numbers to Chris Johnson, but people are clearly higher on Chris Johnson than they are Steve Slaton despite the fact Slaton plays on a better offense. I am also one of those guys, but yet I can't put my finger on why.

Both guys came to camp with added bulk and both guys have question marks regarding their role at the goal line. You presume that both will improve in their 2nd season.

Perhaps someone can tell us why people don't seem to have a problem taking CJ as their #1 back, but Slaton isn't in the same boat? He did have a questionable college career of ups and downs, but it's hard to overlook his rookie season.

sure slaton didn't have a good game sunday none of the texans did....but this seems a little too far, check out the top note

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/8866/n...v.dJP2nDkL.uLYF

makes him sound horrible, and creates huge buy low opp. for anyone who still believes....

That note is absurd. The jets D-line was in Houston's backfield before he even touched the ball, he had no chance all game. The Texans O-line is what should be getting the crap for this, not Slaton.

Ok I get the quickness since people are saying he put on some muscle weight this past off season, I'm not even sure I agree.

But he lost his instincts?

I guess Andre Johnson is a complete bum too now since Houston had a bad game.

Yahoo is the worst.

can you lose instincts? aren't those something you always have?

Very easy to become tentative and not trust your instincts. When you start 2nd guessing yourself you lose your instincts, sort of like losing confidence.

So because he had one bad game this year means he lost his instincts?? Give him a few more weeks.

I would temper expectations this week as well and expect a poor performance from the Texans for a 2nd straight week.

The Titans have a great defense, Schaub isn't 100% yet and there's no way you can build any type of momentum after getting man-handled by the Jets on Sunday. Schaub is the key here, once they get the passing game going, Slaton will succeed.

I'm benching Schaub in favor of Big Ben but as soon as those juicy matchups come up, you'll be happy to have any of the players of that high powered offense. Give it another week...

Titans defense gave up 321 yards passing last week so I wouldn't be concerned about Schaub this week either. Without Haynesworth they don't get nearly the pressure on the QB that the Jets generated last week. Look for Schaub to come back to normal this week and get Andre Johnson much more involved.

The Texans are terrible on the road and it doesn't get easier playing the Titans in Tennesee. Don't see it happening...

Slaton rushed for over 100 yards both games against the Titans last year. Just sayin.

I'm starting Tomas Jones over Slaton. I have no faith in him this week.

1) Coming off a tough loss, the Titans will be fired up for sure
2) They are at home
3) Matt Schaub has a career 60.8 QB rating with 1 TD and 4 INTs in 4 games against the Titans