I have the 11th pick in a 12 team PPR league. Any reason to be drafting Reggie Bush with my second pick?

you're serious...bush #14???

In your specific situation this is assistant coach, but in general I'd say Bush warrants a pick that early if you have any faith that he will stay healthy. His reception total in PPR outweighs any of the guys you'd take before him due to them having a chance to score more TD's. If Bush stays healthy he'll likely surpass 100 catches and that alone will cover the difference in TD's. If he doesn't stay healthy (likely) you will lose that production in those weeks. I can't see him falling past the second round of a PPR league so you're definitely in no-mans land picking where you're at.

Agreed.
He won't make it back to you, but the pick is a little too early.
If you can trade down and improve your draft positioning later in the draft that might work out for you if you want Bush.

You could probably drop as much as 7-10 spots and still get him, but you'd need to get something really good back to drop that far in the 2nd round.

I think it alos depends if your league counts punt return yards and TD's, mine does and he lead the league in points before he got hurt, everyone said I took him to high last year (in the second round) but he was proving everyone wrong till the knee injury. That said I think he carries more injury risk this year than last.

Sorry, I can't tell you to use your second round pick on him but he is worthy of maybe your 3rd or 4th.

In my PPR league last year (1 PPR, 6/TD, 1/10RYDs), Bush was the clear #1 RB until he got hurt. The difference in his value in PPR v. standard is one of the greatest in the entire league. But the problem, as has been stated above, is health. PPR managers confident in Bush's health should draft him starting in the middle of the first round. But, factoring in the realistic possibility of health problems bumps him down to a mid-to-late second round pick, and a bargain anytime after that. Just my opinion, based on three years of PPR.

You gotta realize that Pierre Thomas didn't come on until the later part of last season, so Reggie was lining up as the tailback in alot of games. He is cleary a good/fast receiver out of the backfield but his touches as a back will not be as much as they were with PT the clear RB on the team. He does however see alot of plays and he plays special teams. But I still wouldn't draft him as my 2nd pick

Its all about his health for me....With or without Pierre Thomas, the guy will get enough receptions and carries to be a stud in a PPR league. I just don't completely trust his health.

I would target him in the 3rd. His durability issues and decreased touches will make him a risky 2nd round pick. He could certainly put up the #s but you are probably better off drafting a different back at #14 depending who is on the board. You may also want to take a WR.

he was literally carrying my team last year until he got hurt. i like him a lot, but dont think he will ever stay healthy. if he's there in the 3rd, ill take him no matter what though

There should be no reason you should be drafting Bush with your 2nd pick.... He should be your first in PPR

So the things to consider for Bush in PPR are:

Injury potential. Has played 1 full season out of 3.
Pierre Thomas' increased role.
Return touchdowns counted?
Receptions, lots of them.

I'd love to own the guy, but there are clearly better, less-risky plays available in the early second round and I doubt he'll be there late third round, unfortunately.

As some others pointed out the main problem with reggie bush is his injury concerns. I forsee another year like 2007 when he played in 12 games and ended up getting 73 receptions that year. I believe this is strong possibility but the chances of a repeat of 2006 numbers are far from likely. His highest projections from me is 75 receptions, 150 carries and a total of around 1000 all purpose yards. Remind you i think that is his ceiling with pierre thomas in now and he could very well end up playing less than 12 games also. At my earliest i select him with the mid to late 3rd round pick in a PPR league.

I think this is the correct play. With picks 12 and 14 in PPR, one of them absolutely has to be a stud WR. Could the other be Bush? Sure! In your draft position, I'd perhaps be more comfortable picking a good, reliable RB to anchor that position for you - becaue there won't be one on the second pass for you. Bush is high risk but high reward. But if you want him - take him! Because he won't come back around to you - this is your only shot.

It is a risky pick at that point, but also with a great reward. As said above, Bush in the PPR format is a player with a top 5 ceiling because he gets so many catches. Although Pierre Thomas will possibly be the featured running back, I think Bush will stay on the field playing from the slot, and just moving all around the field. The Saints aren't dumb. Bush is most successful in space and if he gets that space, he will get past 99% of the defenders in a one on one situation. If you believe in him, take him. You have to decide for yourself how much you like him this year and if you believe he'll stay healthy. That's what it all comes down to.

His health is too much of a concern.

When healthy, he's a ppr monster.

Since you're drafting at the tail end, I would suggest trying the WR-WR strategy.

AJ/Fitz or AJ/Moss would be a fine start to your team in PPR settings.

Bush is a 4 - 5 round pick. Has too many injury concerns though. missed the end of the last two seasons with Knee problems.

But when healthy and Brees throwing to him. Reggie is a stud in PPR formats.

I think he would be better off going RB / WR. I would hate drafting two WR to start. WR are a lot easier to come by then RBs...Drafting the best RB at #11 should give him a solid #1 RB. #14 pick should provide a stud receiver though.

Bush is the kind of guy who can win or lose you leagues in PPR. If you take him in the second round to pair him with another stud RB and he stays healthy...You have a great chance to win your league. If he gets hurt early, you may not make the playoffs. IN most legitimate PPR leagues, I can't see him being available in the third round....IT all comes down to DO you feel lucky punk...well do ya?

In PPR, there is no way he's a 4-5 round pick. The question is if you think he'll be healthy. If so, he's a top 10 pick. If not, you need to guess how many games he'll miss and how many receptions he'll get as a result.

In non-PPR I could see him lasting that long.

I understand the health concerns, and I suppose I'm in the minority here, but I think three seasons is too little to write him off as a walking injury. I'm of the belief that with Pierre Thomas likely in the role Deuce McAllister occupied in 2006, there's a good chance Bush holds up this year, as he won't be counted on as the featured back for 16 games.

That said, his touches may suffer, but he's too explosive to disappear. I think 10-12 carries and 5 or 6 catches a game is a reasonable expectation. Based on his career YPC and YPR numbers, those touches would amount to roughly 80 all purpose yards per game. Over 16 games, that amounts to a line of roughly 175 carries and 88 catches for 1,300 total yards, and I think he's good for a touchdown every other game (5 or 6 on offense, 2 or 3 in the return game).

In a PPR format, that all equates to 346 points, or 21.625 points per game (better than any running back put up last year). Maybe that's a bit overly optimistic, and maybe I'm wrong about him being able to stay healthy, but there's no denying his upside. Despite potentially being a role player, he might have more upside than any other player in PPR leagues.

PT is the clear RB on the Saints? That sounds like wishful thinking to me. Sort of like saying that Felix Jones is now the clear back in Dallas. OK, maybe not that much of a stretch.

Still, it's my opinion that Pierre Thomas is getting too much love. The guy was undrafted coming out of college for a reason. Reggie Bush is a special player and if healthy, he'll not be held back much by Pierre Thomas. Nothing against Thomas, who helped me win a league last year, but he's got nowhere near the talent of a healthy Reggie Bush. It's just not close. There's no way Payton is keeping a healthy Reggie on ice so he can get more from Thomas. More likely, to me at least, PT will used to keep Bush healthy as a healthy Reggie makes that offense almost impossible to defend.

It's my opinion that in the event of a healthy Reggie Bush, the folks who may have to worry are the ones who jumped at PT in round two (high risk) and I am seeing more and more of them. Don't forget that PT was too beat up by week 17 (back issues) to answer the bell and he only carried the rock 129 times. One way to value him would be to simply project his stats with 250 plus carries, but I wouldn't be too quick to jump to that type of valuation. The guy exceeded 20 carries only once last year and his TD total was the key to his high point production. He earned them for sure, but touchdowns fluctuate mucho. I'm quite content to let others take the risk with PT.

The way people are jumping on Thomas makes me wonder where Peyton Hillis would be getting drafted had he not popped his hammy. It's a very imperfect comparison, but I think there's a point in there somewhere.

As for Bush going with a late one or high two in a PPR, I can see it, but you have to understand the risks. It's a play to win pick, which I am a proponent of, but I really have no feel for how healthy Bush is going to be.

Last year i drafted Bush in the 5th round. i needed a RB2 and he was the only decent one there so.

Plus Reggie's knees are all messed up and he may slip a few rounds back some more.

I'm on the PT Bandwagon, but I'll also keep the bandwagon in perspective.

I think he's good for 225 carries, 1000-1100 yards, 8-13 total TDs
I also think he's good for 35+ receptions, 350 receiving yards.

He's already had 30+ receptions in a season, so that is not a stretch.
He's already had 12 total TDs in a season, so that is not a stretch.
Thomas had 129 carries last season to McAllister's 107 - you figure PT picks up most, if not all, McAllister's touches...
I agree the TDs do fluctuate, but you are basically doubling the guy's carries and giving him the stripe. He should be able to maintain last year's TD count. (McAllister had 5 TDs and 18 receptions)
So that leaves yards... he's averaged 4.8 ypc for two straight seasons... for the sake of argument we'll credit the New Orleans offense for that lofty number. Let's say the average drops down to 4.4... there's your 1,000 yards.

So what do you have at minimum: 225-1000-8, 25-350-3
Pretty good stats.

What do you have at high end: 250-1150-12, 40-400-4
Very strong numbers.

Yeah, he was injured. Good enough in college to keep future high 1st round draft pick Mendenhall glued to the bench.


It was a wrist, could have gone but they were already out of the playoffs. My friend from NO is convinced it was political, in an effort to not have to deal with the backlash of paying Bush The Bust huge dollars while they had a 15 TD free agent killing it. Take that one as you will.


Just look up his numbers in every game he's had 18+ touches. End of discussion.


There's a point on the end of a stick. That doesn't make it a good one.

Is he being overhyped and overvalued at this point? Possibly. Will he be a top 15 back again? Probably.

You make great points on the value of Thomas. I go with you though in saying he basically replaces what Deuce did last season rather than taking Bush's role down. Reggie Bush is quite possibly the most game-breaking RB in the NFL after AP. He makes things happen. His major issue is that he doesn't make things happen on a carry between the tackles very often. Payton has done an excellent job getting Bush the ball in space. Brees is a great QB, but a lot his value against good defenses relies on Bush being a safety valve that teams have to game plan against. Thomas will get some catches as well, but it won't be in nearly the same situations as the ones Bush gets.

It's really hard to define his role since he's really the only guy in the league that has the skill set that he has, but in a pass friendly Saints offense Bush has a very good chance at being the leading receiver catch wise. In PPR that's unreal. In non PPR it's quite different, but the OP is in a PPR league as evidenced by the title. The only thing I question about Bush's value in a PPR league is health. If you're getting him any later than first you're getting some discount on the health issue since he was easily the top RB last season before he got hurt. As much as I respect the opinions of rotoworlders, I can't respect anyone saying he's going to be 4th-5th round in PPR. Someone will take him before that due to the fact he's likely to be a top 5 guy in your league without injury. He may get hurt again, but are you really banking on that in your draft. If so downgrade Westbrook because he's sure to be questionable for 6 weeks and downgrade pretty much every guy since NFL RB's are the most injured group of people alive.

The back was listed on the injury report as well as the wrist. As for Bush being a bust, time will tell. The injuries could cause him to bust. I love the guy's talent when he's healthy.

As for Thomas' workload, I agree that he's getting more in '09. The question is, how will he handle it? I don't have the confidence that the pack seems to have. I need to see more than I have. More than 129 carries and out week 17. And, if he was out for political reasons, that could be worse than wrist/back issues.

I like the player, but like I said, he's sometimes being taken in round two, and that's really high for what he's done to date in terms of sample size. Hey, maybe I'm just pissed that there's no longer any way I am getting him in round four.

Right now, his ADP in non-PPR 12-team leagues is 32nd.

Good to know. I don't think Bush is a bust, I think he's an incredibly talented football player that can't take the pounding of being the every down back. Hopefully now that Payton's on the wagon regarding Pierre, he'll pound him in the Duece role and Reggie will get 12-15 amazingly productive touches a game, mostly in space. The bust reference was for all the guys on the NOLA blog.



It will certainly become an issue after this year when he becomes a restricted free agent. I think for now, the coach sees it and he's going to get the rock. If he can handle it, all the believers will be right. If not, it'll be the h8rs. Injuries are too variable to factor besides those that have proven themselves injury prone. Or at least lent that appearance to it.



I'd gladly take him 32 in my money league, but I already have him in the 13th round as a keeper. And I pick 10/15/34 so at a 32, I'd miss out on him. Would I take him at 15? No, and in that I agree, there's more potential value elsewhere. Too bad he's not a 38-45 pick, I think he'll pan out to be an exceptional value there.

Now the mission is to find this years Pierre Thomas.

Nice talking with you.

That's really the key. People who were lucky enough to nab him last year got an awesome return in their investment. I used a small FA bid to land a guy who was as good as my three starters at the time (Slaton, LenDale & Thomas Jones) and who bumped Jones and White a few times down the stretch.

Now, you'll need to pay retail or more to get his services, and that's a totally different deal. I think I'm just trying to emphasize that. I have affection for PT because he won me a few games I really needed, but the past is the past and I don't want to get caught paying for that.

I appreciate Winky's assertion that the past will predict the future in 2009, but I also have seen people get burned on these types of extrapolations in the past. I see him as a product of the system more than a guy who would be a serous fantasy threat on any team. Thusly, I worry that changes on the ground in N.O. could change the PT dynamic.

Again, I prefaced this with the qualification that he was sometimes going in round two and that was where I had objections. His ADP of 32 is closer to where I have him. FWIW, that ADP is still rising.

Back to your point. Who is PT 2009? Fred Jackson? Leon Washington? Jamaal Charles? Ahmad Bradshaw?

PT09 is Fred Jackson. Guy is a Top 15 RB this year, mark my words.

EVERYBODY is missing the big thing here. It's called HANDCUFFING!! You can't take Bush in the 1st or 2nd no matter what format and the simple reason is that unless you draft Pierre with your next pick or already have Pierre, then you take far too much risk that 1: Pierre takes most of the carries or 2: Bush gets hurt. IMO, you can't take that risk with your 2nd round pick. The first 3 rounds of fantasy are about eliminating risk. Period. If you take big risks early and it doesn't pan out, then you are cellar dwelling all year. The other risks that you can take have handcuffs that can be had after round 7. You can't take both Pierre and Bush in most drafts, so IMO, no matter the format, you gotta remember that when you take one of them, then you lose the handcuff opportunity instantly. IMO this pushes each of their stock out of the first 2 rounds...particularly Bush who is going to be behind Pierre anway IMO.

I am not sure I can agree with this assessment of Bush. Dudes been in the league for 3 years and has a TOTAL of 1500 yards rushing(Pete had more last year) and 1500 yards receiving. During this time his YPC is 3.7 and YPR is 7.5. Neither are great numbers and the YPC is very bad. And what makes the YPC even worse is that nobody stacks the line versus the Saints....this is a pass first team. Further, over the 3 years, he's only got 20 TDs from rushing/receiving..about 7 a year. That's not being a game breaker IMO. Those are piss poor numbers and the ONLY thing that saves him in fantasy is that PPR. Anyway, I think we are about to the point with Bush that we should forget the guy we saw at USC. The NFL RB is a different guy. He has not translated to the NFL so far....all this said, I still think he goes 3rd round in PPR, but not to me...too much of a gamble.

Don't forget his punt touchdown production.

I can't argue that his production is disappointing given his abilities, but when he is in space I can't think of another guy more dangerous. As far as forgetting the guy we saw at USC, the only major difference is he doesn't have a man vs. boys O-Line to open a hole all the way to the second level on a regular basis. The Bush I see is the exact same guy as at USC once he has a bit of open field room. He's never going to be the red zone or short yardage guy which holds him back, but he gets a TD worth of receptions and his total yards are adequate. If you're in a league that counts PR TD's he scored 9 total TD's last season in 10 games. He was a nice amount ahead of every other RB in PPR leagues before he got hurt last year. If you want to write him off as an injury risk that's not worth taking that's definitely a solid argument. When he's on the field he's an elite PPR RB no doubt about it.

I'll agree with that...when he's in space he's good. I'd just like to see more out of Reggie than that. he's got the talent; he needs to hit the inside holes hard instead of trying to bounce everything outside. I guess I invisioned LT when he came to NO and he hasn't been that guy yet and I don't think we'll ever see more than a GREAT punt returner and mediocre RB. However, I am probably a bit jaded since I took him at #3 two years ago in PPR..which I still say was the right pick then, but whatever. Anyway, I think we'll both agree that he is solid in PPR and he won't ever fall to 4th round in PPR. My biggest argument against him before round 3 is the injury issue, lack of draftable handcuff, playing time issues, and probable lack of goal line carries. Don't get me wrong, I'm okay with Reggie; I would just prefer to have someone who I can handcuff as my #1.5 or #2 RB...

Reading this thread is so fascinating considering the plethora of opinions that Bush elicits. When reading it, I do think some of you are talking about Reggie's fantasy appeal while some are getting caught up in his real world impact. IMHO, from a fantasy perspective, Bush is really only appealing as a top round pick in a PPR format, which is what we're talking about here. However, the post about having to handcuff has a extremely good point and must be accounted for.

Bush has missed 10 games the past two seasons and parts of 3 others, also the number of games he's played in and his touches have declined each year he's been in the league. For a young player, that can be interpreted that either he's been hit with some fluky type injuries that a player of his age and physical shape should be able to avoid with a little luck or that simply he doesn't have the build or pain tolerance to play a full season with a full complement of touches. It's kinda of the same thing SJax owners or potential owners are evaluating except without the upside of a b/w the tackles stud. His best season was really last season and he only played 10 games but scored 9 TDs, so he's shown that he's getting a better understanding of the NFL game or that Payton is getting better at understanding how to use him to maximize his ability to get in the end zone. There is no doubt, when healthy, in a PPR format, Bush is a top 5 player, but can he be relied on? History thus far would say no and that the handcuff principle in order to diversify an owner's risk, that the above poster talked about, makes the investment you would have to make in Bush and in turn Thomas way too severe for the possible reward. The other option is draft him and hope he makes it through the first 4 games and trade him when his value is highest. A risky proposition, but far less risky than hoping he can make it through the rigors of a full season. Also, I don't if it's been mentioned, but he's coming off microfracture surgery. Not exactly just a routine "cleanup" scope. Look at other players in the league and NBA and it's sapped them of their explosiveness especially the first year.

To the posters who say, that he's explosive and looks great in space, that's really irrelevant to a fantasy discussion. That becomes a real world assessment of his impact. Bush is definitely a highlight level player and he is great in space and fun to watch in a way. However, as a real world player, he's absolutely been disappointing bordering on a bust. He was the #2 pick in the draft and you can read all about his stats above, not stellar. He's what Bill Parcells would call a "specialty" player or in other words a luxury player. He's a flashier Dave Meggett. And you don't draft Dave Meggett 2nd in the draft. Doesn't make him a bad player, doesn't make him a useless professional, to the contrary, just means he was a bad draft pick on the field (you can argue his merits in merchandising and notoriety in another thread). Lots of bad picks happen all the time in the draft, it's nothing new.

In space, other folks I like to see as much as Bush? Devin Hester, Joshua Cribbs, AD, and Roscoe Parrish come quickly to mind. Felix Jones may join that company and Dante Hall in his prime was just as fun.

To answer the question, in a 12 team PPR format. Bush should probably be a mid 2nd to early third (18-26), but it's too rich for my blood....Good luck to those still drafting.

Is this the year Reggie Bush establishes himself in fantasy, or is his career really toast...When I look at Bush this year, he offers a lot of potential upside for his ADP...What do you guys think of him in a non-ppr league?

Thats the key right there. Non ppr he is just blah.....I think when he got hurt last year he was leading all players in fantasy points though in PPR leagues. Catching 6 or 7 passes a game for about 60 or 70 yards is nice when he also was rushing for 50-60 yards a game. He might be the player with the highest ADP difference when it comes down to PPR vs non PPR leagues.

His situation reminds me of Portis' a couple years back when he was banged up until the start of the season and then came out red hot...In my non ppr league last year, I think he was a top 12 back before he got hurt...I may target him as my RB2 this year, I think he may be worth a shot that he breaks out...

I've done about 5 mock drafts today for 10/12 teamers.

Reggie Bush is falling like a rock, I was able to draft him in the 10-team leagues in Round 9-11 and 12 teamers in Round 7-8. What insane value for a guy who is playing on one of the most explosive offenses in the league. If he can stay on the field and off the injury report he's virtually a lock every game for 80 yards combined rushing/receiving. Throw in the fact that if he plays 16 games he should be able to score 6-8TD's and you get near .5TD's per game.

11 Fantasy PPG average for a late round RB?

Sign me up.

If you are getting him in the 7-8th round, you really don't even need him for every game. He's probably your 3rd back.

Tremendous value is the player that is drafted low that will win you weeks by himself... 12 games a season from Bush probably translates to 8 games a high roto-production... totally great value in the 7th round or later.

This guy is in worst shape then I thought he was just from scrimmage today with the Texans and he's been spotted limping off the field I'm glad I took Pierre Thomas

Link please, Jon?

I got him in the 7th round, he's my third back.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpag...NFL&id=3600

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports...nt/6580200.html

I found it on this site but that's the source

I would gladly pick him up in the 7th round or later. He would be a great flex play in my league. I was actually thinking of targeting him somewhat this year.

Not knee-related or serious:

"Saints coach Sean Payton revealed that Reggie Bush was liming Thursday due to a slightly strained calf.

Payton said the injury was not serious and that Bush could have played if needed. While it's a relief that the injury was a knee flareup, the incident stands as a reminder that Bush comes with as much injury risk as any back in the league."

This is the prob. with mocks IMO. He CAN'T fall that far in a real draft, can he? In PPR, he should be NO worse than 4th round. In standard, I say no worse than 6th round....even if he just goes to the guy who took Pierre as a handcuff with upside.