Trying to get some more knowledgeable chitchat amongst rotoworlds best here, lets talk some d-rose preseason.


What do you guys think? The lose of Ben gordon, and no real assests to the team.

I think rose is going in the late third round this year, correct me if im wrong. I dont think it's worthy of that pick. I think hes a good player, but I really think once the bulls get whoever they get next year, he'll become a star.

I think he's 4th round pick ALTHOUGH I'm starting to see that alot of people are getting excited about drafting him so he might disappear somewhere in the 3rd... Which is a reach in my opinion...

he could probably become someone in the middle of a sophomore chris paul and a sophomore dwyane wade

Problem for Rose is that a huge part of Paul's value lies in his steals. With this particular comparison Wade had a better sophomore season with a gaudy 24-7-5-1.6 stl-1.1 blk year. I love Rose, but I'd say fantasy wise this would probably be an aim for a career year for him. Paul had a very nice 17-9-4-1.8 stl-.8 3's season. I think Rose could aspire to match Paul's numbers except probably come up short a bit in steals and assists and outdo him in points. The two best comparisons in the league right now would seem to be Deron Williams and Wade. I just don't think Rose has the intermediate game Wade does. Wade has never really been a 3-point shooter, but it's never been far out of his range. Wade regularly drains 18-20 footers. Rose just looks ucomfortable from that far out. I don't see him ever quite getting to where Wade is, but falling short of Wade is no failure by any means. The Williams comparison is more as a fantasy player. A guy that puts up + numbers from the PG position in points, but doesn't match them with gaudy 3PM totals.

I think he's going to be a "real-life" stud, but it's way too early to call him as a fantasy player. If he develops the range to hit a 3+ per and gets the steals in the 1.5 range, he may end up being a perennial first rounder. If not you almost will have to build your team around drafting a PG who doesn't really put up typical PG stats.

While its going to be hard to keep his assists high without Gordon, I think the combo with Salmons could work out nicely. He already knows how to get to the rack and as his game develops this season, I reckon he'll be a machine. While his FG% might take a small hit, his poise, balance and pure speed will increase his steals and his low TOs are a major bonus.

Just looking at his rookie year stats again gets me excited. I would easily take him in the third depending on how the first two picks went. Compared to other unreliable PGs in the mix at that stage of most drafts (for example, ESPN has Baron Davis right before Rose in their projections... wtf?) Rose has the potential to explode in his sophomore year and at worst, will be reliable. Heck, even if he has a bad year his points are going to increase and he will give you nice % and TOs. This is a lot more than can be said for some top 30 players who have proved to be fantasy duds in the recent past.

Tony Parker

Too many players that have proven themselves over the last few years for me to take Rose based on one season of work in the 4th. I'd consider him perhaps around the 6th or so.

Tony parker is the correct comparison. Rose should be a 5th or 6th round pick in my mind. He just doesnt steal the ball enough and/or make enough threes. He may score a bit more, but the TP has better fg%. Dimes will be somewhat similar. Im worried about Rose without Gordon to help the scoring load. After Salmons, I have very little confidence in anyone else to score the ball on that roster. And yes that includes Luol Deng aka the most overrated player in the NBA..

I'm still a believer in him, but if I'm wrong it wouldn't be the first time...

What do you see for stats?

18/19ppg-7.6apg-4rpg with 0.5 3pts on 2.2 attempts per game and about 1.3 steals per game

I'm a sucker for rooks/sophs which get a nod of approval from coaches for improving their game (news on his improved jumpshot leaves me drooling already)... I prefer pieces of news like these over injury prone guys like Caron, Arenas & T-Mac proclaiming they've found the fountain of youth and promise a full season...

Even if he puts up those numbers, that not 3rd round numbers. Those numbers aren't better then Joe Johnson or Nelson or hell even Mo Williams.

Tony Parker is a good comparison. As is Andre Miller.

I'm a believer in him but yes, those aren't 3rd round numbers... I don't understand why everyone is grabbing him this early... Even Durant didn't go this early last year... I don't think Parker & Dre Miller have the upside Rose has though...

First, they are better than Mo Williams numbers. Mo' is never going to have 7+ apg and while his FT% is higher, he has no chance to improve on last season whereas Rose has a chance to become something great. He still has Salmons, who played very well last year down the stretch with Chicago, there is the news of his improved jump shot and when you put that together with his speed and ability to get to the rack, why can't he average over 20ppg? I'm not saying its not a risk taking him in the third, it certainly is risky but its calculated given his age, proven durability last season and potential upside.

ALso, I don't think Parker is a good comparison given what each of their respective teams gives them (Duncan, Manu, RJ). Also Miller's stats will shift this year with Roy. Rose is the only guy on any of those teams in which he will be the guy which could be a big positive for his numbers but there is also a lot of pressure.

I still say until he steals the ball more and makes threes, he'll be worthy of a 5th round selection or so.

yes Mo williams will not get 7 assists, tho he did have 6.4 the years before last, but with James there I'll agree his days of getting 6+ assists are gone, but he shot 2.3 3's with 2.2 TO's

I would say Rose and Williams values are about the same. And comparing Rose to Miller and Parker isn't fair unless you draft Rose in the same range as Parker and Miller. Both Parker and Miller should be about 6th to 7th round picks. Williams is about a late 5th round pick while Rose is going early 4th late 3rd.

Entering the draft, they probably will have... But since Rose is a franchise PG, I'm confident he'll bump up his dimes and will surpass Mo-Will, Parker & Miller in terms of value. Franchise PGs always find a way to make someone better, kinda like how CP3 made Tyson & West better. I honestly think Rose is one of those special players that will need less time to prove naysayers wrong... I believe the reason why Rose's value shoots him up all the way to the 4th is based on pure upside...

Real life and fantasy worlds are two totally different worlds. Rose needs to show the 3 ball or a ton of steals to enter the elite range.

Going to have to agree with Denbo32 on this one. People are picking Rose in the 3rd-5th rounds right now ALREADY factoring in "upside." He was a 9th or 10th round talent last year! He should probably be picked in the 6th-7th but people are ignoring his weaknesses (TOs, 3s, steals) and generalizing that he is going to make big improvements across the board.

Unfortunately this means that, until he has established exactly what kind of fantasy player he is going to be, I have no shot at drafting him. But I welcome anyone in my leagues to burn a 3rd or 4th round pick on him. That would be peachy keen.

Being a bulls fan, rose is my favorite player in the NBA, but sadly, this is my thinking as well

I'll admit that a month ago I was buying into the Rose upside super hype, till I sat down and looked at the numbers.

the playoffs last season wowed me on how good Rose can be and is right now, but then it takes the calmer side of me to sit down and look at the numbers to see is he worthy of fantasy eliteness, and as of now he not. In real life sure, but fantasy he just isn't that good yet.

There are tons of players that are in that range Tony Parker, Deron Williams, Shaq, Dwight Howard.

Then there are tons of players that stink in real life, but put up fantasy lovely numbers like Jamison, Crawford.

It's the same thing that got Deron Williams over-drafted last year: the last impression is the lasting impression. In 2008 Deron averaged just 1.0 3pm during the season, but exploded in the playoffs to average 2.3 3pm. So come draft time for 2009, all everyone remembered was "Deron the 3pt bomber" from the playoffs, and not "Deron the average 3pm producer" from the regular season.

And during the 2009 season, he was right back to his old 1.0 3pm self. It'll be interesting to see if it happens again, as during the 2008 playoffs Deron's 3pm production again increased, this time to 1.8/game. In addition, his Stl also jumped to 1.8/game. Will people once again buy into "Deron the 3pt bomber" theory, as well as "Deron the ball-hawk"?


I've already seen something similar in a league this year, where Rondo was the first Celtics player taken. People remember the 17/10/10 w/2.5 stl guy he was for 14 games over the 12/5/8 w/1.9 stl guy he was for 80 games.


Incidentally, during the 2008 playoffs Deron's Stl dropped down to 0.6/game. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the people who thought Deron's 3pm production would stay at playoff levels simply brushed off that Stl stat, as if regression toward the mean only works in one direction. During the 2009 season Deron's Stl numbers were back to his usual 1.1/game.

I agree with Markdish when he says the value is accounting for his upside, its true. But I think its important to factor that in. Of course, any ranking is really dependent on the chemistry of the fantasy team and your overall strategy. I think in roto leagues, his weaknesses are too great, even with his potential upside, to draft above the 4th round but if your first three picks were stella, why not take the risk if it all adds up if thats your style? Again, different situation in H2H where I personally would take him higher as you can dump cats and structure your team differently.

The kid is obviously a superstar and it really depends on how much of his potential you think he will achieve this year on a slightly depleted Bulls roster. I'm a big believer, I admit it especially after Durant in his 2nd year (I know, different situations, but a lot of people waited on him and he blew everyone's mind away)

Did anyone get to catch the preseason game between the Bulls & Pacers? I watched the video recap at nba.com and saw that he nailed a jumper but he still only attempted one 3-ball so I'd like to see if he really did develop a jumpshot... I'm still considering taking him at the 4th but this could change if I'm convinced that he hasn't developed a good j...

i still think that 4 is too early to take rose.
he doesn't hit the 3 ball and he doesn't get you elite steals, or assists. i like mo williams better than rose, as well as aaron brooks (based on brooks value as a later pick).
i would let someone else to rose.
but i have been known to be wrong.

Awesome player in real life. One of my favorites to watch. The guy never stops attacking. I also had him in a 12 team league year last year and have, depending on match-up, benched him on 3 game weeks. He doesn't steal and doesn't shoot three's. As of last year, he's in the mold to becoming a better Tony Parker, who's game still doesn't translate well to fantasy. I'm not touching him before the 6th.

you guys do realize he was a rookie last year right? The guys you are comparing him to have been in the NBA for 5+ years. His upside is huge and the Bulls are designing their team in order to take advantage of his talent.

I'll admit I have a huge crush on him but there is no way I'd take him in the 20 or even early 30's but I am perfectly comfortable with reaching for him in the late 30's or early 40's if I need a pg, especially if its a keeper league.


This kid has got poise, crazy talent and thrives on the responsibility that is given to him. To me that is a recipe for over achieving.

Plus, I think he plays a lot more like Chris Paul than Tony Parker. I agree, it would be good if he hit the three, but if he did that, we'd probably be talking about him 10-15 picks higher.

Not that it really matters much, but last night in the Bulls VS Pacers pre-season game,
Derek Rose line was: 30mins, 17 pts, 3 asts, 3 rebs, 0 stls, 3 TOs. 8-13 FG, 1-3 FT. 0-1 treys.

I know it's just a preseason game, but it is suprising that his Assists were so low.

i understand what your saying... but i think i am taking the fact that he was a rook into account. If he was just going to do what he did last year, he'd be lower. as an aside, fantasy-wise, paul could always steal the ball, and shot (a few) more three's...
Rose had 17 and 6 last year, .8 stls and no 3's. I DO expect that to get better. It wouldn't surprise me if he had 20 and 7 next year. But I'd say we'd be lucky if his steals were to increase by .3, which is still well below average for a starting fantasy PG, and he won't hit any 3's this year either.
Personally, i think the guy is awesome, but i'm just saying his fantasy line is limited.

...ugh...20 and 7 is still great, i'm talking myself into it a bit. i suppose i'd take him in the 5th. i won't get him there tho either, so i guess it doesn't really matter.

I play in a league that counts A:TO ratio and doesn't count %s.

Rose is a top 20 player in this format (and I know there are owners out there that would be stupid enough to reach for him higher)

Still, I could see a 20ppg, 4.5rpg, 7apg, 1spg, 2.5TO/g season out of him

Low numbers considering he played 30 mins...

just wondering the people willing to draft rose in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th rounds where would you draft tony parker. andre miller. and mo williams?parker and miller I think are better fantasy basketball players then rose.

uh oh:

The problem is projecting his stats for next year. People have different opinions and too many people are overrating him.
Even if Rose performs at the level he did after the ASB (which I think is his ceiling this year) he will be ranked 50th. I don't think he should go earlier than that.

I would probably draft the guys you mentioned 5th round. You know what your getting with Parker, not so much with Miller. He is in a completely different system but if I had to predict I would say similar numbers from last year - I don't see Blake challenging him for minutes.

Of course it a guessing game, but we doing the best that we can. I doubt Rose will be better then Parker this year, yet I don't hear a single person saying they would draft Parker in the 2nd - 4th round.

All are draftable late 5th to late 6th imo. I think mo is a notch below Parker and Miller.........

I actually like Mo more then the other 2, but he is a totally different skill set. Mo actually shoots 3's while the other don't but his FG% take a bit of a hit compared to the other 2 and his assists are much lower.

For me, Mo's lack of dimes is not palatable. His assists may drop even further with Shaq there to muddle up the paint and hog the ball.

Yeah, I am not too high on Mo either. I see his 3PM dropping a bit this year as well - Anthony Parker is now their best 3 point shooter.

Im not sure I agree. Mo and Parker should both get plenty of good, quality looks from three from doubles on SHAQ and LBJ. I would imagine that Mo will make close to 2 per game and Parker 1.5. Why do you think Mo's threes drop with the potentially beneficial change in personnel?

You stating that he will make near two 3's/game is saying he will drop - he hit 2.3 last year. I see Mo hitting about 1.9-2 and AP hitting about 1.7-1.8.

AP's greatest strength is catching and shooting from the corner or baseline three. He will be playing off of the ball more in Cleveland and these shots will be more readily available, he had to play some back-up PG last year in Toronto and that hurt his fantasy status.
Over the last 3 years AP's three point FG% was .423% and that was playing on a poor to mediocre team.

3 games in 10.3/4/4.7 with .7 steals and 0 3's

small sample size and Rose is playing hurt, but not very good numbers. I'm glad I own Rose in 0 leagues this year.

I can only hope that Rose's early struggles is a result of that ankle injury plus missing the majority of preseason.

With Ben Gordon gone, I don't see why he can't reproduce the something close to the same success he has last postseason against Boston.

awful first week. between, rose, harris, evans, and ford, my pg position was doomed in week 1, but i know they'll all get better.

Just for the record I'll state it again in the Rose thread, even tho I'm sure I've said this before.

Rose will NOT put up top 50 number this year unless he adds a 3 point game or steals to his fantasy game.

I highly doubt he suddenly learned how to become a 3 point bomber, so steals would be his only way into the top 50. I guess the other way would be if he shot 55% from the field.

Doesn't everybody know this already??

Anyways, he is a player I like to have in the fantasy world. He will be over valued every year because he is much better in real life than in fantasy. He was reached on in my league and probably was in every other league.

I thought it was common knowledge.... but it appears there a cult that loves him. I agree his real life value to the Bulls is huge, and he is a star in the making. But that doesn't mean he a fantasy star.

I don't know it. Look around the NBA. Look at all the teams that have a clear cut franchise player. Not teams are merely renting a second best player until the best player comes around, but ones that believe the best player on their team is X and that he will be the best player on their team 5 years from now (or has been the best player for the last 5 years as the case may be).

Any of those guys not in the top 50?

Watching DRose is amazing, he is truly a gifted player. No doubt he is by far the best player on the Bulls and may be the best player there for the next 10 years.

This is where people go wrong though, he is MUCH better in real life than in fantasy. I can see him developing into a top 50 player in the near future but not this year. I don't see him stealing enough (only 1.2 in college, 0.8 last year) to be there... then there is the fact that he doesn't hit threes.