Hey Guys,

I think this guy might be a big surprise this year and a great value pick based on where he is going in drafts. I've been wondering what you guys think of LJ's outlook for this year. I know he's a headcase but he has reportedly been being a good soldier and working his but off in camp. We know what he is capable of and he is one of the last true feature backs in the league. He also has much less wear and tear on his body from the last two seasons, so his legs will be fresh. He had a solid 4.5 yard per carry average last year which most people don't realize. If he played all 16 games last year he would have easily had well over 1000 yards. I think he might be motivated with the new QB situation, coach and other team upgrades. He will come cheap in drafts and really has no one to push him for playing time in that backfield. So if you can get him on the cheap I think this is the year you take a shot on him. What do you guys think??

LJ is going to be a steal this year. Better QB, new OC, new GM, new coach.

Return to form or bust?

I think somewhere in the middle. I think he'll put up solid numbers and could be a steal where I've seen him drafted in mocks(5th) but he'll never return to his stud form.

I did my first league draft yesterday ...I got him in the 9th round (87th pick overall) so no matter what happens I'm on a free roll with him. I think he could be a potential beast if that garbage O-line and offense has improved at all, which it probably has. He somehow managed to average 4.5 yards a carry in that excuse for an O-line last year.

Bust and I really dont think i need to elaborate why.

Will be avoiding like the plague...he is D-O-N-E

No better motivator than a contract... I like him late...

Get him as your third RB and that is a quality dice roll.

Why don't you think you need to elaborate? ...The guy is 2 years removed from putting up 19 td's and 2200 yards. More like a year and a half considering he didn't play all of last year and the year before. His offense now has a real quarterback, new coach, new oc and a legit receiver or 2 now. Teams cant just stack the box anymore so he will have room to work with. Even when they were stacking the box and they didn't have these additions he managed to get his yardage. If the guy finally just shuts up and does his job (which it seems like he might be doing) I think you would foolish to write him off especially when the risk is so low this year. I always stayed away from him before because I never felt comfortable burning a high pick on him. This year he is a low risk high reward player who is almost gauranteed to get lot of touches so sign me up.

I would agree. I like LJ to put up 1300 total yds and 10 TDs.

If he is your RB3 your team is looking real good in my opinion.

I tend to agree. Jamaal Charles might well be a better fit for Haley's shotgun spread sets, and in a rebuilding year with a new coach, the emphasis is usually more on working the younger guys in than it is on getting the older overpaid guy his reps. If he holds on to the starting job, Johnson probably still has a little value in that you can play him when he's up against a truly awful defense like the Broncos, but I wouldn't want to be relying on him in any other situation. (Note: his not-embarrassing ypc last season was largely a function of a schedule swollen with such truly awful defenses.)

I can understand why people are somewhat skeptical of LJ (myself included) but I can't believe you would go as far as calling him D-O-N-E. He is one talented player and if he is healthy and motivated this year I would not be surprised to see him with double digit TDs and 1,2000 yards + rushing. The guy is a flat out beast when he wants to be and for anybody who has ever watched Kansas City - I'm sure you would agree. I'm rooting for a return to form.

To me this is a playing time question...Reports are that he has a positive attitude this year and his legs are fresh but that he may not be a perfect fit for KC's new spread offense. So at this point I don't know what to think...

If he gets 20 touches a game and GL carries, then I think he's a steal where he's being drafted now. But if he begins to be phased out for Jamaal Charles, then he could very well be a waste of a pick.

Any KC fans have insight on how they plan to use LJ?? How many touches a game will he get?? Will he get GL carries??

Charles has been injured through part of camp so he isn't doing himself any favors there. From what I've heard Charles may be used as the 3rd down back sometimes. I realistically don't see the Chiefs taking the ball away from LJ if he can still produce. Johnson is also the bigger body so I doubt his goal line touches are going anywhere soon. Overall, I don't view Charles as LJ's biggest threat ...I think LJ is his own biggest threat. If he has matured and has football on his mind for real I think anyone who drafts him late will be very happy with the returns.

Per Rotoworld...

The Chiefs' initial preseason depth chart lists Larry Johnson as the starting tailback, with Jackie Battle on the second team.
Jamaal Charles, who's put the ball on the ground too often in camp, is on the third string. Charles is much more talented than Battle and will move up quickly if he stops fumbling. He'll get that chance throughout preseason.

he is completely done. i wouldnt take him for in any round. keep him far away.

I think Johnson can put in another good year or two and I wouldn't mind having him as my 4th running back with his upside.

Yea, you said that before ...but I'm still waiting to hear what evidence are you basing that on? ...I know you don't like the guy (he's not my favorite player by any means either) but just saying he's done because you dislike him doesn't mean its the truth. And saying you wouldn't take him in any round hammers home the point that you are basing this opinion on your views of the guys character and not his actual ability, situation or fantasy production potential. Because we all know he has enough upside over many of the players most teams draft in the last few rounds.

This is the exact reason why he has value this year and that he interests me. A lot of other owners like you just despise the guy and let that get in the way of his what his true value is. I don't care what player you are, like him or not ...if I can get them cheaper than I really should be able to in a draft and they can be a potential big positive impact my fantasy team then I'm all for it. I just want to win its not a popularity contest to me heh.

Scott just post comments just to post. LJ will be a decent RB2 this year.

Most Runningbacks abused as much as he was never recover, he missed 8 games 2 years ago, 4 games last year, his YPA is well down from his breakout form in 05, and now he's approaching 30. I haven't looked at his ADP, but I wouldn't take him as anything more then my 3rd RB.

I'm not drafting him as my RB2 but I wouldn't be surprised if he can meet and exceed that RB2 status. He's a good pick this year because you can draft him as an RB3 or even 4 and he has the potential to be an RB1. I don't know exactly what his ADP is but I got him with the 87th overall pick in my league.

Actually his YPA was higher last year than it was in his last beast year (2006). He averaged 4.3 a carry in 2006. Last year LJ averaged 4.5 a carry. I think people also overestimate how much abuse this guys body has actually taken. If you look at his career starts here is what it breaks down to...

He's only played 68 career games in a 6 or 7 year span and rushed 1243 times total. If you look at a guy like LT with a 127 games under his belt and 2657 carries over 9 years if anything LT is more likely to break down yet people have no problem drafting him the first round. Another interesting stat ...LJ's (4.5ypc 9.3ypr) career rushing/receptions averages are actually higher than LT's (4.4ypc 7.5ypr).

I love LJ at his ADP this year, a lot of owners have marked him down for dead and in a lot of mock drafts I've seen him go anywhere from 60-90 in terms of pick position. If you can snag up LJ in the 6th-8th round with your team already established and stick him in your flex spot or run him out as your #2RB if you went early WR/QB you'll be golden. He's going to really surprise people this year, like posters stated above his mind is right, offensive line has improved, and has a better QB. I'm fully expecting 1000+ yards and +8TD, he's still big enough to get a lot of goal line carries and what does KC have inside the 5-yard line besides a fade route to Dwayne Bowe?

Like I said, if you went RB 1st round and then stock up on big name WR/QB's - LJ should more than suffice as a weak #2RB in the middle rounds. I personally have targeted him in my 10-teamer money league for my WR/RB flex, he's goign to produce quite a bit better than guys at that ADP (Lendale, Ward, McFadden).

I love him this yr... dont ask me why lol.... just have a hunch

LJ is what you're looking for at his ADP, somebody with a high ceiling who you don't have to rely on to carry your team. I think Charles is always looming to take touches away, but what has that guy really done? He seems to have a hard time holding onto the ball and is injured alot. I think LJ can produce quality numbers for a RB3 with 15 touches a game. Plus he gets to play Denver twice, so there's at least 300 yards and 4 touchdowns between those two games there

the reason why i wouldnt draft him in any league or any round is because hes been in decline for years and id rather have players with upside. u cant win with those players. What is he considered, a RB 2?? I would never expect any consistency out of him to warrent a RB2 spot each week, or even a spot start. His decline is evident. In that offense, its even worse. They will pass a lot this year just as last year, so therefore he holds no real value. Every year he gets drafted high in drafts. I think his ADP was around the 2nd-3rd round last year. That was too high. Im not sure what his adp is so far this year, but im sure its too high as well. the reason why i dont really need to explain why hes not worth drafting, is because of this combination: someone will always think he has something left, when he clearly is getting worse each year, and they will pick him higher than he should anyway. Even if he did fall, i still wouldnt pick him. Every year there are guys that i avoid drafting, I think everyone has this list. He was not worth drafting last year. This year his stock is just as, or even lower this year.

He has no upside in my mind. He has so many risks its unbelievable that anyone sees value in my mind: Hes a declining, heavy workload back with a lot of wear. His role in the offense has declined each year. His skills are based around wearing down defenses with a high amount of carry totals which he again will not receive this year in that offense. The offense is not expected to be good enough to give him a high amount of goal line carries, considering he still has that role. they are not expected to have a good defense so they will be passing more than not, and he doenst play passing downs so he has no catching abilitiy and doenst play 3rd down. Hes an older running back - something everyone should be afaid of breakdown/injury, and hes looked slow and old in previous years, and he does this year in training camp. The offensive line is not improved, or if you think it is, it is still no where near the dominant form of LJs hayday back int the early to mid 2000s, that was the best line of its day by far.

The only thing he has working for him is that he has no real compitition this year, but that didnt seem to matter last year did it. He was pretty worthless, and he will be again this year.

So, Im expecting that u magically think he will return to 2006 form. thats just idiotic. just because he was good 3 yrs ago doesnt mean anything. I dont see how anyone can expect a big year from him. Hes a wasted draft pick who has a chance of being outscored by his 3rd down RB counterpart.

Did you happen to catch any KC games last year? They trotted out Tyler Thigpen and one of the worst offensive lines I have ever seen. Larry Johnson was running against 8 and sometimes even 9 man fronts and he STILL churned out 4.5YPC (HIGHER than his 4.3YPC in his amazing 06-07 season behind one of the better o-lines the league has ever seen). What part of last year spells decline for you? I'd imagine any top level RB would struggle under those circumstances. I had Larry Johnson last year and he burned me bad, threw a 2nd round pick out at him and he did not produce for me (who didn't see it coming?) and I'm guessing plenty of owners have him on their "never draft again list". This is the reason that he becomes so valuable this year...he had a terrible season in 08 and now you can snag him in the 6TH-8TH round in most standard sized leagues. The pieces in KC are quite a bit better starting with Cassel vs Thigpen, the offensive line is healthy and upgraded, and Larry Johnson has a better attitude in training camp. Throw in the fact that Jamaal Charles is struggling badly it looks like LJ will be getting the bulk of the carries and almost all the goal-line opportunities.

Maybe it's just me, but I don't care what team a RB is on if he gets 70% of the carries and all the goal line carries and you can get that running back in 7th Round...THAT IS A STEAL!

Even if Larry Johnson repeats his "horrendous" 2008 season, if you average out his numbers over 16 games he finishes with 1164 rushing yards on 258 rushing attempts and 6TDS.

I think at the BARE MINIMUM this season (barring injury) Larry Johnson runs for 1000 yards, catches 200 yards, and scores 8TDs...what other 6th-8th round RB has a floor like that? None.

Good. I hope every draft im in someone feels this way. Every year there are believers. So i guess i should be suprised to see this.

It's almost a fantasy football travesty not to draft a RB that slips into the middle-rounds no matter what team he is on if he is getting the bulk of the carries and the goal line touches.

That means Cedric Benson is worth a 9th round pick too...

My guess: you drafted LJ last year. Tough Luck. I have the same issue with Reggie Bush...but would still take him in round 6 if I see him on the board.

Thats exactly my point, I drafted LJ last year as well and got burned (DeAngelo relieved some of the stinging) but all that means is it puts you in a significant position to prosper the next season. All signs point to a boost in productivity for LJ this season and he will be avoided like the plague on draft day at his current ADP (around 50 in Yahoo! leagues). Believe it or not, word gets around as to why your team is struggling and most any owner will know which players killed their opposition in the previous season.

All fantasy football drafting consists of is getting the best projected value for price and Larry Johnson is honestly being put on the clearance isle while he can still produce as a #2RB next season. Even if what I say ends up being completely wrong and all the positive signs were just fools gold, he's still going to churn out 800 yards from scrimmage and 5 touchdowns.
That's a back up RB numbers in the 6th round when all of his projections went south!

quite the opposite, i acutally traded him for Andre Johnson last year before the season started (yea i know, wow) so im happy that ppl still saw value in him enough to trade a WR1 for him. I think its funny that just because I downgrade a player, im automatically a "jaded" past owner when thats obviously not true. i didnt have him in any league last year. I assess every player the same each year and LJ hasnt done anything in two years. in rb terms, thats "must avoid" in my book. just because he increased his ypc by .2 in a gymmic offense last year doesnt mean much to me. dont get me wrong, i liked him when he was good, heck i won a league based solely on him in 2005 and his monster playoff streach run in a redraft league, so if anything i should be biased for him. I just dont think he has anything left and, as u can see from my response above, carries considerable risk for a guy that would still go too him for my taste in round 9-11, when i could just get a better flier.

I highly doubt there's going to be anyone more valuable as a flier in the 11th round, but then again he won't be available so you're definitely right that you won't take him in any round.

I love LJ where he's going and having him as a RB 3 and 4 is awesome. I too think he could produce #2 numbers and maybe even rb 1 numbers. That's s stretch but #2 is very possible in my opinion.

Maybe a little off topic, but what leagues are you in where starting RB's are going in the 11th round? I did some quick looks and haven't seen Johnson fall anywhere near these spots. The rotoworld expert mock draft has him in the 6th round. Not really a fan of Johnson, but I think if you are waiting to get him in rounds 9-11 seems far-fetched.

none. thats why i would never draft him. his draft slot is always higher than his value imo.

I don't know if this is the norm or not but I did a real draft a couple of days ago (10 teamer/H2H/non PPR/redraft) and was able to get him in the middle of round 9. We start QB.WR.WR.WR.RB.RB.TE.K.DEF ...We don't start a flex which is why he maybe lasted longer than he typically would. Either way, I still think he's a good middle round (6ish 7ish) value pick, because I'm sure in most drafts he will passed over quite a bit due to people who just flat out despise him. In all likelyhood noone or very few will reach for him and he will probably be picked later than his actual player profile warrants. So in most cases you should be able to get him later than his actual value dictates. I don't think anyone was actually saying they got him in round 11 I think someone was just trying to illustrate his value in comparison with the later round player pool types in another post.

Do you guys remember in 04' when Tiki and Curtis Martin were late round fliers? and both happened to be in the top 5 at year end...I think this year there will be a couple backs who produce similarly...Not saying it will definitely be LJ, but there has never been better RB2 value this late in a draft before...

I really like LJ this year, he could produce 200+ pts in a standard scoring league, that is definitely reasonable to assume...

Yeah seems about right for that kind of league. In 10 teamers where you can only start 2 RBs but have to start 3 WRs you tend to see backs like LJ go later than usual. In my 12 team league with a flex spot I doubt he'll get out of the 5th round, but I still think he's pretty good value there.

Per Rotoworld

"Larry Johnson is reportedly showing speed and explosiveness after arriving at camp 13 pounds lighter this season.
It's a smart move by LJ, especially with the Todd Haley Chiefs keeping a spread-heavy offense as opposed to Herman Edwards' grind-it-out attack. With Jamaal Charles handling passing-down duties, LJ isn't in danger of receiving a heavy workload."

Here are the reasons I think LJ has a good year:

1) Cassell is a better QB than Thigpen.
2) No more Edwards/LJ controversy.
3) New coach who had great success as OC for Arizona Cardinals albeit with great talent.

Response:

1) Not sure about that - they were both impressive in their brief time at the helm
2) The controversy really didn't limit LJ's reps - his poor, ineffective play did
3) New coach who had great success as OC for Arizona Cardinals albeit with a consistently pathetic/nonexistent running game

I'll second every one of those.

1. I agree that Cassel has a ways to go to prove worthy... NE's coaching system is far superior and the players are far more disciplined than KC's... shoot Brodie Croyle might have something to say while everyone is focused on the other two.

2. I would say the poor, ineffective play of the defense is what limited LJ's reps. You don't run when you are losing every game. LJ, for the record, averaged 4.5 YPC last season... that's pretty good considering the O-Line was atrocious. He did have 874 yards in basically 12 games (he had 7 carries for 2 yards in the game he went down).

3. The Cards had the WR weapons and didn't need to run... the Chiefs do not have the WR weapons and they'll need to run.


LJ seems to be practicing like an adult this pre-season... he's motivated for that next contract (if he can get one) and he's buying into the system... Jamaal Charles is not threat to the workhorse end of this committee... LJ should be solid enough to post RB2 lite numbers.

I'm buying him anywhere above the 6th. I just do not see the Chiefs handing Jamal Charles a significant workload no matter how good he is.


I think LJ will prove to be a solid RB2 by years end.

Being behind in every game does abandon the run. Also, LJ was in Edwards doghouse for most of last season due to his lack of touches and attitude because of it. Not having that Edwards/LJ strained relationship present will only help him.

Plus his playoff schedule is pretty sweet:


14 Sun, Dec 13 Buffalo 1:00 pm
15 Sun, Dec 20 Cleveland 1:00 pm
16 Sun, Dec 27 at Cincinnati 1:00 pm
17 Sun, Jan 3 at Denver 4:15 pm

I would love to play in a league where starting RBs can be had after round 5 or 6. Bunch of suckers. Sorry folks, in almost any format, RBs are like gold. There are only 32 starters. Throw out the teams with definite committees, and you only have about 25 featured backs. These are not "flier" picks. These are NFL starting RBs. They should all be taken in the top 50 or so. Even if you don't like LJ, you gotta understand his value.

The question is when a situation like Lendale White vs. LJ arises... who would you choose? (standard league)

Completely agreed. If I was down in between LJ and Rodgers/Warner, I'm taking LJ and grabbing Ryan or Palmer 2 rounds later. I will be happy to grab him in the early 5th.

Totally disagree with #2 - classic case of stats being deceiving. He had one absolute blow-up game last year that inflated those numbers. LJ was completely ineffective at the goal line last year, which originated the Charles speculation in the first place.

As to #3 - The Cards pass because they can't run. My grandmother should be able to average more than 2-point-whatever with that dynamic pasing game in play. The Cards made chumps out of Th. Jones and Edge - but naturally we're supposed to believe that Hightower sucks. Not buyin' it...LJ will be facing 8-man fronts from the get-go - it's up to Cassell to change that, and LJ is ineffectual - as most backs are - against stacked defenses. By the way - the Chiefs' line is absolutely suspect if you need them.

That said - would I take LJ? Yes - but not in the 5th. He'd have to be available in the 7th-8th before I'd take him.

I love when people say "take out his one great game". C'mon now! How bout take out one of his awful games and YPC would be above 5.0

I bet you're singing a different tune when it happens to you. One good game all season? Go for it.