it seems like the hype on him has faded so much over the past two years. i think he could be a good bargain this year if nate mcmillan starts giving him real starters minutes. if you average his stats last season over 32 minutes (he got 21 mpg last season) he would average 13.7 points, 10.7 boards, and 1.7 blocks, not to mention his great field goal percentage. whats your take on Oden this season?

You hear a lot about post-hype sleepers in baseball circles more than basketball, but Oden certainly fits the bill. All reports are great this offseason, and people are saying he has athleticism and explosiveness that he hasn't had since he entered the league. People who are calling out "bust!" after a missed season and an injury-hampered one are going to be eating their words by the end of the season. He's definitely a guy to target in the late rounds of your draft, and is obviously an extremely good option in dynasty leagues. There is some risk involved with Oden, but if he goes in the 10th round, how much risk is there?

Oden next year 11.5ppg-9.5rpg-2.1 blocks-55% fgs

Hopefully he stays away from injuries and foul trouble. In the 10th or 11th round he could be an absolute steal.

I got no clue what type of numbers he able to put up, but the important stat will be games played.

I still got my faith in the kid... I don't expect him to be the next franchise center that everyone was hyped out for (which is kind of a bummer coz Portland passed on Durant) but if he can generate numbers like those, he'd still be a threat in the inside...

Statistically, however, I'm not expecting a massive jump but those would be serviceable in late rounds...

What kind of faith is that then? so you saying he won't be a total bust like Kwame, but just a sorta bust like Joe Smith?

I don't know that Greg Oden is capable of playing 32 minutes per game.

He averaged 6.5 fouls per 36 minutes last year!!!

With his propensity for fouling and injury, he'll be lucky to play 28 minutes per game. He can still be productive in those minutes, though.

I think he can still be a major game changer... Not like Joe Smith's level but nowhere near Shaq or David Robinson... Faith to reach Okafor numbers... Maybe slightly better...

That's a very valid concern, and I think the hope is that his finally regained athleticism will allow him to foul a little bit less. He's not as guaranteed as a few of the other centers who may be available late on drafts, but he's got high upside. In general, personal fouls are some of the hardest numbers to predict on a per-minute scale. Most bench players don't mind fouling three times in their 18 minutes a game, but everyone wants to avoid that fifth or sixth foul . Starters who are critical to their team's success and know they may need to play 36 minutes or more learn to be more disciplined defensively and not attempt unnecessarily risky plays. For example, look at Paul Millsap's per-36 splits throughout his career. In his first two years, when he almost never started, and averaged 18 and then 20.8 mpg, he averaged 5.9 and then 5.8 fouls per 36. In 38 starts in his third year, though, he managed to cut that number down to a much more manageable 4.2 fouls per 36. In his 38 appearances off the bench that same year, even though most of them came late in the year after Boozer's return, that number reverted back up to 5.0 fouls per 36. In short, if Oden is given the green light to start and play close to 36 minutes, he will play with more discipline and should manage to stay on the floor for as long as McMillan will let him. This may result in a lower block rate (it did for Millsap) , but owners will gladly take it if he's giving them a double-double with perhaps 1.5 blocks instead of 2, along with a shooting percentage above 55%.

I, on the other hand, have zero-to-little faith in Greg Oden.
His knee problems are serious. The man missed the entire season of '07-'08, to rest his surgically repaired knee.
And he still had problems when he finally did play last season. The injury concern is always gonna be there his whole career.

His stats were so inconsistent last year. One game he'll do 11/10, then the next game he does 3/4, then he'll miss 4 games, etc.
I wouldn't want to deal with that headache. Especially since there are more reliable players in this league who can put up his type of numbers, on a more consistent basis.

I'm not trying to say whether he's a bust or not, but his bum knees have completely limited his potential. he's definitely not a franchise player and never will be. if he's healthy, he's a decent defensive presence. But i don't see too many Centers having much trouble going up against him. Shaq, Bynum... they have no problem going right thru Oden. And Oden's own stubbornness(or stupidity) is gonna lead to him picking up a lot of fouls. and maybe re-injure a kneecap while he's at it.

And in response to all the positive words coming out of the Portland camp about how Oden looks great and is playing at 100% right now in summer leagues. That's all hype. 1 game does not make a season. 1 summer league game does not make a season. infact 4 summer league games do not make a season.
Sure, let's say he actually did play very good in a couple of games. But the question is... Can he sustain it for a whole season? Can his body hold up for that long? I personally don't think he can.
The Blazers obviously aren't gonna say things that would devalue one of their players' stock. The Poker Face tactic. Infact, with all the hype coming out of their camp, i wouldn't be surprised if it all serves as part of some strategic plan to trade Oden for someone else more durable, reliable, consistent. Like a certain Knick, perhaps.

bottomline... limit your expectations on this kid. he's gonna miss about 20 games. he's gonna play like crap in about 40 games. but he'll do pretty good in about 20 games.
Is it worth 8.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.1 block?
And as a fantasy owner, you're not gonna depend on him for Points. He's never gonna average more than 11 points in his career. I'd be surprised if he'd be able to average more than 8 rebounds. He might be able to boost his blocks up to 1.5 - 2.0.

If you're gonna draft this guy, i wouldn't waste anything before a 10th pick on him. Probably an 11th-13th pick.

I have to disagree with TR here. For one thing, the hype isn't just coming from the Blazers camp based on summer league games, it's coming from just about everyone who saw him at the Team USA minicamp, including a number of scouts and executives from around the league, as well as several coaches and players. The Greg Oden most of us remember seeing over the past two years was sluggish, had a face that made him look 40 and played like he was 40, too. This year, he's playing like a 21-year-old should. He'll be a very good late-round pickup.

What the eff, I agree with TR...

i dont doubt that he's capable of putting up those numbers, but will he have the chance?

guess what... i was thinking about saying a better pick would be Chris Andersen.
(but i left that out because i knew he was on your team. lol)

Actually I thought he was overrated in college, so even if his body is able to hold up for a full 82 game season I don't see much value in him except maybe blocks.

I'm sure Portland is going to love seeing another superstar they passed up tear up the league for the next 10 years...

Joe Smith put up 15/9 with 2 blk as a rookie, and 18/9 with 1 blk as a soph. Oden might be able to reach those numbers if 5 Blazers all tear their ACLs tomorrow.

By the time most fantasy drafts are going, he's not going to be any sort of deep sleeper. I doubt he'll be available in the 10th round. As to whether he's worth a 10th rounder - he's a guaranteed starting center with real upside, of course he's worth a 10th round flier!

He won't be going that late, though.

C'mon now, Bynum isn't going thru ANYONE

I still have some faith in him but TR's concerns are totally valid. Even aside from the injuries I'm really wary of the foul thing...he should have figured that out during the second half of the season last year but never did. I'd feel fine about spending an 11th round pick on him.

Actually, it's pretty common for big men to be foul prone in their 1st seasons but in there 2nd seasons the fouls per minute goes down. Bogut, in his rookie season, averaged 4.0 per 36 minutes but cut that down to 3.4 in his second season and the trend continued and he was able to be alot more productive. If Greg Oden stays healthy and he gets comfortable with the refs and they get comfortable with him...he will be a steal in the later rounds. His issue has been health and fouls fix that and you have a very productive player with plenty of upside.

Anderson Varejao used to have a foul problem he averaged 14.3 fouls per 100 minutes! As a consequence he only averaged about 19 minutes a game. That was 2 years ago he's a more productive player now that he can actually stay on the floor for more than 19 minutes.

We should treat Oden like we should have treated Kmawe - allowed him to flourish without all the attention. His low self-esteem will be the reason he never reaches his full potential. I think his ceiling is Greg Ostergish/Erica Dampierish!!!

if i can draft him after the 19th round, i will. if not, i'm not going anywhere near him.

From Rotoworld:

Greg Oden has had a good summer and is looking forward to breaking out in his second NBA season.
"Everybody comes in and has that first year, that get-used-to-the-league year," he said. "But you have to break out in your second year. You have to, and that's what I'm looking forward to." This is technically Oden's third year in the league, but he didn't play in his rookie season after right knee surgery. He also has to have a good season to guarantee the Blazers pick up the fourth-year option on his contract.

Sounds good to me, especially considering I'm a Blazer fan... Greg Oden hi-5 to all the Blazer fans!

As for me and the rest of the basketball world "actions will speak louder than [preseason] words."

where u guys see this guy going this year? he seems ready to contribute. i'm guessing he goes after Kaman type player.

Should be able to get him with a 11th or 12th round pick.

Oden or bogut this year?

Probably Oden just because Bogut is a lot older, and Oden has much more upside. Oh, and Bogut has chronic back issues. Ouch.

is Oden worth an 8th round pick in a h2h 12 team? i think it's a gamble considering there are still talents in that round, but i think he has worked considerably hard this season on his offensive game.

im gonna try n get him 9-10th round

i took him in the 7th round on my draft, although my league is 14 teams deep. i got him at 94th overall.

I reached for him in the 6th (66th). The 13th C taken (Howard, Jefferson, Lopez, Okafor, Biedrins, Bynum*, Horford, Nene, Noah, Bargnani, Camby, Shaq). I don't think I reached too much because we use 2 C's and CBS doesn't give out C eligibility to just anyone (No dual eligibility in our league). The next C's off the board were Bogut, Okur, Hawes, Perkins. I did draft Marc Gasol and Channing Frye just in case Oden goes down or severely disappoints. All told I'm pretty happy with him right now. Expecting a good year.

*My other C

man, i do not trust Oden at all.

it makes me cringe to read how you guys have "reached" for Oden so early.

i can almost guarantee you he's gonna bust a knee-cap again this season. atleast twice.

I think he belongs in the Bogut/Jermaine O'Neal/Marc Gasol group in the 8th-10th round. I probably like him the best of those guys but I wouldn't take him before the 8th, ever.

sure, you guys might be all amped up seeing his impressive lines in the preseason.
it's obvious he's making an effort to produce big numbers.
you can cheer him on if you want.
but to me, seeing this big lines and big effort from him, tell me there's a big injury waiting to happen.

oden is probably the player im most excited about this season on my team.

Why you gotta name 2 of my centers there

Sorry, but did you say Okur went after Oden? you made a mistake there.

Okur AFTER Oden, Shaq, and Bogut is a CRIME. Oden should only break top 80 in keeper leagues.

Whoever picked up Okur after Shaq AND Oden just committed highway robbery...

However, that said, I'm still high on Greg Oden...

I got Oden in the ninth round of a twelve-team league at pick 106, and after hearing Doctor A report on him going #50-60something in his two drafts, this felt like a steal. Of course, it all remains to be seen, but I like not having to burn a seventh round pick on his creaky-knees. Ninth round is more to my liking.

I got him at pick 90 as my #1 center (we start only 1) and this was after many runs on center. I got a bunch of PF though so maybe one will get C eligibilty soon. Hopefully Oden can last a month this time

I should probably clarify a bit. I needed Oden's stats more than Okur's. I was set at 3's (Okur's best value) and needed Oden's rebounds, blocks and FG%. We also use FT made instead of FT% and don't count TO's so that skews toward Oden also. So I don't think it's as big a travesty as you're all making it out to be. Plus I see somewhat of a down year from Okur, at least to start. The Jazz will almost certainly be featuring Boozer to up his trade value and they just handed out a big contract to Millsap so he's gonna play a bigger role. Whereas I see Oden's role/minutes expanding from last year. We'll see if I made a mistake, but I just played a hunch I guess.

And I realize pre-season stats aren't much to go by but Oden is outplaying Okur in the preseason.

Greg Oden will not play in Tuesday's exhibition against the Jazz.

Oden did not practice Monday and is still nursing a bruised adductor in his inner thigh. He has played well this preaseason, and the injury is not expected to be serious, but fantasy owners must be wary. We recommend keeping a more reliable, less injury-prone center on the roster, just in case Oden's latest injury lingers.

let the injuries begin!

i was/am seriously thinking about picking up Joel Pryzbilla if the Big G.O. is a no go more often than not, this season.

Oden was named the starter for the season opener. What's everyone's opinion on his projected stats?

Presuming he can stay healthy (which is a big question), I think 14-10 and 2 blocks is reasonable. With Roy being unselfish and LMA being the only other scoring option, i think Oden can be very productive. And since LMA ( a weak rebounder) is the power forward there will be plenty of Rebounds for Oden to grab. He has the size and athletic ability to be a force.

He will probably go down in the first half. I own him too so it is my fault for drafting a young guy with the face of a 40 year old

Yeah that's true he looks like he grew pubes at the age of 6. Looks like he's granddaddy when he plays.

TO machine so far

zero points, 5 TOs

is it possible he averages more rebounds than points this year? hes already -9 in points. could he average like 8 pts and 10 boards?